March 30, 2012
By Waqar Abro
Exclusive Article

Should new provinces in Pakistan be created or not and what formula should be applied for their creation?
Since creation of Pakistan we have always taken decisions before bringing consequences of our steps into account and later on regretted that this or that policy should not have been brought. Presently, Pakistan is not at the stage of any experiment. Before initiating any step pertaining to creation of new provinces ground realities should be given a focused view. They must be debated at all forums and a constructive outcome should be considered as final decision.
Reason of creation of new provinces should mainly be administrative in nature and political in practice.
Otherwise, all the tribal based communities will put forward their demands for separate provinces that would not be financially problematic for state but also create chaos across the country.
Hence, there should be a referendum in the Hazara and Siraki belt of the Punjab for separate provinces. Though without bringing amendment in the constitution (Article 239) separation of provinces is not possible yet role of all stake holders is also important in this regard.
All stake holders should be summoned in a meeting being called upon by Prime Minister and demand of separate provinces be accepted on the basis of ground realities which are economy and administration division.
Making provinces on lingual basis will create state of callousness and anarchy for the state however this factor should not be followed otherwise Brohi, jatoi,mahar,kakars and many other communities will ask for their separate provinces later on.
What should be nature of demand?
Demand for creation of new provinces should not be political in nature. For the sake of augmenting seats in Majis e shura provinces should not be created and good governance factor should be given paramount importance.
At the time of beginning, Nigeria had only 4 provinces and there had been tribal clashes and bad governance issues. Later on president of Nigeria brought reforms and made 7 new provinces just to harmonize administration. Today, it has more than 17 provinces and most of them were created just to make governance efficient and effective.
Same has been followed in Egypt and India.
Hence, before creating new provinces we must take a look on our neighbor and Muslim countries stance on this issue and if we find it quite effective then it should be implemented in Pakistan.
The following challenges Pakistan will face after creation of new provinces;
1. Expenses of new administration
2. Conflict on resource distribution
3. Formation of new groups which will later on demand for their separate province on lingual basis
4. There would also be administration personnel and Para military forces issue
5. Political forces will also create problems for maintaining their hegemony over each other in newly made provinces.
6. Development projects can also be affected to an extent.
7. There can be emergence of turf war.

What is the role of Political Parties?
Political forces of Pakistan are not apparently serious with the new provinces issue. Each party wants to gain sympathy of the people just for its political interests. Same has been observed in MQM recent resolutions. Though MQM is largely considered as Provincial based political force yet it speaks of bringing reforms in KP where it does not have representation.
“If FATA demands for new provinces, MQM will support it” .(Altaf Hussain)
Presently role of PPPP and MQM on the demand of Siraki province is to break strength of PML N and PMLQ. Although, there are many issues concerned to administration yet Siraki province issue has been completely politicized.

What is the role of media?
Media is taking this issue for the purpose of commercialization not for the betterment of governance in the country.
So far talk shows are observed as biased and immature. It can have played its better role by suggesting or pointing International norms to the government on new provinces issue but it has further politicized it.

Perception of individuals
Most of the Pakistanis consider this issue as politically motivated however they do not favor creation of new provinces. But there are also many other people who hold the view that if provinces are created for harmonizing administration of the country and execution of service at lower level then this issue should be resolved and new provinces should be created.

Conclusion
Hence, it can be concluded as Pakistan is economically fragile and politically weak. If it is further experimented then situation in country can be worsen. Therefore, all stake holders should be summoned in a meeting being called upon by Prime Minister and creation of new provinces issue should be resolved on the view that they will be created solely for administrative purpose.

The article is contributed to pkarticleshub

Nasim Ahmed


How serious is the PPP government in its commitment to set up a Seraiki province? Is it just a political slogan to divert attention from its dismal governance record and, additionally, to needle PML-N in the soft underbelly of Punjab? Or does it really mean to go ahead with carving out a new province from the Seraiki speaking districts of the Punjab ahead of the next elections? Has it thought through the underlying implications of the sensitive issue and worked out its details, especially the repercussion such a move will have on other provinces?

These and related questions are being asked in the wake of the new, stepped up drive that the PPP has launched in support of its proposed Seraiki province. Speaking in Rahim Yar Khan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani said last week that the problems of the country cannot be solved until the creation of a Seraiki province. He said: "The speculations are prevalent that PPP was instigating people for a Seraiki province but our party is just manifesting people's need." He declared that without the creation of a Seraiki province, people of the area would remain deprived of their rights. In this context he also held detailed discussions with a delegation of dignitaries from Bahawalpur on various issues pertaining to the new province.

President Zardari has also become active in support of a Seraiki province. Visiting Multan last week, he announced that the Seraiki province would be created before the next general elections. In a meeting with party workers from Multan and other areas, he said the time was ripe for the formation of a new province for the people of south Punjab. He promised that he would visit every nook and corner of south Punjab in a bid to carve out a Seraiki province. In this connection, he claimed that the creation of a new province was the voice of the downtrodden people who had been facing tremendous problems for a long time. He also assured the people that "the Seraiki province will be made by the present government this year." To this end he asked Prime Minister Gillani to immediately start consultations with all political parties with a view to paving the ground for a separate Seraiki province at the earliest possible.

Whatever the PPP's plans, it is not going to be easy to divide Punjab and carve out a new province. The PML-N, the largest political force in the province, has its own viewpoint on the subject. It says that the issue of a separate province has been raised to weaken its position in south Punjab. Reacting to the latest PPP drive, a PML-N spokesman said: "Had the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) government been sincere in the creation of a Seraiki province, it would have evolved a consensus like it had done on the constitutional amendments." He also accused the government of spreading a sense of deprivation in the country and challenged that if President Zardari is sincere to the cause, he should raise the Seraiki province issue in the proper constitutional forum.

Among others, former senator Muhammad Ali Durrani, who heads the Bahawalpur Division movement, has strongly criticized the PPP move and said that President Asif Ali Zardari's announcement regarding the establishment of a Seraiki province was an open violation of the constitution as the law does not empower him to announce, or form, a new province in the country.
Durrani also said that the president, as a symbol of the federation, should not propagate ethnic and linguistic hatred. He regretted that the president was accompanied by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani in his "voyage of hatred on linguistic basis". He charged that Gillani was trying to create "Karachi-like circumstances in the peaceful region" through his statements. According to him, "Zardari and Gillani both are hatching conspiracies against south Punjab as they have failed to control the law and order situation in Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and in the northern areas."

The political rhetoric of the PPP leaders apart, the road to a new province in the Punjab is paved with a minefield of constitutional, socio-economic, administrative and ethnic complications not amenable to an easy solution. Within the Seraiki belt itself, opinion is divided over its administrative composition as well as its geographical boundaries. In the Bahawalpur region there is a strong movement for the restoration of the defunct Bahawalpur province with its distinct identity. A large segment of Seraiki opinion demands that the proposed Seraiki province should be carved out of all Seraiki-speaking districts of the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, through a presidential ordinance.

There is also a difference of opinion among the constitutional experts about the methodology for the creation of a new province. Some people say that such a move should primarily be endorsed by the elected assembly of the province concerned. According to the other experts, a referendum can be held to ascertain the opinion of the people concerned.

Given the heterogeneous and overlapping ethno-lingual groups inhabiting various parts of Pakistan, the carving out of a new province is not going to be an easy proposition. For, once a precedent is set by the creation of a new Seraiki province, no one can stop other disgruntled groups from demanding their own pound of flesh. We know that the demand for a Muhajir province is a long- standing one and continues to be raised by its proponents at critical moments.

Then there is the issue of a separate Hazara province which has received a new impetus following the PPP's espousal of the demand for a separate Seraiki province. The Pakhtun population living in Balochistan have their own set of demands for safeguarding their separate identity.

Lessons from other countries teach us that the creation of new provinces is a hornets’ nest which is better left alone. In some countries, new provinces have been created on the basis of linguistic identities, while in others administrative convenience has formed the basis of such decisions. There are examples of both in India.

But every country takes decisions in such matters in its own best interests keeping in view its special circumstances. Ethnic feelings in our society are very strong which is the reason why people remain Punjabi, Pathan, Sindhi, Baloch and Muhajir, even after some 65 years of independence.

Look at the ongoing ethnic conflict in Karachi and the killings in Balochistan.
We need to be very careful about whipping up provincial, linguistic and ethnic passions. For, once the ball gets rolling, there will be no stopping it. We need to handle the issue with greater maturity than has been shown so far. A beginning should be made with a thorough discussion on the subject in
Parliament to develop a consensus on the need, justification and methodology for carving out new provinces. This is the only way to put an end to the exploitation of the issue for partisan political ends.

-Cuttingedge

Restructuring the federation

May 8, 2012
By Rasul Bakhsh Rais

Since the passage of the 18th Constitutional Amendment, we have seen that voices in support of more provinces have become louder. Furthermore, we have also seen that an increasing number of groups and parties seem to be demanding that the existing provinces — if not all, then at least Punjab — should be broken up into small units. Let us first try and understand the reasons behind these demands and then explain how the future of the Pakistani federation is likely to be affected.

There are three reasons that should matter in our consideration of this issue. The first is the devolution of power to the federating units of Pakistan — a dream of the provincialists and a long-standing demand of sub-national political forces struggling for their rights. There are regions within each province, which have a different ethnic concentration than the rest of the province, and those who live in them do not want to see yet another province carved from the larger one. One fault of the present government has been to hold back on the local government system during its time in office and this has only reinforced the apprehensions of those who seek greater autonomy.

The second reason relates to the issue of ethnic majorities and minorities in each province. One may argue that since they have coexisted for centuries what is the problem now. The problem is that Pakistan has changed, and the ethnic configuration of its provinces has changed as well. Populations have increased manifold and the struggle over resources and physical spaces has consequently intensified.

The historical glue of keeping multiple ethnic groups together in one provincial fold began to loosen with the renaming of NWFP to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The political desire and some discernible political trends to create more provinces were already there, but at a much lower scale and without critical mass. What changed things was the consideration of the majority Pashtuns to insist on an ethnic name for their province. Perhaps, a pragmatic approach might not have generated feelings of alienation among other ethnic groups once the new name was adopted. This was not done and the people of Hazara division understandably protested when the name was changed.

The third reason is a spillover effect of democracy in Pakistan and is a product of the ‘law’ of unintended consequences. One may always dispute the quality, style and substance of democracy, but it has been there in Pakistan for a very long time. Even in its damaged and subverted form, it has created a new politics of entitlements, rights and groups consciousness. Furthermore, it has helped people shape and reshape their ethnic identity in a quest to access or retain power. Democracy is about rights, and democratic politics has always created greater space for social groups to demand their rights, and this includes those related to creation of their own provinces.

What has already happened in India is now bound to happen in Pakistan — ethnic mobilisation of minority ethnic groups for their own provinces. Democratic politics by necessity forces political parties to adopt popular issues, or popularise new issues where space for them exists. This is exactly what the PPP has done by raising the issue of the Seraiki province. Before this, the MQM also voiced its support for the Seraiki issue, again for the reason that it wants to expand its influence. Had there been no popular feeling for the Seraiki and Bahawalpur provinces, the PML-N wouldn’t have jumped on the bandwagon.

It is too early to say when the federation will be restructured, since new provinces will require a much broader national consensus. Also, when it happens, the change will not be confined to Punjab alone. That said, it will be safe to say that the politics of new provinces will be the defining feature of politics in the coming years and decades.

-The Express Tribune

Raza Khan

The long-drawn out debate and demands in the country for having more provinces ultimately took concrete shape when the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) government tabled a resolution and also managed to pass it through the National Assembly for carving out a Seraiki province.
In a quick quid pro quo, the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) also tabled a resolution in the National Assembly Secretariat for the formation of four provinces.

These included Hazara, Bahawalpur and FATA provinces. Passing or tabling of resolutions for more provinces is, indeed, a welcome one. Because the demand for all the above-mentioned proposed provinces has been quite strong not only among the political forces but also among the residents of these respective areas.

The Seraiki area and Bahawalpur divisions are part of the Punjab province while Hazara division is part of the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province and FATA is a federal territory with a specific legal and territorial status. Insofar as the Seraiki province is concerned, the present PPP government, particularly its Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani, who happens to be from the Seraiki-speaking belt of the Punjab also, have made it a life and death issue. PM Gillani, on one occasion, even went to the extent of posing a question to the opponents of a proposed Seraiki province: if the Seraiki province would not be created in the presence of a Seraiki-speaking prime minister then when would it be created? The demand for making Bahawalpur division a separate province has also been quite old. Likewise the Hindko-speaking population of Hazara division of the predominantly Pakhtun-dominated KP province, since long has been calling for making it a new province. The proposal for a province in FATA is relatively new, but is the least troublesome compared to the rest of the other proposed provinces.

The PPP seems to be in a hurry to carve out a Seraiki province so that it may be included as part of the party's election manifesto for the next elections.
Apart from the Seraiki and four above-mentioned proposed provinces, the demand for making Karachi-Hyderabad out of Sindh and a Pashtoon province in Balochistan has also been gathering steam. The movements for these different provinces is going to immensely impact the outcome of the next general elections and the fortune of the political parties; in short, the political dynamics of Pakistan. The tabling of the resolution by the PML-N for making four new provinces is a significant development because, before that, all political parties save the PML-N, had reached a tentative consensus on the need for more provinces. Even the PML-N had not unequivocally opposed the creation of more provinces but had only expressed its reservations.

It is important to note that when last time the debate for the creation of a Seraiki province reached a climax, the chief minister of the Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif, had stated that there should be a national consensus on the creation of new federating units and that Karachi should also be made a new province. Interestingly, when few months back President Asif Ali Zardari restored the old local government system of Commissionerate in Sindh, after the large-scale ethnic riots, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) came out in the open to demand making Karachi and Hyderabad a new province. This is the reality of Pakistani politics that the PML-N and the MQM, the two bitter rivals, made the same demand and their respective demands were ethnically motivated. It may however, be mentioned that after the revocation of the old local government system of the Commissonerate by President Zardari from Karachi and Hyderabad, the MQM has stopped demanding the creation of a new province in Sindh.

Nevertheless, the die was cast regarding the formation of a new province in Sindh. Irrespective of the MQM or the PML-N demand, the formation of a new province on rather provinces, in Sindh on an administrative basis is an exigency. Therefore, it is expected that new provinces may soon become a reality. However, if one new province is created it could lead to vociferous demands by minority ethnicities and communities in different provinces for their own provinces. In such a situation, the government would have no option but to accede to their demand.

Otherwise, serious problems may surface for the federation. Significantly, the
main ruling party of KP and the long-time Pakhtun nationalist, Awami National Party (ANP) chief Asfandyar Wali has already declared that his party would not oppose the formation of a Hazara province by separating the districts forming Hazara Division from the KP. The ANP has also made another important demand, that the Pakhtoon inhabited districts of Balochistan be made a separate province.

Significantly, the ANP has stopped short of demanding making these districts part of the KP, which is the political fort of the party. Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP), the political party with the largest Pakhtun following in Balochistan, had also welcomed the ANP demand; however, it has gone to the extent of making these districts part of the KP. Making Pakhtun districts of Balochistan another province could be a good administrative measure, but it would exacerbate the Baloch separatist movement. Because the Pakhtun community of Balochistan has been a bulwark against the break away of the province from Pakistan. Even then, Pakhtun areas of Balochistan are the most backward parts of the country.

The question of Bahawalpur province is a point of petty politics between the PPP and the PML-N. While the PPP is hell-bent to make the erstwhile Bahawalpur princely state part of the proposed Seraiki province; the PML-N wants to make it a new province.

The PPP intends to make the proposed Seraiki province so strong that it can rival in resources and population and, above all, in number of National Assembly seats the rest of the Punjab province and, thus, weaken the base of the PML-N. The PML-N is cognizant of the intentions of the PPP and therefore is fully backing a separate Bahawalpur province.

Without going into the implications of vested political interest, making Bahawalpur a new province would be of great administrative advantage. Making FATA a province is even more important in order to end its special status and to plug the political vacuum there, which has partly been the cause of religious extremism and terrorism originating from Pakistan. It may be mentioned that already certain civil society groups from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas like the FATA Grand Alliance have expressed serious reservations over completely ignoring reforms in FATA in the 18th Constitutional Amendment package, and have demanded making FATA a separate province. This means that a sort of forced consensus is being arrived at by the main political parties of the country regarding the formation of new provinces.

This is, indeed, a healthy political development as need for the formation of new provinces has been felt since long. The need has been mainly to improve administration as well as to equitably distribute national resources among the various ethnic groups, communities and regions. With the present huge federation units, the administration can never be expected to deliver the much-needed social services. Moreover, with the provinces becoming the monopolies or duopolies of majority ethnic communities, the rest of the ethnic and regional groups constituting that province always felt disempowered and economically and politically marginalized.

-Cuttingedge

May 21, 2012
Yasser Latif Hamdani

The emergence of new provinces holds out the most exciting promise of uniform development in our history. It also presents a constitutional solution to the lopsided federation that has existed so far. The number one issue in Pakistan that threatens the fabric of this nation state that exists today in the region is that of the inability of the central state structure to harmonise contending notions of identity working at cross-purposes. Therefore, the creation of new provinces is a welcome step in the right direction — the de-centralisation and rebuilding the state on the idea of unity in diversity.

The first outcome of this development is the re-configuration of the Senate. Inevitably, this means a reduction of seats allocated to each province in the Senate. This obviously means that Punjab as it stands today will triple its representation in the Senate but given that there is no guarantee that the three provinces replacing the main big province will act in unison, the situation should be acceptable to the smaller provinces. This may however serve as an example for other provinces, which may be tempted to maximise control and representation by choosing voluntary division.

The creation of new provincial capitals necessitates an eventual assumption of all functions including judicial functions by a particular province. However, in the interim period, the Lahore High Court can act as the high court for all three new provinces. This is not without precedent. In the pre-1947 period, the Lahore High Court was vested with jurisdiction over not just Punjab but the province of Delhi as well through the Letters Patent by which it was formed in 1919. The eventual formation of new high courts at Multan and Baghdad-ul-jadid (which was originally a high court of the Bahawalpur State) will no doubt make access to the courts for redress of common grievances much easier. It would also relieve Lahore of the additional burden it undertakes on this count.

Devolution comes with numerous advantages. Multan and Bahawalpur would be elevated to major cities as provincial capitals enjoying the same status as Karachi, Lahore, Quetta or Peshawar. It would help the middle classes in these areas to come up and seek the advantages of newfound sovereignty. As provinces in the post-18th amendment scenario — which with the exception of five common subjects (wherein the items in the Federal list fit in neatly), i.e. foreign affairs, defence, currency, communications and national ideology — embodies the principles of conferral, proportionality and subsidiarity that make federalism in Pakistan on paper at least a model for all of South Asia. A new dynamic shift in power structures is likely, which will strike down the ‘GT Road dominance’ over national policy-making. The GT Road geographical mindset promotes unthinking militarist ultra-nationalism; with it would go Pakistan’s more severe ideological problems. Once the middle classes from these new cities come up, there will be a serious ideological shift in the country.

The exercise should not stop here but also address the genuine grievances of various groups in the country. Making new provinces within the federation is a constitutional solution to many of our contentious issues. Already many marginalised groups, like the Christians, are demanding a province of their own. This might be too much for people to digest but to preserve the element of choice, it might not be a bad idea to also form a province as a large free zone area exempt from Pakistan’s Islamic laws and based on a strict separation of church and state. Minorities then could be enabled to live freely and develop their cultures as per the diktat of Article 2-A of the constitution. Even a theocratic Islamic state like Iran has a free zone with relaxed Islamic laws in Kish.

Pakistan is a multi-religious, multi-ethnic and multi-cultural society held captive in a straitjacket by a totalitarian centre that exploits the misguided idea of national ideology. By dividing and reconstituting, Pakistan can give expression to its diversity fully. As a state, Pakistan can go forward only by the consensus and participation of all stakeholders. Gone are the days of central rule and one unit. A new Pakistan is a Pakistan where people are active participants in determining their own destiny at every level. Having been lost forever between militarist statism and pseudo-democratic centrism, it is about time that Pakistan is re-imagined, re-cast, re-drawn and reorganised as a state along these lines. It is however not enough to merely state this and not give a solution. First, it would require us as Pakistanis to accept that it is a multi-cultural, multi-religious, multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and even a multi-national state. And that a Pakistani citizen has multiple identities, encompassing multiple situations and multiple classes, that there is no hard and fast distinction between the majority and the minority but rather an accommodation between various identities and classes that contribute to making the state one whole.

The writer is a practising lawyer. He blogs at http://globallegalorum.blogspot and his twitter handle is therealylh
-Daily Times

Nasim Ahmed


How many provinces should there be in Pakistan? It started with the proposed Seraiki province and now there is no end to proposals to create two, three and more new provinces out of the existing ones. The ball was set rolling by the PPP and now it is up in the air with everyone trying to catch it.

The National Assembly resolution on a new south Punjab province has been followed by a resolution in the Punjab Assembly in favour of giving provincial status to Bahawalpur in addition to creating a south Punjab province. If it is a game of one-upmanship, the PML-N has effectively countered the PPP's move to win over voters in the Seraiki belt. PML-N has also proposed that a national commission be established to discuss the issue of creating new provinces on historical, political, economic and administrative grounds and look into the complex issues of demarcation of new provincial boundaries and distribution of water and other resources.

If the PPP's intention was to merely use the issue of a Seraiki province as a political slogan to win over voters in the region, it now finds itself in a situation where it has to address the question seriously from a national perspective. A virtual Pandora's box has been opened with a babbel of voices from various provinces clamouring for their own pound of flesh. All kinds of formulas - reasonable, unreasonable, outlandish and weird - for creating new provinces are being propounded.

The PPP started with one province, while the PML-N has proposed two more provinces for the Punjab. From some quarters the demand for a Potohar province has also been voiced.

On the other hand, the demand for Hazara province is a long standing one and has a strong backing from the people in the region. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, FATA is another candidate for provincial status.

In Balochistan, there is a latent demand for a Pashtoon province, while some people have proposed a separate province in Balochistan comprising its coastal belt. The movement for Karachi as a separate province is dormant at the moment but can spring to life any time, depending upon the rise and dip in the country's political temperature. And not to be ignored is the proposal by Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to convert all the divisions in the country into provinces.

So, it is virtually a hornets' nest that the PPP has stirred. The genie has come out of the bottle and will not go back into it any time soon. If the PPP opts for a Seraiki province, how can it resist the demand for a Bahawalpur province or, for that matter, a Hazara province? Or the demand for any other province if the people of the area want it? If we go beyond sloganmongering and consider the issue on the basis of principle and merit, then the only way forward is to set up a national commission to go into the whole gamut of issues relating to the creation of new provinces as suggested in the recent Punjab assembly resolution. In this connection, it is pertinent to ask: if the backwardness of Seraiki Wasaib is the reason for demanding a new province, then will the political elite of south Punjab do something to solve the basic problems of the people? Because, many of its members have previously held high positions of power and authority but did little to develop the region.

The proposition that smaller units make for better governance and management of local problems is tenable. But, in our case, the situation is complicated and convoluted. There is an explosive combination of factors which militate against any benefits accruing from the creation of smaller provincial units: a political and bureaucratic elite which is extremely greedy, corrupt and callous; lack of an efficient local governance structure; and a largely illiterate population under the control of the local feudal and unaware of their rights.

The proposal for new provinces in the Punjab is easier made than implemented. There is a host of administrative, organizational, economic, legal and associated issues that need to be sorted out before such a step can be taken. The proposed national commission, among other things, will have to develop a consensus on the basic criteria for creating new provinces. Other crucial issues to be addressed are prior agreements on the boundaries of new provinces, working out a new national finance award, a new formula for distribution of river water and construction of new link canals and barrages. Other requirements include construction new courts, provincial secretariats and other infrastructure facilities.

Where will all the money come from to meet the new administrative expenditures involved in creating new provinces? But much more important than this is the issue of an agreement among all political parties in the country on the basic criteria and requirements for forming new provinces. A constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds majority which will not be available, if the major parties remain at loggerheads on the issue as is the case now.

-Cuttingedge

May 25, 2012
Kaiser Bengali

THE case for a separate province comprising south Punjab was always a slow burning fuse that has now exploded.

The creation of a south Punjab province has now been adopted as official policy by the ruling party and its allies in the centre. The ruling party in Punjab, the PML-N, has now also endorsed the demand, albeit with a proviso for a separate Bahawalpur province as well.

The issue is clouded in numerous misconceptions, which must be cleared. The demand for a south Punjab province cannot be predicated on an ethnic or linguistic basis. This is because, while the demand for a south Punjab province has been historically raised by the Seraiki-speaking population, there are large pockets of Punjabi- and Balochi-speaking population in south Punjab and Bahawalnagar is a Punjabi majority district.

The current tug of war over south Punjab is motivated by considerations of electoral expediency. The PML-N’s power base is upper Punjab, which accounts for two-thirds of the population of the province. As such, PML-N is expected to continue to emerge as the ruling party under the current configuration.

The PPP and its ally, the PML-Q, are electorally stronger in south Punjab and hope to form a government in the new province. The PML-N has tried to counter the PPP by adding the demand for a Bahawalpur province. This move threatens to act as a spoiler in the emerging situation, with potentially dangerous consequences.

The only rationale for a Bahawalpur province is that it was a princely state. But then there were other such states as well — Swat, Khairpur, Kalat, etc.

If all former princely states are to be granted the status of provinces, there will be tiny, fiscally unviable provinces located within the boundaries of other provinces. The result will be political and administrative mayhem.

The creation of a south Punjab province offers gains for Punjab as well. Currently, each of the provinces command about 25 per cent of seats in the Senate. With the new province, the provinces’ share will be reduced to 20 per cent of seats each.

What is Punjab today will command 40 per cent of seats. And it cannot and should not be assumed that, having split from Punjab, the south Punjab province will always take a stand in opposition to Punjab. In fact, with the large and influential Punjabi population in south Punjab, it is likely that south Punjab’s stand on many issues will be in sync with that of Punjab, especially on water issues.

The demand for a south Punjab province has a political basis, rooted in a sense of cultural identity and a sense of economic grievance. While the former emanates from the Seraiki language — a fully developed language in its own right — the latter is what provides the steam for the movement. Various sections of the population in south Punjab have always complained of neglect by what is referred to as Takht-i-Lahore.

It appears that there is a marked north-south developmental divide in Punjab, with south Punjab standing out clearly in terms of its relatively low development level.

A ranking of the 34 districts of Punjab by development level shows that the least developed districts in Punjab are in the southern part of the province, while — with the sole exception of Multan — none of the southern Punjab districts appear among the most developed districts.

And Multan district, home to the largest city of southern Punjab, ranks as the 12th most developed. In other words, 11 other districts in Punjab — all in upper Punjab — are relatively more developed than Multan.

Of the 34 districts, Lahore in upper Punjab ranks as the most developed. Being the capital of the province, this is understandable. However, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, Sheikhupura and Toba Tek Singh — all in upper Punjab — follow as relatively high on development scores.

By contrast, Rajanpur in south Punjab ranks as the least developed, followed by Muzaffargarh, D.G. Khan, Layyah, Lodhran, Bhakkar, Pakpattan, Rahimyar Khan and Bahawalpur — all in southern Punjab.

Lahore ranks first in rural as well as urban development, followed by Gujranwala as the second most developed district in terms of rural development and Faisalabad as the most developed in terms of urban development.

Rajanpur ranks 34th as the least developed district in terms of rural as well as urban development, followed by Dera Ghazi Khan as the second least developed in terms of rural development and Lodhran as the least developed in terms of urban development.

Needless to point out, Lahore, Gujranwala and Faisalabad are in upper Punjab and Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan and Lodhran are in southern Punjab.

South Punjab districts not only rank low in terms of development indicators, but also with respect to certain key indicators, particularly employment. The ranking of districts by rural employment opportunities shows that Pakpattan, Rajanpur and D.G. Khan — all in southern Punjab — suffer from the highest unemployment, while Lahore, Sheikhupura and Gujranwala — all in upper Punjab — experience the least unemployment.

With respect to urban employment opportunities, Mianwali, Rajanpur and Layyah — all in southern Punjab — suffer from the highest unemployment, while Kasur, Faisalabad and Lahore — all in upper Punjab — experience the least unemployment.

Grievances related to deprivation apart, there are strategic gains nationally from the creation of the south Punjab province. Currently, the federation is unbalanced, with Punjab alone comprising the majority and all the rest of the provinces combined constituting a minority.

The bifurcation of Punjab will create a degree of balance interprovincially. Of course, upper Punjab will continue to be the largest province, with about 40 per cent of the national population; but the fact that it will command less than 50 per cent of the seats in parliament will serve to allay much of the apprehensions that the currently smaller provinces suffer from.

In fact, divisive terminologies — big brother and smaller provinces — will tend to disappear from the political discourse and the federation will emerge as a more stable entity.

The writer is an economist and former head of the Benazir Income Support Programme.
-Dawn