[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Afghan misery[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]
04 January, 2010

THE mention of Afghanistan inevitably brings to mind the images of war — the Taliban resurgence, the tottering Karzai regime, the rising number of American casualties and the anxiety of all stakeholders in a post-US set-up. It is a familiar journey in which ordinary people do not seem to matter. Imagine the plight of a populace whose land has seen continuous warfare for over three decades. As figures released by the Afghan interior and defence ministries on Sunday showed, over 10,000 Afghans, including civilians, were killed last year — a figure up by 20 per cent over the year before. More shockingly, child casualties constituted 55 per cent of the civilian victims. The exact number of civilian fatalities over the last three decades would be impossible to calculate, but a rough estimate puts the number of Afghan dead from 1979 onward at between 1.1 million and 1.2 million. A minimum of four million Afghans fled to neighbouring Iran and Pakistan, largely to the latter. Such professional class as existed in one of the world`s most underdeveloped countries left for greener pastures.

The country has seen its infrastructure destroyed and trade disrupted. This situation has been aggravated by the army of jobless Afghans, many of whom have turned to the drug trade and the Taliban for sheer survival. Most regrettably, Afghanistan has once again become the world`s biggest producer of opium. According to UN statistics, one million Afghans have taken to drugs, the number of opium and heroin addicts going up by more than 50 per cent and 140 per cent respectively since 2005. A large number of addicts include women and children. Figures indicate that eight per cent of the population is involved in drug abuse. The tragedy is that the stipulated American withdrawal is no guarantee of peace. The Afghan National Army and the civilian set-up are not yet ready to cope with the post-American scenario, and the Taliban are likely to inject new force into their offensives, leading to more violence which would mean continued suffering for the people of Afghanistan. Unfortunately, neither the governments involved nor the militants care about the ordinary men, women and children.

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[B][U][CENTER]The cancer within[/CENTER][/U][/B]
05 January, 2011

THE governor of Punjab Salman Taseer has been murdered and his immediate killer, a policeman in his security detail, has been arrested. But the story of Mr Taseer’s assassination only begins there. The governor of Punjab had been an outspoken critic of the blasphemy laws and he paid the ultimate price for his rejection of the cancer of intolerance that has aggressively eaten away at this country for over three decades now. But when Mr Taseer was targeted by ultra-conservative elements of society for his stance, what was the response? The state stood silently by, ignoring the fatwas and the threats to the Punjab governor. When small-time clerics announced head money and other ‘rewards’ for ‘blasphemers’, no one was prosecuted or punished. It appears that in Pakistan if anyone decides to preface their arguments with the flag of Islam, however wrongly or cowardly, the state will just stand by and advise ‘tolerance’ and ‘understanding’. But there can be no tolerance for intolerance, no understanding of that which is patently criminal. The silence in the face of the ferocious verbal assault against Mr Taseer almost certainly emboldened those who meant him genuine harm. Even more depressing, his own party, the PPP, the party with apparently secular credentials, did not stand up in support of their own governor of the largest province of Pakistan.

The role of a section of the media, particularly the vernacular media, has also been malignant. Staggeringly, in the immediate aftermath of Mr Taseer’s murder, pundits on TV news channels were talking about the ‘untold’ story of ‘American state terrorism’ and how Mr Taseer had taken the ‘unprecedented’ step of being associated with a ‘guilty criminal’, Aasia Bibi, the Christian woman whose recent blasphemy conviction sparked the latest debate over Islamic laws introduced by Gen Zia. But the media’s culpability stretches further back. The coverage given to a couple of obscure Peshawar and Lahore clerics who announced a reward for the murder of Aasia Bibi was extraordinary, and extraordinarily irresponsible. Projecting such ‘news’ from irrelevant figures masquerading as religious ‘leaders’ onto the national radar, without regard for possible repercussions, was an abject abandonment of media ethics.

With Mr Taseer’s death, the question haunting this country in recent years has come back with force: where will the path this country is on lead it to? It ought to be depressingly obvious. If Pakistan and Pakistanis do not try and excise the cancer within, the future of this country is very bleak indeed.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"][CENTER]Taliban ‘courts’[/CENTER][/SIZE][/U][/B]

IN the recent past there have been worrying reports of militants convening forums to ‘try’ alleged offenders in various parts of the northwest. On Monday, a self-proclaimed TTP ‘Shariat court’ in Orakzai found a man guilty of theft. The TTP subsequently chopped off his hand. On Sunday night, they slit the throat of a man whom they accused of ‘spying’ for the security forces. Last November, in the same region, the TTP flogged 25 men it accused of peddling drugs. Similar reports, suggesting that the Taliban are styling themselves as investigators of what they see as the ‘truth’ and dispensers of their idea of ‘justice’, have come from North and South Waziristan. In this category can be placed the Dec 26 kidnapping of 23 tribesmen after they met the army chief. Before being released they were apparently made to face a Taliban ‘court’ to decide on their ‘crime’.

These reports show that the TTP remains active. Further, its court-like activities present a serious threat to the state’s writ. Quite apart from the mediaeval brutality of the ‘punishments’ they propose, the fact is that such forums and their methods of inquiry or sentencing are unconstitutional and illegal. That they exist shows the state’s failure in establishing an effective, legitimate judicial system in the country’s northwest. It is true that space for the Taliban ‘courts’ existed in these areas because of the tradition of jirgas. However, jirgas were never dominated by religiously motivated persons or concerns. Given that no successful political system has been put in place after the collapse of the political agent system, people have little access to legitimate justice forums. If the Taliban are not stopped from exploiting this situation, Pakistan risks allowing a parallel but extra-legal and horrifyingly brutal ‘justice’ system to establish itself and the consequent legitimisation of the Taliban as a quasi-political force.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]At war with ourselves[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]
06 January, 2011

THE assassination of Punjab Governor Salman Taseer has unleashed a torrent of commentary about the decline of society, and rightly so. The story of the latest political figure killed at the hands of an extremist, though, has a twist to it: Mr Taseer broke no law, temporal or spiritual, but was instead killed for questioning a law. That unprecedented motive for an assassination ought to be reflected on. The country appears to have lurched to the conservative right even further and more abruptly than ever before in recent years. Consider that when Gen Musharraf (retd) attempted to revisit the issue of the blasphemy laws, he quickly had to back down and was only able to make some procedural changes. But just those few short years ago the level of vitriol and anger the Musharraf-led effort stirred up was nothing in comparison to what has been on display since the conviction of the Christian woman, Aasia Bibi, for blasphemy late last year. Clearly, the forces of extremism are on the march like never before and they are determined to bully and threaten people, with death even, to push them out of the public discourse.

Yet, this is not just an issue about social and religious conservatives versus liberals competing to define Pakistan. The fact of the matter is, increasingly even moderates are being shouted down and bullied out of the public space. Moderates coming from the conservative right who dare to pronounce that man-made laws are always open to scrutiny and revision have been threatened. Those espousing interpretations of Islam that are removed from the literalist, narrow interpretations of ultra-conservatives and extremists have been killed. The war to define Pakistan is not just being fought between the `liberal` and `conservative`, but between the ultra-conservatives and everyone else, liberal, moderate and even mildly conservative.

What truly makes the societal war so frightening is the fertile ground the extremists have to plant their millenarian ideology. Mr Taseer`s killer may have been an `elite` policeman, but the educational system and cultural environment in which he grew up likely never equipped him with the tools to rationally reject the poison flowing in the milieu in which he lived and worked. As long as the state ostensibly fights extremism without even a semblance of a counter-extremism strategy, more tragic deaths like that of Governor Taseer`s may be inevitable. Punishing those who incite violence would only be a starting point. The shameful heroic reception accorded to Mr Taseer`s killer indicates how complex the task is, how deep-rooted the problem has become. Truly, we are at war with ourselves. And at the moment, it looks like the extremists are winning.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"][CENTER]Orgy of hate[/CENTER][/SIZE][/U][/B]
07 January, 2011

WHERE is the state? In the days since Punjab governor Salman Taseer`s assassination, the hate speech and incitements to violence have been openly, matter-of-factly and brazenly spread. What began as `celebrations` by obscure, extremist clerics has quickly snowballed into even mainstream religious party leaders seemingly endorsing the murder of Mr Taseer. And thus far there has been nothing, not a peep, not a meaningless arrest, not a word of condemnation from the government or state officials against the orgy of self-congratulatory hatred swatches of the population have been wallowing in since the governor`s assassination.

The `mainstream` conservative and religious political party leaders who appear to be endorsing Mr Taseer`s killing have set a new low in what passes for acceptable public discourse. It is one thing for some illiterate, small-time `religious leaders` in parts of the country where modernity has yet to visit to spew out odious thoughts; it is quite another to see familiar political faces publicly expressing sympathy for a murderer and his motive. What appears to have happened is that when the initial eulogising of Mumtaz Qadri`s act by the far right was not condemned by any quarter, other conservative elements were emboldened to come forward with their own expressions of support and understanding for Mr Taseer`s killer. Perversely, a call by obscure clerics gathered under the banner of an equally obscure religious group to not give Mr Taseer a Muslim burial resulted in senior clerics associated with renowned religious institutions in Lahore declining to lead the funeral prayers for the late governor. Whether it was done out of fear or conviction is not known, but the chilling effect threats from extremists can have is very clear.

But has the state completely abdicated its responsibility? Where are the arrests and prosecutions the incitement to violence and hate speech merit? Lawyers who are otherwise demanding the `rule of law` and action against `corrupt politicians` were seen hugging and kissing and showering rose petals on Mumtaz Qadri when he was produced in court on Wednesday. Surely some legal action can be taken against them, by the state and the relevant bar councils. The problem is of course much wider. A sizeable section of the vernacular press has been busy valorising and hero-worshipping Mumtaz Qadri. Where are all the champions of a free and responsible media now? The lead, though, must be taken by the government. The PPP has just lost its governor; it mourned the third death anniversary of its iconic leader days earlier; the birth anniversary of its founder put to death by the godfather of obscurantism was observed on Wednesday — surely the party needs to begin to push back.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Security lapse[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]

WITHOUT doubt, the assassination of Punjab governor Salman Taseer by Elite Force guard Malik Mumtaz Qadri is a security lapse with grave implications. It now seems that the relevant authorities were aware of the potential threat Mumtaz Qadri posed. According to media reports, 18 months ago he was posted out of the Rawalpindi police`s special branch after being described in a police report as a “security threat”. It was recommended that he should not be deputed for VIP security. After the furore erupted over the possibility of amending the blasphemy laws, he organised a rally in his neighbourhood. How did a person with such credentials come to be amongst the security guards assigned to a VIP who, it was well known, was a potential target for the extremists? Then, there are other questions that must be answered. There have been reports that before Mumtaz Qadri targeted Mr Taseer, he asked his colleagues — several Elite Force personnel were there — to not kill him as he intended to court arrest. Should we take the fact that the other guards did nothing as evidence of a conspiracy, or as evidence that they condoned the crime? Either way, the implications are extremely worrying. If the governor of the country`s largest province, amongst the people offered the highest levels of security, can come under attack in this manner, how can security be offered, with any confidence, to anyone else?

Yet, it must be acknowledged that in Pakistan`s grim situation, ensuring security presents considerable challenges. That the killer should not have been included in VIP security is only one aspect. The real question is, how does the security establishment ensure that there are no closet extremists within its ranks, no ideologues with murder in their hearts? In fact, how does one draw the distinction between a practising Muslim and a fanatic? The country`s security establishment has for decades supported jihadi outfits that have grown into today`s extremist monsters. Given this situation, an entirely new approach is needed to vet the credentials of those involved in security duties.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Chance for cooperation[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]
12 January, 2011

THE confession by the main suspect in the Samjhota Express attack confirms that Hindu extremists can be as deadly as Muslim ones. Four years after the train bombing that killed 68 people, including 42 Pakistanis, Swami Aseemanand has given Indian intelligence officials details about the domestic networks that trained and financed the attackers and about the involvement of RSS leader Indresh Kumar in this incident as well as in the Mecca Masjid and Ajmer blasts. According to these officials Aseemanand is now being taken to Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra to help locate the people who provided money and shelter to those who planted the explosives on what was supposed to a train that would bring citizens of the two countries closer. Seen in the light of earlier revelations by Srikant Purohit, a serving Indian colonel who has been in jail since 2008 for the Malegaon bombing, Aseemanand`s story presents a picture of rightwing violence and its bankrollers across India. Purohit had said he organised the blasts in order to trigger an Indo-Pakistan war that could lead to a backlash against India`s Muslim minority; a war was also the motive for the Islamist extremists who carried out the Mumbai massacre in November 2008.

On Monday the Pakistan Foreign Office summoned India`s acting deputy high commissioner and demanded that New Delhi provide details about the Samjhota investigations before the foreign secretaries of the two countries meet in Thimpu next month. But given the known presence of terrorist networks in both countries, it would be myopic for Islamabad and New Delhi to treat the issue as a diplomatic shibboleth to embarrass each other. One wonders what use has been made of the joint anti-terror mechanism Gen Pervez Musharraf and Manmohan Singh agreed to set up at Havana in September 2006. There is little evidence that the two governments have used it to successfully share intelligence, and a rethink of the process is needed. The swami`s confession underlines the need for Pakistan and India to cooperate in taking a common enemy head-on.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Persistent violence[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

THERE is a general consensus that the more vulnerable citizens of this country are greatly exploited. Women and minorities top this list. Very often we are given stark reminders of just how bad the situation is. Aurat Foundation’s recently released report documenting incidents of violence against women in Sindh is one of these reminders. It says that over 820 women were victims of violence in the province during the last six months of 2010. The report, based on media figures, says that in a large number of the incidents FIRs were not lodged, which reflects a lack of confidence citizens have in the police. There are grim reminders within the report that evil social practices persist, such as the fact that several women were exchanged like chattel to settle disputes adjudicated by illegal jirgas, or that over 130 people were killed in incidents of karo-kari.

If compared to the figures compiled by the same organisation last year, it is clear there has hardly been a change in the situation: 1,763 cases of violence against women in Sindh were reported in 2010 while the figure for 2009 is 1,762. It is alarming — not to mention sad — that such a situation persists in a province the PPP considers its stronghold. This is all the more so because the party is known for its progressive stance on social issues. What is the PPP doing to root out these evils from its hinterland? Winning a mandate from the people doesn’t mean simply enjoying the perks of power. It means enacting and enforcing progressive legislation that protects the vulnerable and helps change societal attitudes. Also, as an MPA speaking at the report’s launch rightly pointed out, laws to protect women already exist; the issue is enforcing them. This is an area where all Pakistani governments have been found wanting.

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[CENTER][B][U][SIZE="2"]Crucial distinction[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]
January 13, 2011

HOW the essence of the question of whether the blasphemy laws merit parliamentary review has been lost is illustrated by the case of 45-year-old Mohammad Shafi and his 20-year-old son, Mohammad Aslam. On Monday, an anti-terrorism court in Muzaffargarh handed down a sentence of life imprisonment with fines to the father and son. They had been arrested last April on the charge of blasphemy. The circumstances of their case, however, demonstrate how there is an ever-present danger of the laws lending themselves to confusion. The men had removed a poster that had been put up outside their grocery shop; this poster had promoted a religious event in a nearby village, and is said to have carried Quranic verses. The irony is that Mr Shafi is a prayer leader in his area.

In the furore over the blasphemy laws` issue in recent times, the country seems to be in danger of missing the point. Those who urged that this piece of legislation ought to be revisited did not base their proposal on any aspect of religion or legitimacy of the law. Rather, they based their arguments on the suspicion that the laws may potentially lend themselves to misuse. On a number of occasions it has been suspected that the accusation of blasphemy has been wrongfully applied as a pretext to achieve other, ulterior aims. These can include attempts at grabbing land or depriving heirs of their inheritance, the victimisation of minorities, rival sects or communities, the settling of business scores. Sometimes sheer misunderstandings have led to the most terrible of consequences.

As the defence counsel of Mr Shafi and Mr Aslam pointed out, both the accused are Muslims and their religious convictions are well-known and sound. The arrest and conviction of the father and son demonstrates in the most worrying and vivid of ways that any person, regardless of religion, social standing or world view, may come under the thrall of the blasphemy laws. The controversy over this legislation has been projected as a battle between two extremes. But as the Muzzafargarh ruling shows, the reality is of an all-consuming fire that can swallow any person at any time. The issue here, then, is fundamentally removed from a question of religion. The issue is whether this piece of legislation contains loopholes that lend themselves to misuse. The review was proposed on this basis, rather than on any matter of religious sentiment. It is important that all those whose passions are currently running high take a step back and try to recognise this crucial and demonstrably divisive distinction.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Water dispute[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

THE shortage of water has become a source of perennial discord between the provinces in Pakistan. Hence it is imperative that the situation be handled in a judicious manner before the problem becomes too complicated to resolve. In this regard the Punjab Assembly passed a unanimous resolution on Tuesday calling for the federal government to restructure the Indus River System Authority in order to “avert controversies between federating units in future”. The resolution also calls for the fifth member of Irsa to be “impartial” and to hail from either Islamabad or Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The principal disagreement here is between Sindh and Punjab over how to manage the water that flows in the Indus system. According to a report quoting the Irsa chairman, Pakistan`s available surface water is 102 million acre feet while the requirement is 114 MAF. If predictions are true these shortages are not going to get any better, hence a plan of action is needed to harmoniously deal with the shortage.

For starters the wastage of water must be curtailed and more efficient methods of irrigation should be introduced. Focus should also be on reviving the telemetry system, which can track the usage and release of water in a scientific manner. There should also be a frank debate about the 1991 water accord that governs the sharing of water between provinces. Sindh has indicated that it would like to see changes in the accord, while the feeling in Punjab is that it is a workable document; the problem lies in its implementation. Undoubtedly the situation on the ground has changed in the two decades since the accord was signed. For one climate change and a growing population have altered the situation. Hence the stakeholders need to discuss whether the accord should be adjusted according to realities on the ground and reliable predictions for the future.

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[CENTER][B][U][SIZE="2"]Rebuilding ties?[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]
14 January, 2011

ON the surface it was a stern public diplomacy message from the vice president of America to the people of Pakistan. On his second visit to the country since his election, Joe Biden`s public remarks yesterday did not flinch from dwelling in detail on the differences between American and Pakistani perceptions. Last year Gen Kayani had submitted to President Obama at the bilateral strategic dialogue a list of the army`s concerns regarding American strategy in the region, and on Wednesday Mr Biden responded in kind. While the rhetoric was restrained, there were unmistakable signs of underlying tensions between the two states. Did the US vice president take an even tougher line behind the scenes in meetings with the top leadership here, including Gen Kayani? Media reports suggest that in private Mr Biden pushed yet again the key US demand in recent times: that the Pakistani military launch an operation in North Waziristan to deny sanctuary to militants focused on the fight in Afghanistan and against the West.

But even as the July 2011 deadline for the beginning of US troop withdrawals approaches rapidly, the uncertainty of American gains in Afghanistan has seeped into the strategic calculus on this side of the border, at least as far as a North Waziristan operation is concerned. The parameters and goals of the US-sanctioned reconciliation process with the Afghan Taliban also remain murky. From the perspective of the Pakistani security establishment, then, it needs to prepare for any number of end-state scenarios next door, including the future roles of other regional powers. Given this situation, it continues to maintain a level of uncertainty about going after militants in North Waziristan who could become possible allies in a post-US Afghanistan. Meanwhile, yesterday`s suicide bombing in Bannu, launched from that tribal agency, underscores the need to reconfigure this worldview to take into account the danger posed by this strategy to Pakistan itself.

Despite the disconnect between the US and Pakistan on this issue, however, Mr Biden`s visit indicates that America perhaps realises the need for reassurance in light of recent tensions. President Obama`s visit to India last year, charges levelled against Pakistani intelligence officials in New York in the Faisal Shahzad case and the recent exposure of the CIA station chief in Islamabad have shaken the relationship in recent months. Mr Biden`s choice of words in saying the two countries need to “re-dedicate” themselves to “the progress we have made over the last couple of years” indicates the need for focusing together on the problem at hand, something never really tried before.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Bannu attacks[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

THE past few days have seen a resurgence of militant violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A bomber rammed a jeep full of explosives into a mosque in Bannu on Wednesday evening while a roadside bomb killed two policemen on Thursday in the same town. Two female teachers were also killed when a roadside device hit a school van in Peshawar. The mosque was located close to a police station and law-enforcement personnel were among the dead. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan has claimed responsibility for the mosque attack and promised that more are in the pipelines. In the murky world of tribal militancy, little can be said with certainty, but it appears that the attacks may have been linked to the visit to Pakistan by the US vice president. A possible reason: the security apparatus fighting strands of militancy here is often accused of following an `American` agenda.

Here, then, is the flip side of the American demand to `do more`. While no reasonable or independent observer could look at Pakistan`s counter-insurgency strategy and come away satisfied, there are very real operational and tactical constraints that also apply. But the American angle tends to obfuscate matters. Pakistan`s central challenge is two-fold. First, establish the philosophical and strategic commitment to eradicating militancy and rooting out extremism from society. Second, design and then implement a serious, coherent and realistic plan to achieve the goal of defeating militancy. Because the security establishment here has baulked at the first step — distancing itself clearly and completely from non-state actors of any hue — the level of trust in the genuineness of the constraints that apply is low. Essentially, is the fear of `blow back` and instability in Pakistan proper a totally genuine worry or is it partly an excuse for failing to act against groups which may still have some usefulness? A full-frontal, all-guns- blazing, purely military approach — as the Americans seem to demand often — cannot be a genuine or long-term solution to the problem of militancy. But if a strategy does exist here to fight militancy, what is it? And how sure can we be of total commitment to that strategy?

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Recovering money[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]January 15, 2011

RENTAL power plants are like the gifts that keep on giving — but to the corporate fat cats who sponsored them, rather than electricity to the consumers in an energy-starved economy. On Thursday, a Supreme Court intervention led to yet another RPP `operator` returning nearly a billion rupees of advance money after failing to even import the machinery for the purported project. Last month, two other rental power projects returned advances received from the government totalling over Rs2bn. In the complex world of big-money financial contracts, the problems plaguing each rental power plant can be any of a variety of reasons. The returned advances do not even stricto sensu imply that some clear-cut wrongdoing has been identified. However, whatever the legal position, there is something mightily unpalatable about billions of rupees of taxpayer money handed out in return for, well, nothing.

The rental power plant `scam` is well-known by now. Likened by analysts to demanding that a road be built and then wanting it built yesterday, the go- vernment`s quest for fast-track electricity generation necessarily led to some unwelcome choices. Fast-track translates into expensive — very expensive tariffs in the case of rental power, regardless of what its defenders, few that there are left, continue to claim. In addition, poorly vetted contracts can often produce very expensive surprises, often at the expense of the government, and by extension the taxpayer and the public at large. And so it seems that the government generally and the Supreme Court particularly are stuck on the horns of a dilemma: try to aggressively invalidate legally enforceable contractual obligations, and the rental power plant operators may turn to international arbitration, an option that rarely produces good news for the state. In addition, the chilling effect going after `bad` investors can have on foreign investment is something that always needs to be kept in mind. Perhaps with this in mind the Supreme Court is taking a measured approach, allowing rental power plants to go ahead where the operator has demonstrated some genuine intent to produce electricity according to the terms of the contract.

Of course, the government is the key player here and it does have several options, seemingly ignored by the champion of RPPs, the minister for water and power, Raja Pervez Ashraf. Where delays have occurred in starting up projects, the government has the option of renegotiating tariffs or even rescinding the agreement in certain circumstances, but the government appears to be reluctant to even take up the options it does have. Thanks to the Supreme Court, Rs3bn of public money has been recovered; surely, the government could do even better, if it had the will?

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Lebanon in crisis[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

LEBANON stands dangerously poised on what could be a prolonged and perhaps dangerous political crisis. Analysts agree things may not lead to another civil war of the kind that devastated the country and led to at least 150,000 deaths. Nevertheless, the resignation by 10 Hezbollah ministers and one Christian sympathiser has spelled doom for the coalition led by Saad Hariri. President Michel Suleiman is now looking for a caretaker prime minister, but the Hezbollah leadership has made it clear it would not again accept Hariri as head of the cabinet. The crisis comes in the wake of the leaks that the UN-backed Special Tribunal on Lebanon is about to release its findings and perhaps hold Hezbollah responsible for Rafiq Hariri`s murder in 2005. Syrian intelligence was largely blamed for the prime minister`s assassination, and the subsequent anti-Syrian demonstrations led to the withdrawal of the 40,000 troops Damascus had based in the Bekaa valley since the civil war, but Syria continues to have a presence in its south- western neighbour.

Lebanon is a country in which its friends and foes have vital stakes. The latest crisis marks the failure of the joint Saudi-Syrian attempt to avert a breakdown of the coalition government. America, Saudi Arabia and Egypt backed Hariri, and Israel, which has invaded the country several times, keeps tabs on pro-Palestinian groups, especially Hezbollah, with which it fought a humilia- ting war in 2006. Tel Aviv would like to exploit the situation for its interests, and that is what reinforces the need for all Leba- nese politicians to unite. Hariri`s murder was a tragedy, but it would be a greater tragedy if it were to lead to more bloodshed. Hezbollah must especially act with care and ensure that its credentials as a political and militant force fighting for Palestine`s liberation are not sullied.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Fiscal emergency[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]
January 17, 2011

ON Saturday, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani pronounced that the national economy is `improving`. But on the same day, the chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue, Salman Siddique, told a gathering of businessmen in Karachi that the government is in a state of `fiscal emergency`. So who is the public to believe? Surveying the data and statistics available, it certainly appears that Mr Siddique is far closer to the truth. And, as if to buttress Mr Siddique`s claim, media reports from the same day flagged the skewed statistics released in the latest Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: spending on infrastructure, including railways, roads and bridges, in the July-Sept quarter was down 36 per cent over the previous year while security-related expenditures were up by 17 per cent. The implications of those numbers are obvious: going forward, Pakistan will not have an economic launch pad, making it even more difficult to emerge from current period of low growth and high insecurity.

It appears the government`s `strategy` on the economic front, to the extent one can be discerned, is simply to gamble on American beneficence and largesse. Given Pakistan`s front-line status in the war against militancy, perhaps the PPP leadership is calculating that the American foreign policy establishment will not let Pakistan sink come what may. Hence, President Zardari`s recent meeting with President Obama raised hopes here in Pakistan that some kind of bailout of the economy was on the cards. However, the American strategy has also become clear: while willing to continue underwriting the economy here, the Americans want some concrete steps taken by the Pakistani administration to demonstrate its commitment to economic reform. It appears to have descended into a high-stakes poker game: the PPP seemingly willing to preside over economic collapse, gambling that American foreign-policy interests would prevent that from happening; the Americans allowing matters to go to the brink, determined to exact some concessions and economic reforms from the Pakistani administration.

As ever, the average Pakistani, who is most directly impacted by the economic tug of war between the US and Pakistan, is helpless. Inflation is back with a vengeance, growth is still low, job-creating industries are teetering and the government has no fiscal space for bailouts or ramping up targeted subsidies. The prime minister has become famous for his statements; perhaps it is time his government walked the talk?

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Saving the railways[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

PUBLIC transport has never been high on the list of priorities of the Pakistani state. The railways have received particularly step-motherly treatment, as a result of which today it is a moribund, loss-making institution. The neglect and mismanagement have put increased pressure on the road network, while people have had to suffer as train fares have been hiked and services curtailed. It was recently announced that both passenger fares and freight charges would be raised, the former by up to 25 per cent. This will be the second fare hike since July. The reasons PR is in dire straits are several, but the primary problem here is a financial one. The railways` annual losses are said to hover around Rs23bn, while the federal cabinet recently announced it would give the institution a multi-billion rupee injection to keep PR afloat. Less than half of the railways` engines are in working order while thousands of acres of railways` land are under illegal occupation, including by government departments. Last summer`s floods are also said to have inflicted major damage to the rail network. In a supposed attempt to cut losses, several inter-city train services have been axed, while more may follow. The Karachi Circular Railway, which could help ease congestion on the metropolis`s roads, never seems to get off the drawing board. Critics say the government has paid undue attention to the road network, as a result of which there have not been the required maintenance and infrastructure upgrades required to keep PR in good health.

Pakistan Railways` predicament has been several decades in the making. Yet there is still time to put the railways back on track, if the government has the vision and more importantly the intention to do so. India`s state-run railways run at a profit. Perhaps we can study that model, as the railways form part of both countries` combined colonial heritage. We also share many traits with the Indians, such as corruption in governance and an inefficient, Byzantine bureaucracy. Hence if they can make the railways work, why can`t we? Saving the railways is a key matter of public interest and this institution cannot be allowed to die a slow death.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Muddled strategy[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]
January 18, 2011

CONFUSION and ad hocism seem to be the defining characteristics of the government`s strategy to bring peace to Karachi. Nearly 30 people have died in the latest bout of bloodletting, but a lack of coherence within the ruling PPP as well as dissonance between coalition partners has made containing the lawlessness difficult. Among the measures announced by the government on Sunday was the fact that troubled areas of the metropolis would be placed under `partial curfew`. This naturally alarmed people as the citizens of Karachi do not have fond memories associated with the term. The PPP and the MQM met to discuss the issue, but the ANP was left out of the talks. However a `multi-party meeting` has been scheduled for today.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik has come in for some severe criticism from his own party for his handling of the situation, particularly because of his solo fire-fighting tactics. PPP leaders — including the party`s elected representatives from Karachi — say the minister`s Mr Fix-it style of operation leaves them in the dark about what exactly has been agreed upon with other parties. Even the PPP`s central information secretary said she did not know whether Mr Malik was mandated by the president or the prime minister to talk to the MQM. Mr Malik has claimed a `third force` was at work to destabilise Karachi. There may be some truth to these claims, yet the problem remains the same: violence erupts because politically backed militants are fighting a savage turf war on the city`s streets. Unless this fact is acknowledged and the militants are defanged, there will be no peace in the city. The interior minister has also claimed that some `target killers` have been caught `red-handed`. The question is: will these people be tried and — if found guilty — will they be punished regardless of their political affiliations?

The fact that the state is considering imposing a curfew suggests that either the routine law and order apparatus has failed or it is incapable of keeping the peace. Is this the case? Also, it is clear that because there is no consultation within the ruling party nor cohesion between the coalition partners, artificial solutions result, which fail to deliver. In this state of controlled chaos the parties must realise that if they fail to show vision, people will lose whatever faith they have in the democratic project. As for calls to bring the army to Karachi`s streets, the politicians must remember that if this happens, the military will play by its rules — which will mean the parties will be left with very little space in which to operate.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Poor show[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

IT is ironic that most of the provisions of the package titled Aghaze Huqooq-i-Balochistan — the beginning of the provision of rights to the province — remain unimplemented because of bureaucratic red tape. The constitutional and economic package was launched in November 2009 with the hope of addressing the alienation and deprivation felt by the people of the province. It was understood that this mindset added fuel to the fires stoked by separatist or ultra-nationalist groups; thus, bringing Balochistan and its people into the mainstream was essential, and the Aghaze Huqooq-i-Balochistan package was the route to achieving this. Many months and over a dozen high-profile meetings later, however, a report prepared by the establishment division presents a dreary picture. Of the 61 major steps envisaged under the package, only 15 have reached the stage of full implementation. This, despite the fact that most of the policy decisions stood finalised as part of the 7th National Finance Commission award and the 18th Amendment.

We would have thought that the major hindrance in terms of addressing Balochistan`s grievances would lie in the decision-making. That this hurdle was crossed many months ago but the efforts tripped at the administrative level is galling. The problem, as ever, is the lack of political will. Clearly, it is lacking, notwithstanding all the many high-profile meetings and statements of good intent thrown out from time to time. Obviously, political will is needed not just at the decision-making but also at the procedural and administrative levels. The issues faced by Balochistan are myriad but they all start at one point: the need to bring the province, its people and infrastructures into the mainstream. It seems that one of the few areas of success has been the halting of the construction of cantonments at Sui and Kohlu, the former having been turned into a military college and the latter having been taken over by the Frontier Corps. But the provisions that are trailing behind in implementation include crucial ones such as that of civilian control over the FC and the release or prosecution of `missing persons`. The dilly-dallying must end. The government must find the political will to fully implement what has already been agreed upon.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"]Funny money[/SIZE][/U][/B][/CENTER]

WikiLeaks is about to strike gold once again, and of course Pakistanis have another legitimate shot at ending up in its vast database of notoriety. Since no list of wealthy tax evaders channelling money into foreign accounts can be complete without representatives from this country, Swiss ex-banker Rudolf Elmer`s announcement that he will be handing over 2,000 global tax evaders` offshore-banking data to WikiLeaks is perhaps causing some heartburn in the domestic corridors of wealth and power. That said, our lawmakers have already survived unscathed a PakiLeaks of sorts when sections of the domestic media reported that a majority of them pay no taxes at all. That`s right, zero. Presumably, they are surviving on thin air. Among those who did pay up, one reportedly contributed Rs224 and a particularly generous soul handed over Rs1,225 to help bridge our fiscal deficit. The fact that this revelation resulted in no action being taken against anyone implies that no mere Julian Assange can strike fear into the heart of a Pakistani parliamentarian.

Additionally, in the scheme of concealed global wealth moved quietly from world capitals to Caribbean tax havens, there are much bigger fish to fry. Pakistan`s entrants in the contest, whether landlords, industrialists or politicians, can only dream of evading sums on the scale of American hedge funds or Greek shipping heirs. They might even lose in a face-off with African dictators. Too small to catch global attention, too big to be prosecuted at home, Pakistani tax evaders have found themselves in the perfect country in the world for avoiding the inconvenience of paying for government services and maybe lending a hand to fellow citizens who can barely afford to feed themselves. Let the Internal Revenue Service hunt down dishonest Americans and slimy private bankers; in Pakistan, we consider it a right to squirrel our millions out of the country.

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