Cameron Harrington and Asim Ali
Saturday, March 31, 2012

The issue of water has garnered much international attention in recent days. A new report, “Global Water Security,” by US intelligence agencies stated that over the next decade “water problems will contribute to instability in states important to US national security interests.” Earlier, the world’s water leaders met at the World Water Forum in Marseilles, France, and on Thursday, March 22, marked the annual World Water Day – to draw attention to water scarcity issues. Considering the scale and scope of the problems related to water, it is necessary to take pause and identify the challenges and opportunities that water presents for Pakistan and the wider South Asian region.

In the end, if the water crisis is to be properly managed, strategies need to be found that minimise threats and maximise opportunities. For Pakistan and India, such strategies should be formulated with a commitment to dialogue and negotiation with all water shareholders. The approaches of the past, undertaken with a heavy emphasis on bellicose rhetoric and tortured indignation have led to reactive, unsustainable policies and worsened relations with necessary regional water partners. It is time that the South Asian actors accept the reality that elusive water resources transcend political boundaries and cannot be managed in isolation. The region must accept the inevitable allegiances of water.

Water is the lifeblood of a nation. No nation can survive, let alone thrive, without proper access to and management of water. In this respect, nations have a duty to protect and preserve precious water resources. Security experts and officials have often predicted that water will ignite localised conflict in South Asia. In the case of the subcontinent, where the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan are always tenuous, a 2009 CIA report concluded “the likelihood of conflict between India and Pakistan over shared river resources is expected to increase.”

President Asif Ali Zardari, in a Washington Post article warned: “The water crisis in Pakistan is directly linked to relations with India. Its resolution could prevent an environmental catastrophe in South Asia, but failure to do so could fuel the fires of discontent that may lead to extremism and terrorism.” Meanwhile, the Economist magazine recently noted: “More rows between India and Pakistan are certain. India may keep on dismissing them as Pakistani bluster, an easy thing to do if you are upstream.”

However, the problems that arise when viewing water solely as a matter of national security are many. Predictions that label water as an inevitable source of conflict belie the historical reality that few, if any, wars have ever been fought over water. Warnings of impending “water bombs” overlook the much stronger record of cooperation over shared water resources. A singular focus on linking war and conflict with dwindling resources simply reaffirms the relations of distrust and discord between nations. Relations over water are far more complex and multi-layered than a blind focus on national security allows.

Primarily, water should be seen as essential to the health and well-being of individuals. According to the just-released (March 2012) World Water Development Report nearly one billion people around the world still lack access to improved sources of drinking water and there are more people today who do not have access to tap water than there were in the late 1990s. With South Asia’s rapid population expansion showing no signs of slowing down and the volatile effects of climate change sure to worsen, a focus on individual human security is a far more useful approach to improving water relations. South Asia is in store for a long, hot, crowded, century. It behoves governments of the region to increase cooperation rather than ratchet up further tensions with threats and enflamed rhetoric. Such thinking gets us nowhere.

The fact is that water should not be viewed merely as a “threat multiplier” – as something that will exacerbate already existing regional tensions. Instead, water presents the subcontinent with opportunities to defuse tensions and engage in necessary confidence-building measures. Despite its deficiencies, the Indus River Treaty remains the most successful and resilient international agreement in the region.

Water is the foundation for development. If one focuses on the financial crisis, the energy crisis, or the food crisis, one runs into water. It is the implicit linchpin of all major sectors related to human well-being. To discard it to the purview of national security will fail to adequately address the core political and governance problems at the root of water scarcity, and will serve only to further tensions; the further suffering of individuals would be the only result.

Last week the debate raged on un-conclusively in the official corridors of the World Water Forum and on the streets of Marseilles about whether water should be declared a human right. Today, as we take stock of the current water picture in regions around the world, we would be well-served to understand that water cuts across all section of life and security. Water is the figurative lifeblood of the nation. But we must also understand that water literally quenches the thirst of all the flocks of humanity.


The writers are doctoral candidates in the department of political science, University of Western Ontario, Canada
The News

By Syed Mohammad Ali
April 2, 2012

Over 90 per cent of Pakistan’s fresh water resources are being used for agriculture. As water scarcity across the country increases, the requirement to attain sustainability remains a contested issue.

Government-managed irrigation and water supply services have not been able to provide effective services. Irrigation water users pay an abiana charge levied by provincial governments. However, these charges are insufficient to pay the cost of efficient operations, maintenance and replacement costs. The irrigation and drainage sector of Pakistan has thus been trapped in the cycle of inadequate funding, maintenance, supply, and recovery.

Since the 1990s, the World Bank has been trying to undertake institutional reforms in irrigation management. While promising a reform model which would ensure greater accountability to clients, the World Bank’s own assessments indicate that these reforms have failed to tackle the fundamental issues of more equitable water supply to farmers, irrespective of their level of affluence.

The World Bank has also provided our government massive loans for construction of canals and large dams over several decades, which in turn have created massive problems of waterlogging and salinity, especially in the heavily irrigated province of Punjab. To address the problem, the World Bank built drainage canals to divert agricultural run-off in the form of the Left Bank Outfall Drain and the National Drainage Program Project. But evaluations found the designs of these projects to cause contamination of drinking water supplies, damage to surrounding fields, loss of livelihoods and large-scale destruction of wetlands.

Despite this lacklustre record, the Government of Punjab has taken another loan of $250 million from the World Bank for the Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Productivity Improvement Program. This new initiative aims at maximising irrigational productivity by rehabilitation and up-gradation of existing systems to enhance water conveyance efficiency and initiating new irrigating schemes. One wonders what the exact location of these schemes will be, whose farmlands will reap their direct benefit and what will be their long-term environmental impacts.

This new project further aims to promote modern irrigation technologies to achieve greater agricultural output per unit of water used through use of drip and sprinkler irrigation systems, and provision of laser levelling equipment at subsidised rates. The elite farmer’s capture of the subsidy schemes is, however, a major problem which has repeatedly been witnessed in the past. For instance in the provision of tractors under the Green Revolution, or the ongoing government wheat procurement schemes, the beneficiaries invariably tend to be larger rather than smaller farmers. So while corporate and big farmers will have no problem procuring subsidised laser levelling equipment, whether smaller farmers enjoy the fruits of this latest World Bank-funded government beneficence remains to be seen.

The Express Tribune

By: Dr Ahmad Saeed Bhatti | March 15, 2013 . 2

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992, declared March 22 as the World Water Day. The day is celebrated to mark the implementation of the UN recommendations (Earth Summit Agenda 21), i.e. to work out proposals and arrange activities to emphasise reduction in wasteful consumption of resources such as water.

Altogether water - liquid, solid (ice) and gas on earth (the water planet) - and the atmosphere is estimated to be 336 million cubic meter; and given the population of seven billion people, every person would receive about one trillion gallon each, if divided equally (Professor Karrie Lynn Pennington and Thomas V. Cech). It could, therefore, be no longer a problem.
Although the total volume of groundwater on earth is small, it is 35 times greater than the volume of water in all fresh water lakes and rivers of the world (c.f. Karen Arms).

All rivers are, however, the result of precipitation; be it Amazon, Mississippi, Nile or the Indus. Nevertheless, as emphasised at the Ministerial Conference on Water Security in the Twentieth Century held at The Hague in 2000, there is a water crisis, and it is the bad management of water that has caused billions of people and the environment to suffer alike.

While the countries of former Soviet bloc were considered to be the most polluted ones, water pollution appears now to have spread throughout the world. This has, thus, prompted all stakeholders -the public, NGOs and the civil societies in various countries - to attempt to save water from pollution by garbage, industrial effluents and agricultural runoff.

The public-private partnership in cleaning the Cuyahoga River (the river had become so full of garbage that it caught fire in 1969) in Cleveland, USA, and the management partnership developed by Wagga Wagga City Council and Charles Sturt University in Australia, designated as the Global Water Smart City, is a case in point.

Further, the industry-environment nexus in Holland indicated a strong political will to contain industrial effluents for healthier management of such resources as water.

In 1989, the Dutch Government adopted a National Environmental Policy Plan (NEPP2) called the “Green Plan” to identify all major environmental problems and meet all concerned, i.e. industrialists and citizen, groups to establish the goals and timeframe for reduction in pollution.

In the face of yet greater divide between the developed and developing countries that the Doha Conference witnessed with the withdrawal of Canada from the Kyoto Protocol, the above examples may serve as guidelines for the less developed nations to rely on their own resources to manage their water systems.

The amount of water needed to manufacture a product is termed by economists as “virtual water”. For instance, for one kilogram of coffee, 20,000 litres of virtual water is required; whereas, to produce one kg of paper, one million ton of steel, one megawatt-hour of electricity and a cotton T- shirt, it is 300, 215,000, 2,000 to 5,000 and 7,000 litres respectively. Thus, by getting goods manufactured in less developed countries, the developed countries make big savings in energy and water, in addition to low labour costs.
Drinking water is recognised by World Health Organisation (WHO) as the basic right of human beings. Yet, some global corporations such as Veolia, a $38 billion company in Paris and Big Water that promised more than it could in Bolivia, Argentina, Uruguay, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Africa and other countries; and United Water of USA have taken up marketing of water to serve more than 300 million people in the world at their cost.
The US and some European countries consume more water because firstly, by nature they are gifted with more water per square km of aquifer as compared to the countries that face a great ground water shortage; and secondly, they had the vision to plan and develop reservoirs for the preservation of rain water.

Two striking examples are the building of dams by US President Theodore Roosevelt during 30s-40s the years of dustbowl and great economic depression, and the establishment of Corps of Engineers by President Thomas Jefferson in 1802 to develop a flood control system and build water reservoirs for irrigation and drinking.

While India has already built more than a hundred dams on the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum, it now plans to build additional 30 to 35 large, 135 medium and 3,000 small dams and diversions on these rivers, which would reduce the surface of water flows in Pakistan by around 33 to 35 million acre feet annually.

While Pakistan is already facing an acute shortage of water and energy and if deprived of 34 MAF annually, this would severely destroy its economy.
As the contribution of agriculture to GDP has decreased to less than 20 percent from over 50 percent in 1947, owing to a gross diminution in cultivable land, and/or increased urbanisation and industrialisation, the population of Pakistan has, on the contrary, grown to 180 million from 32.5 million in 1947.

Further, Pakistan has over 60 percent of its land degraded, and from a potential of 42,000MW hydel capacity, it harvests a bare 6,500MW only (Robert Hathaway, Bhumika Muchhala and Michael Kugelman). Indeed, this points to the urgency of building the Kalabagh Dam and a number of small dams (rain water reservoirs) in the country to preserve water for drinking and energy.

The writer is ex-director NIAB, and former professor of environmental science, GCUF.

Email: drahmadsaeedbhatti@gmail.com

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March 13, 2013 . 1

Sindh Tas Water Council’s President Muhammad Suleman Khan not only blamed provinces and centre for delaying expeditious construction of Kalabagh Dam, he filed a petition in the Lahore High Court seeking contempt proceedings against the President and the Prime Minister for paying no heed to the court’s judgement of November 29, 2012 on the matter.

Interestingly, apart from the LHC and renowned scientists and engineers, many of the leaders of the ruling PPP have themselves admitted that the reservoir could turn out to be the country’s lifeline and have extolled its many advantages; the notable one being that of former prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. The recent statement was made by Ahmed Mukhtar who apprised the nation of the enormous economic windfall that could accrue from the project. It is a pity that still Lahore High Court orders for its construction have been ignored. It appears the anti-dam lobby is too strong to oppose calls for rescue of the country from the crippling energy shortage. Those who have been doing politics over the issue have led the country into an era of darkness, water shortage and poverty. But so far as the political side is concerned, now is the time to hold a nationwide debate to work out consensus. People living in the dam site as well as parties that stand fiercely against it should be included in the case. But instead of emotional arguments, precedence should be given to facts and scientific opinion. A certain lobby cannot be given freedom to deprive the country of this vital reservoir.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...onal-necessity

March 20, 2013 .

According to a private Indian TV channel, a resolution declaring that India has the sole right to the use of River Chenab is under preparation and would soon be presented before Lok Sabha for approval. This is a most alarming development, which carries the awesome foreboding of a water war between the two subcontinental nuclear powers. Not only would the resolution constitute a blatant violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), but also a most egregious folly winding up the gains the strenuous efforts have made in improving Pak-India relations. Pakistan has, for some time, been experiencing India’s water terrorism through the construction of dams and water diversion projects in the upper reaches of rivers located in the part of Kashmir illegally occupied by it and assigned to Pakistan under the IWT. As a consequence, vast tracts of fertile land have been rendered barren. Depriving Pakistan further of this life-sustaining element of nature amounts to driving it to the wall, leaving it with little option but to resort to desperation, that could prove disastrous for both the countries.

This proposed attempt at appropriating the Chenab waters should jolt Pakistani leaders out of their belief that India entertains neighbourly feelings for Pakistan, if responded positively and who find nothing wrong in granting it most favoured nation status. The story of composite dialogue and their abject failure in taking up the core issue of Kashmir in a meaningful manner or, for that matter, any other dispute; the response to the numerous confidence building measures we have taken – all this points to India’s recalcitrant posture towards Pakistan. The most significantly, the resolution underlines its arrogance, reflecting a deep-seated desire for hegemony and the belief that the Pakistan of today is not strong enough to effectively challenge it. It should remain under no such illusions; for desperate moments call for desperate measures and bring out the best in man. Before taking any foolhardy step, it should realise that its own interests as well as Pakistan’s lie in peaceful surroundings and nothing should be done to consign the region back to the Middle Ages. At the same time, India’s proposed move should serve as a dire warning to the international community of the dangers of a devastating water war it would entail and impress upon its leadership to see reason.

While India keeps glowering over smaller neighbours there are reports, which highlight its own deep inner malaise. The warning of its Foreign Minister Suleiman Khurshid to the Muslims in India that their religion is under threat at the hands of inimical forces in the country puts paid to its claim of being a secular democracy. It is pertinent to recall here that consistent efforts are made to systematically deprive Muslims of their right to education, health and other basic needs, with the result that, with few exceptions, they have no access to government jobs and experience the pain and shame of a ghetto life. The 20-odd insurgencies, including the freedom struggle in Kashmir, prove the point that India has to change its ways before it faces a veritable upheaval.

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By: Dr Ahmad Saeed Bhatti | March 22, 2013 .


The World Water Day is celebrated on March 22 (today) to mark the implementation of the UN recommendations (Earth Summit Agenda 21) to work out proposals and undertake activities to emphasise reduction in wasteful consumption of resources such as water.

Water is the most important ingredient for food and agriculture, and most basic to human life: one can survive for eight to ten days without food, but without water for not more than two days.

Global warming , nevertheless, is a major water resource issue for many reasons, according to Karrie Lynn Pennington and Thomas V. Cech, co-authors of the book titled “Introduction to Water Resources and Environmental Issues”. It is having a serious impact on the age-old glaciers, permanent snow, sea ice and polar ice caps.

Recently, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), a nonprofit science advocacy group based in the US, drew the attention of the world to a number of extreme weather events that happened around the world recently, including the 2010 floods in Pakistan that killed more than 1,600 people and displaced millions of others, causing losses of Rs 324.5 billion to the national exchequer; the worst drought in Russia, in decades, which triggered wildfires and doubled the death rate in Moscow to about 700; and the torrential rains in China that caused massive flooding and landslides, killing more than 3,000 people. “The devastating heat, fires and floods during summer are consistent with trends that scientists say were caused by global warming,” maintains the UCS members.

According to James Edward Hansen, who heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, a part of the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, the maximum amount of CO2 that the atmosphere can hold is 350 ppm, if we want a planet similar to the one on which civilisation developed and to which life on earth could be adapted. The planet is, however, facing 390 ppm that is increasing beyond the earth’s carrying capacity.

Bill McKibben, author, educator and environmentalist, in his latest book titled “Eaarth”, remembers the earth as free of all environmental problems. He also mentions about the 350 ppm CO2 as the target advocated by most nations at the Copenhagen Conference. The pre-industrial CO2 that was 281 ppm in 2005 is currently 381 ppm, according to Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) in Hawaii, a premier atmospheric research facility.

Many nations agreed to reduce the CO2 emissions to an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. While the emissions in some countries of the east fell by 33 percent due to an economic downturn, they increased by 12 percent to 30 percent in the US and many developing countries.

Needless to say, the importance of land and water resources was also recognised by the early man, who abandoned the hunter-gatherer habit in favour of food production and settlement into communities. That later evolved into cities, states and empires of civilisation, which developed on river banks - many along the Tigris-Euphrates, the Nile, Huang-He and the Indus are well known.

No wonder, the early societies relied primarily on small dams (water storage reservoirs) for irrigation and food production, since the changing weather patterns often gave fewer but irregular natural water flows. Besides the construction of dams, calendars were created by the Mesopotamians to keep track of planting times, rainy seasons and floods (Norman Smith).

In modern times, the number of large dams in the world that was 5,700 in 1950 has grown to 45,000 today - 80 percent of which are in China, Spain, Japan and the US as well as India (Pennington and Cech).

India now plans to build additional 30-35 large and 135 medium dams (in addition to other numerous sites) on the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers. If this happens, it will permanently deprive Pakistan of the surface water flows by at least 33-35 million acre feet annually and add to the people’s misery, i.e. lack of water for drinking, food production and energy.

Against this backdrop, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is on record of having warned that like 2010 and 2011, Pakistan would face another terrible flood in 2012. Regrettably, it happened and it affected nearly 30 million people in Charsadda, Peshawar, Nowshera, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Laiyyah, Khushab, Muzaffarabad, Sargodha and lower Sindh, while the government machinery, both at the federal and provincial level, remained largely ineffective.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Pakistan ranks 12th among the countries most vulnerable to the impact of climate change, and this calls for a strong political will and immediate action plan for its survival.

While the need for the construction of a large reservoir like the Kalabagh Dam has long been felt, the recurrent floods in the country also necessitate a network of small dams to preserve flood and rain water to avert inundation, ensure the availability of water for drinking and agriculture, and meet the acute shortage of energy.

Sine 90 percent of the water is being used for agricultural production in Pakistan, an additional 13 to 14 percent more water would be needed for the production of food for the growing population.

The two striking examples of construction of dams by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt during years of dustbowl and great economic depression (by employing youth), and the founding of the US Corps of Engineers by President Thomas Jefferson in 1802 for the preservation of rain water and flood control project for irrigation and drinking, contain important lessons for us.

Also, Sydney that has one of the biggest water supply system in Australia depends on 11 dams, which can store four times more water than that of New York and nine times that of London. Despite this, the Australians are discontented and believe that the government needs to do more to develop water storage facilities.

Pakistan spends a huge amount to foreign exchange on the import of energy resources. The amount could double by 2030.

Currently, it is barely harvesting 6,500 MW (that is a major bulk of the total generation) out of a hydel capacity of 42,000 MW of its waters, claims Robert M. Hathaway, Bhurnika Muchhala and Michael Kugelman, co-editors of “Fueling the Future: Meeting Pakistan's Energy Needs in the 21st Century”.

While Canada is the largest producer of hydropower in the world, followed by US, the Itaipú Dam (643 feet high) in Brazil and Paraguay is the largest hydropower dam that caters to 25 percent and 78 percent of the power needs of these countries; here, in Pakistan, the much need Kalabagh Dam, unfortunately, seems to be buried once and for all.

The situation is quite grim. The contribution of agriculture to GDP in the country has fallen to less than 20 percent from an over 50 percent in 1947. Over 60 percent of its land has been degraded and 93 percent of its people own barely 12.5 acre of land - with 60 percent possessing less than three acres.

Now that Pakistan’s population has risen to 180 million from 32.5 million in 1947, besides global warming and climate change that are also on the rise, it is high time that the construction of Kalabagh Dam is initiated, in addition to building small dams to preserve rain water, as the shortage of water and energy is growing.

The writer is the ex-director of NIAB and former professor of Environmental Sciences, GCUF. Email: drahmadsaeedbhatti@gmail.com

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March 26, 2013 Solo Khan 3



It was reported by the press on March 4, 2013, that in early February 2013 Dr Nadeem-ul-Haq, Deputy Chairman of Pakistan’s Planning Commission, while chairing a meeting of major donors in Islamabad, has advised them not to dictate Pakistan. He said it was Pakistan’s prerogative to identify and prioritise projects. The donors present, reportedly, included World Bank, ADB and USAID officials. They were, in fact, accused of having an “agenda” under which Diamer-Bhasha Dam (DBD) on the Indus main was not being funded, while the downstream Dasu HEP was being favoured by them. Undoubtedly, Dr Haq’s position is correct.

The DBD is planned as a large reservoir, multi-purpose “mega-dam”, while Dasu HEP is merely a power generation project whose first phase that will generate 1,000 MW is to be funded by the World Bank. The Dasu HEP has provision for future expansion to generate a total of 4,000 MW using additional tunnels. In fact, the absence of DBD reservoir upstream will be a constraint on achieving the desired energy output of Dasu HEP, as it needs the regulation capability of an upstream reservoir to attain its maximum design capacity. These technical details one could discuss separately. But before that let us give credit where it is due. Bravo Dr Haq, the nation can be rightly proud of your position with the donors.

However, it was a pleasant surprise to know that Mr Shakeel Durrani, former WAPDA Chairman, who also attended the February meeting as an Adviser to the Ministry of Water and Power, reportedly, had gone on record with his position that the World Bank under Indian influence did not want any “big project” in Pakistan. He accused it of “sabotaging and wrecking the DBD project.” Nevertheless, he has stated this a little late in the day.

During his tenure (2007-2012), he was an open opponent of the Kalabagh Dam (KBD). This reservoir “mega-dam” project on the Indus main downstream of DBD, Dasu HEP and the existing Tarbela Dam was unanimously proposed by the world’s leading hydrologists and engineers over five decades ago and its design completed in the early 1980s. However, in April 2008, within some six months of Mr Durrani’s chairmanship, the infamous declaration “of an official closure” of the KBD was made by the Minister of Water and Power, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, during a press briefing at the WAPDA House, Lahore.

The Pakistani nation blissfully asleep since some 30 years on the critical issue of the KBD barely noticed and continued its deep slumber. The bureaucracy always happy to import more oil, oblivious of the fact that it is unsustainable for the national economy (and its infrastructure), looked the other way. Obviously, the Indians were jubilant.

Mr Durrani’s lobbying for Diamir-Bhasha dam was always suspect. He is on record having blocked every mega-dam on the Indus main and he succeeded. This was also the position of the President Asif Ali Zardari, who repeated the mantra “build small dams”. But Mr Durrani now has the gall to blame the World Bank and the “Indian influence”.

Returning to Mr Durrani’s tenure as WAPDA Chairman, it was unfortunate that his mission had been chalked out for him. Not once did the nation hear him rebut the Indian position that the northern areas of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB) are historically part of “Greater Kashmir” and hence, the World Bank and other multilaterals may not finance any project there. He now attacks the World Bank.

Every senior hydrologist and civil engineer, who served in WAPDA since its formation in 1958, has supported the KBD project and declared it as a “survival issue” for the national economy. It is, indeed, the point of maximum flow of the Indus main. It is the location from where the poverty-stricken Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province can finally receive Indus waters through gravity flow canals. The Pehur high level non-perennial canal from Tarbela Dam is insignificant. The KPK needs and must receive its share of Indus waters to fight the scourge of poverty and the resultant extremism that has engulfed its brave people. It was re-assuring to hear on December 12, 2012, the venerable Mr Shamsul Mulk, in the presence of two other eminent senior engineers from KPK, Mr Khalid Mohtadullah and Sardar Tariq, restate his position on KBD. It was the third and final meeting of Pakistan Business Council’s “Committee on Water” and the venue was Mr Mulk’s office in Islamabad.

One wonders what happened to COAS General Pervez Musharraf’s clear position on KBD as reaffirmed by him on April 29, 1999, in front of at least 80 of us in a GHQ meeting room. In less than a year after he had become the Chief Executive of Pakistan, the KBD project was again made controversial. In June 2001, the dam received a low ranking in the “Vision 2025” WAPDA report as announced.

Later Senator Nisar Memon’s committee managed to convince President Musharraf that the 260ft high KBD could be built on the 660ft high DBD and a combined height of 920ft at Diamer could be a two-in-one solution. This suited some Sindh lobbyists, who did not want any additional canal withdrawals from the Indus main. Surely, the DBD has now been designed as a very dangerous structure due to its excessive height (and location). A tragic trust deficit in Sindh (against Punjab) has been cynically manoeuvred by the incessant ANP propaganda. Senator Nisar Memon then wanted a “seal of approval” and constituted in 2003 the Technical Committee under Mr A.N.G Abbasi. This was an absolutely unwarranted exercise in view of the existing World Bank financial reports on KBD, including the ISO-14000 compliance certification (1987). The March 1991 Water Apportionment Accord signed by all four Provincial Chief Ministers had later sanctioned the building of several reservoirs on the Indus.

After 2003, the WAPDA management took keen interest in the Neelum-Jhelum HEP (Tunnel project). The flow of the Western rivers are perpetually a Pak endowment and for the “uninterrupted use” of Pakistan. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) 1960 Annexure “D” para 15 (iii) states: “Where a plant is located on a tributary of the Jhelum on which Pakistan has any agricultural use or hydro-electric use, the water released below the plant may be delivered, if necessary, into another tributary, but only to the extent that the then existing agricultural use or hydro-electric use by Pakistan on the former tributary would not be adversely affected.”

From the onset, it is clear that once the intention of using the waters of the Neelum have been shown, the Indians had to stop the Kishenganga HEP as it involves the transfer of Neelum waters to another tributary of the Jhelum inside IHK. Kashmir was always the jugular vein of the Pakistani nation. A false pretext was used to induct two Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs), in spite of the fact that no independent consultant had recommended them due to soil and seismic factors. If there truly was a race between India and Pakistan, the first design option with less than 60 percent total tunnel length should have been chosen. The second design option (969 MW) requires the deepest hydraulic tunnel in the world (under the Jhelum upper limb). The first option could help generate 550 MW at the head of 220 meters and cost about $1 billion in half the construction time. Surprisingly, the contract for the second option was signed for $1.4 billion in 2008 (a clear bluff). Estimates crossed $3.3 billion in 2010 and project estimated to cost $5 billion by 2025 when it can hope to be commissioned. Therefore, for an additional 400 MW, the nation will spend at least $4 billion.

KBD is blocked politically by the ANP, while DBD is blocked financially by a combination of errors at the Kashmir Ministry and a deafening silence of the WAPDA management. The nation bleeds.

The water endowment with a hydel potential of +80,000 MW as well as the irrigation component remain seriously under utilised, and that is a loss of at least $60 billion annually. Instead of WAPDA being the prime mover of the economy, the corrupt rulers forced the nation to depend on imported energy resources from 1994 onwards. Its dreadful consequences are before us. Today, it is furnace oil worth over $15 billion per year for power generation and tomorrow, it will be piped gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG) all for failing to use our own power generation potential.

Let me now reiterate our position of 1994: Pakistan’s economy can never prosper on imported energy. Natural gas imports will be a complicated issue. The “influentials” will keep the bulk of it for the domestic sector to please their constituents. Due to the abject failure of our energy policy, we now must import coal and mix with it the local variety for replacing the furnace oil for power plants. Coal will be a cheaper thermal resource, but there is no comparison to low cost hydropower. WAPDA was tasked repeatedly to ensure +70 percent hydel energy within the energy mix. The thermal sector (public and private) was desired at less than 30 percent in this energy mix. Pakistan can sustainably meet +90 percent of its primary energy needs (presently 70mn tons). With top officials against mega-dams at the instance of anti-dam lobby, the economy reached this terminal stage.

During a visit to India in July 2010 for the “Closed Door Conference on Water”, it was clear how deadly serious the Indians take the business of water in absolute contrast to our attitude. It is a subject strictly controlled by their Foreign Ministry; a strategic subject considered vital by their nation. They have created all the conditions to renegotiate the IWT 1960. The defeat of the Pak cases on Baghliar-I HEP and Kishenganga HEP are actually in absolute contradiction to the tenets of the IWT 1960. Let me add, our nominee was not qualified to represent Pakistan. WAPDA has a major role in the IWT 1960 implementation. The Pakistani Commissioner for Indus Waters had to take the advice of WAPDA in all technical matters. Is it not a calamity that such national issues are handled by unqualified and incompetent individuals?

The adversary has a huge resource base of hydrologists, scientists and engineers with ICIW and ICID. The WAPDA Chairmen and Members during the last 10 years must share major responsibility for these lapses. The fact that India builds +173 HEP projects in IHK (mostly in violation of IWT 1960) and blocks financing of Pak projects in the northern areas/GB province using the World Bank Kashmir Policy was known to WAPDA top managers since many years. In spite of this, there have been two inaugurations of the DBD project in 2006 and 2011. It is a failure of the Federal Ministry and the WAPDA management, compounded doubly by those who duped the nation with false promises.

The writer is a freelance columnist. Email: solokhan48@gmail.com

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...ia-mr-chairman

March 26, 2013 58



There should be little doubt by now that, for all the protests that Islamabad has been making against New Delhi’s water terrorism committed with the aim of depriving Pakistan of its legitimate share of this life-giving nature’s gift to humanity, it is bent upon building projects in the upper reaches of rivers flowing into Pakistan that would turn them dry. Numerous water diversion schemes have either been completed or are being carried out on rivers that have been designated for exclusive use by Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Consequently, once the granary of the entire subcontinent, it would become a barren land, ruining its agriculture, the very base of its economy. Already, their impact is being strongly felt. The Baglihar and Kishanganga projects are two of these big projects.

India's attitude towards us since then is a standing indictment of the partiality of its apologists. And plans like raising hydel power projects like Ratal, Kanai and Mayar are sufficient proof of India’s bad intentions. According to a press report, a meeting of Indus Waters Commissioners of Pakistan and India was held in Lahore on Saturday and Sunday where the Indian representative presented the designs of these three projects for scrutiny by Pakistan. The Pakistan commissioner, however, rejected all of them after thoroughly scrutinising them since they would seriously impinge upon the country’s right to its due share of water, as assigned to it under the IWT. While New Delhi would give the impression that they are run-of-the-river electricity-generating schemes that would not curtail the water flowing downstream, the engineers acquainted with their details would know the exact logic behind their rejection. The report does not enlighten the reader of the reasons for not agreeing to the designs. However, considering the practice India has been following in the past in the case of such hydel projects, the new projects could be another case of creating reservoirs upstream of them to be utilised for irrigation purposes as well. Thus, it is inconceivable that the water flow downstream would not markedly come down.

The point now is that the rejection of these designs ought not to be the end of the exercise. Pakistan must prepare a strong case, built on facts and figures and actively pursue the matter, first with the Indians to have either the designs suitably amended or the projects altogether abandoned. No delaying tactics should be accepted. In case of failure, we should have recourse to the appropriate international forum for redress. At the same time, Pakistan should not waste time and build water reservoir projects like Kalabagh and Diamir-Bhasha and any other, big or small, that could prove feasible, both for the generation of cheap power and for irrigation purposes.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...s-vicious-plan

March 26, 2013 58



There should be little doubt by now that, for all the protests that Islamabad has been making against New Delhi’s water terrorism committed with the aim of depriving Pakistan of its legitimate share of this life-giving nature’s gift to humanity, it is bent upon building projects in the upper reaches of rivers flowing into Pakistan that would turn them dry. Numerous water diversion schemes have either been completed or are being carried out on rivers that have been designated for exclusive use by Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Consequently, once the granary of the entire subcontinent, it would become a barren land, ruining its agriculture, the very base of its economy. Already, their impact is being strongly felt. The Baglihar and Kishanganga projects are two of these big projects.

India's attitude towards us since then is a standing indictment of the partiality of its apologists. And plans like raising hydel power projects like Ratal, Kanai and Mayar are sufficient proof of India’s bad intentions. According to a press report, a meeting of Indus Waters Commissioners of Pakistan and India was held in Lahore on Saturday and Sunday where the Indian representative presented the designs of these three projects for scrutiny by Pakistan. The Pakistan commissioner, however, rejected all of them after thoroughly scrutinising them since they would seriously impinge upon the country’s right to its due share of water, as assigned to it under the IWT. While New Delhi would give the impression that they are run-of-the-river electricity-generating schemes that would not curtail the water flowing downstream, the engineers acquainted with their details would know the exact logic behind their rejection. The report does not enlighten the reader of the reasons for not agreeing to the designs. However, considering the practice India has been following in the past in the case of such hydel projects, the new projects could be another case of creating reservoirs upstream of them to be utilised for irrigation purposes as well. Thus, it is inconceivable that the water flow downstream would not markedly come down.

The point now is that the rejection of these designs ought not to be the end of the exercise. Pakistan must prepare a strong case, built on facts and figures and actively pursue the matter, first with the Indians to have either the designs suitably amended or the projects altogether abandoned. No delaying tactics should be accepted. In case of failure, we should have recourse to the appropriate international forum for redress. At the same time, Pakistan should not waste time and build water reservoir projects like Kalabagh and Diamir-Bhasha and any other, big or small, that could prove feasible, both for the generation of cheap power and for irrigation purposes.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...s-vicious-plan

Shahid Khalil


Since time immemorial, drought has been a feature of the natural variability of our climate. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts are expected to rise in several parts of the world as a result of climate change, with an increasing human and economic toll.

We simply cannot afford to continue in a piecemeal, crisis-driven mode. We have the knowledge and experience to reduce the impact of drought. What we need now is the policy framework and action on the ground. Drought is a menace that is turning vast regions into desert as happened hundreds of years back in Cholistan and Thar.

Over grazing in Cholistan jungle which was subsequently denuded to use wood as kitchen fuel had an adverse impact on the climate of this region. Frequent droughts converted the jungle into a desert. This could have been avoided had the people of this region maintained an environmental balance.

The devastating impact of droughts in Pakistan could be judged by the fact that Cholistan desert was once a prosperous lively and thriving jungle which now is desolate land. Its productivity potential is on decline despite the fact that the number of animals in this desert are on the increase. This sandy desert is situated in the southern part of the Punjab (Pakistan) with highly saline soil and a brackish subsoil aquifer. It supports a human population of 110,000 pastoral nomads depending exclusively upon livestock for their livelihood. Life sustainability in this desert revolves round annual precipitation.
The summer in the desert is extremely harsh and punishing.

Some xeric plant species do survive during severe droughts, but undergo tremendous grazing pressure leading to partial eradication; as a result, the flora and fauna have been thinning out gradually with the increasing severity of desertification.

To address the issue of declining revenues and tighter margins, producers have been looking at various diversification options to help bolster incomes and expand marketing options. One such diversification option for producers is to form community owned cow/calf operations. This can be an attractive option to some producers, since it allows diversification without having to make significant changes or capital investment in their individual operations, but still enables them to diversify and make use of the enterprise through the purchase of shares in the newly formed entity (corporation or co*op).

Under this project, farmers rearing herds of Cholistani cows, a breed of Sahiwal cow which produces above normal quantities of milk and meat, will be provided facilities like better pedigree improvement, balanced feed and disease protection through a comprehensive vaccination and veterinary plan. The Cholistani cow is famous for resisting the harsh climatic conditions of Cholistan. On an average it is capable of producing 1,000 litres of milk per annum and if plans are implemented, this average can be enhanced up to 1,700*1,800 litres per annum. Similarly, 50 per cent of beef produced in the Punjab is from Cholistan and this project will tremendously boost beef and milk production.

Half hearted efforts are not enough. The government needs to take effective and sustained measures by proactive mitigation and planning, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship as key elements of an effective national drought policy; moreover, greater collaboration is needed to enhance the national, regional and global observation networks and information delivery systems to improve public understanding of, and preparedness for, drought.

To provide a safety net for the inhabitant of areas where threat of drought is higher, the state should incorporate comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans.

There should be recognition of a safety net of emergency relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels; Coordination of drought programs and response in an effective, efficient and customer-oriented manner is the need of the hour in drought prone areas.

Droughts cause the deaths and displacement of more people than cyclones, floods and earthquakes combined, making it the world's most destructive natural hazard. Yet while droughts are expected to increase in frequency, area and intensity due to climate change, effective drought management policies are missing in most parts of the world. Three United Nations institutions have now joined forces to promote the development and adoption of practical and proactive policies at the national level to make drought-prone countries more resilient.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and other partners will together to focus on drought preparedness and management policies.

Despite being predictable, drought is the most costly and the deadliest disaster. The decision to mitigate drought is ultimately political. Governments of all drought-prone countries need to adopt, mainstream and formulate practical national drought policies, based on the principles of early warning, preparedness and risk management. The cost of crisis management far exceeds that of risk management, and we should not wait until the next drought, causing famine and claiming human lives.

More extreme and frequent droughts resulting from climate change is having devastating food security impact, especially in the most vulnerable regions of the world says FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva. "To buck this trend, we must build resilient, 'drought-resistant' communities. This means not simply reacting after the rains fail, but investing over the long-term, so that when drought does hit, people and food systems can weather the blow." The country that has been most impacted by drought in recent times is Niger, which has been repeatedly hit by devastating droughts, most recently in 2011-2012.

Since the 1970s, the land area affected by drought has doubled. Women, children and the aged often pay the heaviest price. Most recently, droughts have affected the Horn of Africa and the Sahel region, the USA, Mexico, Northeast Brazil, parts of China and India, Russia and Southeast Europe. The most vulnerable countries are in the world's dry lands; the poorest communities in Africa and parts of western Asia are at particular risk.

The effects can last long after the rains return, with food remaining scarce and expensive and depleted water resources, eroded soils, weakened livestock, and legal and social conflicts lingering for years. Often, droughts are broken by major flood events, so they catch communities when they are most vulnerable, and add to the damages experienced.

Today, 168 countries claim to be affected by desertification, a process of land degradation in the dry lands that affects food production and is exacerbated by drought. At the Rio+20 Sustainable Development Conference held last June in Brazil, world leaders identified desertification, land degradation and drought as global challenges and committed to strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world, in which degradation of new areas is avoided and unavoidable degradation is offset by restoring an equal amount of land in the same time and in the same ecosystem. This is an achievable target. Sustainable land management practices, including restoring degraded lands and improving soil and water management that help to mitigate drought already exist, but need to be supported and scaled up by national policies.

The purpose of the High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policy is to encourage countries to move from crisis management to disaster risk reduction - an approach already successfully embraced for hazards such as tropical cyclones and floods.

http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/women01.htm