Another round of Talks between Iran and US

gulmac · #1 Wednesday, June 04, 2014

The United States and Iran at least agreed on negotiations on a long-term nuclear deal. Reaching an agreement will be very complicated, if not impossible for both the parties. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared again that talks between Tehran and six world powers “will not lead anywhere”. He also made it clear that Tehran is committed to continuing the negotiations between Iran and Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. There is no doubt in it that this deal will be complicated, difficult and lengthy process and even it seems difficult for both the parties to reach consensus.

The goal of the talks for the United States and its European allies is to extend the “breakout time” that Iran would need to produce enough fissile material for a bomb. For that goal to be achieved, experts and diplomats say, Iran would have to restrict enriching uranium to a low fissile concentration, stop most of its centrifuges now used for such work, limit nuclear research, and submit to highly intrusive monitoring by U.N. inspectors. Khamenei and other Iranian officials have repeatedly made clear that such reductions of its nuclear capacities would be unacceptable.

Iran’s work on its nuclear capability perhaps is on the stage where it is difficult for Tehran to agree for dismantling it completely. Iran may keep a limited enrichment capacity. West will try to seek guarantees not to even attempt to build a nuclear bomb. If Iran will pursue making of bomb again, possibly west will stop it with military action.

Since both the sides signed an interim agreement, Iran freezes work on the process of enrichment. While final bargaining is in progress, there has been a war of words over what the deal will mean for Iran’s luminous nuclear infrastructure. But Iran still has reservation on part of sending its 10,000 operating centrifuges to another country for safekeeping.

Perhaps it will also be difficult for the ordinary Iranian to support the deal, which obliges to dismantle its nuclear program —which they consider as a sign of dignity—. West is just trying to make such a deal which will be convincing for ordinary Iranian as well, whereas many Iranians considering nuclear program as ultimate symbol of Persian accomplishment.

Both the sides have sharp disparity over the future of two nuclear plants: the deeply buried uranium enrichment plant at Fordow and a half-built heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak, on which Iranian stance is that it will use for generation of isotopes for medical treatments.

The West has uncertainties regarding Iran’s ambition with the Arak plant, which west considered that it is to open an entire separate path for a bomb, by using plutonium as a fuel. West is anxious about Arak because this plant used heavy water for the processing , and large amounts of weapons-grade plutonium could be extracted from an accompanying reprocessing plant. Issue just arises here is that US and west are continually insisting to stop operation Fordow and stop working on Arak plants. Western countries are in view that these sites have a capability to achieve a “breakout,” or to make a bomb before the Western bombers could destroy these nuclear complexes. Possibly Iran can make a compromise if west will give an there is also an option to replace a light water nuclear reactor with heavy water, or limit the power capacity of the plant. Regarding rest of sites, US is in view that Iran can keep all the equipment it would need for a civil, or non-military program and can even enrich uranium less than 20%.

On other issues, though, it may be impossible to find middle ground. The West wants sanctions relief to remain limited and easily reversible in the early years of the deal, to make sure Iran doesn’t start breaking the rules. The Iranians say they can’t accept that, because without large-scale and permanent sanctions relief they can’t entice foreign business to help revive Iran’s ailing economy — which they consider the whole aim of the deal.

In congress there are still strongholds of anti Iran sentiment. Possibly there will be long discussion on the permanent timeframe of the discussion. There are also chances that this discussion could lead to a conflict among the congress members. US would like this deal almost for 20 years because they consider present government a moderate government. They will try to take maximum advantage of this. On other hand Iranians will try to minimize time limit. Longer-range pact is unacceptable to Iranians for reasons of pride: They insist on being treated like a normal country, not an international recluse. Iran would like to stick to the deal range from three- to five-years. The deal will show that if Iran takes “concrete actions … people’s aspirations to be a proud, responsible nation with a seat at the table can be fulfilled.”
West is eager to make Iranians consider themselves on a wining mode after a deal, are dangling the idea that it could help the isolated country regain a respected place among great powers — an idea that may unsettle Iran’s rivals in Israel and Saudi Arabia.

If these negotiations get successful, this could help put an end to years of hostility between Iran and the West, ease the danger of a new war in the Middle East, and open up vast new possibilities for Western businesses. Khamenei’s decision to pursue negotiations with the six powers in spite of the skepticism he shares with his hard-line supporters, diplomats is yet to discover its due fate. The talks would take time. There are voices in Washington regarding the late July deadline of November agreement can be extended for another half year by mutual consent. At the movement an atmosphere of high anticipation surrounds the talks, which are expected to continue.

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