Syrian civil war?

Jan 15th 2012

THERE is an upsurge in violence in Syria, the Arab League observers` mission has all but failed, and there are fears the country is sliding into civil war. The AL mission entered the country on Dec 26 and came up with a plan President Bashar al-Assad accepted only to renege on it. The mission has come under sharp criticism from the Syrian opposition, which claims the observers have no training in monitoring trouble spots. The mission itself complained that it relied on government transport, and that turned its mission into a guided tour. The AL plan that the regime should withdraw troops and heavy weapons from streets in main cities, release prisoners, allow foreign observers and AL monitors to move freely and start talks with the opposition would have improved the situation perceptibly and led to talks. But the regime had second thoughts on the plan because its implementation would have meant large swathes of territory out of government control, giving a free hand to the so-called Free Syrian Army composed of deserters whose ranks are swelling by the day.

Angry elements within the armed forces claim that the majority of the troops hate firing on civilian protesters, that they could desert en masse, but that they are not sure of victory without more vigorous UN involvement, like imposing a no-fly zone as was done in Libya. Without the air force being crippled, the would-be deserters fear they would be crushed. Unfortunately, a Libya-like foreign involvement is not possible in Syria because of its key position in the Arab-Israel conflict, and that adds to Mr Assad`s intransigence.

He is not without support among the people, and says violence, especially the recent suicide bombings in Damascus, was the work of `foreign terrorists`. With the casualty toll having exceeded 5,000 2,000 of them soldiers his regime has become an international pariah. Unless he implements the AL plan, he will not be able to hold the constitutional referendum and the subsequent general election he has promised.

The result would be continued slaughter, with the possibility of a descent into a ferocious civil war.

Poor attendance
Jan 16th 2012

FRIDAY`S disappointingly small turnout of parliamentarians at a specially-arranged briefing on the state of the economy in Islamabad will only reinforce public perceptions about the politicians` lack of interest in the dayto-day travails of the common man. That only seven out of the 55 parliamentarians invited to the allparty briefing showed up is a sad indicator of political disinterest in policymaking that affects issues having a direct bearing on the lives of the electorate.

However, it is not fair to blame the politicians alone for their indifference to the country`s appalling economic performance. It is safe to assume that the turnout at the briefing would have been much better if the political atmosphere in the country had not been so volatile, especially in recent days when an institutional clash has underscored the tenuous nature of democracy here.

Not so many parliamentarians, particularly those from the opposition parties, would have chosen to stay away from the briefing. After all, it would have afforded them an excellent opportunity to take the government andits economic team to task for the abysmal economic performance in the past four years. At the same time, it must be asked whether it would be fair to blame the government alone for the current state of the economy. Most of us are aware that economic growth and political stability are inextricably linked, and that an uncertain political clime is a powerful deterrent for potential investors. The flight of capital from the country to safer shores is just a way of investors conveying this message to all stakeholders. Although a poor economic performance is a major political setback for any ruling dispensation, in Pakistan, the pressure on the government from several directions has been partially responsible for its diluted focus on the economy. Meanwhile, the opposition too has done little to defuse the uncertain political atmosphere, and has in fact contributed to it. The challenges facing the economy, particularly the expected spike in global oil prices, call for bringing down political temperatures for the sake of the common people who are the real victims of a weakening economy.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Flashpoint Iran
Jan 16th 2012

INTERNATIONAL oil politics, the murder of an Iranian nuclear scientist and reports of renewed uranium enrichment by the Islamic Republic are all factors contributing to keeping tensions between the West and Iran at an uncomfortable level. A car bomb in Tehran claimed the life of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan recently; the scientist worked at the Natanz nuclear facility and his assassination brings the number of Iranian scientists killed in similar fashion to four since 2010. It appears the assassination had Israel`s fingerprints all over it.

Eyebrows have also been raised by reports that Iran is enriching uranium at an underground bunker.

Meanwhile, the European Union has nearly finalised an agreement to embargo Iranian oil. The EU is the second largest market for Iranian crude. While `punishing` Iran for its supposed nuclear pursuits by banning oil exports will surely hurt the Islamic Republic, it will jolt the European and global economy just as much. TheEuropeans need to ask themselves if fragile economies such as Italy, Greece and Spain will be able to sustain themselves once world oil prices rise, which they most likely will once Iranian crude is blocked.

The confrontation and the possibility of Iranian crude being blocked has also worried Beijing and on Saturday the Chinese prime minister travelled to oil-rich Saudi Arabia which could provide a solution. Also, Washington continues to talk tough, with top US officials refusing to rule out military action against Iran. Given that 2012 is an election year in America, there is much anti-Iran rhetoric from both the Republican and Democratic camps. To bring down the temperature, the Iranians should fully cooperate with an IAEA team that is due in Tehran later this month.

Punishing Iran with more sanctions or worse, military aggression, will have highly undesirable consequences. Diplomacy and dialogue are the only solutions to this crisis.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Arfa Karim Randhawa
Jan 17th 2012


FOR all who knew her as well as a citizenry galvanised by her example, it is indeed tragic that a beacon of hope as bright as Arfa Karim Randhawa has been extinguished. The child prodigy became at the age of nine the world`s youngest Microsoft Certified Professional. In Pakistan, she was presented the Fatima Jinnah Gold Medal in the field of science and technology and the Salaam Pakistan Youth Award; she was the youngest person ever to be awarded the President`s Award for Pride of Performance. A source of inspiration for thousands, young Arfa`s ascendant star was cut short by cardiac arrest in December, leading to her death in Lahore on Saturday night. How far she touched the lives of strangers can be gauged from the fact that her funeral procession in her ancestral village of Ramdewali, near Faisalabad was attended by a large number of peo-ple who had never met her.

The Sindh government has announced that the IT Media City in Karachi will be renamed in the 16-yearold`s honour. Yet it would be disrespectful to her memory if we were to go no further than that. Arfa`s talent is a testament to the unexplored, unrecognised abilities that lie within millions of Pakistan`s young people potential that needs to be tapped. When young people are mentioned in the news, it is often in the context of crime or terrorism, the lack of job opportunities or frustrated hope. This needs to change so that exemplary stories such as Arfa`s can come to light, and young people are given the space and opportunity to develop their abilities. Annual talent hunts in various fields of endeavour would provide an obvious route. We must not forget that this is a country in dire need of role models with whom young people can identify.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Coal project
Jan 18th 2012

THE keen interest being shown by a consortium of US-based investors in mining the large reserves of coal in Thar for electricity generation and liquid fuel and urea production offers a unique opportunity for Pakistan. The consortium of lignite mining giants is already in Islamabad discussing the proposition with the Board of Investment. The consortium is reported to have offered to invest a whopping $10bn in the project to produce 6,000MW of coal-based power, and transfer modern, clean technology for gasification of coal and the production of liquid fuels and urea. In the first phase to be completed in three years, the consortium plans to produce 2,000MW of electricity and 20,000 barrels of liquid fuel. In the second phase, a urea plant will be set up and the production of synthetic gas started. By the time the project is completed, the total generation would rise to 6,000MW. Mining operations would eventually be producing over 100 million tons of coal per year to feed 80,000 barrels a day of direct coal-to-lig-uids plant.

The offer has come at a time when the government is trying to grapple with growing gas and power shortages even as it raises prices in a bid to ration demand. The energy crunch facing the countryhas brought the economy to a grinding halt with local and foreign investors shifting to other destinations. We don`t know as yet how serious the investors are but, if the project to be completed in three phases makes headway, the venture would go far in addressing the acute energy crisis that has been stalling economic growth and industrial expansion in the country for the last several years.

It will help bring down power rates making electricity affordable for all consumers, as well as send a positive signal to other foreign investors, and kick-start industrialisation and job creation in the country. Nevertheless, it is advisable that if talks on the project make progress the agreement should be finalised in a transparent manner so that no future government or state institution can strike it down.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

More ‘facts’ on the ground
Jan 18th 2012

A SPEECH by Ban Kimoon, an Israeli MP`s report on the increase in the number of Jewish settiers and a strongly worded British rebuke serve to highlight Israel`s defiance of international law and all peacemaking efforts.

In Beirut on Sunday, the UN secretary general asked Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian and Arab lands, and said the settlements were illegal. The same day, a rightwing Israeli MP quoted government sources to point out that there had been a 4.3 per cent increase in Jewish settlers compared to that in 2011.

On Monday, British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg called Israeli settlements `deliberate vandalism` designed to sabotage the establishment of a Palestinian state. Both Mr Ban and Mr Clegg pointed out that Jewish settlements went against the two-state solution the principle agreed upon by all sides.

Mr Ban said the two-state solution was `long over-due`, while Mr Clegg said the settlements threatened `the basic premise upon which negotiations have taken place`. It is significant that Mr Ban called for an end to the occupation not only of Palestinian land but also of `Arab territories` a reference to Syria`s Golan Heights, which Israel occupied in 1967 and annexed, like Jerusalem.

The number of Jews settied in the occupied territories is now over 700,000 half a million of them in the West Bank and occupied Arab east Jerusalem.

Israel has turned the talks into a farce, knowing America is at its beck and call. Its basic strategy is to `create facts` on the ground, so as to alter the West Bank`s demographic character. Mr Clegg flayed this strategy, saying the placing of `physical facts on the ground` made it impossible to have a twostate solution. The `exploratory talks` that began on Jan 3 will suffer the fate of previous peace processes.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Food safety

Jan 19th 2012

MOST countries have in place legal frameworks for ensuring food-safety standards, although implementation and effectiveness varies from place to place.

While Pakistan does not have a fully integrated set of legal mechanisms in this regard, there do exist laws that deal with the different dimensions of food safety.

These include, in particular, the Pakistan Pure Food Ordinance, 1960, the Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority Act, 1996, and the Hotels and Restaurants Act, 1976.

Consequently, there have been gains in ensuring that food intended for human consumers meets specific safety and quality standards. However, some observers have raised the need for targeted and integrated legislation to further streamline matters, especially in view of the passage of the 18th Amendment after which the provinces have become responsible for formulating their own legislation regarding the manufacture, transport and sale of food items.Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has taken a timely step, therefore, in proposing a new law that will establish an autonomous food authority. This will be tasked not just with maintaining food safety standards, but also the availability of safe food. The provincial health department has formulated a draft law on food safety and standards, which has been sent to the law department and is likely to get the go-ahead. Once established, and if applied effectively, it could play a crucial role in improving the province`s food safety record. A similar step has already been taken by Punjab, and the other provinces need to follow suit.

Food safety and availability are crucial issues in a country where rising costs are, in a sense, creating fertile breeding ground for adulterators and profiteers. Further, an environment conducive to the implementation of the laws needs to be created by making the citizenry aware of its right to safe food and demanding this strongly.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Grossman visit
Jan 19th 2012

THE US State Department revealed on Tuesday that Pakistan has asked special envoy Marc Grossman not to stop in Pakistan during his current tour of the Middle East. Given ongoing Pakistani resentment over November`s Nato strike, this would not have been as surprising if the focus of the visit had been US-Pakistan relations.

But the purpose of Mr Grossman`s tour is to discuss with a number of countries in the region the reconciliation effort with the Afghan Taliban, which has acquired new momentum after the public opening of the Taliban office in Qatar. Pakistan has always demonstrated a justifiable interest in being involved in these talks given its concerns about the stability of its next-door neighbour.

And Taliban reconciliation has proven to be a touchand-go business, as demonstrated by slowdowns following the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani last year and the discovery of a fake interlocutor in 2010.

Why, then, the unwillingness to take advantage of this opportunity for involvement now that talks are starting up again? It is true that parliament has not yet deliberated on recommendations made by the Parliamentary Committee on National Security about the shape that relations with the US should take inthe aftermath of the Nato strike. That was apparently the reason given for declining to host Mr Grossman.

But given the weak implementation of previous political consensuses that have been reached on national security issues, this excuse rings hollow. Surely a discussion on Taliban reconcillation has ramifications for Pakistan beyond the US-Pakistan relationship and could have been conducted while waiting for parliament`s conclusions? This move is reminiscent of the decision to boycott December`s Bonn conference on the future of Afghanistan. The administration and army have expressed their strong resentment over the November incident, Nato supplies have been suspended and the Shamsi airbase vacated.

Plenty of public and private signals have been sent and enough resentment demonstrated, including by the Defence Committee of the Cabinet less than a week ago. And in an American election year, Pakistan should give up any hope of an apology from the Obama administration. Parliament must speed up its deliberations and make a realistic assessment of Pakistan`s needs and interests as it designs a new relationship.

Meanwhile, the administration must carefully weigh the opportunities it is missing while it waits.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Economic outlook
21st Jan 2012

THE World Bank’s annual report on global economic prospects contained a mixed picture for Pakistan. GDP growth is expected to increase to 3.9 per cent this year compared to 2.4 per cent in 2010-2011. But the country “continues to markedly lag outcomes elsewhere in the region”, reflecting poor infrastructure, “worsening security conditions … greater political uncertainty and a breakdown in policy implementation”. Pakistan’s growth rate will be the lowest in South Asia this year. Fiscal discipline and revenue generation are still not where they need to be, making it difficult to bring down inflation further and putting essential social expenditure at risk.

That is not what one would have thought listening to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s speech in the National Assembly on Thursday, where he claimed that improvements in certain indicators this fiscal year were the result of the government’s economic policies and reform efforts. The fiscal deficit and the inflation rate have indeed been brought down. But talk to independent experts, and a worrying picture emerges. While they acknowledge these improvements, they also caution that these have not resulted from structural changes and are not expected to last till the end of the year. Tax collection, the prime minister argued, has gone up by 27 per cent. But much of this is due to the recovery of amounts pending from previous years rather than an improved collection mechanism. The fiscal deficit is expected to go up as elections approach and removing subsidies and cutting spending becomes too risky politically. Meanwhile, the country remains dependent on a number of foreign inflows that are either one-offs or uncertain, such as stalled Coalition Support Funds, privatisation receipts and income from the sale of 3G licences. A slowing global economy could well affect currently healthy export prices and remittances. Government borrowing from the private sector continues to crowd out private investment and growth was not mentioned in Mr Gilani’s speech, an alarming sign in a country that has to accommodate a mushrooming pool of workers.

It is true that growth, inflation and deficit numbers have all shown improvements this fiscal year. But without a commitment to structural reform — insulated as far as possible from politics — they cannot be sustained. Especially in the context of a precarious global economy, Pakistan cannot become complacent about getting its house in order. Tough choices such as restructuring public-sector enterprises, removing subsidies and widening the tax-collection net need to be made. Despite some positive numbers, it is still not clear if the current government — or its possible successors — have the backbone to do so.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.

Railways’ asset
Jan 20th 2012

PAKISTAN Railways is perhaps the only state-owned entity in the country that owns prime commercial and agricultural land worth billions of rupees and yet has no money to pay salaries and pensions or to run its operations. A report carried by this newspaper on Thursday reveals that PR has what in official jargon is known as ‘surplus’ land measuring some 0.14m kanals (17,625 acres) worth over Rs66bn at current market prices. This is in addition to the property being illegally occupied by various federal and provincial departments and agencies, the military, and private persons in different parts of the country, and that is generating massive revenues for land-grabbers at PR’s expense. The fact that PR management does not have any plan to leverage this huge asset for generating funds to overcome its growing financial problems speaks volumes for its incompetence and disinterest. Little wonder then that Railways has run up an overdraft of more than Rs42bn over the past several years and is still looking towards the government for a financial package to bail it out of the current crisis that has brought its operations to a grinding halt. The government, which is already facing a severe financial crunch, has so far resisted the demand and instead has chosen to help PR arrange a loan of Rs6.1bn through a consortium of commercial banks for the repair of its locomotives.

It is estimated that Railways management can generate sufficient funds to meet its liabilities, pay salaries and pensions on time, and undertake development for expanding its operations if it decides to use this land for commercial projects and ventures in partnership with private investors. The investors should have no hesitation in joining Railways in undertaking commercial ventures provided they are assured of the protection of their investments and a reasonable rate of return. The launch next month of a ‘business train’ running between Lahore and Karachi is just one small example of PR’s partnership with the private sector that is expected to bring in Rs1.5bn a year.

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Real richness is that you are so expensive that no one can buy your character.