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Old Saturday, November 27, 2010
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Post Challenges for Obama — I

By General (R) Mirza Aslam Beg (chief of army staff from 1988-91 and is chairman of FRIENDS (Foundation for Research on International Environment National Development and Security)

In Third World countries like Pakistan, when leaders find the going tough on the domestic front, they turn towards foreign policy pursuits, ultimately losing at both ends. This is precisely the case with US President Barack Obama now. Domestic problems are multiplying. The government favours the elite and ignores the common folk. It has tried to stimulate the economy by buying treasury bonds through “quantitative easing”, which itself is a cause of a political backlash, and is following a risky monetary strategy which has in turn caused high rates of unemployment. Change in healthcare reforms are the only silver lining in the dark clouds surrounding America’s economy. Its foreign policy is drifting into error because of the failure to acknowledge the great setback suffered at the hands of the Afghans in the New Great Game in Eurasia.

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the US decided to extend its global primacy and pre-eminence into the Euro-Asian region under the mistaken belief that the 21st century belonged to it, as the dominant global power. The ‘New Great Game’ thus focused on containing and curbing forces considered a threat to its global ambitions. First, the Americans betrayed the Afghan Mujahideen — who had won the war for them against the Soviets — and induced a civil war because a radical Islamic government in Afghanistan was considered a threat to their interests. Hastily, they took on the Iraqis in 1991, who had emerged stronger after the Iran-Iraq war destroyed the bulk of their armed forces. They turned towards Somalia and encouraged their neighbours to invade the country and brought about a regime change. While the ‘New Great Game’ was being implemented, the 9/11 attack filled American hearts with a thirst for revenge. Afghanistan was invaded and occupied because it had committed the unforgivable sin of sheltering Osama, whom the Americans themselves had funded and supported against the Soviets.

After consolidating their hold over Afghanistan, Iraq was invaded on the pretext that Saddam had developed atomic weapons. As the consolidation process continued in Afghanistan and Iraq, the European Union extended its membership into Eastern Europe and jointly brought about pro-West revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrghyzstan. Thereafter, Afghanistan was unilaterally declared as part of South Asia and India was assigned a role under a strategic partnership with the US, with the objective of containing the rising threat of Islamic extremism in the region and the rising economic and military power of China. In the process of implementing this strategy, the Americans and their allies miserably failed because they could not estimate the power of the Islamic Resistance and suffered humiliating defeat at their hands. This happened because of the ‘war on terror strategy’, which became the catalyst for the spread of the Islamic Resistance from Afghanistan to Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, Kashmir and Palestine.

President Obama’s recent visit to India and America and India’s joint declaration shows disregard for the emerging ground realities. The Taliban have won the war and have proved true to their resolve, as conveyed to us in March 2002 by Mullah Omar. “We have resolved to fight and fight till we were free to take our decisions in a free environment. The Afghan nation will not follow the American agenda as it is not in harmony with our national ethos and traditions. We will fight till occupation forces vacate our land. We are a free people and know how to win our freedom.”

Mullah Omar stands firm on his commitment, as he pronounced recently that “the moment of defeat of the invaders has arrived due to the great sacrifices of the Mujahideen. We will continue with our strategy to engage the enemy in an exhausting war of attrition and wear them out like the former Soviet Union. The more the war prolongs, the greater will be the enemy’s suffering.” There is no denying the fact that Taliban have won against the combined forces of the US and their allies.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 27th, 2010
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Post Challenges for Obama — II

Challenges for Obama — II

By General (R) Mirza Aslam Beg

In an asymmetric war, there is no clear-cut line of victory and defeat. Yet the Soviets prudently accepted their defeat in 1989 and the Afghan Mujahideen, in good grace, allowed them to withdraw, unscathed. The Americans and their allies find it much too painful to admit defeat, so aptly described by Eric S Margolis: “Nato, the world’s most powerful military alliance, is losing the only war the 61-year-old pact ever fought…and is being beaten by the lightly-armed Afghan farmers and tribesmen.”

The recent Nato declaration at Lisbon betrays their wounded pride, shrouded in confusion: “We plan to end our combined role by 2014, or earlier, with ‘shallow’ troops withdrawal, starting next year.” In fact, the declaration aims at inducing a civil war in Afghanistan, by handing over power to the Northern Alliance, supported by a 150,000 strong Afghan Army and 100,000 members of the police force consisting mainly of Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Hazaras. Thus, Afghanistan will remain destabilised and accelerate the spread of Talibanisation in South Asia and beyond.

Despite such a short-sighted approach, there is still time to engage in ‘negative symmetry’, i.e. getting all regional forces, including India, to lay off Afghanistan, as the only chance for enduring peace. The problem gets even more complex when the occupation forces look east and see China as a rising power and a threat to their ambitions in the region. China’s rise is a patent reality. Unlike the former Soviet Union, China has no aggressive designs. In contrast, it has chosen to enter the global order, maintaining cooperative relations with all nations.” The purpose of the Indo-US partnership, therefore, is to create a Cold War style anti-Chinese military alliance, which will prove detrimental to peace in the region.

Obama’s foreign policy strategy is out of step with reality, as is his domestic policy. If he was seeking employment and jobs for the Americans, then his visit to Asia was not the correct choice, as Farid Zakria rightly pointed out: “He should have travelled to Canada and Mexico instead, which together buy twenty times as much American goods and services as does India and ten times as many as does South Korea.” Obama’s current approach is at a critical point. Sagacity demands a pragmatic strategy and a new vision to mark the start of a clear-eyed assessment, to steadily drawdown the forces from Afghanistan. This can be possible only after reaching a clear understanding with the Taliban, otherwise the exit will become horrendous. In 1989, Pakistan enjoyed a degree of clout with the Mujahideen to let the Soviets withdraw. Pakistan has lost that privilege now and the Taliban are the only arbiters. In this respect, US policymakers should listen to the logic of the task force of the US Senate headed by Richard Armitage, which recommends: “There is the need for a real national reconciliation process, for constitutional reforms and other political initiatives to end the conflict in Afghanistan.”

“The USA is a country in decline with a weakened political, economic and military system” and the challenge for Obama is to demonstrate the courage to switch course and relaunch himself in pursuit of what he told his supporters: “I spent my whole life chasing the American dream.” It is his job to find common ground with the Republicans, “to move the country forward, and get things done for the American people.” He has to make time for a clear, compassionate and consistent communication with the people at home and abroad, particularly those who have suffered as a result of the American pursuit of the elusive goal of global primacy and pre-eminence. The days of colonial imperialism have given way to a deeper human sensibility of shared values of the global community.

Obama must heed Horace who wrote: “Force, if unassisted by judgment, collapses through its own mass.”

Published in The Express Tribune, November 28th, 2010
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