[CENTER][U][B][SIZE="2"]Choice ahead[/SIZE][/B][/U][/CENTER]
February 01, 2011

ZINE El Abidine Ben Ali is gone, Hosni Mubarak is tottering and revolution seems to be in the air. Across the Middle East, Arab regimes appear to be in a state of shock. Can Mr Mubarak somehow defy the odds and hold on to power, many an authoritarian regime leader will be wondering. And if he falls, who could be next? Publicly, stony-faced silence has been the reaction across much of the region. But privately, the fear will be there. A choice now lies ahead for the leaders of Middle Eastern countries: commit to genuine and meaningful reform and initiate the process immediately, or risk being cast aside as relics of the past. The ruling class in the Middle East must resist the temptation to view this as a Hobson`s choice, a choice between two equally unpleasant options. A reform process could prove a win-win situation, a way for authoritarian regimes to salvage the few good ideas they have on the direction the Middle East should take politically and ideologically. Do nothing and a radical alternative may eventually storm the ramparts, bringing new worries to an already troubled part of the world.
While Middle Eastern states differ from each other in social development and the citizenry`s involvement in politics — consider the stark difference between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia — common to them all is the absence of meaningful democracy. Most non- dynastic regimes have erected superficial democratic structures and where relatively free elections take place, such as Lebanon and post-occupation Iraq, rather than stability it is political chaos that reigns. The idea of a free press mainly remains a mirage and where civilian dictators have ruled for decades, all opposition has been forced underground. The regimes` failure to provide space for liberal opposition, which is usually bad at underground networking, has worked to the advantage of extremist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which know how to survive persecution.
Whether Mr Mubarak survives or not, the choice the region`s rulers must make is clear. They have to reorder their countries` political systems and accelerate — or, in some cases, initiate — democratic reforms. This essentially means unshackling the press, giving cultural and political freedoms to their citizenries and holding elections that are truly transparent. The scene in many Middle Eastern countries may appear tranquil for now but it is a deceptive calm. The events in Egypt and Tunisia may not ignite revolts everywhere in the near future but that gives no guarantees for the future. One day, the rulers` inaction could spark a revolt which may be anarchic as a result of being leaderless, as signs in Egypt indicate.

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[U][B][SIZE="2"]Pak-US intersection[/SIZE][/B][/U][/CENTER]

IF this is the age of information we are living in, we could certainly do without the variety in `factual` versions that are often bandied about to describe one event and one situation. Take Raymond David. We know he is an American accused of killing two young men in a shootout in Lahore, with the ensuing panic resulting in the death of another Pakistani youngster. The argument is yet ongoing whether he is a diplomat or not, and about the motive behind the shooting. For an incident as serious as that, the US authorities took awfully long to claim diplomatic immunity for the gentleman — leaving aside the debate whether the Americans should have sought the option while reports suggested the accused was to claim it as an act in self-defence. The delayed `request` for immunity lent greater uncertainty to an already explosive situation which highlighted the uneasy nature of the Pak-US relationship. Groups in the country saw in the incident potential to whip up anti-US emotion and even the more objective Pakistanis termed it a test case for their government and other state institutions. Rule of law and the dispensing of justice on a non-discriminatory basis has been a subject close to Pakistanis` hearts in recent times. They want a fair trial. A large number of them are not all too pleased with what they see as US pressure on Islamabad. This complicates the situation, which can only be saved through a fair, transparent and uninterrupted hearing of the case.
A few things can be sorted out right now, though, in the interests of clarity, justice and equality in relationship. For instance, while so many voices here blame the Americans for trying to manufacture a diplomatic identity for the accused, what stops Islamabad from coming up with an answer to this crucial question? Surely, the records of the Pakistan government would show what category of visa its mission stamped on Mr David`s passport. Islamabad`s silence over the subject gives credence to all the talk as to how a weak government customarily seeks refuge in ambiguity at a time when it is faced with popular sentiment on one side and pressure from the world superpower on the other.

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[CENTER][U][B][SIZE="2"]Transition in Swat[/SIZE][/B][/U][/CENTER]
February 02, 2011

THE gradual handover of Swat from the army to civilian law-enforcement agencies, as reported in this newspaper yesterday, must be cautiously welcomed. The horror that was Swat under the ‘rule’ of the Taliban two years ago will not easily be forgotten, and locals will be fearful that a premature exit by the army may open the door to the return of the Taliban. However, from the few details officials have shared, it appears that a phased handover over a period of years is to take place, with the pace depending on the situation on the ground. A good idea in principle, but much will depend on its execution.
At least three things will be critical to success. First, infiltration from areas like Dir and Bajaur Agency must be guarded against. The army appears to be aware of this threat, but it is exceedingly difficult to protect against. Militants have gained access to the length and breadth of the country, setting off human bombs and causing other forms of mayhem. So success in Swat on this count must be judged against a realistic yardstick. Second, the problem of so-called ‘high-value targets’ still at large will need to be addressed. The factors contributing to the resilience of the Taliban are not fully understood, but it seems plausible that as long as the top commanders are not captured or eliminated, they will be plotting some kind of unrest. Patience and a solid information-gathering network are the only sure-fire ways to eventually find and remove top-level commanders from the field.
Third, the laws for dealing with terrorists and militants need to be overhauled urgently. This seemingly ‘procedural’ issue in fact has far-reaching consequences. In Swat alone it is estimated that there are perhaps 2,500 militants in the custody of the security agencies, but an uncertain legal framework means that the law has yet to start to take its course. Essentially, the security forces are faced with the unpleasant prospect of militants being set free because courts will find no other option under the existing laws. From the status of such persons in custody to strengthening the anti-terrorism court framework, many legal loopholes and inconsistencies need to be addressed. That they have yet to be resolved is a damning indictment of civilian indifference. The law and interior ministers are routinely seen and heard from, making all manner of statements that may or may not make sense to the average person. Why cannot they work instead on protecting Pakistan from militants more successfully? Lastly, as they leave Swat security forces must be reminded of the consequences of their last withdrawal, when locals seen as ‘army sympathisers’ were executed by returning militants. The current strategy will have failed if Swat’s population is left vulnerable as a result of it.

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[U][B][SIZE="2"]Renewable energy[/SIZE][/B][/U][/CENTER]

WHEN the country was going through a severe energy crisis last year, the president had called for stepping up the search for out-of-the-box, imaginative and bold solutions based on alternative energy to meet the country’s needs. One such solution that has emerged is a wind-powered turbine for road illumination. As reported in this paper, a locally designed pilot wind turbine has been installed on a streetlight in a major thoroughfare in Islamabad. The privately developed turbine harnesses energy from natural as well as traffic wind and stores it in a battery that can power the streetlight’s bulbs for 48 hours. The potential of this environmentally friendly innovation for saving expenditure on electricity generated from fossil fuels for urban public lighting — including highway illumination — is tremendous. This concept in amenity lighting can also provide illumination at locations that are remote from the electricity grid. It is a cost-effective outdoor lighting system that is simple to install almost anywhere without the need for digging, wiring or electricity. And the locally designed turbine costs much less than imported ones.
But all these advantages can only be reaped if there is official facilitation of the pilot turbine’s manufacture on a large scale and its widespread deployment by municipal authorities in their localities. In this respect, the interest and cooperation of agencies like the Capital Development Authority and the Engineering Development Board of the Ministry of Industries and Production in promoting the turbine is important. The widespread application of renewable energy — both wind and solar power — in government buildings and urban and highway lighting instead of using fossil fuels and gas will help the country save the latter two resources for more productive uses. Besides, foreign investors may be keen to cooperate in Pakistan’s renewable energy sector. There is, therefore, nothing to lose and much to gain from redoubling efforts to develop our renewable energy resources.

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[CENTER][U][B][SIZE="2"]Spiralling debt[/SIZE][/B][/U][/CENTER]
February 03, 2011

PAKISTAN’S public debt, including domestic and foreign liabilities, has crossed the internationally acceptable threshold. Additionally, it is in breach of the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act 2005. It may be too early for anyone to suggest that the country may default on payments. Nevertheless, the current level of public debt — Rs9.47trn, or 66 per cent of the GDP — is raising serious concerns at home and abroad about sustainability. These worries cannot be wished away by insisting, as the Ministry of Finance has in its mandatory debt policy statement for 2010/11, that the present debt level remains sustainable even if it is higher than the acceptable threshold. As a report in this newspaper pointed out, the total public debt in terms of government revenue has increased to 4.3 times during the last financial year from 4.1 times a year earlier. According to international standards, it should be around 3.5 per cent of the revenues. The debt servicing to revenue ratio, 40.4 per cent in the last fiscal year, is also much higher than the globally acceptable 30 per cent.
Even more worrying is the fact that the situation is continuing to worsen.
In the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up to September, the cash-strapped government borrowed Rs579bn from all possible sources. This has resulted in higher consumer goods’ inflation and the private sector being crowded out of the credit market. True, the damage caused by last summer’s floods, rising global oil and other commodity prices and the transfer of more financial resources to the provinces under the new National Finance Commission award have put an additional burden on the government’s limited resources. Such factors have also compelled it to increase borrowing to finance its expanding budgetary deficit. Yet it is difficult to absolve the government of its responsibilities towards the people, or ignore its failure to implement tax reforms, reduce wasteful spending and restructure loss-making state-owned enterprises in order to plug leakages. Additionally, it has done little to stop the corrupt from siphoning off billions of rupees.
The government needs to raise its tax revenues while cutting spending to fill the budgetary gap, restore investors’ confidence, pay for flood reconstruction and avoid a default on debt payments. There is always a limit to what others will lend. That threshold, it seems, has already been reached. The world is not ready to give Pakistan more money unless it is seen in control of the situation, with evident improvements in the debt position. Does the government have a plan to face the challenge?

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[B][U][SIZE="2"][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Lost opportunity[/SIZE][/CENTER][/SIZE][/U][/B]

THE floods experienced by Pakistan last year were calamitous. With over 20 million people affected and 5.4 million acres of arable land damaged, it will take years for the country to recover. The government is struggling to raise the funds for recovery and rehabilitation efforts, and the aid promised by other countries has proved slow to materialise. Given this scenario, it is extremely disheartening to learn that had there been more coordination with European weather monitors, Pakistan could have had warning of the floods and the disaster they left in their wake could have been mitigated. In research that has been accepted for publication, Prof Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology found that the floods could have been predicted if data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) had been processed into a model that took terrain into account. If this had been done, Pakistan would have known 8 to ten days in advance that mass flooding was going to occur. The London-based ECMWF has, however, said that the organisation only provides numerical forecasts to its 33 participating countries. No cooperating agreement exists between Pakistan and the forecasting centre.
Merely due to the lack of a cooperating agreement, Pakistan lost the opportunity to be forewarned. This underscores the need for the country to be plugged into a range of networks, any one of which could prove useful at any point. Yet, we cannot but wonder what the outcome would have been had Pakistan received the advance warning. The assumption is that the state would have put in place measures to mitigate damage, such as warning the public, evacuating the areas at risk, putting crisis response and management teams on the standby and shoring up emergency facilities. Would this have been done? When large parts of northern Pakistan started to flood, we knew that the water would travel downstream. Similarly, warnings for heavy rainfall in the south were received in advance. And yet, Sindh and Balochistan were the worst affected. Few, if any, mitigation measures were put in place there. Ultimately, the need is for the country to develop an efficient and coordinated disaster response network that can swing into action immediately.

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[B][U][CENTER]Total capitulation?[/CENTER][/U][/B]
February 04, 2011

ON Wednesday, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani referred in the National Assembly to the controversy over the blasphemy laws and explained that neither the government nor the speaker had “formed any committee” to “consider amending this law”. There have been numerous similar assurances since December, when it was first proposed that the blasphemy laws be reviewed. Given the incendiary proportions attained by the controversy, it is possible to believe that the government initially took a tactical decision to retreat. Little was to be gained by further inflaming — and thereby strengthening — those who were agitating against the review proposal. However, Prime Minister Gilani`s statement on Wednesday shows how dangerously far the government has allowed itself to be pushed on the back foot.
His comments may dampen the fires of controversy — and certainly that is needed. However, the apparently total capi- tulation over this issue bodes ill in the long term for moderate forces in the country. The bill proposing review had not even been admitted to the National Assembly`s agenda. At the helm of the government is a political party which claims to be the champion of citizens` rights. We must remind our leaders, as well as those irresponsibly engaged in fomenting unrest, that in terms of developing an equitable legislative code the way forward lies in reviewing and debating laws that may potentially be problematic. The proposal to review the controversial sections of the blasphemy laws is fundamentally removed from the question of religion. The issue is whether the legislation contains loopholes that make it vulnerable to misuse.
Given the lengthening shadows of extremism in the country, the government needs to strengthen its claims about its commitment to citizens` rights and its allegiance to the principles of the rule of law. The latter dictates that legislation alleged to be flawed should at least be reviewed. Any question of amendment can only come after that. It similarly dictates that those who break the law be prosecuted. While the government is involved in putting as much distance between itself and the blasphemy issue as pos- sible, the self-confessed killer of Punjab governor Salman Taseer, Malik Mumtaz Qadri, is being allowed to be thought of as a hero. On the same day that Prime Minister Gilani addressed the National Assembly, Jamaat-i-Islami Senator Prof Mohammad Ibrahim told a press conference in Peshawar that Mr Qadri had committed no crime. If such dangerous sentiments are not to become dominant, it is imperative that Mr Qadri`s trial be initiated as soon as possible, and be conducted in a fair and transparent manner.

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[U][B]Avoiding a spectacle[/B][/U][/CENTER]

A SUPREME Court bench has declared it will be framing charges against nine judges who took oath under Gen Musharraf`s PCO on Nov 3, 2007. These justices had contested the allegation that by doing so they had violated the SC order issued against the PCO the same day. Wednesday`s judgment was notable for declaring that SC and high court justices are not exempt from contempt of court proceedings due to their status as members of the higher judiciary. It does carry with it an element of even-handedness, indicating that no one, regardless of their position or status, is above the law. It also reaffirms that the judicial system will not stand for its members supporting any steps that would compromise its in dependence through extra- constitutional means.
The judgment has, however, paved the way for a trial in the SC that will pit one group of superior court judges against another in public view. Although they have been made dysfunctional, most of those being charged have not yet retired. There seems to be no precedent in Pakistan`s history for sitting judges being tried by their colleagues in the SC for contempt of court. Although this does not invalidate Wednesday`s judgment, it does indicate a need for propriety in the conduct of the trial. Supreme Court Bar Association President Asma Jahangir has suggested that the Supreme Judicial Council would be a better forum, but there is some danger this would result in proceedings simply being dropped. SJC hearings can only be initiated by the president, and it is unclear if he would be willing to do so in this case. But the spirit of her objection is worth taking into consideration; some level of propriety must be maintained, and the judiciary must not expose itself to a perception of point-scoring on personal or political grounds. There is also a view that the bench is singling out PCO judges by not charging Gen Musharraf, former prime minister Shaukat Aziz and corps commanders at the time, among others, for disobeying the Nov 3 order, and it would be welcome if the SC clarified its position on the matter.

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[B][U][CENTER]Tax fraud[/CENTER][/U][/B]
February 07, 2011

THE arrest of four persons linked to a sales tax fraud underlines the rampant corruption in the Federal Bureau of Revenue and legal loopholes offering incentives to the crooked. It exposes ineffectiveness of the efforts of successive governments to reform the corrupt tax administration and a defective tax policy. Tax frauds are not new to this country. Nor are they uncommon. In 2005, for example, the government ended up refunding Rs60bn in sales tax claims against the collection of Rs50bn. The official response was strange. It exempted major industries from the sales tax rather than bringing the swindlers to justice and correcting the system`s inadequacies.
Tax frauds of such magnitude are not possible without the connivance of a corrupt official machinery and lacunas in tax laws. This was also highlighted in a recent report of the federal tax ombudsman investigating pilferage of containers entering Pakistan under the transit trade pact with Afghanistan. The ombudsman`s report pointed out that the pilferage had caused a whopping loss of Rs37bn to the exchequer in four years. It said this magnitude of fraud was not possible without the help of customs officials and lack of checks. If the past is anything to go by, all those involved in causing losses of billions of rupees to the exchequer, and their abetters in the FBR, will escape punishment for their crime. There does not appear to be any precedent where a person or official involved in tax fraud has done time in jail. Little wonder then that the tax gap — simply put, the difference between tax owed and tax paid on time — has increased to 79 per cent in Pakistan against nine per cent in the UK and 22 per cent in the US. According to the World Bank`s Pakistan Tax Policy Report 2009, the amount of tax evaded in 2007-08 stood at Rs796bn
Tax pilferage — evasion and avoidance — is common across the world. But it is the extent of pilferage that is shaking the very foundations of Pakistan`s fiscal policy at the cost of the common people. The effects of tax pilferage can be far-reaching for government revenues as well as society because it leads to growth in the black economy and speculative investments. Incentives to pay taxes honestly lose their lustre. The government is also forced to impose more taxes, mostly indirect levies burdening the poor and the fixed-income segments of society, to raise revenues. It is, therefore, imperative to curb tax pilferage. That will not be possible unless tax administration and policy are revamped and tax fraud is treated as a very serious crime.

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[U][B]Celebrating literature[/B][/U][/CENTER]

TodayON Friday, the launch of the Karachi Literature Festival kicked off two days of panel discussions, book launches and poetry where some of the country`s most successful and well-loved writers discussed their work. The festival covered both English and Urdu fiction and non-fiction. Importantly, it was free and open to the public. With hundreds of people of all ages in attendance on just the first day, and a programme that ran well-attended from morning to late evening, the festival proved that there is clearly a demand for literary activity in Pakistan. Given lack of state funding and security concerns, opportunities to come together in public spaces to celebrate and understand cultural achievement have become far too rare. In the midst of difficult times, events like these allow us to do so despite the country`s challenges.
The next step would be to make the festival even more inclusive by moving to a more central location in the city. Of course there are security concerns, especially since international guests are involved. But the festival will only come to reflect the richness of the city it is named after and become an integral part of Pakistan`s cultural life if it opens itself up to more people. About 50,000 to 60,000 people are estimated to have attended last month`s five-day Jaipur Literary Festival in India, which attracts people from all across India and the world. While that is an ambitious example to aspire to, the organisers of the Karachi Literary Festival have created an annual event that has great potential. The hope is that with increased sponsorship they can sustain a more extensive event, including regional languages, and arrange for security in a central location. Pakistanis are starved of culture at a time of political and economic trouble, and events like this one are needed more than ever before.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Benazir probe[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]
February 09, 2011

THE plot thickens once again. The FIA submitted in court on Monday yet another report on its ongoing investigation into Benazir Bhutto’s murder. This time it has included Gen (retd) Musharraf’s name as one of the accused. Although no specific charges have been brought against him, the inclusion of clauses of ‘abetment’ and ‘conspiracy’ in the list of criminal charges suggests that some of the investigators believe Ms Bhutto’s assassination may have been the result of a much bigger plot. The current findings are in stark contrast to those of a report submitted last November — which ascribed responsibility solely to the TTP and its dead leader Baitullah Mehsud — hinting at a larger, state-sponsored plan rather than an isolated terrorist incident. That, in turn, has broader implications, suggesting that other senior military and government officials could potentially be charged with giving instructions to junior police officers and making it possible for terrorist elements to carry out the assassination.
The difference between this development and prior reports adds to the confusion, secrecy and delays that the murder probe has been cloaked in for the last three years. One would think, given Ms Bhutto’s importance for the party in power, that the administration would have made a genuine effort to get to the bottom of the crime. The request for a UN probe perhaps reflected a desire for an independent investigation unhampered by Pakistan’s political realities, but it was commissioned to be simply a fact-finding mission with no power to point fingers. When the November report was submitted, this paper claimed that the team had been prevented from questioning Gen Musharraf. Interior Minister Rehman Malik’s indignation about Monday’s charges against the general, and reports that he might insist these charges be withdrawn, are again raising questions about whether or not the administration is truly interested in getting to the bottom of the matter within a reasonable timeframe.
So far findings have remained vague and inconsistent. The government seems to be doing little to change that.
Since December 2007, Pakistanis have been looking for answers from, in turn, the investigation commissioned by the Musharraf government shortly after the assassination, the UN probe, various interim reports from the current investigation, and committees that have been formed along the way. But their findings have often been contradictory, and a clear set of answers has yet to emerge, adding to the general impression that deliberate efforts have been made by various quarters to hold back different pieces of evidence. Meanwhile, Ms Bhutto’s supporters and Pakistanis at large are still waiting to hear the truth about one of the country’s most significant political assassinations.

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[U][B][SIZE="2"]Kurram agreement[/SIZE][/B][/U][/CENTER]

IRONIC as the situation may be, the TTP has welcomed a peace agreement between the Shia and Sunni factions of Kurram Agency and pledged to abide by it. This was communicated by the group’s Kurram amir Fazal Saeed — wanted by the Government of Pakistan with a Rs5m bounty on his head — at a news conference. The militant leader added that those who violated the accord would be “punished in accordance with the Sharia” and assured the Shia community that it could use the Thall-Parachinar road without fear. The route has become a virtual death trap due to a Taliban blockade. Even convoys accompanied by security forces have been ambushed. Though the prospects for peace should be welcomed, there are reasons to be circumspect. Firstly, it is a clear sign that the state has lost its writ in an area when a wanted man guarantees a peace agreement. Secondly, the Taliban are the major reason for the area’s destabilisation. Can they be trusted to abide by the agreement? There have been peace deals in the past which have been most notable for the number of times they have been violated. There are also reports that the deal has the blessings of the Sirajuddin Haqqani network (believed to have established itself in Kurram) while the security establishment has accepted this role. The area — bordering Afghanistan — is of immense strategic importance and observers say the sectarian conflict was affecting the Haqqani network’s anti-Isaf activities across the border. There is a perception that although local militants may honour the agreement, groups from Hangu or Kohat may try and sabotage it.
Thousands have been killed, injured and displaced while scores of villages have been torched since violence began in 2007 with the Taliban’s arrival. However, the local administration and security forces are equally responsible for their abject failure in quelling the violence. For there to be genuine peace in Kurram the state — and not militants — must set the agenda. If peace is established, the government should initiate an investigation to take account of the human and material losses as a result of the violence, and the guilty must be brought to book.

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[B][U][SIZE="2"][CENTER]Will RTC deliver?[/CENTER][/SIZE][/U][/B]
February 10, 2011

THE round table conference called by President Zardari could serve a useful purpose provided it is not lost in political inanities and the agenda is focused on the country’s grim economic situation. What seriousness of intent could achieve is reflected in the substantial progress that talks between the PPP and the PML-N have made. The agenda from the very word go was the economy, and the two sides held what appeared to be well-structured talks on macroeconomic issues and fiscal discipline. While much remains to be done, and dirty politics often raise their menacing heads, the government and the major opposition party have continued to hold negotiations in a positive spirit to deve-lop consensus on a strategy for meeting the colossal economic challenges the nation faces. Will the participants in the RTC be guided by this spirit?
Larger conferences with political agendas serve to accentuate differences rather than reinforce unity of purpose and develop a programme of action in the larger national interest. As experience shows, RTCs have seldom recorded progress in concrete terms and more often than not have served as platforms for politicians to reiterate known positions and make propaganda capital out of the get-together. The overall economic and political situation being what it is, the last thing this overly politicised nation needs is another bout of futile political point-scoring. As the Pakistan Business Council has pointed out, the economy faces problems which are “perennial and complex”. Briefly, these include the grave energy crisis, the reformed general sales tax, higher revenue generation, cuts in expenditure at the federal and provincial levels, smaller cabinets, loan recovery, the white elephants which most state-owned corporations have become, IMF conditionalities and a feared hike in oil prices. These issues should be tackled by experts in a non-partisan spirit to find short- and long-term solutions in a way that gives a genuine boost to the economy and is acceptable to the people.
The RTC called by the president would be meaningful if the government shows its seriousness by outlining the objectives of the conference and party heads are accompanied by professionals of high calibre who can come up with effective solutions to the economic problems ravaging post-flood Pakistan. Unfortunately, our political parties do not bother to develop specialised panels combining expertise with party philosophy. While, contrary to what many experts believe, Pakistan is not yet in the throes of an economic meltdown, there is no doubt that it is facing a grave financial crisis. National consensus is needed for a durable solution and the RTC provides an excellent opportunity to forge one.

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[B][U][CENTER][SIZE="2"]Gas pipeline attacks[/SIZE][/CENTER][/U][/B]

AS this paper reported yesterday, another set of gas pipelines was blown up by separatists in Balochistan on Tuesday. Although this was only the latest in a series of such attacks that have flared up since the first week of January, it was a particularly serious incident. Unlike all but one earlier incident, it has significantly disrupted supply. Gas has been cut off to nine districts at a time of severe cold, affecting not just homes but also industrial units and CNG stations. Supply was also cut off to a 120MW power plant, which has worsened the already dismal electri-city shortage that hit the province over the weekend due to an attack on transmission pylons. Electricity transmitted to 15 districts is now down from 1,150MW to a mere 60 to 70MW. Over large swathes of Balochistan, even in Quetta, people are being forced to survive in extreme weather conditions with no gas and no power to speak of.
Baloch separatist groups have claimed responsibility for the ongoing attacks on pipelines as well as Saturday’s attack on electricity pylons. It remains true that the people of the province have long made legitimate demands about development, revenue-sharing reforms and control over their own secur-ity, and that these have hardly been addressed. Yesterday’s story reminded us, for example, that gas was cut off to only nine districts because the other 21 had never had it to begin with. That the residents of a gas-rich province live without it even under ordinary circumstances is an irony not lost on anyone. But by disrupting what little development exists, separatists are compounding the miseries of the very people whose rights they claim to be struggling for. More than anyone else, it is the Baloch themselves who are suffering from these violent disruptions in access to basic services.

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13-feb-2011
After Mubarak
WAS Friday the day the people of the Middle East began to reclaim their region for themselves? Amid emotional scenes that will live long in the memory of Egyptians and people across the world, the largest country in the Middle East celebrated the end of President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year-old rule. Eighteen days of the most extraordinary, peaceful, broad-based and non-ideological protests led by the youth of Egypt made what was surely the unthinkable three weeks ago become reality. And yet, in this region replete with authoritarian dictators and repressive monarchs, there is still great uncertainty going forward. In Egypt itself, much remains to be answered. A military which has guided the country from behind the scenes since a 1952 coup overthrew the monarchy is now running Egypt, promising to respect the people’s wishes. But Mr Mubarak has left behind a country plagued with deep problems, from gross economic disparities to state institutions that have been withered away by corruption and nepotism to a stunted political system in which moderate alternatives have been systematically sidelined. Ensuring that a stable, responsive democracy will emerge from the detritus of the Mubarak era will be a task almost as monumental as getting rid of the man Egyptians had dubbed ‘the pharaoh’.

Beyond the borders of Egypt, however, hopes and fears will rise even higher. Four weeks since the ouster of the Tunisian strongman, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, a second fixture of the Middle East in recent decades has been toppled. From Yemen to Bahrain and Iraq to Syria, rulers have scrambled to respond to a rising tide of popular discontent and the future is anything but certain. Some will attempt economic quick-fixes, such as in Bahrain where several thousand dollars are to be doled out to every family and in Yemen where salaries of government and military personnel have been increased. Others will try to ease some of the more repressive laws and measures in place, as in Algeria where the government has promised to lift the two-decade-old state of emergency and in Syria where access to the Internet and social-networking sites is to be loosened.

Ultimately, however, the true measure of reform will be to what extent rulers across the Middle East respond to their people’s demand for a greater say in how their affairs are regulated. The world over and through much of history, rulers have argued that their people are ‘not ready for democracy’. But the people of the Middle East rightly appear to think otherwise. Their hopes may yet be dashed, but at least it is time to ask if it is fair to ask the people of the Middle East to continue to pay the heavy cost of ‘stability’ in the region?


Faiz centenary

FAIZ Ahmed Faiz might not have liked the ideological impurities of our times but, as a people’s man, he would have approved of the inspired enthusiasm that currently afflicts his countrymen. He stood for the empowerment of the people and preached expressing the heartfelt. The tradition continues, with some success. There have been a few, even if minor, victories at home that in a way reconfirm workers’ power. And there have been a couple of revolutions in parts of the world that Pakistan shares certain similarities with. How these revolutions pan out only time will tell. But the fact that mighty thrones have been shaken and crowns sent flying into the air renews the people’s hope and longing for a true dawn in the country — one that would compensate for the false, dark beginnings of the past. It’s a moment to celebrate the supremacy of the people and to hum Faiz — the poet who combined subtlety, commitment, tradition and vision for a most effective communication with his audience. Exactly a century after his birth, Faiz accompanies the people in all their struggles against oppressive authorities that can do no better than try and quell free thought and demands for rights.

Faiz is one of the most quoted poets in the country these days, which is a vindication for the gentle soul who was once decried on this very land as a traitor for siding with the oppressed. Today, he also gives expression to the aspirations of the very groups which had openly opposed his thinking, which was as pro-people back then as it is now. But beyond the superficial as well as instances of outright opportunism, it would be in our interest if we were to fully understand and heed the ideas Faiz espoused — not only his views on the system of governance and politics, but his stand on the amalgam called culture which remains very much a taboo subject in Pakistan. Perhaps it is these old taboos that have prevented the government from turning the Faiz centenary into a truly state event. Faiz deserved it, not that he needed it.

Deadlock resolved

THE stalemate between PIA’s employees and the flag carrier’s management has been resolved, but after incurring very high costs. The four-day strike ended late on Friday with the resignation of Aijaz Haroon, the airline’s managing director, which was a key demand of the strikers. The episode concluded when the federal interior and defence ministers reached an understanding with representatives of the joint action committee of PIA employees, with government assurance that all demands would be met. One of the other key demands was that an alleged route-sharing deal with Turkish Airlines be cancelled. The defence minister said since he never received the purported MoU between the two carriers no action could be taken. The standoff resulted in the cancellation of over 500 flights, countless stranded passengers and mounting economic losses for an airline already in the red. PIA’s spokesperson said the strike resulted in losses of over Rs2bn. The impact the episode has had on the national economy has yet to be calculated. Then there was the massive inconvenience caused to the flying public.

The government — and the PIA management — totally bungled the affair. Violence was seen at Karachi airport on Friday when a peaceful demonstration was broken up by police aided by stick-wielding hoodlums. Violence also marred protests earlier in the week. The unions are also partly responsible for the situation because of their rigidity as well as the fact that a section of employees seemed to have had a more personal axe to grind. Was the protest really about the alleged deal or about the removal of one man? All sides involved must ask themselves what has been gained by four days of chaos, further enfeebling an already infirm carrier. It must also be asked if less destructive methods of protest — and less clumsy ways to handle them — could have been employed.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"][FONT="Georgia"]NOC nonsense[/FONT][/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

[B]February 25, 2011[/B]


IN an ominous development, the interior minister told the National Assem-bly on Wednesday that students wishing to proceed abroad on scholarships — as well as artists — would have to obtain a no-objection certificate from his ministry before they can leave Pakistan. Mr Rehman Malik did not give a reason for this bizarre decision, yet it was supposedly taken after the embarrassing episode in which singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan was detained by Indian authorities at Delhi`s airport as he attempted to board a flight with a hefty amount of undeclared cash. The problems faced by Pakistani medical students in Cuba are also another possible reason for the move. Reports say intelligence agencies “would see which country was providing scholarships [to students] and for what purpose”.

Why are such steps — more suited to police states — being taken during the tenure of a democratic government? If such a move had been made during a military dictatorship perhaps it would have been unsurprising. But how can it be justified by a dispensation which claims to respect fundamental rights? Why does the government seem intent on limiting Pakistanis` contacts with the world? Already numerous foreign scholarships are wasted as the relevant ministries fail to advertise and inform students about them. For those students who manage to secure scholarships on their own this step will only add a bureaucratic hurdle in their way. NOCs can be difficult to obtain even for government employees, so one can imagine the hassle a student will have to put up with in order to get the document. As for artists, performers already have to go through a complex procedure to secure foreign visas. Why make things more complicated?

More importantly, legal experts believe that the NOC idea may clash with the spirit of the constitution. It militates against the right to travel which, according to judicial precedence, is part of a citizen`s fundamental rights. In essence, the NOC will serve as a permit to leave the country with the interior ministry having the final say about who can and cannot travel abroad. What safeguards will be in place to prevent abuse and ensure that granting the permit will not be an arbitrary process? How will it be ensured that the government of the day will not use this NOC to prevent certain students and artists and other people it doesn`t like from leaving Pakistan? These are very serious questions the rulers need to consider before implementing this bad idea. It should be nipped in the bud before it is allowed to impinge on people`s rights and restrict free travel. Such questionable measures have no place in a democratic society.

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[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"][FONT="Georgia"]Excluding Pakistan[/FONT][/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]


TALKS on Afghanistan without Pakistan are like playing Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. No instigation to anti-Americanism is intended, but there is a lot of disorientation in Washington`s policy. On Wednesday, Defence Secretary Robert Gates welcomed the Afghan defence and interior ministers to turn bilateral what was originally a tripartite conference. Surely, there are better ways available for America to express its displeasure over the Raymond Davis affair. Pakistan`s exclusion from security talks on Afghanistan`s future seems to be stupefying and does not advance the cause dear to Washington — regional stability and a peaceful post-America Afghanistan. At the same time, a high-level American military team, which included Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm Mullen and Nato forces commander in Afghanistan Gen Petraeus, had a meeting with Gen Kayani in Muscat, with both sides pledging to “explore new ways to better coordinate military operations”.

Unlike its hurried disengagement with Pakistan after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, America this time has repeatedly expressed its resolve to have a long-term relationship with this country. More economic and military aid to Pakistan has been pledged, and Obama administration officials continue to acknowledge from time to time the role Pakistan has played in the war on terror. Yet it is equally common to hear unpalatable remarks on `safe havens` and Pakistan`s purported failure to `do more`. To sustain a long-term and mutually beneficial relationship, both sides need to resolve if not ignore passing irritants instead of allowing them to sour their relationship. Pakistan`s exclusion from the Pentagon talks comes at a time when the Obama administration has started the negotiating process with the Taliban, and there are reports some militant leaders may be released from Guantanamo. Ultimately, there has to be a negotiated settlement if Afghanistan is to have peace after three decades of conflict, and this cannot be achieved without a goal-oriented unity of purpose between the four parties concerned — Washington, Kabul, Islamabad and the militant leadership on both sides of the Durand Line. This strategic aim is too important to be allowed to fall victim to a diplomatic incident.


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[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"][FONT="Georgia"]UK visas[/FONT][/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]


AT a press conference on Wednesday, the UK immigration minister announced that his country`s visa policy for Pakistanis had been eased and the processing time for applications would be reduced, noting the importance to his country of attracting the “best and brightest” Pakistanis. This is welcome news given the severe delays that Pakistanis faced in 2009 in acquiring visas to the UK. At the time, the British High Commission admitted there was a backlog of 14,000 applications. The delay was especially problematic for students who missed the start of the university year; some of them had also deposited money for housing and higher education in the UK while waiting for visas that, in many cases, arrived too late. And in 2010, a number of Pakistani passports submitted for UK visa applications were found to have been misplaced. In addition to depriving both countries of economic and educational benefits, these problems left Pakistanis wary of trying to visit the UK and soured diplomatic relations, albeit temporarily, between the two countries.

In that context, the immigration minister`s announcement that business visas will now be processed in five days and normal visas in eight to 10 days is a positive move. Pakistanis have a long history of travel, education and immigration to the UK, and they are likely to respond to these changes eagerly. The question now is whether or not the new timeframes will be implemented successfully. Delays and other problems over the last two years were thought to be a result of the routing of applications to Abu Dhabi, a process that was launched in 2008 and will still not be discontinued for all visas. British officials claimed that technical reasons were the cause of the delay. Whatever the reason, one hopes the lapses have been rectified and that there is no delay in processing the applications.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"][FONT="Georgia"]Tax on agriculture[/FONT][/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

[B]Wednesday 9th March 2011[/B]


THE imposition of tax on income from agriculture may involve political risks but is necessary. The distinction made between incomes from agricultural and non-agricultural sources for the purpose of taxation runs counter to the principle of an equitable tax system and forces the state, in its effort to boost revenues, to overtax a few, and to even tax those who should not be paying any taxes at all. A country like Pakistan, with one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios (less than nine per cent) in the world, cannot afford to exempt agriculture or, for that matter, income from other sources from taxation. That is, not unless the state is totally unresponsive to the development needs of the people.

The importance of ridding the economy of tax exemptions for the rich and powerful has become more visible in recent years because of the yawning gap between the government’s falling revenues and its rising expenditure. Even massive cuts in development and non-development spending are not helping, while the fiscal deficit is projected to balloon to above eight per cent unless tax revenues are boosted. Growers are so sensitive about the issue that the slightest mention of tax on their incomes brings them together on one platform across the political divide — even if it means standing up to their party’s leadership. The question thus arises: will the provinces heed Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh’s latest piece of advice and take action to effectively bring income from agriculture into the tax net to boost revenues and the country’s abysmally low tax ratio? The provincial governments may well avoid treading this thorny path if they can at a time when speculations of early elections are rife. It is hard to imagine the PML-N government in Punjab and the PPP government in Sindh taxing agricultural income at the moment, and risk losing the support of the influential lobby of big land-holders in parliament.

The provinces did not take any action to tax agricultural income in the budget for the current financial year — in spite of the fact that they had made a commitment at the time of the finalisation of the current NFC award to tax agriculture, real estate and other untaxed areas of the economy. The leadership of all political parties must realise that their failure to support equity in taxation for short-term political gains would be disastrous for the economy and add to the hardship of the common man. The more they delay taking the tough decision, the more difficult it will become for them to stop the economic rot.

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[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"][FONT="Georgia"]Call for intervention[/FONT][/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]


PUNJAB Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s recent telephone call to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani raises hopes that there may still be room for a working relationship between the PPP and PML-N. But there is more beneath the surface: a post-contact proposal by Mr Sharif that practically seeks a role for the army and judiciary as guarantors gives rise to suspicions about the politicians’ ability to solve their affairs without help from influential moderators. The relationship between the PPP and PML-N is central to the continuation of the current power set-up in the country. And the recent contact between Mr Sharif and Mr Gilani gains additional significance since it has come at a time when the PML-N appears to have been readying itself to challenge the government. The Sharif brothers have thrown the PPP out of the Punjab government, and PML-N leader Mian Nawaz Sharif has in recent weeks warned the federal government of a long march on the pattern of the one which led to the restoration of the judiciary in 2009.

The latest link-up between an aggressive Mr Sharif and an extremely defensive Mr Gilani has been blessed by Mr Nawaz Sharif. The Punjab chief minister confirmed this while talking to the media in Lahore on Monday. But considering the peculiar way in which political reconciliation works in Pakistan, the role of the other, supposedly apolitical actors behind such an effort cannot be ruled out. Even on its own, Mr Sharif’s call aims to bring these actors into the open. He has suggested the involvement of the army and the judiciary in a proposed national conference with a mandate to finding solutions to the many problems the country faces at present. The proposed conference must also invite the heads of political parties, the Punjab chief minister says, but most crucially he wants the army and the judiciary by his side. As unlikely as it may seem, the Punjab chief minister has delivered the message loud and clear: he wants intervention even if the current set-up created by President Asif Zardari and Mr Gilani remains intact as a facade.

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[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"][FONT="Georgia"]Echoes of McCarthyism[/FONT][/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]


AMERICAN congressman Peter King’s attempts to focus on the supposed radicalisation of American Muslims bear stark resemblance to Senator Joseph McCarthy’s Cold War anti-communist hysteria. On Thursday, Mr King will open hearings to investigate the threat he feels radicalised Muslims pose to the US. Many in the US have dismissed the Republican congressman’s efforts as a witch-hunt, with the White House sending messages to American Muslims that it doesn’t believe in “guilt by association”. Hundreds of people of different faiths also rallied in New York’s Times Square on Sunday to denounce the hearings as “xenophobic”. The problem is not with investigating certain Muslims for possible links to terrorism, but the fact that Mr King seems to be working as per an agenda. He says more than 80 per cent of mosques in the US are run by extremists. However, as a New York Times editorial pointed out, he has never backed up the allegation with solid facts. Mr King also says US Muslims have generally refused to cooperate with law-enforcement officials. This assertion is also questionable as a recent study done by two major American universities has shown that Muslims in America have constantly provided information that has helped identify terror suspects.

No doubt, mosques in the US or elsewhere should not be misused to preach extremism. Also, a decade after 9/11, terrorism continues to pose a threat to global security. Yet, singling out the American Muslim community is unfair and it seems likely that the hearings will achieve little. Instead of such counter-productive measures, the American Muslim community and the US government should continue to work together against terrorism while the larger issues that fuel extremism must also be addressed. Quite frankly, such hearings seem out of place in a democracy and risk alienating the Muslim community in America from the mainstream.