A chilling vision (TTP's fatwa)
 

27/10/2013

SARTAJ Aziz`s recent statement on talks with the Taliban and the latter`s fatwa threatening journalists with death are a study in contrast. The TTP`s decree is dogmatic and cold-blooded; the government stance is characterised by lack of direction and pusillanimity. While the democratic government prepares to open talks, as stated by the foreign affairs` adviser, the TTP flaunts its anti-democracy credo by decreeing death for journalists who stand for democracy. By implication, all those who believe in democracy, including those preparing to talk to the militants, deserve death. The fatwa is well-timed. Reissued after a year, it informs the government that the TTP considers a wide variety of journalists deserving of death the media personnel range from those who believe in the four freedoms and differ with the Taliban on their theory and practice of Islam to those who conduct TV talk shows where the Taliban come under criticism. The Taliban have also focused their anger on women journalists. According to them, they too are deserving of death for appearing on television.

Last month, the all-party conference unanimously called for talks with the militants without naming them but the government has still not been able to come up with aframework for dialogue.

What will the talks aim at? Will they be just about ending the insurgency? Will the peace hold if the Taliban do not agree to be disbanded? According to the Constitution, only the state can have armed forces. Will the TTP having tasted power and terrorised the people and government surrender to the state and agree to enter the mainstream? Will they accept the supremacy of the Constitution? If democracy is unpalatable to them, what precisely is the alternative an unelected theocracy run by religious police? These are questions that the politicians must carefully consider as they prepare for talks.

The Taliban`s 20-page decree gives us a frightening picture of the sort of state they envisage for Pakistani citizens. And their bloody deeds since the APC was convened have indicated that they will talk only on their own terms. In issuing the fatwa and continuing their actions, the Taliban have been clear enough about the kind of dispensation they are aiming for. What has the government done so far to make it equally clear that it has a different perception of what Pakistan is and should be, and that the Taliban must accept the constitutional vision of a democratic state? The Taliban continue to be one step ahead, and the state would do well to catch up.

[B]07.11.2013[/B] [B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]To what end?: Talks with the Taliban
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THE government wanted it and the opposition has granted it, but no one has quite been able to explain any of it: talks with the Taliban are to be attempted again, but how, when and on what terms? The only thing that is clear since last weekend’s drone strike is that Hakeemullah Mehsud is dead and that the political class wants the public to believe that his killing has dealt a major blow to the talks process. Beyond that, nothing is clear. Even Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan’s claim that a three-member delegation was set to travel to the tribal areas the day Mehsud was killed remains unsubstantiated — and there is some reason to be sceptical of it. The problem is the government appears unwilling or unable to address any of the obvious problems with its dialogue strategy.

Start with the obvious. The killing of Hakeemullah Mehsud could not have in and of itself ended the possibility of dialogue, as the government appeared to suggest in the aftermath of the drone strike. For if the TTP can continue its attacks going into peace talks — set aside the attacks whose provenance is for whatever reasons disputed and that still leaves the killing of an army general in Upper Dir that was explicitly and in video evidence claimed by a branch of the TTP — then why does an attack on the TTP necessarily scuttle peace talks? If the TTP can talk about talking while still fighting, why is the political class so afraid to claim the state’s right to do the same? Surely, signalling fear and meekness so publicly to the TTP cannot possibly help the negotiating process. Or does the government intend to submit to whatever the TTP wants short of disbanding the government and scrapping the Constitution altogether?

More problematic still is if the government and pro-talks lobbies are taken at their word when they claim that the spate of attacks, since it was agreed that dialogue with the TTP will be pursued first, are the doing of anti-peace and hostile elements. If that is in fact true, then what is the point of talking to the TTP at all? For even if the TTP has kept its guns silent and temporarily put away its suicide vests, bombs and IEDS, there has still been an unacceptable level of violence in the country the past few months. So what kind of peace can the TTP guarantee anyway, even if dialogue is successful? Mystery and confusion, thy names are Pakistan, at least at present.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Deep-rooted rot: Crisis at PCB
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THE legal rigmarole being witnessed at the Pakistan Cricket Board during the past few weeks, especially after the induction of the interim chief, Najam Sethi, has left cricket affairs in the country in complete disarray. The current turbulence at the PCB, triggered mainly by the non-transparent polls held by former chairman Zaka Ashraf early this year, has grown worse by the day as Mr Sethi’s troubled sojourn continues to make headlines in national dailies. While the press is somewhat restricted to a threadbare debate on the issue because of its sub judice status, one is nevertheless compelled to note that the PCB’s woes and that of the national cricket team coincidentally date back to the imposition of the 13-year-old culture of ad hocism at the Board. The latter, apart from crippling PCB’s administrative system, has made Pakistan cricket more susceptible to court interventions over the years. The countless petitions filed and upheld of late against the incumbent chairman and over other, trivial issues have shaken the very foundations of the game of cricket in the country.

At the same time, it is also fair to say that since the year 2000, hand-picked men such as retired Lt Gen Tauqir Zia, Dr Nasim Ashraf, Shahryar Khan, Ejaz Butt, Zaka Ashraf and Najam Sethi, despite their share of good work for the game, have shown very little respect for the PCB’s constitution. It is this attitude that has led to one crisis after another. The constant upheaval at the PCB was bound to have a devastating effect on the Pakistan team. For years now, the players have not only performed below par on the field, they have also been embroiled in all sorts of nasty controversies that have tainted the image of Pakistan cricket wherever the sport is played. The overnight change in the Board’s patron, too, has left the cricketing fraternity dumbfounded. Throughout Pakistan’s 62-year cricket history, the president of Pakistan has been the PCB’s patron. Just when and how the premier was installed as the new patron of the board is a million-dollar question that has so far remained unanswered.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Pained politicians: Senate fury
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SO wounded and hurt are the protagonists, you could be forgiven for thinking they are auditioning for a walk-on part in a Bollywood flick. There are senators Raza Rabbani and Aitzaz Ahsan and co: miffed, upset, indignant, simply unable to understand why the traditions and etiquette of their sober upper house in parliament have been so churlishly disregarded by the interior minister, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. And then, there is Chaudhry Nisar, so hurt, so puzzled, so bewildered — why doesn’t the opposition recognise him for the heroic and selfless public servant that he is? Why must they harass him when all he is trying to do is his job? And caught between the two sides personifying virtue and all things right and parliamentary is the present Senate session. Inside the Senate, there are few senators and the quorum barely present. Outside the Senate is the combined opposition led by the PPP, which has decided to set up their own little faux Senate session in the great outdoors of the parliamentary premises.

If the interior minister seems a bit hot under the collar, the opposition senators led by Mr Rabbani and Mr Ahsan must be barely able to suppress their glee. For the little Senate storm in a teacup from last week has now spilled over into the saucer and may yet cause some real damage. And all because Chaudhry Nisar is so far unwilling to swallow his pride and apologise. ‘Sorry’ isn’t such a small word after all, at least for the interior minister. Is it because he sees himself as the de facto deputy prime minister? Even so, he should take a leaf out of the real prime minister’s new book: avoid unnecessary crises. And few can make a mountain out of an unparliamentary molehill as Mr Rabbani and Mr Ahsan can.

[B][U]Nov 08, 2013[/U][/B]

[COLOR="Blue"][B]Insufficient capacity: GSP Plus status for Pakistan[/B][/COLOR]

OPPORTUNITY is for those who are ready to grab it. Unfortunately, few in Pakistan are prepared to handle the huge opportunity provided by the European Union under its GSP Plus scheme, comprising generous trade concessions. The approval on Tuesday of GSP Plus status for Pakistan and nine other countries by the EU Committee on International Trade has brought us very close to preferential trade with the 27-nation bloc from January next year. The formal approval of the EU Parliament next month will allow almost 20pc of Pakistani exports to enter the EU market at zero tariff and 70pc at preferential rates.

EU trade concessions will benefit the country’s largest manufacturer and exporter, the textile and clothing industry, the most by enabling its products to compete with those of regional rivals like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which already have duty-free access to the bloc’s market. At present, our textile and clothing exports to the EU constitute more than half of the country’s total exports of almost $9.5bn to the bloc. These have the potential to more than double in a few years. Though the scheme caps annual growth in the textile and clothing imports from Pakistan at 14.5pc, the industry expects to boost its earnings from the EU by up to $1bn annually. But can it?

For many years now, the industry hasn’t invested in capacity expansion due to various reasons — growing energy shortages, high credit cost, poor security conditions, etc. A substantial part of its capacity in Punjab is inoperative because of severe gas and electricity shortages. By the time the EU trade concessions become effective, more capacity will be closed down, though temporarily, as the government plans to cut off gas supply to the industry for three months to facilitate domestic users. Indeed, a few large manufacturers have invested money in value-added textiles despite all these problems with a view to take full advantage of the GSP Plus scheme. But even they have invested in traditional, cotton-based products. The government’s skewed policies that have discouraged the use of manmade fibre and diversification of textile exports will restrict the industry’s ability to reap the full benefits of the newly acquired status. If the government wants the industry to gain maximum advantage from the concessions, it must help the manufacturers revive capacity by ensuring uninterrupted gas and electricity supply as well as cheap credit for new projects and by easing restrictions on the import of fabric and other raw materials not produced domestically, in order to encourage product diversification.

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[COLOR="blue"][B]A long wait: Cantonment elections[/B][/COLOR]

THE absence of elected governments in the 43 cantonments across the country is an anomaly and the Supreme Court has done well to rap those responsible for disenfranchising millions of citizens. In 2005, when the people elected local governments throughout Pakistan, the government maintained the status quo in the cantonments. Now again, when the schedule for LG polls has been announced, there is little indication when those living in what the Supreme Court calls “garrison areas” will be able to have local governments of their own. On Tuesday, the apex court issued a contempt notice to Defence Secretary Asif Yasin Malik for failing to honour the commitment made to the court to hold elections in cantonment areas. Local government elections were last held in the cantonments more than a decade and a half ago. Run by nominated officials, cantonment boards have not been answerable to the people, and that invariably tells on the quality of municipal services. Valid questions have also been raised regarding the financial transparency and use of funds by cantonments, whose generation of revenue is not restricted to collecting taxes for services rendered and extends to other, commercial activities. Because of the unplanned urban growth, civilian areas and zones under cantonment boards — originally meant to be distinct areas — have fused. This change, along with the need for greater transparency and accountability, demands unity of administrative controls rather than duality — an important reason why a larger debate is required on the need for so many cantonments.

Meanwhile, Mr Malik is in the dock because amendments proposed to the 2002 Cantonment Board Ordinance have not yet been framed, much less enacted and promulgated. This delay in lawmaking involves not just the defence secretary, but the ‘defence minister’ — in the absence of one, that portfolio is held by the prime minister — who must be in parliament to answer questions. So long as this legislative process is not expedited, it is doubtful if the cantonments can have elected governments.
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[COLOR="blue"][B]Lesson in politics: Musharraf freed[/B][/COLOR]

TREASON, murder, mayhem and assassinations — the brash ex-commando and former military dictator Pervez Musharraf has been accused of much since his stubborn return to Pakistan this year. But in at least one of his many bombastic predictions, Mr Musharraf has been proved right: he would eventually walk free. Bail for an accused like Mr Musharraf in the kind of cases he has been entangled in is a kind of purgatory — the cases never quite go away, but the fear of conviction will henceforth remain distant and improbable. Perhaps the game was up when no one seemed interested in probing the October 1999 coup, preferring instead to enmesh the former army chief in a slew of populist but legally weak cases. With Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif preferring to look forward not back and the born-again superior judiciary facing awkward questions about its own role in sanctifying the original coup, there was really no one else left who could nudge the prosecutor or the judge into an honest reckoning with the past in the genuine national interest.

If anything, the country has been given another lesson in the politics and hidden structures of power. Raucous and irreverent at the best of times, the political class and legal community has watched the carefully managed untangling of Mr Musharraf’s legal woes in near silence. Why? Perhaps that euphemism known as the civil-military imbalance can provide the answer. That Mr Musharraf is the first former dictator to even face charges in a court of law probably has more to do with his stubborn insistence on returning to Pakistan. But then, perhaps he could afford to be stubborn because he knew the code of loyalty would still apply and he could count on being given discreet, behind-the-scenes help from his old institution. The boys really do look after their own.

[B]09.11.2013[/B] [B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Target: Pakistan: New TTP chief[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

WITH a single appointment, the TTP has sent across a host of unwelcome messages. First, it has signalled that its campaign is not just about the Mehsuds or Waziristan or even Fata — it is a national agenda. Mullah Fazlullah’s aim always has been and still is about installing the Taliban’s version of Sharia across the country. So gone is the fig leaf of the TTP being a parochial movement that ultimately cares only about its own backyard in Fata.

Second, the TTP has signalled to the army that the military is its biggest enemy. Fazlullah took great pride in the assassination of an army general after the country’s political leadership had endorsed talks with the TTP. Of course, the militant from Swat has a long history with the Pakistan Army, one that turned decisively and irreversibly ugly in 2009. If his predecessor Hakeemullah Mehsud preferred to confuse and disorient the state with his talk of peace while simultaneously waging war, Fazlullah is a more direct kind of militant: he knows what he wants — Pakistan — and he will attack until either the state capitulates or he is eliminated, whichever comes first.

Third, a message has been sent that the fight in Pakistan is not about the US military presence in Afghanistan — though it remains to be seen if the political class and sections of the public will absorb this lesson. Mullah Fazlullah does not reside in Pakistan, he now hides out across the border in Afghanistan. If militancy in Pakistan is really a by-product of the war in Afghanistan, then why does Fazlullah prefer to attack Pakistan instead of fighting the Americans in his new backyard? There is an even simpler way to debunk the myth of the fight against militancy being a post-9/11 creation. The TNSM that was the precursor to Fazlullah’s Swat TTP chapter waged a war against the Pakistani state a decade before 9/11 even happened. And if the US killed Hakeemullah Mehsud simply to scuttle the possibility of dialogue with the TTP, it is the TTP itself that has chosen a new leader who is emphatically against talks — how does a state talk to a group that emphatically rejects the very possibility of talks? The real challenge is now for the government. Lamenting the perceived blow to the possibility of dialogue is not policy. If the concessions to the Mehsud-led TTP were problematic enough, serious thought needs to be given to validating the Fazlullah-led TTP. There is already a state — Pakistan — and there can be no room for another one.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Rushed job: LG polls
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WHILE the lawmakers must be blamed for dragging their feet on the issue of the long-overdue local government polls, their rejection of the ECP’s election schedule for three provinces is valid under the circumstances. No doubt, preparations should have been in full swing months ago, but to hurry things along in this manner now is not acceptable either. Thus we can agree with the politicians’ unanimous resolution in the National Assembly on Thursday stating that the ECP announcement was “hasty”, and the results of elections so held would not be credible. The ECP, of course, acted on the orders of the Supreme Court — which should itself have considered the impracticality of a hastily held ballot — but the dates the election body announced on Wednesday are unrealistic. The resolution reflected these observations: it lambasted both the judiciary and the ECP, charging the former with interference in political affairs and railing against the latter for trying to conduct the polls in a “non-transparent manner” instead of following “proper procedures” and giving “required time” to all sides.

In some ways, holding LG elections is an exercise more complex than preparing for national elections, and nobody is better placed to recognise this fact than the ECP. The delimitation of constituencies is not yet complete; even the stationery is not ready. Millions of ballot papers have to be printed; but the Printing Corporation of Pakistan has expressed its inability to print these within the specified time. No wonder the ECP has decided to rely on private companies — something the resolution rejects categorically. As our history shows, it is military dictators who have gone for LG polls — to pass them off as an alternative to democratic general elections. But now that elections are to be held at the grass-roots level under a democratic dispensation, the ECP is not expected to translate the judiciary’s directive in a manner that proves counterproductive. It must now reschedule the polling date which has been rejected by the people’s representatives on valid grounds.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]A stitch in time: Winter looms
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AS the cold season approaches and the long nights begin, we can expect reports of fatal winter-related accidents to come in. A main reason for such deaths is the lack of awareness about the safe use of gas heaters: gas that continues to be pumped into a room after the flame has gone out is flammable and can also cause asphyxiation. In many urban areas across the northern parts of the country, gas pressure in the pipes starts to fall as consumption increases. This year, this will in all certainty be compounded by the fact that the country is in the midst of a gas shortage, and the possibility of gas load-shedding has been raised. Where piped gas is not available or if households cannot afford it, smouldering coal in an open container is considered a simple way of keeping the room warm. Here too, the danger is obvious if the room is not well ventilated. Every year people — often young children — die because of little knowledge of safety precautions.

The recurrence of such tragedies each year can be countered, and the government still has time to come up with a public-service messages campaign. With advertisements in the mass media, particularly on television and radio, the state could remind citizens about the risks of gas- and coal-generated heat and how these fuels should be handled safely. Overwhelmingly, in Pakistan, the trend is to wait for disaster to strike and then cast about for mitigation measures. But this is an area that is easily addressed, and in fact constitutes a test of the state’s commitment to the most vulnerable of its citizens: those affected by such accidents are often the poor, and would benefit the most by a vigorous awareness-raising drive.

Dawn Editorial
 

Nov 11, 1013

[SIZE="6"][B][CENTER]Ominous signs: Dialogue with TTP[/CENTER][/B][/SIZE]

IT is the most bizarre of stalemates: the government insists that dialogue with the TTP will still be pursued while the TTP is now aggressively rejecting even the possibility of talks. And if that were not an odd enough spectacle, the government continues to apparently work on the dialogue option without being too concerned about explaining what, if any, its strategy is. Trust us, the government is essentially saying to the country – but must faith be so blind?

To add to the alarm — as if there were not enough of it already — the TTP under Mullah Fazlullah appears determined to launch a new wave of attacks across the country, but the government has evinced little interest in urgently ramping up the country’s lines of defence.

Consider just what Mullah Fazlullah and Sheikh Khalid Haqqani’s appointment as new TTP chief and deputy could mean for KP. Already showed to be so thoroughly vulnerable in recent months, the province ought to be furiously strengthening the intelligence and security apparatus that can help protect KP and its population. Instead, the PTI insists that dialogue is still the preferred and necessarily first option. And when Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan talks about discussing and coordinating the federal government’s strategy on militancy, it is dialogue with the TTP that the interior minister has in mind — not working on protecting the province from the wave of attacks the TTP has virtually guaranteed will occur in the days and weeks ahead.

By now, it’s clear that clarity is not the forte of anyone who wants to still determinedly push for dialogue with the TTP. The only clarity that exists appears to be on the TTP’s side. Perhaps, depressing as this may be, the government would be better served by taking a leaf out of the TTP’s book. For the best part of a year now, the TTP has cannily floated the idea of dialogue while simultaneously waging its war against the state. And the TTP has proved very sophisticated when it comes to manipulating public opinion and discourse. Consider the latest distinction the TTP leadership has made: the public must not be targeted deliberately in their attacks; only the state and the security apparatus will be the focus. Meanwhile, the country’s leadership still helplessly laments the lack of a consensus in Pakistani society on whether the TTP is a military problem or a political one. When one side is shrewd and ruthless and the other side weak and beset by confusion, what hope for a good outcome?
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[B][CENTER][SIZE="6"]Global effort needed: Resurgence of polio[/SIZE]
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WHILE all hope has not yet been lost to make this a polio-free world, the virus seems to be in resurgence. The global effort to eradicate the disease has spanned a couple of decades and has cost, according to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, some $10bn. Most countries have managed to bring the virus under control — except for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria where it remains endemic. Last month, the virus reappeared in Syria after a gap of 14 years and it has been found in sewage water samples in Egypt. Now with Syrian war refugees arriving in Europe, there is fear that it may reappear in the West too. As pointed out by two German doctors in the medical journal The Lancet on Friday, the vaccine used in the US and Europe offers only partial protection against the virus.

The gravity of the threat cannot be overstated, and is made particularly poignant by the fact that just a few years ago, it seemed as though the world was poised to manage complete eradication. While other countries must make appropriate efforts, Pakistan urgently needs to do more to control the spread of the virus within its own borders. There’s not just a matter of the attacks targeting polio workers, or the fact they have to work under armed escort now. Perhaps much more urgently, what we need is to develop a fully fleshed-out counter-narrative in favour of the vaccination to convince the naysayers that saving their children from the disease is very much in their own interest. The anti-polio campaign has taken several hits over recent years, including the role a fake vaccination drive played in the hunting down of Osama bin Laden (even though that did not concern the disease). Extremists have articulated and spread the conspiracy theory that vaccination is harmful, and until that narrative is countered and people’s minds are made to change, little will be achieved by the polio teams trying to convince parents to inoculate their children.
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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="6"]In the midst of violence: Building a counter-narrative[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]

GIVEN the ominous developments on the militancy front, in an atmosphere in which the country almost seems to be holding its breath in anticipation of more violence, any effort towards generating civilised discourse and sustaining positivity should be appreciated. What to cynics might seem like a fiddling-while-Rome-burns attitude, is a life-affirming exercise to others. According to a report in this paper last week, Lahore, which recently played host to the much-acclaimed children’s literature festival, is to have a world class aquarium named ‘Aqua Land’ built with public-private partnership on seven kanals of land and which takes its inspiration from a similar facility in Singapore. In Karachi too, where people have become inured to grim daily statistics in which anyone can find themselves at the wrong time in the wrong place, not all citizens are prepared to accept this as a fait accompli and let others with criminal tendencies define the city on their terms. A group of artists here are working on ‘Pursukoon Karachi’, a festival to raise awareness about how violence affects citizens’ lives and bring about a change in attitudes. A number of activities are planned, several of them involving children. One activity, a long-term one that is already under way, involves the restoration of the venerable Cantonment Station.

While a literature festival, a proposed aquarium or a peace promotion project may appear very disparate entities, they all work towards building a counter-narrative in testing times in which malevolent forces are striving to impose an exclusionary worldview on society. Such activities provide a platform for a beleaguered populace, particularly its younger, more impressionable segment, to expand their understanding of the world, what they can aspire to, and offer a glimpse of how things could be.

Tuesday, Nov 12, 2013.
 

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="6"][B][CENTER]A dangerous discourse: JI leader’s remarks[/CENTER][/B][/SIZE][/COLOR]

HARDLY any political party chief in Pakistan has been so unanimously and unreservedly condemned as the Jamaat-i-Islami emir who has bestowed the title of ‘martyr’ on the late TTP head Hakeemullah Mehsud. The latter, who was killed in a US drone strike earlier this month, led a band of conscienceless killers who have terrorised the country for years and killed thousands of Pakistanis, most of them civilians. Schools, hospitals, peace jirgas, mosques, funeral processions and bazaars have all been targeted by the Taliban. To then call Mehsud a shaheed, vesting in him all the qualities of what Muslims consider as the ultimate sacrifice in the way of faith, is to dishonour those who fell victim to acts of terrorism carried out by the TTP and its associates. Counted amongst them must be the soldiers killed by the Taliban, but whose death in the line of duty has meant little to the JI chief. His rejection of the shaheed status for these soldiers has caused ISPR to condemn his views and demand an apology. The JI might have rightly termed this response as interference in political affairs, but in its own choice of heroes in a war that has devastated the country in more than physical terms, it has clearly shown which side it stands on.

Having said that, the military establishment needs to revisit its own history of active propagation of religion. For most of Pakistan’s existence, the army has controlled the national political, security and religious discourse. It has, in fact, erected the entire structure of ‘jihad’ (most notably during the Afghan war) in its aim to defend religious ideology as opposed to focusing on what a military’s traditional role is: defending state borders. Years of looking at adversaries and politics from the lens of religion has left the security establishment mired in an ideological muddle: the men trained to raise the standard in the name of Islam are now confronting an enemy that is waving an even bigger flag as it seeks establish a theocratic state.

The time has come to separate the intertwined strands of religion and the state. This ‘martyr’ episode has caused most political parties to condemn the JI’s views — though, sadly, only after ISPR’s denunciation. They must now see the truth for what it is and understand that it is not Islam that is endangered in a country where the majority are practising Muslims; it is the very existence of Pakistan itself.

[COLOR="blue"][SIZE="6"][B][CENTER]Ignoring reality: IMF
‘satisfaction’[/CENTER][/B][/SIZE][/COLOR]

LIKE Deng Xiaoping, who opened up China to the world in the late 1970s, the IMF does not care about the colour of the cat that catches the mice. Otherwise, it would not have given a clean chit to Islamabad for “broadly on track” progress under its $6.6bn loan thus far. On the conclusion last week of its staff mission review of Pakistan’s progress on the programme prior to disbursement of the second loan tranche of $550m, the IMF said the country had “met all the quantitative performance criteria”. It was pleased with the “strong fiscal performance” as the government successfully held down budget deficit far below the target. It does not matter that the deficit target was achieved through massive cuts in federal and provincial investment spending, and the transfer of the money that belongs to cellular companies into the government’s accounts. The “implementation of structural reforms” — an exorbitant rise in electricity prices for all consumers, for example — appeared to be another cause for IMF satisfaction although little has been done to check power and gas theft and distribution losses.

The Fund was also “encouraged” by the increase in tax revenues even if it has come through higher indirect taxation mainly imposed on those who shouldn’t be paying these additional taxes. The below-the-target accumulation of foreign exchange was the only area where Islamabad was found lacking in effort. The global lender will ignore it — at least for now, in spite of a breach in the deal caused by the State Bank through its intervention in the forex market to support the fast falling rupee. In future, such violations may not be condoned. But should the government be happy with its ‘performance’? The excessive obsession of its finance management team to achieve the programme targets has led to the use of means that cause more hardship for the common people. The rich and the corrupt have again escaped unhurt. It is time the government chose the right set of policies in order to avoid slippages going forward.

[COLOR="blue"][B][CENTER]Improved performance: Hockey win[/CENTER][/B][/COLOR]

THE Pakistan hockey team sprung quite a surprise for its diminishing fan base on Sunday when it clinched the Asian Champions Trophy title in the Japanese city of Kakamigahara by beating the hosts 3-1 in the final. Though the Asian event did not put the national team’s combative abilities to real test, since leading teams such as Australia, Holland, Germany and Spain were, naturally, not competing, the win salvaged a bit of pride for them at the fag end of a rather disastrous year that saw them miss out on a spot in next year’s World Cup in The Netherlands, for the first time ever.

Mohammad Imran’s men clearly showed signs of improvement by scoring narrow victories over Malaysia and arch-rivals India in key games at the Asian event. In Sunday’s final, too, they held their nerve to make a strong comeback after hosts Japan had taken an early lead. Critics and followers of the game, however, remain sceptical about a possible revival of the game despite Sunday’s win. The repeated setbacks in the past decade and the plummeting graph of the national team in international events deter them from harbouring any false hopes. A host of former Olympians, therefore, have launched a series of protests against the incumbent Pakistan Hockey Federation regime for its failure to take the necessary measures to resurrect the game. While the emergence of talented youngsters like Hammad Butt and Shafqat Rasool bodes well for the future, a continued dearth of academies to groom upcoming hockey players has led to the decline of Pakistan hockey and the issue needs to be addressed on nothing less than a war footing. Considering that hockey’s golden era in Pakistan spanned a number of years, recovering lost ground is still possible.

[B]13.11.2013[/B] [B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Clear plan needed: Talking to the TTP[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

WHILE the federal interior minister’s comments in the National Assembly on Monday confirmed that peace talks with the TTP have been put on ice, the reason he cited — American drone strikes — for “sabotaging” the process is difficult to buy. After all, as Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan himself pointed out in his speech, while the government is pushing for dialogue, the militants aren’t exactly bending over backwards to make peace with the state. The fact is that the TTP is simply not interested in talking to the government. If there was any chance of the militants softening their rigid stance before Hakeemullah Mehsud’s death in a drone strike earlier this month, the appointment of Fazlullah as the TTP’s new supremo has caused all such hopes to evaporate: the militants have, once again, declared war on the Pakistan government and military.

The state should know better than to pin the blame for the breakdown of talks on the American drone strikes. There is no doubt that these strikes violate Pakistan’s sovereignty and should not occur unless Islamabad is on board. But, at the same time, there is near universal consensus in the country that Mehsud’s elimination was a positive development. After all, this was a man who led a band of ruthless militants who continue to terrorise the entire nation; civilians, men in uniform and government officials were targeted with equal ferocity on his watch.

True, talks with the militants have slim chances of succeeding given the Taliban’s stance; but, in keeping with the endorsement of the major political parties, the state should still make efforts to engage the TTP. However, it must be the one to lay down the terms of engagement and draw the red lines. All stakeholders must be clear about what the contours of any peace agreement will be and what is not open for debate, ie democracy and the supremacy of the Constitution. In this regard, the prime minister discussed the security situation during his visit to GHQ on Tuesday — his first after taking office. The state must realise that if the militants do not accept its terms for dialogue, preparations should begin for a security operation. There are just two alternatives at this juncture: either the government should proceed with taking the talks forward from a position of strength, or move in to neutralise the militant threat. There can be no sitting on the fence.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Ashura fears: Extra security
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WITH Ashura just days away, on Monday army troops started taking positions around Karachi to provide beefed-up security at a time when the threat level in the city is high. Officials have stressed that a security plan has been chalked out by the police and Rangers, and that army troops have been called in at the request of the provincial government — though only as a back-up force. Nevertheless, the very knowledge of their presence will be of comfort to residents in a city that fears violence in the coming days. As it is, the start of the period of mourning was stained with blood: early last week, five people of the Shia community were killed in sectarian attacks; soon afterwards, six activists of the ASWJ were killed in what appeared to be reprisal attacks. That extra effort is being made to ward off violence in Karachi is laudable, and no aspect of security should be left unaddressed.

It is crucial, however, that the provincial and central governments recognise that the risk of sectarian violence is far from restricted to Karachi. Three worshippers in two different imambargahs were killed in Gujranwala last Saturday. There are many other known flashpoints that are at risk of witnessing sect-related violence over the next few days, including Khairpur, Quetta, Jhang, Bhakkar, Hangu and Parachinar; there are risk zones in all the provinces that need enhanced protection. While security has been increased in many places, too often it turns out that sectarian and other militants are a step ahead of government authorities. The intelligence-gathering network must therefore cast its net as wide as possible, and remain alert. Further, while the political face of sectarianism is well-recognised, what is missing is a concerted crackdown on militants. Thanks to the restraint shown by various communities even when their members have been targeted, communal flare-ups have been rare. Yet the possibility of sectarian violence cannot be discounted in the face of extremist groups determined to sow the seeds of discord.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Restored to glory: State funds for monuments
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KARACHI’S Christ the King monument, located on the grounds of the imposing St Patrick’s Cathedral, has received a Sindh government grant of Rs10m for its beautification. The superbly crafted monument, which had suffered from the vagaries of time as well as pollution emanating from the unchecked urban sprawl outside the cathedral gates, received official attention after the local Christian community initiated efforts for its rehabilitation. Another positive move in this regard is the Punjab archaeology department’s decision to release Rs22m for conservation of a Sikh samadhi and a Hindu temple in Lahore. It is welcome that in a society that generally does not treasure its heritage and at a time when non-Muslims in this country face threats from zealots, the Sindh and Punjab governments have taken such steps. These moves need to be replicated across Pakistan, especially where the cultural and religious heritage of the country’s non-Muslim citizens is concerned. After all, there have been instances where monuments or the places of worship of various religious communities have been encroached upon or damaged during communal violence, or have simply fallen into disrepair.

Lahore, in particular, has various structures that could do with the state’s attention. While some Sikh monuments are well kept, thanks to the financial support of the global Sikh community, other structures, especially in the old city, are not in very good shape. Funding remains an issue and the government can perhaps work with communities to raise finances, along with offering infrastructure and expertise for preservation efforts. Such moves would send a strong message that the state respects the heritage of its non-Muslim citizens and wants to preserve it. For if Pakistan wants to be known as a pluralistic nation, it must treat the heritage of all communities as national heritage.

[B]14.11.2013[/B] [B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Same tired rhythm: Pakistan-India ties
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ISLAMABAD has noted the “cordial atmosphere” in which talks between Pakistani foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz and India’s foreign minister, Salman Khurshid, were held. Meanwhile, New Delhi sugarcoated its advice to “colleagues from across the border” regarding a meeting between Mr Aziz and leaders of India-held Kashmir’s Hurriyat Conference that has generated controversy in India. That’s about all. There was a ceremonial call by the Pakistani delegation on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. There was some material for analysis in remarks such as: “This is not a dialogue that happens in isolation, this is a dialogue that is conceptual….” Originally meant to serve as calculated criticism of the Pakistani envoy’s meeting with the Hurriyat, this statement from Mr Khurshid is tempting enough to be used in support of an inclusive process. And can there be inclusiveness without the Kashmiris? Along with this old issue, the latest parleys in New Delhi raised new questions. For instance, how does the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif intend to balance pro-bilateral trade views with the Kashmir issue?

As for solutions, the sum of this latest engagement is an overdose of old diplomatic lingo that leaves the jury confused about the verdict. Those inclined to take this lingo at face value point out two prominent factors impeding movement on progress. One, Mr Aziz was touring India after weeks of an uneasy situation along the Pakistan-India borders. And two, there was a feeling that, with a general election due in India soon, the Congress government was not fully empowered to negotiate with Pakistan.

But perhaps this old approach has to change for officials and politicians on either side to commit more strongly to the peace effort. For how long will these statements of positive intent suffice? This latest review of “bilateral relations in a constrictive and forward-looking manner” is something we are all too used to accepting as a sign of development. Dialogue, by definition, is a forward-looking and constructive option. That needs no reiteration. It is the only choice and the choice that needs to be asserted most forcefully. It serves little purpose to go on habitually hailing the holding of talks between the ‘two hostile neighbours’ as a development worth celebrating without a strong follow-up that demands both speed and purpose. If those who chase peace and coexistence as an ideal are to appear in a better light than the official negotiators on either side, they will have to do much more than simply be satisfied with these resumption reruns.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]A victory for all: LG polls
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A FEARED clash of institutions has been averted and the uncertainty about local government elections is finally over. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court finally broke the ice and agreed to a new election schedule for three provinces as suggested by the Election Commission of Pakistan. The National Assembly must be happy, and the ECP must have heaved a sigh of relief. Often, it appeared the body charged with holding the elections was caught in the crossfire between the judiciary and the legislature, both equally adamant. While the apex court insisted on elections at the earliest possible date, the lawmakers vented their spleen twice. Last week, and again on Tuesday, the National Assembly passed unanimous resolutions seeking a postponement of the elections and saying things that must have sounded quite unpalatable to some ears. Both resolutions spoke against a hurried job and pointed out that elections held in haste wouldn’t be fair and transparent and the results would be anything but credible. But Tuesday’s resolution was couched in strong language, and Leader of the Opposition Khursheed Ahmad Shah minced no words as he accused the judiciary obliquely of “stubbornness” and pleaded with it not to destroy “this institution”.

The judiciary’s concerns over the delay in holding LG elections were legitimate. During the 2008-13 era, none of the provincial governments led by the PPP, PML-N and ANP held LG polls, the debate focusing often on the need or otherwise of amending the laws made by the Musharraf government. Thus, while the superstructure had democratic trappings, elected bodies at the grass roots were missing. The situation was even worse in ‘garrison areas’, which have been without elected local bodies for 14 years. The relief now granted to the ECP must serve the cause of a transparent election well. Millions of ballot papers are to be printed and many constituencies to be delimited. This breather will also enable the political parties to gear up for LG elections, which they themselves never had the foresight to organise.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Dire straits: Cricket team’s dismal run
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THE Pakistan cricket team’s embarrassing run of defeats this year has thrown up serious questions about the future of the game in the country as the crisis deepens with each passing day. The team’s dismal run which began during the tour of South Africa in January this year, where Misbah-ul-Haq’s men bore the ignominy of a 3-0 whitewash in Test matches, has gone from bad to worse with only a couple of wins to show for nearly a dozen international matches played during this period. The unceremonious first round exit at the Champions Trophy in England in June, the humiliating Test loss against unranked Zimbabwe in Harare and the recent thumping at the hands of South Africa in the UAE have ruthlessly exposed the brittle foundations of Pakistan cricket. As opposed to the last many decades, observers of the game now appear convinced that cricketing talent in the country has all but dried up, and that no more top players are emerging from domestic cricket to provide a good back-up to the ageing brigade. While old warhorses like Younis Khan, Shahid Afridi, Mohammad Hafeez and Imran Farhat have clearly struggled to provide Pakistan with the spine that had been the hallmark of their game in the past decade, newcomers such as Asad Shafiq, Umar Amin and Nasir Jamshed have not really lived up to expectations.

There are other drawbacks too. The defensive mindset of skipper Misbah and the perplexing failure of yet another foreign coach, Dav Whatmore, have irked both fans and experts. Needless to say, the legal wrangling in the PCB has compounded the problem. Nothing short of a drastic team overhaul and good governance at the top can rescue the game from its current predicament.

[B]15.11.2013[/B] [B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Pipeline ambiguity: Honouring commitments[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

FINANCE Minister Ishaq Dar’s assertion on Wednesday that Tehran was backing out of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project by not giving Pakistan funds to proceed with the project has confused matters even more. Just a day earlier, Water and Power Minister Khawaja Asif said, during his visit to the US to attend a meeting on Pakistan’s energy needs, that completing the project was a “contractual obligation”. It is indeed. But Islamabad’s hemming and hawing — the result of US (and Saudi) pressure to not go ahead with the project and the risk of sanctions if it does — has made the Iranians justifiably impatient. Clarity is needed on the issue; that would only be fair to Iran — and the millions of Pakistanis who for some years now have been in the throes of a major energy crunch.

The fact of the matter is that, political considerations aside, the shortage of gas and electricity has become an unfortunate part of life in Pakistan, hence the state needs to grab hold of any feasible opportunity that presents itself to help it address the country’s energy woes. Oil is expensive, as is alternative energy, which also generates low output. Where viable power production is concerned, as things stand, gas and coal are our best options. Pakistan may have considerable coal reserves, but it has done little to exploit these and seems to have few intentions of doing so at the moment. Our gas reserves, meanwhile, are dwindling and this means we need to import the resource to keep the country’s economic engines running.

As Khawaja Asif pointed out in Washington, since a contract has been signed with Tehran, Islamabad is under obligation to see it through; or else, it should be ready to face the consequences which will go beyond monetary penalties and extend to a worsening of the power situation in the country. Mr Ishaq Dar has talked of Iran not wanting to finance the project. The fact remains that while Iran has completed its side of the pipeline, Pakistan has still to begin construction at its end. Asking Iran to provide finances for the pipeline comes across as a stalling tactic, and it is Pakistan that must focus on raising these. Meanwhile, the US and those in the world community who oppose the project must understand Pakistan’s predicament and not create any obstructions in the pipeline’s completion. For its part, Islamabad needs to take a clear, bold position on the pipeline and put all ambiguities about its future to rest.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]The real reason?: QWP’s departure
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THE grand promise to purge the KP government of corruption could turn out to be a mere political ruse to get rid of unwanted allies. The PTI has thrown out the two KP ministers belonging to the Qaumi Watan Party ending an uneasy and short-lived partnership. The QWP is determined to not go out quietly, and there are some who point out that the real reason for the split could be the difference of opinion on political issues rather than allegations of corruption. It may be no coincidence that the parting of ways came just a week before the PTI’s scheduled blocking of the Nato supply route. Even though the truth is difficult to get to amid a plethora of allegations and counter-allegations, opposition to the Nato blockade by a coalition partner, the QWP, could have made it awkward for the PTI-led government. Imran Khan appears to be confident he has the numbers on his side in a house in which the PTI has 53 members out of a total strength of 124. But the mathematics apart, his praise for the JI ministers following the QWP sacking is reflective of his desire to be with ideologically compatible friends.

When Imran Khan made the pledge to dismiss corrupt ministers earlier this week, questions were raised as to how he could assign the job to Chief Minister Pervez Khattak. As the head of the cabinet, Mr Khattak had been tasked to carry out an exercise that could stigmatise his government. Still, principally, Mr Khan’s statement was hailed. So much so that the more hopeful in the crowd hastily celebrated it as, even if partial, fulfilment of the PTI’s flaunted dream for change. That hope has since been tempered by the demands of realpolitik and the much-trumpeted campaign against corruption is liable to be seen as discriminatory. The PTI might ultimately move to inspect and clean up its own stables, but that’s for the future. For the moment it must brace itself for a counter-attack projecting it as an agent of no-change dressed in pious clothing.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Unclear move: Interest rate increase
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WHILE increasing the cost of borrowing by 50bps to 10pc, the State Bank of Pakistan has in its monetary policy statement also raised market expectations of a further hike of 1-2 percentage points in interest rates by the end of the present fiscal. The bank insists that higher credit rates are necessary to maintain price and exchange rate stability. It, however, remains unclear how such a meagre increase will keep prices from spiralling up or the rupee from declining. The price inflation of the last four and a half months is the direct outcome of the government’s fiscal policies — increase in electricity tariffs, the resort to excessive indirect taxation, etc and external factors such as higher global oil prices. Similarly, the weakening exchange rate is linked to the fast declining foreign exchange reserves of external official and private flows and certain prerequisites of the new $6.6bn loan from the IMF. If the higher credit cost could successfully counter inflation and strengthen the rupee, the bank would not have hesitated to push the credit price substantially to, say, 11-11.5pc. Apparently, the decision has been prompted by IMF pressure prior to the disbursement of the second loan tranche of $550m.

Whereas the positive impact of higher interest rates is unclear, the SBP decision anticipates a significant surge in public debt, an increase in fiscal pressure on the budget, a reversal, albeit slight, in the recent uptick in private credit, and decline in fixed investment, etc. The tight monetary policy hasn’t been successful in tackling inflation or exchange rate volatility in recent years. Few expect it to pay off now. The government will have to revisit its fiscal policies to deal with the challenges — slow growth, high deficit, inflation, etc. And that will entail wide-ranging tax and expenditure reforms.

[B]17.11.2013 [/B][B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Unfortunate exception: Trouble in Rawalpindi
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WHILE the 10th of Muharram passed off peacefully across the country on Friday, including in highly sensitive locations such as Karachi, Quetta and Bhakkar, Rawalpindi proved to be the exception. As these lines were being written on Saturday, the garrison town was under curfew to prevent Friday’s violence from being repeated. A number of people were killed and many more injured as a communal clash broke out when mourners marched past a mosque. Reportedly, provocative speeches were being made from the mosque, which caused the already tense situation to spiral out of control. Apart from this incident, a heavy layer of security prevented other potential tragedies, as police and security forces claimed capturing or eliminating militants in Islamabad, Karachi and Chaman. The security apparatus’ measures need to be appreciated as over the years, securing the hundreds of Ashura majalis and processions across Pakistan has become a major challenge for the state, given the rise in militancy and the fact that these religious events appear as ‘soft’ targets.

Considering the above, the unfortunate events in Rawalpindi could have been prevented had the authorities taken proper measures. Was the security and intelligence apparatus unaware of potential flashpoints in the city, especially when Rawalpindi has previously experienced violence during Muharram? The sensitivity of the day was heightened by the fact that it was a Friday; the authorities must have been aware of the potential for disturbances as mourners marched past sensitive areas. Such areas should have been secured by deploying additional troops, while the authorities should have stepped in when the first signs of trouble emerged.

What is positive, though, is the restraint shown by the Shia and Sunni communities nationwide even after news of the riots spread. Despite the ugly incident, no other major communal clash occurred in any other part of Pakistan. But the violence that occurred in Rawalpindi goes to show that communal disturbances are never far from the surface and can be stoked by the slightest provocation. The event also shows how firebrand preachers can exploit people’s religious feelings and instigate communal violence through hate speech. The state needs to keep a much keener eye on such divisive elements, and the use of microphones must be strictly monitored — something level-headed people in this country have long highlighted. The Rawalpindi disturbances should serve as a lesson in preventive law enforcement and intelligence gathering for the future so that such ugly incidents are not repeated.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Fine line: Documentation of NGOs
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TOO much in this country goes unregulated and it was in this spirit, perhaps, that in July the Economic Coordination Committee formulated a panel to review the regulatory framework of non-governmental organisations that are receiving funds from abroad. Consequently, on Wednesday the ECC approved the draft policy for the ‘Regulation of Organisations Receiving Foreign Contributions’, which will remain in place until legislation is introduced. The policy requires any NGO registered inside or outside the country to officially list itself with the economic affairs division before soliciting or utilising foreign economic assistance, including money, services and goods. Documentation about the work the NGO wishes to carry out and its area of operations will need to be submitted. These details will be vetted by the interior ministry and the provincial governments within a stipulated period. A five-year memorandum of understanding will be signed, and there are provisions about account auditing and annual reports.

Given the detail with which the draft policy requires NGO affairs to be scrutinised, there is a need to remain vigilant about balance: while regulation is, of course, imperative and urgent, the red tape should not be so complicated as to discourage NGOs from the work they do, much of which is admirable and critical. The state’s duty to keep itself apprised of where funds, services and goods are coming from and where they are being utilised must be tempered with the recognition that its own incapacities are what cause the gaps that the NGOs fill. In virtually every sphere, be it healthcare, education, vocational training or child protection, work that should be undertaken by the central and provincial authorities would go undone if NGOs did not intervene. It is true that there have been cases where segments of this sector have been accused of corruption and nepotism; yet the government too has on occasion been guilty of using regulatory mechanisms as a tool of harassment. The vetting authorities will have a fine line to tread in the case of NGOs.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Laws need revision: Saudi crackdown
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BESIDES being a humanitarian issue, Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on illegal immigrants has already resulted in economic consequences for the kingdom. While thousands of migrant workers have turned themselves in, nearly 40,000 have been arrested or gone into hiding. The impact on the economy is to be seen in the rise in the cost of services and the closure of a large number of businesses, shopping centres, gas stations and restaurants, because they were staffed mostly by expatriate workers. Nearly 20,000 schools are without janitors, and garbage is piling high. About 40pc of construction firms have stopped work since it was the immigrants who had provided the muscle for the physically tough jobs that Saudis shun.

The kingdom’s illegal migration phenomenon is decades old, and is built into the system because of the inadequacy of Saudi labour laws. Most workers, especially at the lower rung, are little better than slaves — their passports remain with their employers, they cannot leave the country on their own nor change jobs, thus forcing many to work illegally. There is some justification for the government’s concerns, because jobless immigrants also create social problems that evoke the ire even of Saudi citizens. However, their mass deportation is not going to help the government or Saudi economy. The kingdom, no doubt, has a high level of unemployment among Saudis. But the migrant workers’ exit is unlikely to solve the problem because Saudis, enjoying healthcare benefits and subsidised electricity and petrol, do not take up menial jobs. What is needed is a revision of Saudi labour laws to make them a little less harsh for migrant labour the oil-rich kingdom cannot do without. As an area specialist put it, the immigrant workers’ blood was in “the stones and buildings” of the kingdom.