Charm offensive

Six months into his tenure, Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani’s recent visit to the US can accurately be billed as a successful charm offensive — not least in that he has won pledges of continued American military assistance. He fruitfully articulated his administration’s case for continued US military presence in Afghanistan; President Obama agreed to slow down his troop withdrawal plans and keep 9,800 soldiers in the country through the end of the current year.

Much to Kabul’s gratification, the flexibility in America’s withdrawal strategy comes as the Taliban are flexing their muscles for the spring fighting and disconcerting reports are surfacing regarding the recruitment of fighters by the self-styled Islamic State (IS) in several Afghanistan provinces. Some disgruntled Taliban commanders have either already pledged allegiance to the shadowy group or are on the cusp of joining forces with it.

On the face of it, Obama’s decision is essentially driven by mounting concerns at the grave situation in Afghanistan, whose army and police personnel are in dire need of being properly trained and equipped to vanquish the insurgency. As part of its commitment to an enduring strategic alliance with Kabul, the Pentagon will seek congressional approval to fund the sustenance of 352,000 Afghan army and police personnel through 2017.

Additionally, deficiencies in the Afghan security forces, alarmingly high casualties in the ranks of the army and police, and fears of IS finding a foothold in Afghanistan have prompted Washington to slow down the withdrawal process. Afghan forces continue to suffer from attrition, drug abuse, desertions, illiteracy, mismanagement and a lack of logistical skills.

A complete US military withdrawal by the end of 2016, as previously scheduled, would have imperilled the hard-won gains of the last 13 years.

Both Columbia University alumni, presidents Ghani and Obama exhibited a rare commonality of views on a wide range of complex issues, such as reconciliation with the Taliban, Kabul-Islamabad rapprochement, administrative reform, efforts at combating endemic corruption, regional stability, rule of law and respect for women’s rights. In the not-so-distant past, Afghan-US relations had hit an all-time low under former president Hamid Karzai.

Presidents Ghani and Obama exhibited a rare commonality of views.
However, Karzai’s successor was treated in Washington as a more reliable partner. He was assured of $800 million in economic and development assistance. The military extension and economic aid — signalling a marked improvement in bilateral relations — will help the cash-strapped government in Kabul to enforce security and execute badly-needed reconstruction projects.

Now that his policies have been endorsed by the Americans, the former World Bank technocrat will effectively silence his detractors, who see efforts at mending fences with Islamabad as a loss of political capital and peace talks with the Taliban as an exercise in futility. Hawks within the incumbent Ghani administration are in favour of an all-out military action against the militants.

Weeks after the inauguration of his presidential term in September, Ghani brought a dramatic shift to Afghanistan’s regional diplomacy by visiting Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China. While promising a crackdown on the Pakistani insurgents hiding in eastern Afghanistan, he asked Islamabad to help bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table. He believes circumstances have changed and reconciliation prospects are brighter than ever before.

But certain Afghan diplomats and political leaders have downplayed Ghani’s initiative. They argue that Pakistan and China, which have been staunch allies over decades, have their own vested interests in a Kabul-Taliban dialogue and are eyeing in return a helping hand from Afghanistan to ward off threats from the TTP and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

For its part, the Obama administration is clearly supportive of the recent nascent thaw in Kabul-Islamabad ties and a political settlement with the rebels as the surest way to achieve lasting stability in Afghanistan. The US shares Ghani’s vision for a more proactive and cooperative role for Pakistan in the Afghan-led reconciliation campaign.

With a realistic approach to governance and a willingness to take on the role of wartime leader, Ghani managed to muster US support for his endeavours to rebuild Afghanistan’s economy and restore peace. Being an economist, he made a strong pitch for technological know-how, not charity.

If consistently supported by its international allies, notably the US, the national unity government has the political will to eradicate corruption, clean up the electoral system, foster regional trade and reach out to neighbours. Greater regional cooperation can be an effective response to localised insurgencies where violent groups are campaigning against progress and the democratic way of life. To measure up to the challenge, the affected countries will be well-advised in forging partnerships at the global and regional levels.



Published in Dawn, March 30th, 2015