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Old Sunday, March 01, 2015
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Saving Radio Pakistan

PERHAPS the best way to describe Radio Pakistan is to say that it is a giant in decline. Once the indispensable companion of most people through the day, it has for years now been more or less irrelevant to large sections of the population and a drain on the state’s coffers. The subsidy runs into the billions — though it generated Rs344m in 2013-14, the scale of expenses was such that the government had to provide a subsidy of Rs3.7bn. An effort was made some time ago to find a solution to this state of perma-crisis, with the Public Accounts Committee advising in 2012-13 that the entity chalk out a new business plan. In line with this, on Wednesday, the Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation proposed that an electronic cess be levied on the purchase of high-end mobile phones and on the registration of vehicles that could go towards covering the Rs4bn deficit Radio Pakistan runs into each year.

Such a move may help, but it seems that those at the helm of affairs have not really understood what underpins the problems of Radio Pakistan — or the latter’s huge untapped potential. In terms of entertainment and other non-news programming, the task for a public-sector media enterprise such as this is to carry programming that is in the public interest, such as infotainment and educational content, and that which is being sidelined because it does not draw advertising revenue — for example, it could provide a platform to classical and folk musicians. Such media platforms are the world over subsidised by taxpayers’ money, because this is where media content that is delinked from commercial concerns can be broadcast. On the news side, Radio Pakistan and Pakistan Television have since their inception been used as propaganda-disseminating government mouthpieces. This needs to end, with news programming being given parliamentary oversight instead so that more independent editorial policies can be adopted. Between them, these two entities have tremendous reach across the country — and the state needs to make them count.

Another jailbreak

THE successful escape on Friday of a militant involved in the Nanga Parbat massacre and another accused of killing one of the investigators in the case is only the latest in a growing list of jailbreaks by militants charged with heinous crimes. And once again the manner in which the jailbreak was executed suggests the possible involvement of elements among the prison authorities although details about how the escape was effected are still sketchy. Reportedly, four prisoners somehow managed to convince the prison guards that they were armed and made their escape. In the ensuing shootout, one prisoner was killed and another critically injured. The jail was guarded by three separate law-enforcement and paramilitary bodies, and if and when an inquiry into the event is undertaken, it must look into why security was not foolproof. The prisoners’ escape shows that holding hardened militants in jails meant for ordinary criminals is fraught with risk, even though, unlike two other jailbreaks — at Bannu and D.I. Khan — this incident did not involve a large force attacking the prison from outside.

The episode highlights the need for special detention facilities for hardened militants. Holding them in facilities meant for ordinary criminals only raises the likelihood of attacks launched by militants from outside, or an escape of the sort just witnessed. The fact that even after two large jailbreaks, and one incident in which an escape tunnel was discovered near a prison in Karachi, militants continue to be held in ordinary facilities and guarded by forces with poor training shows the authorities’ half-hearted approach to law-enforcement functions necessary in the fight against militancy. It is vital that the task of apprehending and detaining militants be taken far more seriously than it is at present. Rather than let the problem of weaknesses in the detention apparatus fester, only to be ‘handled’ through emotive and sudden calls for handing it over to the military — as was done with the courts — the challenge of holding militants in secure facilities needs to be addressed through effective, long-term measures. It is perplexing that hardened militants involved in the Nanga Parbat massacre should be held in a district jail in Gilgit. By now it ought to have been obvious that holding militants is serious business. Unfortunately, as the jailbreak makes clear, authorities here insist on learning their lessons the hard way. We can only hope that this pattern will change in the future.

Kashmir: the way ahead

IN the cauldron of Kashmiri politics, the union between the Narendra Modi-led BJP and Mufti Mohammed Sayeed-led People’s Democratic Party is more startling than it is necessarily cause for hope. After all, the election campaign run by the BJP in particular in India-held Jammu and Kashmir was nakedly communal and polarising. That the electorate responded by effectively voting along communal lines — the PDP and BJP have near equal representation in the Srinagar assembly, but BJP’s representation is from the Hindu-majority Jammu region and the PDP’s largely from the Muslim-dominated Kashmir valley — points to both the effectiveness of the campaign and the deep divisions that characterise politics and daily life in the region. The coalition government that has emerged after two months of fierce negotiations has been hailed outside the region, but inside India-held Jammu and Kashmir the sentiment is decidedly more mixed, and perhaps even dark. How the PDP and BJP will be able to sell their alliance to their constituents will depend largely on their ability to deliver on the so-called common minimum programme — to be released soon, according to both sides — and the government’s ability to deliver inclusive economic growth and clamp down on the corrupt ways of governance in the region.

Kashmir though is not just a local issue — a reality underlined by the intense interest far outside the borders of India-held Jammu & Kashmir in the birth of the unprecedented alliance. And, in this hour of unexpected hope, now may just be the time for India and Pakistan to revisit the fundamentals of their Kashmir policies. For Pakistan, that means recognising that the core policy — right to self-determination for Kashmiris and a Kashmir solution that is acceptable to the Kashmir population — has been distorted for too long and in too many ways by the armed jihad that was unleashed in the region with — no matter what the officially stated position is — the active collaboration and sponsorship of the Pakistani state. The rights of all Kashmiris were never going to be won through violence and a policy of militants and proxies has caused incalculable damage to Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, the Kashmir region itself and surely Pakistan too. For India, with the BJP now allied with a party that has explicitly demanded the retention of India-held Kashmir’s special status and urged the expansion of ties and resumption of dialogue with Pakistan, the Modi-led government may be forced to recognise the deep, open wounds that the politics of communalism and exclusivity engendered by Delhi have created.

From here, if the Indian and Pakistani states really do finally internalise the lessons from Kashmir, there is an obvious path: a quest for resolution of the Kashmir dispute along the lines of the formula that was pursued by the regime of Pervez Musharraf — and that did not go unappreciated by the Manmohan Singh government. Resolution is possible, peace achievable — if the political governments lead and the respective security establishments cede. A cautious hope, but surely not a forlorn one.

Published in Dawn March 1st , 2015
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Defence anxieties

First, the bad news. The Indian defence budget is set to hit a record high of $40bn. That compares with a basic and Pakistani military budget of roughly $7bn. Moreover, a good chunk of the Indian military budget has been set aside for capital acquisitions, ostensibly to try and keep up with rapid Chinese military expansion – though the security establishment here believes many of the items on the Indian military wish list are there with an intention of increasing its war capabilities against Pakistan. Now, to the somewhat better news. In percentage terms, the increase in the defence budget is lower than the current Indian fiscal year (April-March). Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is below two per cent and dropped further this year. And the latest budget suggests, according to Indian defence analysts, that the Narendra Modi-led government has decided to move more slowly than expected in meeting the demands of the Indian security establishment. There are two aspects here that are particularly worth bearing in mind, one for Pakistan, the other for India.

For Pakistan, the thought of the Indian military pulling out of sight in conventional terms can be an uncomfortable – possibly, unacceptable – one. However, not everything the hawks here perceive is necessarily true. Consider that while the Indian defence budget is set to cross $40bn, the Chinese defence budget is roughly four times larger. India also has to compete for control in the Indian Ocean, a formidably expensive proposition. Moreover, the Indian military’s modernisation project has come after years of under-investment – so the punch it can pack may not be as big as the $40bn figure suggests. The Pakistani security establishment is right to closely track Indian defence spending because India remains, in terms of its military capabilities, the principal threat to Pakistan’s security. But a rational, logical perspective is really what is needed rather than the wild conjecturing in some hawkish quarters.

For India, there should be a realisation that goes beyond the plain numbers: the further away it pulls from Pakistan in the conventional field, the more it will create pressure on Pakistan to perhaps lower the nuclear threshold to stave off the threat of conflict. Simply, much as some in India would like to separate the question of competing with China from the need to manage risk with Pakistan, the overall Indian military capability will send a message in both directions. Stability will only come from advancing dialogue with Pakistan.

Tensions with Dhaka

THE government of Prime Minister Hasina Wajed in Bangladesh appears to be on a mission to disrupt, even harm, ties with Pakistan. Last week, PIA flight operations to Bangladesh were suspended after the Bangladeshi authorities conducted raids in search of a PIA official stationed in that country on what appears to be the flimsiest of grounds. Earlier this month, a Pakistani diplomat in Dhaka was declared persona non grata and had to leave the country. In recent months, it has become increasingly difficult for Pakistanis to acquire visas for Bangladesh amidst allegations by Ms Wajed’s government that Pakistan is stoking unrest in Bangladesh and sponsoring militancy. Officials here have strenuously denied all allegations though they have sensibly steered clear of adding to the drama and handing Bangladeshi authorities an opportunity to push matters from the merely unpleasant into the potentially dangerous. While Ms Wajed appears to be the driving force behind this new phase of a downturn in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations, it is still not entirely clear what is animating the Bangladeshi prime minister’s antipathy towards Pakistan at this particular moment.

Part of the explanation must surely be domestic — as it almost always is in politics. The Awami League government is locked in a bitter struggle with the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party yet again, with the year-old government of Ms Wajed struggling to contain a street challenge by Ms Zia’s party that is clearly meant to overthrow the Awami League government. Invariably, jingoism, nationalism and the secular-vs-Islamist cards are trotted out in Bangladesh’s internecine political warfare — with Pakistan often being dragged into the mix because of the tragic, terrible events of the late 1960s and very early 1970s. But it does appear that the prime minister has either miscalculated or is simply being reckless in her bid to make Pakistan a political and diplomatic issue at this point in time. To be sure, if the Bangladesh state does have some legitimate concerns about Pakistani interference in that country, there are other ways to handle such problems. But such concerns are a two-way street.

Consider that over the years, it has been the near-constant refrain of nearly all Bangladeshi politicians that the Pakistani security establishment interferes in Bangladesh’s politics. Meanwhile, over here in Pakistan, there are long-running suspicions about India’s role in undermining good regional relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Legitimate concerns on both sides do need to be addressed, but surely not in the present hostile climate being created by Bangladesh.

IS’s war on heritage

CONSIDERING that the zealots of the self-styled Islamic State feel no compunction about putting men, women and children to the sword, it would be naive to assume that the militants would have second thoughts about pulverising historical artefacts. In fact, as recent events illustrate, the IS hordes are actually celebrating their vandalism targeting Iraq’s cultural and historical treasures and its houses of learning. In one video that surfaced recently, bearing the outfit’s insignia, men can be seen rampaging through what appears to be a museum; reports indicate the facility is located in Mosul, the Iraqi city that was overrun by IS in June 2014. The modern-day vandals are seen toppling statues and smashing artefacts to dust. In a related incident, IS is believed to have torched Mosul’s main library resulting in thousands of books and manuscripts going up in flames. Iraq’s ancient treasures have been under assault from looters ever since the 2003 US invasion. But with the rise of IS the war on culture and history has gained alarming pace.

This is not the first time that IS militants have ransacked libraries or houses of learning. One report indicates classrooms in Mosul colleges have been transformed into dormitories for fighters. The obscurantists have also demolished or desecrated revered mosques, shrines and tombs in both Iraq and Syria. Fuelling such actions is a mixture of religious fanaticism, ignorance and a desire to show the world what the militants are capable of. The Unesco chief has described these incidents as “cultural cleansing” and called for an emergency meeting to discuss Iraq’s heritage. The threat is indeed considerable as hundreds of archaeological sites in Iraq now lie within IS-controlled territory. But whether it is protecting the people of Iraq and Syria or saving the heritage of these ancient civilisations, the key lies in permanently neutralising IS. And for that to happen, regional states and the international community need to support and coordinate efforts with the governments in Baghdad and Damascus against the extremists.

Published in Dawn March 2nd , 2015
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Time to go back to parliament

IN his trademark belligerent style, PTI chief Imran Khan reacted yesterday to his party’s failure to secure a deal with the PPP on the Senate elections to be held in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly on March 5 by accusing the PPP and JUI-F — and the PML-N for good measure — of corruption and indulging in horse-trading. This, a day after the PTI chief and PPP boss Asif Zardari held unprecedented talks over the telephone — that were implicitly hailed by the PTI itself — for sealing an unspecified deal with the PPP. Unhappily, the sharp shift between the mood and language on Sunday and that on Monday indicate that the PTI, while sometimes seemingly willing to do the sensible thing, is yet to learn how to deal with setbacks to its own plans and ambitions. While Mr Khan is all too willing to lash out at others, the simple fact of the matter is that much of the problem in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly lies within the PTI camp. Were the PTI’s own MPAs not willing to consider voting for Senate candidates of other parties against the direction of the PTI leadership, there would be no need for the frantic, eleventh-hour negotiations between the PTI and other political parties. Also dashed — hopefully only very temporarily — by Mr Khan’s outburst yesterday was the immediate hope that the PTI would end its boycott of the National Assembly and return to its rightful and legitimately earned place there.

It had appeared that the sensible voices within the PTI were on the verge of convincing Mr Khan that the time for ousting the government through street agitation had passed. They believed the party was better off building on its position inside parliament to mount a robust opposition to government policies the PTI is opposed to and also to press for the much-needed and long-promised electoral reforms. In boycotting the National Assembly for seven long months, the PTI has not only turned its back on the very voters who sent PTI representatives to parliament in May 2013 but has also done a disservice to the democratic project and the quest to build a stronger and more stable parliamentary system. Both the PTI and democracy itself have been hurt by the boycott and it is time that the party which has done so much to revitalise and reinvigorate the electorate go on to demonstrate that legitimate demands can be achieved inside parliament too and not just on the street.

There is also the possibility that a return to the National Assembly will bring to bear some pressure on the PML-N to deliver on its promise to debate and enact meaningful electoral reforms. For all the PTI’s missteps and faults, it has at least shown an inclination to do the right thing eventually. Surely, the PML-N — in power for the third time — can do the same.

Minorities’ dilemma

AMONGST the predicament of minorities in Pakistan is the fact that youngsters belonging to faiths other than Islam either have to study the religion of the majority, or learn about Islamic themes that are included in the textbooks of unrelated subjects. As some scholars have pointed out, forcibly teaching non-Muslim students Islam — either because of the lack of alternatives or through inducement — violates their constitutional rights. In this regard, it is welcome that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Textbook Board has begun developing ethics books for the province’s minority students. While ethics is being taught in other provinces, it is shocking that it took KP so long to offer an alternative to non-Muslim students. Even the ANP, which ruled the province before the PTI’s rise to power, did not rectify this anomaly. As reported in this paper, many non-Muslim students in KP are forced to study Islamiat due to the lack of ethics textbooks and instructors who could teach them the subject. This brings us to another major problem: while the province has done well to formulate an ethics textbook, who will teach the subject? As our report indicates there is a shortage of qualified ethics teachers in KP. This problem also exists in other provinces.

In order to create a more tolerant and inclusive society, it is essential that non-Muslim students are not forced to study the religion of the majority. With the addition of KP, ethics will now be taught nationwide, hence there needs to be a trained cadre of instructors in all provinces that can teach the subject to non-Muslim pupils. Moreover, minorities must be consulted so that their respective religious beliefs are taught to youngsters instead of ethics should they so choose. Then there is the issue of including Islamic topics in subjects as varied as general knowledge, social studies and English. Of course, this infusion of religious material across the academic spectrum is mostly the work of Ziaul Haq’s ‘Islamisation’ project. It must be realised that Islamiat is a compulsory subject in Pakistan, hence there is little reason to include religious teachings in other subjects. Doing so poses two major problems: it forces non-Muslim students to study Islam and where Muslim pupils are concerned, this approach can result in diluting the focus of the lesson. Both the issues of non-Muslim students and the inclusion of religious topics in unrelated subjects must be considered in future curriculum reform efforts.

Graffiti menace

POLICE in the capital city recently removed graffiti glorifying the self-styled Islamic State from the walls of buildings in an area where schools are located. Patrols will now be enhanced to ensure that the wall-chalking does not reappear in the vicinity. In fact, the menace of graffiti is very widespread and a big problem in Pakistani cities and a more energetic approach is required to tackle it. Political graffiti appears on the walls of historical buildings, while posters of electoral candidates are pasted on national monuments too. More insidiously, hate messages are scribbled on walls in large localities in Karachi, and towns across Punjab. The seeming impunity with which these messages are scribbled on the walls shows that they are not considered a big enough menace by law-enforcement or the local administration. Quite apart from desecrating national monuments and historic sites, hate messages along sectarian lines or glorifying groups involved in large-scale atrocities should be a special target for erasure. Yet thus far we have not witnessed any systematic effort to discourage those who insist on scribbling these messages in public places.

The police in Sector H-9 of Islamabad have done the right thing in promptly painting over the graffiti and enhancing patrols in the area to ensure that it does not recur. But much more needs to be done in towns across Punjab — and in Karachi where last year the Sindh Assembly passed a law against the defacement of public and private property, stipulating punishment for the offenders. The local authorities, including the police and city administration, must play a more vigilant role to erase graffiti promptly, and apprehend those responsible for putting up these messages. The political parties can lead the way by mounting a strong campaign internally to dissuade electoral hopefuls and other political players from using public walls and national monuments as display areas for their messages and slogans. Meanwhile, keeping hate off our walls will help keep it out of our minds.

Published in Dawn March 3rd , 2015
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Senate’s welcome move

JUST days before some 50-odd senators are to bow out at the completion of their terms the upper house on Monday passed a bill seeking to change laws about ‘honour’ killings and another about improvement in the legal clauses on custodial torture and custodial rape. The bills were moved by members belonging to the PPP, which is striving to stay relevant in the fast-changing political landscape by occasionally, even if sporadically, striking a forward-looking chord. The Senate unanimously passed the proposed changes, which have to be debated in the National Assembly before being sent for a presidential nod. If the bills are a sign of a common cause pursued above partisanship, it could have been even more uplifting if the initiative had come from the treasury. Clear commitment shown by the government members at this stage could have inspired greater hope about a smooth passage through the lower house where the PML-N has a majority. Even more importantly, it could have provided a bigger assurance that the new laws will be smoothly implemented.

Nevertheless, this is some kind of an achievement, given how divided the legislators have remained over these clauses, especially the most controversial Qanoon-i-Shahadat or the law of evidence introduced by the martial law regime of Gen Ziaul Haq in 1984. This can be taken as a sign that the country’s process towards political maturity continues despite the routine maligning of Pakistani politicians. Only these politicians have to frequently intervene and assert themselves in other areas in favour of progress and a just society. The Senate, with its continued multiparty composition, needs to build upon this momentum. Rather than these bills being remembered as the upper house’s farewell gift to some of its parting members this must mark the beginning of a new era of rigorous, dispassionate and fair review of laws. There is, there will always be, much that needs to be corrected. The case of Pakistan requires even greater urgency given that revisions have been delayed and denied here for so long under one pretext or another.

PSO results

ALMOST two months after it happened, we are finally beginning to get a credible picture of what really led to the petrol crisis in early January. The financial results just announced by PSO include data from the crucial second quarter ending Dec 31, 2014, when the crisis germinated before emerging in its full-blown form early this year. The data paints a startling picture. Profit after tax plunged by 73pc in the six months from June to December, compared to the 150pc growth that was recorded in the same period last year. The company says inventory losses of Rs2.7bn, compared to a gain of Rs6.4bn in the same period last year, explain some of this drop. The rest of the drop is explained by lower receipts of late payment surcharges from the power sector — Rs3bn in the first half compared to Rs11bn last year. The results appear to vindicate the line taken widely by the media and financial analysts during the crisis that the liquidity problems of PSO lay behind the problem.

The line taken by the government, and at least two inquiry commissions constituted by it, was that mismanagement led to the crisis. It is true that the oil supply chain suffered from crucial weaknesses, such as a weak stock position, but those issues are as structural as the circular debt. It is hard to discount the impact of the sharp deterioration in the financial position of the company as revealed in financial results, which hampered its ability to arrange fuel shipments. Further, many of the deteriorating financials are connected with the power sector, from margins on furnace oil to late payment surcharges from the power sector, and strengthen the argument that ultimately it was the circular debt and its impact on the company’s finances that led to the petrol crisis. It is sad that this picture is emerging after two separate inquiry reports produced by government-appointed commissions, neither of which gave sufficient prominence to the financial issues of the company and the circular debt, a few words to the effect notwithstanding.

The full results are to be released later, and they will help build a more detailed picture of what went wrong in early January. There might be a temptation for the new management of PSO to use the interval to package their results in a way to not contradict the government’s story, but this temptation should be resisted.

Polio narrative

THE challenges Pakistan is facing in its struggle to ensure that all children in the country are vaccinated against polio are well known, as is its lack of success in the endeavour. The single fact that Pakistan stands poised to compromise the herd immunity of the world population ought to have sparked a frenzy of effort. And yet, the number of cases continues to rise, with last year’s figures being the highest in nearly a decade and a half, and the violence against polio workers and the security teams with which they must travel showing no signs of abating. Meanwhile, mischief that ought to have been nipped in the bud has been allowed to grow so that now it has attained formidable proportions, ie the extremist right-wing propaganda initiated by Mullah Fazlullah in the north-eastern parts of the country, and then adopted by the Taliban, that the drops are harmful. With the passage of so many years, this narrative has taken hold among communities, in particular in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and some parts of Karachi, and spun out of the control of the centre and the provincial governments.

Parents or guardians of children refusing to let the OPV drops be administered has become a seemingly intractable problem. It is against this backdrop that the KP administration’s decision to arrest people who refuse to allow the drops to be administered must be seen. As the first day of the second round of the KP government’s Sehat Ka Insaaf programme got under way on Monday, some 470 people were arrested for this reason in Peshawar. Though the threat seems to be having some effect — people similarly arrested in Nowshera and Kohat last week were freed after they gave in — it is appalling that matters have been allowed to reach such a pass. The need for the state to retake control of the polio narrative could not be more urgent, and other avenues of inducement, such as linking the issuance or renewal of essential documents including national identity cards to proof of vaccination, need to be explored.

However, the most obvious avenue of all is for political and religious leaders across the country, but particularly KP, to become involved beyond what they have so far done — using the polio vaccination campaign as a cynical photo-op and making empty promises of continued involvement. Consider the case of Imran Khan, who leads the party in power in KP, and Maulana Samiul Haq, head of the Darul Uloom Haqqania. Both promised personal involvement in the campaign but then faded away to attend to matters that they considered had higher priority. The participation of leaders such as these, though, could make a pivotal difference. What needs to be recognised is that polio is no longer solely a health issue; it has been, unfortunately, politicised and as such, needs a sustained political campaign for its resolution.

Published in Dawn March 4th , 2015
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A provocative address

BENJAMIN Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of the US Congress on Tuesday is a prime example of how international diplomacy should not be conducted. It was a strange situation: the leader of a foreign nation was challenging the policies of the US president in America’s national legislature. This bizarre event clearly shows the power Israel yields over a large section of the US political establishment. Mr Netanyahu had a largely one-dimensional message: there should be no nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1. Not only was this political stunt — legislative elections are due shortly in Israel — a clumsy attempt to sabotage the nuclear negotiations, it was also blatant interference in America’s domestic affairs. Barack Obama’s dislike of the episode was illustrated by his total snub of the Israeli leader, while House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi described the speech as an “insult” to American intelligence. Tehran, understandably, termed the address “Iranophobic”. The speech was little more than scare-mongering, using such a distinguished platform to make sweeping statements about a “nuclear nightmare” should Iran develop the bomb.

Moreover, Mr Netanyahu has made misleading statements about the alleged Iranian bomb earlier, most notably before the UN. The address also illustrated a clear division within the US political establishment as over 50 Democrats boycotted the speech; this is a rare departure from the usual bipartisan support Tel Aviv gets in Washington. Yet despite the dissent Mr Netanyahu received several ovations from the representatives of the American people. While Benjamin Netanyahu’s compulsions may have been to show Israeli voters and Tel Aviv’s friends in Washington that he wants to appear tough on Iran, such theatrics must not affect the nuclear negotiations. Tehran has a right to pursue peaceful nuclear power while the prospect of more nuclear weapons in the Middle East would be an unwelcome addition to a volatile region. Hence diplomacy should be the only channel pursued to ensure Iran gets a fair deal and that the concerns of its neighbours and the West are sufficiently addressed.

Strange disappearance

THE prime accused in multiple murder cases as well as a key suspect in the Baldia Town factory fire case has disappeared under circumstances described as ‘mysterious’ by the Rangers. Rizwan Qureshi was arrested on five counts of murder and one count of possession of illicit weapons in June 2013, and interrogated by a Joint Interrogation Team a week later. He was indicted by a sessions court — where the trial was being conducted — in all six cases based on the recorded testimony of eyewitnesses as well as a confession he gave to the police, which has no weight before a court. By October 2014, he was granted bail in all cases due to delays in recording the testimony of key eyewitnesses before the court. Then in early February the JIT report was made public when it was placed before the Sindh High Court in a case totally unconnected with the six counts on which Qureshi was being tried in the sessions court.

The report’s contents regarding the Baldia Town factory fire sparked a fierce political controversy, even though they were based entirely on hearsay. When the sessions court hearing the original six cases summoned Qureshi for a hearing on Feb 25, 2015, he failed to appear and has since been missing. How could somebody accused of five counts of murder be granted bail? The clear answer is that the investigating authorities did a poor job of building a case for the court. For one, his confession was never recorded before a judicial magistrate, which would make it legally admissible as evidence in court and might have been enough to secure his conviction. Trying to convict someone accused of crimes as dangerous as the ones Qureshi was accused of on the basis of eyewitness testimony alone is very poor prosecution because eyewitnesses are easily intimidated.

Additionally, why was the JIT report not shared with police investigators or the prosecution in the trial under way in the sessions court, especially considering its recommendation that Qureshi “may be Challan [sic] in the cases in which he has disclosed his involvement” was signed by the SSP South, Karachi Police? It almost seems as if trying Qureshi was a lesser priority to using his disclosures before the JIT for creating a political firestorm. Given these weaknesses in our prosecution and investigative capacities, perhaps it is not all that ‘mysterious’ that the prime accused in such heinous crimes has ‘disappeared’.

More of the same

IT is perhaps a testament to the hopes and dreams of many in the region that an overnight stopover in Pakistan, squeezed between visits to Dhaka and Kabul, by a senior Indian bureaucrat can still generate so much interest. Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad may have been billed by the Indian government as part of a so-called Saarc yatra, but it was always going to be bilateral issues that dominated the agenda in Islamabad. The real question — given that few anticipated any kind of breakthrough on Tuesday — was what kind of tone the foreign secretaries would set in their interaction. Now, the answer is known: a cautious, bureaucratic tone meant to avoid controversies and which gave neither cause for much hope nor great sorrow. In the jargon of the times, Mr Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterpart, Aizaz Chaudhry, played up modest convergences and downplayed significant divergences.

On display, then, was an old, gentle game: India mentioned Mumbai, Pakistan referred to the Samjhota Express; Pakistan mentioned alleged Indian involvement in Balochistan and Fata, India pointed to alleged Pakistan-based anti-India militancy. Both sides brought up violence along the LoC and Working Boundary. As host, Pakistan mooted the softest of CBMs (people-to-people contact, religious tourism, media and sporting ties, etc) while, as the guest, India graciously promised to dwell on the suggestions. As is the norm, the more meaningful communications — getting down to brass tacks, as it were — would have taken place behind closed doors and in confidence. For the Pakistani side, the main interest was likely to try and determine how the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is planning to address the bilateral relationship in the immediate future. Is the approach to remain wrapped up in the broader Saarc context, a sign that Mr Modi is content to let ties remain frozen, or is the Saarc emphasis really to provide domestic political cover while Mr Modi engages Pakistan and seeks some genuine progress on the major issues?

For New Delhi, the main interest was likely to determine whether the military-dominated, but civilian-fronted Pakistani policy on India is willing to address its concerns about regional terrorism and India-centric militants tolerated by Pakistan. What is discussed behind closed doors though will eventually be reflected in the public positions. If the resumption of full-spectrum talks is the goal, then this hesitant dance dubbed as ‘talks for talks’ is well worth the effort. In truth, on some issues there is really little of substance left to negotiate — Sir Creek and Siachen in particular. And much depends on political will. So how the talks are structured may in fact determine what the outcomes are. Mr Modi has already shown his petulant side by cancelling foreign secretary-level talks last year and the state here has shown its intransigence over the Mumbai attacks-related trials. Political leadership is what’s needed, but will it materialise?

Published in Dawn March 5th , 2015
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Utter chaos

THERE are many examples of abject mismanagement and unexpected crises in the political history of this country. But few such episodes have been as thoroughly unnecessary and self-inflicted as the fiasco that was polling day for the Senate elections yesterday. It is less the number of seats that became the subject of controversy — certainly, only a minority of the 48 seats contested on Thursday. It was the entire voting process that was tainted by the actions of a few. As with every fiasco, there are culprits and this time it is the PML-N and, to a lesser extent, the PTI. Start with the PML-N. As the governing party, the PML-N is the chief custodian of the democratic project. In addition to being in the electoral fray, it was the responsibility of the PML-N to keep the process itself as transparent, efficient and free from controversy as possible. In that regard, the PML-N has been a stunning failure — adding to its growing list of ineptitudes and difficult-to-understand mistakes. In strictly procedural terms, ahead of the unruliness in Punjab and ugliness in KP, the failure to elect Fata senators is a wretched tale of an eleventh-hour intervention failing to address a problem that had been apparent from the very outset of this election process.

Presidential ordinances are an undesirable form of legislation to begin with, but can there even be a justification for a democratic government promulgating an ordinance in the middle of the night that changed the rules of an election to be held the following morning? Whatever the problem that the ordinance sought to address — legitimate or not — surely the late-night change to the rules was always going to stoke controversy. If that were not enough of a scandal, there was a broader PML-N failure in three provinces: the inability to anticipate some thoroughly obvious problems and the unwillingness to offer pre-emptory solutions. Nothing that happened in Balochistan, KP or Punjab was new or particularly challenging — but none of those problems could be dealt with without calm, organised and thoughtful political leadership.

Surely, in politically divided provinces such as Balochistan and KP and neglected houses such as the Punjab Assembly, MPAs were going to create trouble if left to their own, parochial devices. Disastrous as the PML-N leadership was — a last-ditch effort to pass a constitutional amendment actually underlined the political and managerial failures of the government — the PTI in KP played its role in compounding the problems. With a provincial leadership that appears to defy the central leadership more often than not and with PTI chief Imran Khan being his usual mercurial self, the PTI in KP appears to have become everything Mr Khan excoriates in status quo politics. Where are the principles, where is the discipline and where is the public interest in the PTI set-up in the province?

Madressah financing

WHAT does one make of a situation where a different answer is given to the same question, depending on who is asked and when? In a rolling series of responses given to the Senate since at least January, the Punjab police have been giving conflicting answers to a simple question: how many madressahs in the province are known to be receiving foreign funding? In late January, where other provinces presented a combined figure of 23 madressahs that received foreign funding, Punjab had said there were no such seminaries on its territory. This claim was met with scepticism, and the Senate committee summoned the Punjab IGP and asked him the same question. The IGP sent a representative in his place who reportedly told the committee that foreign funding was indeed being received, but came via informal channels, and details were therefore not known. He sought the assistance of the FIA and the State Bank in tracing it. The committee tasked the Punjab police with preparing a detailed report and scheduled another hearing. That hearing was held on Wednesday, and this time the Punjab IGP appeared in person, along with an official from Nacta, the counterterrorism authority. This time they told the committee that 147 seminaries in Punjab were receiving funds from abroad, but that “no actionable intelligence” existed on the matter, and therefore the police could do little more than keep the entities under watch.

Nacta made the startling observation that it was unaware of the exact number of madressahs operating in the country since the figures provided by different agencies and provincial governments did not tally. He had no concrete information on foreign funding. Given some follow-up, the provincial government has gone from “nil”, to “some” to 147 in just over a month. The fact that legislators have to follow up aggressively in order to get straight answers to such an important question shows the provincial government’s lack of interest in pursuing the matter. Funding of madressahs, especially those suspected of involvement in terrorist activities and those whose curriculum includes preaching hate against members of other sects and denominations, is a crucial part of fighting the menace of extremism and terrorism in Pakistan. If the law-enforcement agencies are evasive in generating straightforward answers to simple questions, and continuously plead their helplessness and ask for assistance from other government departments, it reveals a manifest lack of vigour in going to the roots of terrorism.

Misuse of ECL

OFFICIALDOM in Pakistan seems to have a penchant for mishandling sensitive issues. Take the treatment meted out to Baloch rights activist ‘Mama’ Abdul Qadeer at the Karachi airport on Wednesday. Before the activist, accompanied by two colleagues, could board a flight to the US to attend a seminar, the group was stopped by the Federal Investigation Agency and told their names were on the Exit Control List. Mama Qadeer says officials told him he was involved in “anti-Pakistan” activities, which is why he could not travel abroad. The campaigner was supposed to participate in a seminar in New York on rights violations in Sindh and Balochistan. The move clearly smacks of political victimisation. What is particularly disturbing is why the individuals had not been informed when their names had been placed on the ECL; this would have allowed them to challenge the move legally. This incident indicates the state is continuing to misuse the ECL. Instead of employing it as a tool to prevent the flight of violent and dangerous suspects or criminals, it seems the government is using the list as a way to punish critics and opponents by restricting their freedom to travel.

It should be recalled that Mama Qadeer had led a nearly 2,000km march that ended in Islamabad in 2014 to highlight the plight of missing persons in Balochistan. Accompanied by a small group of women and children, Mama Qadeer’s march was a poignant, painful reminder that in this country, it is taken for granted that the security apparatus detain people extra-judicially. His own son was found shot dead after going missing. The state should realise that instead of silencing critics or preventing them from raising their voice internationally, it must address the core issues that push people to speak up against injustice in the first place. This unsavoury incident also highlights the need to reform the process of placing names on the ECL. The procedure must made be more transparent and less prone to abuse.

Published in Dawn, March 6th, 2015
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Fond memories revived

THE horse and cattle show of Lahore is back. The occasion rekindles fond memories and, as is customary these days, spurs ready-made theories about the value of cultural spectacles as a means of painting a positive image of this nation in the eyes of the wider world. Reminiscences and international reputation aside, this is one mela like all others that the people here should be allowed to have regularly and without hindrance. The fair was discontinued about a decade ago because of the tense security situation. It had evolved from a modest livestock exhibition to a show that now needed to diversify further. This is not to say that some of the old features had lost their charm. The livestock competition did create plenty of excitement as did the light show in the evenings and various other offerings such as tent-pegging, dog shows and daredevil stunts.

It was all there yet somehow the grandness of the old that had encouraged Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to rechristen it the Awami Mela in the 1970s, in sync with popular projections of himself, had worn off with time. The foreign dignitaries who had once graced the show went missing as did some of the enthusiasm that had seen people, both from the upcoming industry and agriculture, to contribute to its expansion. To put it candidly, just as those after Bhutto found reason to distance themselves from the ‘awami’ description that the original horse and cattle event was given, the people, too, found other attractions to occupy themselves with. It will now take a few editions to re-establish the old link but this is a good beginning. The fair has to be fully revived. In fact, it has to be expanded upon. It is a cultural expression tied to tradition and evolution right at the grass roots. At the same time, it is, of course, a reminder of the true Pakistan in the face of all those prone to using violent methods to establish an alien order.

Float the rupee

HOW is the rupee continuing to hold its strength against the dollar at a time when currencies around the world are not? The dollar has risen to the highest level in a decade compared to its principal trade partners, and many other countries around the world are eagerly letting their currencies fall in comparison to avail themselves of the cheaper export prices this makes possible. The dollar’s recent strength does not come from any underlying economic dynamism. It comes from the prospect of rising interest rates. In response, central banks around the world are cutting rates, from India to Russia to the European Central Bank to many other emerging markets as well, in an effort to further drive down their own currencies and make their products competitive in world markets. This trend has accelerated throughout 2014, and has only been gaining momentum in the early months of 2015. Yet the Pakistani rupee clings stubbornly to its value of 102 to a dollar.

Some might see this as a sign of economic strength. But all it shows is that the monetary authorities in Pakistan are using their precious foreign exchange reserves, mostly consisting of borrowed money, to shore up the value of the rupee. Recent reports from the currency markets suggest that the authorities may be resorting to increasingly aggressive moves to keep the rupee steady around 102. Why would they do this? One simple answer is ego. For many decades now, the assumption has reigned in our policy thinking that a strong rupee is desirable because it makes imports cheaper. That may be so, if the consumption of imported goods was the only objective that our economic policy was supposed to serve. But in reality, it is worth asking what costs come with this stubborn insistence to support the rupee at higher levels. Exports suffer, as seen in our trade balance, and more sustainable sources of earning foreign exchange dwindle, making the economy more dependent on borrowed resources. Thus, the sale of automobiles and retail fuels are shooting up but exports are declining month after month.

Is this really a desirable state of affairs? It is worth reminding the monetary authorities in Pakistan, and there is some debate about who they really are these days, that the benefits of a strong rupee may not necessarily outweigh the costs. As the dollar continues its unnatural climb, perhaps it would be better to let the rupee find its own moorings.

Repair work for Senate

SURVEYING the wreckage that has become the 2015 Senate elections, this much is already clear: the upper house of parliament has a serious repair job ahead of it in terms of recovering its reputation and reinstating itself in the public imagination as a forum where serious, sober and informed debate is possible. To be sure, few — if any — candidates have been elected to the Senate solely on the basis of vote-buying and without the support of a political party with representation in one of the assemblies. But the perception of these elections has been fundamentally shaped by several other factors: the mismanagement of their parties and the electoral process by the PML-N and PTI; wild speculation in sections of the media; and a welter of allegations on election day itself, leading to unprecedented disruptions of the polling process. That is a stain no house should have and surely not the Senate, which in its composition and design is meant to be above bare-knuckled, winner-takes-all politics. Before the Senate can begin to recover its reputation though, there is the business of avoiding yet more damage. When the new members of the Senate will be sworn in next week and the house will convene to elect a chairman and deputy chairman, there is an obvious problem: the PPP and PML-N will have near-equal representation in the Senate.

So which party will get its senator elected as chairman? For the PPP, retaining the Senate chairmanship will act as a useful riposte to the growing criticism that it has been reduced to a regional party from interior Sindh. For the PML-N, control of the Senate will aid its legislative agenda in parliament and rebut the allegation that it is essentially a Punjab-only party. But with roughly one-fourth of the votes in the Senate each, if the PML-N and PPP do decide to contest the Senate chairmanship, then both sides will need to reach out to the other parties in the Senate — triggering another potentially damaging round of speculation and allegations of vote-buying and arm-twisting. There is also the issue of the PTI. It has yet to allow its members to return to the National Assembly and if its six senators also stay away from Senate proceedings, it will add to the perception of parliament being an incomplete forum. Beyond that perhaps what the Senate should look to focus on is ramping up its legislative and oversight agenda. The wealth of talent and professional expertise — and not plain wealth in monetary terms — in the Senate remains high with this new set of legislators.

There is no other legislative body in the country with specially reserved seats for technocrats and ulema and many of the parties send some of their most experienced and competent members to the upper house. Surely, the best response to scandal is to get down to business quickly.

Published in Dawn March 7th , 2015

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A thrilling win

PAKISTAN’S resounding 29-run victory over the mighty South Africans on Saturday have brought them very close to qualification for the World Cup quarterfinals, a situation that looked well beyond their grasp barely a week ago. Given their horrendous start to the World Cup last month, where they lost back to back games against India and the West Indies and limped to victory over the lowly ranked Zimbabwe, Misbah-ul-Haq’s embattled men had all but been written off by the experts. But the unpredictability tag has long been attached to the Pakistan team, and this was very much evident in its emphatic victory against the Proteas in Auckland. Needless to say, the victory has come as a major boost for the Greenshirts and millions of their supporters around the world who now believe in their team’s chances as a certain title contender. More importantly, the win has restored the players’ confidence in themselves to a large extent besides enabling the team to establish a winning combination which had eluded them in the earlier games.

The resilience of Sarfraz Ahmed, who was adjudged player of the match in his World Cup debut, and the lethal impact of the four-pronged pace attack have brought welcome relief to the erstwhile struggling national outfit and the perpetually under-fire team management. Sarfraz, unencumbered by any notion of restraint despite his unjust omission in previous games, stamped his class yet again as a wicketkeeper-batsman of exceptional talent and should now be made a permanent feature of the team. With three wins in the last three games, Pakistan is clearly on a roll. However, the competition is set to become more gruelling in the later stages and in order to maintain its winning act, the team must guard against any complacency. Hosts Australia and New Zealand, with their inordinate appetite for success, pose a real threat to the competing teams, and with Pakistan peaking at the right time, the World Cup looks destined for a thrilling finish.

Way to the grass roots

NOT for the first time has the Supreme Court said that it will have none of it. The dillydallying governments, the half-prepared Election Commission, the politicians not wanting to share power at the grass roots, have all been censured. The apex court on Friday ordered that all parts of the country must have local governments by September this year. This raises hope. Maybe the so-called democrats, as well as others who have contributed to the delay, have now run out of excuses. All kinds of reasons have been given for the denial of this basic right to the people, an essential follow-up to the much celebrated devolution of power blueprint provided by the 18th Amendment to the Constitution. Much criticism has come the way of the PPP and PML-N, the main forces behind the amendment. They have now been blocking the local governments as the ruling parties in Sindh and Punjab. In circumstances where politicians are as much under pressure and as willing to outsource jobs they should ideally be performing they could well be grilled over their inability to level the route on their own for a smooth and swift holding of the local government vote. That they have been disciplined by the judge’s hammer to tread the right path, albeit behind the clock, will, and perhaps should, expose the political leadership to some more flak.

The time lost cannot be regained. But under duress and lacking in grace as they might be, the set-ups will be doing their own reputations a favour if they were to now earnestly employ their resources and create an enabling environment for the polls. The ruling says that the cantonments must hold local elections on April 25 — the refusal to allow even a week’s postponement conveying the mood the court is in at the moment. As Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is asked to organise the election in May, the province and the cantonments can set an example for the two bigger units in the federation to follow. Maybe there are no other ways that Punjab and Sindh, the two most reluctant provinces, can delay the delivery of the local governments to the people beyond the Sept 20 deadline. But just in case there are more excuses, the pressure needs to be kept up to ensure that the court decision and people’s aspirations are acted upon in the name of the democracy that everyone these days is so keen to swear by.

PM’s visit to Saudi Arabia

THE prime minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia has sparked a mini-firestorm of speculation about the ‘real’ motives for the trip. Yet Nawaz Sharif is just one of many regional and international leaders invited to Riyadh over the past few days. The Turkish and Egyptian presidents were recently in the kingdom, while John Kerry also made a quick dash to Riyadh. It seems two main issues were commonly discussed during these visits: Iran and the self-styled Islamic State. There has been talk of forming a ‘Sunni bloc’ as Tehran has started to exercise greater influence across the region and a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 emerges on the horizon, which would pave the way for the Islamic Republic’s re-entry into the global financial system. Indeed in both Syria and Iraq, Iran is helping these governments push back against IS. This puts the Arab sheikhdoms in a tough spot: should they still try and contain Iran, or should they focus on defeating IS?

IS, on the other hand, is projecting itself as a champion of the ‘Sunni’ cause, putting up a fight against an expansionist, Shia Iran. Here, the difficulty of the Gulf sheikhdoms becomes apparent: if they take a position against IS they’ll be on the same side as Iran. If they support the Islamic State — overtly or covertly — it will effectively be suicidal. For while IS may come in handy to encircle Iran, it is quite clear the self-styled caliphate seeks to dismantle the current political architecture of the Middle East and remake the region, and indeed the entire Muslim world, in its image. That is why it is important for Sunni-majority states, especially the Gulf sheikhdoms, to firmly oppose IS, and despite their doctrinal and ideological differences with Iran, bury the hatchet and work with Tehran against IS. Moreover, if the Sunni states remain ambiguous about their anti-IS policy, Islamists the world over will gravitate towards the extremist group as it continues to play up its anti-Iran and anti-Shia credentials.

And where does Pakistan fit into this equation? It is indeed a difficult challenge for Islamabad to balance its ties with Riyadh and Tehran. But within this difficulty may be an opportunity. Firstly, Pakistan should not become a party in the Arab-Iran tussle. Iran is a neighbour and should not be estranged while decades of ties with Saudi Arabia must also not be severed. If anything, Pakistan is ideally placed to act as a bridge between the two — should it play its cards right. Coming back to IS, the Iranian action against the group must not be viewed through a sectarian lens, especially when Saudi Arabia and other countries have declared it a terrorist organisation. Ideally, collective action against IS is the best option; for this Iran and Saudi Arabia will need to set aside their differences and focus on the common enemy.

Published in Dawn March 8th , 2015
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Music to the ears

AS the two-day annual All Pakistan Music Conference filled the night sky with music from the lawns of the National Academy of the Performing Arts in Karachi recently, many had reason to reflect on the great classical musicians and vocalists Pakistan has produced over the decades. That these musical traditions have continued to be passed down through the generations testifies exemplary commitment, especially in the face of scant support by the state. At Friday’s event, as bansuri-playing brothers Abid Ali and Sajid Ali were introduced, it was pointed out that while the former had played with the likes of Mehdi Hasan and Noorjehan, his sibling is contributing to Coke Studio collaborations. Hidden in this compliment — Coke Studio has not only produced music to critical acclaim but has also proved commercially successful — is a reality that has seemingly escaped the attention of policymakers. Since the audience for classical music is small (and this is true for many parts of the world), artists receive state support; failing that, and driven by the need to earn, they perforce turn to other work. As a result, the true classical traditions become neglected and eventually die out.

This unfortunate process has been under way in Pakistan as well. And yet at no administrative level has much concern been evident. That it was once on the radar is manifest, given that institutions such as the Pakistan National Council of the Arts and the Arts Councils in various cities were set up with mandates that included supporting (financially and through the provision of performance platforms) artists whose work would attract low commercial attention, such as classical music. In practice, though, efforts made by these organisations have come across as piecemeal and sporadic. Avenues such as Pakistan Television and Radio Pakistan, too, are no longer as hospitable to classical musicians as they once were. Surely, Pakistan’s classical music traditions ought not to be allowed to die out simply because of inattention. Is it too much to ask policymakers to intervene?

Ludicrous suggestion

THE water regulator, Irsa, has suggested to the federal government that all development programmes being carried out in the country be “frozen for at least five years and funds may be diverted” for building mega dams. This is an absurd proposal, and has been floated in the past as well to little avail. The secretary water and power would be well advised to ignore it. Nobody doubts that Pakistan needs more water storage, especially in response to the challenges posed by climate change. But suggesting that these should be built by diverting the entire PSDP funds for five years to the water bureaucracy shows a lack of seriousness on the part of Irsa. First of all, before making such an enormous request, which if agreed to would have deep ramifications for the economy, it is worth asking what other steps the regulator has recommended to meet the challenges of climate change.

What suggestions do they have regarding flood-control measures and the improvement of flood-forecasting techniques? What work have they done to promote more efficient utilisation of water on farms? Instead of advancing silly proposals of this sort, Irsa’s time would be better spent doing some actual work on the challenges that climate change presents to Pakistan, and on what sort of strategies can be adopted to meet them. Demanding money for giant construction schemes is something a lot of government departments excel at, but the water bureaucracy has left everybody behind in asking for the entirety of the development funds in the country to be placed at their disposable. The proposal is not even a new one. Officials from the water bureaucracy have been making suggestions of this sort for many years now. It reflects an extreme version of the thinking that infects much of our approach to water issues: that more physical infrastructure and more money are the answer to Pakistan’s water issues.

More than physical infrastructure, the water bureaucracy needs to do a better job of managing the resources at its disposal first, and doing more to advance policy reforms to raise efficiency and awareness of best practices and the reduction of water theft. The poor track record of the water bureaucracy in building large hydro projects, as evidenced by the repeated delays and poor management of the Neelum Jhelum hydropower project, do not inspire confidence that they can be trusted anymore with large construction projects.

Return of IDPs

THE pledge by the Pakistan Army to begin the return, in a phased manner, of an estimated 150,000 families displaced by the military operations in the North Waziristan and Khyber agencies is a welcome sign that the leadership has some understanding of the need to fight a people-centric counter-insurgency. To avoid a familiar cycle of violence peaking and subsiding over a period of time in most insurgency-hit areas, the local population needs to be on the side of the state. That is possible, but only through the careful management of the needs of the local population. To begin with, the affected population needs to be equipped with enough resources to make resettlement as painless a process as possible. The military and the Fata administration have accumulated a fair amount of experience in this regard and it appears that a reasonable amount of resources have been allocated to the task. But setting aside a quantum of resources and aid is one thing; ensuring that the families that it is intended for receive it in a manner that is dignified and as trouble-free as possible in the circumstances is another.

Far too often, the good intentions and the well-designed plans fail at the point of contact with the affected population: the lowest tiers of the military are not trained to deal with population and those of the administrative set-up rarely think of themselves as public servants. What is then designed thoughtfully and with care in Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Islamabad tends to not work as well on the ground in Fata. This has been a recurring theme over the years with IDP management and returning them to their homes in Fata. Then, there is the sense that after the IDPs have been returned and several months have passed, they are essentially left to their own devices, with the military dominant in the area but focused on protecting territory and the civil administration all but displaced and non-functional.

That turn of events over the medium term is a failing on the part of the military. If Fata is ever to be normalised – and not simply returned to the pre-insurgency state of affairs – it has to have a sustainable, responsive system of government running the gamut of civil administration to the administration of justice to law and order. Worryingly, the military leadership appears unwilling or unready to permit meaningful Fata reforms. Finally, there is the long term: what is the military’s exit strategy from Fata? One hundred and seventy five thousand troops cannot remain there forever, but militancy in Fata is intrinsically connected to the situation across the Durand Line, management of the border and broader foreign and national-security policies. The military leadership pledges to wipe out terrorism, but a militarised anti-terror strategy combined with a shield still seemingly provided to old militant favourites does not seem to be the right way ahead.

Published in Dawn, March 9th, 2015
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Dated 3/10/2015

Government`s confusion


THE struggle over producing a list of banned outfits shows that the government is not clear about who should be on the list and who shouldn`t. Clarity on religious extremist groups means more than going on about `zero tolerance` policies and promising an end to the distinction between the `good` and `bad` Taliban. Clarity means being able to, at the very least, name all known religiously motivated militant organizations operating in the country, telling the public why many of them have been banned, and what action is being taken to shut down their operations and apprehend their activists and leaders. None of this appears to be happening. Putting up one list on a government website, only to take it down a few days later, clearly indicates confusion about the enemy to be pursued. The failure to create actionable guidelines for the identification of assets and funding lines connected with these organizations shows lack of, or worse still fear of, resolute action. The Senate has been struggling to get a simple list from the Punjab police of madrassahs known to have militant links; yet three hearings later it is no closer to obtaining one than it was at the start.
Yet we are told that 19,000 suspected militants have already been apprehended. This claim strains credulity. If it were true, we would be hearing far more noise than we are at the moment. The religious parties, after protesting vigorously that their seminaries should not be caught up in the dragnet, have gone quiet and those with a presence in politics have returned to business as usual, a clear enough sign that their apprehensions have been assuaged. How has this silence come about? Have they been given an assurance that their networks will not be touched in the course of fighting terror? And if so, will this assurance weaken the fight or strengthen it? Without clarity of mind, the ongoing operation will amount to little more than the myriad operations that have come before it. What exactly is stopping the government and the security agencies from defining a terrorist? What stops them from naming madrassahs that are known to be linked to militant organisations? What prevents them from pursuing the assets and funding lines that are known to function within the country`s formal financial system? The fact that answers are needed almost three months after the awful tragedy in Peshawar and 40 days after the blast in Shikarpur, begs an even more fundamental question: what will it take to realize that wars cannot be won without clarity of mind? If we have resolved to uproot terrorism in the country, surely the first step in this direction is to be clear on who is a terrorist and who isn`t. How can we claim to be fighting an enemy that we are afraid to even name?



Farmers` protest


THE rumblings from the countryside have reached the city.
Have the seeds of confrontation been sown? The local officials, with their act of blocking the way of protesting farmers, might have given the latter an additional excuse and maybe the impetus to build up an effective campaign. The farmers, who complain of having been hit hard by an `anti-agriculture` government, had been threatening to set off from various districts of Punjab for a rally in Islamabad. That was something the government was not ready to allow and the district administrations were asked to stop the protests early. There was violence in Vehari in southern Punjab as well as in Pakpattan, nearer to the power centre of Lahore. Batons were wielded and the protesters were tear-gassed for their crime of pressing for their basic right to hold a rally in the capital a luxury which it seems cannot be allowed to `just anyone`. Police arrested many protesters and registered cases against them. By Monday afternoon, the local officials in Sahiwal were still holding talks with the representatives of the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad. Whereas the reluctance of the administration to allow the farmers` passage had been made abundantly clear, by now apparently there was little relief that the local-level government functionaries could offer to them. The demands related to policies which required intervention from higher levels, both in the province and at the center.
The protesting farmers oppose the import of agricultural produce from India. They are asking for a revision in the official wheat price, and want a minimum price for potato as well as subsidy for rice growers. Add to this the call for the removal of GST on farm inputs and we have a clearer idea of just how deep and varied the grievances of the farmers are. This is not just about one issue or a few issues. This is a complaint against the general indifference towards, even willful neglect of, a Pakistan that exists away from the limelight, and which is sought to be kept at a distance from Islamabad. Just as political parties even those in the opposition and the media fail to lend a sympathetic enough ear to the farmers, the government, too, is bent on smothering the voices of protesters. But unfortunately for the government, as it applies force and erects hurdles, the protesting chants only get louder.



Diplomatic rigmarole


COUNTLESS Chinese VIPs, including the liberation icon Zhou En-lai, have visited Pakistan, but never before has a Chinese leader`s trip to this country fallen victim to such gaucherie as the one now surrounding President Xi Jinping`s. On Sunday, Islamabad for the first time officially denied that President Xi would be in Pakistan on March 23. The denial came from foreign policy adviser Sartaj Aziz. Without a fulltime foreign minister, the nation is spectacle to a bizarre phenomenon -it almost seems as if Pakistan has no leader or institution that knows how to conduct diplomacy.
Originally scheduled for August last, the visit was postponed because of the sit-ins by Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri close to security sensitive buildings. The end of the sit-ins could have paved the way for President Xi`s visit, but two developments clouded the authorities` vision: first, President Barack Obama was invited to be the guest at India`s Republic Day celebrations; second, the army announced that March 23 would be celebrated with the traditional armed forces` parade after a break of several years. Then somebody leaked a most childish feeler that the Chinese president would be the state`s guest at the Pakistan Day parade.
What message did those who leaked this bit of `information` wish to give to the public? That we have a readymade formula to counter the perceived Indo-US axis? Surely Pakistan should not concern itself with which world leader India invites to its celebrations.
Meanwhile, the Chinese, not wishing to embarrass Pakistan, did not deny categorically that their president would not visit on March 23. Instead, they gently indicated that Mr Xi intended to visit the country this year but gave no specific dates. No doubt, there should have been an emphatic denial, but this should have come from Pakistan`s Foreign Office right after the unverified report was circulated by the media. Unfortunately, by not issuing one then, our foreign policy managers merely added to the confusion. This does not bode well for our conduct of diplomacy.
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A debatable judgment


SALMAAN TASEER was murdered by an unrepentant Mumtaz Qadri in a deliberate, premeditated and ruthless manner for the vilest and most distorted of reasons. That makes Qadri a murderer who must be punished. The Islamabad High Court hearing Qadri`s appeal did both the legally and morally correct thing in upholding Qadri`s conviction on Monday. Where the court appears to have unnecessarily created confusion and caused uncertainty about his ultimate fate is in its decision to set aside his parallel conviction under the Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997. In a single paragraph dealing with the anti-terrorism conviction one paragraph among 47 that constitute the overall judgment the court found that none of the prosecution witnesses (barring one), and neither the investigating officer nor the prosecution evidence, suggested that Qadri`s act amounted to an attempt to create panic, intimidate and terrorise the public, or to create a sense of fear and insecurity among the public.

With due respect to the court, that is a very surprising and quite unsustainable finding.

Qadri`s killing of then governor of Punjab Salmaan Taseer is the very definition of terrorism. It was an undisguised political act meant to send an unambiguous message of fear and intimidation to the public. As the judgment itself notes, Qadri claimed that the murder of Taseer `is a lesson for all the apostates as finally they have to meet the same fate`. In assassinating the Punjab governor, Mumtaz Qadri was not simply killing an individual, he was sending a message to state and society that only the particular version of religion and Pakistan that he and his supporters are in favour of ought to be the one implemented here and anyone who deviates from that distorted, horrifying vision is deserving of death. If that is not religiously inspired terrorism, then what is? Surely, the scores of individuals who have been celebrating Qadri`s act and are now welcoming the decision to strike down the terrorism conviction because it will allow them to openly and publicly venerate him and the hateful ideas he stands for only emphasise that the act of murder was not just against an individual, but was meant to distort society itself.

There is a further problem here. If Qadri`s murderous act in the name of religion is not terrorism, then what about killings on sectarian grounds and violence targeting non-Muslims? The court appears to have unnecessarily embarked on a slippery slope with all manner of unpredictable consequences. Has, for example, the court unwittingly provided a `Qadri defence` to religiously inspired terrorists who have so blighted this country in recent decades? Finally, in unnecessarily tampering with the original judgment in such a high-profile case, has the court not reinforced the perception that the criminal justice system favours the accused over the victims? The original conviction should have been allowed to stand in its entirety.



Solar takes off


A SOLAR-POWERED aircraft took off from Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for a voyage around the world that will take five months to complete. About a year ago, that goal seemed very distant. The speed with which developments in solar energy are progressing is truly breathtaking, and we should take heed of the enormity of the promise that is gradually opening up before us. We are living on the cusp of a revolution that promises to transform our lives much like the spread of cellular communications did. Prices of solar panels are dropping steeply, by almost 70pc since 2011, and the cost of a unit of solar energy has fallen from 21 cents in that year to 11 cents today. At six cents, the technology becomes viable for largescale commercial adoption because its costs will be competitive with those of coal. That goal is less than five years away.

In many ways, the move towards alternative sources of energy is already under way in Pakistan. Across the mountainous north, for instance, micro-hydel turbines that generate electricity from streams are being adopted at an accelerating pace, and many inaccessible villages are already lit up at night with free electricity in the summers. A few enterprising entrepreneurs around the country are already setting up solar operations, selling residential equipment that can charge a UPS capable of running an entire house. The International Finance Corporation is already offering enterprise loans for manufacturing outfits in Pakistan that wish to run their operations entirely on solar energy. In villages across the country, solar panels are becoming an increasingly common sight.

There may still be a long way to go, but the distance can close fast once the right price point is crossed. All the government needs to do is to get out of the way. An upfront tariff for solar energy is a good beginning, but the real potential for this innovation will be in household use, what is called point-of-consumption use within the industry. For that, incentives for import and local manufacture of solar panels will play a big role, as well as net metering, a technology that enables households to sell surplus electricity generated in their homes back into the national grid. The heroic flight of Solar Impulse demonstrates that no heights are too high and no distance too far when imagination is coupled with the power of technology.



Unusual IMF visit


In a slightly unusual move, a three-member IMF team led by the mission chief for Pakistan has visited the country just days before the documents from the sixth review are to be circulated to the Fund`s executive board for approval. Once approved, it will pave the way for release of the seventh tranche of the $6.7bn loan that Pakistan took in 2013. The visit is unusual because normally there is no reason for the mission chief to visit the country after the review is completed, and the wide range of meetings that he is holding show that this is not a simple courtesy call. What is not unusual though is the list of its `achievements` drawn up by the finance ministry, presented to the Fund team and detailed in a press release issued after the visit. Foreign exchange reserves have crossed $16bn, the press release says, without mentioning that most of this is borrowed money. All structural benchmarks have been met, it adds, without casting further light on the fate of legislation to grant increased autonomy to the State Bank. New power projects will add 4,000MW to the national grid, it boasts, without saying anything about the circular debt.

The press release may do its best to put a happy spin on the visit, but the metrics of success being used by the finance minister are problematic and almost each one could easily be deflated by a couple of astute questions. Were any of these questions asked by the Fund? We can only conjecture, but a good guess would be `yes`.

In all likelihood, Pakistan`s request for the seventh tranche will be approved by the board when it meets at the end of the month, although much depends on when the documents are circulated to the board. But it would be better if the finance minister could give an indication or two once in a while that he does not entirely believe the public relations line taken by his ministry.
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