The Year of our Lord 2009 was about three things: failure of politics, two military successes and a determined judicial organ bent upon inducting an incisive moral dimension into the Pakistani state and society. Imagine; after 3,000 days of a uniformed ruler at the helm a democratically elected government had a truly golden opportunity to give Pakistan governance -- governance in all its dimensions, including the rule of law, control of corruption and lack of violence. But that somehow wasn't in our stars and our democratically government failed on all three counts – the rule of law, control of corruption and lack of violence.

Now, to our military successes. By April 2009, militants had established strongholds in some 10,000 square-kilometres of Pakistani territory in and around Swat, Malakand, Shangla, Buner and Lower Dir. Operation Rah-e-Rast, commanded by Major-General Sajjad Ghani of the 19th Infantry Division and Major-General Ijaz Awan of the 37th Mechanised Infantry Division, cleared areas held by militants.

Our second military success was in South Waziristan where some 5,000 square-kilometres of Pakistani territory had been taken over by militants. On October 17, troops from XI Crops commanded by Lieutenant-General Masood Aslam began their advance towards Makeen, the militant stronghold, from three directions. By December 12, the entire area lost was brought back under government control.

Now to our judiciary. Our judiciary for the past six decades had acted as a mere extension of the executive branch. And, our executive, both civil and military, has for the past six decades taken the judiciary for granted. No more. The judiciary is now forcing both the Pakistani state and society to accept that the "law is above everyone and it applies to everyone. Whether governor or governed, rulers or ruled, no one is above the law, no one is exempted from the law, and no one can grant exemption to the application of the law."

Moving on to 2010. The three themes that would drive Pakistan are: the war on terror, internal political instability and the continuing financial crunch. The war on terror, in return, would be driven by Congressional elections. Obama is going to enlarge America's combat footprint from 48,000 soldiers to 98,000. And, that means a massive spill-over for Pakistan. Consider this: in 2003, Pakistani casualties from terrorist violence numbered 189. In 2007, 3,599, in 2008, 6,715 followed by 11,529 Pakistani lives lost in 2009. The trendline is surely on the rise.

In 2003, there were two suicide bomb attacks. In 2007 there were 56 followed by 59 in 2008 and 80 in 2009. The trendline, once again, is on the rise. In 2004, there was only one drone attack (that killed Nek Muhammad). In 2005, there were two followed by one in 2006 and three in 2007. In 2008 there were 17 and in 2009 there have been close to 50. The trendline, once again, is on the rise.

On the political front, President Zardari has kept every promise that he intended to keep and now Pakistan's political arena is in a state of crisis. The dictionary definition of crisis is, "an unstable condition… involving an impending abrupt or decisive change" or a "crucial, decisive point or situation; a turning point… a process of transformation where the old system can no longer be maintained."

On the economic front, the rate of inflation has come down from a high of 23 per cent at the beginning of 2009 to about half that much. The trade deficit -- and the current account deficit -- is also shrinking. The trendlines on inflation and trade account are both improving. On the internal front, budgetary deficit is going through the roof and the Public Sector Development Programme is on the butcher block. Happy New Year; 'scholars will talk books, butchers will continue to talk pigs'.



The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh 15@hotmail.com