Arif Nizami

Despite the Pakistani army's crushing offensives against the Taliban in Swat, Malakand and, more recently, in South Waziristan, serious policy differences persist between Washington and Islamabad. The pressure on Pakistan to take the fight to North Waziristan to neutralise the Jalaluddin Haqqani network is mounting since the nexus between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban is becoming increasingly obvious.

One manifestation of that was the visit of US special envoy Richard Holbrooke to the region in the wake of the successful suicide attack on a CIA base in Afghanistan on Dec 30, conducted with the joint support of the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban.

Apart from doing the usual meetings with the president, the prime minister and the army chief, Mr Holbrooke met a select group of parliamentarians belonging to different political parties. During the meeting with the parliamentarians the special envoy sounded more like the fictional "Ugly American" who in real life represents a stereotypical perception of loud, arrogant, demeaning and overbearing attitude of most members of the US administration when they interact with their Third World clients.

Although President Zardari in his meeting with Mr Holbrooke termed the surge in US drone attacks and the new US screening regime for Pakistani citizens as "cause for concern," the US envoy was least impressed. In his meeting with the parliamentarians he termed the issue of profiling of Pakistani citizens at US airports as a routine matter. With scant regard for the humiliation caused by profiling on the basis of religion, he reportedly remarked: "What are a few extra minutes for the sake of safety of our citizens?" He brushed aside the issue of drone attacks and their immense collateral loss of innocent lives in a similar perfunctory manner.

When one of the parliamentarians pointed out that US-Pakistan economic ties could greatly benefit if Washington removed restrictions on textile imports from Pakistan, Mr Holbrooke evasively responded that it could take years as it involved the interests of textile businesses in South Carolina. Obviously, winning votes for the Democrats is as important, if not more, than winning the hearts and minds of the people of Pakistan.

Notwithstanding the serious divergence of views, Mr Holbrooke thought that Pakistan-US relations have vastly improved in the past one year. In the same breath, however, he lamented the visa problems being faced by the US diplomatic and aid missions in Pakistan. He claimed that owing to inordinate delays in granting of visas to American personnel the disbursement of $1.5 billion aid earmarked under the Kerry Lugar Bill is yet to take place. He added: "If you do not want this money it is up to you."

Mr Holbrooke, on the eve of his visit to New Delhi, also made it plain that although Washington welcomed better ties between India and Pakistan, it had no plans to mediate between them. On the other hand, US defence secretary Robert Gates, while visiting India, praised New Delhi's "restraint" after the Mumbai attacks. It is obvious that in sharp contrast to their attitude towards Pakistanis, most visiting US dignitaries are extremely cautious not to ruffle any feathers while engaging the Indian leadership.

Our parliamentarians, including luminaries like Asfandyar Wali, Ishaq Dar, Salim Saifullah, Farooq Sattar and Tehmina Daultana, did not care to counter him, or simply walk out, when they were being given a dressing down by a relatively junior-level US diplomat. Military strongmen lacking legitimacy can be forgiven for tolerating the "suck up and kick down" approach of overbearing Western diplomats. An elected leadership is expected to behave differently. But in actual practice all norms of protocol are thrown to the winds when US diplomats are received.

The red carpet is generally rolled out for Mr Holbrooke whenever and wherever he visits Pakistan. A consummate partygoer, he claims personal friendship with Mr Zardari since his days in exile in New York. The president is so fond of Mr Holbrooke that reportedly he once chided his prime minister and foreign minister for not having adequate diplomatic skills in dealing with the special envoy.

Islamabad has rightly rejected the idea of a regional contact group which goes beyond the immediate neighbours of Afghanistan. However, at the London conference on Afghanistan scheduled at the end of the month, in which India is also participating, US efforts to include New Delhi in a regional group could gain impetus. It is strange that on the one hand India rejects any third-party mediation over its disputes with Pakistan, but on the other it is keen to fish in troubled waters in Afghanistan and seeks a regional role for itself.

With President Zardari, increasingly embroiled in legal battles in the light of the detailed Supreme Court verdict on the NRO, Islamabad is bound to face increasing pressure form Washington to do its bidding. Senator John McCain, after his recent visit to Islamabad, has already spelled it out by giving the verdict that President Zardari has been weakened as a consequence of the apex court's verdict while Prime Minister Glani is satisfactorily pro-US, in his opinion.

Some US diplomats based in Islamabad have been openly briefing media persons and opinion leaders since the Supreme Court verdict on the NRO that Mr Zardari has been weakened to the extent that in his dealings with the army he is longer of any use for Washington. They also do not see him lasting beyond March.

Like numerous times in the past, such pundits' soothsaying might be pure humbug. But it is obvious that the US is already looking beyond the Presidency as the fulcrum of power to implement its agenda in the region. Optimistic projections of some military analysts that there is no longer a trust deficit between the COAS and senior US military and visiting officials and that Washington fully understands Pakistan military's concerns are noteworthy in this context.

Nevertheless, it is unlikely the US is giving up its mantra any time soon of asking Pakistan to do more in pursuit of its strategic goals in the region. Given the recent belligerent rhetoric of the Indian army chief, the Pakistani military has no cogent reason to change its strategic paradigm. Weak political institutions and a failing economy dependant upon US largesse and IMF bailouts is a recipe for disaster. Squabbling politicians who refuse to rise above their narrow interests have made matters worse. In this scenario the hapless Pakistani people can see impending disaster looming on the horizon.

President Obama after his first year in office increasingly sounds like his predecessor George W Bush, whose post-9/11 policies had made the world a far less safer place to live. As the Spanish newspaper ABC recently commented in an editorial: "After all, this is the president who ramped up the bombing of Pakistani villages and ordered another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan." In the wake of increased profiling of Muslims Obama's much-touted dialogue with Islam has come to naught. Nearer home, thanks to a manifold increase in suicide attacks, a sense of insecurity pervades amongst the Pakistanis compared to a year ago.



The writer is a former newspaper editor. Email: arifn51@hotmail.com