WikiLeaks: Ch Nisar, Asfandyar open their hearts to Anne Patterson
 

ISLAMABAD: Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan is at heart a nationalist, but he does recognise the need to stay in the good graces of the United States, said a secret American Embassy Islamabad cable written by Ambassador Anne Patterson.
“Nisar appears to be positioning himself to be a candidate for prime minister if the Sharifs are disqualified in the upcoming battle with the PPP over control of the Punjab. . . As always, Nisar insisted that he and the PML-N were pro-American,” the cable covering a meeting of the ambassador with him on Sept 19, 2008 said.
On the same day, Patterson met Awami National Party (ANP) president Asfandyar Wali Khan and narrated its proceedings in the same cable. Both said they were encouraged by signs that some local tribes had decided to rise up and fight militants. The ANP chief said candidly that the Pashtuns accepted occasional air attacks, especially if they targeted foreigners, but daily air attacks or the presence of US ground troops were very unhelpful and undercut the Pakistan government’s efforts to encourage locals to combat militants.
Asfandyar praised the Bajaur operation as the only serious military action to date and asked General Kayani why the Pakistani security forces had made so little progress in Swat. He reported that he had given the army the location/coordinates of Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-e-Muhammmadi (TNSM) leader Maulana Fazlullah and urged them to strike the location or ask the Americans to strike, but nothing happened. He noted that because of historical discouragement, the Swatis have few weapons with which they had to fight back without support of the army.
“Nisar was cagier, noting that US attacks over the past few weeks hurt the hearts and minds campaign; he called for more transparency in the bilateral relationship and reserved the right to criticise US actions to remain politically credible,” the cable said.
It said Nisar shared Asfandyar’s view that relations between Zardari and the army were troubled. While noting Zardari’s thin majority in the parliament, Nisar pledged to be a responsible opposition leader but suggested that Zardari should consult the opposition if he wanted support on critical economic reforms.
Nisar told the ambassador that former President Musharraf had been tainted in Pakistani eyes because he was seen as too pro-US, so Musharraf’s campaign against the militants was also seen as a US war. To turn that around, Pakistanis must see the war as their fight against an insurgency.
“Nisar avoided saying that PML-N opposed either air attacks or US ground action. What he did say was that the PML-N would have to criticise the GOP (government of Pakistan) for allowing US action.
Otherwise, said Nisar, the party would have no credibility with the people. He called for more transparency about US policy and actions saying that confusion bred unhelpful conspiracy theories.”
According to the cable, Nisar also told the ambassador that he was optimistic about the “first stirrings” of a popular revolt against the Taliban. Asked about relations between the GOP and the military, however, Nisar responded that they were not good. The army, claimed Nisar, was exhausted and needed to be energised to fight militancy. Despite surface indications of goodwill, Nisar said there was deep distrust of Zardari among senior military leaders.
He noted the coincidence of Zardari filing his nomination papers to run for president on the same day that the Swiss announced they would return $60 million in frozen assets to Zardari. Zardari needed to take the first step of reaching out to the army, but there were few incentives on the part of the civilians or the military to resolve their differences.
Patterson met Nisar just after he had been voted as the new opposition leader in the National Assembly. PML-Q leader Pervaiz Elahi resigned from the position on September 14, in a move that many analysts saw as a precursor to a plan for the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party to oust Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N party from power in the Punjab. In a press conference on September 18, Nisar said he would work to convince President Zardari to repeal the 17th amendment, resign as co-chair of the PPP, and restore the deposed judges. Nisar was also appointed to become the chairman of the Public Accounts Committee that reviews spending of all the ministries.
Nisar said that after Musharraf’s resignation, there should have been more space for the US and Pakistan to work together under a civilian government. He was concerned that with the events of the past few weeks the two sides had lost an opportunity and urged that we find a way to better manage the relationship. As always, Nisar insisted that he and the PML-N were pro-American. (Saying that his wife and children in fact are American, Nisar did admit that he went to the US Embassy in London to renew his daughter’s passport because he wanted to avoid being seen at the US Embassy in Islamabad.)
He wanted to focus on young parliamentarians and was also reaching out to the UK to establish an exchange programme for them. He said that, after the Eid holidays, he would share some ideas for ways to diffuse anti-Americanism in Pakistan.
The US ambassador agreed to encourage ties between the US and Pakistani parliamentarians and organise some training programmes for the staff of the Public Accounts Committee. Nisar admitted that introducing transparency and accountability in the GOP would be a huge challenge.
Insisting several times that he will be a responsible opposition leader, Nisar claimed that the PML-N had learned the lessons of the past 8-10 years and would now ensure that democracy in Pakistan works at both the Centre and in the Punjab. He went on to note, however, that Zardari has only a six seat majority in the central government.
That means that Fazlur Rehman, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), or the Fata parliamentarians alone or acting in some combination can bring down the government. He pledged to help PM Gilani fight off blackmail from any of the groups but noted that the MQM was already making demands.
In Nisar’s view, the PPP has a blood feud with the PML-Q, which will find it very difficult to support Zardari, either in the Centre or in Punjab. He admitted there was a PPP sub-group trying to destabilise PML-N rule in the Punjab but hoped that Zardari would back off and not push Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif into a corner. This, said Nisar, would be unhelpful for everyone.
Ambassador Patterson asked if the PML-N would support the economic reforms and international financial institution (IFI) backing required to restore market and investor confidence. Nisar said the PML-N would strongly oppose an official International Monetary Fund (IMF) package but understood the need for some sort of IFI blessing to entice investors back. But he urged Zardari to take the opposition into confidence if he wants their support. Nisar noted that former PML-N Petroleum and Privatisation Minister Khwaja Asif agreed to see Zardari on September 19, possibly to discuss privatisation issues.
In closing, Nisar noted that this is potentially the most powerful Pakistani government that he has seen in 25 years — they control the presidency, the prime ministership, three provincial assemblies and four governorships; they have a friendly army chief and a compliant judiciary. Yet, they have not managed to get anything accomplished because they have been too closeted on political party lines.
The cable said that there is a growing convergence of views among Pakistani politicians that US attacks undermine nascent local efforts to rise up against the militants; we will continue to seek ways to help the GOP reward those efforts.
Asfandyar, who recently complained to Chief of Army Staff Kayani about the slow pace of military operations in Swat, praised Pakistani military action in Bajaur, which has been made more difficult by militant control of a network of tunnels. He hinted that the reason Baitullah Mahsud had not responded to US attacks on a Haqqani-controlled site was that the Pakistani army had made a secret deal with the Wazir tribe. He said candidly that the Pashtuns accepted occasional air attacks, especially if they targeted foreigners, but daily air attacks or the presence of US ground troops were very unhelpful. Noting that local tribesmen were just beginning to take up arms themselves against the militants, he said this was what had to happen to defeat the Taliban.
Asfandyar asked, “Where is Baitullah Mahsud? Siraj Haqqani is the big boss and Baitullah is his commander in chief. After you hit the Haqqani compound, why didn’t Mahsud react?” He went on to suggest that the US carefully examine the statement made by the 4,000-strong Waziri jirga that met earlier this week. According to press statements, the jirga said the tribe would ally with the Pakistani military to defend Pakistan against US attacks; it also said that if the attacks continue, the tribe’s ceasefire agreement with the military would be cancelled.
He said he had met this week with Kayani in one of their regular discussions about military operations in the NWFP (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and Fata.
Referring to two separate instances September 18 in Dir in which locals turned on militants, Asfandyar said he was increasingly encouraged by signs that tribes were fed up with the Taliban. He related two stories where information from local tribesmen resulted in the police seizing rocket launchers and heavy weapons from militants hiding within the community.
He said he urged the locals near Bajaur to revolt against the militants; in response one town leader said they would like to rise up but, in a community of 500 people, they had two AK-47s and only a handful of ammunition.
The ambassador noted that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mullen had discussed September 17 with Kayani the need to help the GOP reward tribes that were taking anti-militant action; the US was helping civilians who had fled the fighting in Bajaur and would explore ways to help these tribes as well.
In Bajaur, Asfandyar confirmed what we have heard from army and Interior Ministry sources. The militants are using an elaborate system of tunnels, most likely created in the 1980’s Mujahideen days, to evade capture. This has made the army’s task of clearing the area much more difficult. Local tribes are raising lashkars (armed tribal posses) to assist the security forces, said Asfandyar. But he worried about what will happen when the army has to move to Mohmand Agency; according to Asfandyar, after the Waziristans, Mohmand has the largest concentration of Mujahideen-era inter-marriages between foreign militants and local tribes. Asfandyar said that Pakistan faced difficult times ahead — “this is going to be bloodier than Afghanistan, and we have to be prepared for it.”
“We have offered Asfandyar and his Foreign Affairs Committee a briefing on US development assistance and military/intelligence operations; he also plans to be in New York around October 10. We also understand that former Interior Minister Sherpao will soon be in New York for a Council on Foreign Relations event.”



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