1. Malakand exodus.


WHILE the military operation has put militants on the back foot and seemingly reduced their capacity to launch attacks inside the country, it has led to a flood of displaced persons seeking shelter outside Malakand Division. The exodus from Dir, Swat, Malakand and Buner constitutes the largest internal displacement of population since 1947. Earlier military operations conducted since August last had displaced nearly six lakh people. With fresh migrations from the present area of conflict the total tally is likely to exceed 15 lakh. The question being widely asked is whether the government possesses the ability to cope with the situation.
Lack of planning by the federal and provincial governments has added to the people's suffering. No contingency plan seems to have been put in place before launching the operation. Absence of coordination between the civilian government and the military is visible all around. Nothing has been done to deal with the consequences of the military action, including an orderly transfer of the affected population from the zone of conflict. With scant private transport available and forced to utilize breaks in the curfew imposed all over Malakand Division, the exhausted and bedraggled people have been forced to travel on bus rooftops, hitch rides on the holds of container trucks, or walk on foot. With the curfew breaks ending, they get stranded in places where no food or shelter is available. Most have left their belongings behind. Thousands of people caught in cross fire suffer from injuries. There is a large number of women, children and old men among them. What is more, many more people are bound to become homeless in days to come as the operation is extended to the rest of the Taliban controlled areas. The way the camps meant for the IDPs are being run amply indicates a lack of forward thinking. They are invariably short of staff. Tired and shocked refugees are required to queue up for hours in the sun for registration. On Saturday, bad management led to disorder in a camp in Mardan where displaced persons looted UN supplies The nearly 80 member federal cabinet has been able to raise on its own a sum of Rs. 20 crore worth of contribution which could only have a symbolic significance in view of the scale of the migration. How it intends to mobilize local and foreign resources commensurate with the challenge remains to be seen. The government has to fulfill its responsibilities if it wants to avoid a humanitarian tragedy that would lead to two unhappy consequences. First, the extremists could use the government's lapses to recruit hundreds of sympathizers from among the disaffected victims. Second the government will face a severe political backlash if its performance was not considered to be up to the mark.



2. Tensions in Sindh.


THE MQM-PPP partnership in running the affairs of the state, whether at the Centre or in the Sindh province, has not been free from hiccups. Last March, the MQM threatened to part company with the PPP-led governments if action was not taken against those who had used 'abusive' language against it during the long march. Later, it boycotted the Parliament when the Swat peace deal came up for endorsement.
The latest cause of its dissatisfaction is the situation in Karachi where the changing ethnic mix has aggravated the existing tension between the ANP, also a member of the ruling coalition, and the MQM. Quite a number of refugees displaced from Malakand Division and FATA have moved to the city to live, and perhaps settle, with their relatives making Karachi arguably the largest Pushtun town in Pakistan. Recent clashes between the two sides' activists and the strike call followed by the Sindh government's declaration of holiday on May 12 have served as the trigger, prompting the MQM Coordination Committee to threaten to quit the governments in Sindh and the Centre unless action was taken against the ANP. In the process, it has also levelled serious accusations against high PPP officials of supporting the ANP's "land grabbers, drug runners and arms dealers". Reportedly, at a recent meeting between President Asif Zardari and MQM chief Altaf Hussain this issue was raised, but the MQM complains that Mr Zardari has failed to put an end to these illegal activities despite his commitment to do so.
One would expect the government to quickly take stock of these tensions and find a way to amicably unwind them in the interest of peace and harmony in the most populous and largest industrial and commercial centre of the country. Any aggravation of these ethnic tensions would further complicate the already critical situation through which Pakistan is passing. Removal of genuine grievances and forging reconciliation between these groups should take priority.

1. IRI ratings.


THE soundings of public opinion in Pakistan on a wide variety of issues conducted by the US-based International Republican Institute generally go to confirm the common feeling in the country. The survey gave the support of 75 percent of the population to PML(N)’s Mian Nawaz Sharif, followed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry (54 percent), Prime Minister Gilani (33 percent) and COAS General Kayani (30 percent). President Zardari brought up the rear having a paltry 19 percent backing.
Mr Zardari’s image could not possibly improve if he is perceived to be indifferent to the people’s problems and stays abroad for long periods while the country fights, what the world terms as a battle for survival. While to the casualties resulting from the military operation against militants raging at full blast has been added the human misery of exodus from Malakand Division, with the number of internally displaced persons likely to touch one million, the President has chosen to extend the already pretty long visit to the US and added some European countries in the itinerary. Conversely, the espousal of popular causes keeps Mian Nawaz in the top slot; he actually was able to garner more points than previously as ‘sympathy’ vote following the Dogar Supreme Court disqualifying him for holding any office. The gap between Mr Zardari and Mr Gilani is obviously due to the impression that the Prime Minister feels more for the people’s causes than the President. Chief Justice Chaudhry maintains a good ranking, which would certainly go up if he were to deliver on weeding corrupt practices out of the judiciary and expedite the court verdict on the various types of cases, as he has promised. Somehow, economic prospects have inspired greater optimism, perhaps occasioned by donor agencies’ favourable response. The militants’ words and deeds, after the Swat peace deal had been concluded, exposed their actual designs and served as an eye-opener to the people, and 49 percent of them backed military operation against them, which the IRI survey maintains is an all-time high figure. But that did not significantly raise the ratings of COAS General Ashfaq Kayani, who was favoured by 30 percent against the finding in the previous polls of 26 percent. The sentiment against rule by the army and preference for democratic order was also reflected in the context of providing a stable and prosperous Pakistan, with 77 percent going in for a democratic system of governance against a mere 20 percent for the military option. That augurs well for democracy as well as the country.



2. Economic scenario.


IN relative terms, one does not know where to peg Pakistan’s performance on the inflation front. On the one hand, we have been seeing a decrease in the inflation statistics, but on the other hand, we are not doing as well in fighting the price hike as the other economies in the region. India is doing particularly well at curbing inflation while Thailand is doing even better. It was a consequence of the first comparison, in which we are doing slightly well, that the government decided to loosen up a bit its tight monetary policy. It lowered, much to the derision to the IMF it is assumed, the interest rates. The financial sector obviously welcomed this development as it would ease credit provision in the country. This, it is hoped, would spur growth in the economy.
Figuring out the extent to which this interest rate drop would have spurred economic growth, as all economists know, is rather tough. There is too much noise and too many different interacting variables in the whole mesh to isolate the effect of this change. A lot of the trouble here lies in knowing where to look. Half-empty types would point out to plummeting auto sales, which fell by 47 per cent in 10 months. But there might be other ways to assess that slump. Car sales are dropping the world over. And the consumer-led growth that our economy had been seeing in the Shaukat Aziz regime had led to a tad too many cars plying the roads. If we were to measure things in terms of percentage change, perhaps the number of cars on the roads is going to a normal level. That is not too bad a proposition given the infrastructure that we currently have. Falling share volume on our bourses, although never a good sign, is not necessarily the end of the world finance types allege. Our stock markets are not that integrated into the economy to serve as an effective barometer of economic activity.
Any talk about economic mismanagement has to first consider the military strife in the country. These are not conditions conducive to economic growth. But economic managers have to play the hand that they have been dealt with.


3. Deceptive aid.


IT is quite surprising to learn that out of $1.9 billion of the US aid, almost half would be spent on enhancing the security of US embassy and consulates in Pakistan. This belies the common impression given by the American leadership that the sum is directed at strengthening the country’s economy. It sounds pretty devious. Pakistan is in desperate need of capital for the provision of basic services like education and health, especially in the restive region. Helping Pakistan build its economy would result in more effectively rooting out militancy. As it is, economy is showing little signs of recovery. The fight against militancy is exacting a heavy toll on the capital markets. The protection of US missions in the country could not serve the purpose of improving the economy. Then, there are problems arising out of the on-going military operation. This is a sad reflection on the way US intends utilising the aid while its official, political and media circles keep harping on the theme of billions of dollars doled out to Pakistan. Strangely also, the Americans insist on the right use of the aid.
The money should be utilised for the purpose it is touted to be spent. There is this flood of IDPs, which according to rough estimates could go up to one million. One would have thought that the Obama administration would come forward and allocate a sizeable amount for their dire need, apart from $1.9 billion rather than be content with allocating a meagre $4.9 million.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. US admission of failure.


THE dismissal of the top US and NATO commander in Afghanistan General David McKiernan, which makes it the second removal from office of such a high ranking American military official after General Douglas MacArthur was forced out during the Korean War, could be viewed as a subtle admission of failure in a war that has lasted longer than either of the two World Wars. Putting the onus on General McKiernan of prosecuting the war against an elusive resistance in a conventional manner implies that the policymakers in the Pentagon also had no clue how to go about the task. After all, he had been there only for less than a year, and there has been a steady increase in the number of American as well as Afghan civilian casualties for a much longer period, which clearly suggested that the resistance had gradually become stronger and which, in turn, is evidence of the fact that the war had been badly conceived, haphazardly managed and poorly assisted by the allied NATO forces. Apparently, he disagreed about the grounds that Defence Secretary Robert Gates might have proffered him for removal from the post; otherwise his military career would not have ended in such a sudden manner. The dismissal is not warranted by Secretary Gates' observations, "a new approach was probably in our best interest... fresh eyes were needed". He has been made a scapegoat.
The huge surge of troops, as envisaged in the AfPak review, which will be led by General McKiernan's replacement, Lt Gen Stanley McChrystal, is hardly a guarantee for reversing the fortunes of war. General McChrystal might be an expert in conducting an unconventional warfare, but he is up against a highly motivated resistance and would find himself placed in a highly complex scenario. The Afghans are a motivated resistance, who would not countenance foreign occupation and would rather sacrifice their lives than remain in bondage. They enjoy the support and sympathy of all freedom-loving people, most of all their co-ethnics across the border in Pakistan. And that brings us to another offshoot of the American invasion, the mess in the tribal areas where a situation has been forced upon Pakistan to fight an "existential threat". The US has to realise that the AfPak theatre of war is a sticky wicket; so the sooner it extricates itself the better for all involved. Hiding its failures by harping on Pakistan being the "most dangerous country" in the world would not help matters. It must give out a definite roadmap to placate the resistance, work out a plan to reconstruct the battered country and devise a way to install a government that takes care of ethnic sensitivities. A puppet and unpopular Pushtun in the person of President Hamid Karzai is likely to make Afghan sentiments flare, not calm down.



2. Startling disclosures.


THE facts presented about the oil refineries in an interim report by the Justice (Retd) Bhagwandas Judicial Commission are startling. The refineries, it seems, have been unduly pampered during the Musharraf era and allowed to indulge in malpractices and subvert contractual requirements. What they did was subsequently added to the cost of petroleum products, which was realized from the common man.
The refineries have been charging the price of higher quality diesel while supplying an inferior quality product with one percent sulphur content. This is serious on two accounts. First, the practice is an example of cheating, pure and simple. Second, the use of sulphur in this ratio, banned all over the world, is highly detrimental to the environment. Besides having a negative impact on the people's health, it is harmful for historical buildings like the Badshahi Mosque and Lahore Fort, which are avowedly being damaged on account of the fumes produced by diesel containing one per cent sulphur. It is the responsibility of the government to require that the refineries supply high grade diesel in accordance with the contract. The refineries should be pressed to pay back the overcharged sum. The 2002 formula allowing the refineries 10 percent deemed duty on HSD, which according to the report is over and above the international price, has to be replaced with one strictly in accordance with the norms of the world market. According to the report, the refineries continue to keep a whopping sum of Rs. 15 billion in what are called 'special reserves.' These are avowedly meant for the upgradation of their capacity and improvement of the quality of their products. Interestingly, neither of the tasks has ever been undertaken by these refineries. It is beyond comprehension why the refineries are allowed to keep these funds by an administration facing a grave financial crunch. Many would agree with the Commission that the government should retrieve the money for use in social welfare schemes and development projects. The facts produced in the report lead one to conclude that no mechanism of oversight had been put in place as far as the refineries' side of the petroleum sector is concerned. There is a need under the circumstances to review the whole gamut of issues related to the cost of refining, freight rates, margins allowed to distributors, and dealers' commission. The sooner the government undertakes the exercise, the better for the general public, which continues to bear the burden of the rising costs of petroleum products and gas.



3. Plug the loopholes.



REALIZING that Pakistan needs to be fully supported as it fights the militants in Malakand Division, the international community has come to its rescue. Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke while briefing Senate Foreign Relations Committee has urged Congress to release $497 million in emergency aid. While Germany has provided Pakistan with an assistance of 600,000 euros for the IDPs, UK has pledged 10 million pounds in emergency funds. What is more, there is the financial assistance package pledged at the Tokyo Donors Summit. However, this aid should be rushed at the earliest to enable Pakistan to deal with the tricky situation. Any unnecessary delay, Ambassador Holbrooke rightly points out, would only benefit the terrorists.
But doubts, whether the money would be used for its original purpose are also being created. Two US Senators, while maintaining that some of the politicians in the country are unreliable, have insisted that they want congressional oversight of the aid to know how the money will be spent or else they say they will block the move. Even Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has felt the need to ensure transparency. He told the Federal Cabinet that the donors wanted a judicious spending of the aid and ordered that accountability measures were to be introduced.
To all intents and purposes, a large part of the monetary assistance is meant to address the humanitarian crisis in NWFP. There are about one million internally displaced persons, who in a large part have been evicted from Malakand Division as a result of the military operation there. The economy of Northwestern Pakistan in particular, and that of the country in general, is in a tailspin. Therefore, there is a need to make right use of the aid. In trying circumstances like these, the government must devise a mechanism for a proper oversight. The repercussions would be severe otherwise. The matter would not only be taken up by the opposition, but will also tarnish our image abroad.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. Precision strikes.


MILITARY operations inside populated areas need to be conducted with extra care and sensitivity, all the more so when the military is deployed against targets in its own country. Gen Kayani is therefore right to order precise strikes to ensure minimum collateral damage even at the expense of taking risks. Precision strikes require good ground intelligence, which only the security agencies can provide. What is at stake now is their reputation. There is a perception that a near total reliance on air power and artillery is already causing a lot of suffering to the civilian population. The operation has inflicted severe punishment on the civilian population in Mingora without succeeding after 12 days to dislodge the militants who continue to man the streets. With power, water, and gas switched off, there is none in the hospitals to look after the injured caught in the cross fire. While we have been told that the objectives of the operation would be realized within weeks rather than months, this cannot be achieved unless troops start moving into the areas to dislodge the militants. Wherever this has happened, as partly in Buner, there is a semblance of improvement. ISPR's rosy account of the situation in Buner though is in stark contrast to the one provided by the ICRC.
Of the 60 'precise' drone attacks inside Pakistan by the CIA between Jan 14, 2006 to April 8, 2009, only 10 were able to hit their targets, killing in the process 14 wanted al-Qaeda leaders and as many as 687 innocent tribesmen. The attacks led to widespread protests in the country. While in Washington and later in London, President Zardari reiterated Islamabad's demand for its on fleet of Predators but failed to elicit a favourable response. With militants continuously targeting containers carrying military supplies for Afghanistan, Washington is reportedly meditating a compromise formula. A Los Angeles Times report tells of the US government agreeing to undertake Predator strikes in limited collaboration with Pakistani military. A separate fleet of US drones operated by the Defence Department would avowedly conduct attacks inside Pakistan on Taliban and other militants in consultation with Pakistani officers sitting at a Jalalabad command centre. Two conditions however would make Pakistan Army's association only symbolic. First, no strike would be allowed without the US agreement. Second, while Pakistani officers would play 'a role' in the determination of routes, targets and decisions to fire weapons, the button to launch the weapons would remain in the US army's control. While the arrangement would help the US attack the targets of its choice in Pakistan, blame for the consequences of any misfire would be borne by the Pakistan army. The avowed arrangement hardly suits Pakistan.


2. A welcome relief.


THESE are turbulent times for Afghanistan. In circumstances of the sort it must learn to co-exist peacefully with the neighboring countries, particularly those on which it relies for its economic survival. Fortunately, from the outcome of the Third Regional Economic Conference on Afghanistan held in Islamabad on Wednesday, it would not be fallacious to assume that the war-ravaged country wants to move in the right direction. During the meeting, President Hamid Karzai and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani underscored the need to enhance bilateral trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. Prime Minister Gilani who remarked that it was imperative to turn the page on Afghanistan, called for a concrete set of projects for fast-track development that would focus on a raft of transport, energy, infrastructure and job creation ventures. It is quite reassuring to know that both the countries would make joint efforts for peace aimed at defeating what President Karzai calls a "wildlife of terrorism". His statement that he supports Pakistan's efforts to combat terrorism certainly comes as a breath of fresh air.
There is no denying the fact that the region has a huge economic potential. The statements made by leaders from both the countries are welcome as they raise the hope of improvement in bilateral ties. However, if this prospect is to be turned into a reality, Afghanistan must bid farewell to its frequent finger-pointing towards Pakistan. Of late, the Afghan President has scaled down his criticism of Islamabad, which obviously is a positive development, yet the elimination of mistrust demands some more effort. Indian influence, which invariably pinches the bilateral relationship the most, must be curtailed. New Delhi has set up hundreds of consulates in Afghanistan amid speculations that the Indian presence is meant to spark violence in Balochistan. Worse still, Kabul has been holding Pakistan accountable for sponsoring terror networks in Afghanistan. This approach would not do. Afghanistan must come to terms with reality and rather than blaming Islamabad must appreciate what it has done so far. It is worth pointing out that during the meeting, Prime Minister Gilani called Pakistan as the second home for Afghans. History supports the statement, as during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, it was Pakistan that housed three million Afghan refugees. Nonetheless, it is heartening that the economic cooperation conference indicates that Afghanistan views Pakistan as a friend. The bonhomie if it prevails indefinitely could go a long way in enhancing the region's economic development.



3. PIA woes.



THE row between the administration of the Pakistan International Airlines and its pilots' association has finally ended. It appears that the demands of the pilots have been accepted and the latter have assured the management that they will resume their duties diligently. Which they were performing in a manner far removed from when the strike was going on. Not the full-on "shutter down" equivalent of the airline industry but a "go slow" strike, one that saw the airline losing much money and goodwill. Long queues of passengers were seen distressed by the cancellation of some flights and the delay of others.
Without getting into the specifics of the agreement and the deal itself, something has to be said about the costs of the strike. While the costs in terms of lost revenue and reimbursed tickets is easily quantifiable, nothing can peg the quantum of goodwill lost correctly. Or, in terms of the more quantifiable, the amount of revenue that is to be lost as a result of that. Rather than presenting the image of a smartly turned out airline (which it doesn't even without a strike) PIA presented the image of a dilapidated third world airline that does not have its affairs in order. Surely better means of communication should be designed to ensure things don't come to this. And the pilots should also not be as petulant as not to accept anything from the other side.
As far as the demands of the pilots is concerned, PALPA sources have said that they are now willing to extend their "full cooperation and support for bringing the airline out of financial crisis." That would be tough. Airlines throughout the world are going through a bad time. A lot of them are laying people off. As the saying goes, be careful what you wish for; you just might get it. If the pilots want PIA to become a swift, streamlined and efficient organization, they're going to have to put up with the massive layoffs and cutting of perks and privileges that other, more professionally run airlines are indulging in.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. An overdue exercise.


WHILE the military operation in Swat is in full swing and the government and the entire nation are trying to cope with its aftereffects in the form of over a million IDPs, Prime Minster Gilani has convened the overdue All Parties Conference on Monday to discuss the situation. Many think the best time for the exercise was when the militants had refused to lay down arms, rejected the courts, parliament and democracy as un-Islamic and vowed to continue their attempts to enforce an extremist version of the Shariah all over the country through the barrel of the gun. Belated as it is, the move is nevertheless welcome as it would provide the government the benefit of inputs from parties representing a cross section of society. The in-camera briefing by the COAS to the heads of the parliamentary parties would help them realize the gravity of the situation and to evaluate various aspects the military response.
The country's internal security is under threat as never before. While a full-blown military operation is being conducted in Malakand Agency, there are disturbing reports emerging from a number of other areas. Despite the official circles having rubbished the BBC report which maintained that the government enjoyed effective control only over 38 per cent area of NWFP and the tribal region, militants continue to target security personnel, attack government installations and private property and kill innocent people in the province and the tribal region. On Thursday alone, three soldiers died when their convoy came under attack in North Waziristan. A school and a college were blown up in Mohmand Agency and Darra Adamkhel. In Dera Ismail Khan eight policemen were injured when militants attacked three police stations. There are disturbing signals from the ulema and political parties. On Wednesday a group of religious scholars announced that they would fight the militants in case the army failed to bring them under control. The next day another group of ulema and political leaders called for a halt to the operations. The situation cannot be retrieved unless there is a unified response from the entire nation. The leaders at the APC must avoid point scoring or playing to the gallery. The government, the opposition and the army must jointly evolve a well-thought out strategy which has to be aimed at winning over the vast majority comprising moderates and isolating the extremists. Force must be used only when all other means have failed, and then too sparingly and for as short a period as possible. Attempts should be made to isolate the extremists who challenge the writ of the state by negotiations with those who are willing to lay down arms, accept the democratic system and join the mainstream. Meanwhile full attentions should be paid to the welfare of those displaced by the military operation.


2. Mending walls.


CHIEF Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry has taken notice of what he calls "loot sale" of precious state land worth billions of rupees at a throwaway price in Karachi. He has indicated that a commission might be formed to probe into the matter. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court notification to the federal government on Wednesday asking it to revise the petroleum pricing formula. The court has informed the government that appropriate action would be taken in case the prices are not reduced. Notwithstanding the authority of the Supreme Court to take actions on its own, one cannot overlook the fact that the suo moto actions should be very selective. It should be an exception rather than a rule. As the saying goes, good fences make good neighbours. What is more, the equation between the judiciary and the executive is a delicate one, which demands that all the organs of the state act within their constitutional parameters and avoid collision. And it would be out of place to assume that the Chief Justice would be incognizant of this fact. Take for instance his statement that it was not his job to look into issues the petroleum pricing formula.
Obviously, the argument that the judiciary must not poke its nose in the affairs of the executive has its own worth. However, this principle sounds valid only when all organs of the state are acting in accordance with fairness and law. The role of judiciary in overseeing the functioning of the executive, thus, can only be ruled out when there is good governance and rule of law in the country something that is missing. There are issues of gross negligence on the part of the administration, which cannot be left unnoticed. The authorities cannot be just given a blank cheque to go about their corrupt ways as this goes on to register a direct impact on provision of justice and rule of law in society. Moreover, since the executive is, by and large the most powerful organ of the state, the idea of an independent judiciary keeping an eye on it doesn't seem that erroneous. Even a matter as negligible as an unjust petroleum pricing formula could take horrific proportions by exacting a heavy toll on a very large section of the population. If the government is fleecing the poor, the judiciary must step in and hold the political executive accountable. What is needed to stop the court's interference in administrative matters is honesty and efficiency on the part of the administration. There will be no need for judicial intervention if all the organs of the state particularly the executive acted fully in accordance with law and practiced good governance.


3. US aid.



THE United States House of Representatives has approved an aid programme worth one billion dollars for Pakistan in its struggle against militancy. The figure that the Senate had approved is a hundred million dollars short of the lower house's aid, meaning the total amount would probably have to be somewhere between. The aid is classified as security and economic aid, both of which Pakistan needs. But it is the former, which it needs in a very immediate sense.
The armed forces are waging a war in the troubled Swat valley, which is leading to a large amount of civilian displacement. This displacement, if lingered on for a longer period of time, is going to cause an immense amount of resentment against the state and the armed forces, which is, predictably, going to be cashed in on by the militants later on. Furthermore, the operation itself has many shortcomings. The US counter-insurgency rulebook has been rewritten. They are trading their uses of airpower and artillery for a more extensive use of infantry. Sure, this approach yields more casualties but collateral damage is minimized. The Pakistan Army, unfortunately, is yet to engage in this dangerous yet more effective mode of warfare. The money that the US is giving in terms of military aid should be spent on gearing the infantry with the necessary equipment and training that is required in waging such a war.
Another aspect that must be taken care of is the necessity of accountability. There are widespread allegations of graft in the money that the government and the armed forces secured from the US during the Musharraf regime. A full-fledged investigation into where that money went should be launched in earnest. We, as a nation, should not be on the dole. If circumstances dictate that we are to accept aid from other nations, we should at least make sure that money is spent not only honestly, but also wisely.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. In both camps.


COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's in-camera briefing to the parliamentarians on the situation in Swat elicited a unanimous stand in favour of the military operation. This unity among the leadership on an issue of such great importance augurs well for the federation. The Taliban were using Swat as a base to spread their network to other parts of the country and carry out suicide attacks across the country. They were also advocating a way of life that was neither in accordance with the spirit of Islam nor the vision of the founding fathers of the country. The government's attempts to hammer out a negotiated settlement of the conflict had met with little success because the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan could not reconcile itself to the idea of accepting the writ of the state.
Now, all eye are set on the APC that would be held on Monday in which the government would ask political parties for their approval of the military operation in Malakand Division. It appears as if Gen Kayani's in-camera session has by and large succeeded in persuading the politicians that operation be allowed to go on. But this doesn't seem to be the case because none of the politicians who attended the session preferred to confirm to media their approval of the army action. This question has arisen since some of the parliamentarians from major parties have been opposing the government's strategy in the National Assembly. Consider PML(N) for instance. On the one hand, PML(N) Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif has said that his party stood with the government and the Army, on the other, keeping in view the statements made by Makhdoom Javaid Hashmi and others, it looks as if the PML(N) is opposed to the military operation. What is more, Khawaja Saad Rafique has held the government and the army accountable for what he calls the mess in Swat. This implies a lack of consistency in their stand. JUI(F), more or less, presents a similar picture as it keeps changing its stance. Maulana Fazlur Rehman though he agreed that the Taliban had to be reined in, criticized the government for not taking the Parliament on board. Meanwhile, NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussein feels that the military action should be extended to other parts of the NWFP and FATA. One must not doubt his commitment but this is an extreme position. The government is already hard put dealing with the IDP's that have fled their homes in Malakand region. Rather than opening up new venues for military operations, the campaign in Swat ought to lead ultimately to understanding and peace.



2. A long tour.


PRESIDENT Zardari has completed his foreign tour that took him to Libya, US, UK and France and kept him out of the country for two weeks. Pakistan's trade with Libya is of the order of six million dollars annually. In Tripoli, he met Libya's leader Muammar Qaddafi and singed a number of agreements. Hopes were expressed for investments but it was not clear if he was able to persuade Mr Qaddafi to make any significant investment in Pakistan. The number of Pakistani expatriates working in Libya has shrunk from a peak of 150,000 to only 10,000. There was no word if more Pakistan workers could jobs there.
While the official visit to Washington was confined to four days, President Zardari spent four more days in New York. In Washington he was assured that President Obama stood by the democratic government, thus neutralising some of the impact of the latter's damaging statement regarding civilian government in Pakistan being fragile that had come only days before the visit. While the House Appropriations Committee approved $1.9 billion assistance, it must have been embarrassing for Mr Zardari the way US Senators Bob Corker and Senator Robert Mendez pressed the point for Congressional oversight. Mr Zardari however failed to persuade his counterpart that there was a need to put an end to drone attacks or put them at Pakistan army's disposal. The MoU signed with Afghanistan to get transit trade route for Indian goods was seen by many in Pakistan as highly controversial. In London, President Zardari succeeded in seeking 12 million pounds for the IDPs but failed to persuade PM Brown to review the case of Pakistani students being unduly harassed in UK. While Foreign Minister Qureshi pats himself for persuading Paris to conclude a nuclear agreement with Pakistan similar to the one between the US and India, the French have strangely remained right-lipped over this aspect of the matter.
Besides being the all-powerful President of the country, Mr Zardari is also the de facto head of the PPP that leads the ruling alliance. A negative aspect of his long absence was that number of vital decisions had to be put off. The much needed APC was postponed and the Balochistan issue pressed by Governor Magsi was not taken up.



3. Good news.


THANKS to the pressure of the Supreme Court, Prime Minister's Advisor on Finance Shaukat Tarin has given the good news of reduction in the prices of petroleum products in a week and announced that the government would render the Petroleum Development Levy transparent in the next budget for the public to know how much it was making in the bargain of the products' sale. That is one good outcome of judicial activism that one cannot help appreciating in a milieu where leadership shows a callous disregard of the people's problems, while itself enjoying the best facilities.
Mr Tarin, who was addressing a press conference, expected $2.46 billion from various sources next month and proudly talked about the more-than-expected commitment of $5.28 billion make by Friends of Pakistan. The world's doubts, equally shared by Pakistanis, whether the amount to be given by FoP was being properly spent on "poverty reduction, education and healthcare" would only be put at rest if the authorities were to put in place an independent and transparent mechanism to monitor the money's utilisation. One would agree with him that considering the loss Pakistan's participation in the war on terror has caused to its economy, the amount of committed aid is too meagre. In fact, the economy's setback of $35 billion apart, the extent of human loss and suffering, like in the present displacement from Malakand Division and Swat, is incalculable. Under the circumstances, one would expect that the people's government would take care not to waste resources and put its shoulders to the wheel in meeting public worries about inflation, security, health, education, etc. One hopes that Advisor Tarin would also work out a strategy, which makes it possible for the inflation to fall to a single digit by next September/October, as he has predicted.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. Indian elections.


AGAINST most projections, which were predicting a pretty close contest between the two main national parties of India, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance won a decisive victory in the 2009 general elections for the 15th Lok Sabha over the Bhartiya Janata Party-led NDA. Dr Manmohan Singh, already nominated by Party President Sonia Gandhi to head the next government, becomes the only Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to be returned on completing a full term in office. Rahul Gandhi's win, and the expectation of his inclusion in the Cabinet, also signal that there is a prime minister in waiting. The UPA is projected to get about 260 seats, an impressive gain of around 80, but a few short of majority in a House of 543, leaving the BJP behind by over 90 seats. The UPA, however, would have little difficulty in getting the support of smaller parties to complete the tally of 272, untrammelled by the constraints imposed by associating the Communist parties in the government. The leftist parties had tried to undermine Dr Singh's market liberalisation and developing closer ties to the US in the previous UPA tenure. While the poor showing of NDA effectively put an end to L K Advani's prime ministerial ambitions and demonstrated that his policies did not attract universal appeal in the country, the smaller parties also did not fare so well. Of the 714 million registered voters, 60 percent are reported to have cast their vote. One would hope that the renewed confidence, which the election results have given the Manmohan government, persuades it to review its attitude, post-Mumbai, towards Pakistan, shed its policies of fingerpointing at Pakistan and restart the negotiating process. Continuing tension between the two countries, particularly over the Kashmir dispute, serves to strengthen militant elements. It is in the interest of both countries, and the peace and prosperity of 1.25 billion people and the world at large, that the rankling issue is put out of the way in an amicable manner that answers the aspirations of the Kashmiri people. That would be a singular tribute to the 'biggest democracy of the world'. Both Pakistan and India acting together can effectively defeat the forces of terrorism that are plaguing the region more than anywhere else.
Analysts have attributed the Congress win to various factors. It was a vote for consistency, they point out, reflecting the electorate's feeling that it was not advisable to change horses in midstream in a period of economic turmoil. Dr Singh is also rightly credited with high economic growth and successful introduction of liberalisation policies. He is viewed as the most suitable person to affect economic resurgence and steer the ship of state out of the troubled waters created by the region's security environment.




2. Backlash.



THE two explosions in Peshawar on Saturday that left 14 people dead, including two handicapped children and their teachers, and 35 injured, might well be a backlash to the intensified military operation in Malakand Division. In the first incident, a bus carrying special children was hit by shrapnel after a car bomb ripped through the congested Circular Road at 1:30 pm. Several vehicles parked outside an internet café caught fire, while nearby houses and shops were partially damaged. Police arrested four persons who had resorted to aerial firing after the blast but remained unsure about the identities of the mastermind as well as the target. The same evening, another blast took place outside a cloth market in the Saddar area in which a child was killed and four others were wounded.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility by any militant group. An intelligence official in Islamabad meanwhile told a foreign television channel that investigators were probing links to the Taliban. But at the same time the argument that the bombings could have been an act of retaliation against the ongoing military operation in Malakand Division cannot be disputed since more than 800 Taliban are believed to have been killed in the fresh offensive launched nine days ago. The militants might also be getting support from their counterparts operating in the restive tribal region, who are constantly being targeted by drones flown from Afghanistan. Twenty-nine people were killed when the remotely piloted aircraft fired missiles at a residential compound in North Waziristan on Saturday. It was the third strike in this month, but so far no high-value target has been killed in these drone attacks. It is time Pakistan told the Obama Administration to respect its sovereignty, especially after its request for the transfer of drone technology went unheeded. The resurgence of militancy has also to be dealt with on a war footing. There is no alterative to taking on the Taliban who have been challenging the writ of the state. The Army needs to be backed, to ease the pain of hundreds of thousands of people who left their homes from across Malakand Division and are enduring hardship at the makeshift camps set up in Mardan and elsewhere in the NWFP. The most pressing national obligation at the moment is to help the IDPs. But while coping with this issue, another serious challenge for the government would be to prevent militancy from spreading across the country. It could be best done by reassigning to the intelligence agencies their original task of keeping check on the activities of the elements posing threat to national security.




3. Deals in steel.


THE recent, seemingly shady sale deals by the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) are wrong in more ways than one. The first is the obvious no-brainer bit of selling billets to an influential firm at rates much lower than those offered to the PSM by other bidders. During the fiscal year 2008-09, the PSM sold a whopping 36,000 metric tons to the firm in question. That raises the other aspect to the shadiness of the deal: this amount was sold to the firm despite its clearly not having the capability to process the same. In fact, the monopolies controlling body of the country, the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP), had, under a recent ruling, served the PSM with a notice on the issue. A rival foundry had moved the Commission to the effect. To sum it up: the price that the PSM was selling the billets at was much lower than what it should have been. And the quantum tonnage of the sale to this particular firm was much higher than it should have been according to the fair trade practices as determined by the CCP. It is easy to put two and two together. The firm is allegedly selling the billets in the open market at a huge profit.
This is particularly ominous considered the symbolic value of the Pakistan Steel Mills. It was this institution that became in the public consciousness the first instance of defiance shown by the now reinstated Chief Justice against the then ruling regime.
In the larger picture, the PSM is a mismanaged organization, and mismanaged organizations usually have a larger possibility of graft. The whole idea of privatizing this organization also raises a serious debate. Whereas, during the CJ's act of defiance, everybody objected to selling it for a song, no one questioned why it was being sold in the first place. The idea that was constantly being pitched by the government was that it was profitable and had interested buyers was ridiculous. Not only is selling only the profitable organizations ridiculous but the PSM was never supposed to be profitable in the first place but only to provide steel to local industries at a subsidized rates.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. Call for consensus.


IT is quite obvious that if political forces of the ruling set-up and the opposition were to evolve a consensus on major issues confronting the nation the struggle to resolve them would have smooth sailing. It would be far easier to achieve the desired goal than with discordant voices distracting attention. Therefore, Prime Minister Gilani's call for a national consensus, with particular reference to the military operation in Malakand Division, in his opening remarks at the all-parties conference held at Islamabad on Monday merits agreement of the country's various political leaders. There are high stakes involved in its success. Mr Gilani rightly pointed out, "Victory in the fight against terrorism is, in fact, a guarantee for the security...of our coming generations." But army action being not a durable solution, he urged political parties to play their part. To put the world's fears, albeit baseless, of a Taliban takeover at rest, he was justified in maintaining that the troops would remain in the troubled region until peace had been ensured and displaced persons returned home. It is comforting to hear him say that the government would do its best to provide the IDPs help and protection. (They) "should not feel alone".
The APC that has been called at the initiative of PML-N leader Mian Nawaz Sharif to discuss the threat from Swat and the adjoining areas was attended by him, JUI's Fazlur Rehman, MQM's Farooq Sattar, ANP's Asfandyar Wali Khan, JI's Liaqat Baloch, Tehreek-i-Insaf's Imran Khan, Awami Muslim League's Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, PML-Q Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, PPP (Sherpao)'s Aftab Ahmad Sherpao and several other political leaders. Most of the speakers endorsed the military action; there were some reservations on the part of certain participants. Besides, several leaders drew attention to the plight of displaced persons and demanded the provision of proper and timely humanitarian assistance. While it would be hard to avoid the impression that the present military campaign has been conducted under pressure of the US, the frustrating situation that the open and outright violations of the Swat peace deal by the militants had created for the government finally tilted the balance in favour of armed action. It was the government's responsibility then to restore the writ of the state, ensure the citizens a humane and decent treatment and prevent the militants from spreading their tentacles. Nevertheless, there is need for a careful assessment of the scenario to see that the military withdraws on the completion of its mission and in line with the policy of three D's (dialogue, deterrence and development) announced by the Prime Minister, quick and substantial development works are carried out for the welfare of the local populations.



2. New judicial policy.


THE least that most people expect from the Supreme Court under CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry, who was restored along with other deposed judges as result of the nearly two year long struggle by the lawyers and civil society, is to concentrate on evolving an efficient and corruption free judicial system. As things stand, shortcomings on the part of the judges, dilatory tactics employed by unscrupulous lawyers and a corruption-ridden and outmoded police system, have all combined to make the judicial system extremely slow moving and thoroughly corrupt. Delays in the dispensation of justice and the prohibitive costs the plaintiffs are required to bear have shaken the common man's confidence in the system, leading to an increasing hankering for all sorts of ill-conceived parallel judicial systems ranging from military courts to Qazi courts. A streamlining of the judicial system has, therefore, to be on the cards. While the CJ has visited a number of jails and issued orders to do away with some of the injustices he witnessed, there is much more to the phenomenon than can be gathered from visits here and there. What is needed is an overall review of the prevailing detention system, which instead of reforming tends to transform minor offenders into hardened criminals.
Comments on the National Judicial Policy Making Committee recommendations will have to wait till these are made public on May 30. With a huge backlog of pending cases, it was a realistic decision to recall judges working on non-judicial assignments and to decide that henceforth serving members of the judiciary would not accept such posts. The benchmarks for deciding different categories of cases have been set for speedy decision. Bail applications have to be decided in seven days and criminal cases in 6-12 months. Banking, tax and family cases have to be disposed of in six months while the cases of women and children have to be given priority. These announcements would hopefully discourage dilatory tactics.
What is equally important is to ensure that the quest for speed does not compromise the quality of judgment. The police have to be required to investigate cases efficiently so that the legal requirements are fulfilled without wastage of time. The Bar Associations need to be approached to persuade their members not to indulge in dilatory tactics, which create hurdles in the way of timely and cheap justice.



3. Pak Nukes are safe.


TALKING to the media, President Obama has remarked that Pakistan's nuclear weapons were safe and that Pakistan Army was fully equipped to prevent the militants from taking over the nuclear arsenal but warned "all options are open" if the country goes unstable. Nevertheless, he insisted that the prospect was hypothetical and he respected the country's sovereignty, which implies a positive attitude.
Concurrently, a scare is being created in the Western media about the possible capture of the arsenal by militants. It is also being said that a special force has been formed to get hold of nuclear assets, defuse them and put them in a safe place. According to a US based news channel, which quoted American intelligence officials, there existed a detailed plan for infiltrating into Pakistan to secure its nuclear warheads in case the militants succeed. These fears are baseless and appear to be part of pressure tactics. As things stand, the army is employed in full gear in Malakand and has achieved concrete results. President Zardari has further made it known that the Army's next target will be the militants hiding in the tribal areas. So far, the military has killed more than 1,000 militants in Malakand region and quite a number are on the run. It is simply ludicrous to assume that they would ever pose a mortal threat to our nuclear assets. Likewise, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in his address to the Central Executive Committee the other day maintained that Pakistan's nuclear weapons were meticulously guarded and asserted that no foreign state would be provided access to them.
There is no ground for painting a doomsday scenario. Perhaps, those who are so paranoid are more concerned over the fact that Pakistan was the only Muslim country of the nuclear club. Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik rightly pointed out that if Pakistan could acquire nuclear weapons, it also knew how to protect them. Apart from that, there is another factor in the equation. Given the way New Delhi had started brandishing its nuclear sword after it detonated nuclear devices in 1998, Pakistan had to be on guard and maintain a minimum nuclear deterrent.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. Full support.


THE march of events in Swat and Malakand Division exposed the designs of militants against certain fundamental principles on which the country's Constitution rests, and the distorted concept of religion that they wanted to impose, thus paving the ground for the dissenting political forces to fall in line with the government policies to combat the insurgency. The all-parties conference, in which 40-odd political parties participated, did not lend explicit support to the military action but the wording of the resolution it unanimously passed carries indirect approval. The deletion of the clause, "endorsed the role of armed forces of Pakistan in the present situation and grieved the shahadat of personnel of these forces" from the original draft of the resolution indicates that the participants did not want to go on record backing an action that could have serious political implications for the country. They had to be wary of making any such move in the light of the past experience of military takeovers that at times appeared to have been encouraged by political elements.
However, the various clauses of the final version leave little room for doubt that to implement them armed action was the only available option; others had either been unsuccessfully tried (negotiations and persuasion, for instance) or were not practicable (development works) at this stage. For how else could it be possible to "establish and maintain the writ of the state and ensure the supremacy of the rule of law" under the circumstances, when both words and deeds of the militants constituted an open defiance of the established authority of the state? Similarly with certain other clauses of the resolution. Their leader, cleric Sufi Muhammad, was posing an ever-greater challenge to the government with each passing day. An implicit admission of the necessity of the military operation also can hardly be disputed in the 7th clause that reads: "maintaining, that the safety and security of civilians is paramount and it should be ensured that minimum harm is caused to the non-combatant civilian population". As the political parties opposing armed action also unequivocally subscribe to the thesis of the supremacy of the Constitution, the militants' violent defiance of it naturally put them on the back foot. A via media of implied approval was, therefore, found that would enable them to stick to their stand in public. According to PML(Q) President Ch Shujaat, the only two parties that unanimously voiced their endorsement were the MQM and PML(Q). Some parties, like the Jamaat Islami, the JUI(F), the JUI(S) and the PTI, while endorsing the resolution, expressed reservations over military action. Nevertheless, both people and political parties would insist that there should be minimum loss of life, least suffering and dislocation of the local population, and recall of troops as soon as the mess is cleared.



2. Lankan conflict ends.


THE Sri Lankan Army has managed one of the more difficult feats of the modern age in ending the insurgency by the Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam, who had held sway in the northern Tamil-dominated areas of the island for almost three decades. The insurgency was rated one of the intractable conflicts of the world, and proved resistant to all but the latest military measures, as well as all political measures, which were carried out by the two PMs and three Presidents who tried to tackle it. LTTE was also known because the insurgency involved India, which under Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi became involved, with the sending of a peacekeeping force there, which returned with its nose bloodied and completely unsuccessful. LTTE also pioneered the suicide blast, with a LTTE volunteer accounting for Mr Gandhi at the end of the election campaign, which should have brought him back to power. Perhaps the most important symbol of the Sri Lankan Army's victory was the death of LTTE chief Vellupillai Prabhakaran, along with its naval chief Soosai and its intelligence chief Pottu Amaan in a climactic final battle in the war zone. Along with Prabhakaran, a host of LTTE fighters and political cadres were also killed, including spokesman Sivaratnam Puleedevan and political chief B Nadesan. Amid all this bloodshed, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse has declared victory over the Tigers, and has assured the Tamil portion of the Sri Lankan population that their protection was his responsibility. However, he did not claim Prabhakaran's death, and LTTE has claimed that he survived. However, the Sri Lankan government is not alone in the world in believing that Prabhakaran and LTTE cannot make a comeback, that the civil war is finally over. Now, though Sri Lanka, which was hit only a couple of years back by the tsunami will not revert to its 'island-paradise' status, the end of the civil war should mean a return of prosperity to the island-nation. It will be the success of the Rajapakse government, and of its successors, if that prosperity is allowed to be shared by the Tamils in the north of the island. At the same time, the entire profile of Sri Lanka will change, and it will no longer be possible to conduct diplomacy on the basis of a one-point agenda.
This victory also has consequences for the region, and the War on Terror. It illustrates that Indian domestic politics cannot impose itself on any other country, not even a neighbour with a large minority that corresponds to one in India, and it brings to an end a major reason for assuming that the region is a vortex of terror.




3. Undue suspicion.



THE US Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm Mike Mullen, in a question-answer session, has claimed before Congress that Pakistan is adding to its nuclear arsenal. He refrained from giving any details, but answered a firm "yes" when asked whether Pakistan was really doing so. What is more, a leading US Daily is of the view that Pakistan could divert the proposed military aid, meant for counter-terrorism, to building nuclear infrastructure.
This will be considered another attempt at putting curbs on Pakistan's legitimate pursuit of nuclear power. Last week, unnecessary apprehensions were expressed about Pakistan's capacity to safeguard its nuclear weapons. It was being contended that the militants could take control of the warheads. Now an equally irrational noise is being created about Pakistan's processing activities. For one thing, Pakistan needs to have the capacity to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. For another, it has already explained its nuclear doctrine that requires the possession of a minimum deterrent to maintain the balance of power in South Asia. The country has no ambitions to enter into an arms race with anyone.
There is a greater need on part of the US media and Administration to pay attention to Israeli arsenal, which poses a threat to the security of the Middle East. It is ironic that while the US is helping India and had entered into an agreement with it for exchange of nuclear technology, besides allowing it to procure nuclear material from abroad, it is unfairly putting pressure on Pakistan. One would have wished that the US, which calls Pakistan a frontline state in the War on Terror, would have offered a similar deal to Pakistan. But it turned a deaf ear to such demands from the Pakistani side. Pressure building tactics would create more trust deficit between the two, while just the opposite is the need of the hour.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier

1. "Incoherent" policy.


SECRETARY of State Clinton was less than candid when she said that the US policy towards Pakistan over the last 30 years has been "incoherent." To many Pakistanis it has been a well-thought out policy dictated by shortsighted self-interest. To defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the CIA worked hand in glove with Pakistani agencies to bring together militant extremists from all over the world to form an international brigade to operate from the tribal areas of Pakistan. No thought was given to the long-term implications of arming and training these elements that were to later turn their guns on their own creators. The fallout of the war unleashed by the US in Afghanistan turned out to be catastrophic for Pakistan. The country was flush with lethal weapons from Klashnikovs, rocket launchers and landmines to Ack-ack guns. The weapons were acquired by criminals and anti-state elements to the detriment of law and order in Pakistan. The US looked the other way as some militant groups resorted to producing heroin to raise funds. This caused tens of thousands of Pakistanis to turn into drug addicts. The international jihadi brigade trained thousands of others who are now challenging the writ of the state in Swat, Buner and Waziristan. The greatest crime the US committed was to turn its back on Pakistan once the Soviet army had withdrawn, leaving it to deal with thousands of local and foreign battle-hardened militants as it deemed fit. From 1977 onward, one US administration after another, both Democrat and Republican, blindly supported the military dictators in Pakistan who damaged political institutions to strengthen themselves. Despite lip service paid to human rights and democracy, the US continued to put up with violations of the Constitution, suppression of human rights and acts of political engineering by its military allies in Pakistan. Many would challenge the claim by Secretary Clinton that what President Obama is doing is qualitatively different from the past. Drone attacks continue to take toll of innocent lives, violating Pakistan's territorial sovereignty and weakening the elected government. The doubts being expressed about Pakistan's capacity to safeguard its nuclear assets and the unending propaganda against its nuclear programme are considered unfriendly gestures.
To undo the negative after-effects of its selfish policies, the US needs to pay heed to Pakistan's genuine concerns. More help than a mere donation of $110 million is needed to help the IDPs. Unless the issue of Kashmir is resolved in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiris, there is little hope of peace in South Asia. It is time the US uses its clout to get the core issue resolved.




2. Would India listen?



EXCEPT for the Indians, who are in a constant state of denial on the issue, no one looking at the Subcontinent could deny the existence of the Kashmir dispute and its obvious fallout in the form of strained relations between Pakistan and India, which vitiate the political atmosphere in the entire region and impede its progress. The human suffering, as the local population struggles against the illegal and oppressive Indian occupation, gives birth to the phenomenon of militant resistance. Even the American political and media circles, which had overlooked the issue for quite some time for political and strategic reasons, have begun urging for its solution, calling it a "festering sore", as they themselves confront the reality of militancy. The world now realises what Pakistan has been trying to bring home to it, that without a just and proper settlement of the dispute, the road to peace and development that puts an end to militant feelings is littered with insurmountable potholes.
The New York Times has, in an editorial written after the Congress party's victory in recent elections, stressed, "Ignoring Kashmir is no longer an option". But in case India fights shy of resolving it, the paper endorses the proposal of South Asia observer Stephen Cohen that the dispute could be approached through first tackling the environmental and water issues, which have a bearing on it as well.
It is a pity that New Delhi has been turning a deaf ear to such wise counsel. However, one would like to hope that, if only for the good of the poor teeming millions of the Subcontinent, it sees reason. There is need for world powers to come forward and exercise their influence with India. Candidate Barack Obama, who correctly visualised Kashmir's input in the dark regional scenario while on the campaign trail, appeared to have backed down on entering the White House under pressure from the Indian lobby. He should reflect on the implications of leaving this "sore" unhealed for the US policy objectives and seriously take up the matter.



3. Balochistan imbroglio.


IT is quite comforting to know that the chieftain-elect of the Bugti tribe, Mir Aali Bugti, grandson of the late Akbar Bugti, has advocated other means than violence to secure the rights of the Baloch. He has also appealed for unity in the Bugti tribe. Though the military operation forced him to take refuge in the mountains along with his cousin Nawabzada Brahamdagh Bugti, he has not lost his cool. He has done well by distancing himself from those who are indulging in subversive propaganda and activities in Balochistan. As a Baloch leader, he could play an effective part in mainstream politics.
Concurrently, there is a consensus in the country that a solution to the conflict prevailing in Balochistan has to be found. Recently, Mian Nawaz Sharif aired his sentiments saying that the PML(N) would take up the case of the Baloch in the same way it struggled for the restoration of the deposed judges. The PPP Co-Chairman offered apologies for the harm done in the past. But the past injustices cannot be wiped out by promises; they have to be redressed. Mere promises would not suffice to remove the sense of alienation prevailing at present. During General Musharraf's rule, the Baloch were maltreated. The military operation launched by the regime resulted in the extrajudicial killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti and other Baloch leaders, thus increasing resentment. The present government, therefore, must capitalize on the opportunity that has been created by the goodwill gesture from the new Bugti leader.

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CSS 2009, 2010, 2011 Qualifier