The incumbent government must fear its own president and PPP co-chairman, Zardari, becoming its undoing. Prime Minister Gilani must have felt more than once that despite its commendable achievements for the last two years on the political front, his government is not getting due credit from the media, the judiciary and the public. Deep introspection must have led him to the conclusion that his government has been defamed by none other than its own president, who is perpetually involved in naïve cronyism at the price of fissures within party ranks and irritating the powers that be.

From the very beginning, Zardari picked Salmaan Taseer, Zulfiqar Mirza, Qayyum Soomro and Rehman Malik and ignored political heavyweights and sane leaders like Farhatullah Babur, Aitzaz Ahsan, Amin Faheem and Raza Rabbani. Politically mature and seasoned party loyalists like Aitzaz Ahsan would be more suitable for appropriate change towards a democratic system.

After the installation of democratic government, the establishment played the game of a love-hate relationship with the US in response to the Americans' unwarranted advances to the detriment of our national interests. In this scenario, Mr Zardari preferred to play to the US tunes. Over and above that, Zardari placed sensitive security and foreign matters in the hands of cronies who had been in the bad books of the establishment on account of their suspected links with foreign capitals.

Astonishingly, Zardari ignored the history of India-Pakistan relations and declared India a friend. Consequently, he was compelled to stay away from handling relations with neighbouring countries and interfering in security matters. During this tussle, no US help came to the president for his rescue. Resultantly, he has been rendered a silent spectator, but that episode of mistrust still haunts the relations between Zardari and establishment.

As a consequence of degrading surrenders before the establishment, Zardari lost face with the US as well. Notorious for single-mindedly pursuing narrow interests in the region, the US has again started direct dealings with the real power-wielders in Pakistan. Every emissary of the US visiting Islamabad meets Zardari and Gilani for a few minutes, but spends hours in the GHQ to iron out all important issues. People who are well-versed with US diplomacy know that during the recently held sUS-Pakistan strategic dialogue, no important matters were discussed with civilian leaders before the cameras but in a special meeting at Admiral Mike Mullen's house with "special guests" from Pakistan. This is one strong indication of a realisation within the Obama administration that supporting a beleaguered Zardari who is facing allegations of corruption in the courts and fissures within party ranks runs contrary to the wide-ranging US interests in the region.

Saudi Arabia, a close friend and hugely influential player in our internal politics, is also not happy with the incumbent PPP government. The drift in relations has reached a point that, for the first time, the Kingdom did not invite any Pakistani leader to offset the visit of Indian prime minister to Riyadh. Instead, former CJCS Gen (r) Ihsanul Haq was invited and given a state guest reception in Saudi Arabia. Though our foreign minister has now been invited to visit the Kingdom, people like Gen (r) Ihsanul Haq are deemed to have played a key role in convincing the Saudis to invite the Pakistani foreign minister. In short, the Kingdom did not bless this government with any support and may wish to see Zardari packing.

Being a headstrong leader, Zardari annoyed the judiciary as well. The government showed apathy towards the judges' issue and to later failed to mend fences with the chief justice. This failure created a huge trust deficit between the two pillars of state.

Faced with corruption and contempt of court allegations in the Supreme Court, Zardari does not want to fight out legal battles to show his innocence. Rather, he seems to be using strong-arm political pressures that may ultimately bring down the government like a house of cards. Understandably, the judiciary may heed public sentiments before delivering a judgment on important issues, but such judgments cannot be avoided or altered through political pressures alone.

Notwithstanding some popular achievements like Musharraf's exit from the political scene, conclusion of a consensus NFC Award, the Balochistan package, the creation of a Gilgit-Baltistan legislative assembly, and now the 18th Amendment, Zardari cannot hope for due commendations from the public and the media for the abovementioned reasons and his failure to rehabilitate his public image. On the political front, it is possible that after getting his demands fulfilled in the shape of the 18th Amendments, Nawaz Sharif may very well turn against the government on his own or because of a pat on the back from the Saudis. Similarly, the ANP got Pukhtunkhwa while the MQM and the JUI have already taken their share of the bounty. As such, for all powerful internal and external political and non-political players, Zardari's government has outlived its useful life.

Soon enough, Zardari is destined to choose between the presidency and the office of PPP co-chairman. Besides, the Swiss and contempt cases, he would certainly be dragged into the Supreme Court on the dual-office petition. Most probably, the Supreme Court will ask him to choose between one of the two offices. In such a scenario, he would likely choose the presidential palace over PPP co-chairmanship, as the constitutional immunity to the president may save him for a certain time from going to jail. However, in that case he will lose his grip over the party and the ignored and victimised PPP stalwarts would take their revenge as well. Similarly, the Presidency will serve as a five-star dungeon for the rest of his tenure and he may lose any relevance whatsoever.

So, Zardari would do well to choose party co-chairmanship, as the PPP is his real powerbase. Losing the presidency may hasten his visit to jail again, but Zardari will still remain a powerful political player. However, it is yet to be seen whether Zardari proves a farsighted leader and remain PPP co-chairman or persists in past mistakes of listening to selfish and politically naïve cronies and friends.

Whatever his decision, Zardari should remember the fact that the pleasures of presidency are going to end soon. But the PPP, though injured at the moment, is here to stay and may elevate him to the heights of pleasures and power again. For that to happen, Zardari needs to shun his cronies and run the PPP with the consensus of party veterans and stalwarts who proffered huge sacrifice for the Bhuttos and democracy.

His personal servants and cronies may serve him well, but they cannot please the people of this country. People will be served by leaders like Raza Rabbani and Aitzaz, who always preferred public service over luxurious appointments. These leaders don't run after ministries, but diligently promote the PPP's tradition of pursuing a liberal political agenda aimed at creating a welfare state.



The writer works for Geo TV. Email: saleem .safi@geo.tv