CSS Forums Tuesday, October 21, 2014
07:09 AM (GMT +5)
 
 
Home   Beginner's Guide   Rules   Syllabus   Past Papers   CSP Members  

Go Back   CSS Forums > General > News & Articles

News & Articles Here you can share News and Articles that you consider important for the exam

Reply Share Thread: Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook     Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter     Submit Thread to Google+ Google+    
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
Old Friday, November 22, 2013
HASEEB ANSARI's Avatar
Senior Member
Medal of Appreciation: Awarded to appreciate member's contribution on forum. (Acedemic and professional achievements do not make you eligible for this medal) - Issue reason:
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Pakistan
Posts: 2,943
Thanks: 92
Thanked 1,310 Times in 850 Posts
HASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really nice
Default Afghanistan beyond 2014 — I

Afghanistan beyond 2014 — I
By Humayun Shafi


The Taliban will, however, certainly be in a position to challenge the writ of the government and cause a smouldering civil war. This in itself is disturbing, as such situations last for a long period of time, bringing economic downturns and anguish for the people.

The news out of Afghanistan is of concern to us in Pakistan. The events that are unfolding point to some major changes that will have an impact on the security situation in the region. US and NATO allies plan to withdraw the majority of their forces by December 2014. The residual force will consist of 10,000 US troops, including an independent special operations force, while NATO will continue to train the Afghan national security forces. So far, a military solution has failed to curb the insurgency and peace has remained elusive. Each passing day has seen a worsening of the situation.

By December 2001, it was thought that the Taliban, which had formed the government of the ‘Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan’ since 1996, had been effectively uprooted without having any further chance of returning to rule Afghanistan. The UN-sponsored Bonn Conference in December 2001, also known as the Bonn Process, to decide the future of Afghanistan, did not have present any representative of the Taliban. It established an interim Afghan authority, headed by Hamid Karzai. Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN representative who presided over the conference, later recalled the conference in the Washington Post in 2008 when he stated, “The deal was reached hastily, by people who did not adequately represent the key constituencies in Afghanistan and it ignored the core political issues. As I said publicly, then, any progress remains untenable.” The impression of haste and exigency rather than of a well thought long-term strategy was to prevail throughout the war years. Author and journalist Robert Fisk, in September 2001, viewed the proposed attack on Afghanistan by the US as “walking into a trap”. Elsewhere, Operation Enduring Freedom, which commenced in October 2001, brought an appreciation for the US initiatives.

Lakhdar Brahimi, describing the situation of 2008, also stated that in “the face of lawlessness, corruption and level of bombing, Afghan hopes have given way to despair,” adding that insurgents control one third of the country. During the same time, President Obama wanted to bring US troops home. How was it possible to leave Afghanistan with an ever-increasing level of insurgency? The Afghan national security forces were not trained enough. Placing extra US troops would manifest itself to the Taliban as a winning resolve with the purpose of bringing the Taliban towards peace talks. President Obama announced the surge of 30,000 troops on December 1, 2009, a significant date considering he was to deliver his acceptance speech in Oslo for the Nobel Peace Prize on Dec 10, 2009. He had to justify the announcement of the surge in this speech.

The surge was the last effort by the US to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Tragically for the US, this just resulted in mounting US casualties. All the Taliban had to do now was wait in the shadows until the US and its allies leave Afghanistan, which will happen in December 2014. The aspiration of the Taliban beyond 2014 will be to again occupy Kabul and form a government in Afghanistan, a repeat of 1996. This appears to be a rather farfetched idea. The third election for the president will be held in April 2014 and again a democratically elected president will be installed. It is difficult to topple a democratically elected government without inviting adverse global reaction. The Taliban know from experience between 1996 and 2001 that a government cannot survive in isolation with economic and political sanctions. The Taliban will, however, certainly be in a position to challenge the writ of the government and cause a smouldering civil war. This in itself is disturbing, as such situations last for a long period of time, bringing economic downturns and anguish for the people. A viable option for peace is to hold fair elections in Afghanistan in April 2014, which appear highly unlikely given that the last two elections were marred by rigging, and ethnic minorities like the Tajiks were not given a fair chance to participate.

In September 2008, peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government were conducted in Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah hosted an iftar (opening of the fast) for the negotiating teams. Moreover, this time, the Taliban had agreed to talk to President Karzai, who belonged to the Afghan National Front. Again, in 2010, Saudi Arabia offered the US a chance to negotiate but received no response. Peace negotiations received a setback when Chief of the High Peace Council Burhanuddin Rabbani was assassinated in September 2010. The peace talks in Doha had to be terminated in June 2013; the Taliban insisted on using the words ‘Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan’ and upon flying the white flag, which was used by the Taliban government during 1996 to 2001. These talks were limited to formal greetings and remained inconclusive.

(To be continued)


The writer can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-11-2013_pg3_6
__________________
"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old Saturday, November 23, 2013
HASEEB ANSARI's Avatar
Senior Member
Medal of Appreciation: Awarded to appreciate member's contribution on forum. (Acedemic and professional achievements do not make you eligible for this medal) - Issue reason:
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Pakistan
Posts: 2,943
Thanks: 92
Thanked 1,310 Times in 850 Posts
HASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really niceHASEEB ANSARI is just really nice
Default

Afghanistan beyond 2014 — II
By Humayun Shafi

Norway has already reduced aid, citing the failure of the Afghan government to adequately respond to violence against women and corruption within the government.

A recently released UN report warns of the adverse effects of the opium trade in Afghanistan. It projects that the drug trade will increase while the ‘legal’ economy will shrink in 2014 in view of the reduction in aid. Poppy cultivation in 2013 is 36 percent higher than in the previous year. According to the report, there is a strong link between insecurity and increased poppy cultivation. Yuri Fedotov, the UN executive director, has warned, “As we approach 2014 and the withdrawal of international forces from the country, the results of the Afghanistan Opium Survey 2013 should be taken for what they are: a warning and an urgent call for action.” If the problem is not taken seriously, the ‘virus’ of opium could further reduce Afghanistan’s stability with the profits from this illicit economy further destabilising the country.

The Afghan economy is weak and is surviving on international aid. Once the presence of the allied forces is reduced, the economy will face a setback due to the loss of many thousands of civilian jobs. A recent World Bank report estimated that the rate of growth of the Afghan economy will drop to 3.5 percent in 2014, down from 14 percent in 2012 — a reduction of 10.5 percent in the growth rate. In another report in the Financial Times, annual aid of $ 15 billion, a figure roughly equivalent to its GDP, is likely to be reduced significantly in 2014 due to the failure of the Afghan government to check corruption. Norway has already reduced aid, citing the failure of the Afghan government to adequately respond to violence against women and corruption within the government. Throughout the war years, the road network has remained neglected as most of rural Afghanistan is in the hands of the insurgents.

A deteriorating economy and an unresolved insurgency are major issues with no apparent solution in sight. Peace within Afghanistan and this region, including Pakistan, will depend upon an improvement in the Afghan economy and its security situation. Alternatively, the insurgency will continue to grow due to poverty, unemployment and a security apparatus starved of resources. The US and NATO forces will leave Afghanistan without having created conditions where the Afghan government can provide adequate security or a stable economy. With the exit of the Soviet forces in 1989, Afghanistan descended into civil war. There is a fair possibility that the same future awaits the impoverished nation.

The US has handed over almost all operational responsibilities to the 200,000 strong Afghan National Army. These forces lack motivation and discipline while being beset by corruption and ethnic divisions. To compound the issue further, the desertion rate stands at 10 percent annually and many militants have entered its ranks, leading to a string of insider attacks. The Afghan National Army does not have the training and experience to be qualified as a disciplined professional army, and certainly does not have the capacity to fight a widespread insurgency.

The Afghan people are facing a difficult situation; there is a faltering and far off cry for peace. The government has problems arising out of a long period of wars spreading over 35 years. The writ of the government is limited only to cities and a few strategic routes. As summed up by Ahmed Rashid, writing in 2006, “The situation in Afghanistan is not just dire, it is desperate. The struggle against Islamic extremism will be lost not in Iraq, Iran or even the Palestine territories, but in Afghanistan. It is here that al Qaeda wants to regroup and rearm itself to continue its global jihad and it is here that NATO countries are failing the world.” The Afghan national security forces do not have the capacity to counter a well-organised insurgency. Indications are that peace will remain as elusive as ever. The US and its allies want to return home and would like to concentrate upon building their own economies, becoming more inward looking and finding ways to forget the Afghan war, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, dead and wounded, and millions more becoming refugees. Tragedy will again be faced by the Afghans who, in spite of such colossal human losses, will continue to suffer for many more years to come.

(Concluded)

The writer can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com
__________________
"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ecnomic progress Vs Political situation very special 1 Discussion 48 Wednesday, February 29, 2012 09:27 PM
Reconstruction of Afghanistan – Role of UNO Mao Zedong International Relations 0 Thursday, October 28, 2010 11:51 AM
India–afghanistan Relations: Post-9/11 Muskan Ghuman Current Affairs Notes 0 Thursday, November 08, 2007 04:11 PM


CSS Forum on Facebook Follow CSS Forum on Twitter

Disclaimer: This is not the official website of Federal Public Service Commission Pakistan. This is a non-commercial website helping individuals who intend to join civil service of Pakistan. The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only. We do not claim that the site is an exhaustive compilation of information about Civil Service of Pakistan neither represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, content contained on, or linked, downloaded or accessed from any page of this website. These materials are intended, but not promised or guaranteed to be current, complete or up to date. However, honest efforts have been made to provide comprehensive information for the benefit of users. The documents and material displayed or mentioned on this site are not official copies. Please contact FPSC for updated rules and regulations governing CSS examination.

Sponsors: ArgusVision   vBulletin, Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.