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  #21  
Old Sunday, May 06, 2012
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Will China Survive?
May 6, 2012
By Peter Goodchild

Groups larger than that of the band or the small tribe simply do not do as well in providing for the happiness of their individual members. A social group of a million or a billion may have military advantages but is more likely to operate as a tyranny than as a democracy, and China is the obvious case. A Communist dictatorship is, to put it mildly, an anachronism, and keeping the populace in submission to the central government is a struggle that cannot go on forever. The basic problem is that the country is an ecological disaster, and there is little sign of a solution forthcoming. China may have large amounts of cash, but it is nevertheless short of almost everything needed to maintain human life. It may be wondered where its population is planning to live in the future, when China itself cannot hold those numbers.

The Chinese effort at dealing with excess population growth has not been entirely successful. Since 1953, the year of the first proper Chinese census and approximately the start of concerns with excessive fertility, the population has gone from 583 million to over 1.3 billion. For that matter, since the official starting of the one-child campaign in 1979 the population has grown by over 300 million (Riley, 2004, June); in other words, China’s increase is equal to the entire population of the US. By a curious coincidence, Canada and China are very similar geographically, in terms of size, ranges of climate and terrain, amount of arable land, and so on, yet China’s population is 43 times greater.

Because of the global decline in fossil fuels, and the lack of any viable form of “alternative energy” on the necessary scale, as well as a decline in a great many minerals, large numbers of people throughout the world are likely to die of famine over the next few decades, in one way or another. Many of these will not be deaths by famine directly; famine will result in a lowering of the birth rate (Devereux, 2000; Ó Gráda, 2007, March). This will sometimes happen voluntarily, as people realize they lack the resources to raise children, or it will happen involuntarily when famine and general ill health result in infertility. China is already quite familiar with famine. The number of famine deaths during China’s Great Leap Forward (1958-1961) was perhaps 30 million, and the number of lost births was perhaps 33 million. This was the worst famine in human history.

There is a common misconception that if all else fails, China will still have enormous amounts of coal. That is not the case, any more than it is anywhere else in the world. The US has almost 30 percent of the world’s coal reserves, while China has only the third-largest reserves, totaling 14 percent, but China accounts for 43 percent of the world’s production (Höök, Zittel, Schindler, & Aleklett, 2010, June 8). With its enormous growth in consumption, it is unlikely that China’s coal supply will last until 2030 (Heinberg, 2009; 2010, May).

China is also losing water. As is true of many other countries, China is pumping at rates that cannot be maintained. The shallower aquifers could be replenished if pumping were reduced, but the deeper “fossil” aquifers cannot be rejuvenated when their levels are allowed to fall. Among the latter is the deeper aquifer of the North China Plain (Brown, 2008).

Combined with excessive population, the loss of water in China is leading, in turn, to a loss of food. Agriculture uses more than 70 percent of the world’s fresh water and is mainly responsible for the depletion of aquifers (UN Environment Program, 2007). In China, four-fifths of the grain harvest depends on irrigation. The fossil aquifer of the North China Plain maintains half of China’s wheat production and a third of its corn. As a result of the depletion of water, Chinese annual grain production has been in decline since 1998.
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Old Tuesday, May 08, 2012
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Scandal erodes China’s soft power
May 8, 2012
Frank Ching

Buoyed by its massive foreign-exchange reserve, China has spent billions of dollars to boost its soft power.

Direct Chinese television broadcasts and Confucius Institutes around the world are aimed at winning the world’s respect. But a series of political scandals showing a total lack of regard for China’s rule of law have punctured claims about the Chinese system’s superiority. Chinese netizens’ claims that dissident Chen Guangcheng, who had escaped house arrest, was in “the 100 per cent safe place” in China – the US embassy – sum up China’s challenge. In fact, the Chen incident represents a loss of face, reflecting a lack of trust by Chinese citizens in their own government.

As the old saying goes, actions speak louder than words, and actions in China of late have been deafening. A quick survey of world newspaper opinion pages shows the damage to China’s soft power.

In February, Chongqing Vice Mayor Wang Lijun spent a mysterious 30 hours in the US Consulate in Chengdu and subsequently “left of his own volition,” according to the US State Department. Obviously, he thought the US mission was the best place for his personal safety. Now in custody in Beijing, he faces treason charges and, apparently, assists in the investigation of former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai and his wife, Gu Kailai, who is suspected of murdering British businessman Neil Heywood.

The Bo saga dominated headlines for weeks, with salacious details leaked, including massive amounts of money involved and the poison administered to Heywood, who, it’s alleged, wanted a bigger cut for laundering money. Chinese citizens treated the news as unusual only because it was public, which certainly does not boost China’s soft power based on Confucian morality.

Then, just as the Bo saga was beginning to run out of steam, came another sensational development: the escape from house arrest of blind legal-rights activist Chen, who managed to travel from Shandong to Beijing, before finding refuge inside the US Embassy. Chen left the embassy after six days, again of his own free will, according to both the Chinese and US governments. Only a few hours passed before he changed his mind and wanted to leave China with his family. Like China, the United States does not welcome Chinese citizens seeking shelter in its diplomatic missions, whether they’re former police chiefs implicated in human rights abuses or dissidents mistreated by Chinese authorities.

After all, the United States has no means of sheltering dissidents for prolonged periods or spiriting them out of the country. Ongoing events show that the Chinese government’s often belligerent and extra-legal behaviour to a large extent influences how China is perceived by the rest of the world. Such actions have a greater impact on Chinese soft power – or its lack thereof – than programmes beamed by Xinhua or CCTV around the world, at a cost of billions of dollars.

Last October, China’s Communist leadership endorsed a decision to enhance the nation’s soft power. Even before, that, in 2010, China launched 24-hour global English TV news. In February, CCTV America, based in Washington, was launched. In addition, China has set up more than 320 Confucius Institutes around the world to promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, at a cost of roughly $150 million a year as of three years ago.

Ongoing events in China play a much greater role in shaping how people view China than “new perspectives” or “alternative views” presented by spin doctors or professional western journalists on China’s payroll. Countering the Confucius Institutes spreading word about the virtues of family cohesion is the heartrending account of Chen’s family held hostage by the government. In the Chen case, the United States crafted an agreement under which the Chinese government agreed to relocate the dissident and his family to another part of the country where he could enroll in a university to study law. Chen insisted that he wanted to leave the country as soon as possible, and stated he feared for his family’s safety in a phone call to an emergency US congressional hearing on his case.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman announced that Chen could also apply to study abroad. This is unprecedented. If China carries out its part of the bargain, it could mean loosening of the grip that security authorities have had on the country in recent years, ostensibly for maintaining social stability. Little of this is known to the Chinese public because of official censorship. However, while China can gag its own media with directives from the party’s propaganda department, it can do little about news reports from other countries. Despite China spending billions on public relations, editorial comments in the free media reflect what the world thinks of China.

Major western media, of course, have been unstinting. Referring to the fall of Bo Xilai, Businessweek called it “the most serious threat to the authority” of China’s Communist party since the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising.

The Chinese government has insisted that the Bo case – including allegations that his wife committed murder — was no more than a “criminal case.”

Publications, in Asia and elsewhere, though wonder about China’s opaque power struggle, belying the image of a unified China preparing for orderly succession. Japan Times, in an April 30 editorial, commented on reports that Bo had wiretapped telephone conversations of President Hu Jintao and concluded that the former’s downfall “points to a possible power struggle at a time when China is preparing for leadership transition.” Hu, the party leader, is expected to step down later this year as part of a once-in-a-decade changeover.

Still in Asia, the China Post in Taiwan carried an editorial on the Bo case April 15 in which it called for “the institution of a truly independent judiciary that does not bow to the rich and powerful.”

For weeks, Germany’s Der Spiegel has asserted that China’s leaders “have been embroiled in a bitter power struggle that could jeopardize a carefully planned transition in the national leadership.” But because of censorship controls, “many Chinese have become so cynical that they don’t even trust the party media….”

So, while Chinese censorship is successful, it only extends as far as the country’s borders. In other countries, the media is free to draw its own conclusions about China, based on what’s happening on the ground. If Beijing is serious about increasing its soft power, it must first change the way it treats its own people. But that might embolden critics to question one-party rule, which remains non-negotiable.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong–based journalist

© Yale Center for the Study of Globalisation
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Old Tuesday, May 08, 2012
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France opts for Socialism
May 8, 2012
By Saeed Qureshi
Exclusive Article

The victory of a socialist president in France is a momentous event not only for France itself but for Europe as well. The French electorates have rejected economic system spawned by a reckless and non-challant president Nicolas Sarkozy. Francois Hollande is the first Socialist to win the French presidency after 31 years since 1981 when Francois Mitterrand defeated a center right politician, President Giscard d’Estaing, to become the first socialist president of France.

The ousted president Sarkozy, in order to address the economic woes of France, postulated to take a somersault against the doctrine of Laissez Faire to which a capitalist Europe has remained wedded all along after the Second World War. The ousted president whose tenure was marked by perpetual turmoil tried to embrace a capitalist France with “austerity and budget discipline” to resuscitate the fledgling economy.

Sarkozy became very unpopular and controversial for frequently changing the parameters of his plans and projections for the French people. He fashioned himself to be an unpredictable show boy with streaks of sexual perversions and scandalous personal life. His keeping France on a conservative course looked out of sync with the imperatives of changing policies in the interests of his own country.

The Socialist Party’s newly elected president of France, Mr. Hollande aims at growth and prosperity instead of fist-tightening. The French voters rejected Sarkozy for the second term because of his whimsical and lewd character and for vacillation on taking vital decisions at a time when France is slipping down as an economic power. Perhaps the French nation wanted a change of face as well and to remove a president who negotiated “fiscal pact” with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that was not entirely in favor of France.

France desperately needed a new leader because of its economic slide-down during the Sarkozy era. Currently France’s unemployment rate is more than 10%; her public spending is 56% of GDP. France’s public debt will hit 90% of GDP this year. In 2012 the country needs to raise 180bn Euros on the bond markets. Next year it needs 200bn.

President Hollande wants to recall French troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012. He envisages concluding a new contract of Franco-German partnership. In regard to reenergizing the weakening financial system, he backs the creation of a European rating agency and the separation of lending and investment in banks. His future policies also include reducing the share of nuclear power in electricity generation from 75 to 50% and promotion of renewable energy sources.

The phase of Franco-German partnership with France as a subservient and docile partner seems to be coming to an end. One can hope that president Hollande would relax curbs on the immigrants and unlike Sarkozy would allow them to follow their religious and ethnic obligations and rituals freely and without further curbs.

This roller coaster of a mammoth change in Europe has started from France. The next country falling under its wheels would be Germany and the rest would follow. The phenomenal change of praetorians in France is stunning but was not unpredictable. This change would be a harbinger for similar watershed replacements of conservative guards who were either purposely embarking upon a beaten and decadent path or were shortsighted to the extent of not perceiving the pulsating desire of the European nations to move forward from a closed alley.

There has been a stereotype orthodox religio-political system in vogue all over Europe and more noticeably in France and Germany, the two economically and militarily vibrant nations among the European Union comprising 27states. With their hands tied to go solo and independently to make or change their budgets and let the domestic economy take its own natural flow, the economically strident countries looked in sheer impotency and pathetic helplessness. Their ambitions to expand their socio- economic potential remained halted and bridled by a set of rules and constraints written in the collective bond of the Euro countries.

The European Union has remained stuck up in the grooves of mutual pledges and binding covenants to sail and sink together. Barring creation of a unified common currency Euro and lifting of visa restrictions among the member countries, the rest is a tale of debacles and bickering on the part of countries with vibrant economic systems.

After World War II, the West Germany rose on its own ashes and with the help of the United States carved out a new Germany that became the envy of other European nations with a fast track flourishing economy and reconstruction of the destroyed institutions and business enterprises. The modern Germany was looked upon as a model of rapid and dazzling development in all spheres of national reconstruction within two decades after the Second World War.

France that was the first country to bear the brunt of Nazi Germany’s military onslaught and occupation, also embarked upon a path that brought several commendable laurels of success to its linty of spectacular achievements. It distinguished itself as a nuclear power, built up a robust economy, spawned a democratic order and created a splendid social welfare system for its people. The rebuilding of France and Germany in the aftermath of WWII was made possible by the expatriate work force that arrived in West Germany and France in millions.

It should be noted that in West Germany a huge segment of German population was liquidated during the war.. Besides, the colossal fragmentation and disintegration of families was set in motion. During that period, the Germans went into a spell of national despondency and depression. Not only that, but there was a serious and huge dearth of manpower for reconstruction of nation building projects such as highways, bridges, railways, industrial units, educational institutions, hospitals and restoration of ruined infrastructure.

Unfortunately thereafter, the religious and national prejudices were fueled and fanned against the alien settlers by the religious right and ultra conservative rabble rousers. While the Christianity was extolled, there surfaced a pervasive disenchantment for the immigrant workers whose majority came from Turkey, a war time ally of Germany.

Concurrently, Europe that was in the lead with the development of latest technologies for a few decades subsequently found itself in a tough competition from the rest of world where the modern scientific inventions and development of technologies also picked up momentum. China, Japan, Singapore the entire Far East and India from the Central Asia ran neck and neck with the Europe and even the United States.

While United States is blessed with inexhaustible economic and natural resources, vast land, free enterprise and liberty to excel, European countries are smaller in size, meager in resources and bedeviled by a simmering race with each other for economic uplift and prosperity.

With the advent of a socialist party president, France may exercise a great deal of economic freedom within the framework of the European Union. He would want to renegotiate the deal agreed by the 27 countries of the euro zone incorporating strict limits on spending. But in response the female German Chancellor Merkel has categorically stated that it cannot be renegotiated.

One might witness in the coming time, a war of wits between an ultra conservative German chancellor and a newly inducted liberal socialist French president. It might be manifest sooner than later, if they would be able to reach some kind of a quid-pro-quo for a smooth sailing between themselves, to maintain euro’s credibility and save the union from disintegrating. If not European Union might, practically, fritter away.

The writer is a senior journalist and a former diplomat and a regular contributor to pkarticleshub.com
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Old Thursday, May 10, 2012
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The Chinese way
May 9, 2012
Najmuddin A Shaikh

PERHAPS there has been little in recent years in Sino-US relations that has caused as much of an international furore as the case of the blind human rights activist Chen Guangcheng.

This was not a case of a dissident seeking political asylum but of a blind man, a self-taught lawyer, who had won domestic and international renown for his promotion of human rights. He ran afoul of local authorities in Linyi prefecture because of his protests against forced abortions imposed arbitrarily by local authorities to enforce the one-child law. Theoretically free, he was nevertheless being illegally subjected to house arrest and denial of visitors by local authorities in a relatively remote part of China.

Whether this action of the local authorities had the support of the central government and the party leadership is not clear nor does it seem that the protests by Chinese and foreign activists were such as to force the issue to the attention of the party leadership. What is clear, however, is that in his escape from detention he had the support of a large number of Chinese activists and these activists were prepared despite the possibility of reprisals to make their role in the escape publicly known.

In an earlier era, this would not have been done even by the most courageous among them. It is equally clear that the escape was timed to coincide with one of the most important Sino-US meetings. This was a meeting to which both sides attached importance and in which, on the face of it, America was the one seeking Chinese cooperation in economic matters such as the easing of alleged trade restrictions, revaluation of Chinese currency etc. On the political front, it was seeking Chinese cooperation on making the sanctions against Iran more effective, resolving the nuclear problems of the Korean peninsula and using Chinese influence alongside America’s to prevent the Sudanese problem from escalating further.

For the Chinese to suspect that Mr Chen determined the timing in consultation with the Americans would be understandable. In an NYT story that was obviously based on a detailed official briefing the embassy was approached by one of Chen’s friend. The embassy’s assistance was sought for bringing him there so that his badly injured foot could be treated and the embassy could intercede to allow Mr Chen to regain his freedom while staying in China.

The embassy having secured the approval of the visiting State Department legal adviser carried out a James Bond-type operation to evade Chinese security and bundle Chen into an embassy car and bring him into its compound. All this just before the Sino-US talks were to begin.

While this was the main story in the western press, the Chinese did not respond publicly. They did place restrictions on website searches for Chen but otherwise maintained silence while intense negotiations were held with the Americans to have Chen leave the embassy. It was only after Chen’s departure from the embassy had been negotiated and he was placed in a hospital where his wife and son had been brought that the Chinese issued a statement calling on the US to apologise.

Elaborating, the Chinese Foreign Office spokesman said that “It should be pointed out that Chen Guangcheng, a Chinese citizen, was taken by the US side to the US embassy in Beijing via abnormal means, and the Chinese side is strongly dissatisfied with the move…. That “what the US side has done has interfered in the domestic affairs of China, and the Chinese side will never accept it”… and “The US embassy in Beijing has the obligation to observe relevant international laws and Chinese laws, and it should not do anything irrelevant to its function”.

This was an unexceptionable statement of what a host country has the right to expect from another country’s embassy to which it is playing host. The Americans could not even claim that Chen had somehow made his way into the embassy and asked for asylum. They maintained that from the start he said he wanted to stay in China but wanted the Americans to prevent any further prosecution.

The Americans did not apologise. They only said that this was an exceptional case, which they did not expect would be repeated.

Did the Chinese then make this an issue on which the Sino-American talks could have foundered? All reports indicate that this received only perfunctory mention in the high-level talks which by all accounts were concluded in a manner that both sides regarded as satisfactory.

The various agreements that resulted from the talks also showed the depth that the relationship has acquired and the need for both countries to carry these relations forward in a positive manner despite the doubts and misgivings that have consistently plagued the relationship.

Why did China react so mildly to what was clearly a violation of its sovereignty? It has been said, and this has a certain plausibility, that elements in the Chinese leadership were themselves anxious as part of the reform process triggered by the earlier Bo Xilai affair to prevent local authorities riding roughshod over citizens’ rights and that they wanted to use the Chen case as a good starting point to push for such reforms. This, however, is only a partial answer.

China is a powerful country and all indications are that those pushing for reform have found ammunition enough in the Bo Xilai matter to be able to push a reform agenda, which would meet the demands of what is seen to be an increasingly restive population.

The Chinese leadership took the position it did because it believed that even if the Americans acted with malice aforethought the stakes they had in the Sino-US relationship were too high to be put at risk because of this incident. It had the confidence in itself to do this and to start a process of moulding public opinion to accept the rationality of their decision rather than allow nationalist public outrage to determine their reaction.

In the light of what we have been going through in the laboured effort to repair US-Pakistan ties, there is an obvious lesson to be learnt. Let pragmatism rather than emotion govern decisions. Do not just kowtow to hysterical populism but use the considerable resources at the government’s disposal to direct public opinion in a direction that best suits Pakistan’s national interest.

The writer is a former foreign secretary.
-Dawn
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Ripples in China’s placid waters
May 9, 2012
By Tariq Fatemi

China’s placid waters have experienced unusual turbulence over the past weeks, which must be deeply worrying for a leadership that accords the highest priority to order and stability, especially at a time when engaged in ensuring a smooth generational transition.

With both President Hu Jintao — who is also the Party General Secretary — and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, set to retire on completion of their two five-year terms, the Party is finalising major changes. As a part of this process, current Vice-President Xi Jinping — likely to take both the top state and party positions — was put through the paces by being sent on a much-heralded official visit to the United States.

Just when it appeared that the transition was proceeding smoothly, the country was shocked to learn that Bo Xilai, the powerful party boss of Chongqing had been stripped of his post and, along with his wife, detained on a host of serious charges. His wife was also accused of complicity in the murder of a British businessman — a family friend and possible business associate. Children of distinguished Long Marchers, the couple was viewed as highly influential, while Bo’s forceful personality and campaign against corruption had made him a likely candidate for a seat on the Party’s all-powerful nine-member standing committee.

While still recovering from the reverberations of the Bo affair, China was hit by another crisis —this one from a little-known, blind political activist — Chen Guangcheng. His success in gaining refuge in the US Embassy threatened to inject a human rights issue in relations with the US, only days before Secretary Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner were to arrive in Beijing for the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

At one point it was feared that China’s anger at “unacceptable interference by the US” may lead to the Summit being scuttled, but both sides chose to cool the rhetoric, with President Hu Jintao acknowledging that while “it is impossible for China and the US to see eye-to-eye on every issue, both sides must know how to respect each other”. The two sides discussed a host of issues, including North Korea and Iran, as well as economic matters, such as the renmenbi’s exchange rate. Clinton also made a reference to human rights issues, including the Chen case, but chose to tread cautiously lest she damage prospects of Beijing’s cooperation on issues of greater importance to the US. After all, human rights issues, especially when they concern China, have long been a happy hunting ground for US politicians, and Clinton herself had not failed to exploit it in the past. That it came to haunt her during her recent trip to China can only be viewed as poetic justice.

The compromise which envisages Chen leaving for the US on a student visa, along with his wife and children, demonstrates the Communist Party’s ability to overcome major obstacles and impediments — especially over the past 30 years — by adhering to Deng Xiaoping’s wise admonition to “cross the river by feeling the stones”. Nevertheless, the two episodes, though different in nature and content, had the potential of derailing the carefully choreographed leadership transition, while giving rise to a host of questions about the Communist Party’s domestic and foreign policies. While Bo’s downfall revealed major schisms and personality clashes within the inner sanctums of the Party, the Chen affair confirmed the Party’s continuing inability to handle protests by determined political dissidents.

The US would, however, do well not to seek to destabilise China, as cooperative relations between them are essential for global political and economic stability. But China too will have to appreciate that no US Administration can ignore human rights violations, unless they happen in Israel. In fact, both will need to demonstrate patience and skillful diplomacy to ensure that transient issues do not damage their vital relationship.

-The Express Tribune
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Arab-China relationship has slipped to lowest level
May 9, 2012
By Abdulkhaleq Abdulla

An epochal year in contemporary Arab history, 2011 might just as well go down in history as a turning point in Arab-Chinese relationship.

For the past 60 years, China has been considered a reliable friend and a solid supporter of Arab causes. The Arab-China relationship has progressed steadily and China’s ties with the Arab Gulf states have gained momentum lately. There was a great deal of admiration for China as a rising future superpower and an economic role model.

But suddenly there is something unsettling in the Arab-China relationship. China is no longer viewed as positively as in the past. The image of friendly China has tumbled sharply and its reliability as a responsible superpower is in great doubt.

The turning point in the perception of China in the Arab world has to do with three key issues: the way China has reacted to the Arab Spring, which has been mostly negative, its UN Security Council veto on Syria, which came as a complete surprise, and Beijing’s attitude and behaviour towards UN economic sanctions against Iran, which is causing concern among the newly empowered Arab Gulf states.

China is making many Arabs very angry these days. Little wonder that for the first time Chinese flags are burned in Arab capitals and cities, which would have been unthinkable just a year ago. It used to be the American flag that was burned by angry Arabs. Flag burning is purely symbolic but reflects the mood in the more decisive and energetic Arab street.

China should not be surprised that for the first time many bloggers have raised the usual signs of ‘shame on you China’ for standing by a brutal regime in Syria. A shame on you China slogan, which is no longer limited to Syria, was triggered by Beijing’s veto, which is certainly prolonging the Syrian people’s agony.

In addition numerous articles in major Arab newspapers are for the first time including China in the new ‘enemies of the Arab people’ list.

Friends and enemies

To call China an enemy of the Arabs is unprecedented. It is a new low for China and for its image in the Arab world. Before the Arab Spring the enemy list was exclusively preserved for the US and the political West; 2011 has changed all that. There is now a new list of ‘friends and enemies of Arabs’. The US and the EU as opposed to China are considered the new friends of the Arabs.

Another first-timer in the Arab-China relationship is the call to boycott Chinese products and calls to halt investments in China. Once again this is purely a sentimental call, which does not have any practical significance. But it is indicative of the new popular mood towards China in the Arab world. The Arab world is changing rapidly, but regrettably China is on the wrong side of change. It is viewed as a force for the status quo, not a force for change.

Most significant of all, Saudi Arabia is not happy with China these days either. King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz went public in his criticism of China for its shocking veto in the Security Council. For the usually low-profile Saudi Arabia and a country that is looking east to diversify its security and oil profile to go on the record in its criticism of China is a major setback for Beijing. Apparently King Abdullah was frustrated and angry with China to the point of calling China’s veto “unethical”. This is a strong statement coming from the king himself.

These and other first-timers are mere reactions to bad decisions and wrong moves made by China lately. From an Arab perspective China seems to be on the wrong side of history.

In a nutshell, the Arab-China relationship is going through a difficult time. The political leg of the relationship is not at its best. China’s mostly negative reaction to the Arab Spring has made it less appealing.

Before 2011 the Arabs were ready to welcome China as the next superpower that would be a counter-weight to US domination in the region. Many now have second thoughts and are not sure that this China is the superpower China they had in mind.

It is not very palatable to see China hesitate to support the democratic aspirations spreading throughout the Arab world, sitting next to a brutal regime in Syria or turning the other way while Iran develops a nuclear capability. On all these issues China does not come across as a reliable and responsible future superpower.

Yet despite these wrong moves there is no evidence that China’s vast interests are in any imminent danger. The economic leg of the relationship is not affected at this stage. In fact it is flourishing and will keep flourishing. However if China makes more political blunders eventually there might be a price to pay.

Soon enough there would not just be a second thought about China as a strategic partner, it might also jeopardise prospects for future investments in China.

Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is a professor of political science. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Abdulkhaleq_UAE
Source: Gulf News
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China’s success
May 11, 2012
Amin Jan Naim

In just a few recent decades, China has emerged as a dominant economic power in the world. This success is due to the outlook, mentality, pragmatism and adaptability of the Chinese people, bolstered by their magnificent civilisation.

I was posted in China during its historic period 1976-79 when Mao tse-tung was still alive, and when the power struggle began after his death, leading to a new direction for the country. Attempting to learn the spoken Chinese language and getting absorbed in their exquisite culture and literature, I came to admire the Chinese people.

It was a time when China embarked on an ambitious course of “four modernisations” i.e. of agriculture, industry, defence and science and technology. In one of my despatches, I stressed that the new direction “would make China tremendously powerful with a far-reaching impact on world politics and economics.” This has now actually come about.

The means by which the new goals were to be achieved were far different from those stressed by Mao. He had advocated self-reliance and economic independence. In just a few months after his death, China adopted a policy of learning as much as possible from the experience of advanced foreign countries in order to make “foreign things serve China”. The official People’s Daily of November 3, 1978 stated: “Socialist modernisation is achieved by self-reliance.

But this has nothing in common with isolationism, shutting out the world. Neither is it intended to copy or rely on everything foreign. Importing certain techniques and equipment as a supplementary force is in itself an important method to strengthen our power of self-reliance. Of course, we have to pay the price, but we’ll gain more than we lose.”

In 1949 China only had a fragmentary coal industry, a small steel industry, a handful of industries left by the Japanese, and some indigenous ones of old vintage. Economic progress occurred haphazardly in the Mao’s era. The new policy after his death required large scale capital imports, which, in turn, required multi-billion dollar financing.

A trade pact of $20 billion was concluded with Japan. Some enterprising Banks such as S G Warburg, Lloyds plus Roll’s, Banque Bruxelles Lambert, Commerzbank A G and Dresdner negotiated huge financing arrangements for China’s new economic projects, thus displaying much foresight.

More important than financing arrangements was the question of technological absorption. For this, the educational system of the early Communist era became the basis for success. Right from the admirable nurseries for 3-4 year olds (one of which my son joined), to secondary and higher education, a salutary pattern was inculcated.

Gymnastics and sports for small girls as well as boys were promoted. In 1978, the leadership decided to send thousands of students to study in Western countries. Educational and scientific exchanges were stepped up. Large numbers of foreign experts were invited for their knowledge and expertise. Deng Hsiao-ping’s maxim was: it does not matter whether a cat is black or white so long as it catches mice.

Taking a longer term perspective, it can be maintained that, despite his many excesses and purges, Mao uplifted the hundreds of millions of the Chinese people with precepts and practices that enabled both centralism and discipline as well as “personal ease of mind and liveliness”.

In a speech on February 27, 1957 he expounded on the policy “Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend” as a means of promoting the arts and sciences and a flourishing culture. This is described on pages 408 to 414 of volume V of his Selected Works, Foreign Languages Press, Peking, 1977.

The revolutionary fervour of Mao was well counterbalanced by the efficacy and practical genius of Chou En-lai. It was he who built up the whole organisational structure.

No nation can rise and progress without the participation and emancipation of women. Independent China bestowed dignity, self-respect and equality to all women. This is one of the reasons of its success. Relationship between men and women in China is healthy and salutary – very much unlike the despicable one prevailing in Pakistan. The basis for a special place in Chinese society for women is evident in their eternal literary masterpieces such as The Dream of the Red Mansion and the four volume classic Chin P’in Mei (The Golden Lotus).

Another facet worth mentioning is the foray by the Chinese into western classical music. Ancient Chinese classical opera itself is exquisite and grand. Though discouraged during the Mao era, it has been resurrected to China’s credit. But the adoption of western classical music on a large scale in Chinese conservatories has led to the emergence of a huge number of world renowned artists such as the cellist Yo Yo Ma and the pianist Lang Lang. The Chinese mental pattern is particularly conducive to the harmonic structure of western classical music. This is in sharp contrast to the mental pattern of South Asians.

Though spectacular now, China’s progress since 1949 was not even or without turbulence. Yet, the direction set by its leaders and the basis laid down by its luminaries were sound. China’s meteoric rise at present must be attributed to the weltanschauung of its people, their resilience, acumen and down-to-earth outlook.

We in Pakistan can learn a lot from their thought, experience and example. But first we must shed our extremist ideological baggage and strait-jacket.

The writer is a former ambassador.Email: aminjan@comsats.net.pk
-The News
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Nato’s strategic posture
May 13, 2012
By:Arif Ansar

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) was born in 1949 in the aftermath of World War II. Nato’s first Secretary General, Lord Ismay, famously described the organisation’s goal as: “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.” With the end of the Cold War and the Warsaw Pact, the traditional rationale for Nato’s existence vanished, and the organisation searched for a new raison d’etre that could keep it united in the face of new emerging threats.

Nato’s Lisbon meeting, held in November 2010, was only the third such strategic meeting since the end of Cold War. Like Lisbon, the Chicago summit is aimed at setting direction for the next decade and managing the transition and role of Nato in Afghanistan. However, at a broader level, the alliance is dealing with a three-prong threat: a resurgent Russia, extremism and deteriorating relations with the Islamic world, and emerging China.

Meanwhile, the interplay of the political dynamics between European powers such as France, Germany, Russia, and UK have also evolved, with the Scandinavians and Eastern European states becoming strong supporters of Nato’s mission in Iraq and Afghanistan, as compared to France and Germany. Controversy also emerged as a result of France offering to sell arms, including its state-of-the-art amphibious assault ship (Mistral) to the Russians, which NATO feels is contrary to its policy towards Russia.

Furthermore, the tensions between Nato and Russia have fluctuated over the American Missile Defense System meant for Europe. While Nato maintains it’s designed against threats emanating from Iran, Russia believes it’s a hedge against its missiles. The continuation of these frictions has led President Putin not to attend the G-8 session, to be held around the NATO summit in Chicago.

Faced with its own economic difficulties and negative perception in the Islamic world, American dependence on Nato and other regional allies, nonetheless, has increased. For example, in the Middle East, recent events related to Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Iran, have amplified the role of Turkey and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the Arab revolts, Egypt’s fate hangs in the balance. The country has been forewarned that if it renegades on its treaties with Israel, it faces suspension of American military aid. Pakistan awaits a similar fate for suspending Nato’s Afghan supply routes. In the Asia Pacific, the US is building partnerships with Indonesia and Malaysia. On the other hand, frustrated by Pakistan’s role, the shift is towards India and Bangladesh in South Asia.

While Turkey, a Nato member, has taken on an assertive role as it relates to the situation in Syria, and previously in Libya, its demand for an Israeli apology over the flotilla incident has complicated affairs with the alliance. Moreover, the incident gave a boost to the credibility of Turkey in the Islamic world at the expense of Sunni Arabs and Shiite Iran.

According to Turkish media sources, the country is preventing Israel from attending the Nato summit in Chicago, despite pressure from US and other European powers. “There will be no Israeli presence at the Nato meeting unless they issue a formal apology and pay compensation for the Turkish citizens their commandos killed in international waters,” a senior Turkish official has commented referring to Mavi Marmara incident.

Additionally, Turkey has vetoed Israeli attempts to deepen its relations with Nato or to open an office in Brussels. Turkey’s foreign minister has stated, “The army of a country which you call a partner killed our citizens upon a political order given by its administration. We do not call this kind of country a partner.”

The Turkish position on Israel is similar to Pakistan, albeit less vocal, as it relates to the apology it has demanded of US for the Salala incident. Assessing from the media reports, it’s not clear if Nato did not invite Pakistan for suspending Nato supply lines, or if the country declined to attend the summit in the absence of an apology.

In the future, Nato’s strategy in the Islamic world is likely to be two-prong: first to prevent any coalition to develop along religious lines that is detrimental to its interests, and secondly, to escalate issues that hamper ties between emerging powers and Islamic nations. For example, in 2010, trade relations between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey showed signs of gradual progress. However, western focus and sanctions on Iran’s nuclear programme has prevented any such regional economic cooperation to flourish.

While the danger from extremists is still real, economic challenges are forcing European members to search for more than just military means to tackle it. However, it is China that has the potential for becoming the real motivating force for the alliance. The mounting prominence of India in Nato’s realignment further justifies this estimate. For dealing with China’s rise, Nato would eventually want Russia on its side while preventing any partnership to develop between China and the Islamic nations. The focus of the Chicago summit may be on the transition in Afghanistan. However, it is this premise that will define Nato’s future posture in the region.

The writer is the chief analyst for PoliTact (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at aansar@politact.com
-Pakistan Today
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The Peak Oil Crisis: Perspective
May 13, 2012
By Tom Whipple

While waiting to see how the Iranian nuclear confrontation and the various Eurozone crises sort themselves out, there is time to step back and look at the interaction of the major forces that will shape our future. While the problems of oil depletion are already upon us, shrinking resources are only a part of global dynamics currently.

There are at least six major forces moving civilization in the world today: 1) population growth: 2) economic growth; 3) political stability; 4) technological innovation; and more recently 5) resource depletion and 6.) climate change. There are, of course, other less obvious change-producing forces at work in the world – theology, geology, and culture to name a few–but these six look like a good place to start thinking about the interaction of change. Our six forces are intertwined so that significant movement in one will eventually result in feedbacks affecting some or all of the others.

In the last 200 years a combination of better health technology and services, more productive agriculture, and improved transportation has allowed the world population to grow seven-fold. Although in some areas societal and even political measures are keeping population growth in check, as a whole the world’s population is on course to increase markedly before the century is out. In a finite world this has, and will continue to have, serious implications for our other major engines of change. First is simply the need to grow and distribute food for the 78 million people that we are adding to our population each year. If one includes clothing, shelter, education, medical care, and a better-than-subsistence life style for the new arrivals, you can see that that the global economy needs to do some growing or at least rearrange the way resources are distributed.

This steadily growing population will add to resource depletion – fossil fuels, vegetation, and minerals — for at a minimum all those additional people must eat and drink. If they are going to eat warm food or stay warm in the colder climates, they are likely to be adding to the atmosphere’s growing concentration of greenhouse gases and the pace of global warming. The search for a better life is already resulting in mass migrations from poorer to richer regions which in turn is already contributing to political volatility.

Then we have the rapid economic growth of the last 250 years based on the exploitation of numerous technological discoveries coupled with the fossil fuels that supplied the excess energy for the increasingly complex societies and interdependent societies that most of us live in today. Today anything less than steady economic growth creates political problems – sometimes serious ones, for most peoples now look to their government to create the environment that will provide jobs and an adequate standard of living for all. Anything less eventually feeds back into social discontent – ranging from election upsets to bloody revolts as we have seen recently across the Middle East.

Although technological improvements have been changing civilization for untold millennia – stone tools, fire, wheels, gun powder, etc. – it is only in the last 250 years that science and technology came into its own allowing for rapid changes that we like to think of as “progress.” This, of course led to population growth, more economic activity, and increasing complex political organization. In turn, this led to rapid depletion of the resources – fossil fuels, water, agricultural land, minerals, etc. – that are now on the verge of becoming a limiting factor for further economic growth. We are now coming to the realization that without increasing supplies of energy, and other raw materials, more economic growth will be impossible, which in turn will feed back into more political instability, more migration, and if we can’t get the food supply right, a decline in global population.

Another important corollary to economic growth has been the over-loading of the earth’s atmosphere with the combustion products of fossil fuels used for energy. It now seems that the global climate is becoming unstable at a rapid pace. Here the feedback is likely to come in the form of lower agricultural production as a combination of droughts, high temperatures, and floods take a higher-than-normal toll on crops and livestock.

This will eventually result in increased hunger, malnutrition and higher death rates. Somewhere along the line the effects of climate change may become so bad that a consensus will develop that the burning of fossil fuels must be sharply curtailed or the economic costs of rising temperatures become too much to bear or as some believe do us all in.

Interspersed with all the causes and effects that are driving our earth is the question of timing. While climate change may eventually be far more serious than any economic downturn or political discontent, it seems to move so slowly that so some believe we will be over the tipping point of no return before serious change is wrought by political agreement. The same seems to be true of resource depletion. In short we seem to be caught between the “could be extremely important” (climate change) and the obviously urgent (jobs).

Is there a way out of all this, or are we doomed to an unknown period of troubles of unforeseeable duration, with falling standards of living and interminable social upheavals? For now, much of the world seems fixated with using various financial tools – taxes, interest rates, money supplies – as solutions to perceived problems without much appreciation that energy supplies simply are becoming too expensive to use in the accustomed manner or that the atmosphere is becoming so unstable that our global food supply is endangered.

There are of course solutions. We know how to cut populations humanely and drastically, through limiting births, but this would require a far greater global social cohesiveness that we have presently. There may be something in the next few decades of technological developments – cheap, clean energy or even mining asteroids. For now there seems to be so little understanding of where we are likely to go that we can only wait for things to get worse.

Tom Whipple is a retired government analyst and has been following the peak oil issue for several years.

Source: Falls Church News-Press
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US-China’s tussle for power
May 16, 2012
S P Seth

The recent China visit of the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner, was overshadowed by the furore caused following the escape to the US embassy in Beijing of the blind Chinese human rights activist, Chen Guangcheng, to seek asylum. Chen has been a prickly thorn in the government’s side, having internationally embarrassed China by exposing cases of forced abortions and sterilisation in the rural areas as part of China’s one-child policy. After serving a four-year prison term on charges of ‘sedition’, he was under house arrest when he made a risky escape for asylum to the US embassy. Not surprisingly, it caused a crisis of sorts in US-China relations, with Clinton and Geithner right in the middle of it during their visit.

This only shows the fragility of US-China relations, with Beijing accusing the US of interfering in its internal affairs. However, according to some recent reports, this latest conundrum might be managed, with the Chinese government allowing Chen to go to the US for studies with his wife and two children. It might be a convenient end to a difficult diplomatic crisis, but it would be highly embarrassing for China to allow this, being tantamount to admitting that Chen’s earlier imprisonment on sedition charges was a political act.

Even though Beijing is averse to admitting that it has a human rights problem, it does at times say that its human rights situation is improving, which, by implication, means that there has been a problem in this area. The US obviously pushes this button to promote democracy in China, with tolerance for dissent and freedom. With its economic success, China, however, has increasingly taken a more assertive position, even promoting its path as an alternative model for the world. As the US and China increasingly take opposite positions on a whole host of issues, their disagreement is likely to become shriller, with less scope for peaceful management of their relations.

If diplomacy is the art of managing relations between nations, both the US and China will need to work harder. With both keen to assert their primacy in the Asia-Pacific region, the scope for managing their ambitions is likely to become tougher. China has sovereignty claims on the South China Sea; it contests maritime boundaries with Japan in the East China Sea, and is having problems with Vietnam, the Philippines and other regional countries over their competing claims in the South China Sea island chains. This has led to naval incidents between China and some of its Asian neighbours.

Presently, the relations between China and the Philippines are quite tense over the disputed Scarborough shoal — a chain of reefs and uninhabited islands in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is rich in oil, gas and fish. A Le Monde report has quoted a Chinese study, which says that the area could contain the equivalent of 213 billion barrels of oil — 80 percent of Saudi Arabia’s established reserves. No wonder there are a number of claimants to such potential wealth. China and the Philippines have done some show of military muscle, and public opinion in the Philippines is quite exercised over China’s blanket sovereignty claim. And it is a US ally.

Although the US is ostensibly not taking sides on these issues, it has further strengthened its strategic ties with the Philippines, Vietnam and other regional countries. Now that the US is disengaging from Afghanistan, it has signalled its intention to become more focused on the Asia-Pacific region, which has not gone down well with China.

Apart from its problematic relations with some of its regional neighbours, China is lately having more than its usual internal tensions; the most recent being the Chen affair. Chen was helped in his escape to the US embassy by some of his activist friends who are now in trouble with the authorities. The sensitivity of the internal situation was graphically demonstrated following the Arab Spring when the Chinese authorities blocked access on the internet to material regarding the popular upsurge in Tunisia and Egypt, fearing a contagion effect in China.

Recently, there was the Bo Xilai affair, when the Chongqing Party boss was removed from all his posts and his wife arrested on a charge of suspected murder of a British resident of that city. Bo was starting to threaten the party hierarchy by raising the banner of the revolutionary spirit of the Mao Zedong era. And the embers of the fire lit by Bo are not completely extinguished.

It is such sensitivity and resistance to political reform by relaxing the party’s monopoly over power that gives the US a certain moral and political advantage over China. But this only makes China even more resolute on maintaining and asserting the party’s control within the country. The party leadership fears that the US is using democracy and human rights as an attempt to foment internal trouble in their country to the point of destabilising China. This is another problematic issue in the China-US relationship, among a number of other issues clouding their relationship.

The core issue is the contest for primacy in the Asia-Pacific region between the US and China. Until now, the US has ruled the waves in Asia-Pacific, as in much of the rest of the world. Militarily, the US is still the most powerful country in the world. In the Asia-Pacific region though, China is seeking to displace it through a mix of its economic, political and military muscle. Indeed, China believes it is none of the US’s business to be poking around in its neighbourhood where, in Beijing’s view, China’s primacy, historically and geo-strategically, is well enshrined. Indeed, from this viewpoint, China’s loss of regional primacy during the last over 150 years was simply an aberration. Therefore, a new and stronger China feels justified to reclaim its old domain, so to say, and that would explain their sovereignty claims over the South China Sea and parts of the East China Sea and other bits.

In a world of nation states, historical claims of dominance by old or new empires are more an obstacle than a solution of contentious issues. This brings China into conflict with some of its regional neighbours, and with the US as the established dominant power as well as an ally of some of China’s Asian neighbours. One way out of this complex web of relations between China and the US might be to work out some sort of a mechanism to share power over the head of regional countries. However, there are problems here because the regional countries might not like the idea of being a pawn in US-China relations. These countries are not inconsequential, like Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and so on, not to speak of Japan. They can forge their own alliances/partnerships to sabotage such plans, if they were ever contemplated.

In any case, China or, for that matter, the US does not look like sharing power except on its own terms, which essentially would mean that China or the US will have to make way for the other. China, as the rising power, would certainly not like to give ground on any of its ‘core’ strategic interests. The US, on the other hand, wants China to be a responsible stakeholder, which essentially means that Beijing should not rock the boat. These are irreconcilable positions, and spell trouble for the region.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at sushilpseth@yahoo.co.au
-Daily Times
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