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Old Tuesday, June 29, 2010
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Post Afghanistan: Interests & stakes BY Saleem Safi

The Arab-led Al-Qaeda and the US are in Afghanistan to settle scores with each other. The US and its Western allies have deployed forces in Afghanistan on the pretext of fighting against Osama bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri and their supporters. On the other hand, Arab, Asian, African, Western, Central Asian and other enemies of the US across the world, have flocked here to fight against the western forces.

Afghanistan is rich in natural resources which still remain unexploited. Therefore, every regional and international player is eyeing this wealth. Afghanistan is also key to Central Asian natural resources. Therefore, there is no regional or international player without stakes in Afghanistan.

The US is interested in controlling Central Asian and Afghan natural resources. Strategically, the US had planned to sit in this country to prevent the future rise of Iran, counter the rising world power China and control Pakistan from Afghan soil. It is fearful of Afghanistan becoming an Al-Qaeda sanctuary once again. It also fears a Taliban government opposed to the Western concepts of democracy and human rights. Other Western countries also define their interests from this perspective. So their interests and concerns are similar to those of the US.

Iran is not amenable to a US stay in Afghanistan for a long period of time. Secondly, it is not going to tolerate an anti-Iran government in Kabul. Iran is making every effort to ensure that these concerns are accommodated by any setup in Kabul.

Russia and the neighbouring Central Asians states have economic, cultural and security stakes in Afghanistan, just like Iran. They would not like the US and the allies to stay in Afghanistan for longer than necessary. Russia feels "encircled" by Nato and the US forces. At the same time, these states are concerned about the possibility of a Taliban-style government emerging in Kabul that would export an extremist interpretation of Islam to the Central Asian states and provide active support to or work as motivation and inspiration for extremists in the Central Asian countries. These states have close economic interests in the future Afghanistan. They would not like the US and Western allies to exploit Central Asian resources. A longer stay of these forces would strengthen the perception that they are eyeing Central Asian natural resources.

China has separate stakes and interests in Afghanistan. It has grown weary of the US presence in Afghanistan for longer term. After the defeat of the Taliban, the establishment of military bases in Nooristan province close to the Chinese border confirms these fears. Similarly, China is least expected to accept the idea of a religious extremist government in Kabul that may potentially cause troubles in its western provinces.

China also eyes Afghan and Central Asian natural resources. It is investing in Afghan mineral resources and has spurred economic diplomacy in Central Asia as well. It considers Afghanistan a close and potential market for its products and a key land route to Central Asian markets.

Apart from other players, India and Pakistan are actively involved in the Afghan conflict to thwart each other's influence and plans in Kabul. India, which is historically close to Kabul at the diplomatic and political levels, wants to preserve that historical influence and prevent the formation of a government that is soft on Islamabad. It wants a government in Kabul that could be used against Pakistan for advancing Indian goals in the region. It supports a government that may counterbalance Pakistan's ambitions in the region.

Strategically, Pakistan has huge stakes in the future setup in Afghanistan. It would not tolerate a pro-Indian a setup. Additionally, it does not want Indian security agents or armed forces on Afghan soil. Any government perceived close to India or expected to raise issues like the Durand Line and Pakhtunistan will no be liked by the Pakistani establishment.

Pakistan has more economic, cultural and political stakes in Afghanistan than any other country in the region.

The stakes and concern of the Arab world under the leadership of Saudi Arabia are confusing at best. Currently, it is officially supporting the US and Nato alliance in Afghanistan due to international obligations. The governments of Arab countries consider Al Qaeda a threat and do not want a return of the Taliban to Kabul which may provide Al Qaeda with sanctuaries.

Ironically, they also like Sunni religious insurgents in Afghanistan. Therefore, they would prefer the Afghan Taliban against an Iran-friendly government. On the other hand, like Pakistan, they are also angry with the US for its support to Israel. They consider the success of the US in Afghanistan as the success of Israel. The most important players, the Taliban and the Afghan government, have contrasting interests and stakes.

Peace and stability could only be restored in Afghanistan without the will and cooperation of the US and its allies, regional players and neighbouring stakeholders. In this backdrop, Pak-Afghan support for reconciliation efforts will not restore peace and stability. This cherished goal will be realised if all the actors join hands to play a constructive role for putting an end to the war. A durable peace is possible if all initiatives for this purpose address the concerns of all stakeholders. Otherwise, ignored stakeholders will stir up trouble and scuttle any peace initiatives. As far as interests are concerned, all interests must adjust their positions to a level that benefits everybody but harms none.



The writer works for Geo TV.

Email: saleem.safi@janggroup.com.pk
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