After making rapid increase in its conventional weapon capability, Pakistan has become the 5th nuclear power of the world. There is also no gainsaying the fact that Pakistan is a strong country in respect of defense. To increase capacity of conventional weapon is also prerequisite for us. Because Pakistan is fully aware of the fact that there exists a country in its neighborhood with whom it had fought three wars in the past.

Had Pakistan not taken steps to strengthen its defense capability, the Jewish lobbies would have overpower it long before. Today we are the 5th nuclear power of the world which is of course a matter of pride for us. We have abundance of all kinds of resources. But still we have to confront a worst economic and political debacle in all the times. The country where a labor or a pit man go to bed with empty stomach cannot make progress and development as compared to the other developed and progressive states of the world. It is due to this reason that today the future and existence of Pakistan has become a question mark in the eyes of all of us. Almighty Allah has bestowed all his blessings upon Pakistan. But in spite of all these blessings and gifts we are living in a state of slavery and servitude. Therefore we are unable to view and judge the beauty, charm, the mantle and spiritual capability expanding in our surrounding. Pakistan is the fifth biggest nuclear state of the world fully equipped with the mettle of scientists and engineers. But in spite of all such blessing my countrymen are passing through a state of darkness and ignorance .

Similarly as mentioned earlier, we have become the 5th nuclear state of the world. But people have no access to the basic amenities of life. Not only is this but we have also become the 6th biggest military power of the world. Due to our exceptional technical capability we have become a cause of fear for the rest of the countries of the world. There exist enough capability and cavalry in our youth to face all sorts of challenges of the world. But sorry to say that we are at war with our own people on our own land. Again Pakistan is an agricultural country we can yield and produce enough quantum of wheat and maize to export to other countries of the world. But very sadly to say we have to confront an acute food shortage in all the times. Besides our gas reservoirs stands 6th in Asia. We are enriched with gas reservoirs but still the excessive load shedding continue unabated for the domestic and CNG consumers. So we are compelled to export gas from Iran on exorbitant rate so to fulfill our needs and demands.

Moreover there also found vast reservoirs of gold and copper at Ricodac in Baluchistan. Its value has been estimated in billions. But ironically we are running our domestic affairs by taking huge tranche of debt from IMF and World Bank. The gold mine in Baluchistan is stated to be 5th in the world.

But still the gold prices have jumped up with alarming proportion of 65000 per Tula. There also exist vast reservoirs of oil and gas in Pakistan. According to available estimate the reservoirs of oil are billion barrels while that of gas is trillion cube/feet. But in spite of all these the petroleum prices have touched the highest point. Then the canal system of Pakistan is also considered to be the best in the world. It is the largest in the world. territory wise Pakistan is 1/3 of Russia but its canal system is 1/3 bigger than Russian one. Every year million cusec of our water get wasted by falling down in Arabian sea.

We have no water for our irrigation but India is hell bent to withhold Pakistan share of water thus causing water crises for Pakistan. Tourism can prove to be the major source of our income generation. There exist ample opportunities of tourism. We have even beautiful and scenic spots and resorts of tourism than Switzerland. But in spite of all, the influx of tourist is less than other countries of south Asia. Now the question arises that why did it not make any progress and headway in its economic spheres despite enriched with huge natural resources. The per capita income is less than 2 dollar despite having immense potentiality and capabilities of resources and manpower generation. Excessive power outage has become a routine matter. People are compelled to commit suicide due to extreme poverty and starvation. Pakistan is no longer a poor country.

Plunderers and looters are busy day in, day out to plunder its wealth with both hands but still the country survives and alive in the comity of the nations. The people of this land are also hardworking. They work up to 12 hours a day. But in spite of all we have remained far behind in the race of progress and development as compared to other countries of the world. it is also echoed and feared that sooner or later Pakistan will go toward disintegration due to its worst economic and political instability. If we can become nuclear power, than we have also the potential to acquire economic strength and stability and come at par with the other economic tigers of Asia. Obviously Pakistan economy is at the brink of total collapse. But we see Pakistan future as bright and secure only on one condition.

That is to show and exhibit unity and solidarity among our ranks and files. Now the time has come to get rid of all those elements that are bent upon to loot and plunder its wealth by both hands. In order to achieve this particular objective we all have to exercise of our right to vote in a right direction. Let us pledge to purge this pure land of Muslim brethrens from the clutches of voderaism, feudalism and capitalism only through vote in the election to come. It is the only available outlet which can steer our people from this quagmire once and for all.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/

Pakistan is passing these days through worse socio–economic and law and order situation because of the ruler’s inefficiencies, ineffectiveness, wrong policies and corrupt activities. The country in fact is run either by their foreign master’s directly or through their consultants having dual nationalities.
The consultants deputed are truly following the directives of their masters for implementing their agenda’s at the cost of our country’s risk, stability and solidarity. Perhaps this is the reason that the positions of Chief Economist and such five others very important positions in the Planning Commission are lying vacant since last Five years and the appointments of the honest, experienced and qualified Pakistani’s are not taking place. Appointments of honest, devoted, talented and highly qualified Pakistanis on such key positions could streamline the derailed economic situation of the country, but the rulers are not interested to disobey their master by doing so.

The open corruption, disinvestment, energy crisis, wrong monetary, fiscal, investment and trade policies and recruitment of the less qualified, dishonest and inexperienced people on key positions could be judged from the decision and policies they are formulating for the country’s socio –economic development, trade, monetary and fiscal stability.

The growing inflationary spiral and unfavorable balance of payments are the outcomes of our weak and unstable trade, investment, monetary, fiscal and industrial policies, which has almost collapsed the socio economic situation of the country. The prices of almost all the daily use house hold items have been increased ten times, while the per capita income of the household has been declined five folds. Increasing Unemployment and open violation of merit in recruitments has pushed the young generation to commit suicides and also to get involved in the terrorist and subversive activities against their own people.

The reason is that today, more than 60% of our young graduates are wandering in streets in search of jobs and are knocking at the doors of the corrupt politicians to buy jobs for their livelihoods and hardly 10% succeed in getting jobs either on payment to the corrupt politicians or on the basis of their approaches, political affiliations and nepotism.

Thousand such examples can be quoted, where low merit and less qualified people have been directly appointed but meritorious and hard workers, honest candidates have been deprived from their due appointment rights. It is not only the issue of unemployment, low income but numerous other issues have further pushed the country at the verge of collapse.

The growing load shedding is another alarming issue which has further not only made the life of the people at risk but also industrial and agriculture sectors are badly suffering and many industries have been closed on account of energy shortages, being known that today energy is the fifth very important factor of production.

The collapse of the industrial sector has not only increased the bills of our import expenditures but also has badly suffered our export sector as well. The every day increase in our import bills and decline in the export have raised expenditures many folds and has overburdened the country’s exchequer due to unfavorable balance of trade and payments. The industrial decline has further raised unemployment which consequently adversely affected the per capita income of the country and export of the manufactured goods. Non availability of the energy and its growing cost for the industry, transport and tube wells installed for the irrigation purposes has further pushed the country in to the worse economic stagnation and inflationary spiral.

The growing gas load shedding and increasing per unit cost is another setback for the economy of the country and is also not only increasing the miseries of the poor households and industrial sector but the transport sector is also suffering adversely. It is certainly quite apparent that in a country where neither energy is available nor cheap and frequent transportation facility exist for the speedy supply of the labour force and raw materials to the industries nor their limited finished goods can avail the facilitation of the cheap access to the consumer market, how industry and agriculture will prosper and flourish. It is indeed beyond the understanding of the poor people of Pakistan that in spite of the fact that production of the gas has been increased many folds on account of the exploration of the oil and gas fields and it is indicated from the revenue the government is collecting from this sector.

The government collected revenue of over Rs.138 billion from six different heads of oil and gas in the first six months of this fiscal year, up by over 106 per cent when compared with Rs. 67bn collected in the period last year. This was in addition to about Rs. 220bn as general sales tax on oil and gas collected in first six months, putting the total revenue receipts from oil and gas at about Rs. 358bn. As a result, the petroleum sector has emerged as the top revenue yielding sector for the government. According to official figures of the ministry of finance, the government collected Rs. 57.6bn as petroleum levy on oil products in July-December 2012-13 against Rs. 20.3bn collected during the same period last year, showing an increase of a whopping 184pc. Royalty on oil and gas stood at Rs. 29.8bn compared to Rs. 26.4bn in the first half of last fiscal year, an increase of about 13pc. On top of that, the government earned a windfall levy of Rs. 11.4bn during first six months of this fiscal year against zero collection under this head last year. Likewise, the government also collected Rs. 25bn as Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC) against no collection last year because the GIDC was introduced with effect from July 1, 2012. As a result, the petroleum sector has emerged as the top revenue yielding sector for the government and also for its investors, but unfortunately, these huge earnings are not appropriately utilized for the welfare of the general masses and all such resource generating institutions like PIA, Pakistan Steel mill, WAPDA, Railways, and such other departments are at the verge of collapse due to the incompetency and inefficiency of the present Government.

The increasing external and internal debts burden in the history of Pakistan is another complex issue which very rightly depicts the inefficiency of the present rulers and failure of their monetary and fiscal policy makers. The every day devaluation of the Pakistani currency and increasing dollar exchange rate is another conspiracy against this country, which is intentionally committed just to please their master’s and to give stability to their currencies and economy. The growing debt services burden is the outcome of our ill policies. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell $154 million to $13.395 billion in the week ending Feb 8, from $13.549bn in the previous week. The payment of $146 million made to the International Monetary Fund in this month is not included in this data. The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank slipped to $8.458bn from $8.586bn but that of commercial banks rose to $4.937bn from $4.888bn during the week.

The loyalty of the Governor State Bank having dual nationality could be judged from the policies he is introducing and the currency notes he is issuing on daily basis and from the outcome of the policies he is implementing in this country. The invisible outflow of the foreign currencies worth one billion dollars per day is another incompetency of the present policy makers.
Analyzing the previous five years foreign currencies exchange rates, it is worth mentioning that Pakistani Rupee is the most unstable and more devalued currency in the world currency market. Today the war affected Afghanistan’s currency is more stable than ours. Stable currency is considered a sign of stable economy.

The present coalition government has not only destabilized the economy of the country on account of their inefficiencies, corrupt policies and mala fide intentions but have made the country at the verge of complete failure due to the prevailing insecurity and deteriorating law and order situation in the provinces as well as at the country level in all respect. Dozens of people are dying every day either because of target killings or because of suicide attacks and state terrorism. The security agencies have totally been failed in bringing peace and security to the foreign investors, general masses of the country due to the reasons unknown to the general masses. The deteriorating law and order situation in the country and the government's inability to provide security to foreign investors remains a major factor in the decline in foreign direct investment (FDI). "Poor security arrangements by security agencies to local and foreign investors have discouraged investment in the country. Incidents of terrorism and a surge in targeted killings and kidnappings for ransom, extortion and bank robberies is affecting the entire country, especially Karachi, Quetta and Peshawar , but law-enforcement agencies have so far failed to devise a comprehensive plan to ensure security to foreign and local investors.

According to State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) annual report, FDI, which supported the external sector over the past few years, fell below $1 billion, touching 0.35 percent of GDP. The Board of Investment's (BOI), investment policy 2013 gives importance to security issues of prospective foreign investors. It promises to provide "airport-to-airport" security to foreign investors in co-ordination with provincial investment promotion agencies (IPAs). But no such progress so far have been observed.

In such circumstances of insecurity, how foreign investors will come to invest in this country and will contribute in the economic stability and development of the country. Not only investment has been stopped but a mass brain drain of the honest and highly qualified and technical people is also at its peak. The poor state of the economy has failed to attract foreign investors for the last five years and is more visible through the data provided by the State Bank about foreign direct investment during the first seven months of the current fiscal year. While the country is in dire need of foreign exchange, the foreign investors are leaving this country. The State Bank reported that the foreign direct investment during the first seven months could hardly cross the figure of half a billion dollars. For many analysts situation is pathetic for the country since the inflows sharply declined during the five years. They said this is unbelievable that a country which received $5.5 billion in FY-2008 finds it hard to receive even one billion dollar today. Pakistan has been struggling to protect its falling foreign exchange reserves which have badly damaged the exchange rate. The State Bank said during July-January, the country received $525 million, less than $595 million received the same period in the last year.
Even many local investors have shifted their businesses and capital to other countries including Canada, UAE, UK, India, Australia and USA. Poor policies hinder foreign investment as indicated clearly by this one example that at a time when multinational pharmaceutical companies are shifting their businesses from Pakistan, global drug manufacturers are increasing their stakes in India due to favourable policies. As reported, pharmaceuticals group GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has recently invested over half a billion pounds in its Indian unit, increasing its stake in the healthcare of one of the most important emerging markets of the world. The Indian government had been planning this scenario since 1995 when they awarded the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan and ensured that the same does not benefit Pakistan by erecting non tariff barriers. Similarly, their focus remained on attracting foreign investment and their dream has come true as multinational companies are attracted more towards India, Multinational pharmaceutical companies shy away from investing in Pakistan due to unfavourable drug pricing. “The cost of production is increasing day by day in Pakistan due to inflation and rupee devaluation and Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) issue,”.

Unfortunately there is neither any proper and transparent accountability system in this country nor we have any fair justice and punishment system in our country. Even it is a matter of great concern that today it has been a general concept in this country that powerful and ruling class is above the law. Pakistan being an Islamic country, the leaders and rulers of the country consider themselves even above the Islamic regulations. Though such self given exemption for their immoral activities provided to the rulers of this country is not only un-Islamic and immoral but is certainly quite damaging. Any such amenities/ exemption granted on account of their corruption and immoralities to the rulers of this country are neither justified nor according to the Islamic norms. They are enjoying undue protection for all their unfair means and irregularities and illegalities. In this country such gross violations of the rules and regulations, mass corruption and illegalities of the powerful rulers, politicians, generals, judges, bureaucrats is some times protected through NRO’s or some times in the name of amenities and exemption provided through their own man made legislations.

Therefore, for the elimination of corruption, irregularities and illegalities, the Islamic laws needs to be introduced and the regulations of NRO be immediately abrogated and such laws needs to be brought in accordance with the Islamic norms and no such exemption be given to any one and every one must be accessible for fair accountability and trial in the free and fair courts of law for their ill doings including the President and Prime Minister of Pakistan and Governors and Chief Ministers of the Provinces. Courts be directed to speed up justice for the general masses as well. All socio –economic, educational Institutions, banking system, judiciary, and establishment sections be made free from the undue interference of the politicians. Today our MNA’s, MPA’s, Senators instead of contributing in the socio –economic development, they have snatched the powers of recruitment, allocation of funds, transfers, postings of the employees from the establishment sections, and are competing in the race of just looting and accumulating wealth. In such circumstances how the country will fairly and transparently run and how the objective of security, economic stability and socio –economic prosperity will be achieved. Let the role of the politicians be confined only to legislation, guidance and not to implementation. If we could do this, we will be successful in achieving the desired goals, otherwise socio -economic failure and destitute is our destiny.

The Author Prof. Dr. Asmatullah Khan, is a renowned Economist and a Retired Vice Chancellor of a University

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/

We are accustomed to hearing the cliché, “Pakistan is passing through the most critical phase of its existence”, ever-since it came in to being. But the current discourse is initiated by an article of a former American ambassador to Pakistan, expressing apprehensions of Pakistan ending up as a failed state. The topic has also been commented upon by Michael Krepon of Stimson Centre, though with emphasis on Pakistan being a nuclear state, with an economy lacking the capacity to sustain it for a long time.

Now both the views have travelled from other side of the globe. Analyzing viability or otherwise of a dynamic country like Pakistan from that far a distance is rather an uncalled for intellectual luxury. The dynamism and built in sustainability of Pakistan merits visiting these concepts in a greater detail.
Pakistan possesses a unique agrarian economy, complimented by an industry with adequate indigenous raw materials, free from the usual anxiety of drying away of raw material resources, due to changing international business values or the fast developing technologies rendering the existing machinery and tools obsolescent. The biggest calamity brought about by the global economic downturn, usually, is unemployment. The economy of Pakistan remains immune to that phenomenon, because of an adequately large agrarian sector, that generates employment activity during the two main harvesting seasons, absorbing the entire labour force available. The labor during these phases generally falls so short that even the blue and white collar classes, per necessity, also have to come forward and fill the gaps. One would never find bands of unemployed youth in Pakistan, which is usually a menacing phenomenon in the industrialized countries of the world.

To top it all we have an elegant banking and finance system in place in Pakistan. Though conservative in nature, the system obviates the likelihood of entrepreneurial bankruptcy. Unlike banking in the developed world, it strictly works on collateral guarantees and thrift. Remittances by the overseas Pakistanis provide an additional safety valve for country’s financial upkeep.
Apart from foreign currency remittances it goes a long way in providing employment abroad to the youth of the country. During international economic downturn we have observed that the Pakistani economy, by and large, remains immune to the devastations caused elsewhere by the credit crunch.

Dynamic and abundant natural resources and economical human resources that Pakistan has been blessed with, act as successive protective shields against any economic collapse. We have water to irrigate our agricultural land and to generate cheap electricity through hydro electric systems. Our canal irrigation system is known as the most elaborate canal based irrigation system in the world. We have abundant natural gas reserves which is a many times cheaper resource than petroleum. Of late Pakistan was gripped by overall power shortage. True to the dictates of the saying, “necessity is the mother of invention”, a flurry of exploratory exercises was conducted by the responsible quarters for further gas exploration.

As a consequence many more potential gas fields have been discovered for future exploitation. This is in addition to the Thar coal deposits, which when fully exploited, will make the country self-sufficient in power sector for generations.

There is one long term and one short term threats to the security of the country. The long term threat is the unchecked population growth. The implications of overpopulation are varied and many and are commonly realized by all. But the most significant implication is proliferation of illiteracy. We all realize that the root cause of all ills of the society emanate from ignorance. And no amount of resources can keep pace with the literacy requirements of the country, with the population growth rate of the magnitude that we presently have in Pakistan. The unfortunate dimension of this tangle is that the entire political leadership, inclusive of the parties with leftist pretensions, stand hostage to the religious right of the country. In private all the political leaders believe that a better future of the race lies in arresting the unchecked population growth. But all that is reserved for drawing room gossip only. An erroneous concept has been imprinted in the minds of our political leadership that skies will fall if some stringent measures are adopted in the realm of population planning in the country. Reason is raised out of fear of the mullah no one ever tries to bell the cat.

The short term threat to the national security is posed by militancy and religious extremism. It is a passing phase and is lingering on because of the ambivalence of the political leadership for the same reasons discussed regarding population planning above. Only the political leadership is not to blame. The eyes and ears of the nation, that is, media, too must share the blame. The opportunistic considerations of the political leadership are palpable to some extent but the brazen apathy of the media in exposing the nefarious designs of the terrorists and religious extremism is simply criminal and gruesome. It is mind boggling to find the media, all the time, looking the other way, while the country is being bled white by the enemies of humanity. After all what is at stake from the media side--nothing except dreaming to make fortunes by not calling a spade a spade.

The loud thinking of the top brass of the army keeps trickling down that betrays the fact that the defense establishment is very much in favor of carrying out a countrywide cleanup operation to root out terrorism and religious extremism. But no one asks them to do the job. But there is no cause for despondency. Sooner than later the menace will be dealt with appropriately. I believe the next government which is returned by the upcoming general elections, will have to tackle this menace in the most desired manner, being the necessity of the most urgent nature..

Finally, over a period of time, our armed forces have got adequately developed institutions and are always in combat readiness. They are quite capable of meeting the internal as well as external threats. Our nuclear weapons are also in safe hands. The American diplomats and think tanks must refrain from lecturing us as to how to run a country and how to manage our nuclear assets. We will never be found with our pants down like Adolf Hitler found some of the European nations and overran them with a lightning speed.
Nor any one should expect us to be routed like the Americans in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

All nations pass through difficult and critical phases. Pakistan being no exception is also having its share of adversity. The way the nation is so orderly bracing for the upcoming general elections must serve as an eye opener to the prophets of doom. “If winter comes can spring be far behind”.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/

While the country is caught up in election fervor and fever, the Peshawar High Court (PHC) has revived a very important case of the continued stay of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and issued notices to the concerned officials to explain to the court the reasons for allowing an extension in the stay of refugees, despite a written agreement between Islamabad and Kabul regarding the end date for the refugees' stay in Pakistan.

The officials who have been served notices by the PHC include the Ministry of States & Frontier Regions (SAFRON), Secretaries of Interior and Foreign Affairs apart from the Chief Commissioner, Afghan Refugees. The government of Pakistan had earlier in consultation with the Afghan government and authorities of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) declared that Afghan refugees, mainly housed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, would be repatriated by December 31, 2012. In this connection, the PHC bench comprising the Chief Justice Dost Muhammad Khan and Justice Irshad Qaiser, which is hearing the suo moto case, expressed its serious concern that despite restraining the government from granting further extension, the same was given.

The court has asked the officials to explain why the government had defied the court orders and violated its own agreement regarding the cut-off date for repatriation of the Afghan refugees. The court observed that despite its earlier order, Former Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf extended the stay of Afghan refugees by six months only days before the expiry of the cut-off date. This was the umpteenth extension to the Afghans to stay in Pakistan.

The PHC bench observed, on the basis of the reports it received from the security agencies, and the Home and Tribal Affairs Department of KP, that Afghan refugees were a potential threat to the law and order in the province and the writ of the government. The observation of the PHC is, indeed, apt as there is irrefutable evidence that in most of the law and order related crimes, terrorism and challenging the authority of the state and its writ, Afghan refugees have been involved. In fact, there is solid evidence that the anti-Pakistan lobbies in the Afghan government have been using Afghan refugees in Pakistan to stoke unrest in the country, specifically in KP, FATA and Karachi.

It is important to note that before the end date of December 31, 2012, the federal and KP governments had reiterated that the refugees would not be allowed to stay beyond the date.

Although former premier Raja Pervez Ashraf only extended the stay of the Afghans by six months, some informed circles told Cutting Edge that the government of Pakistan may extend the stay of the refugees by three years. If the government ultimately so decides, this would be disastrous for the country, primarily its security. The extension of even six months is an irrational one and completely against the national interest of Pakistan as already the government has given several extensions to the Afghan refugees to continue staying in Pakistan on the request of Afghan government, international organizations and the refugee leaders. While the government had extended the stay and may be pondering to grant further extension to the Afghans to live in Pakistan, the suo moto case of the PHC bench directing the federal and provincial authorities to explain why the government granted six months extension to the refugees is the only glimmer of hope, which could compel the government to prevent it from further extending the refugees' stay. The six months extension is going to expire on June 30, this year of which four months have already passed. However, the government could only be made to desist from giving further extension if the court insists upon getting the fullest explanation from the concerned authorities why the extension of six months was granted in the first instance.

During the course of the suo moto case the PHC learned justices had, very rightly, conveyed to the government that when 84 per cent of Afghans had been living in their own country with safety, why could not the 1.7 million registered Afghan refugees presently living in Pakistan be repatriated. Therefore, there is no substance in the argument of the Afghan refugees that they could not return as the law and order conditions are not satisfactory in their country. The justices also very logically observed, that the continued presence of these refugees has put unbearable burden on the economy and security apparatus of Pakistan, particularly KP, and as there is a severe energy, water and food crisis besides a volatile law and order situation in Pakistan. Therefore, the government cannot give any further extension to Afghan refugees to stay in Pakistan.

After the remarks and observation of the PHC regarding the issue, there should be no doubt left in anybody's mind regarding the repercussions of millions of Afghan refugees and illegal Afghans staying in Pakistan. It has been for more than three decades that Afghans have lived in Pakistan and their stay seems to have become interminable. It may be mentioned that such a large number of Afghan refugees in Pakistan has been the largest internationally displaced community living anywhere in the world in recent history. The fact of the matter is that a large number of Afghans have no intention of going back and want to be naturalized as Pakistani citizens. International law, particularly the 1951 Convention on Refugees, in no way, puts any legal onus on the host country of the refugees to naturalize the latter. This needs to be conveyed in unequivocal terms to the Afghan refugees and their leadership.

The country since long has suffered in every conceivable way due to the unending stay of millions of Afghan refugees. On the one hand, the refugees have given rise to large-scale lawlessness and criminal activities across Pakistan, whereas on the other hand, have destroyed the economies of KP, Balochistan, FATA and to a certain extent, of Karachi. The negative socio-cultural implications are apart from that.

The key reason that a large number Afghan refugees have been able to live in Pakistan for such a long period of time has been Pakistan's policy of accommodation regarding the Afghans. However, this accommodation has cost Islamabad extremely dearly as it could not win over the hearts and minds of the Afghans. The problem has not been with Pakistan but with Afghans as they have always been thankless and have a propensity for forgetting their benefactors.

The fears regarding the possible three-year extension in stay to Afghan refugees by Islamabad have their roots in the demand by the Afghan government that Pakistan should extend the stay of Afghans on its soil for another three years and Islamabad's policy of accommodation and appeasement towards the Afghans. The Afghan government plea is politically motivated rather than having any humanitarian or security-related grounds. The fact of the matter is that Afghan President Hamid Karzai owed his narrow win in the last presidential elections to Afghans living in Pakistan. As these Pakistan-based Afghans are mostly Pashtoons, they were motivated by Karzai's associates and, above all, the host country's authorities to vote in favour of Karzai when there was a neck-and-neck electoral contest with his Tajik rival, Abdullah Abdullah. Therefore, the Karzai camp hopes that in the next year's Afghan elections, its nominee would also fall back upon the Afghans living in Pakistan to win elections.

However, whatever the motives and intention of the Afghans government and leadership may be, Pakistan has to look after its own interest and this could best be secured by repatriating the Afghan refugees without any further delay. Otherwise, violence and terrorism would continue to escalate in Pakistan as our society has contracted the ills from Afghan society and members of both the societies' large-scale interaction and contact due to presence of millions of Afghans on Pakistan's soil for more than 30 years.

http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/

Irrespective of what the most gullible might say about earthquakes being the result of our bad deeds, one should be a little wary of the scale this natural disaster can cause. As it is almost impossible to pinpoint where it might strike next, unlike storms and rains that are fairly predictable, it could cause a huge loss to life and property. The recent weeks have seen more than one jolting experience and that should raise some alarm bells, as Pakistan has many cities, some major ones, right in the seismic zone.

With our general lack of responsibility, even a quake in the vicinity of 4-plus on the Richter scale can cause huge damage. Take for example the city of Karachi, where millions of people live in shanty houses, slums, housing projects unworthy even for animals, one such incident could cause a multitude of casualties. Moreover, what’s really troubling is the fact that nothing substantial has been done to avoid such a situation, not even after the earthquake of 2005 ruined major part of the country up north and left more than 70,000 dead. Building laws in Karachi and other urban areas are ignored to save a few bucks. No fire safety equipment is installed at high-rise buildings, offices, and housing projects as it would “hurt their visual appeal” while also increasing the cost of such projects.

Pakistan was lucky that it didn’t have to face much destruction in the recent earthquakes that hit the country, along with Iran and India, in the past few days. An earthquake of 7.8 in magnitude is often more lethal but Pakistan was lucky that its damage was not widespread as it happened in an area that wasn’t densely populated and that the epicentre of the quake wasn’t too deep. However, it appears the lesson hasn’t been learnt yet. No strict building laws are applied, nor are buildings checked for earthquakes, fire and other natural hazards. Bangladesh is still trying to dig out all the bodies from underneath a building that collapsed a few days ago. Karachi and Lahore have many such buildings that are a clear threat to the safety of their occupants but their owners appear to be paying no heed to what should be done at once. It was the same dilly-dallying and an effort to work around building laws that caused the fire and enormous loss of life in factories in Karachi and Lahore.

Providing safe environment for the workers and tenants of a building is the duty of those who own them, but making sure that they follow the laws is the duty of the government. Though by extension, the workers and tenants are also responsible for it. If one of them is casual in performing its duty, the consequences can be really disastrous.

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....tCcYa1Fv.dpuf

We are living in a deeply wounded society - a society which has been numbed and shaken to its core by a swirling miasma of violence, bloodshed and brutality that never seem to end. Target killers, suicide bombers, sectarian monsters, ethnic blood hounds, special death squads and an assortment of criminal mafias stalk the land phantom without any check or hindrance. Lately, the lengthening shadow of election violence has further darkened the national horizon.

While over 5,000 people have fallen victim to target killing in Karachi, more than 49,000 Pakistanis have lost their lives in the ongoing war on terror.
Random shootings and kidnapping for ransom are almost a daily occurrence in Balochistan. KP is at the mercy of TTP militants who strike wherever and whenever they want. Since the announcement of elections, 76 people have lost their lives in a spate of terrorist attacks by Taliban all over Pakistan. No wonder, the entire population feels terrorized and is fearful about the future.

Three gory incidents last Friday exemplified the agony the country is passing through. In three separate hits, murderers on the loose struck simultaneously in Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore. In the port city, terrorists gunned down ANP candidate for NA-254 Sadiq Zaman Khattak along with his son. They were coming back from Juma prayers when, a few metres away from their residence, two armed men riding a motorcycle opened indiscriminate fire, killing them on the spot. It is said the deceased had been receiving death threats for the past few weeks and the ANP leadership had duly informed the security agencies but no precautionary measures were taken.

The same day in Karachi a young lawyer was shot dead and his advocate father was wounded in what police described as a sectarian attack. The gunmen targeted them when they were heading to a mosque in their car to offer Juma prayers. Again on Friday in Lahore unknown assailants riding on a motorcycle gunned down a member of Sunni Tehreek Ulema Board, Khurram Raza Qadri, in the old part of the city. Police have yet to ascertain the motive behind the killing, but on the face of it, it was a case of sectarian assault.

On Friday another high profile murder took place in Islamabad where in a targeted attack, Chaudhary Zulfiqar, FIA's Prosecutor General in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case against former president General (R) Pervez Musharraf and others, was riddled with bullets by four gunmen in a yellow cab in the G-9 Markaz. It is reported that the attack took place as the lawyer was leaving for the Anti-Terrorist Court to attend the hearing in the Benazir murder case. Chaudhry Zulfiqar, who served the FIA for 25 years in its legal branch, was an outspoken lawyer and often talked about General (R) Pervez Musharraf's involvement in BB's murder. He was dealing with many sensitive cases, including Benazir's assassination, Army House, Ajmal Qasab and conspiracy against Justice (Retd.) Khawaja Sharif.

It is reported that he was in possession of sensitive information and concrete evidence about the involvement of terrorist outfits in various cases. Chaudhry Zulfikar was provided extra security last year after he was mentioned in threats received by police investigators working on the Benazir Bhutto case.
The source of the threats was unclear, but one investigator said he was told not to appear in court by an unknown caller using a number in Afghanistan.

Chaudhry Zulfikar's murder adds another gory page to the Benazir murder mystery which has not been solved in the last five years. Like him, some time back, Khalid Shahenshah, BB's main security guard, was also brutally murdered in Karachi. Needless to say, the way the PPP government handled the murder of BB left many question marks in the public mind. At one stage, both the UN and Scotland Yard were involved in the investigation, but the real truth never came out. The FIA Prosecutor General's murder throws another thick layer of secrecy over the case. Clearly, the conspirators who planned and executed the murder of BB do not want the truth to surface and are eliminating one by one all those in possession of incriminating evidence or information.

During the last 60 years the people of Pakistan have been witness to many murder mysteries and national tragedies whose perpetrators were never tracked down and punished. Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan was murdered in broad daylight but the conspirators remained untraced. Those responsible for the fall of Dhaka also went scot free. The hidden hands behind the Ojhri camp ammunition dump explosion were never called to account. The Kargil fiasco in which hundreds of our brave soldiers died is yet to be investigated.

A nation which does not learn from its mistakes is condemned to repeat them. Terrorism which poses an existential threat to us is a direct outcome of the inexorable process of meltdown - political, economic, social and administrative - Pakistan has been through over the decades. If the stakeholders and beneficiaries of the system do not wake up soon, the final collapse may not be far.

http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/

There are many reasons to understand why Pakistan needs a change: economically, politically and security-wise much needs to be done. It is unfortunate that during last 65 years half the time it has been civil democracy while remaining during the other half under military rule but one strange fact that has been unchanged is the need to get rid of the progeny of the feudal ruling class their third or fourth generation of whom is in the run for seats in the parliament in 2013 also.
It’s not a change of government that we need with newly-old faces back in office and the old selfish system perpetuated by exploiters installed on our head in the name democracy to make it a mockery. What we need is a real change of faces and of principles not cheating through media hype that no concrete program or a team is visible on the political horizon of the country. Only a Pakistan that is self-reliant, active and strong can shoulder the difficulties that are facing our country already and those that will be added in the future. While it remains to be seen if the forthcoming election can bring this change – one shudders to think what will happen if not- it makes sense to clarify what exactly this change would be and why it is so necessary. One reason for the failure of previous governments lies in the fact that they all failed to develop a positive national identity and coherence in Pakistan. Such an identity and coherence gives strength and authority to a government when dealing with the domestic and international problems of the country. Another fact is those who came in power were not dedicated politicians but rather mediocre sycophants and hangers-on who mistook their private interest for the national one. Our neighbor India has such an identity and that is why they can handle problems like the recent border crisis in the Ladakh sector of the Indo-Chinese border in a civilized and self-reliant way though the Indo-Chinese border conflict is longstanding one and the war 1962 that was fought between the two neighbors went in favor of China. After India detected that the Chinese army had put up tents in the Depsang/Olding sector on the Indian side of the border. India protested immediately but when China did not respond as expected India decided to treat the incident as a ‘localized affair’ not ready to risk the whole range of Indo-Chinese relations for it.
Now India and China seems to have reached an agreement on the problems in the Ladakh sector and the settlement that had been pre-negotiated between the two army representatives is expected to be confirmed during the forthcoming visit of the Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid to China. This is the way to handle international problems by responsible and self-relying nations. While issues of Kashmir, Sir Creek and Siachin have remained unresolved for decades and Pakistani leaders rather have acted in favor of India by waging three wars against a much stronger India and it is only after so long that vested interest groups succeeded by declaring trade first, opening border and giving MFN Status to India. First Pakistan has learned to treat the border issues as secondary and giving priority to Indo-Pak relations at large.
It is very different from how such problems are handled between the same India and its western neighbor Pakistan. Pakistan as a newly created country was rightly feeling insecure in the beginning of its existence especially keeping in mind Indian hostility and the Kashmir problem. But during the 65 years of her existence successive governments were unable to develop the population of Pakistan into a self-reliant nation.
By declaring ethnicity to be contrary to nation building and by imposing a flat and unpopular deobandi version of Islam during General Ziaul Haq regime on everybody much damage has been done to our national fabric. Ziaul Haq like General Musharraf was feeling insecure due to his unpopularity in the eyes of people so much so that when the US waged Islamic Jihad against Russians in Afghanistan Ziaul Haq turned Pakistan like a conduit to provide logistic and manpower communication through Pakistani territory that Kalashnikov culture made its way into Pakistan and later when US abandoned Afghanistan after the dismemberment of USSR, Pakistan was converted into safe havens for the mujahedeen.
Later this was again exploited by the US to colonize resources in the region when Musharraf adopted the US proxy war in Afghanistan to save his rule after the so-called 9/11 drama. As a result, the nation building process has been interrupted and weakness has marred the future prosperity of Pakistani nation. The so-called war against terror has further undermined and weakened the already weak state and its institutions including the governments. That is why Pakistan was unable to normalize its relationship with its neighbors on either side of its territory and instead looked for support towards a strong partner that could and would provide the strength that Pakistan and its governments lacked. Thus the unholy alliance with the US has come to hold Pakistan hostage making it unable to develop an independent foreign policy.
Pak-Afghan relations that have been marred by Durand line since day one of Pakistan’s existence is being used by US-imposed President Karzai to cover up for his own failures in their Afghan war. Pakistan is being lauded on Western media for first-time completion of a government of a full term of 5 years of the government though those five years have been democracy in name only and have brought the country to the brink of collapse.
Our elected government has also failed to impress on the US the fact that normalization of relations with Taliban is an imperative need of Pakistan while they try to make their own peace with the Taliban in Afghanistan. We know the aftermath of 2014 will only be possible to be borne by Pakistan if Taliban and the US reach a settlement or a power sharing plan in Afghanistan to secure US interest in this region. If this is not achieved this region will be further destabilized and Islamophobia will rule the roost to protect the US interest at the cost of Pakistan’s own. The change that seemed to be possible for a short while through the inspiring election campaign of Imran Khan’s PTI has turned after his unfortunate fall rather unlikely. But change has to come but it is hard to predict as the nation is confused on unnecessary blame game in electioneering that a new threat of Taliban is being exploited to achieve vested interest goal I shudder to think of repetition of March 1977 scenario emerging to block the people aspiration to bring a change through ballot on the 11th May. God help Pakistan.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/

Election results took everyone by surprise. The PML-N won beyond expectations, perhaps on account of its better management of the Punjab. The ANP was routed in KPK. The PPP and the MQM retained their mandate in Sindh, despite gross governance. The mandate in Balochistan was split.
This is a disturbing situation. The PML-N can comfortably form governments at the Center and the Punjab, but it has got no mandate, or a very small one, in the other three provinces. This has put a great responsibility on the PML-N leadership which will have to take the other provinces along. The PML-N got their mandate primarily in the Punjab, which elects the largest number of members to the national assembly.
The economy is in disarray. Reviving the economy would be the major responsibility of the government. The economic revival is also linked to the law and order situation. So the government would have to improve security and law and order in the entire country. However, the responsibility to control law and order lies with the provinces. Any interference in provincial affairs would not be tolerated by the opposing parties in the provinces. The federal government would have to move carefully and take the provinces into confidence. The provincial governments would be formed by the same forces outside the Punjab, by the same parties who were booted out of power by the PML-N. They know that if this party delivered in the next five years, it might capture all the other provinces as well.
Politics is a dirty game in Pakistan; the election campaign was dirty. The PPP crossed all limits in negative propaganda against the PML-N through the print and electronic media advertisements. The PTI leadership did the same in its public meetings. This, perhaps, backfired and benefitted the victorious party. The PML-N also cleverly passed on all its failures to deliver in the Punjab on to bad governance at the federal level.
This time around, the PML-N will form the governments in both the Center and the Punjab. There will be no chance to pass on failures to anyone else. It will have to deliver in the Punjab and, at the same time, help the other three provinces as well. If it fails to help the other provinces, it would be accused of a Punjab bias. So the economic situation will have to improve tremendously at the federal level.
The new ruling party is very well aware that the real problem lies at the federal level. The state owned companies are bleeding out Rs. 500 billion per year. The power sector is in disarray. Appointments at key posts were made on political considerations. Merit would have to prevail. The tax to GDP ratio is much lower than even in the Sub- Saharan African states. The tax base would have to be extended. Investment in the country has completely dried up. Even the domestic investors have stayed away. Their confidence would have to be restored.
The question is that does the PML-N have a competent financial team to take the country out of the current mess? They have nominated Ishaq Dar as the Finance Minister. He served in the same position for a few weeks during the PPPP-PML-N coalition in 2008. His hasty decisions accelerated the economic decline. As the federal finance minister he was supposed to safeguard interests of the state, but he was carried away by emotions and in order to defame the Musharraf regime he admitted at the annual IMF meeting that the country's finances were in disarray. That prompted all rating agencies in the world to downgrade Pakistan's economic ratings. He cancelled the launch of the sales of around $4 billion shares to foreign buyers of public sector companies when the stock market of the country was bullish. After his outburst against Pakistan's economy, the meltdown started. By that time the PML-N pulled out of the coalition leaving the mess to the PPP to handle.
As finance minister in 1998, he was the man responsible for freezing of foreign currency accounts in Pakistan. That eroded the confidence of the overseas Pakistanis in the government. One could only hope that he has leant from his past mistakes and he will run the ministry of finance more prudently this time. The economy cannot be run on whims or hasty decisions. One has to plan every move after considering the pros and cons of one's decisions.
Balancing the budget would be an uphill task for any finance minister in Pakistan. The government expenditures are much higher than the government revenues. The revenues have to be doubled to balance the budget. It is simply impossible to double the revenues immediately. We generate Rs, 2,100 billion tax revenues every year (if this year's revised revenue target is achieved). We need Rs. 1,100 billion for debt servicing, Rs. 600 billion for defense expenses and Rs. 500 billion annually to finance the losses of public sector companies. So the entire revenue is consumed under these three heads. There is no money left for running the government and for public sector development programs. The government has to resort to debit financing to the tune of Rs. 1,700-1,800 billion which puts pressure on the economy, the rupee and inflation.
The first objective should be to reduce this deficit. For achieving this objective the new finance minister would have to cut non-development expenses by at least 30 per cent (baring salaries). This would save at least Rs. 150 billion. The government would have to make sure that the tax collection increases at least by 15 per cent. This would add Rs. 300 billion to the kitty. At the same time, the new finance minister would have to ensure that the bleeding in public sector companies declines by Rs. 200 billion in the first year. This way the government would be able to reduce the budget deficit by Rs. 750 billion in the first year. If this objective is achieved it would be a positive signal to the outside world that the government is reforming the economy. It would restore the confidence of investors and pave the way for new job creation.
The entire economic team of the PML-N would have to work in unison. The Ministry of Commerce would have to devise ways to discourage luxurious imports; it will have to bring down the import bill by at least 10 per cent in its first year and initial policies to increase exports by 20 per cent to reduce the budget deficit. The Ministry of Petroleum would have to motivate the private sector and public sector companies to increase the production of oil and gas in the country. The Ministry of Water and Power would have to put its house in order. The postings in the power distribution companies would have to be on merit and be performance-based. The targets to reduce line losses and increase recoveries should be achieved by all means and the staff should be made responsible for any lapses.
The Textile Ministry would have to find new markets for the textile sector. Incentives should be provided to restart investments in this sector.

http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/

Policy, strategy and leadership deficit in countering terrorism

By Muhammad Ali Nekokara

The terrorist attack on Police Training College (PTC) Quetta on October 24, including the loss of 62 police and army personnel and injuries to more than 100 others, is heart wrenching. The sacrifice of these martyrs who were the hope and support of their aging parents, grandparents, siblings and, in number of cases, of their young wives and toddlers has brought an untimely and tragic end to promising young lives and careers. The young martyred police personnel, though committed to laying down their lives for their country, would never have wanted to lose their lives as sitting ducks while sleeping unarmed and unguarded. This has brought irremediable losses, agonisingly painful mournings and perpetual suffering to the families of the martyrs.

This tragic incident coming on the heels of the terrorist attack on Quetta’s Civil Hospital on August 8, that resulted in death of 70 lawyers, warrants serious introspection and review of our counter-terrorism approach in the province. As for our internal and external security polices since 1950s, there is considerably less to be proud about and a good deal to be embarrassed about. We need to make amends quickly for our past and current failures in this regard as the citizens inside and international community abroad are increasingly frustrated with our lack of clarity vis-a-vis counterterrorism.

A brief evaluation here of the security and policing issues in Balochistan would help us have a better understanding of the problem. Role of police and intelligence operations is considered crucial in countering terrorism. An analysis of 648 terrorist groups operating in the world between 1968 and 2006, carried out by Rand Corporation, titled “How Terrorist Groups End” (2008) found that most groups ended because of operations conducted by police or intelligence agencies (40 per cent), or because they negotiated a political settlement with their governments (43 per cent ). Military force was seldom (7 per cent of the cases only) the principal reason that a terrorist group ended.

It is, therefore, important to acknowledge that the role of police and intelligence operations is fundamental when it comes to countering terrorism. Police and the intelligence agencies are better placed, by virtue of their training, functions, and frequent contact with community to penetrate terrorists network and eliminate them than military.

Police in Balochistan is handicapped even by Pakistani standards. Role and capacity of police in Balochistan is particularly limited. Police are performing policing functions only in about 10% territory of Balochistan, called ‘A’ areas, and the remaining about 90 per cent of the Balochistan, called ‘B’ areas, are policed through Levies — a paramilitary force lacking basic police training, intelligence gathering and investigation skills. Starting in 2003, all the ‘B’ areas in Balochistan were progressively converted into ‘A’ areas by 2007. It was unfortunately reversed in 2010 — policing and security became a victim to politics of expediency. Levies are preferred locally by the tribal leaders over police as they are more aligned to their local tribes than to the law of the land.

The narrow political interests keep taking precedence over larger security interests of the citizens of Balochistan and the rule of law. As a consequence of two disparate policing arrangements, ironically the Balochistan Police are strangers in the ‘B’ areas of their province and likewise the Levies are strangers in the ‘A’ areas. This arrangement handicaps critical policing functions, such as, intelligence gathering, investigations, and inter-district coordination between police authorities compromising the security needs of the people of Balochistan.

Investment on the police, which is operational only in 10 per cent of the Balochistan, remains inadequate. Take, for example, the budgetary allocations in 2015-16 to Counter Terrorism Departments (CTDs) in the four provinces: Punjab allocated 4.7 per cent of total police budget to CTD, KP 3.6 per cent , Sindh one per cent and Balochistan mere 0.7 per cent. Sindh and Balochistan have been unable to initiate noteworthy steps to develop police capacity, especially, in terms of counterterrorism, which is one of the major reasons for almost never ending and continuously increasing role of paramilitary forces in these two provinces.

The provinces, that have invested in police and have given them operational space, as is the case in K-P and Punjab to varying degrees, are performing better in responding to the monster of terrorism than politically defanged Sindh Police and neglected Balochistan Police. The PTC Quetta with low and vulnerable boundary walls, inter alia, was an easy target. The current Inspector General of Police Balochistan publicly raised the issue with his Chief Minister (CM) during the latter visit to the school on September 6. The CM promised the required funds. But it was perhaps too little too late on part of police and political leadership.

Although the security plan of the PTC Quetta was abysmally inadequate and there is a serious security failure on part of police, however, in my view the PTC Quetta tragedy is an even bigger leadership failure on part of police and political executive of Balochistan. Police leaders must develop a habit of speaking out for legitimate needs of the constabulary and the organisation they are heading. The culture of obedience and deference to authority is deeply ingrained in our society and country’s history. The police leadership need to differentiate between their role and flawed cultural norms.

It is, essentially, the responsibility of the political executive to exercise their authority and set priorities in budgetary allocations. Security of the police trainees is the duty of the police leadership and the political executive. Collaboration between the intelligence agencies and the police is also critical to counter-terrorism. K-P and Karachi have recently experienced effective collaboration between the police and the Intelligence Bureau (IB). The scope of police and IB collaboration is limited in Balochistan due to absence of the police in the ‘B’ areas of Balochistan. This deficit needs to be plugged in at the earliest. The security of the ‘A’ or the ‘B’ areas of Balochistan cannot be augmented in isolation. If we continue to ignore the modern policing needs of about 90 per cent of Balochistan, we can neither protect the ‘A’ areas nor the ‘B’ areas effectively.

The writer is a former police officer

Source: Policy, strategy and leadership deficit in countering terrorism

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