16.07.2013

New scam? Nandipur project

IT may or may not be the beginning of yet another epic scandal in the power sector but the questions being raised over the revival of the Nandipur power project already have the makings of, at the very least, an unnecessary distraction. Whether a former managing director of Pepco is a whistleblower or a partisan critic, the facts brought forward by him demand some kind of explanation. If a project that was originally slated to cost roughly $330m has now ballooned to $575m it does not automatically suggest corruption has played some role, but it does indicate that a more detailed explanation for the cost hike ought to be given. The Ministry of Water & Power’s initial clarification does not amount to a full explanation and it is correct that the prime minister himself has now requested a detailed report on the project from the Planning Commission.

Yet, the circumstances in which Mr Sharif has waded in also merit some comment, especially since the Supreme Court has already taken up the issue. Since being sworn in as prime minister, Mr Sharif has, by his own admission, focused relentlessly on the energy crisis. The government’s priorities have been two-fold: one, close the supply-demand gap as quickly as possible; two, bring down the average cost of electricity over the medium term, a task impossible in the immediate future as prices must necessarily rise to eliminate subsidies. As with most governance decisions, however, the temptation to focus on short-term benefits at the expense of long-term costs is ever present. This is where Nandipur’s 425MW, and many other projects like it, comes in. The political expediency of more electricity soon means quickly turning to new power projects as part of the solution — although it is questionable how much of the energy crisis is an overall capacity issue — and whenever there is political urgency, somewhere or the other the rules get overlooked, bypassed or deliberately ignored.

The long history of cyclical crises in the power sector means there are many examples of controversy. The IPP policy of the mid-’90s was revisited by the PML-N government and led to legal complications and investor interest drying up. The previous PPP-led government also appeared to approach the energy crisis as principally about an issue of capacity; that led to the great RPP scandal. The new PML-N government has long promised to do things differently this time. Nandipur is an early test and a report in three days, as demanded by the prime minister, is not sufficient.

Railway turnaround: Chinese company’s offer

THE government should seriously look into the offer by a Chinese company to help turn around the collapsing Pakistan Railways. In an interview with a Pakistani wire service, a senior official of Sinotec Song Shuangping stated that his company had a “plan to steer the decades-old railways system out of the crisis and make a profitable entity”. The plan suggests strengthening of the existing railway tracks and usage of electric locomotives to reduce the travelling time and significantly save the railway’s expenditure on running its trains. The Chinese company, which has been working on different power projects in Pakistan for the last 10 years, says the train network can later be extended up to the Gwadar port for the transportation of goods to other parts of the country. If implemented, it should reduce the country’s oil import bill, decrease the heavy traffic load on the highways, provide swifter and economical travel facility to the passengers, and, importantly, increase profitability. The president of the company met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during his recent visit to China. It is hoped that the government will also explore the possibility of Chinese cooperation for the revival of the railway when a delegation of the company visits Pakistan next month.

The railway is in a deep mess and its turnaround requires a lot of money, hard work and technical expertise. The previous government had also initiated a few reforms to involve the private sector to provide better travel facilities to the passengers and steer the department out of financial crisis, but no tangible results have so far been achieved. The new government has promised to restructure PR and revive it in the shortest possible time. As a first measure, it allocated Rs30bn for the railway in the budget for this year and cut the fares to attract more passengers. But the government’s turnaround plan will take a while to yield results. Chinese cooperation can be a quicker route to the railway’s recovery.

Indefensible complacency: Prisoners’ escape from custody

IT is hard to foresee an improvement in Pakistan’s woefully low conviction rate if suspects being tried in serious cases are able to flee from custody with relative ease. Two incidents last week in Karachi showed that lackadaisical security arrangements coupled with a crumbling infrastructure paves the way for dangerous men to make good their escape. On Saturday, two suspected TTP militants managed to flee from the city courts; an account of their escape would be truly comic were it not for the fact that the absconders were suspected violent extremists. The handcuffed suspects came out of an armoured personnel carrier in which they were being transported and walked out of the courts’ gate right under the nose of the policemen. It is strange the men in uniform thought nothing unusual about a pair of handcuffed individuals strolling out of the courts’ premises. Earlier in the week, three undertrial prisoners escaped from the anti-terrorism courts through a window in the washroom. The men were being tried in kidnapping and murder cases. It is a disturbing thought that hardened criminals and militants can easily break loose from custody, melt into the crowd and then resume their activities.

It is essential that stronger security measures are put in place to prevent such incidents, which have occurred on numerous occasions previously. A security plan for the city courts has been ready since 2010 but bureaucratic lethargy has prevented it from being implemented. The easy, unchecked entry and exit from the courts must be controlled; for suspects being tried in high-profile terrorism cases, a better option may be to opt for jail trials where, hopefully, better security can be ensured. Also, the authorities must look at possible collaborators within the police ranks, who may be helping dangerous suspects to escape.

17.07.2013

Same formula: PIA’s problems

A SUPPOSEDLY professional, apolitical management is in place now, but old habits die hard it seems. The formula to make PIA profitable again appears to be the same regardless of how political or non-political its management. The struggling airliner asks for a fistful of cash as an emergency bailout. It usually wants the fanciest of new aircraft to operate and a grotesquely bloated employee count is one of the items on the priority list. In addition, or perhaps linked to that last point, a political heavyweight or two in the incumbent government remembers relatives or friends employed by PIA who were treated unjustly, obviously by the previous government, and those heavyweights make it their business to right the wrongs done unto their near and dear ones. So it is that two brothers of Senator Mushahidullah Khan, the PML-N information secretary, have been retrospectively promoted in PIA and the family believes that an injustice has been righted.

In the larger scheme of things, especially for a top-heavy, massively overstaffed organisation, the promotions of the senator’s brothers may be a small affair but it does suggest that a true shift in institutional culture, both on the political side and in PIA, has not yet taken place. And surely, putting aside the PML-N’s pledges about transparency and a by-the-book approach for a minute, that cannot be a good thing for either politics or airline business.

Yet, the broader issue is of PIA’s survival itself. Having asked for Rs16bn and drawn up a wish list that the government is supposed to pay for, the new management of the national carrier has been given Rs7bn. Was either the demand — for Rs16bn — or the actual bailout sum — Rs7bn — grounded in a viable plan? The demands for emergency cash infusions vary. Sometimes it is Rs20bn, at other times it is several times that for new planes; then again, it can be a smaller sum to allow the airline to keep its planes up in the air for the next few hours or days. But the basic questions are never really answered. Is PIA’s immediate problem that the average age of its fleet in service is 16 years or the fact that it has 18,800 employees for the 24 planes it operates, an employee-to-plane ratio of more than four times the global average of profitable airlines? The un-happy truth is that for all the red on PIA’s balance sheet, the airline has learned that it can milk the government endlessly.

Judicious water-sharing: Illegal diversions

WHILE low inflows from upstream have been cited as a reason for reduced availability of irrigation water in Sindh, it is equally true that illegal diversions within provincial boundaries are playing a significant role in the uneven distribution of water. Well-connected individuals illegally divert canal water to irrigate their lands, leaving tail-end growers with less than their share. Highlighting this unlawful siphonage, the Indus River System Authority has found over 70 illegal water outlets connected to the Sukkur Barrage’s Northwest Canal. Not only are these outlets depriving Balochistan of its share, tail-enders in Sindh are also being affected. An Irsa team has said both the Sindh and Balochistan governments are not doing enough to prevent the illegal siphonage of water. The team has also said that the Sukkur Barrage is under threat as a delta has formed in its storage area, while some individuals are using the formation to plant crops. The delta has formed because apparently, irrigation rules were ignored. This has resulted in a reduction of the barrage’s storage capacity.

Both these instances point towards mismanagement and neglect. For this, the provincial irrigation departments particularly in Sindh where the irrigation authorities’ poor performance has repeatedly come in for flak, must be held responsible. Honest officials who try and put a stop to illegalities are either ostracised or transferred. Managing the water shortage and judiciously sharing water are major challenges before the federation, particular-ly between Sindh and Punjab and now Sindh and Balochistan. Hence if water management is ineffective within a province, it only exacerbates the overall situation. For judicious inter- and intra-provincial sharing of water, Sindh’s irrigation department needs to be overhauled to prevent water theft and system losses. The provincial chief minister has himself stressed the need to crack down on water thieves while tail-end growers in the province have for long criticised illegal diversions of water. Politicisation within this key department must end while professional and honest officials must be allowed to do their jobs, without interference from ‘influentials’.

Realism is required: Persecution in Egypt

THE military-led interim government in Egypt would be making a grave mistake if it focuses on persecuting Mohammed Morsi and his supporters instead of working on a quick return to constitutional government. Since the July 3 coup, Mr Morsi has been under arrest, the assets of 14 Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been frozen, and there are reports that the public prosecutor plans to move on complaints of ‘criminal offences’ against the ex-president. This indicates the military’s preference for a non-electoral cleansing of Egyptian politics instead of a transparent poll. Mr Morsi was his country’s first democratically elected president, though there is no doubt his rule was devoid of good governance. He made many mistakes, failed to improve the economy, and decided to concentrate powers in himself. This provided enough ammunition for action to his political opponents comprising liberals and remnants of the Hosni Mubarak regime. They had every right to express their opinion and protest. But the demonstrations took a violent turn, and this gave the military a much-needed pretext to overthrow his government.

Did the demonstrations at Tahrir Square and elsewhere reflect majority sentiments? Even if they did, there was no justification for military intervention. The interim set-up is already in the soup. The Brotherhood has refused to join the cabinet, so have two other conservative parties. The Brotherhood insists it will continue its protests till the reinstatement of the Morsi government. Such a possibility is remote, and Mr Morsi’s party too should show realism. Its leadership would be unconsciously advancing the army’s cause if it prolongs its confrontation and thus enables the military to postpone the election. In the interest of Egyptian democracy, both the army-backed government and Morsi supporters should agree on a formula for democracy’s return.

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

18.07.2013

The next president: Election date announced

A PRESIDENTIAL election is scheduled for Aug 6 — and with it the first fully civilian-led democratic transition in decades will be complete. Perhaps the greatest testimony for stability and continuity is the relatively low-key manner in which the election has been announced and received by the public. A short walk down memory lane and the uncertainty that marked the exit of retired Gen Musharraf and the election of the president is easily recalled. Of course, there is a significant structural difference this time round: the presidency has been stripped almost entirely of any power of significance and the office has been returned to close to the status envisaged for it under the 1973 Constitution. Even after the 18th Amendment reversed many of the powers accrued to the presidency by Mr Musharraf, the office remains heavily politicised owing to its present occupant — technically, because President Asif Ali Zardari was also co-chairman of the PPP until earlier this year and de facto because he called the shots in the governing party until March.

Still, there are some creases that have yet to be ironed out when it comes to the presidency. For one, this business of by-elections rendering the electoral college — parliament and the provincial assemblies — incomplete needs to be looked into. Dozens of seats in the provincial assemblies and the National Assembly have yet to be filled because by-elections to seats either not contested on May 11 for procedural reasons or vacated by winners who opted to hold on to another seat have not yet been held. While political heavyweights undoubtedly prefer the option of being able to contest multiple National Assembly and provincial assembly seats, a more sensible approach would be to limit one candidate to one seat. For another, the tweak to the rules in 2007 ahead of Mr Musharraf’s re-election bid needs to be looked at again. Why, for example, because of an attempt to smooth the re-election process of Gen Musharraf should the clause barring certain types of individuals from contesting the election not be re-instated?

In the run-up to the finalisation of the list of contenders on July 29, however, the focus will be inevitably on who will be the next president. This much is clear: the PML-N candidate will almost certainly win on Aug 8. But who will that person be? Given the overwhelmingly Punjabi roots of the present dispensation, a candidate from one of the other provinces would be a great idea. But whoever that person is, controversy and stirring up unnecessary political tensions should be avoided.

Still not accessible: YouTube ban

FOR users of YouTube, the popular video-sharing website that has been blocked in Pakistan since September 2012, there is little on the horizon indicating that a lifting of the ban is imminent. Efforts are being made to challenge the blackout in the judiciary, with petitions being heard in the Lahore and Peshawar high courts. The Lahore High Court is not happy with Google, which owns YouTube, for its apparent lack of willingness to attend case hearings. However, at its core this is not a purely legal issue but one of access to information. The internet is a vast expanse, with all sorts of material spread across its far reaches. Considering this, citizens cannot be denied access to important portals on the web simply due to the existence of a few offensive links. The state does not realise the importance of sites like YouTube. While it is true that such websites do host some inane and even outright offensive material (such as the anti-Islam film trailer that originally ignited the controversy), there is also far more productive content that web users are denied access to when states enforce blanket bans. This includes entertainment content, such as popular ditties and classic movie clips, as well as content of a more educational and informational nature (online lectures, tutorials, etc) along with rare archival footage.

Considering the educational and informational value of YouTube, as well as people’s right to access information, perhaps the best course for Pakistan would be to work on a mutual legal assistance treaty with the US. Through this, websites can be directed to respect the laws of other countries. Such arrangements are in place elsewhere in the world, and facilitate in filtering out objectionable content. Hence, it is hoped the courts direct the government to pursue such a treaty so that the YouTube blockade is lifted soon, and the next time deliberately provocative content is uploaded, a more intelligent approach is used to counter the move instead of blocking entire websites.

Kremlin’s anti-spy device: Typewriter revival

AUTHORS and journalists the world over must have felt nostalgic over the Kremlin’s plans to re-induct the typewriter. A document produced on the typewriter, Russian apparatchiks say, is less prone to leaks in a world where cyber espionage has begun to affect relations among nations. No doubt, the typewriter had a romance all its own. Its tick-tick had a soothing effect that enabled wordsmiths to produce billions of words in the form of classics whose magic has withstood the ravages of time. For journalists, the typewriter was an intrinsic part of their being. Old-timers remember hordes of journalists boarding planes and descending on media events carrying their portable Olivetti through airports without scanners. The CEO thought it beneath his dignity to haul a portable typewriter, but today enjoys carrying his laptop and works on it aboard a plane. The Urdu-script typewriter never clicked because of the Kufi type. No wonder as late as the mid-’80s Urdu-language newspapers employed lowly paid calligraphers to do the job.

Few computer-using authors can boast a tome comparable to the classics produced on the typewriter — or works produced before the machine was invented. The Bard had no typewriter, and Tolstoy must have written War and Peace in Cyrillic in longhand. To American wit Mark Twain went the honour of being the first author to write a book on the legendary Remington typewriter. Muslim scholars wrote on paper, and then there were the masters of antiquity whose nuggets of wisdom came even before Cai Lun invented paper. Meanwhile, the typewriter had one priceless advantage: it didn’t distract one’s attention by allowing jokes sent via email from a cousin in the Cayman Islands to disturb the writer’s train of thought as he hammered away on the keys.

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

19.07.2013

Inexplicable delay: Local government polls

IT is sad fact that in Pakistan, elected governments have usually dillydallied on the question of holding local government elections. On the other hand, authoritarian regimes have often facilitated this essential democratic exercise. There is little to indicate this trend is changing as the judiciary seems more interested in ensuring the holding of local body polls than the provincial governments. On Thursday, the Supreme Court ordered the provinces to submit dates by July 22 for holding LG polls, reiterating its earlier instructions that the elections should be held by September. Various problems related to service delivery in health, sanitation and other sectors have arisen due to the absence of elected local governments countrywide. If democracy is to be devolved to the third tier, it is essential that citizens elect their own local representatives.

The main problem seems to be the absence of workable legislation at the provincial level to allow the holding of LG elections and a functional, responsive system to be run under such laws thereafter. In KP the previous ANP government revived the Zia-era LG law in its last days, though the present PTI-led government reportedly wants to pass new legislation in order to introduce its own LG system. Balochistan passed an LG law in 2010 restoring the commissionerate system, but the law needs to be overhauled. Political expediency has hampered the passage of an effective LG law in Sindh as the MQM and PPP have sparred over which system is best for the province; an updated version of the Musharraf-era law, or the 1979 system. Politicking can also be seen at work in Punjab, where a new LG law is sitting in the assembly. Apparently, the N-League is wary about possible gains the PTI could make at the local level.

Regardless of the fears holding back the parties from passing the requisite legislation, it must be realised that elected local governments are a constitutional requirement. If lawmakers feel the Musharraf-era legislation gave excessive powers to the third tier, they should make the necessary amendments. However, the workable elements of the previous system should not be jettisoned. Moreover, when the new systems are in place, they must be allowed to work and not overturned every time a disagreement with a political ally crops up or a new party takes the helm. This political seesawing can be disastrous for governance. Each province must decide which system it wants, pass or amend the relevant laws and set a date for polls without further procrastination.

Stumbling blocks: Investment treaty with US

TALKS towards a Bilateral Investment Treaty with the United States are starting again. It is worth bearing in mind that this effort has been going on for almost a decade and that past negotiations have run aground on more than one occasion. The terms demanded by the US for the resolution of disputes are so stringent and bypass all domestic channels for arbitration so completely that this has become the main impediment in the negotiations. Unfortunately, this time there is an added disadvantage to the Pakistani position that the last government, in its closing days, had already initialled a draft of the treaty which gave some space to local dispute resolution mechanisms but still kept international arbitration as the ultimate forum for appeal. This agreement ran into criticism at home and the government was accused of ‘selling’ Pakistan’s interests abroad.

So it is a positive sign that both countries have once again agreed to resume talks on BIT. Pakistan already has bilateral investment treaties with 47 other countries, and almost all of them provide for the international arbitration of disputes. It is an unfortunate fact that many of these agreements were signed without careful vetting, and in almost all cases the initial draft was always placed on the table by the counterparty, not Pakistan. A number of expensive lawsuits have arisen as a result, burdening the state with high costs of litigation at international forums. This time it is very important that the draft be thoroughly scrutinised and that space be reserved for domestic institutions to serve as the first port of call for dispute resolution. But it is equally important that emotional tirades of ‘selling’ the country’s interests be avoided, and the need for foreign investors to have recourse to international arbitration be acknowledged. At the end, it would be a good thing for Pakistan to eventually have a BIT with the US, and finding the path to this outcome should be the first guiding principle in the talks ahead.

Fair trial or persecution?: Bangladesh war crimes

PRIME Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid must ask herself what exactly will be achieved by the war crimes trials, whose fairness has been questioned by Bangladesh opposition leaders and human rights’ activists. On Wednesday, a court sentenced a Jamaat-i-Islami leader to death two days after a life sentence was given to a former JI head for a slew of crimes that ranged from the torture of intellectuals to what was termed as genocide. At least five people have been killed in the latest wave of violence as Islamist activists protested against the conviction of former JI head Ghulam Azam. As the trials proceed, it has become impossible to avoid the impression that the judicial proceedings have acquired a partisan character. Those on trial also include leaders of the opposition Bangladesh National Party led by Khaleda Zia. The former prime minister has called the trials a “farce” because she believes that the ruling Awami League is using the courts to persecute the opposition.

The AL included the trials in its 2010 campaign, and there is no doubt this must have partly helped it win the polls. But reopening old wounds at a time when the country is already in the grip of severe political violence that has left scores dead doesn’t make political sense. Polarisation between the Islamists and their opponents can quickly degenerate into utter lawlessness as exemplified by the Shahbag protests that are too recent to be forgotten. The 1971 civil war and the brutalities that took place were no doubt traumatic happenings, but the AL government should try to heal the wounds and achieve internal reconciliation instead of exploiting that tragedy through a bizarre mixture of politics and law. A continuation of the trials could push Bangladesh into anarchy.

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

20.07.2013

Society’s silence: Sectarian and minority killings

ACCORDING to the findings of a report by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom, a bipartisan body of the US government, more than 700 people have been killed in sectarian and minority attacks in Pakistan in the last 18 months. Of this number, 635 were from the Shia community. Despite having witnessed the human face of the tragedy that such attacks have left in their wake in the shape of countless deaths of and injuries to innocent citizens; the unburied bodies of small children; and then mass funerals, the hard, cold statistics still manage to shake us to the core. The loss of so many lives over a year and a half means more than one death per day — every day — for 18 months. But if there is a greater tragedy than these unrelenting attacks, particularly on the Shia community in terms of numbers, it is the indifference they have elicited from state and society.

From the military to the political parties to others such as those who profess to be our spiritual and religious leaders, there is no condemnation and no plan of action to stem this killing spree. The mainstream political parties have rarely found the courage to condemn the militant outfits by name; the military leadership can occasionally find the voice to speak out against ‘extremism’ as a whole but not specific groups; and our religio-political leadership can mobilise against drone attacks but not against the murder of innocent children in Quetta.

But the fault is not the state’s alone though it has to answer for a number of sins of commission and omission. Equally at fault is the society in which these militants exist and operate. The quiet acceptance of their violent agenda is a result of the prevalence of their hate ideology in the society at large where literature targeting sectarian and minority beliefs is widely available and banners and posters expressing similar sentiments are publicly displayed. Apart from a few individuals whose voices are barely heard against the loud militant voices baying for blood, when have we ever witnessed a sustained campaign for the rights and safety of such communities? It is this silence of the rest of society that has allowed the state to remain apathetic; for the political parties to stay quiet and for the militants to continue killing. Till this silence is not replaced by a strong demand for an end to this madness, this killing spree will continue.

Atrocities continue: Violence in India-held Kashmir

THE protests erupting in India-held Kashmir over the alleged desecration of the Holy Quran and the manhandling of a cleric come at a time when the new political set-up in Pakistan is making serious attempts to revive diplomatic efforts to restart the peace process with India. Thursday’s shooting spree by India’s Border Security Force in Ramban district that left at least four people dead further exacerbated the situation and is a sad commentary on the occupation authorities’ heavy-handed approach to the tense situation in the Valley. The BSF version that the Indian forces opened fire to disperse a crowd approaching an arms and ammunition base was countered by an imam who said the security personnel had come looking for militants. Irrespective of what led to the shooting, one thing is clear: the incident has added fuel to the simmering unrest in the Valley. All major towns in India-held Kashmir are now under curfew as angry Kashmiris have called for a three-day strike. India’s home minister called the protesters’ killing “saddening” and has ordered an inquiry, while Chief Minister Omar Abdullah remarked that the BSF’s conduct was “unacceptable”. This ritualistic condemnation for record’s sake doesn’t cut much ice. Indian security forces are known to operate with impunity in Kashmir. What is needed in this case is an honest probe into the shooting to establish guilt and punish the perpetrators.

It is about time that New Delhi realised that Kashmir is still at the core of India-Pakistan relations, and that the passage of time has not served to lessen the importance of the issue. A lasting peace between the two countries is hardly possible without a solution that is acceptable to the two countries and, above all, to the people of Kashmir, and that’s where India has shown a regrettable lack of foresight. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif might have conveyed to British Foreign Secretary William Hague his keenness to normalise relations with India, but incidents such as these will not help the peace process.

Shows of charity: Help during Ramazan

RAMAZAN has changed over the years. Displays of opulence mixed with piety were always there but it seems that Pakistanis today have that much more to spend and showcase. During the holy month, charity queues in the streets are a regular sight. Little attention is paid to the merits of keeping it low key; the giving of charity generates much ceremony instead of taking the form of quiet help dictated by one’s conscience and religious obligations. Chaos in these charity lines is routine, sometimes with consequences as dire as death and injury.

There is no respite from loud expressions of wealth and piety, and it was inevitable that the media which loves passionate scenes has entered the contest to claim its share of spoils generated by this type of Ramazan activity. The television channels in particular appear to relish the melodramatic value of highlighting misery and causing pangs of guilt among the viewers. Ultimately, the appeal for aid to families and individuals in distress does not translate into the desired level of relief, for reportedly, only a small percentage of the money pledged in response to televised appeals materialises. But the channels have little to complain about. They can have the satisfaction of appearing as do-gooders and also do good business to cover the worldly side of things. Indeed they can be content they have sufficiently shaken the more privileged sections into remembering their duties towards fellow human beings or fellow countrymen or fellow Muslims, whatever sells best at the moment. It is a simple formula: fight misery by making the audience feel miserable — permissible in the absence of an ethics code to govern matters of charity. A code could restore some dignity to life in this country during and after Ramazan.

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

22.07.2013

A long wait: Energy policy

THE ‘energy policy’ we are hearing so much about is beginning to appear like an elusive mistress, revealing itself only in glimpses. It has been over two months now since we were told that a working group had been formed, that a large plan was being hammered out, and that a comprehensive set of reforms, aimed at resolving the country’s power crisis on a permanent basis, would be unveiled. Since then we’ve seen a retirement of the circular debt to the tune of Rs326bn — in a surprise move only days before the close of the last fiscal year — and further talk of tariff hikes beginning with industrial and commercial consumers. And now we’re hearing talk of full-scale privatisation of the various power utilities in both generation and distribution.

All of this is good in one sense. Retirement of the circular debt was indeed essential before undertaking any meaningful reforms. Tariffs do need to be reformed to close the gap between the cost of generating electricity and the cost at which it is sold. Without closing this gap, the circular debt would come back within a few months, just like it has done in every other instance of full-scale retirement of debt. Closing this gap means raising the cost at which electricity is sold; but it also means bringing the cost of generation down by raising efficiencies. And today there is hardly anybody left who believes that the power bureaucracy can do much to raise efficiencies, meaning the induction of private management is going to be key to the whole process.

So it is a good thing that the government is talking about these measures, and it is also a good thing that it appears to have the sequence right. What is missing in all this is the policy itself, the deeds that make the words meaningful. Now we are told that the policy will be taken to the Council of Common Interests before it is unveiled. Broadening ownership is a good idea, and it would be helpful if the provinces desist from being merely obstructionist. But given the hype and the amount of time that is going into this affair, we are entitled to expect that we would have been further down the road by now. Delaying bitter medicine is never a good thing. Some delays are to be expected, but the government also needs to be careful that it is not left forever in search of that other elusive mistress: consensus.

Effective response needed: Terrorist threat in Karachi

AN accidental explosion in Karachi on Saturday evening has once again laid bare the serious and continuing threat the city faces from terrorist violence. According to media reports yesterday, one of the alleged terrorists who survived the explosion in the Patel Para neighbourhood of Karachi claimed that he and his accomplices who died in the blast were planning an attack on processions marking an important day in the Shia calendar. Neither the plot nor the target is particularly surprising. Karachi has been and remains a dangerous sectarian flashpoint. What is cause for alarm, though, is the manner in which the plot was exposed. Had the would-be bombers proved more skilful at assembling bombs, Karachi may have discovered the bombers only after they had carried out a successful strike. The short-run measures that can be taken to avoid more sectarian carnage in the days ahead are seemingly being taken: the police are coordinating with Shia leaders and intelligence agencies to secure the Yaum-i-Ali procession route and ensure a peaceful day.

Yet, that still leaves the larger problem of sectarian and other terrorist cells able to blend in all too easily in one of Karachi’s many teeming neighbourhoods and plan and plot attacks with near impunity. The only effective responses to this long-standing threat are well known by now: better resourced and trained police; minimising political interference in law enforcement; enhanced coordination across civilian and military intelligence agencies; and a gradual rebuilding of trust between the citizenry and the state — perhaps in better times, neighbours may have reported the suspicious behaviour, if any, of the occupants of the apartment that was blown up. In Karachi’s case, of course, the problems are compounded: an uneasy relationship between the PPP government in Sindh and the PML-N government at the centre, as well as an uneasy relationship between the MQM, which dominates Karachi, and the PPP, which dominates rural Sindh. But if Karachi’s legitimate leadership continues to abdicate its responsibilities to the city, the terrorists will surely demonstrate what they are capable of.

A well-scripted farce: Israel-Palestine talks

GIVEN the fate of previous such ‘breakthroughs’, John Kerry’s announcement on the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks “in the next week or so” should be taken with a pinch of salt. The two sides have reached, according to the American secretary of state, an agreement “that establishes a basis for resuming direct final status negotiations”. The final status issues are what the Palestinian conflict is all about — Jewish settlements, a Palestinian state’s borders, the refugees’ return and Jerusalem. As he made the announcement in Amman on Friday, Mr Kerry must have known Israel’s inflexible position on these issues. All Israeli governments, including the one now headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, have made it abundantly clear they have no intention of scrapping Jewish settlements on the West Bank, including Jerusalem, which they consider Israel’s “eternal capital”. This flies in the face of President Barack Obama’s June 4, 2009, speech in which he had called upon Israel to stop work on the settlements. On the 1967 borders, President Obama ‘corrected’ himself within 24 hours of his May 2011 faux pas that aroused the wrath of the Israel lobby in America; and expecting Israel to accept the refugees’ return is unrealistic.

The only serious attempt at a two-state solution was made in 1993 by Bill Clinton when Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat signed the declaration of principles. However, after Rabin’s murder, Israeli governments wrecked it systematically. The resumption of talks must be welcomed for record’s sake. In truth, Israel has no intention of giving up the occupied territories, the promise to free Palestinian prisoners coming across as a PR job. Launching such talks satisfies Washington’s ego. For most others, it is a well-scripted farce that gives Israel time to gobble up occupied territory.

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

23-07-2013

IF it weren’t a matter of lives and the livelihoods of thousands of people, Pakistan’s inability to learn from experience would be farcical. We refer, of course, to the onset of the monsoons and the flooding that several parts of the country, particularly Punjab, have been experiencing in recent days. In the areas surrounding Narowal and Sialkot districts, heavy rain and increased flows in water channels and/or breaches have left entire villages inundated. In Prana Walah village alone, which is under some four feet of water, around 2,000 people were reported stranded on their rooftops. Meanwhile, in the agricultural heartland of the country, paddy crops over hundreds of acres have been destroyed, the lives of hundreds of heads of cattle are at risk because of the unavailability of fodder — adding to this is the looming scenario of disease and destroyed infrastructure that inevitably follows large-scale inundation. The lower parts of the country have not yet been affected to the same degree, but there is little doubt that when the waters hit, the situation — at the very least in pockets — will not be dissimilar.

Did the state do much to prepare for what has become a regular characteristic of the monsoons in Pakistan? It has been only three years since the catastrophic floods of 2010 when the state apparatus was caught napping amidst unforeseen natural disaster. But there are few indications that the administration learnt anything from that experience, even though the following years saw the same suffering, albeit on a somewhat lesser scale. Each time the state creaks into ponderous action as though surprised that the rainy season has started, and each time sections of the population that are least able to ride out the storm are left badly affected. How many times does the same scene need to be played out before Pakistan learns to clean up its water courses, shift vulnerable populations and have a mapped-out plan for disaster mitigation ready by the time the skies open?

Cosmetic measures: Pillion-riding ban


ALTHOUGH the pillion-riding ban has been in effect since March in Karachi, no significant fall has been witnessed in the number of violent killings in the metropolis. In fact, recent figures released by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan state that over 850 people have been killed between April and June while the ban has been in force. These figures should prompt the authorities to take a fresh look at the ban and its effectiveness. What it has done has affected millions of people in Karachi, as commuters, unable to hitch a ride on a friend or a co-worker’s motorcycle, are forced to opt for an inefficient public transport system. The ramshackle state of the city’s buses and coaches is well known. Frequent CNG shutdowns have further aggravated the situation. There are now fewer buses on the roads, which means that people have to compete for every inch of space on dangerously overloaded vehicles. To add to this, because of the ban thousands of pillion-riders have been arrested and temporarily placed in lock-ups; this for a relatively minor infraction while far more dangerous individuals are free to roam the city’s streets. The ban is also a way for police to further shake down motorcyclists; a small bribe is usually sufficient for violators of the ban to avoid arrest.

An indefinite, open-ended ban on pillion-riding is a bad idea and hurts the common man more than it hurts the criminal or militant. If there is a pressing need, the practice can be banned for a short period. A permanent ban only adds to people’s miseries and does little to control killings. Such moves are cosmetic measures that do little to deter violence and are no alternative to better policing based on workable intelligence and pre-emptive law enforcement.

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“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”

24-07-2013

THE new power policy carries an uneven promise of change. It is comprehensive in that it touches on almost every aspect of the power sector. But its hand is light in some places and heavy in others. For instance, in the matter of recovering outstanding bills the new policy is quite heavy-handed. Government defaulters, like the provincial governments, will find themselves dealing with a “federal adjuster” who will be empowered to deduct their outstanding amounts from federal transfers. Defaulters in the private sector will face disconnection after 60 days of non- payment, and reconnection to the grid will only be allowed with pre-paid meters after that. Ominously, the policy also makes reference to “[e]xternal collection agencies” that may be used to “improve cash flows”. Meanwhile, the policy of making high-loss areas bear a heavier burden of loadshedding will now become a national policy, where until now it was being seen only in Karachi.

But important ambiguities remain. For instance, the old suggestion of creating an energy ministry has obviously been debated by the working group, but the proposal has been defeated. Instead, there will be an “official coordination council” which will liaise between the ministries of water & power, petroleum and finance, and the Planning Commission. The powers of the council are ill-defined — to “ensure information integration” and “assist in policy formulation” — and its role is likely to be a marginal one. Coordination in the power sector will depend — now as before — on the degree of personal rapport that the various ministers can develop with each other. For institutional reform, the policy mentions reforming Nepra and Ogra “to improve efficiencies”, a far cry from the strengthened and autonomous regulators that many have been calling for.

The policy focuses on trying to wring more out of the present state of affairs rather than reforming the architecture of the power sector as a whole. It talks about providing white-glove treatment to new investors through “key client managers” and time-of-day metering and efficiency standards for electronic appliances. It aims to build a merit order in fuel allocations by providing fuel on priority to more efficient plants (ie the independent power producers) and says that conservation strategies like the early closure of shops “may be considered”. But for all its impressive scope, the actions outlined in the document are likely to fizzle out faster than the planners think because ultimately it is the same power bureaucracy embedded in the same institutional configuration that will be responsible for its implementation.

Lay of the land: Development authorities


NEW bits of disturbing news from the real estate or housing sector are cause for a deeper look at the manner in which the city development authorities in Pakistan are performing their basic duties. Doubts have been cast at a deal between Islamabad’s CDA and DHA involving money from the EOBI, the fund for pensioners. There is an assertion the CDA ‘illegally’ transferred its own job of developing acquired land to the DHA. More questions arise and once again we see a formula where a city development authority ends up as a mere go-between, a commission agent: it obtains land from individual owners on the promise of paying them in the shape of developed plots; it then outsources development and gets a few developed plots of its own in the bargain. Through this ingenious partnership and using its official status a city development authority can earn without much effort and without even troubling itself with its original assignment ie development. The current status of development authorities in Pakistan does not conform to the nature of work that is expected of them.

In fact, the job of a city development authority is not to facilitate real estate business but to come up with projects to meet the growing housing and similar needs of the people. Any diversion will corrupt the system, and in many ways. One consequence of a city development authority not functioning properly is evident in the mushrooming of unapproved housing schemes. Take the case of the Lahore Development Authority which is now vowing to move against illegal schemes in its jurisdiction. There are at least 175 of these societies now accused of fleecing people by selling them often cheaper but always underdeveloped plots of land, said a recent report. Obviously such a huge pile-up could not have been possible had the LDA been more vigilant and more committed to its brief of ensuring standards in an area that is open to anyone who cares to have a look.

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“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”

PERHAPS it was inevitable. An election without controversy, even an election in which the result is a foregone conclusion, is seemingly impossible here. Ever since the ECP announced the schedule for the presidential election and it dawned on the people’s representatives that polling day will fall on Ramazan 27, the PML-N has expressed its desire to see polling day brought forward. Ostensibly, the reason is the sanctity of the last days of Ramazan, during which some Muslims dedicate themselves to prayer or proceed on umrah. But there is a numbers game involved, too. While the PML-N is all but certain of comfortably electing its candidate, party legislators reluctant to be away from their hometowns in the run-up to Eid may skip the vote — potentially rendering the margin of victory for the PML-N candidate narrower than the party would like.

Having failed to convince the ECP of the absolute necessity of bringing the vote forward, the PML-N then turned to the Supreme Court. Whatever the oversight on the part of the ECP when it originally announced the election schedule, the fact of the matter is that the ECP is meant to be the ultimate authority on procedural electoral matters. Procedural matters are best not rushed and need to be carried out in a thoughtful and deliberate manner. And part of the proper procedure for any election is to allow the candidates time to canvass for votes. The Supreme Court’s intervention, then, was not a good idea to begin with. The ECP is a constitutional entity and much has been done with the 18th and 20th Amendments to guarantee its independence. Ultimately, the people’s representatives have constitutional duties and the election of the president is one of them — while having to turn up to vote on Ramazan 27 until 3pm may be inconvenient, it was by no means impossible. At the very least, no MNA or MPA could realistically claim they could not make it home in time for Eid several days later.

More worrying, however, is the implied logic of the Supreme Court order yesterday. In accepting the petitioner’s logic that to hold the presidential election on Aug 6 would violate the fundamental rights of members of the assemblies because it would force them to “give up their spiritual and religious plans”, the scope of fundamental rights on the touchstone of religion appears to have become unlimited. Argue today on religious grounds and that argument will almost automatically be accepted by the highest court in the land — that surely was not the original scheme of the Constitution.

Cutting corners: Ill-advised amnesty scheme


THIS country is legitimately criticised on the grounds that policy is formulated in a manner in which a signal is sent out that cutting corners is tolerated. Into this category must fall the amnesty granted to owners of smuggled vehicles by the last government in its final days. The scheme regularised, after payment of nominal taxes, vehicles that had either been smuggled into the country, or on which customs duty had not been paid. The scheme was declared illegal on June 19 by the Islamabad High Court through a short order. On that occasion, the court directed the FBR to confiscate vehicles registered under the scheme; later the federal tax ombudsman Shoaib Suddle said that stolen vehicles had also been cleared under it. The cancellation of the scheme was not without controversy, however, with the Lahore High Court weighing in to suspend the verdict and asking the federal government to submit a response. Now, on Monday, the IHC issued a detailed order on the case, saying that the scheme had caused losses to the tune of Rs35bn to the national exchequer. Further, Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui directed the FIA to carry out an investigation against the FBR chief under whose charge the scheme had been set up.

In all this wrangling, the issue at the heart of the matter seems in danger of being lost. This is not the only such amnesty scheme under which influential people have benefited at the cost of the state. Justice Siddiqui’s judgement pointed out that under six such amnesty schemes from 1998 to 2007, over 17,000 vehicles had been cleared. And last year, an amnesty along the same lines allowed investments to be made in the Karachi Stock Exchange without any questions being asked about the source of the funds. Such moves communicate to those who pay their taxes that there’s little point in being honest. Acknowledged, expanding the tax net is a difficult task. But can the state at least refrain from itself making exemptions as well?

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“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”

A SPATE of publicity surrounding militant cells linked to extremist groups being broken up in recent weeks, and some kind of violent reprisal was near inevitable. It seems to have come in Sukkur on Wednesday evening with the ISI offices bearing the brunt of a well-coordinated and sophisticated attack. After each such attack, part of a seemingly endless and utterly vicious cat-and-mouse game, the usual points are belaboured: there is no coherent strategy in the war against militancy; operational lessons are never truly absorbed; the enemy is cannier and more sophisticated and adaptive than given credit for; and a root-and-branch overhaul of state and society is needed if the threat of terrorism, militancy and extremism is ever to be defeated.

Yet, in the aftermath of Wednesday’s attack, there are at least two points that are worth dwelling on some more. First, the problem of security being fatally compromised in Ramazan around the time the daily fast is broken has not been addressed. The Marriott bombing in 2008 demonstrated just how deadly a breakdown of discipline among security personnel can be. Five years on, the need for extra vigilance and alertness around iftar time has clearly not been hammered into even those tasked with protecting the most likely of targets. The problem sits at the crossroads of societal trends and the decline of institutional discipline. The primacy of breaking the daily fast in a particular manner appears to have trumped even the individual’s instinct to protect his own life — and even the armed forces appear unable to drill home the message that guards must stand guard and everyone in certain high-risk locations must be extra vigilant in the minutes before and after the fast is broken. Quite how the problem can be fixed is truly a vexing question.

Second, the ISI’s lead role in not just the intelligence side of counterterrorism but also at the operational end needs to be rethought. Tracking down militants is an intelligence agency’s job; taking out militants and physically dismantling militant organisations is a job for law-enforcement agencies, particularly the police, and within the police, specialised teams handling counterterrorism responsibilities. An intelligence agency, even a military-run intelligence agency, is best shielded from a front-line role in the operational parts of counterterrorism: because it distracts from the core of the intelligence mission; because it involves too many ancillary skills; and because it makes the agency itself a core target of the militants. An overarching role for the ISI in counterterrorism is boomeranging on the organisation itself.

Timely action missing Falling rupee



RECENT declines in the value of the rupee smack of speculative moves. A vicious circle always comes into being when the rupee begins to lose value against the dollar. The declines create more demand as people anticipate further declines in days to come. The heightened demand further drives the declines. It always takes timely action from the State Bank of Pakistan to break this circle by injecting fresh supply of dollars into the money markets to stabilise the currency. This vicious circle reared its head in the days leading up to the elections, and has returned once again to haunt the money markets. The recent declines are unusual because a very large spread has opened up between the rate in the open market versus that in the interbank market. This spread is larger today than it has been in decades.

Fundamentals do not justify the rapid pace of declines that the rupee is witnessing these days. No major change has come about in the country’s stock of foreign exchange reserves, and the interbank rates are not sliding as fast as those on the open market. Some amount of uncertainty has arisen regarding the preconditions demanded by the IMF, with rumours gaining ground that a devaluation of the currency is one of these preconditions. Sentiment and rumours are easy enough to stamp out, given appropriate attention. It’s heartening that the finance minister is engaged with the problem, working the phones with currency dealers and bankers. But officials of the SBP — the first line of defence against sentiment-driven currency moves — appear to be missing in action. A ship in stormy waters needs a captain more than anything else, and given the storm of sentiment sweeping the money markets, it should be all hands on deck. Much of what is happening in the currency markets can be rectified with concerted action, and the SBP needs to emerge from its slumber sooner rather than later.

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“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”