Challenges ahead

1st jan, 2012

HAVING bid goodbye to a tumultuous 2011, Pakistanis will certainly be hoping for a less traumatic 2012. But that will depend on certain political, security and international factors which will shape the country`s future in the near-term. Start with domestic politics. From Senate elections to perhaps a general election, the year ahead offers real opportunities to nudge the transition to democracy ahead. Equally, the civil-military imbalance and fraught relations between the political government and the Supreme Court could stamp out the nascent democratic process yet again. Much will depend on how the PPP-led government responds to threats, real and perceived, and the strategy it adopts.

The run-up to the Senate election in March was always expected to be a tumultuous period but the PPP has not helped its case with shockingly poor responses to political crises. Be it the handling of the `memogate` affair or working to ensure that a more aggressive PML-N doesn`t result in a political opposition that is, inadvertently or not, undermining the democratic process, the PPP brain trust has been found wanting in every regard. It seems that the party`s default response is to rely for its survival on the constitutional impregnability of the president and the political difficultly of voting out the present government in the National Assembly. But by concentrating on the numbers game, the federal government has allowed political crises to snowball into a state of near paralysis for the nation. From handling relations with the military that are on the verge of meltdown to keeping an increasingly active SC from tying the government into knots to responding to the demand from the political opposition for early elections, the government will need a better game plan if 2012 is to be the year in which the stage is set for a smooth transition from one parliament and set of provincial assemblies to the next.

On the economic front, the challenge will perhaps be even more difficult. Experts warn that by the second half of the year the country could be in the grip of a full-blown economic crisis if current trends continue. Whether Pakistan is forced to return to the IMF in a state of default or can salvage its fiscal position will depend on several factors: the government`s willingness to take certain immediate and painful steps to rein in the budget deficit; the continuation of foreign inflows that keep pressures on the rupee from exploding; and, crucial to it all, the government`s ability to resist the temptation to indulge in reckless election-year fiscal and economic policies in a patronage-driven political system. Thus far, there is little reason to believe the federal government has the inclination or the ability to steer the economy out of crisis. The economic mismanagement also has repercussions for national stability: from law and order issues created by protests and riots over gas and electricity shortages to the political crisis fanned by a security establishment under the guise of concern for the national economic well-being.

On the external front, relations with US and India and the so-called `endgame` in Afghanistan will be key. With the US, the hope is for a scaled-down relationship minus the crises. Much will depend on whether the US and Pakistan come closer on what the `end state` in Afghanistan ought to be once the US/Isaf combat missions wind down in 2014. A defiant, emotional response to an increasingly hostile US will only compound Pakistan`s problems. For now, the Pakistani attempt to redefine the relationship with the US has been met with `strategic patience` from the US. Push too hard and that patience may run out. With India, bold steps such as redefining the trading relationship could be pushed through, but with the civilians and the military at odds domestically and elections on the cards, can the big issues be tackled in 2012?

For every positive in Pakistan — the public rejecting military intervention in favour of the democratic process and politicians of every hue apologising to the Baloch and recognising the problems there, for example — there is a negative — the PTI`s lack of a policy platform and the on-going campaign of extra-judicial killings in Balochistan. Perhaps the best that can be hoped from 2012 is for fresh pain to be avoided and for the healing process to begin.

Still a long way to go
From the Newspaper | Editorial |
2nd Jan 2012


THE on-again, off-again process of talks with the Afghan Taliban appears to be making some tentative headway once again. Reports in the local and international media suggest that the Taliban may be on the verge of opening a political office in Doha, Qatar, and that several Afghan prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay may be released (though it is still not clear where they will be sent). In return, the Taliban may pledge to distance themselves from Al Qaeda and to negotiate with the Afghan government. While a political end to the war in Afghanistan is what the international community, the Afghan government and perhaps even the Taliban appear to desire, there is still a long way to go before it can become a reality.

At this point in time, there are more questions than answers. First of all, with all the talk of the need for talks, what signal does that send to the Taliban? If the Taliban conclude that they are in the driving seat in Afghanistan — a perception that may be at odds with the battlefield reality but nevertheless is the dominant narrative emerging from Afghanistan at the moment — will there be incentive enough to delink from Al Qaeda and renounce violence? And if the Taliban do engage in talks, even the most basic elements of a deal are far from clear. For example, will the Taliban seek recognition for their leader, Mullah Omar, as the amirul momineen? And would the Taliban really be willing to work within some kind of coalition framework with the Afghan government?

The outlines of what a relatively peaceful Afghanistan would look like in a situation where no group has total sway and all power centres continue to maintain some clout has been clear for some time: the warlords, the ethnic power brokers, the Taliban and the Haqqanis, etc would probably continue to hold significant influence in their respective bastions under the umbrella of a loose-knit federation that is weak enough to not threaten the respective sub-national power centres and strong enough to be able to take decisions in a small set of areas where a national policy is called for. However, desirable as that end may be, Afghanistans various domestic power centres are not known for making decisions that serve the collective good. The US and the Afghan government will need to try and balance the impossible, both in terms of domestic players and regional and extra-regional powers out to protect their interests or project power in Afghanistan. How far they succeed will have far-reaching consequences for this region, Pakistan in particular. Suffice to say, a dominant Taliban in Afghanistan will be a
danger to everyone.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Deadly country
Jan 2nd 2012


THE outgoing year has not been kind to those in journalism. A report launched on Friday by a media organisation says that working conditions for journalists in Pakistan are becoming riskier, particularly against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the northwest and Balochistan. While this country is not alone in being a danger zone — with 17 journalists killed, 2011 was deemed the worst year for journalists in South Asia — the fact is that of this total count, 12 were Pakistanis. The report noted that while journalists are targeted with impunity by militants, there have also been suspicions about the role of the security agencies in the kidnapping, killing or intimidation of journalists.

This report is hardly alone in its conclusions. The view of Pakistan as a dangerous place for journalists is shared by watchdog bodies across the board. The Committee to Protect Journalists placed the country amongst the deadliest states in the world for journalists in 2010, ranking it at number 10 on its Impunity Index. The latter highlights countries where journalists are killed regularly but governments fail to solve the crime. Here lies the problem: this is a deadly country for journalists not only because they are killed, but also because the state has consistently refused to pursue the killers. Cases are rarely — if ever — investigated thoroughly. Some argue that not all journalists killed can be said to have died in the line of duty, or that allegations that state agencies are involved are baseless. Both these points can be settled only if there are credible investigations. The death of Saleem Shahzad is a case in point, and ought to be taken as a litmus test for the government’s will. Although the set-up of an inquiry commission was announced in June, little progress has been reported. Unless the circumstances of Mr Shahzad’s killing and that of other journalists this past year are made public, the state will continue to send out the signal that journalists can be silenced with impunity. Meanwhile, the fog of suspicion surrounding the role of law-enforcement authorities in this regard will grow steadily more dense.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Nato consignments
Jan 3rd 2012

THE chaos resulting from Pakistan`s halting of the transport of Nato/Isaf goods is worsening. Since the decision was taken in protest against the Nov 26 attacks on border check posts, hundreds of containers carrying goods bound for Afghanistan, and unloaded before the ban was imposed, have piled up. In the absence of a decision on what is to be done with these goods, facilities at the Karachi and Bin Qasim ports have been clogged while the manoeuvring space for materials imported and exported as a matter of course by Pakistan has also decreased. While the pile-up slowed down in recent weeks as the passage of ships carrying Nato/Isaf goods came to a halt, Saturday saw the docking at Karachi port of the US vessel Freedom. Two more vessels are due soon, although the port is already severely congested.

While there has been no apparent breakthrough in Pakistan-US relations, the fact that Freedom was allowed to berth at Karachi port raises the question of whether any agreement, tacit or otherwise, has been reached. Clarity on the issue is urgently required, for Nato/Isaf goods already stored at various terminals have not been sent on, and neither has any clear-cut decision on the matter been announced. Apparently, two issues lie at the heart of the matter: political posturing between the US and Pakistan, and finances. If the stumbling block is the former, the government needs to ensure that its firm stance does not redound and result in the clogging of key port facilities. Some, however, believe that pressure tactics are being employed as Pakistan wants to impose an additional transit fee on goods` transport. This dimension is relatively simple to resolve. There have also been concerns lately of the cost the Nato/Isaf goods` transport is extracting from the country`s road network. However, this constitutes muddling the issues for these goods were being shifted through local transportation companies and the required taxes and tolls were being paid. The point that Pakistan needs to settle is whether or not it is ready to keep the supply line open, and at what fee. The mode of transport is not germane to the matter. Indeed, if Pakistan wishes to cooperate, the transport of Nato/Isaf goods to Afghanistan could be an effective means of resuscitating the railways.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Taliban join hands
Jan 4th 2012

CONFIRMING recent speculation, the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban have announced a joint focus on fighting the US/Isaf troops in Afghanistan. What this means in the Pakistani context is that the TTP will likely scale back its attacks inside the country, meaning a drop in violence. From the narrowest and most myopic point of view, this will be viewed as a good thing for Pakistan in the short term. But is the formation of the Shura-i-Murakbah, a five-member council representing the who’s who of militancy, the Waliur Rehman, Hakeemullah Mehsud, Gul Bahadur, Mullah Nazir and Haqqani groups, in any way a welcome development for us?
First, the caveats. There is still some uncertainty about the extent to which the agreement between the Afghan Taliban and parts of the TTP can be enforced. The splintering of the TTP in Pakistan has led to many offshoots with agendas of their own.

Even with the ‘big five’ represented in the Shura-i-Murakbah it’s not clear to what extent they will reorient towards Afghanistan to the exclusion of activities inside Pakistan. Having said that, the danger to Pakistan is a broader one. With sections of the Pakistani Taliban announcing their intention to focus on Afghanistan, have we slipped closer to being labelled as a ‘sponsor of terrorism’ in the international community? Since 9/11 and the start of the so-called war on terror, Pakistan has publicly and consistently maintained that it will not allow its soil to be used for terrorist acts abroad. To the extent that was happening, whether through the Haqqani group or the Taliban using Pakistan as a sanctuary, the groups in question downplayed their use of Pakistani territory. And the Pakistani state suggested it was unable to seal a lengthy and porous border. What’s changed now is primarily the international community’s mood. Patience with Pakistan is running perilously low and the tolerance for misbehaviour may no longer be there.

Does it make sense for us to flirt with attracting further international opprobrium in order to achieve the most limited of gains in terms of a short hiatus in violence inside the country? And by allowing TTP elements to once again push for closer ties with the Afghan Taliban, what happens when the ‘goal’ in Afghanistan is achieved? Would they not then turn their sights back on Pakistan, stronger and more motivated than ever? We ought to remember two things: one, the TTP has wrought great damage on Pakistan and will seek to do so again; two, an Al Qaeda-TTP-Afghan Taliban combine would be devastating for the region.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Gas from Iran
From the Newspaper | Editorial |

AMERICA doesn`t seem to view the Pakistan-Iran gas deal as an economic issue linked to Islamabad`s desperate attempt to tackle the acute energy crisis. On Tuesday, the State Department appeared to be reminding Islamabad that the gas pipeline project would constitute a violation of the sanctions Washington has imposed on Tehran. Iran is already under several layers of UN and US sanctions, but Tuesday`s statement comes on the heels of another law, signed over the weekend by President Barack Obama, forbidding transactions with Iran`s central bank. The latest American position on the pipeline issue, we are ready to assume, doesn`t form part of the stand-off that has characterised US-Pakistan ties since the Salala attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and soured a relationship that has been in decline since the Raymond Davis-Abbottabad affair last summer. On Dec 27, addressing a rally in Larkana on the anniversary of Benazir Bhutto`s assassination, President Asif Ali Zardari reiterated Pakistan`s resolve to go ahead with the deal with Iran.

The recent riots that rocked northern Pakistan are a small indication of the way the energy crisis is spinning out of control. Though the protests stemmed from the government policy on CNG, they are part of the larger energy crisis that includes the yawning gap between supply and demand in power production by means hydel and thermal, and the drain on Pakistan`s exchange reserves because of its dependence on oil imports. Obviously, Pakistan has itself to blame for the energy disaster because of its failure to plan and execute long-term projects. The water-hoarding capa-city of the Tarbela and Mangla dams has declined because of decades of silting, de-silting being costly, and this has led to a fall in power production. At the same time, oil and gas exploration in energy-rich Balochistan has come to a halt because of terrorism and lawlessness, and the Lakhra gas project has made no progress. With the Turkmenistan pipeline through Afghanistan still a pipe dream, gas from Iran is the only feasible alternative for Pakistan.

On Tuesday, the Economic Coordination Committee took a major step in this direction by approving a $200m sovereign guarantee for the Iran gas project and also agreed in principle to the appointment of an advisory consortium led by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. While Pakistan will have to pursue the move with speed and determination, Islamabad expects the US to look at the gas project as Pakistan`s economic issue and de-link it not only from Washington`s relationship with Iran but also from the mess in which US-Pakistan ties are mired today.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

New provinces
Jan 5th 2012

THE debate over the creation of new provinces is turning into a textbook case of the promotion of political interests over common sense and even genuinely held beliefs. With a number of mainstream parties jumping into the fray in the National Assembly on Tuesday, it became obvious what their goals really were: to score points against political opponents, to win points among certain groups of voters, and to try to set up new provincial boundaries that could be politically favourable in the future. Each party`s support for, or opposition to, various proposed divisions of provinces was in line with its political ambitions, alliances and rivalries.

What got lost in all of this was the notion that any such changes, whether for administrative purpo-ses or linguistic, historical or nationalistic reasons, should arise from within the provinces themselves rather than being imposed from the top down. While we support the idea of more provinces, and for cultural, linguistic and historical reasons a separate unit in south Punjab appears to be the obvious first move, the history of Pakistan`s creation cannot be forgotten in this debate. This is not a country that created its provinces; the provinces themselves came together to create Pakistan. Such a significant decision about which groups they represent or how they need to govern themselves more effectively should arise from their own populations. The constitution itself reflects this; the creation of a new province would require not just a two-thirds majority to be in favour of it in both houses of parliament, but also in the assembly of the province in question. The MQM spent consider- able energy on Tuesday demanding a National Assembly debate on its resolution calling for divisions of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the prime minister added to this his support for a Seraiki province in southern Punjab, in turn eliciting dissent from other parties. Given the historical and constitutional arguments that these debates should originate at the provincial level, this sound and fury achieved little beyond strengthening political divisions and distracting lawmakers from the series of more urgent problems that Pakistan is facing.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Declaration of assets
From the Newspaper | Editorial |
Jan 6th 2012


IF the process of accountability and transparency is to be meaningful in any way, the first step is applying the notion across the board wherever it is required. The federal cabinet took a step in the right direction when on Wednesday it agreed to amend the 1964 Promotion and Service Rules to make it mandatory for everyone drawing remunerations from the public exchequer to make public the details of their assets. This would apply to civil servants as well as members of the judiciary and the armed forces. Information Minister Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan told a news conference that “While details of assets of parliamentarians are filed and published every year, the government has supported a private member`s bill to publish assets … so that the process of accountability is across the board …” The proposal has been forwarded to the relevant parliamentary committee.

The decision has drawn some criticism on the grounds that it may be linked to what is being perceived as the current `confrontation` between the elected government and other arms of the state. While such a motive would be highly unsavoury, the move itself ought to be welcomed. There is no reason why, in the interests of transparency, those whose salaries are funded by taxpayers` money should not be required to make public details of their assets — declarations that could be used to discourage corrupt or unethical practices.

It is here, however, that the difficulty lies. It is worth asking at this juncture how the country has benefited in any meaningful way from other, similar, efforts towards accountability. Take the requirement that parliamentarians must make public the details of their assets. Such declarations are made routinely and while they frequently draw media attention for appearing to be misrepresentative, there are few — if any — cases in which anyone has been investigated on the suspicion of having submitted a falsified declaration. The lack of such follow-up renders the declaration requirement meaningless. Further, there is a need to close loopholes that allow the issuance of misleading declarations — ones that reflect the assets of just the individual, for example, as opposed to providing a fuller picture of their wealth and income. Ultimately, there is no getting away from the fact that for any such moves to bear fruit, there is a need to link up asset declarations with the payment of taxes, in itself an issue that requires long-overdue reform. Only from this starting point can begin the process of gauging the true wealth of public figures and ensuring that the public exchequer is not defrauded in any way.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

FC killings
From the Newspaper | Editorial |
Jan 7th 2012

FRIDAY`S report that 15 Frontier Constabulary personnel have been brutally murdered by the Taliban is a reminder that we are not out of the woods yet. The decline in terrorist attacks in 2011 had led to some hope that Pakistan`s Islamist militancy problem is increasingly being brought under control. But this ruthless act demonstrates that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is still unwilling to accept the state`s authority in certain areas. The TTP declared that the step was taken in response for action by security forces in Khyber Agency, making it clear that it is quite willing and able to retaliate when the state tries to exert this authority.

The incident once again disproves the rhetoric of some political parties that it is foreign forces, not Pakistanis and Muslims, that are fighting the state. The conflict is clearly an indigenous one driven by citizens of this country who wish to establish fiefdoms where they can operate outside the bounds of the law. As such, this latest development points to a couple of realities that should no longer be ignored. One, the Frontier Constabulary is essentially a police force. Unlike the better-trained and better-equipped army and the Frontier Corps, it does not have the wherewithal to carry out the kind of security duties required in some of the border regions between the tribal areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This incident should be used as an opportunity to either step up their resources and training or to revis it their deployment in these areas. Second, the incident was a reminder that at least parts of North Waziristan remain a lawless hub for militant activities, including criminal activities carried out by militant groups. By now a clear pattern has also been established of kidnapping victims, whether state employees or private citizens, being held there while negotiations are conducted or until they are killed. This brazen killing of over a dozen security personnel should be a moment for the army and the civilian government to rethink their approach to North Waziristan and consider whether some action there, if only targeted strikes, is finally warranted.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Acres apart
Jan 8th 2012

A BIT of information provided by the Punjab law minister on Friday has provided a revealing peep into a very complicated affair. The minister was responding to a question when he said the army controls a total of 395,576 acres of land in Punjab. The army is using this land for cultivation and dairy farming and maintaining the income and expenditure records associated with these lands. The use of the word `control` was significant because a large number of tenants in the province have pinned their hopes for ownership on this point. Tenants on military farms in Punjab have been fighting for ownership rights and, short of that, a fair agreement that allows them just rewards for their labour. Their case is based on the argument that the land they have been tilling for a few generations actually belongs to the state, which had leased it out to the army among many lessees. They have been protesting the defence ministry`s decision of the year 2000 which requires them to pay rent for the land they cultivate, instead of the old arrangement under which they paid their dues to the authorities in the form of a share of the harvest.

There are actually two systems in place; one overseen by the Punjab government, the other by the army. But while the demands for uniformity have been getting louder, the stakeholders have yet to gather around one table to sort out the matter. Attempts made at addressing the tenancy issue as a whole have been at best half-hearted, such as the unclear Punjab Conferment of Proprietary Rights on Occupancy Tenants Muqarraaridars Bill 2011, which was withdrawn last month in the face of joint opposition by the treasury and the opposition. This aloofness leaves the ground even more fertile for discomfiture and dissent.

__________________
Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.