Some victories but pitfalls ahead BY Shafqat Mahmood

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The difficult times are by no means over but it has been almost a month without a terrorist attack in the urban centres of the country. The last major incident was in Karachi but all kinds of charges are flying around about it. No one quite knows what its origin was.

It could have been a product of the murky underworld of Karachi. It could have had something to do with land mafias in the city or with politics. The continuing rounds of target killings, in which hundreds have been killed, strongly suggest a local connection. But, the details are sketchy and a final determination difficult.

What is more obvious is the impact of the South Waziristan operation on the rest of the country. While there was an upsurge in terror attacks soon after it began, these had been planned earlier. Once that fury was spent, the terrorists' arsenal seems to have depleted.

The successful military campaign in South Waziristan denied these barbarians sanctuaries and disrupted their command and control system. It made their rank and file flee and deprived them space to engineer new terror attacks. It has resulted in this period of relative calm.

Actually if one compares the situation with that of a year ago, much has changed. This time last year, the terrorists appeared to have an upper hand. The entire Malakand division was in ferment and major parts of it, particularly Swat, were lost. Waziristan was literally a no-go area with the likes of Baitullah Mehsud declaring a state within a state.

The turnaround began with Swat. It was a tricky operation and resulted in a massive displacement of the people. The army not only successfully routed the terrorists but also relocated nearly two million IDPs back within months. It took meticulous planning, daring execution and great sacrifice. It is an achievement the entire nation can be proud of.

We are sometimes chary of giving praise to our armed forces because of our history of military interventions. And, because the army in particular is still a powerful institution, a tribute to it raises many a cynical eyebrow. But, the fact is that the army and the air force have so far performed brilliantly in these battles against terrorists.

The South Waziristan operation is an excellent example. It was always a daunting and difficult exercise. The terrain was intimidating and the militants in the area were in thousands. Yet, the army, ably assisted by the air force, was able to win this territory back in weeks.

Again, it was not easy and many of our brave soldiers lost their lives. In fact, in these campaigns nearly two and a half thousand officers and men have given the ultimate sacrifice. What is more noteworthy is the ratio of officers martyred to men. This is one to ten which in military terms is considered high. It is a glorious example of leading from the front and testament to the officers' training and motivation.

Through these sacrifices, the writ of the state has been re-established in Malakand and FATA. The momentum has shifted away from the terrorists and they are on the run. This does not mean that they will melt away. The problem is not yet over and may not be for some time. But, the initiative is no longer with them.

Military campaigns alone are not a solution to the problem, as the army chief, General Kayani, said in a briefing to the media. They have to be accompanied by political steps and reconstruction. The American mantra of clear, hold, build and transfer has a number of steps. The army can clear and hold but then both the civil administration and the infrastructure have to be built up. Only then, can there be a transfer to normal civil governance.

This is where the governments, both federal and provincial, have to play their roles effectively. War-torn areas have to be restored. The people made to feel that the state cares for them and is there to help them. Some roads and power projects have already been initiated with American help but much more needs to be done. The real battle is for the hearts and minds. If they are not won, any military success will be an illusion.

The situation on the terror front is complicated by the developments in Afghanistan and the cold-start doctrine of the Indian military. The American surge in Afghanistan is beginning but there is a disconnect between its timelines and objectives. It wants to rout the Taliban and build up an effective Afghan state structure, all within a short time span of eighteen months.

This is not going to happen. Since exit is a political necessity for the Obama administration, it will look for a scapegoat for its failure. The most obvious is Pakistan. This could lead to negative consequences for a relationship important to both countries.

It is critically vital for Pakistan to interact with the American establishment and make it understand the difficulties inherent in its new Afghan strategy. This has to be done now so that a course correction is possible or at least Pakistan's point of view is clearly understood. Any mismatch between American expectations and our compulsions has the potential to affect our domestic struggle against terrorism.

A similar negative impact on our fight against terrorism has become visible because of Indian military's attempt to create a cold-start capability. In simplest terms, it means the ability to attack an adversary without warning. This is done by going on the offensive without mobilisation.

If India develops such a capability, obviously the Pakistani military has to be ready to face it. Protestation by the Indians that they have no desire to launch such an attack is not enough. As General Kayani says, his responsibility is to prepare for Indian capability, not become comfortable with its good intent.

In practical terms, this means that a major focus of the Pakistani armed forces will remain India and this will take away both men and material from the fight against terrorism. It is here that the Americans can play an important role in trying to push both countries to resolve disputes.

A guaranteed peace between India and Pakistan would go a long way in making both countries focus on the common challenge of terrorism. Strictly speaking, this is not America's responsibility but it is a point on which its interests and those of India and Pakistan converge.

The challenge is to transcend the burden of history and remove institutional roadblocks that hinder the realisation of a common objective. Americans can play a helpful role in this provided they remain an honest broker. Any action or even an illusion that creates mistrust in either party would be counterproductive.

The framework for success against terrorism thus has many dimensions. Internally, we have to be ready to fight when fighting is necessary but also to reconstruct and govern better. Beyond our borders, we have to increase convergence with allies and adversaries. There is no other way to move forward.



Email: shafqatmd@gmail.com