One in your eye

May 25th 2007
From Economist.com
Why North Korea has fired off several short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan


TRUST North Korea, even as relations appear to be getting a little better with the outside world, suddenly to spit in your eye. On Friday May 25th Japanese television and other regional news sources reported that the hermit kingdom had launched several short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan. South Korea’s spy agency confirmed the “drill”, suggesting the weapons were surface-to-ship types. It appears that they were launched from both the east and west coasts of North Korea.

The action, at the least, was extremely tactless, but it could have been worse. Although surprising it was reportedly part of an annual exercise. And testing long-range missiles that could reach Japan, as has been done before, would have been more provocative. Last July North Korea launched both long- and short-range missiles. As with previous stunts orchestrated by North Korea's isolated leadership—including the big one of testing a nuclear device last year—the desire may have been designed, in large part, to get attention from the outside world. Another theory is that Pyongyang was annoyed after South Korea launched a new destroyer.


But the timing of this year’s launches is awkward. Earlier on the same day America’s envoy to North Korea, Chrisopher Hill, had expressed optimism that international efforts to persude Pyongyang to give up its nuclear programme would soon produce results. Six-party talks involving North and South Korea, Japan, Russia, America and China produced a deal in February that would see North Korea beginning to close down its nuclear-weapons programme in exchange for energy and other aid. By now North Korea should have shut its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, but it has failed to do so because of a row over the failure by a bank in Macau to release $25m of funds claimed by the northerners.

The consequences of Friday’s tests depend, largely, on the reactions of the other countries in the six-party talks. North Korea may have hoped for Japan to respond aggressively—the country is generally the most outspoken in criticism of North Korea’s military activities and is riled, additionally, by North Korea’s abduction of Japanese citizens over the years—but to be left on a limb by its allies. In fact Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, immediately downplayed the significance of the missile launches, saying he did not consider them to be a grave security concern for his country.

In America the latest military activity may also put pressure on Mr Hill and on the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, who have led the new dialogue with North Korea, offering rewards for nuclear compliance. America’s previous stance of uncompromising hostility towards one of the three countries described by George Bush as an “axis of evil” led nowhere. But Ms Rice is under pressure from sceptics in the administration for being too soft on North Korea. Depsite the success of a provisional deal in February, if North Korea fails to deliver on promises made about closing down its nuclear plants and if it continues to launch missiles, hopes for progress may look as dismal as they did a year ago.