The CII – again

THE Council of Islamic Ideology has yet again illustrated the utter irrelevance of its existence and its capacity for dredging up matters that would do well without its input. Following a meeting of the Council, its chairman Maulana Sheerani said that the body will recommend to the government that three pronouncements of divorce at a time should be criminalised — even though they would nevertheless have the effect of dissolving the marriage — because it is against the spirit of the religion. The Muslim Family Law Ordinance, 1961 has already laid down the procedure for divorce and the CII’s statement only sows confusion in a social milieu where tradition and custom, especially in matters of marriage and divorce, often take precedence over legislation. Moreover, not for the first time, the body has rejected as un-Islamic the clauses of the Muslim Marriage Act, 1939 that allow women to seek divorce on the grounds of their husbands’ remarriage without their consent. During its deliberations, the CII also arrived at the conclusion that only women above the age of 40 could become judges and that too on condition that they observe purdah.

The CII, particularly in recent years, has been on a consistently regressive march, its statements arousing derision and outrage in equal measure. And as is the wont of those who use religion as a crutch to pontificate on social issues, the fixation of its members has largely been on women’s rights — more specifically, on how to circumscribe them further. It has shown itself resistant to logic and technological advances, not to mention judicial precedent. In 2013, for example, it said that DNA evidence — used the world over to definitively affix criminal responsibility — should be treated only as supplementary evidence in cases of rape, contrary to several judgments by Pakistan’s superior courts in which DNA results have been admitted as primary evidence. Instead, the CII urged reliance upon the testimony of four eyewitnesses as primary evidence, thus conflating rape with adultery, for which such evidence is required under the law. Then last year, it said that laws barring child marriage were ‘un-Islamic’, notwithstanding the evidence of the terrible physical and psychological toll this inhuman custom exacts upon minors, particularly girls.

One may well question the wisdom of retaining the CII on the statute books at all, that too with a parliament bound by the constitutional stipulation that no law will be passed contrary to the Quran and Sunnah. The judiciary and media also play a watchdog role over the content of proposed and existing legislation. Although the recommendations of the Council are not binding upon parliament, it serves as a platform for unelected representatives of right-wing persuasion to influence public debate and create roadblocks in the way of progressive legislation. The public should no longer have to suffer the ponderings of this august body.

Anti-torture bill

WHETHER in times of conflict or of peace, state-sanctioned torture and killings in custody are totally unconscionable. However, though such grim methods of extracting information or punishing suspects may be morally unacceptable, they remain part of the norm for law-enforcement and security officials in Pakistan. Elements within the military, paramilitary units, intelligence agencies and the police have all been accused of torturing suspects in this country, as well as of involvement in custodial killings. Though the state machinery may deny it, it is no secret that in lock-ups and internment centres across Pakistan, violence and torture are rules of thumb.

Considering the situation, it is a welcome development that a Senate panel has given the green light for a proposed law — the Anti-Torture Bill — that calls for a life term and heavy fine for any government official involved in custodial killing or rape. Along with widespread torture, sexual violence against women in custody remains a major concern. Pakistan had signed the UN Convention against Torture in 2008 but enabling legislation defining torture was lacking. It is also significant that a state of emergency, war, political instability or following a superior’s orders will not be acceptable defences to justify torture under the proposed legislation.

Human rights activists had for a long time been campaigning for legal instruments that would clearly outlaw barbaric practices such as custodial killings and torture. Though torture is indeed unconstitutional, the absence of clearly defined laws has given a loophole to security officials to get away with the appalling practice for decades. Torture is so ingrained in the system that it will not be an easy task to eliminate it. Yet the bill is a much-needed and bold step in the right direction and we hope it is passed into law without delay. For too long, society has tolerated brutality in the name of law enforcement. Rather than lessen crime and terrorism in society, torture and violence against suspects only breed more violence, apart from being inhuman. If the proposed law is implemented in spirit — which will be a tough task — it will send a strong message to officials that impunity will not be tolerated. Regardless of the fact that the state may be dealing with suspected militants or criminals, all law-enforcement activities must respect fundamental rights and no extrajudicial and inhuman methods can be tolerated in the name of laying down the law.

Sindh resignations

SINDH’S ruling party has said that the approaching Senate elections have nothing to do with the acceptance of the resignations by the provincial assembly’s four PTI members. The denial is hard to accept since there is nothing else on the horizon that would explain the PPP’s step. The PTI members had sent in their resignations last August to protest against the alleged rigging of the 2013 elections. In the period that followed, the PPP had changed tack many times. It often chose to play a staunch ally of the PML-N but did occasionally manage to overcome its meekness to politely advise Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif against frustrating Imran Khan to a point where it became too dangerous for whosoever was in power. If anything, of late, some sections within the PPP have been found to be increasingly sympathetic to Mr Khan’s rigging refrain. For instance, Aitzaz Ahsan, the more respectable among the PPP men and a senator, has been offering the most vocal support to the PTI’s cause.

There is also Khursheed Shah, the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, who has just renewed his offer of mediating between the PTI and the PML-N government at the centre. It makes for a very uneasy equation when the aspiring mediator suddenly discovers some forgotten resignation letters filed by one party to the dispute and decides to exercise its right to accept them. The message is that the grand ideals of reconciliation which PPP supremo Asif Ali Zardari has been pursuing are open to compromise in the face of an impending election to the upper house. This is bound to spike tensions whereas in the given national situation stalemate on this count could have been a better option. In the wake of daily fights with the MQM and groups from other parts of Sindh, the PPP should have been careful to not open too many fronts at the same time. Meanwhile, the Sindh Assembly’s decision notwithstanding, other assemblies holding on to PTI resignations should persuade the protesting legislators to return.

Published in Dawn, January 23rd, 2015.

Banned or not?

IT ought to be a straightforward answer to a simple question: has the Pakistani state taken any measures in recent weeks against, among others, the Haqqani network and Jamaatud Dawa that impact on the legal and operational status of those groups on Pakistani soil? Unhappily, even in this most straightforward of cases, the Pakistani state is being anything but direct and honest. The Foreign Office tells the media to check with the Interior Ministry and Nacta; the otherwise voluble and media-attention-loving Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan goes silent; anonymous bureaucrats and unnamed officials give contradictory statements; parliament is given ambiguous answers to direct questions; and nowhere does anyone in any relevant public office show any inclination to inform the public of what is or is not being done in their name.

Meanwhile, the conspiracy theories are growing more feverish: an outright ban, frozen bank accounts, restrictions on foreign travel of JuD leaders — whatever new measures have been taken, it has all been done at the behest of the US to placate an angry India and assist the Afghan government. Such conspiracy theories do more than confuse the public; they strike at the heart of the consensus this country needs, that the fight against militancy is Pakistan’s own and not imposed by the outside world on a hapless nation. All the confusion can be cleared up by a simple, authoritative statement by the interior ministry, or — given the implications for national security policy — by the Prime Minister’s Office. But, in a way that echoes the old practice here of saying one thing (or saying nothing) and doing another, the government has chosen to remain silent — just as the state alternates between remaining silent about drone strikes and condemning them.

Just as once upon a time the army-led security establishment cut clandestine — sometimes, public — deals with militant groups while claiming it was opposed to religiously inspired militant groups existing on Pakistani soil. And just as the state banned Lashkar-e-Taiba, but allowed it to first morph into Jamaatud Dawa and now, to some extent, into the Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation. A simple path towards clarity — at least in terms of designation and profiles — in the present instance was offered by the Supreme Court on Thursday: make public the names of proscribed groups and translate anti-terrorism laws into local languages to increase awareness. As the Supreme Court observed, often the public is unaware that groups operating as social welfare networks or collecting charity are in fact designated by the state to be terrorist groups. That has the effect of allowing the groups to grow and even gain public affection by pretending to be something they most certainly are not. Perhaps it will be easier to begin to believe that the era of good militants/bad militants is over if the state can bring itself to name and ban all militant groups.

King Abdullah’s death

THE passing away of Saudi king Abdullah in the small hours of Friday comes at a time of great tumult in the Middle East. Across the kingdom’s southern border, Yemen is in a state of chaos while across the northern frontier in Iraq, the so-called Islamic State remains a threat. Within Saudi Arabia, there are sporadic protests in the mainly Shia Eastern Province, while a budget deficit looms on the horizon, brought about by low global oil prices. The late king, who was around 90, had not been keeping well, while speculation had been rife about how the generational shift of power would take place within the desert kingdom. Abdullah ruled for a decade, though he had effectively been running the government in the absolute monarchy 10 years before his accession to the throne when the then king Fahd was incapacitated by a stroke. He oversaw cautious reforms in the conservative state, though perhaps the monarch did not go far enough in expanding his subjects’ civic rights. The late ruler shielded his kingdom from the winds of change triggered by the Arab Spring by injecting billions into social programmes, while an unofficial cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran saw both Middle Eastern powers square off through proxies in various regional hotspots during Abdullah’s rule.

Salman, the new Saudi sovereign, will have to steer the kingdom through myriad crises. Reports indicate the monarch, who is also of advanced age, is in poor health. This means that Crown Prince Muqrin — who was until only a few years ago a dark horse within the House of Saud — may play a greater role in governance and policymaking. But perhaps the most important development following Abdullah’s death is the appointment by Salman of Mohammed bin Nayef as deputy crown prince. This means that for the first time in Saudi Arabia’s eight-decade history, a grandson of founder Ibn Saud has officially been named in line for the throne. The House of Saud will need to strike a delicate balance between different camps within the royal family, the clerical establishment and tribal interests — the traditional poles of power in Saudi Arabia — to steer the country through choppy waters. As the kingdom confronts numerous internal and external challenges, the international community will be watching to see a stable transfer of power in one of the world’s leading oil producers, and the home of Islam’s two holiest cities.

Polio arrests

IT would be flint-hearted not to spare a thought for the family of young Mohammad in the Dhodha area of Kohat district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is bad enough that the three-year-old has received a confirmed diagnosis of polio; the fact that his father was arrested on Thursday for having refused to let the child be administered the vaccination will only make matters more difficult for the family. Two other men were similarly arrested on the same day, in the same area, for refusing to let their children be given OPV doses. And these detentions follow those of over 50 others so far in the area this year alone, for the same reason. The periods of confinement these men will suffer is unlikely to be long, given that they have been arrested under the Maintenance of Public Order law. It can only be hoped that now that the law has taken such extreme action, these men and others will allow themselves to be persuaded to change their position.

It might seem a travesty that such force is being used against opponents of the vaccine. Unfortunately, the realities of the environment prevalent in the country vis-à-vis the vaccination campaign do dictate severe measures, even if not precisely this one. Not just is polio spreading at an appalling pace in Pakistan — 2014 drew to a close with the tally of new cases having crossed the 300-mark — the country is also poised to infect the rest of the world, which is overwhelmingly polio-free. Pakistan-specific strains of the virus have been found in other countries, and there are fears that the herd-immunity of the world population may be compromised. Pakistan must urgently employ some blue-sky thinking. Where the threat of arrest is perhaps an extreme way of forcing parents to accept the vaccine, an effective measure could be to link the issuance or renewal of vital documents to proof of vaccination. Desperate times require desperate measures, and the danger this country is courting has never been more obvious.

Published in Dawn January 24th, 2015.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Yemeni crisis

UNLESS better sense prevails and all stakeholders choose the route of dialogue to address their differences, the impoverished state of Yemen could well plunge into anarchy. While confessional, tribal and regional divisions threaten Yemen’s stability, unless efforts are made to bridge these divides, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, which has a strong foothold in the country, may well emerge as the biggest beneficiary of the chaos. The political crisis intensified when the president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, resigned on Thursday, after the rebel Houthi militia surrounded the presidential palace. The Zaydi militia — based in the country’s north — swept into the capital Sana’a in September, and is perhaps the most powerful single political and militant group in Yemen. Mr Hadi, a US ally from the south, says the Houthis did not honour a peace deal while parliament is yet to accept his resignation. Thousands of people have marched both in favour of and against the Houthis as Yemenis, as well as regional states, keep a close eye on developments in the hopes of a breakthrough. There has been no reduction in rampant corruption and poverty ever since former strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced from power in 2012 in a popular uprising. Many Yemenis thought the Houthis would usher in change, yet what has resulted is political gridlock and a collapsing state.

Regional states must make more of an effort to defuse the crisis before Yemen implodes. While the Houthis — Zaydi Shias by faith — are believed to have some Iranian support, rival tribes apparently have Saudi backing. Hence perhaps it is Riyadh and Tehran that need to actively engage on this front to address the crisis and urge their allies in Yemen to come to a negotiated settlement. What needs to be realised by all in Yemen as well as the international community is that should the state collapse completely, AQAP will have the field wide open to plan and execute further acts of terror. The militant outfit claimed responsibility for the Paris magazine killings while it is a staunch opponent of the Houthis, having attacked the militia as well as the Yemeni military. The Houthis and their political rivals need to find common cause against AQAP and help preserve Yemen’s unity. Regional powers should also put aside geopolitical differences and use their influence to neutralise AQAP. In a region afflicted by wars and militant insurgencies, the terror network should not be given room to expand.

Health sector mess

AS the process of decentralisation to the provinces began in the wake of the 18th Amendment health was one sensitive area where the transfer had to be swift and smooth so as to prevent distress to the general public. This sector has thrown up several challenges. For instance, there have been issues of jurisdiction in the purchase of vaccination drugs and there has been confusion as to whether the provincial or federal government was responsible for overseeing education at autonomous medical colleges. Not least, there has been a debate about the need for achieving some uniformity in the standards of treatment at public-sector hospitals all over the country and in the service structure of those employed in the sector in the provinces.

The latest controversy pertains to the reputable Sheikh Zayed Hospital in Lahore. More than 65 members on the faculty of the Postgraduate Medical Institute affiliated with it expressed their inability to carry on with their teaching assignments. They said they had no option but to discontinue after their teaching fees were stopped. The provincial health department has since responded by promising an early resolution to the problem, but this will need to go beyond the provision of ad hoc relief. There is no great mystery about where and how a permanent solution can be found. Sheikh Zayed is an autonomous facility, a midway option for those who cannot or do not want to go to either the overburdened, messy public-sector hospitals or the more costly private clinics. Its affiliate teaching institute enjoys respect, attracting students at various levels. The hospital and the teaching institute are required to be run by a board of governors previously approved by the federal government. After decentralisation, in 2012, the approving authority was passed on to the Punjab government, which has so far been unable to set up the board of governors. A board of trustees has already made its nominations. It seems to be a matter of attaching due priority to the case.

Obama’s India visit

Even before US President Barack Obama arrives in India — he is expected to arrive late this morning — Pakistan has already featured in the conversation. In an international norm for such high-profile visits, Mr Obama gave an interview to a local publication (in this case, India Today) prior to his arrival on a state visit and, perhaps inevitably, he was asked about the Mumbai attacks and the issue of militant groups with regional agendas operating from Pakistani soil. Mr Obama spoke plainly, though he said nothing new or surprising — or even disagreeable. After all, the political and military leadership of this country now routinely insists that its goal is to eliminate terrorists ‘of all stripes’ and ‘every hue and colour’ from Pakistani soil, so when an American president says that safe havens are “not acceptable” and that the architects of the Mumbai attacks must “face justice” that only echoes what Pakistani leaders themselves have been saying. In addition, Pakistan itself has put on trial Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and several other members of the Lashkar-e-Taiba for crimes related to the Mumbai attacks — meaning that the Pakistani state itself believes justice has yet to be delivered to the victims of that shocking episode in 2008. To be sure, there is an element of playing to the gallery involved in all such visits. Indian officialdom and its relatively nationalist media will likely try and elicit further comments on Pakistan from Mr Obama and other American officials that can be used by India to portray Pakistan in an even more negative manner. If they are to fail in that objective, perhaps some Indian official himself will say something provocative in the next three days to grab the headlines.

Here in Pakistan, that will present a dilemma for the government and foreign policy establishment — say nothing in response and risk being labelled as weak or say something through the Foreign Office and risk getting into a fresh war of words with India. Difficult as it may be, perhaps silence would be the better option here. To begin with, Pakistan and India need to get out of this habit of incessant, meaningless competition: if Mr Obama goes to India, that is India’s business; when Mr Obama visits Pakistan, that should be Pakistan’s bilateral matter. In addition, nothing any Pakistani official says here in the midst of an US-India summit would have any impact on what’s discussed by those two sides. Perhaps the only thing that should be remembered, or even reiterated publicly, is that dialogue between Pakistan and India needs to restart; there are several major and legitimate concerns on both sides; and, regardless of the state of relations with India, Pakistan’s foremost concern is to win the fight against militancy domestically — against all militant and terrorist groups. Every turn in the spotlight for India should not automatically alarm Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, January 25th, 2015.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Arms on campus

IT seems that better sense finally prevailed last week as the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government reconsidered its decision to allow arms on the premises of educational institutions. Earlier, the KP information minister had stated that the provincial cabinet had authorised the employees of educational institutes to carry licensed arms with them. While the idea itself of promoting the presence of weapons on campus is appalling, even more preposterous was the reason in this case: that the weaponry they carried would facilitate the staff in engaging with assailants in the initial moments of an attack. It quite seemed to have escaped the authorities’ attention that those involved in such an assault would most likely be hardened militants, ready to fight to the death, and not ordinary criminals who might be scared away by a security guard or a watchman with a gun. Thankfully, after a representative body of KP’s primary school teachers volubly rejected the move, the provincial government distanced itself from it, with the provincial education minister saying that his department had not issued the directives and that his government would not encourage teachers to take arms to school. The KP government did well by rescinding its decision, even as across the country schools were being asked to ensure that their premises were protected by gunmen. Security must be boosted at education institutes but are guns necessarily the answer?

Some accidents have already occurred as schools hire the services of armed security. Quite recently, four schoolgirls in Mansehra were injured when the gun held by a private security guard hired by the school went off accidentally, with one student receiving a bullet near her eye. Before that, in Rawalpindi, a college student was similarly injured; in this case, it was found that the guard had never received any training in handling firearms. Better ways have to be found to protect campuses. True, the fear factor in the aftermath of the Peshawar school tragedy is high. But the answer lies in implementing well-coordinated safety measures rather than encouraging the acquisition of guns.

Karachi mass transit

A NEW study just released on Karachi’s mass transit crisis makes one point very clear: there are some areas of public life that cannot be left to the vagaries of the private sector alone. According to the study, the state had already begun farming out the transport business to private-sector operators in 1971 under the free transport policy, but it was in 1997 that it withdrew from the obligation altogether with the disbandment of the Karachi Transport Corporation. Since then, mass transit in the country’s largest city, with an estimated population of 22m, has been left entirely to the private sector, which has struggled to keep up. Today, Karachi faces a shortfall of 8,676 buses on its roads.

The authors of the study detail two separate attempts since the end of the KTC to bring about some sort of public-private partnership in the transport sector. The first attempt was the Urban Transport Scheme in 2001 in which investors were invited to acquire routes and service them on government-controlled terms. The other attempt came in 2005 in the form of a donor-driven initiative to revive the Karachi Circular Railway that ran between 1964 and 1999, and was used by approximately 6m passengers per year at its peak. In both cases, the schemes have failed to take off due to the inability of the government to manage its responsibilities.

In fact, as the authors list one initiative after another over the decades since independence, it becomes clear that factors such as poor maintenance and inability to manage routes properly have been the reason why the government has failed in fulfilling its obligations in the mass transit area. The failure of KCR to move along in spite of the availability of financing, and all relevant studies, and its induction in the Karachi Transportation Improvement Project of 2010-12, is due to “the lack of political will and the absence of ownership of the project”. They also mention “the failure to develop a resettlement policy” for 23,000 people to be dislocated by the project. This contrasts with the slash-and-burn resettlement that was undertaken in the Lyari Expressway project. Clearly, the play of vested interest has been aligned favourably behind the expressway, but not the KCR. Karachi is home to the country’s largest concentration of working people, their commuting needs cannot be left to the private sector alone. The government must find its feet and move towards a viable mass transit system for the city.

Power blackout

ANOTHER major blackout occurred on Saturday night as sabotage on one transmission line that feeds power to Quetta rapidly cascaded through the entire transmission system, causing power plants to trip and shut down one after another across the country. Within minutes, all but a handful of power plants fell, leaving little more than 600MW of electricity in a system that was generating more than 9,000MW at the time. Two earlier acts of sabotage had placed all the burden of Balochistan’s full load onto one transmission network that runs between Guddu, Uch, Sibi and Quetta. When two pylons of a key line in this network were blown up, the entire load fell on the link that connects Guddu with Quetta, something that Guddu’s grid station could not bear. All three grid stations of the aging plant tripped as a result, which sent a disturbance cascading up and down the entire transmission system taking out power plants one by one throughout the country. The whole process took minutes to happen, but hours to reverse.

One positive to note through this affair is how the various components of the power system worked together to restart the system. The hydel plants operated by Wapda, the thermal power plants of Pepco, the independent power producers and K-Electric all coordinated to energise each others’ power plants in the dead of night. Wapda energised Pepco’s plants in northern Punjab, Pepco energised K-Electric (although on their Twitter feed K-Electric claim they started up “in island mode”, meaning they received no assistance in re-energising their system), and K-Electric energised Hubco. But this not the first time that our transmission grid has been brought down by a single event in one section. There were two blackouts in December, both centred on Guddu, that also cascaded through the system in this way, although their effects were felt south of the plant.

It is worth asking at this point, how hard it is to have systems in place that can serve as circuit breakers to prevent this sort of cascading, and what is being done to put such systems in place. The growing frequency of blackouts of this sort, that originate in a single event on the national grid but travel rapidly through the system to plunge entire areas of the country into darkness for prolonged periods, highlight the serious vulnerabilities that are nestled in our power system, and for some reason these vulnerabilities are coming increasingly into play these days. The power system is already groaning under the load of financial problems and efficiency issues, but this is one challenge that surely should have a simple solution.

Is somebody in the power bureaucracy following up on this? Is somebody asking what can be done to provide synaptic protections in the grid to ensure that adverse events are localised?

Published in Dawn, January 26th, 2015

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

A new chapter is possible

As the US and India bask in the glow of a rejuvenated friendship, a civilian nuclear deal that may finally deliver what it first promised in 2006 and some small-scale military deals, the feeling in certain quarters in Pakistan may be one of acute discomfort. After all, it does look like the world’s largest democracy and the world’s foremost advocate of democracy have more in common economically, diplomatically, and geo-strategically than anything the Pak-US relationship has to offer. To put it more bluntly, where the India-US relationship is seemingly about smiles and opportunities, the Pak-India relationship is about grimaces and perceptions of threat. However, the simplistic, reactionary approach would miss the perhaps historic opportunity that a closer diplomatic, economic and military relationship between India and the US could create: it will surely be in the interest of both those sides to nudge the India-Pakistan relationship towards normality.

Consider first the incentive for the American side. A conflagration in South Asia is fundamentally against American interests, not least as it expands its search for markets in India. In addition, for all the focus on a rising India being a counterweight to China on the eastern side of Asia, there are plenty of security interests that Pakistan sits at the centre of on the western side of Asia, from Afghanistan to Iran and from the Central Asian Republics to the tensions internal to Muslim societies in the Gulf. Not only have successive US administrations made it clear that Pakistan is a needed ally in the new century, it is also quite clear that India and Pakistan have their own roles to play in their respective spheres.

Consider then what closer ties between Delhi and Washington could mean: instead of the two ganging up on Pakistan on issues of security and Pakistan-based militancy, the incentives really are for the US to use its influence over India to try and push for the resumption of dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad. Of course, India will likely try and resist any such attempts by the US and the Modi government will certainly like to keep the pressure on. But international relations have a logic that goes beyond the wishes of a new leader, no matter how charismatic or ambitious. The Modi foreign policy team is largely made up of novices on the international stage: while they do seem to understand the logic of business and economics, they have struggled with security equations.

Pakistan certainly needs to do more — much more — to placate the outside world about its concerns regarding Pakistan-based militancy. However, nothing in the Modi government’s approach seems designed to induce those desirable security outcomes. Understanding economics and not security will only leave Prime Minister Modi’s India with lopsided vulnerabilities — meaning, it will eventually realise that there is no option but to talk to Pakistan. The key though may be Pakistani sincerity and purposefulness — will it sustain the push against militants it has begun?

Confusion at SBP

It must have been uncomfortable for State Bank Governor Ashraf Mahmood Wathra to announce the monetary policy statement on Saturday. A few hours earlier, the finance minister had already stolen his thunder by telling the world that the policy discount rate has been revised downward by a whole percentage point, even before the State Bank had made its announcement. The clarification issued later by the finance ministry sounded more like a hastily arranged affair, trying to convince us that the finance minister “was unaware of the exact timing” of the governor’s news conference. The point is that Finance Minister Ishaq Dar had absolutely no business announcing the interest rate reduction as some sort of victory. And if that was not the intention behind his slip of the tongue, then why even bring up interest rates in a presser that was largely about a judicial commission? The clear impression here is that he was telling the business community that this reduction in the cost of borrowing was something they owed to him. To top it all, the picture that was painted in the unusually long and convoluted statement accompanying the decision is not nearly as rosy as the authors would like us to believe.

For instance, we are told that the government has retired almost Rs450bn of borrowing from the State Bank in the first half of the fiscal year, but the amount it has borrowed from bank and non-bank sources is beyond Rs1tr. What is this if not simply a shift in the base of borrowing away from one source towards another? In the fiscal domain, revenue slowdowns appear to be papered over. Quarter two data is not presented, except in one line to simply say “42 percent growth would be required in H2-FY15 to meet the budget target of Rs2810 billion”. Everyone knows that 42pc growth in revenues is not about to happen, but the State Bank still prefers to talk about an ongoing “fiscal consolidation”. It is not very encouraging to see the overbearing eagerness of the finance ministry to announce a rate cut, but it is even more distressing to note how the bank is searching for ways to put a smile on an otherwise considerably dour state affairs, as regards public debt and fiscal affairs. The State Bank of Pakistan is an autonomous institution under the law, and it should be treated and behave accordingly.

Qadri’s case

The difficulties the police in this country face in gathering evidence, and prosecutors in mounting a strong case, are seen as the primary reason why so many suspects implicated in all sorts of crimes walk free. Consider the case of Mumtaz Qadri, who was sentenced on Oct 1, 2011 by an Anti-Terrorism Court and shortly afterwards filed an appeal. The evidence against Qadri, who openly confessed when charged with the gunning down in January that year of the Punjab governor, Salmaan Taseer, could not be more incontrovertible. But, more than three years after a guilty verdict, the case is still pending due to the appeal against Qadri’s sentence. Qadri has, meanwhile, set himself up as a ‘religious’ figure, and there is evidence that he has radicalised others including prison staff. Now, with another hearing scheduled before an Islamabad High Court division bench, it seems that the government is having difficulties getting a lawyer to agree to represent the prosecution.

Why this reluctance in what is an open-and-shut case? The reason is simple: fear. Lawyers contacted by this newspaper pointed out that hardly any special protection or security is provided to those who may find themselves in the crosshairs of criminals or extremists on agreeing to take flashpoint cases. The special judge of the ATC that passed the sentence against Qadri had to leave the country for fear of his life, and at the last hearing of the Qadri case in 2011, large numbers of his supporters gathered outside the IHC.

The threat is real, and society’s tilt towards extreme views is palpable. If this is the situation in this case, the fear factor in others where the men accused belong to violent gangs or militant groups, or are hardened criminals, can only be imagined. Pakistan’s situation demands effective provisions such as witness, lawyer and judge protection programmes, for those who prosecute or testify are in the end individuals. Without that, there is little hope of winning the long-term battle.

Published in Dawn, January 27th, 2015

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Cricket woes

WITH cricket’s showpiece event, the ICC Cricket World Cup, due to begin next month in Australia and New Zealand, the successive defeats experienced by the Pakistan team in tour games this week as well as a nasty row over central contracts have blighted the national team’s preparations. Pakistan’s back-to-back defeats at the hands of a lowly ranked New Zealand Board President’s Eleven has come as a setback. The team, though buoyed by skipper Misbah-ul-Haq’s recovery from a hamstring injury and the welcome return to form of Umar Akmal, failed to get its act together as both batting and bowling struggled to measure up in the two matches. Meanwhile, the team’s woes have been exacerbated by a needless central contracts row that has been simmering over the past few days, thanks once again to the short-sighted approach of the Pakistan Cricket Board officials.

Instead of issuing fresh contracts to the national cricketers based on their recent performances in international cricket, the PCB opted to extend their previously awarded contracts by three months. This has earned the players’ ire and, to a large extent, has taken their focus away from the job at hand. The PCB decision, besides being shorn of logic, has shown the star performers of the recent series in the UAE against Australia and New Zealand in a poor light. Capable players such as wicketkeeper Sarfraz Ahmed, batsmen Haris Sohail, Fawad Alam and pacer Mohammad Irfan have all failed to find a place in the top categories, while others that remained on the sidelines for the most part of 2014 owing to injuries and suspensions, dominate the contract ratings. The players have also expressed their reservations at the abolishment of the win bonus clause by the PCB which was earlier applicable on a per match basis. With each and every game having utmost importance in the World Cup, the players have demanded the PCB restore the win bonuses which are being seen as an incentive for them to excel in the extravaganza.

Forensic facilities

OUTDATED and ineffective methods of investigation and evidence collection are among the weaker links of Pakistan’s law-enforcement and justice systems. Evidence is mostly obtained through rudimentary methods, and combined with a flawed investigation process, this can result in letting criminals off the hook, or punishment for the innocent. However, if forensic science is properly employed, the scenario can change for the better. For example, Punjab’s Forensic Science Agency has set a positive trend and despite the limitations of the police force, is making an effort to change the culture of investigation and evidence collection. Set up in 2012 by a Pakistani-American expert with support from the Punjab chief minister, the multimillion dollar lab has been praised by independent observers.

The lab has covered nearly all the bases required for a facility to meet the demands of modern forensic investigation, most importantly DNA analysis. But as Ashraf Tahir, the lab’s director general, has said, the police lack training in how to secure crime scenes and collect evidence. This fact has been corroborated by Punjab’s inspector general of police. However, if training is imparted to the force — from the officer level down to the policeman in the field — there is no reason why evidence collection and investigation cannot significantly improve. Whether it is cases of terrorism or regular crime, well-equipped forensic labs staffed with well-trained professionals are essential in investigating incidents.

At present, Punjab’s facility is the only one of its kind in the country. Sindh has a forensic lab, but the facility lacks the capability for DNA analysis. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have no satisfactory forensic facilities. Perhaps Punjab’s forensic lab can be used as a template to be replicated in other provinces. In such troubled times, it is incomprehensible why each provincial capital does not have fully functioning forensic investigation facilities. This needs to change: along with establishing labs staffed with independent professionals who can run them, a thorough training of police forces is needed in each province so that modern investigation and crime scene preservation techniques become part of the law enforcers’ standard operating procedures. In a country where evidence is frequently compromised or even hosed down this is a tall order, but it is a change that is essential if police culture in Pakistan is to be positively transformed. Admittedly, such facilities and training will not come cheap; but we can ill afford to continue fighting crime and terrorism using obsolete methods.

Fixing responsibility

THE two-member commission appointed by the prime minister to investigate the recent petrol crisis has blamed the bureaucracy for the shortage, but has absolved everybody of ministerial rank. The report produced by the commission gives different reasons in different places for why the crisis happened at all. In one place it says the crisis was “a result of structural issues and not only an event-driven situation”; in another it openly speculates that private-sector oil marketing companies “may also be involved in creating this artificial shortage”. In yet another place it says the crisis “has a lot to do” with lack of fuel payments from the power sector, but then quickly brushes away these concerns saying “this is not a unique situation for the PSO”.

This is strange, considering that the strongest empirical evidence before the commission was indeed the power sector receivables, which they acknowledge stood at Rs171bn. This may not be a “unique situation” for the company, but defaulting on LCs is, and those defaults had begun long before the crisis arrived at the pumps, meaning the liquidity situation was getting difficult very early on. Yet the commission prefers to resort to speculation when assigning blame, saying for instance that “foul act” on the part of the OMCs “cannot be ruled out”. If such foul play “cannot be ruled out”, on what evidence can it be alleged? How solid is the evidence that the “foul act” was indeed responsible? In fact, in the absence of solid proof, the commission has invoked a speculative reason to try and deflect blame away from the sorry state of PSO finances towards some other, as yet unproven, cause. Beyond speculation, the commission has also indulged in wishful thinking, when blaming the lack of storage capacity for the crisis. If the commission wants us to believe that the PSO management is at fault because “[n]o efforts were made to manage 20-day required stock”, they need to answer a simple question first: when has Pakistan ever maintained three weeks worth of fuel stocks?

The whole report reads like a list of hastily made-up reasons for why responsibility for the crisis must rest only with those operating the oil supply chain machinery. The overriding question is whose job was it to oversee all these officials named in the report and to ensure that they were working together to accomplish their objective? And if nobody wants to assume that responsibility, can we at least know who appointed so many supposedly inept people to operate the oil supply chain? What steps were taken by the federal government when the crisis was brewing in late December? All views of the crisis eventually lead towards cabinet-level accountability, and it appears that the entire purpose of the commission report has been to pre-empt precisely this.

Published in Dawn January 28th, 2015

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Anti-militant push: out of steam?

MEETINGS, meetings, meetings — when the PML-N assumed office for a third time at the national level in June 2013, there was a widespread belief (or maybe just an impression) that the party would be more organised, more efficient and better in matters of governance than several, if not most, other governments in the chequered political history of this country. Fast forward 19 months and much of that hope has dissipated, though now it seems that even a modicum of sensible, smart action by the government is elusive. The PML-N appears to have settled into the following pattern: in Lahore, Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif takes notice of crises, requests a report — and then nothing is heard of follow-up actions; in Islamabad, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif convenes emergency meetings to respond to crises — and invariably the blame falls on bureaucrats instead of the close circle of politicians on whom the prime minister exclusively relies. Outside those bubbles, the country appears to do little more than lurch from one crisis to the next.

After the Peshawar school massacre, the country was well and truly at a crossroads. Not only was the public behind a serious and sustained effort to fight militancy, the state itself had been seemingly shocked into action. As the government of the day, primary responsibility for organising and building the civilian capacity of the state to take the fight to the militants in the urban and rural areas of Pakistan fell on the PML-N. However, after floating a 20-point National Action Plan, shepherding through parliament the army-demanded 21st Amendment and taking a few, scattered steps against extremist and militant elements, the PML-N seems to have run out of steam — and ideas and the will too. Where is this country’s Peshawar moment now? Energy — gas, electricity, fuel oil, petroleum, etc — is an important element of a government’s socioeconomic policy, but the basic, fundamental crisis in this country was, and remains, the fight against militancy. Where is the government’s urgency on that issue, when Prime Minister Sharif can convene a meeting to discuss the electricity and fuel crises involving the interior minister but not a word on the militancy and extremism issue?

In the wake of the horror in Peshawar, the government appeared to belatedly understand that terrorism is a long-term threat that can neither be defeated through military operations nor be rolled back without dismantling the enabling environment that the extremist mosque-madressah-social welfare network has created. But without any meaningful follow-up actions, the narrative was quickly hijacked by the religious right. Protests against the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and unspecified grievances against a non-existent new madressah policy gave the religious right and its extremist partners — in some cases, banned militant organisations — the excuse to turn out into the streets. Instead of pushing back the PML-N appears to have quietly acquiesced once again into a non-policy against militancy and extremism.

CPLC controversy

A BIZARRE drama unfolded on Tuesday involving Citizens-Police Liaison Committee chief Ahmed Chinoy and the paramilitary Rangers. As reported, in the early hours of Tuesday the Rangers ‘raided’ the Karachi residence of Mr Chinoy. The CPLC chief had initially confirmed the ‘raid’, but later in the evening denied that any such incident had taken place, adding that the ‘visit’ by the Rangers involved sharing information about an abducted youth. To add to the puzzling developments, the MQM had initially issued a scathing critique of the Rangers, in defence of the CPLC head. But when Mr Chinoy seemed to backtrack on his allegations, the Muttahida criticised him with equal fervour. Going by the information so far, the Rangers’ early morning visit would appear to be uncalled for, and the paramilitary force needs to clarify its stance on the matter. However, it is also true that this unsavoury event has tainted the once sterling reputation enjoyed by the CPLC, and all stakeholders need to explore ways to restore the organisation’s independence and credibility.

The events indicate that the CPLC has been politicised. This is unacceptable for an organisation that has served as a vital go-between — as its name suggests — linking the citizenry with the law enforcers. Whether it is helping solve kidnapping cases or assisting citizens with registering FIRs, the CPLC has for over two decades served as an essential public service organisation in Sindh, that has helped create a more public-friendly interface between the people and the police. That politics — or apparent mismanagement — should dent the reputation of such an institution is regrettable. It is difficult to build institutions in Pakistan and even more difficult to maintain them.

Hence if there are management issues within the CPLC they need to be addressed so that the latter’s image as an apolitical organisation can be restored. The committee must have smooth working relations with the police and Rangers, while the same is true for the law enforcers. Due to its various deficiencies — namely the unwelcoming atmosphere of the infamous ‘thana culture’ that prevails in Pakistan — the people are reluctant to approach the police directly in many cases. That is why especially in a crime-infested city like Karachi the CPLC serves such a valuable purpose. It is hoped that this ugly episode serves as a turning point and efforts are made to restore the professional and public-friendly image of the CPLC.

‘Teacher training’

EVER so often, the country demonstrates its almost unerring ability to either compound tragedy or to turn it into farce. Either indictment can be applied to the event in Peshawar on Tuesday, photographs of which have been circulating: women in bright dupattas drawn tightly over their heads, as custom demands in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, familiarising themselves with the use of assault weapons. This, it seems, is the new face of teaching in the province: books and pens replaced by guns in the hands of those entrusted with the care and education of children. It was appalling enough that matters had come to such a pass that schoolteachers feel so vulnerable. Even worse, though, is the cynicism with which the authorities turned the training sessions into a photo-op, as though schoolteachers with guns are not the worst possible distortion of what the future should hold, a perverted glorification of the very tools that have caused so much senseless bloodshed.

Up until Tuesday, some 10 educational institutions in Peshawar had requested the police for such training. That they felt it necessary to resort to such an extreme step should have been a matter of shame and a reason to introspect on all that has gone wrong. That said, clarity is desperately needed on what the KP government’s policy is regarding arms on campuses. At what level are these decisions being made — or reversed? On Jan 12, the KP information minister said that the provincial cabinet had decided to allow employees of all educational institutions to carry licensed arms on the premises, so that they could “engage attackers”. Just over a week later, the provincial minister for elementary and secondary education said that his department had never issued any such instructions and that his government would never encourage arms in classrooms.

So which is it? This is a matter of the gravest proportions; the KP government needs to clarify its stance immediately, and find ways of tackling insecurity other than by further militarisation.

Published in Dawn January 29th, 2015

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Anti-child marriage law

WHEN tradition militates against the well-being of individuals, and runs counter to advances in scientific knowledge, it is time to let it go. Too often though, tradition has many impassioned, blinkered defenders reluctant to discard time-honoured rituals and that is when the government can play an important role by legislating on the issue. Thus on Wednesday, the Punjab government declared its intention to discuss amendments to the family law and raise the minimum age for girls from 16 to 18 years, as well as penalise the non-registration of marriage with a fine of Rs50,000 and make it mandatory for the bride and groom to produce CNICs to enter into a nuptial contract. In most of Pakistan, the burden of being born female — with disadvantages of access to healthcare and education — is often compounded by the cross of early marriage. In a patriarchal and stultifying social sphere that places a high premium on a female’s child-bearing role, millions of girls become wives and mothers before they are mentally or physically capable of the attendant challenges. There are a number of health risks incurred by females thrust into such early unions, and resulting early motherhood, including obstetric fistula, death in childbirth and cervical cancer.

According to recent studies cited in a report in this paper, the latter is the second most common cancer afflicting Pakistani women, claiming a shocking 20 lives every single day. The country ranks seventh among countries with the highest rates of cervical cancer. There is, therefore, more than one good reason to welcome the Punjab government’s initiative to review laws that impact girls and women in far-reaching ways. The precedent was set by the Sindh Assembly in April last year when it passed the Child Marriage Restraint Act 2013, thereby making marriage below the age of 18 a punishable offence. Although changing hidebound attitudes takes time, at least there is now a legal framework to shore up and reinforce the effort. It would behove other provinces to follow suit.

Electricity for Karachi

THE debate, if it can be called that, surrounding the renegotiation of K-Electric’s power purchase agreement with the federal government, is getting caught in the wrong theme. This is not about the city of Karachi versus the rest of the country. It is about how we manage the consequences of a power crisis that has everybody in its grip, and that includes the residents of Karachi. Going by K-Electric’s own figure, 57pc of consumers in Karachi get uninterrupted electricity, but what is worth noting in this is that the remaining 43pc experience extended hours of load-shedding just like the rest of the country. When the Sindh chief minister says that Karachi needs the electricity from the national grid just like every other city does, he is stating a simple fact.

The negotiations with K-Electric should safeguard the larger public interest where pricing and transparency are concerned, but the talks should not work towards cutting this supply off to the country’s largest city. At a more philosophical level, it is hard to come up with an argument to not allow K-Electric to purchase electricity from the national grid. Every distribution company in the country purchases power from the grid, and Karachi cannot be an exception without good reason. But at a purely practical level, it is true that continued purchases of power from the grid serve as a disincentive for investment in further power-generation capacity. However, why should Karachi alone be told to invest in its own power-generation capacity? Why not make that demand of other distribution companies as well? In terms of quantity, K-Electric deals in almost exactly the same amount of electricity as Lesco, the distribution company that serves the city of Lahore and its surrounding areas.

Yet the burden of load-shedding is felt more in Lahore than in Karachi. Clearly, this is not because one city has more electricity than the other. Perhaps Karachi is better managed than Lahore. In renegotiating the agreement, the federal government is right to ensure that any undue concessions given in the past must be removed. It is also right to underline the question of incentivising investment in the utility by the private-sector sponsors. But the city should not be spoken off as a foreign land, and the theory should not be peddled that somehow the residents of Karachi are consuming more power than everybody else in the country.

The wrong priorities

OVER a year after the electoral process had begun, Balochistan finally has an elected third tier of government. With the election of mayors, deputy mayors and chairmen of district and union councils on Wednesday, Balochistan has become Pakistan’s only province to currently have elected local bodies. While there is some talk of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa holding the polls a few months from now, there is silence in Punjab and Sindh on the question of dates when it comes to the crucial elections. However, compared to the state’s apparent disinterest in holding the polls in these provinces, MNAs have managed to pull off quite a feat by securing funds for their respective constituencies. As reported on Thursday in this paper, the government has decided to give lawmakers in the National Assembly development grants of Rs20 million per year under the head of ‘community development schemes’.

The PML-N was said to be under considerable pressure from the lawmakers to release the funds and the lobbying has clearly paid off. Yet keeping the mantra of good governance in mind, the money will be routed through the district coordination officers, to ensure that the bureaucracy and parliamentarians jointly oversee the disbursement of funds. A similar scheme of funds’ distribution was tried under the previous PPP administration but was criticised for mismanagement. While diverting funds towards development activities in all districts is a good idea, we must question the spirit of this move, especially in light of the state’s disinterest in LG polls. Essentially, overseeing development work at the grass roots is the domain of local bodies, and that is where the funds should be going. But since there are no elected local representatives in three provinces, MNAs — along with the bureaucracy — have assumed this role. Is this in line with the spirit of decentralisation and devolution, or does it smack of the old thinking where elected local bodies were viewed as a threat to power?

The government’s move to grant funds appears to confirm the feeling that both the rulers and MNAs are least interested in the holding of LG polls. It is unfortunate that the people’s representatives are proving to be the primary obstacle in the path of elected local governments, perhaps afraid that their power and influence will be eroded if citizens turn to local governments to solve routine civic problems. As a minister told this paper, the release of funds is designed to “engage local communities who could take ownership of the schemes through these grants”. Instead of such schemes, the best way to engage and empower local communities is to pave the way for local elections, so that people can choose their representatives at the grass roots. If Punjab, Sindh and KP’s lawmakers are truly sympathetic to their constituents’ concerns, they should lobby their governments with equal fervour to hold LG polls at the earliest.

Published in Dawn, January 30th, 2015

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Governor’s resignation

AN increasing number of Pakistanis, who have done well abroad, would like to remove disparity between the countries where they have prospered and the land of their origin. Of those who actively try many are frustrated by the system here. We can add to this list the name of Chaudhry Muhammad Sarwar who quit as governor of Punjab on Thursday. On the face of it, Mr Sarwar was in a privileged position. He was believed to have cultivated a close relationship with the Sharif brothers during their years of exile in the UK where Mr Sarwar ran a successful business and had earned a name in politics. As Punjab governor, however, he was perhaps too assertive to adopt the style the Sharif brothers preferred. Indeed, tensions were apparent not too long after his appointment in August 2013 — and these were reflected in the impatient, then frustrated, tone in which he pressed for reform and the revamp of the system. He drifted away rather quickly from those at the head of the system, ie the Sharifs. Mr Sarwar’s departure came soon after he had questioned Pakistan’s foreign policy in the wake of President Barack Obama’s recent visit to India. But it is very probable that he had realised much earlier how ineffective he was as governor, in contrast to his own description of the job.
The erstwhile governor possessed initiative and he preached dialogue and development. It was no small feat that he managed to catch people’s attention in the presence of a chief minister as prominent as Shahbaz Sharif. Even when his exit as governor was imminent there was talk as to how he could still be utilised as a federal adviser. There is now speculation about how he can contribute from the platform of a party other than the PML-N. But whereas his next move is keenly awaited, the Sharifs are bound to face strong criticism for yet again failing to coexist with other prominent figures.
Mr Sarwar survived accusations that he was in some way allied to the protest politics of Imran Khan and Dr Tahirul Qadri; there were even whispers that he coveted a role in a ‘soon-to-emerge’ caretaker set-up. He went with his reputation intact, putting the blame of his departure on a Sharif government that has been struggling to live up to the promise of good governance. He can be seen as a dissenter who has vindicated those who oppose the Sharifs.

Amir’s comeback

THE International Cricket Council’s landmark decision to allow Pakistan’s banned paceman Mohammad Amir to return to domestic cricket with immediate effect has given the young pacer a new lease of life besides making headlines everywhere. Amir, now 22, was banned by ICC from all cricket along with fellow players Salman Butt and Mohammad Asif following the infamous spot-fixing scam during the Pakistan tour of England in 2010. While Amir’s ban technically expires on Sept 2 this year, he has been permitted to make an early return to the game by the ICC’s Anti-Corruption and Security Unit that used its discretionary powers to facilitate the left-arm bowler for showing remorse and for cooperating with the unit’s ongoing investigations against corruption in cricket. Here, one must also not discount the role of the Pakistan Cricket Board that keenly pursued Amir’s case with the ICC. Its persistence paid off with cricket’s governing body approving a provision to allow banned players to make an early return to the game.
Amir, a bowler of immense talent, was hailed as a prodigy at the time of his international debut in 2009. He vindicated the experts’ faith in him by turning out impressive performances in all formats of the game. Having said that, Amir faces, perhaps, the stiffest challenge of his career today. Firstly, he will have to prove his detractors wrong by throwing off the stigma attached to his name and playing the gentleman’s game in its true spirit to take his career further. Secondly, he will have to convince the selectors that he has not lost any of the sting or panache in his bowling despite his almost five-year-long absence from the game, if he harbours any serious hopes of representing Pakistan again. Amir has vowed that his teammates and fans will find him a different man this time round and, to be fair to the young bowler, one feels he deserves a second chance after having served his punishment for a blunder committed in his formative years.

An expanding war

AS though caught in a grotesque time loop, the same spectacle plays out over and over again. This time in an imambargah in Shikarpur, where yesterday’s bomb explosion after Friday prayers killed around 50 people and injured scores, many of them critically. The intensity of the blast can be gauged by the fact that the building’s ceiling collapsed from the impact, trapping many underneath the debris. It was the second major sectarian attack to take place since the beginning of this year. The earlier one, responsibility for which was claimed by a TTP faction, occurred in a Rawalpindi imambargah, killing seven people and injuring nearly 20. But the attack in Shikarpur is significant for several reasons.

It is the first large-scale sectarian attack in interior Sindh, the traditional home of Sufi Islam, underscoring the need to expand the war against extremism beyond the tribal areas to cities and smaller towns. It is also damning evidence of how misgovernance compounded by state inertia can provide space for extremist elements to insidiously widen their influence. Over the past few years, critical, telling signs of the drift towards radicalisation and religious disharmony in Sindh have been ignored. A number of Hindu temples have been desecrated and there is a rising crescendo alleging forced conversions of Hindu girls. Deobandi sectarian groups have become increasingly assertive in what is traditionally a Barelvi ethos. Exploiting the wilful neglect of the education sector, madressahs have proliferated, enrolling droves of children from poor families and enabling them to absorb their divisive ideologies. The vacuum of governance that exists in Sindh does not bode well for controlling the sectarian forces that have entrenched themselves there, and the Shikarpur bombing may mark the trajectory of a yet deadlier chapter in extremist violence in Pakistan.

A recent Human Rights Watch report has castigated the government for failing to protect religious freedoms and prevent violence against minorities. There appears little hope of a change in this situation with the government seemingly unable to ride the crest of an unprecedented public consensus in favour of a robust response to counter the scourge of extremism. It was significant perhaps that when the attack took place, the prime minister was chairing yet another meeting on law and order, this time in Karachi. What has been the substance of its response apart from repeatedly going into a huddle with trusted aides in the aftermath of the Peshawar attack, and hanging some death row inmates in rapid succession? Where is the evidence of the National Action Plan being put into practice? While religious groups have appropriated the Charlie Hebdo issue to seize the initiative and demonstrate their street power, the state appears to be on the retreat, taking recourse to a timorous, fire-fighting approach that is far from what is needed at this desperately difficult hour.

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2015

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Youth skiing camp

IT is easy to forget that just a few years ago, many areas in Pakistan attracted bustling tourist traffic and there were several spots and resorts that showed the potential of achieving world-class standards. Much of this activity, and the economies it drove, have dried up since the country became mired in militancy and terrorism, especially in the north. This context lends greater significance to the few, but crucial, efforts that continue to be made with a view to clawing back to normalcy. It is thus heartening that the Pakistan Youth Outreach Programme recently organised a youth skiing camp at Zartghurben, a ski resort that lies a four-hour trek from the Shimshal valley in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Sponsored by several institutions, including the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme, the event brought together 13 women and 20 men from Karachi, Islamabad, Hunza and Shimshal, with two professional Austrian ski trainers on hand to teach the novices the difference between their baseplates and their baskets. Understandably, all the participants were pleased, with the president of the programme Mirza Ali — who, along with his sister Samina Baig, made headlines last year when they scaled the highest peaks on each of the world’s continents — renewing his commitment to promoting winter sports in Pakistan.

The initiative shown by this group is commendable, and should come as a reminder to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government that there is much that needs to be done in the province vis-à-vis tourism. One of the first steps could be the rebuilding of the Malam Jabba ski resort, in its heyday the largest such facility in the country with a much-appreciated infrastructure. Sadly, the resort was burned down by militants in June 2008, after having been closed for nearly a year while the area was under thrall of militancy. Injecting funds into and re-energising activities such as skiing, trekking and climbing would be one way of resisting the obscurantist push. The path to normalcy lies in revitalising what groups such as the banned TTP are trying to eliminate.

Non-serious approach

WHILE religiously inspired terrorism continues to take a bloody toll on Pakistan, there is little evidence that the state is taking intelligent steps to root out militancy. If anything, the government tends to announce half-baked measures that, on the surface, appear to make it look serious, but in reality mean little where neutralising militant infrastructure is concerned. Take for example the disclosures made in the Senate by Minister of State for Interior Baleeghur Rahman on Friday. The minister told the house that “only” 23 madressahs in Pakistan were receiving foreign funding. What was particularly incomprehensible was Mr Rahman’s claim that no seminary in Punjab received foreign funds.

Assuming that his figures are correct, the fact remains that it is not the seminaries where sources of funding — foreign or local — are known that are the problem; it is the madressahs that are unregistered and unregulated that pose the biggest security threat. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar recently said that 90pc of madressahs had no link to terrorism. Even if we accept that, what about the remaining 10pc? One estimate suggests there are 20,000 registered and 40,000 unregistered seminaries in Pakistan. Once we do the math it emerges that there are — at a minimum — hundreds of madressahs with thousands of pupils on their rolls that may have some connection with militancy. Hence to say that only a handful of seminaries receive foreign funding and leave it at that smacks of denial; the problem is much more complex and also involves support for madressahs from local sources whose credentials must be checked.

One part of the problem is identifying and taking action against those seminaries that are actively promoting militancy and sectarianism. But looking at the bigger picture, there are countless madressahs that — while not having overtly violent agendas — provide the groundwork for militancy to thrive. When young minds are taught to distrust and disassociate from members of other sects and religions, the seeds of militancy are planted. If such brainwashing intensifies, there is only a short distance from disassociating from the ‘other’ and physically eliminating him. The only solution is for the state to register and regulate all institutions imparting religious education and keep an eye on the curriculum to ensure no hate material is being taught. The clerical establishment has and will continue to resist all official efforts at regulation, but the state must act if it is serious about achieving its counterterrorism and de-radicalisation goals.

Unease about US-India deal

ADVISER to the Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz had some tough words on Thursday for the attempt by the US and India to put back on track the civilian nuclear deal between those countries. Speaking at a seminar in Islamabad, Mr Aziz said, “Pakistan is examining the imbalance and the possible ways and means for redressing it,” and added that “Pakistan’s key concern is the paramount importance of strategic stability in South Asia”. But what do those words mean? The Pakistani state has always resented and been suspicious of the Indo-US nuclear deal for essentially two reasons: one, the security establishment here fears that a flow of foreign nuclear fuel into India for civilian purposes will free up more of India’s own fuel supplies for diversion to military purposes; and two, the deal is a milestone in India’s attempt to elevate itself into the so-called global big boys’ club. In addition, hardliners here with long memories are not convinced that the safeguards built into the 2008 deal will prevent a replay of the 1970s when India first tested a nuclear device using nuclear resources that the Indian government had pledged were only being used for peaceful purposes.

Ultimately, it comes down to India getting a deal that is clearly not even on the negotiating table with Pakistan — the legacy of the A.Q. Khan proliferation network; concerns about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets from the militant threat; and Pakistan’s not having the growing economic heft of India or the ability to help the US balance out a rising China have all contributed to make a deal for Pakistan a non-starter. The Pakistani state’s response though can be one of two. It can either acknowledge that strategic stability is linked fundamentally to political relations and not try and make deterrence about simply pursuing more and more missiles and nuclear warheads, or it can take the paranoia route by acquiring more missiles, delivery platforms and warheads of sizes big and small. Perhaps what Mr Aziz should have done is deliver a more substantive, nuanced set of comments, one that highlighted the choices for the political government and the military establishment and that would inform the apex nuclear decision-making body, the National Command Authority. If a reinvigorated US-India nuclear deal requires Pakistan to tweak its own national security strategy, would it not make sense to contribute to the debate and shape it rather than just reiterate stock, tired phrases?

Consider that it has been nearly a decade since the deal with India has been proposed and its broad contours known. What has Pakistan done in the meantime? Has the military component of the national security response ever been debated? What about the economic and diplomatic components of national security and strategic stability? It seems words come easier than policy making here.

Published in Dawn February 1st, 2015.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')