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Earthly matters: Solutions to save civilisation

By
RINA SAEED KHAN

For years now, the French film-maker and photographer, Yann Arthus-Bertrand, has been documenting how the fossil fuel era has exacted a heavy cost on the earth’s fragile environment. To show how humans have altered the face of the earth in the last century or so since oil was first discovered, he takes a bird’s eye view that goes beyond scientific statements and reports.
Hoisting cameras upon a small helicopter, he buzzes over polluted cityscapes, degraded forests and spreading farmlands. Last week, on the occasion of the European Climate Diplomacy Day, the Embassies of France and Germany hosted a photography exhibition entitled “60 Solutions” and the screening of a film, Home by Yann Arthus-Bertand at the Pakistan National Council of Arts (PNCA).

Released in 2009, Home was the first major film about climate change and soon after it was screened in cinemas around the world, it was made freely available on the internet. Today, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change comprising scientists from around the world) is telling the world that the situation is much worse than expected. According to the Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD who supported Yann ArthusBertrand’s exhibition and film), “climate disruption looms at the most important challenge of the 21st century — one that everyone must work urgently to counter”.

The event at the PNCA was organised six months ahead of the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change (COP21) to be held in Paris, and is a timely reminder of the urgent need for the world to come up with a legally binding climate agreement to curb carbon emissions that are causing climate change.

According to the European Union envoy, Stefano Gatto, “The European Union’s commitment to tackling climate change has placed the EU at the forefront of international negotiations as we push for legally binding agreements. At the time of the Kyoto Protocol, the EU was the only large emitter which committed to the Protocol and as a result we have reduced emissions by approximately 20 per cent. All other large emitters have increased emissions in the same period.”

While it remains a fact that it is the developed world that caused climate change in the first place with its excessive emissions, today it is the poor and most vulnerable people of the developing countries that are suffering the most. According to French ambassador Martine Dorance: “Climate change knows no borders and there is a shared responsibility and need for a shared commitment to redress the damage.” While this debate between rich countries (who want the world to cut emissions together) and poor countries (who want the rich countries to cut more of their emissions given their greater responsibility) has divided the global negotiations, Yann Arthus-Bertrand chooses to focus instead on solutions. In his photo exhibition, “60 Solutions” he travels the world taking photos of successful examples of climate change adaptation.
According to AFD, climate change adaptation “becomes an opportunity to engage a truly sustainable development model, one robust enough to work in a changingenvironment and inclusive enough to accommodate the poor and most vulnerable.” Yann Arthus-Bertrand’s photographs and accompanying text propose solutions like using renewable energy in the form of wind turbines in Ethiopia, giving out solar lamps to replace kerosene in communities in Africa, insuring harvests and protecting farmers in Mexico against climate change, introducing solar water heaters in South Africa to cut down use of coal, and setting up rapid transit systems (using buses) in Colombia. Other adaptive measures include supporting farmers to avoid conflicts, designating marine protected areas to save coral reefs, protecting mangroves, building typhoon resistant homes, introducing bio-digesters and terracotta cooking stoves and building small run-of-theriver hydro plants instead of big dams.

According to the AFD, the main supporters of the Good Planet Foundation set up by Yann Arthus-Bertrand who has become an activist keen on spreading his message of awareness of climate change and hope for solutions across the world, “All countries will have to transition to renewable energy … in developing and emerging countries we need new ways of organising and financing the energy transition.” One key area to focus on is urban cities; in the next 30 years the number of city dwellers will double around the world accounting for 70pc of the population. We need to introduce measures like energy efficient buildings, develop public transport, reduce water loss, fight air pollution (by shutting down polluting factories) and put garbage to good use (by composting or processing methane for electricity generation).

The world also has to invest in better farming and ranching practices so that we don’t cut down our remaining forests and wetlands in order to feed around 10 billion people on the planet. The “60 Solutions” exhibition is brilliant because it offers workable, tried and tested solutions to many of the climate change challenges the world is currently facing. These interventions need to be shared and scaled up — the government of Pakistan could certainly learn from these solutions, as Pakistan is fast becoming one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to the adverse impacts of climate change. As the German ambassador Cyrill Nunn pointed out: “Pakistan needs to be involved in the international negotiations because development and climate change are increasingly linked and climate change puts development goals at risk.”

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, June 28th, 2015
http://www.dawn.com/news/1190553/ear...e-civilisation
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Earthly matters:

KP’s creeping green revolution

The provincial government’s ambitious Green Growth Ini​tiative plans to harness the environment for development and uplift.

A few years ago, as we drove up to Besham on the Karakoram Highway, I was horrified to see piles upon piles of timber lining the road in Kohistan. They must have slaughtered an entire forest to get so many tree trunks which appeared to be Deodar wood — it takes almost 100 years for a Deodar tree to mature, so the carnage was outrageous.

There must have been over a 100,000 felled trees lined up along the road. The locals claimed that these trees were cut back in the 1990s before the ban on logging was enforced in Khyber Pakthunkhwa (KP). The good news is that the KP government has now taken over all this wood lying on the Karakoram Highway. They have apparently also moved against the timber mafia in KP, restricting their movement and catching hold of a lot of illicit timber (mostly from Kohistan). The timber, valued at Rs7 or 8 billion, will be sold by the KP government and the funds will be invested into forestry.

“Imran Khan himself visited these areas in a helicopter. In Mansehra, where many trees have also been illegally cut, he fired officials in the forest department from the conservator of forests down to the lower staff and filed cases against them,” explains Malik Amin Aslam, the architect of the PTI’s Green Growth Initiative and global vice-president of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
Aslam, who was also recently appointed an advisor on environment to the PTI chief, claims that timber permits cannot be acquired anymore in KP. “We have a twopronged strategy in the KP now — the timber mafia won’t be tolerated and we will plant more trees and send a positive message to our youth,” he says. Spearheaded by the current KP government, the Green Growth Initiative is a unique endeavour in Pakistan and has given birth to a stream of projects, which include the

Billion tree tsunami,” the installation of small hydel projects in the province, and an overhaul of its national parks. Later, the initiative plans to tackle rivers by cleaning them up.

The “Billion tree tsunami” got off to a slow start, as there were not enough nurseries in place to produce the tree saplings. Today the nurseries are doing well — they are privately owned, by mostly women at the village level who are growing nurseries of around 25,000 plants from which they earn around Rs10,000 to 18,000 per month. “Last year around 20 million saplings were planted and we monitored them for their survival rates. We have found a 90 per cent survival rate from last year. With the monsoon coming now our targets are higher; this winter’s target is six times more than from last winter,” explains Malik Amin.
The model has been so successful that they have got it registered under the international Bonn challenge, which is a global voluntary agreement by various countries to set forestry targets for themselves under the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Countries like Brazil, USA and Peru are all part of this challenge and now KP has become the first sub-national entity to enter into this agreement. The IUCN President visited Pakistan two weeks ago to give a letter of acceptance to the KP government for being part of the Bonn challenge. “This is exactly what needs to happen — by planting trees in Mardan, we are getting global recognition and potential funding in the future. Right now the Billion tree tsunami is funded by the KP government,” says Malik Amin.

Under the Green Growth Initiative, 256 small hydel projects of various sizes are also being built — 50 projects are at the commissioning stage, others still at the bidding stage. The goal is to complete them all in two years time; they are mostly off-grid and the electricity is to be used in the local areas. The Green Growth Initiative also focuses on national parks; the KP government has passed new legislation, which hands over the six national parks in KP to public private boards. “Now the parks’ management can directly access funds and doesn’t have to go through government machinery; every national park will have its own community conservation board. The local wildlife head will be on this board along with local NGOs and the district administration. The conservation boards will be given funds and the authority to spend on the parks.” The KP government also wants to increase the number of national parks to 12 and studies are in process. They hope to include the Pallas Valley in Kohistan, which is a thickly forested area of the country from where the timber on the Karakoram Highway was cut.

By 2018, Malik Amin claims KP can potentially achieve zero carbon growth — “Most of our electricity will come from hydro projects; we also have the largest forests in Pakistan and we plan on increasing the forest cover.” This is not just talk, he argues, as they have already started action on their Green Growth Initiative and have self financed it (without help from donors). “If there was green thinking amongst the other parties and if it would get embedded in the political movement, then there would be a strong impetus to get these things done,” he says.

With a forest cover of less than 4pc in Pakistan, it is heartening to learn that at least one province is taking action to green itself; let’s see some green thinking in the other provincial governments as well. With everyone in the world now talking about a “sustainable future,” it is time they also got with the programme.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, July 12th, 2015
http://www.dawn.com/news/1193975/ear...een-revolution
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At the mercy of climate change



You won’t recognise Bumburet Valley when we get there,” the jeep driver informed me as we navigated through streams and attempted to drive over broken roads that were washed away by devastating floods that hit Chitral District in July and August this year. One needs a 4x4 vehicle for the two-hour drive from Chitral town to the Kalash Valleys, which borders the Afghan province of Nuristan. It’s not a journey one can take lightly, and in fact we were only able to go theretake lightly, and in fact we were only able to go there thanks to a grant given by the Earth Journalism Network.

The three Kalash valleys of Bumburet, Rumbur and Birir are encircled by high mountains, separating them from Nuristan whose people were converted to Islam in the 19th century by an Afghan king. The Kalasha are an ancient tribe, the last survivors of Kafiristan (of which Nuristan was once a part), and their pre-Islamic religion is focused on their environment. Although they worship a creator called “Desau”, they also believe that trees, stones and streams all have souls.

A narrow jeep track used to lead into the narrow valley of Bumburet (the largest of the three valleys) but it is now strewn with large boulders brought down by the floods. To get to the villages of Bumburet, you now have to cut through agricultural fields and crisscross the main nullah. The track was opened just a month after floods that caused widespread destruction throughout Chitral District. ‹ At the entrance to Bumburet Valley lies the flood-damaged government primary school, where the children now have to study in tents alongside the jeep track. The nearby Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation Motel, which had individual wooden chalets and a large garden surrounded by a gushing water channel is now in ruins.

The water channel became a raging stream as floodwater came rushing down the mountains and into the Bumburet valley.
The rest of the main town in the valley was also badly hit; all the big hotels (Bumburet was a popular tourist destination before the floods) were damaged or destroyed as were countless shops, around two dozen houses, many orchards, fields and, of course, the main road itself. “I would say the floods were a result of all the deforestation that has taken place in these valleys in recent years, just look at the bare mountain sides — and, of course,climate change is also responsible. In the earlier years, summer would end in August when we would celebrate our autumn festival, it is still warm at the end of September,” explains Akram Hussain, a Kalash man who is in charge of the Kalasha Cultural Centre built by the Greek government in 2004 which is thankfully still intact. The Centre houses an impressive museum, community centre and educational facilities for the Kalash people. The museum hosts a large collection of Kalasha antiques like old jewellery, cooking utensils, sculptures of horses, rugs and costumes. The Kalasha women still wear their traditional dress of embroidered black frock tied at the waist by a belt or sash. The Centre was spared by the floods because of the strong stone walls built around the building by ‘Greek Volunteers’. “The high walls withstood the floodwaters that came rushing down from the mountains at one end of the valley and went around the building,” says Hussain.

The Greek government, which is presently facing severe economic problems at home cannot give the Kalasha much aid, believes that the Kalasha are descendants of Alexander the Great’s army which marched through the Hindu Kush Mountains centuries ago. Indeed, last year a team of geneticists led by the Oxford University sampled genomes from around the world and found that the Kalash people of Pakistan have chunks of DNA from an ancient European population.
Today only 4,114 Kalasha remain according to a census conducted in July 2014; there have been many conversions to Islam as more outsiders settle into the Kalash Valleys, often building homes near the main road. Around 1,800 Kalasha live in Bumburet but higher up on the sides of the valley.

"Our culture was already under threat, and now these floods have destroyed our crops and orchards. We will have to buy food from the bazaar and store it if we are to survive this winter. Luckily, there was no loss of lives in Bumburet because we got a call from the border police which jointly patrols the border with the army. They called us over our mobile phones to warn us that the flood was coming,” says Hussain.

I called people living near the Bumburet nullah (the mountain stream that runs through the valley floor) and told them to get out.” According to him, there were two major floods in Bumburet in July and a smaller one in August: “The second flood in July which lasted for two days caused the most damage. We have never seen floods like this in the Kalash valleys before. I would say that at least half of Bumburet Valley was destroyed or damaged by these floods.” Out of the 22 houses destroyed or damaged in the recent floods, four belonged to Kalash families. “Our houses are mostly built higher up and all the people living below ran up to our homes,” explains Shaheen Gul, a young Kalash woman living in Krakal Village in Bumburet. “But our fields with corn and beans that were ready for harvest and fruit trees like walnuts and apricots are gone as they were near the nullah.” Krakal Village is one of the oldest settlements in Bumburet, built high above the main road. The Kalasha’s traditional homes are extremely tough and well built and the wooden houses are almost stacked upon one another. “We could hear the flood before it arrived — we were so scared by the roaring sound in the middle of the night. Then the earth started shaking as if there was an earthquake. It was raining very hard that night,” she recalls. “Later, when we came down, we saw all the destruction — these floods were definitely much worse compared to the 2010 floods.” The soldiers patrolling the border with Afghanistan say that melting glaciers also played a role in the current floods. “There are around four glaciers high up in these mountains overlooking Bumburet; glacial floods came down along with the rain water that is why there were so many large boulders and we even saw large chunks of black ice,” explains Shair Shah, a member of the Chitral Levies border force.

Syed Harir Shah, an expert in disaster risk reduction who comes from Chitral, feels that torrential rainfall was the main cause of the flooding, “The shifting of the monsoon further extreme west to Chitral is a highly unusual event. It needs to be researched. How did it shift? Why was no proper warning given to the people of Chitral?” What will happen next year if the heavy rains come again is the daunting question in everyone’s mind.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, October 4th, 2015
http://www.dawn.com/news/1210844/ear...climate-change
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Countdown to COP21


In December this year, a very important conference in Paris will decide the future of civilisation as we know it. At the United Nations Framework Con*vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Paris — known as the 21st Conference of the Parties, or COP21 — countries are expected to agree to a new global deal to tackle climate change. Scientists say that if we cannot restrict global warming to two degrees Celsius, the world will face “catastrophic” climate change.

In October, with just over a month to go before the conference in Paris, the French Embassy in Islamabad with the help of various NGOs working for the environment held a large climate forum in Lahore. Civil society organisations like LEAD-Pakistan, UNDP-Pakistan, WWF-Pakistan, the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), the Mountain and Glacier Protection Organisation, IUCN and the Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD) at COMSATS University, all worked voluntarily with the French embassy for months to put the forum together.

The two-day long forum, entitled “Pakistan say Paris” held at the Al Hamra in Lahore with discussions on adapting to climate change, disaster risk management, climate policy and renewable energy, was a big success. Hundreds of students, civil society members, journalists and government officials attended the sessions. Ambassador Kamal of CCRD described the forum as the coming together of “the Pakistani climate coalition”. According to Nathalie Dupont, the political officer from the French Embassy, “We believe the momentum should be pursued before and after Paris and hope that … it will be a lasting and a long-term platform.”

A renewed pledge is needed to tackle climate change
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, the head of LEAD-Pakistan, concluded that: “We cannot emphasise enough that we need to instigate climate action into our development planning in order to ensure inclusive and rapid economic development.” The eminent environmental lawyer, Dr Parvez Hassan noted in his closing speech: “My prediction is that COP21 will be a game changer — after deadlock and suspense and all-night caucuses, there will emerge consensus and success”.

Climate change is currently considered one of the biggest challenges for humanity and Paris is where the world hopes to come up with a solution. The global carbon budget has largely been consumed and the window of opportunity to find solutions is narrowing. In preparation for Paris, the countries of the world have agreed to publicly outline what post-2020 climate actions they intend to take known as their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). To discuss Pakistan’s “Commitments on Climate Change” or INDCs, the Heinrich Boll Foundation in Islamabad last week held a training workshop for journalists to familiarise them with COP21.

The workshop brought together experts from LEAD-Pakistan and SDPI and government officials from the pioneering Quaid-i-Azam Solar Park in the Punjab and the innovative Billion Tree Tsunami project in Khyber Pukhtunkwa to discuss what are INDCs and what are Pakistan’s commitments. Around 25 journalists from both the print and electronic media, representing the major media houses in Pakistan, attended the workshop and filed stories and TV reports about what they learnt.

According to Marion Mueller, the country head of Heinrich Boll Foundation, “Paris is indeed an important conference. At the global level we see that with this COP the old agreements between the countries will end therefore a renewed commitment is required from the leaders of the world. Moreover, with the increased threat we need to be clearer and have a comprehensive plan of action for mitigation and adaptation. The new agreement to be negotiated in Paris this year must achieve commitments from the political leaders of the involved countries as to how quickly to implement the new agreement.”

Pakistan already ranks amongst the top 10 countries in the world most affected by climate change according to the Global Climate Risk Index. Pakistan is now continuously suffering from monsoon flooding, along with the recession of glacial and snow reserves, heatwaves in urban centers and droughts. Pakistan’s INDCs have still not been approved by the Prime Minister and submitted to the UNFCCC; other countries like Afghanistan and India managed to meet the Oct 1 deadline for submission.

However, former ambassador Shafqat Kakakhel who is the Chair of SDPI says “Pakistan’s INDC document is likely to be finalised soon because the joint statement on Prime Minister Sharif’s (visit to the US) clearly mentions Pakistan’s promise to submit its INDC document soon. Pakistan’s INDC paper should be done in such a manner that it serves as a brief for our delegation (going to Paris) consisting of diverse elements.” Pakistan is promising either a 10 per cent reduction from business as usual or 20pc reduction from business as usual (in emissions) if it is given the required funding.

According to Nadeem Ahmed of LEAD-Pakistan “What Pakistan really needs is an accurate greenhouse gas inventory — that is at the heart of everything.” Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change, which prepared the INDCs document, however is underfunded and does not have many resources at its disposal. “The time was too short and there was a lack of data and lack of understanding,” he explained further. However, Bilal Anwar, a researcher from the US who helped to guide Pakistan’s INDCs: “All the countries did it in a rush … this bottom up approach might be voluntary now but it will become binding.”

Pakistan’s INDCs document, which has been sent to the Prime Minister for approval, includes the new 100 MW solar park in Punjab and the KPK’s government’s ambitious tree plantation activities. The focal person for the Quaid-i-Azam Solar Park, Dr Rana laid to rest many controversies about the project, pointing out that it is Pakistan’s first big solar project and should be supported given the fact that the whole world is now moving towards solar energy, especially Europe.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in his recent meeting with President Obama in the US, has expressed his commitment to press for an ambitious agreement on climate change in Paris. The United States and Pakistan “welcomed the fact that the United States has communicated its INDC and that Pakistan stated its plan to soon submit its INDC.” The two leaders underscored the importance of longer-range efforts to transition to low-carbon economies and of continued, robust financial support to help developing countries build low-carbon and climate-resilient societies.

Source: Countdown to COP21
Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, November 1st, 2015
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Climate justice: There is no Planet B


Last Friday morning, Islamabad’s busy Jinnah Avenue was closed off to motor cars and opened for cyclists only.

Around a hundred young people from the capital city took part in the “Go Green Rally!” organised by the Heinrich Boll Stiftung (HBS) in collaboration with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).

The event was part of HBS’s ‘Planet B Campaign’, which was initiated in August this year, given that the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference 2015 is to be held in Paris in December.

The campaign promotes the idea of “There is no planet B — let’s change our policies, not the climate” with the aim to spread awareness at all levels of policy formulation and implementation on climate change.

“I’m very excited to take part in this rally,” said Sara, a student from the National Defense University. “We should have more events like these to raise awareness about climate change. Pakistan is facing floods each year, the situation is so grave, why aren’t our policy makers doing more about it?”

She was lucky to arrive early at the rally and managed to get a bicycle. Since HBS had only arranged for around a 100 bikes, the late-comers had to walk.

They did not mind, however, as they carried little banners with “There is no Planet B” slogans and chanted: “Let’s change our policies, not the climate” as they happily walked along Jinnah Avenue, enjoying the bright sunshine on a cool November morning.

Many of the young people were members of the Pakistan Youth Climate Network, initiated in 2010 by the SDPI. This is a less formal network that comes together for events like the cycling rally and tree plantations to try to raise awareness amongst the youth; it has more than 7,000 members.

Not only the youth, but five serving majors from the Pakistan Army also joined the rally. The participants took photos and videos, and uploaded the event onto their Facebook pages.

According to the HBS, the prime focus of the campaign is to advocate climate justice and sensitive policy-making to reduce the vulnerabilities of people, while engaging youth and other stakeholders.

The “Go Green Rally!” was the first event in this series and it was part of the worldwide “Global Day for Action” against climate change in the run up to the Paris conference.

The cyclists, all wearing fluorescent green jackets with the “There is No Planet B” logo, took a round of the city beginning at the HBS office off Embassy Road; circling around from in front of the parliament, all along Jinnah Avenue to finally turn at the main signal close to the F-8 sector.

The cycling rally was followed by a closing plenary where representatives from the government like Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal, the head of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) Marvi Memon and Member of National Assembly (MNA) from Islamabad, Asad Umar, were invited to the HBS office premises for lunch with the young participants of the cycling rally.

Since all the large climate marches that were supposed to take place in Paris have now been cancelled due to security issues there, it is even more important now that the informed citizens of all the large cities in the world play their role in highlighting climate change.

“Both Pakistan and the world need to adopt green values,” pointed out Mome Saleem, the programme coordinator for the HBS and one of the organisers of the event.

She explained that 130 organisations around the world were participating in the “Global Action Day” that is calling for people to put more pressure on their political leadership to change their policies and do more to curb carbon emissions that cause global warming.

Marion Regina Mueller, the head of HBS in Pakistan, which has been working in the country for almost 20 years now, said that multilaterism was not leading to a positive outcome; the Paris Protocol (as the agreement to be made in Paris will be called) should call for a global phase out of carbon emissions and phase in of renewable energy.

In her view, a legally binding agreement with adequate finance and a mechanism for loss and damage is possible. Marion noted we need “climate justice”; that those who contributed the most to creating climate crisis should now do more to solve it.

The other organiser of the event, Shakeel Ramay from the SDPI, explained that development and the environment go hand in hand and it is important to sensitise the youth.

He said that when he approached the government to participate in the event, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister of Planning, Development & Reform, readily agreed to come and take the message of environment friendly development forward.

Ahsan Iqbal spoke about the dangers of climate change. “Although Pakistan’s contribution to green house gas emissions is negligible, the country is suffering (from climate change) because of the behaviour of developed societies,” he said calling for a “global partnership” to develop new technologies and pointed out that in the Planning Ministry’s Vision 2025 document, “sustainable development is a pillar”.

In his view, Pakistan has already been investing in renewable energy, given the upcoming Dassu Dam, the Diamer Bhasha Dam, the Quaid-i-Azam solar park and all the wind energy projects planned in Sindh.

As for Pakistan’s coal deposits, he said that the government was looking at “super critical technology so that the emissions would meet environmental standards”.

MNA Asad Umar pointed out that although Pakistan was investing in renewables like hydropower and solar and wind energy, the country also needed to work on greater efficiency and introduce mandatory testing on cars.

Source: Climate justice: There is no Planet B
Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, November 29th, 2015
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Earthly matters: Climate change in Paris


The temperature in Paris during the day is exactly the same as Islamabad at night – maybe it’s the El Nino effect or even climate change, but this is a mild December in Paris. There has been a flurry of activity since I arrived — it started with the exciting Leaders Event on the first day of the UN Climate Change Conference 2015 or COP21, when one saw world leaders like President Obama, Angela Merkel and Justine Trudeau walking through the halls of the Le Bourget conference centre on the outskirts of Paris. Security is very tight here, given the terrorist attacks in Paris that took place barely two weeks ago. The ambience in the city of lights is definitely more subdued and somber than usual, although with Christmas approaching, people are now starting to go out shopping and eating at the bistros and restaurants.

Still there are police contingents everywhere, armed with machine guns — a bit like Pakistan! Even at the iconic Eiffel Tower there were paramilitary police carefully scanning the tourist filled area. I was headed to the nearby River Seine, where the indigenous and forest peoples from all over the world were gathering on the weekend for an event that represents the culmination of their campaign aimed at “drawing attention to their plight and the promise of the solutions that they offer for healing the planet they all call Mother Earth”.

The boat was one of the typical vessels cruising on the picturesque River Seine that runs through the heart of Paris, but draped with colourful flags and banners. I watched the indigenous leaders from the Amazon, the Congo Basin, Indonesia and Mesoamerica beat on drums and chant songs as the boat took a ride from the Eiffel tower area to Notre Dame Cathedral and back. Recent studies have shown that indigenous peoples outperform every other owner, public or private in forest conservation.

The only positive news coming out of Pakistan at the conference was KP’s ‘Billion tree tsunami’
Duane Kinnart from the Ojibwa tribe in Michigan in the US said: “We are here to create a better world; I think there will be a positive outcome in Paris. Things are changing; people are changing and bringing faith back to humanity. We are realising that we are all one”.

Back at the conference centre, there was a similar feeling of optimism running through the halls. Yvo de Boer, who was the previous executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) told the Climate News Network team, whose training I attended earlier in the week, that the meeting is likely to succeed in producing a climate treaty. “Agreed, Paris won’t keep global warming below the 2 degrees Celsius safety level … but it marks the point when the world finally moves from negotiation to implementation – albeit on a very modest scale.”

Currently negotiators are working on a 48 page long text, haggling over every bracket and comma, which has to be finalised before the end of the conference. The world leaders from around 150 countries, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, left soon after the opening ceremony and now it is the ministers from over 190 countries who are now leading the negotiations.

The Pakistani delegation is led by the recently appointed Minister for Climate Change, Zahid Hamid. The Pakistani delegation had their official side event alongside the Sri Lankans, entitled “Resilience to Climate Change”, in one of the halls at the Le Bourget conference center last week. The side event was organised jointly by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), a think tank in Islamabad and the regional NGO, Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA).

Zahid Hamid, who was joined by the Punjab Minister for Environment, Zakia Shah Nawaz Khan, sat on the podium along with the Sri Lankan negotiators. Abid Suleri, the head of SDPI, explained that Pakistan was facing the twin challenges of terrorism and climate change and the country was only now coming into the “post militancy era given the civil-military resolve in controlling extremism”. Zakia Shah Nawaz spoke about the Punjab government’s comprehensive efforts to control the dengue mosquito, whose spread has been attributed to climate change.

The Federal Minister Zahid Hamid, who is currently heading the Pakistani delegation in Paris, pointed out that Pakistan’s contribution to global warming was minimal, just 0.8 per cent of the global emissions and yet Pakistan was one of the most climate affected countries in the world.

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, recently launched by the NGO Germanwatch in Paris, “Some countries are being repeatedly battered by extreme climatic events. Pakistan has now been in the ‘Bottom 10’ for five consecutive years”. These climate-related disasters are threatening Pakistan’s economic growth and development. Zahid Hamid said: “Adaptation and climate resilient development is our highest priority”.

Pakistan does have a dedicated ministry and a comprehensive National Climate Change Policy in place, the policy is yet to be implemented so that climate change is mainstreamed. The minister was also silent about the highly polluting coal fired power plants that will come out of the China Pakistan economic corridor, which he described as “a game changer for the region”. What will come of out of the Paris conference for sure is a big push for renewable energy, which has now become increasingly affordable, so Pakistan’s insistence on turning towards coal is questionable at this late stage.

Unfortunately, Pakistan’s minuscule booth at the conference, which was secured by NGOs and not the government itself, seems to embody its irrelevance to the negotiations. The unambitious one-page long Intended Nationally Determined Commitments document submitted by Pakistan in preparation for the conference, which gave no targets, has put the country on a weak wicket. “By not submitting any targets, Pakistan is foreclosing its options to access international climate finance” was how Ali Sheikh, the head of LEAD-Pakistan which is present as civil society participants at the climate conference put it.

According to an independent climate expert from Pakistan also at COP21, Kashmala Kakakhel, “It is unfortunate that the government as well as our technical organisations engage with the UNFCCC process only at the end of the year at the COPs … Due to financial, capacity and commitment issues, we lose most of the ground and there is very little to do inside the negotiations as well as outside.” The only positive news coming out of Pakistan at the conference was the Khyber Pakthunkwa government’s pledge to restore 384,000 hectares of degraded land (by reforestation) under its “Billion tree tsunami” at the side event held by the Bonn Challenge, a global initiative that plans to restore 150 million hectares of degraded land around the world by 2020.

Source: Earthly matters: Climate change in Paris
Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, December 13th, 2015
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Default 27-12-2015

From Paris to Pakistan
By

RINA SAEED KHAN

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif enjoys the unique honour of being perhaps the only head of state who was present at the Earth Summit of 1992, where the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was born, and also 23 years later in Paris to witness the start of COP21 which resulted in the adoption of the Paris climate agreement, this December. Pakistan’s federal Minister for Climate Change, Zahid Hamid, recently pointed out this fact at a media workshop organised by the Heinrich Boll Foundation in Islamabad on what Paris means for Pakistan.

As for the criticism of the PM’s short speech and quick departure for the airport in Paris that was widely reported upon in the media, the minister stated in his defence: “There were over 150 leaders of various countries and they all left after making national statements which set the tone for the negotiations. I think the PM made a positive statement and everyone was directed by the chair to speak for just three minutes. It is a difficult exercise to keep one’s speech so short. There were heads of state who went over the three minutes limit but the PM adequately outlined the measures we are taking and ensured that Pakistan’s position was reflected.”

Bilal Anwar, a climate expert who now works for the Centre for Climate Research and Development at COMSATS University in Islamabad called the Paris outcome, “A landmark agreement that was not perfect. But in all my years at these negotiations I have not seen a perfect agreement come out of the UNFCCC process. We have the agreement and we have to live with it.” Bilal was in Paris for the two weeks of the negotiations as part of the official Pakistani delegation and noted that there was largely positive coverage of the agreement in the international media. “I think the agreement is good enough, ambitious enough and robust enough.”

A lot of pre-planning went into the Paris climate summit and excellent work was done by the French government in both managing logistics and ensuring that everyone was included. The French Embassy in Islamabad started preparing for the conference a year earlier and held a number of events and meetings. Clearly, the French had learnt from the failure of the Copenhagen summit in 2009. They organised a number of pre-conference ministerial meetings in Paris, which helped the negotiations. As a result of all this activity, 187 countries of the world (out of a total of 196 countries which are signatory to the UNFCCC) submitted their “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” documents promising actions at home, before the Paris conference. According to Bilal, this was the result of “high level mobilisation through the French diplomatic machinery. There was also a degree of transparency and inclusiveness. A positive mode and spirit of cooperation was maintained through out the two weeks”.

The two-week long negotiations that took place in Paris were less dramatic than the ones that took place in Copenhagen — there was less acrimony and hence less to report but there was certainly a spirit of camaraderie that was lacking in Copenhagen. Perhaps because the negotiations took place just a few weeks after the terrorist attacks in the city, there was enhanced cooperation and a feeling of solidarity with the French. Everyone knew in their hearts that there would be a positive outcome to the Paris summit and certainly people felt included and part of the decision making process. The French President himself maintained a high degree of presence at the negotiations that were held in Le Bourget, a town on the outskirts of Paris.

So what were the major principles of the Paris agreement? For one, the world agreed to limit the global average temperature increase to below two degrees with the aim of reaching to 1.5 degrees. In real emissions reductions that would mean 60 to 80 per cent cuts by countries in the second half of this century, which is actually quite ambitious. However, the divide between developed and developing countries was diluted by the agreement. According to Bilal, “The principle of common but differentiated responsibility is not as strongly anchored as it used to be. Now every country has some responsibilities — the argument of the historical responsibility of developed countries is not sustained anymore. There is also a shift in the approach to build mitigation actions based on domestic actions taken by countries; a bottom up rather than top down approach.”


" Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) are also to play a key role in meeting the ambition and targets that are set out in the agreement. Hence INDCs have effectively become NDCs and they are likely to become binding in nature and conditional in support. Pakistan will be resubmitting its INDCs document according to the Minister for Climate Change once it has completed its green house gas inventory in the next few months and once the final shape of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is agreed upon and we know exactly how many new coal power plants, etc. are going to be built. According to Bilal, “Pakistan has to go back to the drawing board and resubmit its INDCs which will become subject to independent review.”

This approach potentially allows the US president to approve the Paris agreement without congressional approval. He can say that it is the extension of the UNFCCC, which the US has already ratified, so there is no legal need to go through the Congress. John Kerry was there in Paris with his legal team coming up with this approach, which really allowed the US to participate actively. Remember, it was President Clinton who supported the Kyoto Protocol and returned to the US only to have the Congress decide that they would not approve it. “Hence the title is not Paris protocol but Paris agreement. It might work let’s see,” said Bilal.

The NDCs shall have to report emissions in a periodic and progressive manner and the idea is for countries to achieve peaking (of carbon emissions) as soon as possible but with the recognition for developing countries to take longer. This is important for Pakistan as it allows the country to build more fossil fuel power plants in the near future. As Bilal pointed out, “Our right to development is still there and secured by the Convention itself.” Global stock taking on the progress made will happen every five years starting from 2023. Now ranking number eight in this year’s global list of countries most affected by climate-related disasters, Pakistan needs all the help it can get in increasing its resilience.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, December 27th, 2015
http://www.dawn.com/news/1228718/from-paris-to-pakistan
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Default 29-12-2015

Uncertain clime
By

ARIF AZAD

ON Dec 12, world leaders reached a climate change accord in Paris. The agreement has been widely hailed as historic and world-changing by most world leaders. Jeffrey Sachs, head of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, called it a diplomatic triumph.

Undoubtedly, the climate agreement is historic in as much as its unprecedented consensual nature is concerned. In an age of growing international discord, the agreement represents the triumph of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. The agreement is also significant when seen in the backdrop of the last climate conference in Copen​ hagen which concluded without any agreement. Moreover, it is historic because it puts the issue of the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels on the agenda alongside scaling up the ambition of limiting the rise in world temperature to an ideal 1.5 degrees Celsius though keeping the increase to below 2°C as officially achievable. ‹ The agreement incorporates a regular five-yearly review of carbon emission targets pledged by individual countries, and is also legally binding in the broadest sense of the term. In fact, there is a lot in the agreement to be upbeat about in the long term. And there is something for everybody to celebrate.

Yet in the drive to reach the broadest consensus, specific goals and targets have been done away with or watered down. Elizabeth Korbert, an influential writer on climate change, has called the agreement a triumph of comity over coherence.

On the surface, the agreement is broadly legal binding, though the devil of non-enforcement is in the detail. This is the agreement’s Achilles heel which has swelled the army of detractors after the initial euphoria. These doubts centre on a number of areas. First, limiting warming to less than 2°C seems well beyond the wildest possibility. Even the preamble of the agreement acknowledges that the target will be hard to meet. The realisation of this target is further muddied when individual country targets submitted by 187 states are examined. The targets do not add up to realisation of the goal of achieving the 2°C target.

Secondly, there is no enforcement mechanism proposed in the agreement to make the gold of the agreement shine as put aptly by one blogger. Even modest targets proposed by individual nations are not enforceable. The targets set are entirely voluntary and depend on the political will of the countries involved. There is no firm commitment from the big polluters that they will reduce carbon emissions and there is no mechanism to sanction high polluters.

The United States fought hard to keep the deal sanctionfree based on the argument that it would be easier to sell it to the climate-sceptic Republican Congress. Looked at this way, the deal is a big climbdown from the Kyoto Protocol which was more target-oriented and laced with some semblance of enforcement. The issue of carbon pricing is also off the table in the new agreement. There is an indication of a five-yearly review of the carbon emission target which is going to start in 2023. In between, business as usual on climate change is likely to prevail. Third, the Paris climate deal offers no guaranteed way forward on the festering issue of climate financing despite the developing countries’ overwhelming focus on it. The projected climate finance of $100 billion is entirely voluntary and aspirational. There is no firm and cast-iron commitment to contribute to the funding. The associated concern is that climate finance may be funded out of the money diverted from the already shrin​ king aid bud​ get of the de​ ve​ l​ oped countries. Four , there is a growing concern that carbon trading and re​ newable energy will benefit business and industry, with the poor being left high and dry. In a neo-liberal age, with the declining power of the state over business regulation, it is hard to see how governments can force business into a direction which is not profit-oriented.

The world faces a climate emergency of unprecedented proportions. Yet, despite the hopeful and consensual wording of the document, action on agreement is hard to foresee. This is of a piece with previous attempts by the world’s leading powers to delay the implementation of agreements. The Paris agreement may have achieved consensus on a range of contentious issues. But the test of the deal would lie in the grinding work of monitoring and holding governments to account for the targets submitted by them and living up to the aspirational words embodied in the agreement. Now, as always, it falls to local and global civil society to prepare itself to hold governments to account and shout out louder for climate justice and equity.


Published in Dawn, December 29th, 2015
http://www.dawn.com/news/1229265/uncertain-clime
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