As Pakistan prepares itself for the upcoming 2012/2013 elections, Imran’s firm stand against graft, criticism of US intervention and strong promise of social redemption has found new resonance with a population disillusioned and frustrated by a moribund political system. Imran’s popularity no doubt heralds the mounting sentiment among voters for political change; however, whether it promises electoral success for Imran Khan and the PTI is, in effect, doubtful.

Undeniably, the scale of the Minar-e-Pakistan rally was significant in terms of Imran’s move into the main political arena. However, a single remarkable show of crowd mobilisation does not promise success at the polls for the charismatic cricketer. Pakistan’s voting body suffers from high levels of illiteracy, particularly political illiteracy, in discerning and exercising its “adult franchise”; if support at public addresses and political rallies was demonstrative of electoral success, the Jamiat-e-Islami would have enjoyed a major foothold in our parliament, in all the elections held thus far. The turnout at the PTI’s rally is primarily reflective of one fact – the Pakistani masses’ dissatisfaction with the establishment and the fractious politics. The common Pakistani is demanding a change in the way the country is administered; he is insisting on a new leadership, a new establishment which is clean, pure, and aboveboard.

Imran’s public address saw a subtle variation from his conventional delivery of speeches; he neither admonished nor berated the US as per his practice on streets and studios. His criticism of the US this time was much softer, a veiled assurance of being cooperative not only to local political parties but also to the US; he stated “I want to be a friend of the Americans, not their lackey.” The glory of Imran’s cricketing days and his anti-war message have enabled him to develop some following among the urban middle class in the political powerhouse of Punjab and the north-western tribal areas. In the run-up to the election, Imran will not only have to retain the interest of his followers, but also expand the ambit of his political support to ensure victory at the polls. In my view, Imran should have anticipated the spectacular turnout and delivered a speech, a directive, more effective and distinct – the address on the eve of Oct 30 fell short of expectations in many ways.

One of the key orders missing in Imran’s address was a layout of immediate foreign policy initiatives that the party would adopt upon coming into power. While he explained his position on the US, Afghanistan and a peace settlement, Imran remained vague about his plans on Pakistan’s international engagements and involvement, as well as the development of alliances with states that Pakistan has enjoyed favourable bilateral relations with.

Imran’s standing on the economic and social reform front also remains unclear. Imran did not spell out an economic agenda that would assist the party in releasing the country from its current economic morass. Pakistan’s long-standing macroeconomic issues are the direct result of inconsistent economic reform and poor economic planning. The rally, with an audience of thousands, was a key opportunity for the celebrated cricketer to present an economic action plan that would rescue Pakistan from the current economic quagmire. At this point, one also notices Imran’s unpreparedness in presenting a social reform agenda his party would introduce in the country. His rhetoric is one we have heard and tested several times in the past, and our expectations from a new, emerging leader lie much higher – a coherent, transparent and trenchant scheme that will revive the rusty mechanism of our country and set it on the right path.

Despite being a player in Pakistan’s political scenario for a decade and a half, Imran has been unable to garner the support of people renowned for their expertise in the area of politics and economy. His party remains sapped and contradictory as far as building necessary alliances within Pakistan’s political system are concerned; despite the practical experience and shrewdness many established politicians offer, Imran has spurned their participation in the PTI. Dismissal of this involvement has caused a lack of availability of sound counsel and advice, which is a critical factor for any party or leader to succeed in the art of politics. Imran Khan’s party still remains weak, with few candidates and fresh voters. While Imran’s rhetoric has been impactful in mobilising the population, the PTI does not appear to have a dynamic policy instrument that comprises experienced professionals and policy-makers. Ideally, Imran should focus on distinctly highlighting the PTI’s policy directive and bring forth a shadow cabinet so his supporters and the general electorate are able to correlate with the objectives and manifesto of his ideology, plan, and reform agenda.

The youth of Pakistan yearn for clean, focused and effective leadership. Imran may have rekindled hope in that area, but mere honesty and charisma do not guarantee a successful government. Knowledge of statecraft and diplomacy is essential to the framing and implementation of progressive economic and social policy. At the crux of any initiative or policy directive rests the element of inherent capability and concerted effort. Every leader needs an efficient team to bring a reform, an idea, a dream, to fruition and actualisation. The need of the hour is not only to be able to evolve policies and objectives that will take the country forward, but also deliver the fruit of that effort to the doorstep of an average Pakistani.

Imran should realise that single-handedly he cannot form a government at the federal level; he will need to form alliances with other political players (unless he decides to catapult into power through backdoor conniving!). It may be pleasing to turn the audience into an anti-US frenzy, but pragmatism demands of him to realise and accept that US role in our politics, is a stark reality – how he can manage to play along and tone down the influence will remain a major test of his political acumen, in the run-up to elections.

And his flirtatious attitude towards the religious parties convinces me that deep inside he is averse to their brand of interpretation of religion and politics – sounds almost like a “reluctant fundamentalist.” In the Islamic Republic, with 96 percent Muslims, and mostly good Muslims, we do not need a preacher in the form of Imran Khan! It is best he sticks to core politics.

The political wisdom and sagacity of a leader is known by his ability to foresee, before others, the emerging realities of both politics and economy on the anvil and follow through with active anticipation and solid resolve through astute planning and policy. The charismatic captain is in his late 50s, with age slowly withdrawing its support. If Imran does not manage to create an alliance without compromising on fundamental principles of integrity and honesty, chances of securing a sizeable number of seats in the National Assembly by the next elections seem dim.

If Imran is unable to translate his popularity into electoral seats in the assembly by this election, the leader will be in his 60s by the next general elections in 2017/2018. One wishes that Imran maintains his sporty spirit, keeps fit, and stays healthy, but the tests of time and age have strained even the most “tenacious commandoes.” Until Imran is able to discipline and clearly distinguish his reform agenda, he remains a good cricketer and great captain of 10 members on the cricket field; to lead a divergent and volatile population of 180 million requires a more clear-eyed, assured leadership. Imran, if you have it, prove it!



The writer is a senior banker.