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  #1551  
Old Wednesday, October 26, 2016
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Default October 26th, 2016

Attack on police academy


THE death toll is shocking as is the seeming ease with which militants were able to attack a police training academy outside Quetta city; our thoughts must turn to the injured and the families of those who died. The first line of defence for much of Pakistan are this country’s police forces — often targeted, unduly vulnerable and unconscionably under-resourced across most of the country. Particularly in Balochistan, where the police are institutionally marginalised in much of the province and where other security forces dominate, the plight of the law enforcers was already grim. Care then should be taken to help the larger police community recover from this devastating attack and protect morale. More than seven years since the Manawan Police Academy attack in Lahore, the failure to protect law enforcers in their own training camps is a grim testament to the state’s failure to improve its institutional capacities.

Necessary also is a familiar, but important, set of questions to be asked of the security establishment when it comes to the safety of Quetta. After more than a decade of near-total control of the security policy in the province, all that seems to have changed is who is automatically blamed for particular acts of violence. Where earlier Baloch separatists were principally blamed, now alleged Indian- and Afghan-sponsored militants are reflexively accused. To be sure, Balochistan remains a hotbed of armed Baloch dissidents and hostile foreign interests. It is not a figment of a febrile imagination that outside elements continue to not only support some Baloch insurgents, but also seek to destabilise Pakistan in a murky tit-for-tat strategy. However, none of that changes the reality that much of Balochistan is effectively a vast no-go area for most Pakistanis and that security strategies are unable to establish normality, let alone peace, in the province. Part of the problem is surely the knee-jerk reaction to major incidents, typified yesterday by yet another high-level security meeting in Quetta, where once again old talking points appear to have been rehashed.

Finally, with competing claims of responsibility by IS and a faction of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi for the attack, it is time to acknowledge that it perhaps does not matter which splinter or sub-group was the architect of the attack. Zero tolerance is the only way ahead — a policy both in principle and in practice when it comes to taking on militant groups. While every attack does demand a detailed inquiry, it should also solidify the state’s resolve to dismantle all militant groups. Blaming sanctuaries across the border or even foreign support is a political game when strong action is called for. The counter-insurgency successes in Fata are a symbol of what is possible when commitment is total and resolve unshakeable. Militants want to terrorise the public and make the state tremble; it is time the tables were emphatically turned.

Curbs on MQM


AS various factions and spin-offs of the MQM struggle to portray themselves as the ‘genuine’ representatives of urban Sindh, it is clear the security establishment is in no mood to tolerate what is being called ‘MQM-London’, better known as the pro-Altaf Hussain faction. On Saturday, the Rangers hauled away three Karachi-based leaders of the pro-Altaf group from the city’s press club, scuttling plans by the party to address a news conference. The paramilitaries had taken up positions outside the Karachi Press Club, sealing approaches to the building. On Oct 15, the Rangers were also present outside the KPC at an MQM-London press talk; on that occasion, the men in uniform allowed the event to go ahead, though they kept a close eye on visitors to the KPC. Such tactics are unacceptable; in fact restrictions such as these on activities within the KPC were not even used during Gen Ziaul Haq’s dictatorship. On Sunday, Sindh government officials said the three MQM leaders were being held for 30 days under the Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance as “their activities were prejudicial to the public peace and order”. Pro-Altaf cadres have also been picked up from Hyderabad while some of the faction’s offices have been demolished by the authorities.

These actions of the state are unacceptable primarily because it is undemocratic to disallow a political party from carrying out lawful activities, such as holding press talks or taking out rallies. The fact is that there is as yet no ban on MQM-London. So why the restrictions? In fact, a Sindh High Court bench, in response to a petition, called on law enforcers to “act strictly in accordance with the law” in the matter of the arrest of another pro-Altaf leader. Indeed, Altaf Hussain’s Aug 22 speech may well have crossed the boundaries of legitimate free expression — as is often enough witnessed in the MQM supremo’s case — while the party’s history of using violence as a political tool is quite well known. Yet the authorities, instead of crushing the MQM’s political activities, need to bring evidence of wrongdoing to court. Using high-handed tactics to clamp down on the pro-Altaf faction will only strengthen its narrative of victimhood and may alienate ordinary supporters from the state. The MQM should be allowed to carry out legitimate political activities, while any evidence of illegality must be produced in court. Come election time, the people of Karachi can decide who best represents them.

Blaming taxpayers


THE reason given for the low tax base of the country by the prime minister’s special assistant for revenue has to be rejected outright. According to Mr Haroon Akhtar, people themselves are to blame for the state’s lax revenue effort because there is widespread evasion, the self-assessment scheme is misused and tax notices are seen as ‘harassment’. It is true that there is a culture and mindset of tax evasion in this country, and the deep mistrust that exists between citizens and the state greatly complicates the task of broadening the tax base. But the tax effort is not a voluntary programme in any country, and governments are reasonably expected to advance the revenue interest of the state in spite of stiff opposition from vested interests in addition to the nimble efforts of the citizenry to evade and subvert the effort.

Mr Akhtar was probably trying to tell his audience of business leaders to be more forthcoming about their tax affairs, and complain a little less. But his tactless phrasing caused the message to miss its mark. Indeed, people are reluctant to pay taxes, but the real problem is the non-enforcement of tax rules. The FBR is seen as corrupt, and a culture of periodic amnesties and ad hoc exemptions has helped create the negative attitude Mr Akhtar referred to. The PML-N itself has contributed to the problem by politicising the tax efforts of previous governments, and then walking down the same path, bypassing parliament to implement key decisions and offering amnesties of its own once in power. The only reason Mr Akhtar came to the conference with no vision beyond a simple blame game is because his own party is at a loss on how to broaden the country’s tax base. This is the main reason why he had little option but to assign blame. Recourse to such language and narratives sets into motion a destructive series of exchanges. Surely, people in official positions ought to exercise greater care.

Published in Dawn October 26th, 2016
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Old Thursday, October 27, 2016
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Default October 27th, 2016

IMF chief’s words


SHE came, she spoke, she left. In her two-day visit, the IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, stayed on a single message: Pakistan has earned a “moment of opportunity” with stabilisation measures taken over the past three years under the IMF programme, but the real work of reforming the economy must now begin. She pointed to improvements in the fiscal accounts and reserves as achievements of the programme, while underlining that more work lay ahead for broadening the tax base, making growth more inclusive, and boosting competitiveness to raise exports. She peppered her speeches with quotes from the Quaid and Iqbal to urge the country’s leadership to look inward for the drivers of its future growth.

But there was an illusory halo that hung over her pronouncements. For one, the environment surrounding her visit provided stark examples of why Pakistan has been unable to focus on reforming its economy. The cutthroat nature of its politics formed the backdrop to her visit as the airwaves crackled with tension over an impending ‘shutdown’ of the capital by the PTI, while a massive terrorist attack in Quetta a day after her arrival underlined Pakistan’s enduring security challenges. The list of achievements the IMF chief listed under the programme also appeared to be selectively drawn. Yes, the macroeconomic scenario has stabilised since 2013, but the original programme promised a lot more. When the programme was originally approved by the board in September 2013, the IMF’s deputy managing director had himself said that “short-term macroeconomic measures must be complemented by significant structural and governance reforms” under the programme, pointing to the power sector as a crucial target of these reforms, and adding that “the trade regime needs to be liberalised, public-sector enterprises need to be restructured or privatised, and the business climate needs to be improved.”

Yet at the end of the programme, Ms Lagarde could only present the “short-term macroeconomic stabilisation” measures as the signature achievement of the programme, which, according to her, must now serve as the “foundation” upon which to undertake the structural reforms that we were told at the outset were a complementary part of the stabilisation effort. Fact is, there is far less to applaud at the end of this programme than she tried to claim. Moreover, the IMF chief’s remarks betrayed a paper-thin grasp of Pakistan’s realities and details of the programme and its implementation. She often made mistakes in presenting data or invoking historical precedents. Her words during the visit, in fact, left a sense that the IMF has given up on urging reform, hewing instead to a minimalist agenda of ensuring the country’s creditworthiness to its domestic and, more importantly, its international creditors. And on that front, the programme just concluded can indeed claim its biggest success.

Gender gap index


NOW in its eleventh year, the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2016 ranks 144 countries on the gap between women and men based on health, education, economic and political indicators. The theory behind ranking countries on the gender inequality index is to understand whether resources and opportunities are being equitably distributed. Shockingly, Pakistan is ranked 143 out of 144 countries, holding the scorecard for the worst-performing state in South Asia. Indeed, the ranking is a troubling reminder of the poor state of gender equality in the country and in contrast to the general perception that Pakistani women are making progress in various sectors, such as education and political participation, and starting to benefit from legislation that protects their rights. So why has the WEF given Pakistan a poor scorecard? How is the term ‘gender gap’ explained? And how was the data collected and the final scores calculated given that certain societies are more closed than others when it comes to women’s lives? For example, given the disenabling environment for gender empowerment in Saudi Arabia and war-torn Syria, both are surprisingly ranked ahead of Pakistan. Consider the situation in Saudi Arabia where women face discriminatory policies that curb their basic rights and require them to obtain permission from a male guardian to work, study and travel. In contrast, Pakistani women have made strides in parliamentary politics and lawmaking, and there has been progress on closing the education enrolment gender gap as well. Much territory still needs to be traversed, of course, but there is little doubt that women here are slowly moving towards shaping the future of education, employment and politics.

Meanwhile, the variables used to create the index are from publicly available data indicators from international organisations and from a perception survey conducted by the WEF. Unfortunately, data collection may not always reflect the reality. Take the example of the World Press Freedom Index that has often accorded Pakistan a weak scorecard based on the increasing numbers of journalists intimidated and attacked in the country. More than anything, the fact that the media in Pakistan is attacked for doing its job demonstrates its independence. In the same way, perhaps the type of sample used for Pakistan in the gender report was problematic and the methodology in the perception survey imperfect. After all, many would agree that we are witnessing slow but steady progress towards an enabling environment for Pakistani women.

Coarse language


HAD tongues been horses, perhaps people could have wished for the adventure riders to depart from the scene at a gallop. But the fact is that the PML-N and the PTI, along with their respective allies, are in the midst of a vicious power game, with venomous words emanating from their mouths. Unfortunately, no matter how nauseating the fare, ordinary folk have no choice but to wait until the shrill cries and obscene taunts stop. Indeed, the verbal barbs have begun much before the actual showdown — Nov 2, when Imran Khan will attempt a lockdown of the capital is still some days away. But by some estimates, the politicians have already crossed all limits set by the standards of the times. All caution has been thrown to the wind while the rivals have been flung before imaginary hungry wolves for summary disposal.

It is quite an even match, though the advice was for the government to not be provoked and maintain some semblance of decency. The days of ‘suo motu’ are long gone, and today if the PTI chief utters the second half of the term he is referring to the person of his chief political opponent. Likewise, this is not the moment for the defence minister to lecture the parliament about sharm and haya — two words so intrinsically woven in our culture that we proudly claim they have no equivalent in the English language. Instead, a clearly provoked minister jumped at the opportunity of linking blood-soaked Quetta with a hostile enemy and Imran Khan’s protest movement, making it appear as a scheme against his government. And these are some of the instances in the quotable category — there are far too many expressions flying around that are unprintable, even if they are being telecast. While one can hardly expect the language of diplomacy from bitter foes, the two sides’ failure to retain even a modicum of civility shows that they have not understood the values of maturity and sagacity that democracy teaches.

Published in Dawn October 27th, 2016
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Old Saturday, October 29, 2016
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Default October 28th, 2016

Pak-India tensions


A FRESH set of crises has caused Pakistan-India relations — in the doldrums after last month’s Uri attack — to plunge to even lower depths. On Thursday, India decided to expel a staffer of the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi for “espionage activities” after the individual had been detained by the Indian law-enforcement authorities. Delhi police claimed the Pakistani diplomat had been in possession of sensitive documents. The Foreign Office has rejected the Indian allegations as “false and unsubstantiated”, adding that New Delhi’s actions violate the protocols of the Vienna Convention. Meanwhile, the situation on the Working Boundary continues to remain tense, as an exchange of fire between both countries’ security forces was also reported on Thursday. A day earlier, two Pakistani civilians were killed after the Indian Border Security Force resorted to mortar shelling. At least four people have been killed in the exchange of fire on the Pakistani side since Monday, while the military claims a number of Indian soldiers died in retaliatory fire. Similar tensions were witnessed last week along the Line of Control.

Considering the atmosphere currently prevailing in the subcontinent, both Islamabad and New Delhi must handle both crises with care and sagacity. On the diplomatic front, the incident concerning the Pakistani diplomat in Delhi should not be allowed to escalate into a nasty exchange of rhetoric or result in tit-for-tat moves. Whatever concerns either side has should be communicated through diplomatic channels and resolved. On the military front, there should be immediate de-escalation and stoppage of cross-border fire. Apart from the tragic loss of life, normal routines in the affected areas have been severely disrupted due to the hostilities. As reported in this paper, residents of border areas have had to move to safer locations in other parts of Punjab, while there have also been school closures in Sialkot district. While the government may be preoccupied with the political storm making its way towards Islamabad, it needs to remain alert and handle growing tensions with India with statesmanship and resolve. Normalisation and peace between Pakistan and India may appear to be a distant dream at this juncture; however, the least both states can do is to not ratchet up levels of animosity. This can be done by keeping the diplomatic and military channels of communication open between both sides, and avoiding aggressive public posturing and statements.

Karachi LG mess


THE tussle over the implementation of the local government system in Karachi, which is, in the opinion of many, the country’s most chaotic and poorly managed city, appears to have attained ridiculous proportions. From the provincial government appropriating areas of crucial civic work, including waste management and garbage disposal, to the continuing incarceration of Mayor Waseem Akhtar, there seems to be little appreciation in the corridors of power for the immediate task at hand: sorting out the city’s devastated civic and infrastructural affairs. To the contrary, it appears that active measures are being taken to further complicate the situation; the latest move came on Wednesday when, following a request from the Sindh government, the bank accounts of all municipalities were frozen. The institutions affected range from the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation to the union councils, which means that at all levels of local governance, work will be severely impeded and salaries suspended. The Sindh government says that this was done because of the realisation that the entire LG system had changed in 2010. No doubt, a rationalisation process may indeed be required; nevertheless, it is odd that appreciating this reality has come years after the change, and that the administration’s response to the challenge was then initiated through the extreme step of freezing accounts with no contingency plan in place.

Such a dog-in-the-manger attitude shown by the party that has run Sindh for many years is inexplicable. In any case, it is not the PPP’s job to manage civic affairs — that is the mandate of the local government. Great hopes were pinned on the recently inducted chief minister, who took charge with lofty promises of change and re-energising the system; unfortunately, for all his good intentions, the city remains a mess. One wonders if the motives behind the current move regarding the implementation of the LG system, dominated by the MQM, are political. If so, Karachi is being held hostage for the basest of reasons.

Ignoring the larger threat


Amidst growing concern for the democratic order and increasingly menacing rhetoric by the PTI, and elements within the PML-N too, have come sensible directives from the Islamabad High Court.

The PTI is to hold its Nov 2 rally in an authorised space in Islamabad, while the government is forbidden from blocking roads and taking extreme counter-measures to prevent the PTI from holding its rally — counter-measures that would deprive the public from its right to free movement.

Instantly, however, the PTI rejected the judicial attempt at bringing order to the party’s plans and Imran Khan has vowed to go ahead and enforce a so-called lockdown of the federal capital. Extraordinarily, the political slugfest between the PTI and PML-N appears to have already accelerated to the point where orders by the superior judiciary itself are regarded as a mere distraction.

As if to underscore the increasingly bare-knuckled nature of the fight, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Mr Khan have engaged each other in a bitter political argument over alleged corruption by the PML-N, with Mr Sharif vowing to move the courts against the PTI supremo on grounds of defamation.

The vicious, personal barbs hearken back to a dark period in this country’s political history: in the 1990s the endless, bitter squabbling between the PML-N and the PPP eventually led to the wrapping up of the democratic order, following widespread public disillusionment with both parties. Mr Khan was only a political neophyte then, his PTI having been formed in the latter half of the 1990s. But the Sharif family ought to know better.

Whatever Mr Khan’s provocations and unbridled ambitions, it is undeniable that had Prime Minister Sharif accepted an independent and thorough probe of the first family’s wealth and assets following the revelations in the Panama Papers, the country would not be on the edge of a precipice today.

While neither side appears to be in a mood to back down, it is perhaps important to reiterate what is at stake. The 1990s too was a repetition of an earlier period in this country’s history.

Indeed, if there is one constant in Pakistan’s political history it is that when opposition politicians and the civilian leadership engage in unbridled sparring, it is the anti-democratic forces that ultimately triumph. Or as the inimitable Asma Jahangir has warned, politicians should be careful to not saw off the very branch of the tree that they are sitting on.

An energised political landscape contesting issues of public importance and suggesting different policies is one thing. But a divided, bitter polity, led by ego-driven and vengeful politicians, is a short hop away from the ultimate breakdown.

Imran Khan wants to be a first-time prime minister, while Nawaz Sharif wants to be an unprecedented fourth-term prime minister — but at what cost to the democratic system?

Published in Dawn, October 28th, 2016
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Old Saturday, October 29, 2016
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Default October 29th, 2016

Down the spiral, again


ALL the wrong memories are being stoked. When police barged in on a PTI youth convention on Thursday, trying to make arrests, the government that ordered them to do so was repeating the mistakes of two years ago.

But when they followed up that action with the tear-gassing and violence in Rawalpindi yesterday, they compounded the folly, stirring memories of 2014 when police brutality led to the deaths of 14 people in Model Town, Lahore, and created a furore that has lingered to the present day.

Yet, today the PML-N appears hell-bent on repeating its mistakes. Protesters are once more being pursued with strong-arm tactics in a futile attempt to stall the PTI protest planned for Nov 2, and containers loaded with export consignments, are being impounded to be used as hindrances for the caravans that are set to travel up the roads connecting Lahore with Islamabad — roads ironically that Nawaz Sharif proudly presents as emblems of his successful rule.

For his part, Imran Khan is vitiating the atmosphere with his incendiary rhetoric. It is true that protesting against corruption is his right, and that the Panama Papers need to be investigated.

But the kind of firebrand language he is using does nothing more than poison the air and make any sort of engagement or negotiation impossible. In fact, there is good reason for the government’s insecurity, given the memories of the last dharna.

At that time too, Mr Khan had marched to Islamabad saying he was coming for a ‘peaceful protest’, but then proceeded to storm the red zone in the capital, with mobs from the PTI and PAT attacking parliament and the PTV buildings. He may claim that his followers engaged in no violence, but that is too fine a hair to split in the midst of such rancour.

This time around, when he says once again that his intentions are peaceful, there are grounds to be sceptical, especially given the fiery rhetoric he and his supporters are using to exhort people to join them.

Both parties need to calm down. Pakistan’s is still a fledgling democracy which needs to be strengthened in the face of all challenges; the ship of state should not be rocked beyond a certain point.

Anti-democratic forces are watching carefully from the sidelines, and it is always they who have benefited from turmoil in the political space. Protest is a right, but spreading lawlessness is not. Supporters of the PTI should recall that protest tactics like shutting down cities used to be something they disliked when others, such as the MQM, resorted to them.

Likewise, while the state has a right to take security precautions, it must realise that brute force of the sort seen over the last few days is counterproductive to maintaining peace.

Nepra vs power ministry


TENSION is crackling between Nepra and the Ministry of Water and Power. The regulator has refused to grant the ministry’s requests for a higher tariff on some occasions and called into question its investment plan for transmission and distribution system upgrades. It has doubted its promise to eliminate load-shedding by 2018 and demanded greater reductions in the power tariff in light of the falling oil prices which the ministry has refused to notify. More recently, it has asked why power dispatch from inefficient plants continues while more efficient plants are shut down. The latest salvo was fired in an open hearing when the Nepra chief once again questioned the merit order list of power plants to be kept running, repeating the complaint that inefficient plants were being operated while better ones were shut down, and much generation capacity lay idle while load-shedding was imposed upon the citizenry.

It is high time clarity was obtained on this matter. What is animating Nepra, and can the ministry issue a clear statement responding to the regulator’s allegation? There is an insidious undertone to the charges which should be addressed as quickly as possible. For its part, can Nepra explain why it argues in one year that the government’s generation plans are insufficient to meet its own targets, and the next year accepts that the generation targets can be met but there is insufficient transmission capacity to manage the augmented load? Changing the nature of its claims from one year to the next gives the impression that the regulator’s complaints are lacking in depth, perhaps even frivolous. The power sector is seeing some of the largest investments in Pakistan these days, and it is important that the environment in which this is happening is free from needless controversy. Greater transparency is the best way forward, and although the power sector maintains a strong disclosure regime, with project details and tariff determinations all posted on Nepra’s website, if there are so many complaints from the regulator then clearly more is needed. Perhaps the ministry ought to seriously consider a proposal to make some of the information from its own dashboard, which shows total generation from each individual plant in the country in real time, publicly available online. And an explanation of the merit order list for power plants would also help dispel the implications of Nepra’s complaint.

Sharbat Gula arrested


IN June 1985, an arresting image of a green-eyed young Afghan girl became the subject of one of the most iconic National Geographic covers of all time. Photographed by Steve McCurry at a refugee camp in Peshawar, Sharbat Gula was only 12 years old when she made the magazine’s cover. Her unwavering stare, a mix of suffering and resilience, symbolised Afghanistan’s war turmoil. Her arrest this week in Peshawar, on charges of fraudulently obtaining a Pakistani national identity card, comes as authorities intensify their crackdown on illegal Afghan refugees. If convicted, she can face 14 years in prison and a hefty fine. Legally, her arrest is justified because information was falsified for the purposes of an identity card. Nonetheless, certain factors must be considered: firstly, in tribal communities Afghan women are unaware of decisions taken on their behalf. And, as a poor widow in her forties, her personal circumstances might not have warranted her return to war-torn Afghanistan. That Sharbat Gula’s plight reflects a bigger problem must be considered as the government pushes to repatriate Afghan refugees despite the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan. It makes sense then that most refugees are reluctant to return to a country battered by relentless cycles of war and chaos. After all, Afghans have become the second-largest group seeking asylum in Europe after Syrians.

Meanwhile, with only about 1.5m of the 2.5m Afghan refugees in Pakistan registered, the rest live in fear of arrest and deportation. Desperate, they resort to bribing officials for false identity cards — and Sharbat Gula’s family may have done the same. Even if on humanitarian grounds alone, the government must release her. Yes, one could argue why she should be treated as an exception when hundreds share her fate. If only because her life has been hard and sad, she deserves a country to call her home. Her arrest — three decades after that haunting first photograph was taken — is another reminder that the suffering of Afghan people must never be forgotten.


Published in Dawn, October 29th, 2016
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Default October 30th, 2016

Plea for sanity


IN these dangerous, overheated times, it is a plea as much as advice: the leaders of this great and proud nation need to step back from the edge of the abyss. No one appears willing to listen, not the civilians, either in government or the opposition, and not the military. But each of them must be reminded, and ought to remind themselves, why they hold public office, or are entrusted with the responsibility of being the elected representatives of the people. This country’s destiny and the success of its people depend on a democratic and constitutional order based on strong, representative institutions and the rule of law. Those goals, the fundamental reason for the existence of the state, are bigger and more important than the fate and peccadilloes of the PML-N, the PTI or indeed any given era of military leadership. But the more the current national leadership pledges to put ‘Pakistan first’ the more it becomes apparent that it is really ‘me first’ — a play for power at the expense of the good of the people and the republic.

The intensifying battle between the PTI and the PML-N is particularly dismaying because it has all the hallmarks of bygone eras, dark periods in this country’s history that the most sustained democratic transition was supposed to have left behind. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is a vastly experienced politician, but seems unable to bury a personal tendency to allow political crises to escalate until they threaten to reach unmanageable proportions. The Panama Papers could have been a watershed moment, a first family offering itself up for unprecedented financial scrutiny. Instead, Mr Sharif opted to resort to political sloganeering. Even now, in this moment of democratic peril, the prime minister and his PML-N appear more interested in cracking down on legitimate political dissent than restoring the legitimacy of the mandate the PML-N received in 2013.

Lamentable as the PML-N’s attitude is, the PTI’s wilfulness is of historically tragic proportions. There are 19 months left until the term of the current parliament expires and a general election has to be held. The government’s intransigence and the PTI’s principled opposition means the PTI has a realistic opportunity to compete for power at the next election. If it does win in 2018, the PTI could expect to rule until 2023 — and the PML-N’s stance on democratic continuity means it can be expected to remain in opposition without trying to overthrow a democratically elected government. Clearly, there are no guarantees for the PTI — as indeed there are none that the present course of agitation will lead to ultimate success. But the PTI and Imran Khan should consider what kind of Pakistan they want to rule over. A democracy gaining in strength, or a polity wracked by bitter divisions and the spectre of extra-constitutional forces willing to intervene?

Schizophrenia verdict


THE Supreme Court recently ruled that schizophrenia is a ‘recoverable’ disease that fails to qualify as a mental health disorder under existing laws, thereby, clearing the path to execute Imdad Ali, a 50-year-old mentally ill prisoner. In response, his wife, Safia Bano sought a stay order, filing a review petition with the court on Oct 28. Not only is this verdict controversial and inhumane, it also sets a dangerous precedent. Fundamentally, it notes mentally ill individuals are not precluded from the death penalty. Moreover, it represents the cruelty that embodies the death penalty — a form of punishment that this newspaper does not endorse. And, it puts at risk the lives of other mentally ill death-row prisoners, including Khizer Hayat (he suffers from schizophrenia and has spent 17 years in prison). More shocking is the judiciary’s inability to recognise schizophrenia as a genetically determined illness, severe and incurable as extensive medical evidence has proven. Consider the response by the British Pakistani Psychiatrists Association in this newspaper. Explaining schizophrenia as a “remitting, relapsing illness”, they recommend evaluating mentally ill offenders, especially their capacity to distinguish between right and wrong at the time of committing the crime.

Even though certified by doctors as schizophrenic, Ali’s medical reports presented as evidence were dismissed by the court. Why? If the reports were not deemed credible, an independent psychiatric evaluation panel should have been appointed. Also, why did the jail authorities fail to approach the home department to move Ali to a hospital for treatment? If an individual has schizophrenia, he must be treated to determine if the illness is ‘recoverable’ or not. Because the system is rigged against the poorer mentally ill prisoners, their cases hinge on inept state prosecutors and jail authorities — again, underscoring the need for reforming the criminal justice system. Also, executing mentally disabled prisoners is a misinterpretation of medical jurisprudence and in conflict with international covenants — the ICCPR included. With Pakistan’s UN human rights review due in July 2017, the government must improve its civil and political rights record. Executions of the mentally ill do not serve any purpose other than tarnish our rights record. And because the court has failed to acknowledge that punishing a mentally ill offender serves no criminal justice aims, it is imperative that Imdad Ali be given a presidential pardon. In doing so, the government would be showing its commitment to upholding human rights and dignity.

Pensioner’s suicide


ONE can only imagine what it would take for an elderly man to commit suicide. The recent case of one such individual, who had been making the rounds of Karachi’s Civic Centre to obtain pension that he had reportedly not been paid for 13 months, leaves one reeling with anger. His family says he had been making repeated trips to collect what was his due, and the staff that he spoke to made fun of him and his efforts to collect his pension. The resulting depression, according to his family, led him to take the extreme step of jumping off the building, and not the lack of payment. The explanations given by KMC, where the man worked all his life and from where he expected his pension, and by Karachi’s deputy mayor, somehow do not ring true. They claim that pension cheques worth Rs740m “have been readied” and will be disbursed once the Sindh government releases the funds.

Whatever amount may be ready, the fact of the matter is that if the pensioner had to suffer humiliation at the hands of KMC employees while visiting the office to ask for updates on his dues, then it just shows the level of dehumanisation that prevails in that organisation. Pensioners are one of the most vulnerable members of our society, and the sad part is that many governments, federal and provincial, balance their accounts on the backs of these aged people. Pensions are amongst the first payments to be blocked in the event of shortage of funds. The callousness that this category of citizens must suffer for each cheque is enough to break one’s heart. For pensioners, that cheque means the world because it is their own money, and gives them a sense of worth and independence. Karachi’s deputy mayor should do all in his power to determine whether or not the retired KMC worker faced humiliation, and ensure that others are not made to suffer similarly in the future.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2016
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Default October 31st, 2016

The cost of protests


It is an easy argument to make either way, but people must make up their minds about it one way or the other. While protests remain a democratic right, the costs can be high.

Indeed, the cost of the PTI protests to the country and the economy is very large, if measured in terms of the erosion of confidence, the muddying of the Pakistan narrative for foreign and domestic investors, and the weakening of the state’s controls over the economy and its ability to discharge its regulatory and oversight duties.

There may not be an immediate impact in terms of loss of output or damage to infrastructure, but the cost to the underlying pillars upon which a market economy operates can be immeasurable. However, some of these costs are avoidable.

Already, the state has impounded containers laden with export consignments to use as obstacles in the path of the protest caravans in a repeat of what was done two years ago when the same scenario played itself out. Needless to say, this tactic does incalculable harm to our exports that are already suffering.

The stock market has lost more than 1,500 points since hitting its historic high this month, an indicator of the storms of uncertainty unleashed in the investor community.

The former is an example of an avoidable cost, while the latter represents an enduring loss whose effects will linger long after the affair is over and the market has regained its momentum, because the damage done to investor sentiment in manufacturing will take far longer to repair.

Those participating in the protests may ask: what are the costs of not protesting? This is a fair question, because business as usual is also marred by its many dysfunctions, primarily poor governance, a bad security environment, and corruption.

But, at the same time, it would be naïve for protesters to think that should they succeed in their goals, the dysfunctions will disappear. The path to repairing Pakistan’s many dysfunctions is a long one, and progress on that road can only be gradual.

The first thing to be fixed is the political system, more specifically the path to power and the means through which power is legitimised. The more we politicise that, the more we undermine the very tools with which any course correction can be undertaken.

To fix the economy, the ship of state must be steady and resting on an even keel, and it must be clear to all contestants in the political arena that there is only one path to power — and that leads through the ballot box. Any loosening of this principle weakens the ability of the state to address its own dysfunctions regardless of the intentions of the rulers.

These protests exact a cost from the economy that outweighs any benefits that the protest leadership promises.


Houthi missile attack


THE Saudi-Houthi conflict took a dangerous turn as reports emerged on Friday that the Yemeni rebel group had fired a missile deep inside the kingdom. Accounts of the missile’s intended target vary: the Saudis insist the attack was aimed at the holy city of Makkah, while the Houthis say it was targeted at Jeddah’s airport, some distance from Islam’s holiest site. The way the incident is being spun risks recasting the Yemeni conflict in overtly sectarian terms, much like the Syrian civil war is portrayed. The Saudis and most of their Gulf allies have seized the opportunity to question the faith and motives of the Zaydi Shia Houthis, and their alleged Iranian backers. The Houthis dismiss this as “political nonsense” and say they had no intention of targeting Makkah. It is, of course, difficult to believe that any Muslim group — regardless of the animosity it may bear towards Saudi Arabia — would consciously target Makkah, simply because of the revulsion such an act would cause across the Muslim world. The Yemeni rebels have, indeed, in response to Saudi military intervention, conducted cross-border attacks, including a salvo earlier this month targeting a Saudi base in Taif. But there is little evidence to support the thesis that they have purposefully targeted the holy cities in Hejaz.

While the missile attack is condemnable, the Houthi strike should not be used as an excuse by the Saudi-led coalition to escalate the war effort in Yemen. As it is, this impoverished Arab state has been battered by relentless conflict, especially since the Saudis intervened last year. The UN estimates that over two million people in Yemen require humanitarian assistance, while the threat of famine looms large. The number of civilians killed has been disturbingly high; on Oct 8 the coalition was accused of bombing a funeral in Sanaa, in which over 140 people were killed and hundreds more injured. The air strike caused an international outcry. If the Saudi coalition continues to pound Yemen, more extreme reactions from the Houthis — such as the missile strike — are possible. If the situation escalates, a wider regional conflagration with ugly sectarian overtones may result. That is why the international community — particularly regional and Muslim states — should intervene to bring the fruitless and bloody Yemeni conflict to a close. The rebels and the government should be persuaded to cease hostilities, negotiate a way out of the impasse and share power.

Decimation of wildlife


IT is widely recognised that supporting humanity is extracting a heavy toll on the planet. Even so, on Thursday came a report that is nothing less than damning: since the 1970s, nearly three-fifths of all vertebrates —fish, birds, amphibians, reptiles and mammals — have been wiped out directly as a consequence of human appetite and activity. If the prevailing trend continues, by 2020 — which is only four years away — the planet would have lost two-thirds of its wildlife stock. These are the findings of the conservation groups WWF and the Zoological Society of London, published in their joint biennial Living Planet report. Sadly, there is no mystery about why this is the case: with the human population having more than doubled in number since 1960 to the current 7.4bn, humans are simply eating, crowding and poisoning our planetary cohabitants out of existence. To make matters worse, while this particular study involved the tracking of changes in wildlife population sizes and not the number of species threatened with extinction, experts are in agreement that Earth has entered its sixth “mass extinction event” — when species disappear at least 1,000 times faster than usual — over the last half a billion years.

If humanity has a conscience, these findings ought to galvanise the world into action. There is, of course, an urgent need to save and conserve wildlife habitats, and an argument can also made for mankind to change its dietary patterns. But many countries need to start with making their populations aware of the need to protect wildlife, Pakistan being a case in point. Our own record of conservation on the whole leaves much to be desired. From the snow leopards in the north to the marine life in our oceans, depletions and habitat loss are occurring, without people tuning in to the fact that this will take an environmental and economic toll on human communities as well. Can the trend be reversed? Only time will tell.

Published in Dawn, October 31st, 2016
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Default November 1st, 2016

Chinese investor in K-Electric


A LONG journey might be about to end for Abraaj Group, the Dubai-based private equity fund that had made the bold move of acquiring a majority stake and management control in the beleaguered Karachi Electric Supply Company back in 2009. Those were troubled days as everyone remembers, when the first-ever privatisation of a power utility in Pakistan was floundering. Nobody really understood what Abraaj was up to and the move was met with a heavy dose of scepticism at the time. The new management took control at a time when the utility, renamed K-Electric, had been abandoned by its management, rolling blackouts in Karachi were a daily occurrence and a bruising battle with the state-owned power utility Pepco, which supplied almost half of the city’s power, had just seen a massive disconnection that cut off the power supply to the entire city.

Given the circumstances in which the acquisition was made, the positive track record of the Abraaj-led team must be acknowledged. It has restored the utility to profitability and brought load-shedding under control, even if through the morally dubious policy of increasing the incidence of load-shedding in areas that had been designated by it as ‘high loss’. They have weathered some powerful storms along the way, from rains and heatwaves that led to prolonged blackouts, labour unrest and more bruising conflict with government departments that did not pay their bills, to clashes with the Ministry of Water and Power. But to its credit, unlike the management that preceded it, the team did not give up and persevered through it all to reach this point.

Now comes the time for Abraaj to enjoy the fruits of its efforts, and the prize is a substantial one at $1.7bn for divestment of its 66.4pc stake, described by Abraaj as “one of the largest private-sector transactions in Pakistan”. At this time, it is imperative to bear in mind that there is a strong and abiding public interest in this transaction. So even though it is a ‘private transaction’, there is a significant role for public authorities to play. The public interest lies in determining whether the improvement in the utility’s affairs is being evenly experienced by all segments of the city’s population or whether it is a reality only for the elites whose neighbourhoods have seen an uninterrupted supply of power and the bulk of the investment made in system upgrades during the last seven years. It is also in ensuring that the new investor, Shanghai Electric Power, has the capacity to operate in Pakistan, where some amount of transparency and disclosure is the norm. The deal is still subject to approval from the state, and these matters ought to be thoroughly vetted before the Abraaj management is allowed to walk off with its prize.

Attack on majlis


AS the state scrambles to contain the menace of sectarian militancy, the extremists have resorted to using novel methods, and increasingly hitting ‘soft’ targets. Mass-casualty attacks have thankfully been averted this Muharram — thanks largely to the multilayer security cordon around mosques, imambargahs and mourning processions. Perhaps in reaction, terrorists have decided to go low-tech. On Saturday night, suspects on a motorcycle tried to barge into a women’s majlis in Karachi’s Nazimabad area. Unable to enter the house where the event was being held, the gunmen took aim at people gathered outside; at least five people have been confirmed dead in the attack. This was the fourth sectarian attack during Muharram in Karachi. In earlier attacks also, people were shot outside their homes, while an IED was lobbed at a women’s majlis inside an imambargah. Lashkar-i-Jhangvi al-Alami, an offshoot of the dreaded sectarian outfit Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, has claimed responsibility for the Nazimabad attack. During the months of Muharram and Safar, countless religious gatherings take place across the country. While the major mosques and imambargahs are relatively easy to protect, securing majalis inside homes — estimated to run into the thousands by police officials — is a very difficult task.

While more intelligence-based operations are needed to bust militant cells seeking to spread terror, a much bigger challenge stares the state in the face if it wishes to end sectarian bloodshed: confronting the ideological forces that provide oxygen to sectarian militancy. For several decades, the state looked the other way as jihadi and sectarian gangs spread their wings and became entrenched in society. Now, uprooting these groups is proving a formidable task. But it is pertinent to ask how hard the state is trying. While notorious sectarian killers have been eliminated in ‘encounters’ and attempts have been made to limit the movement of rabble-rousing preachers, especially during sensitive religious periods, the fact is that overall, sectarian groups in Pakistan still have considerable liberty to operate. For example, last Friday, when the state was unleashing its might against political protesters in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, the ASWJ, a banned sectarian outfit, was able to hold a rally in the federal capital unhindered, in defiance of Section 144. Some days earlier, the leader of this outfit had met the interior minister as part of a Difa-i-Pakistan Council delegation. If the state is serious about implementing NAP and eliminating sectarian terrorism from Pakistan, it must confront these glaring contradictions.

Hockey’s fortunes


ONCE more, Pakistan has failed to break the Indian jinx. In losing the Asian Champions Trophy final 3-2 in Kuantan, Malaysia, on Sunday, the team, despite showing good form, failed to overcome the psychological barrier in a high-pressure game against its arch-rival and conceded the match in its final moments of the match. The Pakistanis appeared to be on track when they bounced back from 0-2 at one point to level the score, but the end result was in India’s favour. Even as Pakistan embarked on the tournament some two weeks ago, many commentators had written off the team, its position as defending champions notwithstanding. That the national team managed to avoid embarrassment by reaching the finals had much to do with the performance of the ebullient Haseem Khan who almost single-handedly kept up hopes with a flurry of goals. However, in the final analysis, the Asian tourney could not be termed as Pakistan’s litmus test.

While competitive victories over South Korea and Malaysia deserve praise, beating teams such as China and Japan are no feather in Pakistan’s cap. It needs to play European giants such as Germany and the Netherlands more often, even Australia, to be rated as a force to contend with. But one does not see that happening in the near future since the Pakistan Hockey Federation has quite willingly allowed the game to become politicised while its officials have remained too engaged in ego battles and joyrides to concentrate on the game’s development. The advent of the private hockey league in India a couple of years ago infused new spirit into the game in that country, besides making it commercially viable. For its part, the current PHF regime has envisaged putting together a similar league this year; that raised some hopes of a revival. Unfortunately, the government refused to issue NOCs to the foreign players set to feature in the league and the PHF has since been forced to relegate the idea to the back-burner.

Published in Dawn November 1st, 2016
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Default November 2nd, 2016

Crisis defused


A RAPIDLY deteriorating situation has been salvaged — for now. It should not have taken direct intervention by the Supreme Court to defuse a grave crisis and have the PML-N and PTI behave like responsible national political parties once again, but in troubled times all sensible inputs ought to be welcomed. There is further reason to welcome the Supreme Court intervention: a substantive, independent inquiry into the Panama Papers revelations is now imminent, with the government and PTI given a chance first to present mutually acceptable terms of reference, failing which the court itself will impose the ToR for a prospective judicial commission. That is how it should be. At the intersection of the law and politics, all political actors must submit to the authority of the law and its final interpreters. If wrongdoing has been committed, it must be legally established and legally punished. If the country seeks a different political direction, it must come through the ballot box. A democratic system based on the rule of law is the only way forward.

The correct way, however, will necessarily depend on some introspection by the protagonists in the latest crisis. The PML-N governments in Punjab and at the centre are led by a coterie of vastly experienced politicians. A three-term prime minister, a four-term chief minister, senior federal ministers who have won multiple constituency elections — in terms of electoral, democratic experience, the PML-N’s leadership is second to none. And yet there is a strain of authoritarianism and anti-democratic sentiment in the PML-N leadership that is visible all too often. The PTI’s threat to lock down the federal capital may have been illegal and undemocratic, but nothing can justify the coercive and rough measures the PML-N took to try and thwart the PTI’s plan. Using the might of the executive and the blunt force of civilian law-enforcement against political opponents campaigning essentially for action against perceived corruption is not the kind of democratic rule this country needs or can find acceptable. As the chief custodians of the democratic project in this parliament, the PML-N needs to uphold systemic values that go beyond parochial interests.

The failings of the PML-N, however, are mirrored, perhaps exceeded, by the PTI. Unacceptable as the government’s response has been, the PTI has implicitly — and on some occasions, explicitly — used the threat of violence and anti-democratic intervention to try to bend the government to its will. That needs to stop. The PTI must make it clear to the public, to the Supreme Court and to the government that it intends to respect the judicial process that is to unfold and that it will accept a verdict from the highest court in the land. There should be no street protests and agitation while the court and an inquiry commission carry out their work. Democracy means accepting due process too.

Media under fire


DURING the last few decades, journalists have been at the receiving end of the most egregious kind of violence in Pakistan. Today is the International Day to End Impunity for Crimes Against Journalists, an occasion to once again highlight the danger, indeed sometimes the mortal peril, that media persons here have to contend with — and the sheer indifference by the state that ensures its perpetuation. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 56 journalists have been killed in Pakistan since 2000 for reasons confirmed as being related to their work; that is, either in direct reprisal, during the course of an assignment, or in crossfire while covering combat situations. The most recent to fall in the line of duty were TV cameramen Shehzad Ahmed and Mehmood Khan, killed in the devastating bomb blast at the Quetta Civil Hospital on Aug 8 which also claimed the lives of some 70 lawyers. The manner of their deaths in a terrorist attack is unfortunately one that many journalists in today’s Pakistan have to risk on a regular basis, with their job — almost by default — putting them in harm’s way even when safety precautions are taken.

But what to say of the targeted killings — murders that have silenced journalists investigating crime and corruption, or singled out those perceived as being ‘biased’ against one or other competing power centres — that go virtually uninvestigated, let alone punished? To date, only in three such murders, those of Daniel Pearl, Wali Babar and Ayub Khattak, has anyone been held accountable. It is a fact undeniable that this country is a minefield for journalists. They are menaced by a number of actors, both state and non-state, and in ways that can be unmistakably direct or subtly coercive. Either way, these tactics have led to far too many deadly consequences among the journalist community. A pernicious effect of the government doing little more than mouthing platitudes every time a media person is killed, is the pall that descends upon the profession as a whole. Stories that should be investigated — those that define the media’s oversight role — fall by the wayside; the shackles of self-censorship curb important critiques of the state’s actions and embolden obscurantist elements. Notwithstanding the many problems that beset the practice of journalism in Pakistan today and the raucous free-for-all that often characterises news coverage, an independent media that is secure in its role, is critical to a democratic polity.

Credit rating upgrade


IN the midst of the sound and fury of Pakistan’s politics, the news that a major credit rating agency has upgraded the country’s rating, and given it a stable outlook comes as a breath of fresh air. The action is in recognition of the country’s growing fiscal and external buffers. Clearly, the noise and chaos on the streets have not made much of an impression on foreign creditors, which is the way it should be. Pakistan’s ratings have been on a slow upward climb since 2008 when they hit rock-bottom, and the upgrade from Standard and Poor’s is the third since then, with the last one coming in 2015. Moody’s also upgraded Pakistan last year in two quick actions taken between March and June, reflecting the pace of improvement in the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals.

The acknowledgement of such an improvement is now largely ubiquitous. The fiscal deficit has shrunk and reserves have risen. But whatever the outside creditors might say, it is important to look beyond this to the real economy for signs that the progress is stirring movement in the right places. And on this point, which is of not much importance to external creditors who are only interested in the country’s capacity to service its debt in the medium term, the economy’s scorecard remains bleak. Savings and investment are not picking up, and whatever acceleration in growth that we see is coming largely from short-term sectors like construction. Exports continue their downward slide while non-oil imports have picked up to eat away any breathing room created by falling oil prices. Meanwhile, the country’s debt burden has increased and its outflows connected with its debt-service obligations are expected to rise steeply by almost 60pc by 2020, according to IMF data. These are not encouraging signs. The verdict of the ratings agencies, also reflected in the IMF’s assessment, needs to be tempered keeping these realities in mind.

Published in Dawn November 2nd, 2016
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Default November 3rd, 2016

Gadani tragedy


IT is most famously known as the place where ships go to die, but it seems that the Gadani ship-breaking yard is also a place where workers perish on the job. Tuesday’s oil tanker explosion, which killed almost 20 workers, injured scores and left many trapped, should awaken us to the callous treatment of labourers in the informal sector. A mere two days before the tragedy, a small group of labourers from the ship-breaking yard had come to the Karachi Press Club demanding better working conditions and more attention to their safety. The next day, some of them were ordered into the doomed oil tanker to begin its dismantlement; they were told to work quickly, even though the tanker had six feet of oil in its hold, according to one injured worker. The explosion that followed once the workers fired up their blowtorches to start cutting through the metal was so intense that some individuals were hurled over a great distance and their bodies recovered from nearby villages.

The numbing frequency with which such incidents occur should not take the focus away from the hellish conditions in which these men are made to work. A number of workers and their representatives on the scene of the burning tanker have spoken of how poorly equipped they are to handle the hazards of their job. According to one member of the Gadani Municipal Committee, it was impossible to ascertain the exact number of workers trapped inside the tanker. It is the height of callousness that workers in their hundreds can be given dangerous work, without any effort being made to record their names, numbers or the specific task they have been assigned. The rescue and emergency response was equally appalling; according to a member of the National Trade Union Federation, the fire broke out at 9 am but rescue operations began at 3.30 pm.

What does it say for the authorities, and society at large, when not a whimper of protest goes up for workers who die under such hellish circumstances? In the case of Gadani, when workers have protested, they have met with police brutality. Meanwhile, the owners of these shipyards should be made to meet the families of each one of the dead and injured workers and give compensation. They should be made to sit with the union representatives and listen to their grievances — although that is perhaps too much to expect given that they reportedly did not even reach the site of the accident where scores of charred bodies were being recovered. However, they must now be made accountable for not maintaining acceptable standards of workplace safety. There is no sense in going on about accountability anywhere in the country if we cannot ensure it for those who toil so hard for a living.

After Quetta attack


THE pain of Balochistan, particularly Quetta, is such that even those not directly affected would find it difficult to contemplate the recent tragedies without a shudder. The violence-weary city had not yet come to terms with the killing of 70 lawyers in August, when on Oct 24 another unspeakable slaughter occurred. This time the assailants crept into Quetta’s Police Training Centre and, under cover of darkness, laid to waste one of the four hostels on the 150-acre facility. The lives of 62 recently graduated policemen were snuffed out under the most terrifying of circumstances. Survivors — the young men had all been unarmed — recount hiding behind beds and of being unable to distinguish between their colleagues and the attackers. The latter had come dressed in camouflage and used the despicable tactic of pretending to be from the army to get their targets to unlock doors. What the victims’ families are going through can only be imagined.

What need not be left to the imagination, though, is the callousness of the state and official apparatus and functionaries, which could not even ensure, for example, that all the fallen made their final journey back home with dignity and in ambulances. Their relatives have horrifying tales to report: where some families received no word at all from the authorities, others talk of having to delay the mourning and burial process because they had to wait until VIPs had wrapped up their photo-op visits. And of course, there is the valid observation that the state was more focused on the dharna-related events in Islamabad than the Quetta tragedy. If this were not shameful enough, there are other, deeply troubling questions that the official apparatus must be made to answer. This was not the first time the academy has been attacked; why was security so weak when even the speech delivered by the Balochistan IGP at the facility’s passing-out ceremony on Sept 6 referred to it? Then, the young men had graduated and gone home, but were compelled to return for no specified reason — only to meet their deaths. Their families, in fact the public at large, should be taken into confidence about where that order came from, and why. Ultimately, Pakistan needs to face the fact that our law enforcers as well as the general public are in mortal danger from unflinching groups that deal in terror; measures must be taken accordingly across the board.

Mosul campaign


IF Iraqi forces manage to liberate the city of Mosul — under occupation of the militant Islamic State group since 2014 — it will be, symbolically, a major blow to the fanatical movement. As per the latest reports, the Iraqi military, aided by an assortment of Shia and Sunni militias, Kurdish peshmerga, as well as American forces, has entered this key city, where IS ‘caliph’ al-Baghdadi once held forth from within its historic mosque. However, the task before the Iraqi security forces is far from easy as thousands of IS fighters are reportedly holed up in and around Mosul, along with over a million civilians. As the UN has noted, the militants could use non-combatants as human shields. Iraqi forces must, therefore, proceed with caution and ensure the safety of civilians as they march upon Mosul. While IS still holds some other parts of Iraq, the return of Mosul to state control will be a psychological blow to the militant group and its dreams of a transnational ‘caliphate’. Ever since the group established itself in Iraq and Syria over two years ago, it has supported or inspired a devastating wave of violence affecting different parts of the world, including this region.

However, if IS is successfully dislodged from Iraq, its fighters can still seek refuge in the group’s Syrian fiefdom. Already, there are reports of militants crossing the border into Syria to escape the Iraqi advance. Defeating IS requires a holistic response from the international community. But for this to happen, there must be a halt to the civil war in Syria, as this bloody conflict has helped spawn a plethora of extremist groups. Will major global powers be willing to abandon the great game in Syria and unite on a one-point agenda of eliminating IS and similar terrorist groups active in the region, instead of focusing on regime change in Damascus? Unless IS and other terrorist groups are targeted in both Iraq and Syria, success in Mosul will be a pyrrhic victory.

Published in Dawn, November 3rd, 2016
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Default November 4th, 2016

Crippling smog


THE thick veil of smog that has engulfed large parts of central Punjab for the last few days may lift soon, but it should leave behind some realisation that when environmental issues are not taken seriously, nature’s revenge can be brutal. The dangers go beyond health and disruption of day-to-day life, as the large accident, caused by the smog in Hafizabad, shows — at least 12 people were killed and over 70 sustained serious injuries. By all accounts, this smog is different from all other episodes of the Punjab ‘fog’, as it has come to be called. This year it has come in the early days of winter whereas it usually occurs in late December. More importantly, the volume of particulate matter and toxic chemicals mixed in the smog has made breathing difficult for citizens, especially children. If this trend means that air quality in Punjab is deteriorating and the contributory factors are going to be increased once coal-fired power generation takes off in earnest, then it clearly indicates that the problem will worsen.

The Punjab government has shown a cavalier attitude towards environmental issues, particularly the impact of its many ‘development’ schemes, which are throwing up enormous amounts of dust into the air, as well as industrial emissions. Nothing illustrates this better than the report that air quality-measuring equipment given to the city of Lahore by the Japanese government is lying dysfunctional because workers have not been trained in its use. Clearly, the Punjab government would prefer to close its eyes to the environmental impact of its myriad developmental fantasies rather than take a measured look and develop the right tools and procedures to mitigate the environmental damage caused by large-scale construction, growing vehicular traffic, and the widespread use of wood and rubber as industrial fuels in the face of gas shortages.

The time has come to act. Nobody is suggesting that development or industrial activity should cease, but two things are absolutely crucial to understand. One is that environmental impact studies cannot be reduced to a mere formality, and the provincial government departments tasked with preparing the assessments for each project need to be staffed with people who have sound technical skills in the area. Second, the smog is a cross-border phenomenon, and although past studies point towards certain trace chemicals as coming from power plants across the border, one cannot argue that it is entirely the result of cross-border particulate matter. Both India and Pakistan are struggling with the smog phenomenon, which is worsening by the year. Yet they cannot deal with it on their own. The smog is indifferent to our political and boundary disputes. Both countries will have to find a way to work together in tackling this menace, or else face its intensifying wrath year after year.

Spy vs spy?


Once India had gone down the path of targeting Pakistani officials in the high commission in New Delhi, there was a weary certainty of a similar response by Pakistan.

Eight Indian diplomats in Islamabad have now been identified via leaks to the media as belonging to Indian intelligence agencies. It can be assumed that the individuals were in fact sent to Pakistan as undercover operatives; it is an established tradition, with carefully observed though secretive rules, that diplomatic missions the world over are partly staffed with intelligence personnel.

The same may be true for the Pakistani individual earlier named in India and it will remain true going forward — neither India nor Pakistan are going to be able to rewrite the rules of diplomacy as practised globally. The Indian action and Pakistani reaction, however, indicate a deeper problem at present: diplomacy has been overtaken by ‘spy wars’.

When the security establishments on either side of the border begin to take aim at diplomatic missions, the old rules of diplomacy can go out of the window, making it difficult to normalise the situation relatively quickly. In this case, deep anger and a sense of grievance appear to be animating both sides.

The Pakistani security establishment is enraged by the perception, manifestly encouraged by no less a person than Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of Indian interference in Balochistan. Meanwhile, the Indian security establishment, perhaps to help deflect attention from its own failings and excesses in India-held Kashmir, has increasingly railed against alleged Pakistani sponsorship of militancy in IHK.

The suspicions on either side are not new. However, what makes them troubling is the renewed intensity with which they are being peddled and the willingness to take diplomatically disruptive actions based on those suspicions.

Compounding the problem is the civil-military dynamic in the two countries. In India, Prime Minister Modi and his national security team have explicitly played up the importance of the Indian military and intelligence apparatus and appear to have encouraged the trend of growing militarisation of Indian policy towards Pakistan.

In Pakistan, the overt tensions between the political and military leadership, especially over how to approach policy on India, has for now reduced the space for sensible, peace-enhancing decisions. Y

et, whatever the new realities that shadowy forces may be trying to impose, the oldest of realities remains unchanged. India and Pakistan must eventually return to trying to resolve mutual disputes diplomatically and peacefully.

Karachi train accident


THURSDAY morning’s devastating train wreck in Karachi — the third crash in less than two months — should serve as a wake-up call for the railways authorities. In September, two separate train accidents had occurred on the same day — one near Multan, the other in Fateh Jang — resulting in a number of casualties. The loss of precious lives should prompt some soul-searching in this key ministry, so that Pakistan’s railway infrastructure can be made safer. Over 20 fatalities have been confirmed in Thursday’s crash involving two passenger trains, one of them stationary, near the Landhi station. There were conflicting reports in the media about what could have caused the crash; a Sindh government official said the moving train was given the green signal by mistake. However, the railways’ minister, in reported comments, blamed the drivers for not following directions. As said countless times in such cases, a thorough, meaningful probe should be initiated to ascertain the exact details that led to the crash.

It would be callous and irresponsible for officials of the railways ministry to simply express regret over the tragedy, announce a probe and compensation for the victims, and then move on to business as usual. Considering the frequency of such accidents, and the loss of life, what is required is a determined resolve from the officials to ensure that maximum precautions are taken to prevent such tragedies. Perhaps the ministry should conduct a thorough safety audit of railways’ infrastructure and equipment so that it can identify the lacunae that allow such accidents to occur. It is, in fact, quite surprising that few such efforts have been undertaken to make the railways safer. Secondly, a modernisation programme for Pakistan Railways’ colonial-era system is essential. While some steps have been taken in this direction, the pace remains glacial. The railways are a vital mode of transportation, especially for the average person in Pakistan. The nation deserves a network that is affordable, efficient and, above all, safe.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2016
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