we are such a wealthy nation that they keep on corruption,we damn care
look at facts of transparency international here
Leaders who led the feeble skeleton of Pakistan’s politics crippled the state by implementing economic reforms of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank . By meeting their conditions, they have become powerless, as West has been using them for their own interests. The involvement of West in policy making has blemished the concept of transparency, accountability and fair decisions in state affairs. Thus, corrupt ruling class dare to govern the state. Whereas, the military intervention in politics has been impediment in institution building because of fragile civil rule. The economic reforms have been conveniently implemented in periods of dictators, not only in Pakistan but in other countries also.
IMF – World Bank debt-trap
Western powers are dominant in global financial system and for collective strategic interests – they stimulate political and socio-ethnic conflicts to bring the economy of a country to the ground. An environment is created to portray that for economic stability the country requires assistance from international financial community. Government officials who find no obligation in national interests have been serving US supreme interests – contributing in fracturing the federal structure of Pakistan. These are the people, who meet the demands of IMF and World Bank and in turn get substantial perquisites.
Structural adjustment agreements of IMF and World Bank are actually their demands presented in form of economic reforms, which when implemented result in increase in foreign debt, currency devaluation, inflation, privatization etc. In order to restructure banking sector, new laws are written, independent profit oriented institutions are formed – making government incapable to finance social and economic programs, banking systems and public sector are dismantled. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provide assistance and then demand to increase the penetration of Western investors.
IMF’s agreements require devaluation of currency against dollar though this makes import expensive but they encourage purchasing imports by rewarding loan (against large foreign currency) and lift restrictions on import and export. National budget is made under supervision of IMF; to balance the budget it recommends cutting government spending on social development programs including health and education programs and removing state subsidies. The currency devaluation and removal of subsidiaries (designed to control prices) results in price hikes by three to four times. People’s living standards worsen as basic requirements like food and shelter goes beyond their reach.
IMF-World Bank offer projects like water & agriculture – energy & power development and poverty alleviation for so called sustainable development. This requires disastrous investments by the state but ensures business for bureaucrats, consultants (local-foreign) and construction firms (national – international). They offer services through foreign aid to support trade, training & education and technical assistance. Such development is interlinked with accumulation of huge international debt and it results in vulnerable democratic civil rule and institutions.
In industrial sector, through IMF sponsored programs flow of credit is controlled, socially owned enterprises are auctioned in stock market – increasing enterprise(s) loss. To damage domestic production and exclude domestic producers from national market, interest rates and input prices are raised for national enterprises and imported commodities are flooded in the market – imports are financed from money borrowed under IMF package.
IMF through legal framework implements the reforms and takes a country to industrial decline; outcome of IMF-World Banks prescribed programs: hyperinflation and extreme poverty. Their programs play significant role in creating foundation for anti-democratic leadership and in determining the shape of a society and its class structure.
Institutions like Transparency International (TI) highlight state corruption but never bring forward involvement of corruption in economic reforms (involving privatization). Many countries are victims of IMF’s reforms and the issue is suppressed because of political reasons. Therefore, assistance from West is not lifting Pakistan economically but dragging it into Third World.
Pakistan in a glimpse
The country is globalized and urbanized, with highly rich and extremely poor citizens. The scenario is: inflation, power shortages and depreciation of Pak currency; machine factories and production of local goods are in crisis while consumerism is mounting. Foreign investment in domestic manufacturing is in crisis whereas foreign investment in service sector is increasing.
The role of the state officials in policy formulation is insignificant and has been governed by the international agencies. The government officials have not been taking any sustainable productive initiatives of national projects whereas mushroom-growth of non-governmental organizations has escalated.
Primary-Secondary schools and libraries have been neglected whereas private educational institutes are growing for a specific class. Degree holders have increased whereas scientists are in extinction; information communication technology has been promoted whereas nothing has been projected for establishing the foundation of general science and technology. Independent research is vanishing while consultancy services have become available.
General housing has decreased whereas high-rise buildings and projects destroying ecological balances are obvious. Urban population is increasing, which do not find reasonable wages to survive; outward migration is greater than before whereas proper utilization of own human and material resources is on the verge.
General health opportunities are barely adequate for a common citizen – expensive private clinics are increasing. Crime rate is levitating and so is the insecurity of every citizen. Sustainable employment opportunities have decreased and people under poverty line have increased immensely. The number of poor in the country has risen from 60 to 77 million since 2007 because of food inflation according to Oxfam report (Food Crisis in Pakistan: Real or Artificial, October 16, 2008). The report deduced that the poorest 20 percent spent 50 to 58 percent of their income just to buy cereals and a major problem in Pakistan was absence of authentic data on food production.
Corruption, non-transparent privatization and black economy (bribery, employment of professional criminals and commission from not only government projects but from hidden contracts with foreign companies) are leading Pakistan to more economic troubles. There has never been a phenomenon of accountability.
The course of Pakistan’s politics can be determined because accumulation of capital through criminal activities has become a tradition (in politics). The emergence of rich-corrupt people and their supremacy on national structure has made it easier for global institutions to launch their agenda. By this real democracy cannot grow. The state officials are busy in implementing the programs of IMF to privatize all utility services. Thus, citizens have to bear the consequences because of the policies made for foreign profiteers.
The parallelism in growth of wealth and poverty – power and vulnerability can be observed in this fragmented Muslim nuclear state as it is suffering from artificial nutrition of IMF.
View of West
A jointly prepared Global Futures Assessment Report of United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) referred by The Times of India (February 13, 2005) states that
“by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation”.
A draft of National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) was referred by McClatchy* newspaper (October 14, 2008) in which a US official said that the draft describes Pakistan as being “on the edge” and called the draft “very bleak”.
NIE warned that the government of Pakistan is facing an accelerating economic crisis that is composed of food and energy shortages, escalating fuel costs, a sinking currency and a massive flight of foreign capital accelerated by the escalating insurgency.
A US official who participated in drafting said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as “very bad” and summarized the conclusions about the state of Pakistan as: “no money, no energy, no government”.
West sponsored civil-war
The imposition of economic reforms of IMF-World Bank is interlinked with their covert operations – from organizing military coups to supporting paramilitary armies for civil wars sponsored by US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). They create social and ethnic divisions by supporting liberation armies/separatist groups to collapse federal structure and thus, destabilize sovereign governments.
Pakistan is a geopolitical hub from Washington’s perspective and they have been using it for secret intelligence operations; there are several US military bases in the country. “U.S. Special Forces are expected to vastly expand their presence in Pakistan, as part of an effort to train and support indigenous counter-insurgency forces and clandestine counter-terrorism units” (William Arkin, Washington Post, December 2007). To justify its counter-terrorism programs, Washington increases its covert support to the ‘terrorists’.
Former Minister of Provincial Assembly (MPA), Ameer Bhutto, from Ratodero (Larkana District-Sindh), wrote in the The News International Pakistan (The bubbling cauldron, July 2008):
“If President Musharraf could not stand before Colin Powell’s (US Secretary of State, 2001-04) ultimatum in 2001, there is no reason to believe that he or Prime Minister Gilani can make a stand now. Sporadic US air raids have been continuing [for] some time and there is reportedly significant American troop build-up at the Pakistani-Afghan border recently. American authorities have also confirmed that the US intends to boost its troop presence in Afghanistan in the current year. This, read with President George Bush’s assessment that Taliban and Al Qaeda activities in Pakistan pose the greatest threat and challenge to US security interests, makes it impossible to escape the conclusion that, after Afghanistan and Iraq, Pakistan’s turn has now come.”
The ongoing insurgency in the region is a clue of a difficult and unpleasant situation coming ahead for people of Pakistan. “The Pakistani military is already engaged in a largely unreported brutal war in the border tribal region to stamp out militant groups… Some 120,000 Pakistani troops, including a 60,000-strong locally raised frontier corps, are stationed in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA region). A major offensive is currently underway in the Bajaur area (smallest of agencies in FATA) where clashes are taking place daily and an estimated 300,000 people have fled their homes” (Peter Symonds, WSWS.org*, September 22, 2008).
Whereas in Balochistan, British intelligence is blamed for providing support to liberation army. “In June 2006, Pakistan’s Senate Committee on Defense questioned British intelligence about their involvement in abetting the insurgency in the province (Balochistan) bordering Iran” (Press Trust of India, August 09, 2006). Same kind of intelligence operations by the West have been carried out in other countries they named, developing world.
In Muslim countries, West intervene in their state affairs because of their interest in natural resources of the region. By keeping the local government in dark, World Bank and multinationals conduct operations to grasp potentially valuable areas of a country. Pakistan had proven oil reserves of 300 million barrels (as of January 2006) – Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ) tells. In this context, Balochistan is in focus of West as foreign contractors (British Petroleum, OMV etc) are already there. By this, external creditors will get the control and through their policies, government will be further crippled by not permitting to mobilize its own resources. And with the functions of commercial banks in the province, transaction of money including foreign exchange can be controlled.
From the activities of US, it seems the idea is to politically fracture Pakistan and Iran (through province Sistan-va-Baluchestan) using Baloch nationalism.
“Tehran charges that US Special Forces units are using bases in Pakistan for undercover operations inside Iran designed to foment Baluch opposition to the regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad” (Selig S Harrison, Pakistan’s Baluch insurgency, October 2006).
The goal is to create social divisions, weaken the ability to resist the invasion by splitting national structure and initiate civil war. Through war, West can manage ownership over the oil and gas resources of the region. The outcome of war will be massive unemployment, which will lead frustrated people to make crimes and/or become part of any militancy group because it will be the only way of earning money, left for them.
In under developed countries, in era’s of dictators especially, not only the state violence intensified but economic reforms were implemented, which resulted in debt escaltion, currency devaluation, poverty elevation, sale of assets, emergence of Western financial institutions and political instability. Eventually economy of those countries weakened.
In the early 1980s, military dictator Zia started pursuing market-based economic reform policies. These reforms began to take hold in 1988, when the government launched an ambitious IMF-assisted structural adjustment program in response to chronic and unsustainable fiscal and external account deficits. The government began to remove barriers to foreign trade and investment, reform the financial system, ease foreign exchange controls, and privatize dozens of state-owned enterprises (Bureau of South & Central Asian Affairs , July 2008).
Benazir (1988) consolidated different privatization committees and undertook a study on privatization strategy from British consultants. The government (1993-96) privatized financial institution, power plant, energy companies, industrial units, telecommunication company and other units.
Nawaz (1990-93) privatized industrial units, banks and several units of Punjab Industrial and Development Board and of fertilizer – gas sector.
Both the governments were eager to implement IMF’s demands without understanding the repercussions on country’s economy and common citizen. And result was lower rate of industrial and economic growth. Certain units in the industry were running efficiently but were privatized. In those governments, the buyers purchased the factories, removed the machinary after paying few installments and sold the real estate. This industrial disaster promoted corruption as state officials are beyond accountability. The process of selling of assets was never transparent; Sugar Mill_Pasrur (District Sialkot, Punjab) was sold by Chief Minister (Punjab) for a “token price of Rs. one only”, according to Company Review – daily DAWN (May 1991).
“Displeased by the Benazir Bhutto government’s (1993-96) inability to implement its recommendations, the IMF welcomed the Nawaz Sharif government when it came to power in March 1997. In October that year, the IMF approved a three-year financing package for Pakistan equivalent to $US 1,588 million in support of a medium-term “adjustment and reform” program. It required tightened control of government expenditure, fundamental changes to the tax administration machinery and an expansion of the net of the general sales tax (GST) and the agricultural tax.” (Vilani Peris, WSWS.org, November 25, 1999).
…Musharraf (1999-2007) won Washington’s support by implementing privatization and deregulation programs that have only exacerbated the plight of Pakistan’s rural and urban poor. …the Musharraf regime is implementing a $6 billion privatization scheme that includes the sell-off of banks and electrical power utilities (Joseph Kay, WSWS.org, April 30, 2002).
Eric Ellis wrote in his report (Privatizing Pakistan, October 2005), “The targets include Javedan Cement (Karachi), Mustehkam Cement (Haripur), Pakistan International Airlines, Pakistan Steel Mills and the country’s upstream and downstream oil companies, Pakistan Petroleum and Pakistan State Oil Co.”.
During eight years of Musharaf-Shaukat privatization push, corruption of 1550 Billion Rupees has taken place, according to conservative estimate of Anti-Privatization Alliance (APA) Pakistan. The government privatized financial institutions (HBL, UBL, MCB), Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited, Pakistan Steel Mills and Karachi Electrical Supply Corporation. Whereas privatization of fertilizer public companies (Pak Saudi Fertilizer, Pak Arab Fertilizer) led to severe crisis of agriculture. Both the puppets left politically fractured and economically crippled Pakistan without facing any trial.
Economic Fracturing – Pakistan
IMFs agreements have been put in effect by previous governments and now current government (Zardari, 2008) has applied to IMF for assistance. This step will lead to instability and will hit the poor – stimulate unrest and chaos among the people of the four provinces working under federal structure. Central government distributes financial resources to support development programs and when the funds will be utilized in clearing the debts or frozen on orders of IMF – there will be nothing for the provinces as institutions are being damaged and no industry is in a position to sustain.
“The current spell of load-shedding is causing productivity loss of Rs.1 billion (or $11.5 million) a day to the textile industry besides threatening the livelihood of 2.28 million textile workers. Around 500,000 of them have already lost their jobs” (The News, October 23, 2008). Whereas IMF reduces debt on condition of selling profitable state owned enterprises at very low prices.
The type of restructuring IMF demands, has been started by the government – the results will be devastating. Privatization Minister declared,
“The privatization of public-sector entities will remain the cornerstone of the government’s economic agenda.” (Privatisation Commission , November 04, 2008).
The economy of a country can be devastated through mismanagement in privatization of energy-power sector. The game plan seems to fracture the federation.
“Companies earmarked for partial or total privatization include: the National Power Construction Company, Jamshoro Power Company, Faisalabad Electric Supply Company, Heavy Electrical Complex, and the Qadirpur gas field. The government says it hopes to raise between $2 billion and $3 billion through this latest privatization wave.” (Keith Jones, WSWS.org, November 13, 2008).
Due to lack of transparency, no one has the knowledge of contracts, which have been signed in telecommunication, power and oil-gas sectors. Disqualification of Chief Minister Punjab (February 25, 2009) through controlled judiciary is an indication towards smooth implementation of IMF’s ‘demands’ by the present government. On the same day, Finance Adviser Shauqat Tareen said, “IMF has approved the delivery of the second installment of $800 million of its loan to Pakistan…” (Daily Times, February 26, 2009). Thus, clarification of the pattern of development is necessary to prevent restructuring of such nature.
The sovereignty of the country is being damaged by meeting the demands of the West. By the global intervention, democratic principles have been ruined and institutions destroyed – resulting in weak democratic processes. The country’s development strategy is determined by the bureaucratic global institutions; different governments made several policies, which are actually based on the framework set by those institutions.
After the period of dictator in 1977-88, every government inherited the debts of its predecessor. There is always another solution instead of begging for financial assistance from the West. Otherwise, the federation will never be able to make decisions independently and future generations will always be paying debts. A major change in economic policy is required to decrease the comparison of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). For overall growth, economic, social and institutional reforms are required.
“[To] improve revenue through tax collection, we have to reform the whole system. It is not the question of devolving the process to lower tiers. Moreover, we have to educate people that it is their responsibility to pay taxes; if they want development, they have to pay their share of taxes. … Of 165 million Pakistani’s, only 1.3 million pay taxes.” Dr. Zafar Moeen Nasir, Chief Economic Researcher, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) (The News, January 18, 2009).
Economic nationalism – transparent investment in the public sector is necessary. For the key industries and financial institutions, nationalization programs are required – this will damage interests of multinational capital, which has monopolized the economy. Iranian Prime Minister in 1953 nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company ; after 1979, eighty percent companies have been nationalized. Israel nationalized its largest banks in 1983 after a financial crisis.
Designing policies to attract foreign investment in new risky business enterprises is understandable but privatization in context of IMF is a disaster to the economy. Because it is planned by capitalists to increase private capital only; gradually, social growth and domestic production halts and the notion of social welfare decline in the society.
In public sector, it is correct that due to political interference (involving over-staffing) output is reduced but the concept that private sector is efficient overshadows the fact that privatizing national (revenue generating) assets at rock-bottom prices on demands of IMF cause huge loss to the country.
“If the chief justice [Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry] of Supreme Court of Pakistan had not stopped the privatization of Pakistan Steel Mills Karachi in 2006, the former [Musharaf] regime would have sold most of the public institutions on throwaway prices. This would have been like selling Pakistan.” (Farooq Tariq, Labor Party Pakistan, June 11, 2008).
There is dire need to overcome the ideology, which glorify discrimination and transform the environment of bureaucracy, which portray inequality. The concept is to be tailored to make government servants realize including the president that they are public servants; luxurious castles used by them must be utilized for educational institutions and research. Independent foreign policy must be crafted and US military bases must be closed.
Pakistan has the potential to develop and become a modern Muslim welfare state because it has human and natural resources. But the potential of people and their attempts to build a democratic society have been obstructed by the puppet regimes. People have lost faith in the institutions of the country; political-security situation has been deteriorated by the growing social tension and economic crisis. A society is to be furnished where citizens have the authority to lead their lives – find justice without fear.
To rise, a revolution is needed; the country requires sacrifice from educated people. Mitchell Bard, former editor of Near East Report* of American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), describes the source of strength of (America’s Pro-Israel) lobby in this manner “Jews have devoted themselves to politics with almost religious fervor.”
Muslims have to unite to deal with the mechanism of the West fracturing their national structures and this requires building their own financial institutions free of Western intervention. They have to generate ideas based on knowledge of the religion and have to struggle accordingly to construct institutions and free themselves from the slavery of the West.
First research paper of Insaf Research Wing (IRW)
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
big facts about expenditures of politicians
3 crore rupees/ month -------------------Mr.president's expenditure
2.5 crore rupees/ month------------------prime minister's expenditure
30 lac rupees/ month per minister 80 ministers= 240 million/month
5 lac to each minister
annual vip movemnet expenditure 165 crore
war on terror 860 billion rs
Nawaz Sharif, who is a billionaire, pays only Rs5,000 tax, whereas Rehman Malik pays only Rs20,000.
apart from these
annually millions of rupees are lost somewhere in system because of decisions of politicians
corruption in all ministries and institution is k ilawa he jis ka koi hasab nahi ----khulla khaata
if only these expenditure are minimised and corruption decreases,we need no loan.
and corruption of public is k ilawa he jo akhri katra be nachor laeti he
i am not an expert of economy.but i can understand something is fishy
yeah to hui corruption in economy
corruption in power abi baki he
Politician's corruption indulges macroeconomic crisis in Pakistan
Recent SBP reports shows progress in overall economy of Pakistan but this progress linked with IMF and other loans. Economic progress and stability with the help of loans could not be sustainable. Such progress is indicator of further deterioration in economy. SBP also discuss the uncertainties of the sustained economic progress. It is important to adopt effective policy measures to tackle with forecasted threats to economy to achieve sustained economic growth. In the last twenty-two months the tight monetary policy chased by various criticisms both by business community and some of economists. Most of circles were of thought that world wide the monetary policy in most of developed countries eased for the sake of investment due to financial crisis but Pakistan was opposite to this practice. Actually the socio-political and macroeconomic scenario of Pakistan is quite different from developed countries. Continuing political instability, rising social unrest, riots and protests, corruption of civil servants, bureaucrats and politicians all this in combine provide no surety and security to ease monetary policy in high inflation and continues borrowing from central bank.
The dean of NUST Business School, Islamabad criticizes monetary policy in one of his article of daily newspaper of Pakistan "the News". He says that "SBP should consider and analyze various macroeconomic developments which are likely to unfold during the remaining period of the current fiscal year". He discussed various components of current economic situations and criticizes monetary policy in presence of such unstable and uncertain environment. He furthered quote that" no country has ever achieved sustained higher economic growth in the midst of a rising debt service burden"
Hence either the monetary policy tight or easy it remains a point of criticisms and dissatisfaction among the economists, business and investment communities. Monetary policy changing depends on macroeconomic stability of Pakistan and this stability farther linked by various issues. However the rope of all these issues is strictly tied with one hook which is too much corruption of politicians. Various circles criticizing and highlighting the corruption of politicians clearly but unfortunately there is no immediate action. Pakistan is a country which built on the foundations of Islam and luckily it is the only country in the world which achieved on the name of religion Islam. The history of Islam has very transparent, accountable and noble leaders. After the Holy Prophet (P.B.U.H), Hazrat Abu-bakr-Siddique, Hazrat Usman Ghani, Hazrat Umer Farooq and Hazrat Ali all have showed exemplary good governances to all Muslims. There was equality of rights, there was democracy there was concept of open market and investment in their era. There was a proper banking system, judiciary system, and jail system and aid institute at state level to benefit poor in the name of Bait-ul-maal. Nowadays Pakistani Muslims are confused in such a way that they may not have any history to learn from and follow.
In that era of Khulfai-Rashidine Muslims were not symbol of danger whereas they ran the state fully according to Islam. Our leaders are afraid of Islam just because they may catch up in a fully Islamic system. Some of Islamic groups of Pakistan which are called as extremists defame the Islam, in my eyes such people are no more Muslims they may be psychotically sick persons. Taking benefit of these people our politicians show their reluctance towards Islamic system. Whereas by following Islamic system Pakistan could become most beneficial country for investors, security of neighbors and for those who think Pakistan as symbol of threats.
The current constitution of Pakistan is taken as Islamic but my mind could not accept such a law as fully Islamic in which there is spacing for leaders to plunder public money by putting them in extreme poverty and enjoying luxurious life themselves. Even not any other religion either Christianity or others do not allow such constitutional pillage or havoc. This is our constitution which is supporting our corrupt President in addition with various important ministers. By declaring NRO (national reconciliation ordinance) as unlawful about 34 important politicians' highlighted as extreme corrupt. The sign of being noble is to get resigning immediately by those leaders but they are still enjoying the ministries luxurious lifestyle and do not bother of any misconduct.
The corruption, miss management and poor administration of these politicians are a cause of all macroeconomic instabilities in Pakistan. Even poor security system is also due to their poor policies and evil acts. It is norm of Pakistani politicians that when any particular party become in power it accused previous governments for all sorts of problems and fails to tackle with the situation. Current government of Pakistan follow the same norm and blame Musharraf era for all sorts of problems and failed themselves to adopt effective and fair policy measures to tackle with all the issues and crises. Now I discuss various major crises which are mostly due to improper management, policy making and corruption of politicians.
Sugar crisis were not new to handle with, they started in 1999-2000 when due to extreme heat stress its production decreased by 22% and it was forecasted in 2000 that further 17% production will be decreased in 2001. These percentages in production dropout are not negligible the current situation start arising from that time. The current government blame Musharraf government for this issue, no doubt extreme dropout in production occur in their era but despite this there was no shortage of sugar in this way during his time. I am not praising Musharraf era and blaming current government, the actual matter is to adopt uncorrupted fair policy measures. Pakistan is a third biggest country of producing sugar but despite this there is huge sugar crisis. Actually other than production shortage there is a problem of dues between growers and mill owners. Growers demand higher price i.e. Rs 250/40kg for their raw material whereas official rate is Rs. 100/40kg and millers complain about increase in production cost and imports. Other reasons of sugar crisis are late crushing by mill owners, stagnant can yield, low import parity prices and non-payment of dues to growers by mills. Growers feel underweight of cane at purchase centers and mill gates. Undue deduction by mill owners to growers is 10%. 65% of farmers decrease total sugarcane land area due to water shortage, behaviors of mills, late payments, increased input cost, diseases and rodent attack.
Government put forward various interventions like issuing export permit to mills, importing sugar on public account, controlling retail distribution below the market price through utility stores, sugar mill provided the government's assistance in situation, supply to utility stores has been doubled to provide relief to the public. Nevertheless despite all these interventions there are no improvement in the provision of sugar because any sort of intervention by the government does not forget to take out its own benefit and, hence all sorts of policy measures are just slapdash. Huge quantity of sugar stocked by mill owners and lot of sugar smuggled through border. There could be no shortfall despite huge production dropout if all the sugar utilized lawfully within country. Most of mill owners are themselves politicians. They are at fault for non-payment of dues to growers and involved in smuggling through Afghan border. As politicians are themselves involved in illegal acts then definitely they could not adopt effective policy measure that could control the entire situation. Any policies made by such government left a lot of space for evil acts hence all policy measures are fraudulent.
On 9-febuary-2010 I saw a slide on news channel that" no one can buy sugar from utility stores without CNIC and children below 18 years cannot buy sugar". In Pakistan so many poor people have no ID cards especially those who live in remote areas could not access cities to make ID cards. This policy adopted to minimize the flow of sugar also one person could buy only 2kg sugar once. In Pakistani huge families 2kg sugar is requirement of per day only. People have to daily lined up with ID cards to buy sugar. Government put strict rules on poor public but could not want to adopt such policy measures that could stop smuggling and illegal stocking of sugar by mill owners who themselves are politicians are linked with political groups. Sugar and flour and various expensive food products smuggled through Afghan border and others and police and politicians all involved in this act.
These all evil activities and financial mismanagement should be treated strictly and effective and transparent policies should be adopted by government to tackle with whole situation. However under the umbrella of highly corrupted leadership it may be impossible for government. Secondly to tackle with shortage in production there is a need for seed treatment in sugarcane cultivation by research institutes. Sugar mill should arrange and distribute high quality of seeds along with good and effective fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides at low rates to minimize diseases and rodent attacks. Demonstration plots should be organized by agricultural departments, NGOs and research institutes to enhance the local knowledge about better and advance farming activities.
In Pakistan main source of water is canal irrigation system including two major dams Mangla dam and Terbella Dam. River Indus is the life line for Pakistan's agriculture, nearly 450,000sqm. It is the largest river of South Asia having length of 1800 miles or 2900Km. Total supplies available to agriculture includes rainfall, surface water from river Indus and tributaries, ground water, sewage water and sea water. Annual rainfall in Pakistan varies from 100mm in Sindh to 1000mm in foot-hill and northern areas with average 400mm. About 60% come during monsoon. Rainfall contributes to 1650 thousand hectors meter of land. Thus 10mm of rain provides 100cubic meter/hec. Sea waters exist along 1,050Km coast of Pakistan and unusable due to salination but some palm and coconut trees can be grown using saline water. Sewage water could be used for production of crops like vegetables, fodder, oil palms, coconut etc by recycling.
Total quantity of available water is 160 million acre feet which includes river water and ground water. Rivers contribute 136 MAF and ground water contributes 24MAF. Out of this available water only 101.4 MAF reaches the modules, after deducting losses of the system i.e. seepage and distribution. 35 MAF water wasted in sea during floods every year, 45% lost due to seepage i.e. 45.6MAF and 15% lost due to improper irrigation system i.e. 8.4MAF. Hence total water arrived at farm gates is 56MAF. Total water required in 200 was 78.7 MAF there was a shortage of 22.9 MAF. It was predicted in 2000 that Pakistan will need 170MAF in future.
The first paragraph shows that there is lots of enough water in Pakistan whereas second paragraph immediately show shortage of water. Both the paragraphs in combine show that there is enough water to fulfill our requirements but the need is to use it properly through advance technologies and by repairing the systems frequently. Our government blames India to spoil the agreement did in 1959 over the distribution and use of Indus water. No doubt India has spoiled the agreement but Pakistan should be accountable towards use of its own water. Our provinces are quarreling over distributions and provision of water. Whereas distribution of country in provinces does not mean that everyone has its own territory to deal with, and he/she is not responsible for others. Our leaders of all provinces should understand that their consensus over distribution of all sorts of resources is in favor of whole country. Nevertheless unfortunately each province just wants to give loss to his brother province.
To resolve water issue it is important to solve political battle over distribution of water among provinces. On the other hand water should be saving from all sorts of losses through effective and costless mechanical techniques. There are lots of solutions available on Internet, research institutes should give solutions to all such problems through advance study of water saving technologies and government should effectively follow these without considering personal selfishness. Rainwater and flood water should store in time before it flows to sea. Available water resources should be evaluating and utilize effectively. Irrigation system should be repaired to improve and develop according to current needs also policies should be developed for judicious and effective use of irrigation water. In addition it should be evaluated frequently that what are the water requirements of various crops a changing weather effect the requirement of crops with the passage of time. In addition farmers should be well educated through seminars at local level by government, NGOs and research institutes about modern agricultural techniques along with analyzing, existing indigenous knowledge about cropping to reduce ill practices and enhance significant and effective practices did by farmers. Participation by farmers should be enhanced in policy making about water using, implementation of taxes and subsidies, about price fixing and about import-export rules and regulations. There should be effective coordination and understanding among farmers, water associations, government department and NGOs. Farmers should be put at center while discussing and solving agricultural issues. If Pakistan succeeded to overcome internal water problems then it could become strong enough to solve external water problems i.e. problem of Indus water treaty with India. We know very well that any influential personality could make its voice high and strong enough to listen and accept by others. Therefore Pakistan should develop itself like such a personality whose voice become influential internationally. For this they have to overcome internal problems immediately.
There is another habit of our leaders that they wait for any issue until it does not rise as much that it puts them in deep waters. They do not want to adopt a policy of calling a surgeon before one is wounded. Energy crises are also ones of such crises. These crises do not occur naturally they are manmade. It could be taken as manmade disaster in Pakistan. Energy crisis is just like sugar crisis as there is again problem of payments there. Energy crises named as circular debt issue in Pakistan due to circular nature of non-payments of dues. In Pakistan energy crises raised when IPPs stopped to generate more electricity and at that time current government habitually start blaming previous government for energy shortage. Whereas this government immediately abandoned huge project of Kala Bagh Dam just after getting power by calculating its various environmental drawbacks. This was extremely poor decision of this government. They throw huge amount of money in dustbin foolishly. It was effective if this government minimize its environmental shortcomings by effective adjacent policy measures and through further small projects. The need was only of technical and transparent minds. Another example of such foolish decision of care-taker government was abandoning of Neelum-Jhelum project. It was constructed in 2003 at cost of $1.5billion it got abandoned by care-taker government. Later it revised by this government worth $205 billion. Delay costing the country fortune for extra $750 million.
Now it is easy to decide that how much previous government was at fault and how much present one. The circular debt issue should also be solved immediately by government in the beginning. The government has enough money to increase the number of ministers, to increase number of bullets proof cars, to visit foreign countries and to buy expensive power generators i.e. RPPs but they are unable to solve circular debt issue. Actually here again politicians take out their personal benefit. The current report by ADB on RPPs clearly shows the selfish nature of government. According to this report "there are major objections regarding the viability of the projects and tariff structure and doubted transparency in the deals which seemed to have made in hast. There are post-bid changes in the agreements that benefited the owners of the RPPs and NEPRA rules were also violated in these deals". Besides various objections by the report one of the most important is that, government failed to go for the most economical solution and fully utilize the already existing capacity. (The News Sunday 7/02/10).Before the ADB report transparency international also highlights the government corrupt policy in this regard, but no actions were taken. It is important that Supreme Court should take notice of this government policy in the light of ADB report before the huge financial lose.
The shortfall of energy greatly influences the macroeconomic stability. Due extreme shortage of electricity about 400 factories closed down. The shortfall of energy cause loss of Rs.1 billion a day to the textile industry, threatening livelihood of 2.28 million textile workers around 500,000 already lost jobs. "Merrill Lynch has estimated that everyone percent of GDP growth in Pakistan requires an increase in electricity supply of 1.25 percent. Thus, a GDP growth rate of 7 percent per year will require an increase in electricity supply of 8.8 percent". (The News, Business page, 6/02/10).
The government should put their interests back and work for the prosperity of Pakistan. They should solve circular debt issue immediately and try to put forward more effective steps towards it solution. All the hydral power stations and dams should be repaired accordingly to rehabilitate the existing electricity capacity in Pakistan.
Miscellaneous issues and crisis:
Besides above discussed major crisis of Pakistan that contributes to macroeconomic instability, the government's poor and corrupt policy making further dampen the economy and put the public fortune in ditch of risks, challenges and uncertainties. Insecurity situation rises with the emergence of this government which clearly shows the weaknesses of the government. After the successful Swat operation the gap between further operations give, place to terrorists to adjust themselves according to rising circumstances. Rising terrorism and insecurity hit the economic activities too much. Government should take effective and non-stop policy measures to tackle with the situation. However due to lazy and poor policy making, now they move towards negotiation with Taliban. Various circles in the politics of Pakistan are in favor of negotiation, but a common man question is that what could be the meeting point with Taliban? On the other hand according to Tehreek-e-Insaf there are good and bad Taliban, this mean we have to search out good Taliban negotiate with them and kill all other bad Taliban? If Americans ready to negotiate with Taliban it does not mean that we should also, because negotiations with Taliban do not effect daily life of America it would only effect the people of Pakistan and especially women of Pakistan. Whatever the Taliban are good or bad, but all the Taliban demands are to follow unislamic norms which abolish the human rights defined by Islam and further declared by United Nations Human Rights declaration 1948.
Rising insecurity and terrorism give economy as much loss in the beginning of this government that it becomes confused and situation crossed their ability to tackle. Hence due to extreme rising balance of payments government start lending. In the beginning all the foreign aid resources refused government for cash funding due to lack of trust. Finally government knocks the door of IMF. After this other foreign resources also open their doors as government got committed with 11 tough condition of IMF out of 16. Now the debt burden increased a lot and current values of debt certainly predicts the further failure of economy, rising inflation that could increase the number of people below poverty line which is already 34%. Now the public debt is becoming more than RS.8.1 trillion. In December 2009 domestic debt was RS. 4293 billion and total external debt was $53794million. The improvement in various economic figures is also due to influx of these huge debt amounts. In the future major portion of GDP will be utilized to repay these loans and, hence it further deteriorate the social indicators of development i.e. education, health, shelter, employment, poverty and other developmental projects. With rising debts now a single Pakistani owed Rs. 46,648. On the other hand increasing expenditures do not allow economy to become mature which is mostly security related. The war on terrorism alone has cost more than $40billion while the aid received to combat is very less that is $11 billion only. Other than terrorism rising riots in Karachi (a big commercial and industrial hub of Pakistan also known as mini Pakistan) because of ethnic and linguistic issues also hits the growth process. Two coalition political parties of Sindh i.e. MQM and ANP quarrel over language issues putting aside their real duties towards the development.
There is another very important issue i.e. tax evasion. According to joint report of FBR Pakistan, World Bank and Andrew Young School of Public Policy on Tax policy of Pakistan, the total tax evasion in Pakistan during 2007-08 was Rs. 796 billion. It is estimated that globally tax evasion every year is around US $255 billion. Pakistani tax evasion is 4% of overall global tax evasion. Although there is hardly any country in the world which could have excellent tax system but Pakistan is among the worst one. SBP repeatedly suggests in its various reports over economy including quarterly report that tax-to-GDP ratio should be improved. Mostly people related to business community, bureaucrats and politicians are taxed defaulters. According to report by World Bank Pakistan has a potential to increase Tax-to-GDP ratio by 3.5 percent for next five years and if this happens it could overcome a lot fiscal deficit.
All the above discussed problems are easy to solve but the need is only of transparent, accountable, effective and efficient government. Pakistan is touching high ranks in corruption according to transparency international reports. Our politicians are good at deciding and according to personal interests, evidently they have technical and brilliant minds to adopt good policies but they use their brilliance in making policies in favor of their own bank balances which are mostly in foreign countries. Any politician in Pakistan promises the public for their prosperity before taking power but after getting power they only consider their own interests. Our poor people do not have shelter to save them and their small babies from extreme hot and cold weather conditions and our ministers enjoying foreign aid and design such projects and policies that could further enhance their bank balances by sucking sweat and blood of poor people. They may take three times meal in a five star hotel styles but our poor people's babies could not have even single time a feeder of milk in a day. I don't know how our politicians think to do evil acts against innocents in front of their own eyes.
Conclusion and Suggestions
With the help of media, news reports and various reports by international institutes available on Internet we are able to predict the economy of Pakistan. It is needed to put forward immediate measures to tackle the future threats to economy. In this regard first there is needed to clean completely the foundations for corruption. NRO declarations as unconstitutional sort out more than 8000 people who get benefit of this ordinance and, save them after misconduct. Supreme Court has now opened all these cases but there is a need of immediate action to save the Pakistan. Our president along with other 33 companions in the government also enlisted in NRO beneficiaries it is the extreme bad luck of Pakistan to have such leaders in power. In the presence of such leaders not a single positive policy measure could benefit the country because corrupt minds of these politicians do not give place for prosperity.
It is required to establish transparent system to put policy measure to solve various above discussed issues. Sugar crisis, energy crisis, water crisis and all other are just due to corruption. Various international reports showed the personal interests of the politicians towards their interventions to solve the problem. Supreme Court should take notice of these policies on international reports. Independent institutes should all condemn politician's corruption and put forward solid steps to stub down the corrupt politicians
Pakistan is an agricultural economy based country. Agriculture has the main share to economy. It contributes 21.8% to GDP, providing employment to 44.65% of labour force and occupies nearly 60% of total exports. Although in the early years after independence of Pakistan the agriculture share to GDP was 62% but with the passage of time it decreased due to IMF conditions on one hand and poor policy implementations by different governments on the other hand. Various circles blaming climate changes for this decrease but despite huge climate change we still have yet enough water and land to cultivate enough to use locally besides export but the need is only of effective work and policies. To tackle with the agriculture losses water issue should be solved immediately and advance fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides along with good quality seeds and machinery should be introduced in the country. Agricultural problems should be addressed and solved by participatory approach and loss of land due to salination should be rehabilitating and using advance technologies available worldwide.
source : http://pakistanjournal.com/articles/...tan/Page1.html