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HASEEB ANSARI Thursday, June 13, 2013 10:49 AM

[B]13.06.2013 [/B][B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Predictable results: Economic survey outlook
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
THAT the country has again missed most key budgetary targets shouldn’t really come as a surprise. It was pretty obvious from day one that the government had underestimated its expenditure and overestimated its revenues in the budget for the outgoing year. The budget didn’t take into account the growing energy shortages and deteriorating security conditions when setting a growth target of 4.4 per cent and an investment target of just below 15pc. All the warnings against setting unrealistic and exaggerated targets were dismissed by the previous government, perhaps because it wanted to create a feel-good effect about the economy in the election year. The trick hasn’t worked.

The macroeconomic numbers released in the Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-13, launched by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Tuesday, portray a very bleak picture of the economy and point to the difficult task ahead for the new government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to put it back on a growth trajectory. Economic growth has plunged to 3.6pc, fiscal deficit has blown to Rs2 trillion or 8.3pc, public and private investment has dipped to 12.6pc, the tax target will be missed by over Rs350 billion and the current account gap has soared to just under $3bn. Public debt is feared to jump to Rs14tr by the close of the outgoing year, while foreign investment is at low leval of $800 million and foreign official capital flows have almost dried up. And so on, and so forth.

True, the PML-N government is inheriting a weak economy and it will have to seek a bailout from the IMF. Yet it is still not at the brink. However dismal the situation may be, the macroeconomic numbers for the current year do show some positive signs for achieving economic recovery provided credible policies are formulated and implemented. That the economy grew moderately in spite of rising energy shortages that shaved off 2pc of GDP, and poor security conditions, is an achievement in itself. Though the agriculture and services sectors missed their growth targets owing to the energy crunch, large scale manufacturing went up to 4.2pc. This shows the strength of the industry and the part it can play in pushing growth and creating new jobs if given a favourable business environment an industrialist PM. National savings rose to 13.5pc of GDP and most importantly, inflation has been brought down to a under 7pc. The government can build on these positive trends by reducing energy shortages, cutting fiscal deficit, reviving private investment and promoting regional trade.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Monsoons approach: Time to prepare
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
WITH pre-monsoon showers having occurred in several places in primarily the northern half of the country in recent days, some respite from the fierce heat is in the offing. The weather conditions have proved difficult to endure for many citizens this year, particularly given the frequent spells of load-shedding and power breakdowns in several parts of the country. In Lahore, for instance, the rain on Tuesday brought the temperature down from a scorching high of 44 degrees Celsius to a more manageable 24 degrees.

While citizens may have reason to welcome the onset of the monsoons — which the Pakistan Meteorology Department expects will set in earlier than usual this year — state and provincial administrations need to take it as a call to action. Still fresh in people’s memories are the catastrophic monsoon floods of 2010 and, though to a lesser degree, of 2011. Even last year, while there were no floods as such, rain-related damage included houses collapsed and lives lost, thousands displaced from Azad Kashmir and hundreds of acres of land submerged in the Sialkot region. While floods have not so far been predicted for this year, the relevant administrations nevertheless need to prepare. This can include reviewing the countrywide irrigation canal system to prevent possible breaches and an awareness campaign targeting people who live in structures whose integrity can be compromised by heavy rain — such as in shantytowns or mud houses in villages. Water courses can be cleared to carry extra load; already, flooding in the Swat River has damaged roads in the Kalam area and caused the closure of the bridge between the Matta and Khwazakhela tehsils. Right now, there is still time to warn or clear settlements along river and canal banks. Similarly, the national and provincial management authorities have the time, right now, to draw up plans and procedures. We need not wait, as tends to be the custom in Pakistan, for disaster to strike and then cast about for solutions; some preparedness could prove invaluable.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Revealing drubbing: Champions Trophy debacle
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
THE abrupt end to Pakistan’s campaign at the ICC Champions Trophy has taken the team’s worst critics by surprise, despite its chequered record in international matches during recent months. The spectacular wilting of Misbah-ul-Haq’s army in the high-profile event, first against the West Indies and subsequently against the Proteas, has laid bare yet again the many chinks in the team’s armour. Besides exposing their inability to sustain the pressure of top level cricket, the debacle also smacks of wrangling within the side which has been Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel for several decades now. And yet, even then, the Champions Trophy defeat is hard to explain.

The challenging tour of South Africa had supposedly left the players a battle-hardened lot, as described by their skipper Misbah in a pre-tournament press conference. A series of competitive warm-up games ahead of the ICC Trophy was adequate preparation for the national team, it was thought. And with an unprecedented army of coaches at their disposal to hone their skills, it appeared that for once Pakistan had enjoyed a professional workout for a truly competitive event. But it was not to be. The debacle has, indeed, reflected poorly on the Pakistan Cricket Board regime of Chaudhry Zaka Ashraf and some of the decisions it took during its first year in office. These include disturbing the |winning combination of skipper Misbah and coach Mohsin Khan, needlessly elevating Mohammad Hafeez as the Twenty20 captain and persisting with over-the-hill players such as Shoaib Malik, Imran Farhat and Kamran Akmal. The writing on the wall is clear: for Pakistan to make an impact in the 2015 World Cup, nothing short of an overhaul will suffice — which means that favourites and hand-picked individuals must be dispensed with at all levels to make a fresh start.

HASEEB ANSARI Friday, June 14, 2013 03:26 PM

[B]14.06.2013[/B] [B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Predictable results: Economic survey outlook
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
THAT the country has again missed most key budgetary targets shouldn’t really come as a surprise. It was pretty obvious from day one that the government had underestimated its expenditure and overestimated its revenues in the budget for the outgoing year. The budget didn’t take into account the growing energy shortages and deteriorating security conditions when setting a growth target of 4.4 per cent and an investment target of just below 15pc. All the warnings against setting unrealistic and exaggerated targets were dismissed by the previous government, perhaps because it wanted to create a feel-good effect about the economy in the election year. The trick hasn’t worked.

The macroeconomic numbers released in the Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-13, launched by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Tuesday, portray a very bleak picture of the economy and point to the difficult task ahead for the new government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to put it back on a growth trajectory. Economic growth has plunged to 3.6pc, fiscal deficit has blown to Rs2 trillion or 8.3pc, public and private investment has dipped to 12.6pc, the tax target will be missed by over Rs350 billion and the current account gap has soared to just under $3bn. Public debt is feared to jump to Rs14tr by the close of the outgoing year, while foreign investment is at low leval of $800 million and foreign official capital flows have almost dried up. And so on, and so forth.

True, the PML-N government is inheriting a weak economy and it will have to seek a bailout from the IMF. Yet it is still not at the brink. However dismal the situation may be, the macroeconomic numbers for the current year do show some positive signs for achieving economic recovery provided credible policies are formulated and implemented. That the economy grew moderately in spite of rising energy shortages that shaved off 2pc of GDP, and poor security conditions, is an achievement in itself. Though the agriculture and services sectors missed their growth targets owing to the energy crunch, large scale manufacturing went up to 4.2pc. This shows the strength of the industry and the part it can play in pushing growth and creating new jobs if given a favourable business environment an industrialist PM. National savings rose to 13.5pc of GDP and most importantly, inflation has been brought down to a under 7pc. The government can build on these positive trends by reducing energy shortages, cutting fiscal deficit, reviving private investment and promoting regional trade.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Monsoons approach: Time to prepare
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
WITH pre-monsoon showers having occurred in several places in primarily the northern half of the country in recent days, some respite from the fierce heat is in the offing. The weather conditions have proved difficult to endure for many citizens this year, particularly given the frequent spells of load-shedding and power breakdowns in several parts of the country. In Lahore, for instance, the rain on Tuesday brought the temperature down from a scorching high of 44 degrees Celsius to a more manageable 24 degrees.

While citizens may have reason to welcome the onset of the monsoons — which the Pakistan Meteorology Department expects will set in earlier than usual this year — state and provincial administrations need to take it as a call to action. Still fresh in people’s memories are the catastrophic monsoon floods of 2010 and, though to a lesser degree, of 2011. Even last year, while there were no floods as such, rain-related damage included houses collapsed and lives lost, thousands displaced from Azad Kashmir and hundreds of acres of land submerged in the Sialkot region. While floods have not so far been predicted for this year, the relevant administrations nevertheless need to prepare. This can include reviewing the countrywide irrigation canal system to prevent possible breaches and an awareness campaign targeting people who live in structures whose integrity can be compromised by heavy rain — such as in shantytowns or mud houses in villages. Water courses can be cleared to carry extra load; already, flooding in the Swat River has damaged roads in the Kalam area and caused the closure of the bridge between the Matta and Khwazakhela tehsils. Right now, there is still time to warn or clear settlements along river and canal banks. Similarly, the national and provincial management authorities have the time, right now, to draw up plans and procedures. We need not wait, as tends to be the custom in Pakistan, for disaster to strike and then cast about for solutions; some preparedness could prove invaluable.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Revealing drubbing: Champions Trophy debacle
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
THE abrupt end to Pakistan’s campaign at the ICC Champions Trophy has taken the team’s worst critics by surprise, despite its chequered record in international matches during recent months. The spectacular wilting of Misbah-ul-Haq’s army in the high-profile event, first against the West Indies and subsequently against the Proteas, has laid bare yet again the many chinks in the team’s armour. Besides exposing their inability to sustain the pressure of top level cricket, the debacle also smacks of wrangling within the side which has been Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel for several decades now. And yet, even then, the Champions Trophy defeat is hard to explain.

The challenging tour of South Africa had supposedly left the players a battle-hardened lot, as described by their skipper Misbah in a pre-tournament press conference. A series of competitive warm-up games ahead of the ICC Trophy was adequate preparation for the national team, it was thought. And with an unprecedented army of coaches at their disposal to hone their skills, it appeared that for once Pakistan had enjoyed a professional workout for a truly competitive event. But it was not to be. The debacle has, indeed, reflected poorly on the Pakistan Cricket Board regime of Chaudhry Zaka Ashraf and some of the decisions it took during its first year in office. These include disturbing the |winning combination of skipper Misbah and coach Mohsin Khan, needlessly elevating Mohammad Hafeez as the Twenty20 captain and persisting with over-the-hill players such as Shoaib Malik, Imran Farhat and Kamran Akmal. The writing on the wall is clear: for Pakistan to make an impact in the 2015 World Cup, nothing short of an overhaul will suffice — which means that favourites and hand-picked individuals must be dispensed with at all levels to make a fresh start.

alihashmatkhoso Saturday, June 15, 2013 11:10 AM

The forgotten: Afghan refugees in Pakistan
 
SAD though it is, old wars and their effects — even if ongoing — do not make headlines. Perhaps that is why the world’s attention tends to wander away to newer conflicts and their attendant human plight. In recent years, we have seen the international community stretch its hand out to help people whose lives were rent apart in Iraq, in the countries that were part of the Arab Spring, and now in Syria — for a time. With each new flare-up, the thrust of international humanitarian operations shifted, leaving the earlier efforts shorn to a considerable degree of money and manpower. It is only through this cynical lens that the plight of Afghan refugees who continue to remain in Pakistan decades after being dislocated can be understood. Has the world, even Afghanistan, forgotten?

There are 1.6 million Afghan refugees registered in Pakistan, as well as over 1.6 million unregistered and illegal aliens. For Pakistan and particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the overwhelming majority resides, this is too front-and-centre an issue to be conveniently forgotten. Such, indeed, is the scale of the matter that Pakistani authorities have, on occasion, issued deadlines for Afghans to repatriate themselves on pain of having their refugee status revoked. Such deadlines were extended, and now the latest deadline is due to pass on June 30. This time, too, in view of humanitarian considerations, the government will have little choice but to extend the deadline again. The central issue, of course, is the abysmal situation that continues to prevail in Afghanistan, decades after the invasion by the Soviet Union. Despite the efforts of the UN refugee agency and Pakistan, the reality is that with 36pc Afghans living below the poverty line, little meaningful development and few employment opportunities, Afghanistan is an unappealing destination — even in comparison to Pakistan. The Karzai administration, and the world, needs to ensure improvement, fast. Pakistan must not reject refugees, but neither must their country of citizenship think that the problem has been resolved.

kal3m Saturday, June 15, 2013 05:53 PM

Editorials from DAWN (15-06-2013)
 
[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Steady policy needed: Recourse to IMF[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

FINANCE Minister Ishaq Dar has finally uttered the three-letter word of Pakistani politics IMF. The repeated and inevitable recourse to the Fund clearly points to deep structural problems in the economy which will take more than one budget, and perhaps more than one government, to rectify.

What is not so clear, or easily rectified, however, is the manner in which our political parties have readily surrendered to their baser instincts to draw political mileage from the attempts mounted by the party in power to advance the necessary reforms.

When in opposition, PMLN leaders decried the approach to the IMF in 2008, when it was even more necessary than it is now. In their campaign they invoked the language of the `begging bowl` only to readily reach out to Saudi Arabia for another oil facility immediately after the elections.

In their last stint in power the same party with the same faces in the cabinet struggled with implementation of the general sales tax at the retail stage and with getting another tranche released by the IMF, and raised the GST by one percentage point through a presidential ordinance. But in opposition, the same people opposed the Reformed General Sales Tax Bill arguing that it would `hitthe common man`, vilified the IMF, opposed the use of the presidential ordinance as a route to reforming the outmoded GST and demanded that any tax reforms be presented before parliament where they proceeded to oppose the measure. Once again in power, they have raised the GST rate by one whole percentage point overnight and turned to the ]MF.

Such manner of politics must end. Perhaps the PML-N government ought to acknowledge that they were wrong in opposing a progressive economic agenda while they sat in opposition. Failing that, they should at least try to desist from blaming all the country`s economic ills on the previous government, in returnfor the assurance that the combined opposition will not oppose reformist economic measures simply for the sake of creating difficulties for the treasury benches. A national consensus is required urgently on the future direction of economic policy, and the PML-N must take the lead in crafting such a consensus. All political parties must come together to agree on an economic agenda for the future, and agree to support its implementation.

No parliamentary mandate will ever be enough to put the ship of state on an even keel if we keep playing politics with our economic survival.


[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]A safety net: Fund for journalists[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

OFF and on, we are reminded of the fact that Pakistan remains a hard place for journalists to carry out their professional responsibilities. There have been a number of high-profile killings of media persons in this country. Conditions are especially difficult in Fata and parts of Balochistan, where journalists have paid with their lives, while even in cities like Karachi media persons have been targeted and face a variety of threats. Working conditions are particularly tough for freelancers and stringers operating in remote and conflict-ridden areas.

Considering the circumstances, the decision by former caretaker prime minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso to set up a fund for journalists in conflict zones must be welcomed. The fund seeks to provide financial assistance to families of journalists killed or maimed in the line of duty while it also provides for cash support for media persons `suffering from a serious ailment`.While the state has taken the initiative, the fact is that ensuring journalists receive proper training, equipment and protection in order to safely carry out their professional duties is primarily the responsibility of media houses. This also holds true for providing compensation in case anything unforeseen occurs.

Media concerns must step in and match the government`s effort, especially when it comes to providing compensation to families of journalists who get killed or seriously injured while carrying out their duties.

Unless media houses support this initiative particularly on the financial front it will not become sustainable. Also, while the fund was set up by the caretaker administration, we expect the elected government to honour the initiative and support it.

Considering the occupational hazards, journalists will at least be assured that some sort of support will be available to them or their families should anything unfortunate happen.

kal3m Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:39 AM

Editorials from DAWN (16-06-2013)
 
[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]A sad day: Attack on Ziarat residency[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

A DAY that began with the desecration of a secular shrine, the Ziarat rest house where Mohammad Ali Jinnah spent his last days, continued with another episode of violence in Quetta. The perpetrators of these two crimes could well be worlds apart in terms of ideology, but so is the vision for Pakistan of one of the great, secular, nonviolent leaders of the 20th century and the reality of Pakistan today where women, students, doctors andnurses are targetedin the name of a grotesque vision of the future. That the Baloch Liberation Army knew exactly what it was doing in destroying the Ziarat rest house is obvious: it was repudiating in a spectacular manner the idea of Pakistan and broadcasting its propaganda for a separate state. That the state has again failed both at the level of intelligencegathering and preventing a terrorist attack from succeeding is also obvious.

Unhappily, the more obvious these truths, the less likely it seems that anything will be done to address them.

Shocking as the destruction in Ziarat is, the message it sends is equally worrying. Was the bombing meant as a cynical welcome for the new Balochistan government, led by the moderate Baloch chief minister Abdul Malik? The BLA has over the yearsreserved an almost equal fury for the army-led security establishment as it has for Baloch politicians who advocate addressing Baloch discontent within the federation of Pakistan.

If Mr Malik`s government is already in the crosshairs of the separatists, then what chance of it helping establish peace in the province? Or was this yet another attempt to lash out against the army, part of an on-going dirty war that ebbs and flows for reasons unknown far away from the media spotlight and outside scrutiny? After all, the army controls and directs the security policy in the province and has for years tried to crush the separatists with brutality. And where the state`s violence often occurs in the shadows, dead bodies being the only evidence later, the insurgents rely on headlinegrabbing attacks to make their case. Suffice it to say, attacking a site so associated with Mr Jinnah`s name and legacy is unlikely to signal a reduction in the tit-for-tat violence in Balochistan.

The attack in Quetta, on the other hand, could well be the work of a group representing a different ideology. But clearly, whether the violence being perpetrated is the work of separatists or religious extremists, the establishment`s approach is not working. Why not? In that answer lies an even more depressing truth.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Myriad challenges: Circular debt[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

The vigour with which the PML-N government is pursuing the issues of the power sector is encouraging. It appears they are serious about tackling the crisis. The announcement of their `energy revival plan` is grounds for optimism that finally the thorny issues that have engulfed the country`s power sector are receiving the kind of comprehensive and sustained attention they demand.

Coming at a time when disappointment with the budget is rippling through the business community, the energy revival plan is a ray of hope that on one front, at least, the new government is showing the seriousness of purpose that everybody was looking for.

However, almost the entire plan unveiled thus far consists of shortterm measures. Retiring the circular debt and raising the power tariff are both necessary steps and the government deserves credit for preparing to take them in spite of the difficulties they present.

But if these steps are not accompanied quickly andeffectively by measures to raise plant efficiencies and billing recoveries on a rolling basis, they run the danger of proving to be short-term measures, bringing us back to the same predicament of a power sector choked with debt. After the difficult steps outlined in the plan there is the issue of bringing the power bureaucracy to heel by inducting private management and of creating an autonomous pricing mechanism for electricity. Transferring the state-owned power entities into private hands turns out, in the longer view, to be the easy part.

In fact, taking the mechanism for the pricing electricity out of government hands is the real job.

Taking on the power bureaucracy appears a daunting task, but apparently the IPPs have to be tackled at the same time, by weaning them off their habit of expecting exorbitant penal interest charges. Each step yields another challenge. The way out of this crisis is long and hard, and this is one journey that may or may not begin with a single step.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]The winning hand: Bridge glory[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

THE Pakistan women`s team`s magnificent victory in the prestigious 17th Bridge Federation of Asia and Middle East bridge event in India has come as a pleasant surprise for all card game enthusiasts in the country besides, of course, doing Pakistan proud. The victory, so fabulously carved out by Rubina Agha and her colleagues in the face of tough odds at Ahmedabad, came out of the blue since the national team`s visit for the BFAME Championship had largely gone unnoticed due to little or no media coverage of the event. While our bridge women experienced mixed fortunes against rivals like Sri Lanka, Palestine and India on their way to the final, it is to their credit that they kept their nerve in the decider to beat a strong Indian outfit on their own turf. By virtue of this fine win, Pakistan has qualified for the 19th Venice Cup inIndonesia, a rare honour indeed.

That said, the government`s step-motherly treatment towards sports and indoor games such as bridge, chess and snooker continues to be a source of annoyance for players and fans alike. On their return home to a rousing welcome, the women`s bridge team did not mince words about the complete absence of government support, disclosing that the entire expenses of the trip were borne by the team itself. It is no secret that security concerns have kept foreign teams away from Pakistan for almost half a decade now and national players have found it extremely difficult to keep themselves motivated and in the groove for international competitions. It is a miracle that they still manage to bring glory to the country. It is about time that the government woke up from its deep slumber to recognise their efforts.

alihashmatkhoso Monday, June 17, 2013 09:47 AM

Burden on common man: Additional taxes
 
[B]THE budgetary proposal binding all salaried and non-salaried taxpayers and certain categories of businessmen and professionals to file tax returns and wealth statements is a step in the right direction. Even those earning below the tax exemption threshold are now required to file returns and wealth statements irrespective of their income or value of assets. It is a significant move to document the economy and, going forward, should help broaden the narrow tax base. But its implementation will be a challenge, and the intended results will take many years to yield. For now, the government has decided to live with the existing taxpayers, who mostly comprise fixed-income groups and are made to pay their taxes. In fact, the government has now chosen to milk more revenue from them.

Next year, the government will take away billions of rupees in additional taxes from the poor and fixed-income groups and that money will go to wealthy bankers, corporations, and other businesses. If any money is spared by the rich, it will in all likelihood be used to finance the budget deficit, luxuries of the rulers and large projects, many of which are not needed by the hungry and jobless people of this country — at least not at the moment. It is disappointing that no thought appears to have been spared for the financial difficulties of the common man. Instead of a serious attempt to widen the tax net for more equitable sharing, taxes to be paid by existing taxpayers have been raised directly and indirectly. This is an unacceptable solution to increasing tax generation and will only compound the miseries of the common people. The government has already indicated raising power prices to pass on the impact of the electricity theft and system losses it appears unable to control to the consumers. Such measures on top of increased taxes will exacerbate the financial burden of the common man.[/B]

kal3m Monday, June 17, 2013 12:48 PM

Editorials from DAWN (17-06-2013)
 
[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Formidable threat: Lashkar-i-Jhangvi in Balochistan[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

AS Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, that claimed responsibility for the horrific violence in Quetta on Saturay, strikes again and again in Balochistan, there may be a temptation to regard it as an out-of-control problem in an out-of-control backwater. But LJ is part of a continuum of militancy and extremism that has a long history and an ever more threatening future a threat to all of Pakistan, not just particular regions.

The history of LJ itself underlines the complexity of the threat from militancy today: what began as an anti-Shia agenda and targeted killings has morphed into an expansive list of targets, some seemingly picked at random and without much concern about whether women or children are direct victims.

There is the LJ in Balochistan, which is alleged to have developed links with the Baloch separatists.

Thereis the LJin the tdbal areas, which has longstanding ties to Al Qaeda and now the TTP. There is the LJ in Punjab, which continues to grow and develop its network inside the umbrella Punjabi Taliban. Taken together, they pose a formidable threat across the country, not just Balochistan. And LJis only one aspect of a multidimensional and multifaceted militancy threat.

The pervasiveness of the threat does not, however, mean that a modular, regional approach to countering it cannot be implemented. In Balochistan, LJ`s rise is intrinsically linked to a security policy that is controlled and directed by the army-ledsecurity establishment.

The space for non-state actors` singular obsession with crushing the Baloch insurgency through violence meant that other non-state actors were able to take advantage of the state`s focus elsewhere.

Even worse, there are allegations that the obsession with crushing the Baloch insurgency also led to encouraging pro-state Baloch militants who have their own agendas, including developing ties with LJ.

The Baloch separatists remain a problem the shocking destruction in Ziarat on Saturday is evidence enough but state policy is an even bigger one. Where a political problem the Baloch insurgency is being dealt with by brute force, the problem that does require an iron fist LJ is being left largely unaddressed. Both policies, extreme action against Baloch separatists and extreme inaction against LJ, must change andforthatareckoning with army-led security policy is needed first.

Beyond Balochistan and LJ, the bigger picture is almost as bleak. The transition to democracy may appear on track but the politicians have so far made no effort to reach for the holy grail: national security and foreign policy. The euphemistically termed non-state actors cannot and must not be elements of this country`s national security and foreign policy because they are the single greatest threat to Pakistan`s security and relations with the world. Will the army listen?

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Official apathy: Peacocks die in Thar[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

ONE of the Thar desert`s most beautiful denizens, the peacock, is in the throes of a deadly epidemic, while officials who should be striving to do all they can to prevent the disease from claiming more victims have, it seems, buried their heads in the sand. Although no proper surveys have been carried out, it is estimated that the region is home to an estimated 30,000 peafowl. In recent weeks, there have been several news reports about these birds being felled by Newcastle disease, a viral contagion known locally as Ranikhet.

So far about 50 deaths have been reported, 19 on Wednesday alone in the Diplo area of Thar. This is not a new phenomenon.

The disease has killed over 300 peafowl in the last two years. And that`s only the number of recorded deaths; the actual figures could be much higher give that the peafowl populationis scattered overavast area.Regrettably, despite these dire reports, the local wildlife department has gone into denial mode that borders on the farcical and is attributing the fatalities to high summer temperatures even though the birds have been perishing on this scale only since 2011. Last year, moreover, tests had confirmed Newcastle disease as the cause of death.

Tackling this problem urgently for reasons of conservation aside, it is also important to consider that the affliction is an avian disease that can also infect poultry and then jump species to infect humans, although it is not fatal in the latter case.

While there is no treatment for the disease, vaccination can reduce the frquency of outbreaks and officials must make arrangements to vaccinate as many of the birds as possible in the most affected areas. Acknowledging the problem would be the first step in this direction.

HASEEB ANSARI Tuesday, June 18, 2013 11:12 AM

[B]18.06.2013 [/B][B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]A different approach: Balochistan security[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

JUST days into his stint as interior minister, Nisar Ali Khan has already restored a sense of seriousness and purpose to at least the talking points of the interior ministry. Why, the interior minister asked in parliament yesterday, was a city like Quetta with an overwhelming security and intel presence attacked so frequently and brazenly? In that direct and very meaningful question, Chaudhry Nisar has opened the black box that is security policy in Balochistan and looked inside — something few other civilian politicians have dared to do. If Balochistan is to be rescued from the deadly embrace of violence and militancy, the starting point must necessarily be a new approach to the security challenges there — and a new approach can only be introduced if the old approach is examined bluntly and publicly.

For too long, the truth about state policy in Balochistan, who runs it and why it is not working has only been whispered about and that too far from the public discourse.

Still, a policy reboot is about much more than just speaking plainly or asking awkward questions. And security policy is a much wider canvas than Lashkar-i-Jhangvi in Quetta. Here, on this wider canvas, the PML-N is already struggling with coherence and clarity. As Chaudhry Nisar has repeated in the wake of the Quetta attacks, his party is willing to negotiate with militants, specifically the ones who are willing to negotiate with the state. But who exactly are these groups and individuals? The TTP has offered and renounced talks without there being any clarity if that umbrella organisation has any intention of ever negotiating in good faith and abiding by whatever agreement is struck. It is not that negotiations with militant groups can absolutely never in any circumstances be held. But talk of negotiations in the absence of any societal clarity about the threat militancy poses to Pakistan and why it must be defeated tends to make the possibility of that clarity ever emerging that much more remote.

In the weeks and months ahead, as the government settles into its new responsibilities, there will be no more severe test of its resolve and clarity than in both setting out a new security policy for the state and explaining its logic to the people. To continue to exist in zones of grey, as the PML-N has done in the past and is doing at the moment, on matters of terrorism, militancy and extremism is to accept a Pakistan that will inexorably slide towards chaos and instability.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]A new beginning: Iran elects Rowhani
[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]
WITH the election of Hojatoleslam Hassan Rowhani to the presidency, Iranians have made clear their desire for change at the top after eight years of conservative rule under the stewardship of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Though the Guardian Council had limited the field of contenders to six men adhering to varying degrees of conservatism, Mr Rowhani seemed closest to the reformist camp. Variously labelled as “reform-minded” and “moderate”, the president-elect had nevertheless won the backing of the reformists and so can perhaps be best described as a centrist with conservative leanings. Yet his election — Mr Rowhani beat his closest rival by a wide margin — is a clear message from Iranian voters in favour of increased reform and openness in the Islamic Republic. But Hassan Rowhani will have to move carefully, balancing the hopes of his reformist and centrist supporters with the realities of having to work with the powerful players that make up the Iranian establishment.

Mr Rowhani is a man familiar with the Iranian political system. He has held key government posts in the past, including deputy speaker of parliament, while on the international front he has considerable diplomatic experience, having served as Iran’s main nuclear negotiator. The cleric-politician can also work to reduce Iran’s internal polarisation, which increased after Mr Ahmadinejad’s disputed 2009 election: he enjoys good relations with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while his candidacy was backed by reformist former president Mohammad Khatami. To what extent the conservative clergy and the powerful military establishment let him pursue independent policies remains to be seen. What is certain at this point is that Mr Rowhani will have his plate full dealing with Iran’s numerous internal and external issues when he moves into the presidency in August. These include reviving a moribund national economy partly battered by Western nuclear sanctions, resolving the nuclear issue itself satisfactorily as well as carefully managing Iran’s foreign policy in a combustible neighbourhood at a time when sectarian tensions are on the boil and geopolitical uncertainty is rife.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]High cost of living: Prices rise
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POOR to low-income households already struggling with higher prices should brace themselves for a fresh wave of inflation resulting from the additional taxation measures proposed in the recent budget. The prices of most necessities, particularly food, have already been raised because of the government’s insistence on recovering the additional taxes even before the start of the new budget year in order to hold down its deficit. The estimates of price inflation for June have already been nudged up by just under 1pc in view of the spike in food costs. The cumulative impact of the indirect taxation on prices of essentials comes to 3.5pc — a 1pc hike in sales tax, 2pc additional sales tax on supplies to unregistered entities, and 0.5pc tax on wholesalers, commission agents, etc. The impact on the kitchen budgets of consumers is feared to be much more. Prices will soar more sharply next month when the government passes on at least one-third of the financial impact of electricity theft and losses to consumers. With the advent of Ramazan — traditionally associated with higher seasonal food prices — many households may find it impossible to make both ends meet.

Price inflation is recognised as taxation without legislation. It diminishes the buying power of fixed-income groups besides heavily taxing the poor. The next spate of price inflation will not result from food shortages in the country. Nor will it be pushed up by a spike in global prices of oil and food commodities as in 2008. Prices are going to rise because of the government’s failure to tax the wealthy as promised by the ruling PML-N in its election manifesto. While it is important to raise tax revenues to finance development, taxing poor and low-income groups directly or indirectly for that is bad policy.

kal3m Wednesday, June 19, 2013 02:42 PM

Editorials from DAWN (19-06-2013)
 
[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Populist schemes: Punjab budget[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

PUNJAB`S Rs932bn budget for the next fiscal must increase the province`s regional economy as the Shahbaz Sharif government has substantially raised investment spending and attempted to raise provincial tax revenues through additional measures. At the same time, however, it focuses on populist schemes to woo the youth perhaps with a view to luring them away from Imran Khan`s PTI and dishes out massive subsidies in the name of the poor. The larger budgetary objective to raise growth through infrastructure spending and an increase in provincial revenues is commendable, but there still is room to review the policy of continuing populist schemes and giving subsidies. First things first.

The keepers of the provincial exchequer should do away with the wheat support price subsidy, which is an unnecessary burden on the provincial finances and will be pocketed by the flour millers and large commercial consumers. Next year this subsidy is estimated to cost taxpayers a whopping Rs28bn. The better way of supporting the poor is to directly put cash into their pockets.

The government also needs to reassess some new taxation measures to make them more effective and equitable. For example, the changes in agriculture income tax also nets farm income of below Rs0.4m, the threshold of income tax exemption. Similarly, wid-owed owners of 2-4 kanal houses have been exempted from payment of the new one-time levy of luxury tax on houses measuring two kanals and above in posh localities. But the property tax exemption for the same category of owners of five-marla residences has been withdrawn.

These examples underline the need to make provincial taxation equitable.

With the election over and behind us, the ruling party is now expected to implement stringent fiscal discipline for higher investment spending to help industry and agriculture grow and become competitive internationally and improve service delivery in the social sector. The resources being squandered on populist schemes like distribution of free laptops for drawing political mileage should be diverted to productive sectors for creating jobs. The post-18th Amendment responsibilities of the provinceshavecreatedalouder demand for quality healthcare, education, water supply and sanitation, etc from them. Punjab should lead the way on this count. At stake is the ruling PML-N`s claim that its mandate to govern at the centre and in Punjab is based on its economic performance in the province in the last five years. With the party also ruling at the centre, the PML-N would have no one but itself to blame for what it couldn`t do in the province in the next election.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]No radical steps: KP budget[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

THE PTI-led government has presented its first budget in KP with an outlay of Rs344bn. Putting together a budget within weeks of having taken over is a tough taskfor aninexperienced party. Add the fact that KP faces unprecedented challenges and undoubtedly PTI has to be given some leeway. Nonetheless, some conclusions are unavoidable. The PTIJI combine have not shown an inclination for much change in their first budget. There is little to indicate that the provincial government has taken any radical measures that mark a departure from the previous ANP government.

For example, the revenues are based on the same inflows as before. The only positive step on this side is to set up the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Revenue Authority to collect sales tax on services and haul in Rs6bn. Similar authorities have already been set up in Sindh and Punjab. By following suit the KP government has taken a step in the right direction.

On the expenditure side, too, there are few major changes. The reduction inthe expenses of the governor and chief minister are not indicative of any structural economic reforms.

The generous allocations to social sectors such as health and education are commendable but are they a departure from the past? Take education which includes the non-development expenditure of Rs66.6bn.

But the amount for education in the Annual Development Programme is Rs13.83bn, up from the Rs12.18bn that the ANP government had allocated in 2012-2013. This is an increase of a little over one and a half billion rupees. In comparison, the ANP government had increased the education allocation from Rs10.65bn to Rs12.18bn in 2011-2012. Judgement will have to be withheld on the government`s promise to ensure a 7pc growth rate in the next three years. Because regardless of what PTI can do, in a province afflicted by militancy, growth will remain a far away dream. Without security of life and business, intentions and corruption-free governance cannot deliver.

The KP government would do well to remember this.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Choppy waters: Ignoring safety measures[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

IN the stifling summer heat it is indeed tempting to hit the beachin order to cool off. Unfortunately, many people throw caution to the wind when at the seashore and ignore safety protocols. Hence a tragedy which occurs every year repeated itself on Sunday, when five men drowned off Karachi`s Hawkesbay beach, while another three picnickers drowned in Thatta`s Keenjhar lake. People`s behaviour can at times be foolhardy, as they are unaware of the hazards they face. For example dipping infants into the water or going for a swim with not even rudimentary swimming skills in a rough sea displays a lack of awareness and common sense. Both KMC and the Aman Foundation, a private concern, deploy lifeguards at Karachi`s beaches, but there is little that rescue personnel can do when faced with a hostile public not conversant with basic safety precautions.

Family members can get violent as rescuers try torevive swimmers, while lifeguards are threatened if they get too close to beachgoers.

For the public`s safety the state must improve the infrastructure at beaches and lakes, while a public awareness campaign highlighting safety precautions must also be launched. Rescue personnel point out there are no ambulances or mobile hospitals stationed at Karachi`s beaches; the presence of such facilities could save more lives.

Warning signs also need to be put up in Urdu at beaches and lakesides at frequent intervals. The public must be informed through the media not to venture into rough waters and to cooperate with rescue personnel. Lifeguards must also be stationed at Keenjhar and other popular lake resorts in Sindh.

The province`s beaches and lakes are natural wonders that offer respite from the heat, yet the public must act in a responsible manner when in and around water.

kal3m Friday, June 21, 2013 02:13 PM

Editorials from DAWN (20-06-2013)
 
[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Difficult path: US-Afghan-Taliban talks[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

UNHAPPILY, when it comes to anything involving Afghanistan, even extremely cautious optimism can seem misplaced.

On Monday, in an announcement clearly timed to coincide with the handover of all of Afghanistan`s security to the Afghan security forces, Taliban representatives held a press conference in Doha, Qatar and announced their willingness to seek a negotiated peace agreement.

But hours later, an attack in eastern Afghanistan left four foreign soldiers, presumably American, dead and yesterday President Karzai, in another apparent fit of pique, suspended his government`s negotiations with the US on an agreement to leave behind a residual foreign force in Afghanistan post-2014 and declared that the High Peace Council will only participate in the Doha talks if they are `Afghanled` something the Afghan Taliban have showed little interest in. If Mr Karzai is maddening, the Taliban are frightening, the US is vexing and Pakistan is opaque, meaning there is virtually nothing that can be said with any certainty about the prospects for a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan other than that there will be many bumps on the road to peace.

Nevertheless, it is a positive sign that the US and the Afghan Taliban have been able to move beyond their stubborn insistenceon talking past each other rather than directly to one another. The Taliban`s incentive to talk peace with an exiting superpower in a war that the US will clearly not win has always been hard to pin down: why would a resilient and powerful insurgency borne of a regime that ruled Afghanistan until the Americans arrived in 2001 give away anything at the negotiating table just because domestic opinion in the US had turned against the Afghan war, triggering a massive scaling down of US commitment to Afghanistan? If that answer has never been clear, there does seem to be another incentive for the Taliban to show up in Qatar: having an official address where the world can interact with the Afghan Taliban and they can sideline an Afghan government that is accepted as weak and unsustainable, particularly with President Karzai or his cohorts calling the shots.

Which is perhaps why Mr Karzai has reacted with such fury to the Taliban`s attempt to infuse its office in Doha with the aura of an alternative seat of Afghan power. Such are the many hiccups on an uncertain path to peace.

For Pakistan, perhaps an assurance should be sought from the Afghan Taliban that Pakistan too will not be threatened by groups operating on Afghan soil.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Reprehensible tactics: Mardan funeral bombing[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

ATTACKING a funeral is diabolical by any standard, yet religious militants in Pakistan have no qualms about using such bloody tactics to forward their aims. Though no group has yet claimed responsibility, the suicide bombing that targeted a funeral procession in Mardan on Tuesday bears the mark of extremist insurgents, who have used similar tactics in the past. Over 30 people were killed, including Imran Mohmand, a provincial lawmaker elected as an independent, but who voted for the PTI in the election for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly`s leader of the house. Police feel the legislator was the target as he had already been receiving death threats. Over the past few days we have seen the scale of violence and level of ferocity the militants are capable of, from the killing of two polio vaccinators in Swabi to the assault on a busload of women students and subsequent siege of Quetta`s Bolan Medical College. These attacks show that religious militants` targets are widespread and not limited tosymbols of the state or security forces civilian non-combatants are equally fair game. By indulging in wanton violence the militants are destroying the fabric of society.

Still, a state of denial regarding the militants persists. Though PTI chief Imran Khan condemned the Mardan bombing, other party leaders linked the attack to drone strikes.

Believing such a theory will perhaps be a difficult task even for diehard PTI supporters. The PTI, as well as the PML-N, still believe in a negotiated settlement with religious militants. They must make it clear how they will go about this. Who will they talk to and what will be the terms? Imran Khan`s party in particular faces a moment of truth. It has already lost a provincial legislator earlier this month when Fareed Khan was shot dead in Hangu, also reportedly by extremists. Now, another lawmaker linked to the party has lost his life. The PTI needs to come to terms with the militant threat and not offer far-fetched explanations that appear to justify extremist violence.

[B][CENTER][SIZE="5"]Same old document: Sindh budget[/SIZE][/CENTER][/B]

SINDH`S budget for the next financial year doesn`t betray signs of a party that has just lost the elections in the rest of the country and is willing to change.

Nor does it signal a determination that the ruling PPP is gearing up to fight back on the strength of a better performance in the province. The party`s next provincial budget showing an outlay of Rs617bn is another routine document containing millions of numbers that hide more than they reveal. It lacks bold initiatives that were necessary to boost the provincial revenues to reduce the province`s dependence on federal transfers for development and other expenses especially devolution. Although the budget commits to expanding the base of provincial sales tax on services to boost its collection next year, the initiative has been taken halfheartedly. Some services have beenleft outand others will be charged at a much lower rate than thestandard 16pc. Agriculture income tax reforms have again been put off. Few other initiatives like a hike in property tax to raise provincial tax revenues have also been proposed, but the objective of increasing it significantly will be a major challenge for the government. Punjab has shown a stronger will to raise its tax revenues than Sindh.

The province`s development spending target of Rs185bn also seems to be ambitious given the fact that it could spend slightly more than half the targeted amount of Rs181bn this year owing to the massive shortfall in federal transfers and low provincial revenues. Besides, improvement in provincial taxes and optimal utilisation of development funds will largely hinge on peace in urban Sindh, particularly Karachi. This is what Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah needs to focus on.

The province`s financial matters should be left to a full-time minister.


05:32 PM (GMT +5)

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