The measure of alienation that has taken root in Balochistan can be gauged from Senator Hasil Bizenjo’s statement that since the murder of these nationalist politicians the singing of the national anthem in the morning is no longer the practice in schools in Balochistan

There is a sense of cautious optimism as reports come in about progress in military operations, pushing back the Taliban advance into Dir and Buner. Earlier, the heightened concern stemmed from the perception that there was virtually nothing stopping their inexorable advance. Local resistance was efficiently crushed as those choosing to take up arms were no match for the superior armoury deployed by the Taliban.

Even Maulana Fazlur Rehman of the JUI felt it incumbent to point out that it was only a matter of time before the Taliban got to the head of Tarbela and then there will be nothing but the Margalla hills standing between them and Islamabad.

There were similar observations from policy-makers in the US and other western countries, highlighted by the media. Some of this was doubtless hype but it did seem to swing opinion behind the task of taking some effective counter-measures before it was too late. To what extent the operation succeeds and is backed up by necessary police action and much needed development work remains to be seen.

There is, however, a troubling aspect to the operation. And that is the use of air power. Innocent people are the unfortunate victims in almost every armed conflict, but the use of such arsenal multiplies the loss of life manifold by making it extremely difficult to discriminate between the enemy and a desperate populace. This is very much a humanitarian concern in its own right and certainly much more needs to be done by the government for the very large number of internally displaced persons who have been forced out of their homes as a result of the fighting.

But there is also the risk of alienating large numbers and pushing them into the ranks of the Taliban. The same logic applies to the use of drones. The US may think of this as a successful strategy in terms of `degrading’ the Taliban leadership but the question is: at what cost? And with leadership among the Taliban dispersed among so many factions how critical to the effort is this degrading likely to be? There are reports now that some of the Taliban leadership, including Mullah Omar, may be in a refugee camp in Quetta. Is it possible for us to support a drone attack on the refugees?

Let us agree that there can be no quick fixes in this war in which a military offensive can only be one key component. We should learn from the way President Musharraf handled the Lal Masjid issue. First, unbelievably, it was allowed to simmer for nearly half the year and then in an effort to resolve it within days there was the use of indiscriminate firepower. Let us not make the same mistake again.

As if we did not have enough to cope with in the north-west of the country, things are coming to a head in Balochistan in the south-west as well. The simmering discontent in the province goes back almost to the time that Pakistan became independent. The absence of provincial autonomy and the denial of a fair share of resources has been part of Balochistan’s grievances articulated over decades. Most recently, the killing of three Baloch nationalist leaders sparked widespread rioting and excesses against settlers.

The measure of alienation that has taken root in Balochistan can be gauged from Senator Hasil Bizenjo’s statement that since the murder of these nationalist politicians the singing of the national anthem in the morning is no longer the practice in schools in Balochistan. This government has shown some readiness after assuming office to address some of the major concerns of the Baloch people. But last week, the advisor on interior, seeking to explain the unrest in Balochistan, informed the Senate that India is supporting the Balochistan Liberation Army in order to fuel an insurgency in the province. Further, that Brahamdagh Bugti was living in Afghanistan seeking Indian and US support for the cause.

Whatever the veracity of Mr Malik’s claims, the first order of business surely is to redress the grievances that are at least in part responsible for the unrest in the province and could well allow others to take advantage. Historically, Centre-Balochistan relations have followed a certain pattern that needs to be urgently reviewed. As senators from both sides of the aisle have demanded, a parliamentary committee on Balochistan should be constituted in consultation with the legislators from that province. And it must be mandated to deal with key aspects of the issue of provincial autonomy.

The recommendations of the parliamentary committee that held negotiations with Nawab Akbar Bugti almost exactly four years ago in March 2005 were never implemented. At the time he had protested at the fact that these made no mention of two key demands: no more cantonments to be built in Balochistan and the handing over of the Gwadar port to Balochistan.

Whatever the extent to which these and other demands can be accommodated, we can choose to ignore them entirely only at great risk to ourselves.

Clearly, India remains a key concern for our security establishment. There is a history, to state the obvious, between the two countries. Kashmir remains among the outstanding issues that need to be resolved. But we should keep in mind that a war against India is not on the horizon and we have formidable fighting capability in the event that such a war does come to pass, sometime in the future. But first, there is battle for our existence that we have to win in the here and now.

Meanwhile, we could do worse than learning from China in its dealings with India. Despite unresolved border disputes between the two countries and an adversarial relationship stretching back decades, the current volume of trade between the two stands at $51 billion. Neither side is prone to drop its guard with regard to the other. And nor should we. But the lessons to be drawn from the China-India relationship should be obvious.

Abbas Rashid lives in Lahore and can be contacted at abbasrh@gmail.com