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  #21  
Old Sunday, May 20, 2012
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Bottomless pits of terrorism
May 16, 2012
Mahir Ali

GIVEN the possible consequences, it would be facetious to suggest there is anything amusing about the latest terrorist plot blamed on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

The entity’s focus on fundamental garments is nonetheless bizarre.On Christmas Day in 2009, a Nigerian identified as Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab evidently attempted to detonate an underwear bomb on a flight to Detroit. Fortunately, the detonator did not work and he was taken into custody.

The explosives sewn into Abdulmutallab’s underpants are said to have been the handiwork of Ibrahim Al Asiri, who, undeterred by the failure, apparently endeavoured to finesse the concept, and is alleged to have come up with a device equipped with more than one detonator.

He failed again, this time because the person entrusted with delivering the deadly shock happened to be a mole rather than a dupe.

A couple of years ago, Al Asiri is claimed to have gone even deeper in an attempt to assassinate Saudi security chief Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The bomb-maker’s brother, posing as a repentant jihadi, is said to have sought an interview with the prince while equipped with explosives concealed within an orifice proximate to his underpants. The detonator worked, the target survived.

This time the purported bomb — reportedly devoid of metallic elements and therefore potentially undetectable by most airport scanning devices — has ended up in the hands of the FBI. At the same time, the scanty revelations have stirred up something of a storm within the intelligence community, with a variety of former CIA operatives suggesting that absolute secrecy would have been the ideal option.

That’s not an altogether illogical opinion: it can certainly be argued that it would have been wiser to leave AQAP wondering about what had become of its latest underwear bomber than to make it clear that he was an infiltrator. Just a couple of a months ago, the terrorist organisation released a video that culminated in the execution of a purported Saudi spy. Last week’s news reports are bound to enhance its paranoia, thereby reducing the likelihood of successful infiltrations in the future.

At the same time, concerns about revealing the extent of collaboration between Saudi, American and British intelligence agencies is surely overblown. That they share information and at least occasionally act in concert could hardly come as a surprise to anyone. The mole, whose identity remains secret, was initially said to be a Saudi citizen, but subsequent reports indicated he was a British passport-holder of Yemeni provenance.

The UK passport meant he could travel to the US without a visa, which is believed to have increased his value in AQAP’s eyes.
Presumably it must also have meant he emerged unscathed from a thorough vetting procedure. Whether that would have sufficed for AQAP to simply hand him Al Asiri’s latest innovation and ask him to don it on any flight he chose to take to the US must surely be open to doubt. Such a lax, laissez-faire approach hardly conforms with the image of AQAP as the deadliest Al Qaeda affiliate on earth.

Which is a reminder that the leaks so vociferously decried by sections of the intelligence community have been decidedly selective. The Associated Press, the initial conduit for the information, apparently sat on it for a few days at the request of the White House, with the latter worried that premature publicity could compromise the targeted assassination of Fahd Al Quso, an AQAP leader said to have been wanted in connection with the USS Cole bombing of 2000.

It has been suggested that he was also involved in the most recent plot, and that intelligence from the mole was crucial in pinpointing his whereabouts.

The latter factor is also said to account in part for MI6’s reticence about the affair, given that British intelligence agencies have been forbidden for 50 years from taking part in plots involving assassinations.

No one suggests they have abided by this rule, but the British reputation for reserve comes in handy in such circumstances, and even the suggestion that Anglo spooks must be furious with their transatlantic cousins has come from American sources.

The Americans, on the other hand, have abandoned all qualms about playing judge, jury and executioner anywhere on earth, with parts of Yemen serving as the second busiest area of drone operations, after Pakistan’s border regions.

Those behind these acts of war will no doubt have drawn some comfort from documents found in Osama bin Laden’s last lair suggesting that the Al Qaeda figurehead was deeply concerned about the Predator and Reaper raids in Waziristan.

It’s hardly remarkable, incidentally, that during his recent visit to Britain Pakistan’s prime minister ascribed Bin Laden’s long-undetected presence in his country to “an intelligence failure from all over the world”, even as Islamabad has vociferously been denying American suggestions that Ayman Al Zawahiri is — at least for the moment — safely ensconced somewhere in Pakistan.

That’s not a particularly convincing stance in the light of the Bin Laden experience, and Yousuf Raza Gilani hinted as much when he pleaded ignorance in London, saying: “If there is any credible information please share it with us, so we can be quick and achieve our targets.”

“Achieving targets” is a curious notion in this context, although it may find resonance in the US, where faith in drone strikes — notwithstanding their moral dubiousness and the rather obvious parallel with terrorist actions — is considerably stronger than support for a continued military presence in Afghanistan.

“If the Bush administration didn’t like somebody,” Noam Chomsky told Democracy Now on Monday, “they’d kidnap them and send them to torture chambers. If the Obama administration decides they don’t like somebody, they murder them.”

Barack Obama may have positioned himself on the right side of history in terms of gay marriage, but, notwithstanding occasional ostensible successes, his administration’s approach towards combating terrorism remains almost as excremental on the moral plane as the intentions of would-be underwear bombers.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com
-Dawn
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  #22  
Old Sunday, May 20, 2012
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The pits of terrorism
May 16, 2012
Mahir Ali

Given the possible consequences, it would be facetious to suggest there is anything amusing about the latest terrorist plot blamed on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The entity’s focus on fundamental garments is nonetheless bizarre.

On Christmas Day in 2009, a Nigerian identified as Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab evidently attempted to detonate an underwear bomb on a flight to Detroit. Fortunately, the detonator did not work and he was taken into custody. The explosives sewn into Abdulmutallab’s underpants are said to have been the handiwork of Ibrahim Al Asiri, who, undeterred by the failure, apparently endeavoured to finesse the concept, and is alleged to have come up with a device equipped with more than one detonator.

He failed again, this time because the person entrusted with delivering the deadly shock happened to be a mole rather than a dupe.

A couple of years ago, Al Asiri is claimed to have gone even deeper in an attempt to assassinate Saudi security chief Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The bomb-maker’s brother, posing as a repentant jihadi, is said to have sought an interview with the prince while equipped with explosives concealed within an orifice proximate to his underpants. The detonator worked, the target survived.

This time the purported bomb — reportedly devoid of metallic elements and, therefore, potentially undetectable by most airport scanning devices — has ended up in the hands of the FBI. At the same time, the scanty revelations have stirred up something of a storm within the intelligence community, with a variety of former CIA operatives suggesting that absolute secrecy would have been the ideal option.

That’s not an altogether illogical opinion: it can certainly be argued that it would have been wiser to leave AQAP wondering about what had become of its latest underwear bomber than to make it clear that he was an infiltrator. Just a couple of months ago, the terrorist organisation released a video that culminated in the execution of a purported Saudi spy. Last week’s news reports are bound to enhance its paranoia, thereby reducing the likelihood of successful infiltrations in the future.

At the same time, concerns about revealing extent of collaboration between Saudi, American and British intelligence agencies is surely overblown. That they share information and, at least, occasionally act in concert could hardly come as a surprise to anyone. The mole, whose identity remains secret, was initially said to be a Saudi citizen, but subsequent reports indicated he was a British passport-holder of Yemeni provenance.

The UK passport meant he could travel to the US without a visa, which is believed to have increased his value in AQAP’s eyes. Presumably it must also have meant he emerged unscathed from a thorough vetting procedure. Whether that would have sufficed for AQAP to simply hand him Al Asiri’s latest innovation and ask him to don it on any flight he chose to take to the US must surely be open to doubt. Such a lax, laissez-faire approach hardly conforms with the image of AQAP as the deadliest Al Qaeda affiliate on earth.

Which is a reminder that the leaks so vociferously decried by sections of the intelligence community have been decidedly selective. The Associated Press, the initial conduit for the information, apparently sat on it for a few days at the request of the White House, with the latter worried that premature publicity could compromise the targeted assassination of Fahd Al Quso, an AQAP leader said to have been wanted in connection with the USS Cole bombing of 2000. It has been suggested that he was also involved in the most recent plot, and that intelligence from the mole was crucial in pinpointing his whereabouts.

The latter factor is also said to account in part for MI6’s reticence about the affair, given that British intelligence agencies have been forbidden for 50 years from taking part in plots involving assassinations. No one suggests they have abided by this rule, but the British reputation for reserve comes in handy in such circumstances, and even the suggestion that Anglo spooks must be furious with their transatlantic cousins has come from American sources.

The Americans, on the other hand, have abandoned all qualms about playing judge, jury and executioner anywhere on earth, with parts of Yemen serving as the second busiest area of drone operations, after Pakistan’s border regions. Those behind these acts of war will no doubt have drawn some comfort from documents found in Osama bin Laden’s last lair suggesting that the Al Qaeda figurehead was deeply concerned about the Predator and Reaper raids in Waziristan.

It’s hardly remarkable, incidentally, that during his recent visit to Britain Pakistan’s prime minister ascribed bin Laden’s long-undetected presence in his country to “an intelligence failure from all over the world”, even as Islamabad has vociferously been denying American suggestions that Ayman Al Zawahiri is safely ensconced somewhere in Pakistan.

“Achieving targets” is a curious notion in this context, although it may find resonance in the US, where faith in drone strikes — notwithstanding their moral dubiousness and the rather obvious parallel with terrorist actions — is considerably stronger than support for a continued military presence in Afghanistan. “If the Bush administration didn’t like somebody,” Noam Chomsky told Democracy Now on Monday, “they’d kidnap them and send them to torture chambers. If the Obama administration decides they don’t like somebody, they murder them.”

Barack Obama may have positioned himself on the right side of history in terms of gay marriage, but, notwithstanding occasional ostensible successes, his administration’s approach towards combating terrorism remains almost as excremental on the moral plane as the intentions of would-be underwear bombers.
Mahir Ali is a former assistant editor of Khaleej Times

Source: Khaleej Times
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  #23  
Old Sunday, May 20, 2012
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A love affair with violence
May 16, 2012
Syed Moazzam Hai

Anders Breivik, the self assured killer of 77 people in Utoeya, Norway, has been a diehard fan of violent computer games, he boasted in front of the court that he once played ‘Modern Warfare’ for 17 hours straight, he also explained that he used such computer games to plan out the police response and his best escape strategy.

Breivik was benefitted in his own preferred way from his lethal infatuation, however, people had to pay with their lives for his passion for violence. But Breivik is, of course, not the only fan of violent computer games around, there are seemingly infinite millions of virtual warriors amongst us who’d play the game as more than a game, including people as devoted as an American mother jailed last year for 25 years after her three year old daughter died from malnutrition as she played World of Warcraft reputed as one of the world’s most addictive computer games for long endless hours.

Psychiatrists, social scientists, intellectuals and other such men and women of academic wisdom would enlighten us on their theory that computer games and for that matter movies, TV programmes and other forms of violent ‘entertainment’ have actually got nothing to do with violence in our societies hence we must not blame them. In a way they have a point there. Violence is inbuilt and quite inseparable a component of human instinct. Same logic, however, does not go for the outside stimulus to violence. And to be realistic we do not need psychiatric commandments on the effects or no effects of violence, we do not need a scholastic discourse on something we observe daily with our non psychiatric selves. There are more than ever reported incidents of school and college violence, family violence is also up and violent crimes are getting uglier and more shocking in our societies.

Violent actions and words entail a social cost that’s borne heavily by people and society, those profiting from promotion of violence should at least be paying more for their gains. We may not be able to ban violence in entertainment but we may make it a more costly pleasure for its producers and takers, we may tax it heavily and that maybe an initial step in discouraging the further pervasion of violent entertainment in scope and intensity. We the common folks have already too many complexities in life, businesses complicating them further with the stimulus of glamourised violence should be sharing more of their booty with the society.

We need global consensus and action for imposing a higher percentage of tax on violent computer games, movies and other entertainment elements. There should ideally be universally uniform tax ratio on violent forms of entertainment. The target of enhanced taxation should of course be the hardcore violence otherwise there’s violence even in Charlie Chaplin’s movies.

Human life has a value, which is presented as a grossly devalued commodity in violent forms of entertainment contributing to the increasing disregard for the value of human life around us. How long can we let it go unchecked?
Syed Moazzam Hai is a freelance contributor
Source: Khaleej Times
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  #24  
Old Monday, May 21, 2012
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Targeting the tombs
May 18, 2012
Shahab Usto

We have seen terrorists blow up the shrines of mystics and saints — Bari Imam, Data Ganj Baksh, Abdullah Shah Ghazi, Sakhi Sarwar — but now even poets and political icons are in the crosshairs of terrorism. Akora Khattak, a small city in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, has been twice hit by terrorism; one to destroy the mausoleum of Khushal Khan Khattak, a great Pashtun poet and freedom fighter of the 17th century, and then to destroy the under-construction tomb of Ajmal Khattak, a left-leaning politician and poet.

For years, Pakistan has been an eerie lab of extremism. Ever new arts and artifacts of terrorism are invented here to achieve religio-political objectives. Often the ingenious terror operators leave security and intelligence apparatuses dumbfounded. Bombing of shrines are not new in recent and contemporary history. In fact, shrine, seminary and mosque have respectively played a pivotal role in the Iranian revolution, the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, and the ongoing Arab Spring.

Nevertheless, the sufis, saints and folk poets are much revered in the subcontinent. People feel affinity with their spiritual and emotional lores that transcend scholastic divisions and touch chords of humanism, love, amity and aesthetics. Indeed, the local mystical traditions have been anti-monarchical and anti-dogmatic clergy. No wonder, there are many shrines in Pakistan that are visited by both Muslims and non-Muslims.

And that explains why shrines came under parochial and sectarian eyes, particularly since the times General Ziaul Haq imported from Saudi Arabia a virulent (Salafi) narrative of Islam that, inter alia, berates ‘grave worshiping’ as un-Islamic. Salafism is akin to, or some would say, a branch of Wahabiism that stresses a narrow puritanical version of Islam. The House of Saud adopted it in the early last century. Its tenet — ‘going back to the basic of Islam’– was used to unite and turn the tribal Saudi peninsula into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Since Wahabiism and Salafiism, with its going back to basics slogan, developed as a reaction both to liberal Islamic and modern western traditions, the Wahhabi and the Salafi political message was to resist both diversity and modernity. The emergence of al Qaeda, and later the Taliban, are a case in point. Luckily, the subcontinental culture is too diverse and too variegated to fit into a narrow scholastic version. History witnessed socio-political conflicts whenever such an effort was made.

Indeed, many historians would agree that the unravelling of the centuries-old Mughal Empire began with Emperor Aurangzeb’s rise to the throne in the wake of a bloody fratricidal war in the 17th century. It was largely his narrow vision of Islam that disturbed the delicate balance between the minority Muslim and the majority non-Muslim populace crafted by that great syncretic king, Akbar, and continued by his successors. Aurangzeb kept the Mughal Empire alive with his sword. But the Indian subcontinent plunged into decay and anarchy soon after his death.

Pathans invaded Delhi from the north and west, the Hindu revivalists from the south, and the English from the east. Except for a brief interlude of the war of independence (1857-58) when a transient quest for redeeming India from the clutches of the English had transcended religious and social boundaries, the Muslims saw a continuous downturn in their social, economic and political fortunes vis-à-vis the Hindus and British.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has undergone the same trajectory since it was turned into a vehicle of promoting a narrow narrative of Islam in emulation, if not the wishes, of our Arab patrons. Like the House of Saud, General Zia used his narrow puritanical ‘Sharia laws’ to upstage liberal democratic forces, to use non-state actors in the region, to transform the professional ethos of the armed forces, his ‘political constituency’, into an army of Islam. And interestingly, like 18th-century Delhi, today’s Islamabad is also faced with existential threats from its northwestern and eastern borders.

But Pakistan is paying a heavy cost of this policy. Drawn into incessant ideological, political and sectarian conflicts, it has torn its social fabric, damaged its polity, surrendered its foreign policy, and suffered economic losses. Indeed, just as the post-Aurangzeb Mughal monarchs had turned helpless before the marauding forces, our central authority has been sapped to being ineffectual. The decision to reopen the NATO supplies to Afghanistan without achieving any reciprocal benefits debunks Pakistan’s costly image of being a great nuclear/regional power, thanks to our emotional and unwise international posturing.

Ironically, if our eastern borders have turned quiet, it is because India has successfully convinced the international community of the Pakistani state’s complicity in the Mumbai attacks. And if our traditional policy — strategic depth — is imperilled on the western borders, it is because the US-led 49 states strong ISAF won’t allow any ‘safe havens’ in Pakistan to be used against them in Afghanistan.

Neither did the long-awaited parliamentary resolutions demanding the stopping of drones operation and an apology from the US, nor the much trumpeted anti-US Difa-e-Pakistan rallies deter the world that is determined to stamp out terrorism from the region. Instead, Pakistan would have stood isolated if it had not reviewed its policies at a crucial time; rather, it would have been omitted as a stakeholder in the future of this region.

Thus, Pakistan stands caught in its own web, threatened by forces it nurtured. It is time the state shredded its ideological and partisan agenda to become a legally neutral, politically democratic, foreign-policy-wise peaceful, and socio-economically welfare-oriented state. It needs a supportive and mutually invested world that should not be accusing it of playing a ‘double game’ of simultaneously fighting and sheltering terrorists.

We must remember, destroying economic and administrative infrastructures is not different from targeting tombs and shrines — one scares off capital and investors, the other alienates the masses from a state that cannot protect their spiritual and emotional mentors. Either way, the state ends up losing its authority, legitimacy and face before its people and the world at large.

The writer is a lawyer and academic. He can be reached at shahabusto@hotmail.com
-Daily Times
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Old Monday, May 21, 2012
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Al Qaeda on the up?
May 18, 2012
Jonathan Power

The two bombs that went off last week in Damascus, killing 55 people suggest that Al Qaeda is out and about, not on the verge of defeat as appeared so after the death of Osama bin Laden.

The movement that claimed to be responsible, the Al-Nusra Front, whilst independent, almost certainly has ties with Al Qaeda. In an eight-minute video released in February Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, who took over from bin Laden, urged Muslims to help “brothers in Syria with all that they can”.

According to US intelligence Al Qaeda in Iraq responded by establishing terrorist cells in Syria. This is one reason why the US and the NATO don’t want to get militarily involved in Syria. They have, at last, learnt that it would radicalise more people and push them towards Al Qaeda. (Besides, the situation is not as straightforward as it was in Libya with one all-powerful strongman, one dominant religious sect and a fairly united armed opposition)

In Iraq Al Qaeda is active killing in January 132 Shia pilgrims. In Yemen it is in control of several southern provinces. It also nearly perfected, before the intelligence services of Saudi Arabia and the US got to know of it, an undetectable explosive-filled underpants to be worn by a suicide bomber intending to board a US airliner. Al Qaeda is the main supporter of Al Shahab in Somalia, which has wrecked much havoc although it is now losing strength. It is also increasingly active in North Africa with its influence reaching as far south as Nigeria. There appear to be connections with Boko Haram, the militant group in the north of the country, which has conducted many bombings of churches as well as UN headquarters in Abuja. Some observers believe that once US and NATO troops leave Afghanistan in 2014, the Taleban will invite Al Qaeda back in. However, others believe the organisation has now distanced itself from Al Qaeda and will continue to do so.

Al Qaeda’s reach depends on its franchise system. Without central control, only advice, these autonomous groupings could well increase in number. However, it is important to note that there hasn’t been a serious bombing in the US since 9/11 and not in Europe since the horrendous bombing of four commuter trains in Madrid in 2004.

Added to the positive list is the effect of the Arab Spring, which has brought non-violent change to Tunisia and Egypt and in Syria infuses the majority of protesters who are non-violent. The protesters and the democratic movements they have catalysed are largely insulating their countries from Al Qaeda proselytising.

Perhaps the biggest worry about Al Qaeda should be under-reported Bosnia.

I am convinced of this after reading a book by Shaul Shay, head of the Israeli Defence Forces’ Department of History. Although he doesn’t say this, there are Al Qaeda sleeper cells right inside Europe in a country that could in some years’ time join the European Union.

Al Qaeda and other militants went to Bosnia, he writes, when it was at war with Croatia and Serbia. They were involved in a number of atrocities carried out by the Bosnian army. As well a number of the suspected 9/11 bombers had been active in Bosnia. There are also militant cells in Albania, and parts of Kosovo and Macedonia.

Bosnia got off lightly in Western reporting of the war in ex-Yugoslavia that in a way concentrated on the attacks and massacres by Serbian and Croatian forces. It was usually overlooked that the leader of Bosnia, Alija Izetbegovic, had encouraged the youth to fight with the SS-Waffen divisions during the war. Later, Izetbegovic had no scruples about inviting in the militants, some of whom had joined Al Qaeda, to help in the fight against Serbia and Croatia. That was overlooked, too.
Jonathan Power is a veteran foreign affairs commentator
Source: Khaleej Times
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Old Tuesday, May 22, 2012
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Taliban resurgence

Raza Khan

The attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Lashkar-e-Islam have surged and yet again Peshawar is the victim. There have been more than five major attacks in less than three days, suggesting that the TTP militants have successfully regrouped.

This time round, the insurgents not only have targeted the police personnel but they have even attacked the civilians in Peshawar and that, too, in the Hayatabad locality, the most posh area of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa capital.
The attacks are not only disturbing for the residents of Peshawar, but suggest that the insurgents are far from being defeated. While inquiring after a friend who resides in Hayatabad, just after a barrage of rockets hit the area around 9:30 p.m. on May 11, he told the author that he just escaped the attacks, while the noise of the rockets hitting the area was deafening. The attack was made from the nearby Khyber Agency, where security forces are operating against the Lashkar-e-Islam militants. The attacks were quite unexpected, as one reckoned that the security forces must have taken extraordinary measures to secure Peshawar. However, the attacks have exposed the weak security of the provincial capital and now one should expect full-scale insurgent attacks on the city.

It may be mentioned, that only a day before the attacks on Peshawar, the LI commanders made a threat that if security forces would continue their operation in the Shalobar tribal area of the Khyber Agency, they would target Peshawar with rockets and other kinds of attacks, including on the city's airport. The ease and swiftness with which the insurgents carried out the attacks are, indeed, surprising. The rocket and mortar attacks on Hayatabad, although killing only one person and injuring around 15, which are relatively not significant losses, have terrified the residents of Peshawar, particularly those of Hayatabad. Many residents have already relocated to other places, while others are thinking of leaving the area.

According to an unnamed security official, who was quoted as saying by a section of the media, the heavy presence of the fighters of the TTP in Shalobar area of Bara forced security forces to launch military operations to clear the area. The same official said that militants of the TTP had moved into Shalobar and other areas of the Bara plains from the Tirah valley to carry out attacks against security forces with the support of the LI. The Shalobar area of the Khyber Agency is contiguous with Peshawar and the moving in of the TTP insurgents to that area has deeply endangered the security of Peshawar. The Tirah valley is located in the extreme west of the Khyber Agency bordering the Tora Bora mountains of Afghanistan. The coming of the insurgents from Tirah valley to Shalobar in the vicinity of Peshawar is itself surprising.

Although the security officials have claimed that the new development has prompted a military operation in Shalobar area, the question arises that when the whole Khyber Agency has been under constant curfew and military operations than how come the TTP were able to shift so many insurgents to the backyard of Peshawar? Now, as the military operation would be intensified, there are fears of large-scale attacks on Peshawar. It seems that the insurgents have been able to come closer to their long-cherished desire of making large-scale attacks on Peshawar. This is, indeed, a colossal security challenge and one is at a loss that how the law enforcement agencies would negotiate the threat.

More disturbing is the fact of the LI making a common cause with the TTP. It has increased the threat manifold. However, a commander of the LI, Muhammad Hussain, reportedly has denied the presence of the TTP militants in Bara and their alliance with the group. He claimed that the LI has enough power and resources to resist the security forces and that outsiders were not required. It may be mentioned that the Khyber Agency has been the base of LI and the TTP has not been able to get a firm foothold in the region.
However, given the nature of the insurgent groups there have always been chances of both the groups coming close to each. In fact, both groups did come close to each other but there have also been disagreements between them resulting in killings between the two groups particularly. Several fighters freom the Tariq Afridi faction of the TTP and Commander Azam of the LI have been killed in the clashes. The latter has already lost other lives in the said clashes between the two groups. However, if the decision of inviting the TTP insurgents is taken, or has been taken by LI head Mangal Bagh, then there would be no impediment in the way of the TTP and the LI making an alliance and launching militant and terrorist attacks from the Khyber Agency.

If the Taliban are able to dominate the Khyber Agency, it would be a big blow to Pakistani and US-NATO anti-Taliban and al-Qaeda efforts. Because on the one hand, for the first time the most important area of the Pakistani Pakhtun tribal belt known as the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), on the border with Afghanistan, would be under Taliban virtual control. The allowing of the Taliban in Khyber Agency by the LI would come in the shape of handing over of the area to the Taliban because in comparison to the LI, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is, by far, a bigger and more resourceful militant-terrorist organization. There is also a possibility that the LI, finding it hard to engage the government security forces, may resort to merger into the TTP, strengthening the latter at a time when it has come under repeated attacks from US drones and Pakistani security forces and needs critical support.

The history of the Pakistani Taliban shows that they took over control of various areas from other low-profile militant or clerical organizations. In South Waziristan, the TTP capitalized on the conditions after the killing of Nek Mohmmad Wazir in 2005 and Abdullah Mehsud in 2007, by security forces, while in Swat the government action against the non-militant clerical organization, the TNSM were fully exploited by Maulvi Fazlullah, also of the TTP. Once the Taliban have control in Khyber Agency, Peshawar would be in a constant line of fire.

-Cuttingedge
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KP’s counterterrorism plan — not what but how
May 23, 2012
By Ejaz Haider

Apparently, the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government has a plan to deal with terrorism and extremist violence. That’s good. The KP government also believes that the 3-D strategy (deterrence, development and dialogue) of the federal government is vague and falls short of a comprehensive state response to fight the terrorist groups. That’s even better.

So, what’s the KP plan?

Reports indicate the plan was presented before the KP cabinet, with the chief minister in the chair, through a presentation titled, Continuing Militancy, Challenge & Response. Full details of the plan are not known but some of the findings that have made their way into newspapers are interesting and, for the most part, apt.

The state is facing an acute internal security threat that requires a comprehensive response; the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will not put an end to it; the terrorist groups are motivated, well-trained and battle-hardened; a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan will provide strategic depth to these groups; the groups’ strategy is to corrode the state structure from the inside, ultimately eroding its writ; they have created space for themselves by acting as the government where there’s absence of the state’s writ; they rely on effective governance as well as coercion; the groups have propaganda, religious and political wings and have also developed a vast spy network.

As for the state’s response, the security forces are poorly equipped and trained, lack motivation, and the counterterrorism effort is disjointed. Solution: the state apparatus, all agencies and departments, will have to act in concert and implement a comprehensive strategy that goes beyond just relying on the use of force; the state will have to govern. So far it doesn’t.

The presentation has provided a set of measures that need to be implemented. That is where the rub lies. The presentation has warned that “failure is not an option”. And? Well, as one unnamed minister was quoted as saying: “It is a good plan but consistency, perseverance, implementation and accountability are not something we are known for.” Bingo!

Seems like the plan is doomed from the word go. But let’s not be harsh. It must be said that for a provincial government to take the lead on such a strategy is a good omen. The task is onerous and while plans can be made, implementing them is always the difficult part. There’s much theoretical literature on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations. By now everyone knows what needs to be done. The problem is how and arises because of two crucial aspects that set the irregular war apart from the regular, inter-state armed conflict: the centre of gravity and the definition of victory.

As I have written elsewhere, the French soldier and theoretician, David Galula, proposed four ‘laws’ for COIN (counter-insurgency). The centre of gravity is the people. That being so, people’s support is crucial. The problem in actualising this is how to co-opt and secure that active and friendly minority in the larger population which can help the COIN force in reaching out to the neutral majority. Not easy. Support from the population is conditional and cannot be taken for granted. Also, the very minority a COIN force will target for co-opting, because it is inimical to the insurgent/terrorist groups, will be intimidated and destroyed by the groups.

The groups know that this population is the starting point of the COIN force. Destroying this population is therefore the primary objective of the groups. This is what has happened in Fata. By the same logic, if the neutral majority is to be turned around, this friendly minority must be protected. This is the arena where the contest unfolds and this is where security forces have badly failed so far.

A related second problem is defining victory. This is also the problem of timelines. How long will it take to completely defeat the groups? Generally, the operations needed to protect the population from the mortal threat and to convince it that the COIN force will ultimately win are of an intensive nature and have long time horizons. “They require a large concentration of efforts, resources and personnel. The insurgent must be driven away and the COIN force must be able to strengthen its presence by building the required infrastructure and developing a long-term relationship with the population.” The COIN force has to do this area by area, using a pacified territory as a basis of operations to conquer a neighbouring area, what has come to be known as the ‘Ink Spot Strategy’.

This also means that victory is not merely the destruction of the insurgent’s forces or groups, though doing so and leapfrogging from one area to another is important. The crucial task is the permanent isolation of the insurgent from the population, the strategy of dislocation. Unlike conventional warfare, where strength is assessed according to the military or other tangible criteria, such as the number of divisions, the position they hold, the industrial resources, etc, in this contest strength is to be assessed by the extent of support from the population. This is true for both the insurgent as well as the counterinsurgent.

This has often proven difficult in the Pakistani context because of the religio-political narrative used by the terrorist groups and its corresponding appeal in society. Terrorist cells hide in the urban centres for urban strikes and recruitment is easy to come by because of this. Add to these problems exogenous factors like the presence of the United States in the region and how effectively its hubris can bungle indigenous COIN/CT (counterterrorism) efforts, and the degree of difficulty in dealing with the groups and their narrative at home is increased manifold.

Even so, the very realisation that the state mayn’t be doing enough — which it is not — is a good beginning for which the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government must be commended. Equally, the very nature of this war and its spread is such that a provincial government alone cannot deal with the threat. The KP plan, therefore, must be adopted by the federal government which can pull in other provinces to allow for a coordinated implementation of this strategy.

The Express Tribune
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The terror war and human rights
May 28, 2012
Sasuie Leghari

Nine days after the Sept 11 attacks George W Bush announced the launching of his “war on terror,” which he said “will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped, and defeated.” Thus began what was a veritable war on human rights which continues to this day. Those suspected of being enemy combatants in the “war on terror” are detainable without trial. The United States has been responsible for torture and maintenance of secret prisons, and gulags such as Guantanamo Bay.

On October 7, 2001, the United States declared war on Afghanistan and thereafter opened the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The purpose of such a facility outside of US territory was for the US government to avoid extension of human rights to the prisoners there, which are guaranteed under the American constitution. On June 6, 2002, the United States imprisoned two of its own citizens, Jose Padilla and Yasser Esam Hamdi, as “enemy combatants,” denying them the right to legal counsel and the right of habeas corpus. On June 28, 2004, the US Supreme Court ruled in the Hamdi vs Rumsfeld case that the designation of US citizens as “enemy combatants” and their indefinite detention without trial was unconstitutional.

In 2004 world media published photographs documenting torture and inhumane and degrading treatment carried out by US soldiers and contractors against inmates of the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq. In September 2006 President Bush admitted that the CIA had used “an alternative set of procedures” in interrogation of suspected terrorists. Under a ruling by the US Supreme Court on June 29, 2006, it was illegal for the Bush administration to create a third category of persons, namely “enemy combatants,” who enjoyed neither the protections afforded to civilians nor those afforded to non-civilians under the Fourth Geneva Conventions.

The existence of secret CIA prisons, which Bush referred to in a speech on September 6, 2006, was the ultimate breach of detainees’ human rights. In those prisons, as the US president euphemised, “alternative” interrogation methods were adopted. Meanwhile in Britain, the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair issued an order on November 11, 2001 suspending suspects’ right to liberty in cases falling under terrorism. That right is protected by Article 5 of the European Convention on Human Rights. The following day the British parliament passed the Anti-terrorism Crime and Security Act (2001). Section 4 of the act allows for indefinite detention without trial of foreign nationals suspected of terrorism. At the same time, their deportation to their own countries was ruled out under the pretext that they could be tortured or killed there.

Three years after their detention, the House of Lords ordered the release of three foreign nationals in 2004. It was the same Section 4 which had enabled the Blair government to imprison them without trial, or without even charges. At their trial the defendants were represented by two teams of lawyers. One of the teams was given security clearance to see evidence presented as grounds for the prisoners’ detention, but its members were not allowed access to the prisoners themselves. On the other hand, the second team of lawyers was allowed access to the detainees but not to the evidence.

The House of Lords ruled that the British government had acted in contravention of the European Convention on Human Rights when it issued the order suspending the prisoners’ right to liberty. It also ruled that Section 4 of the 2001 Act was incompatible with the right to liberty protected by Article 5 of the Human Rights Act of 1998. The government responded by repealing Section 4 and replacing it with a regime of Control Orders, which was sharply criticised by human rights organisations. The Control Orders have now been replaced with the Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures, which impose fewer controls on suspects but allow for greater surveillance.

The British government was complicit in many of the illegal actions against detainees by the Americans. These actions were in direct contravention of international human rights laws, specifically of Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights. The question of human rights has assumed new urgency in the face of a war allegedly conducted to defeat terror. This time the atrocities have taken an “alternative” form.

The writer works at the Islamic Human Rights Commission in London.
-The News
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Terrorism bogey
May 30, 2012
Waqas Aslam Rana

It is not easy to get published in the New York Times, unless your name is Husain Haqqani. His article titled ‘How Pakistan lets terrorism fester’ published in the Times on May 10 did not surprise me in the least; anyone who has been following the man’s career would have the same reaction.

But Haqqani’s latest piece of writing included something new and dangerous; maligning the superior judiciary of Pakistan in the media of his de-facto homeland. One shudders to think that the person writing these words was our ambassador in Washington until recently.

Haqqani directly accused the courts of allowing terrorism to foster by releasing various militants captured by security forces. He very conveniently failed to mention that the burden of proof in any legal system lies with the prosecution, which in this is the government of his current patron Asif Zardari. He would have us believe that it is not just the army and ISI who are harbouring terrorists. The Supreme Court is in on the act as well. No wonder the American administration tried so desperately and succeeded in extricating Haqqani from the Memogate fiasco.

Yet Pakistanis everywhere should take heart. For the Supreme Court has shown that finally justice in the country can also bring the strong and not just the weak under its grip. And this is not just restricted to the civilian leadership. Have we not seen the Supreme Court taking up the Asghar Khan petition and forcing the former chief of the army staff, General (r) Aslam Baig to appear before it? Can the Haqqanis of this world not see the chief justice personally looking into the role of the Frontier Corps in the issue of missing persons in Balochistan? Haqqani’s false allegations are merely an attempt to divert attention from Pakistan’s single biggest problem; the current government’s record-breaking corruption.

Haqqani has accused both the judiciary and the media of distracting the nation’s attention from ‘the threat of jihadist ideology by constantly targeting the governing party’. He is writing the only thing ‘good’ Pakistanis are allowed to write in the mainstream American media since 9/11; that militant Islamic ideology presents an existential threat to the country, that it is all home-grown and that the only solution to it is an unending military campaign. Each of these is a myth, carefully cultivated by neo-conservatives in Washington and liberal fascists in Islamabad.

First, parties based on Islamist ideals have consistently failed to attract a significant share of the vote in general elections in our history. This includes even the Jamaat-e-Islami, the most mainstream of the Islamist parties. Second, terrorism in Pakistan today is as much a result of Nato presence in Afghanistan as it is due to domestic factors.

This reality is completely papered over in the collective narrative propagated by spin doctors in America and Pakistan. Third, even a casual reader of history will attest to the fact that no insurgency has ever been suppressed through military means alone. It is always a political solution that eventually brings such wars to an end.

The article by Husain Haqqani is especially worrisome because it comes at a crucial time in Pakistan’s history when two great developments have taken place. First, we finally have an independent apex that has displayed the determination to do all in its power to administer justice across the board and without fear of political considerations. Second, after a long time the people in the country are beginning to think of a change that does not involve the army taking over. In Imran Khan and the PTI, they see a possible political option for improvement in the state of affairs.

Regardless of how the party does at the polls, the massive rise in its popularity has shown Haqqani’s premise to be false. The people want an end to corruption; they desire rule of law and a chance to lead a life of dignity – not endless violence caused by fighting an unwinnable war.

The writer is currently pursuing a Master of International Affairs at Columbia University, with a concentration in economic and political development.
-The News
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Fighting the fight
May 31, 2012
By Talat Masood

Despite Pakistan’s deep involvement in the fight against terrorism and extremism for over a decade, it has yet to truly formulate a comprehensive policy and action plan to combat militancy. It is essential that we do this because militancy combined with extremism feeds directly into terrorism. The government has essentially relied on the army leadership to formulate and execute policy. In this vacuum, many political leaders, especially from the religious and rightist parties (including Imran Khan), have come out with their policy prescriptions based on the idea that militancy will go away once we disassociate ourselves from the US-led war in Afghanistan.

While it is true that the foreign occupation of Afghanistan has given rise to a strong nationalist impulse that feeds militancy in Fata, that alone has not resulted in the increase levels of militancy and extremism we are experiencing. Overlooking other major factors that have transformed Pakistan into what some call the ‘epicentre of terrorism’ would amount to self-denial. It is possible that if the militants feel vindicated and empowered following Nato’s departure from Afghanistan, they may turn their sights even more forcefully towards Pakistan itself.

The recent attempt by the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government to devise a strategy to combat militancy, albeit delayed, is an admirable initiative. It needs to be carried forward to its logical conclusion by the federal government. We have already witnessed how many tribal leaders favourable to Pakistan have been assassinated in Fata.

As a result of flawed external and internal policies pursued over decades, Pakistan today, faces multiple sources of terrorism. Although, by far the greatest threat comes from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), jihadi elements, sectarian and ethnic militants also remain a serious threat. Although the army’s selective operations in Fata have brought about limited success, the TTP remains a potent threat. Attacks have occurred on major military installations, intelligence headquarters and places of worship where different radical groups have acted independently or in unison with other groups with the object of weakening the state and capturing power.

Poor governance, weak state structures and flawed national policies have facilitated the rising power and influence of these groups. Illiteracy, unemployment, the elitist character of our society and pervasive corruption also contribute to extremism. We need to neutralise the sectarian and radical organisations that practice and preach violence. The state should stop pandering to jihadi groups as it damages the credibility of its anti-extremism policy.

In 2008, when the democratic government took over, people thought that it augured well for combatting terrorism. Prolonged military rule had contributed toward strengthening militants. But the verdict of the people against military rule and their rejection of religious parties were regrettably not channelled usefully against extremist forces. To clean the swamp of militants required economic development and political integration of Fata into the mainstream, along with a host of other measures. Terrorism can be beaten when moderate forces mobilise themselves to isolate and defeat its perpetrators, but by remaining a silent majority they allow a free hand to militants. The TTP and other militant groups have become media savvy and are putting across their narrative effectively. Pakistan needs a forceful and positive counter-narrative.

Apart from banning militant organisations and keeping a close watch on their activities, the government should attempt to get to the roots of such groups. What is their motivation level, source of funding and who is providing them patronage? The TTP pays its cadres from earnings acquired from criminal activity, drug trade, charities and collecting local taxes. Their financial inflows have to be squeezed. The government has to treat terrorism as a criminal offence.

There has been a large internal displacement of people during military operations, nearly 300,000 in South Waziristan alone. If not suitably rehabilitated, they will be exploited by the militants. With 70 per cent of the population unemployed, a female literacy rate of three per cent, and a large number of people under the age of 30, the government’s highest priority in Fata should be to focus on providing employment and education.

Militancy and extremism will not be defeated piecemeal. Without a comprehensive policy and a serious action plan, we will continue to drift into a dangerously downward spiral.

The Express Tribune
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