IN war, the moral is to the physical as three to one, said Napoleon, and the Libyan rebels certainly demonstrated the truth of that. Qadhafi had more soldiers, they were better trained and much better armed, and they did not lack courage. But the rebels firmly believed that they were bound to win.

However, Napoleon also said that God is on the side with the best artillery, and the rebels had nothing bigger than light anti-aircraft guns. Their real artillery was the Nato air forces that conducted a five-month bombing campaign on their behalf.

Even though there are technically no foreign ‘boots on the ground’ in Libya, this heavy reliance on foreign military support makes the rebels forces beholden to the West in the eyes of some Libyans and many other Arabs. Consider the tasks that the rebels now face. First, their leaders must prevent their victorious troops from taking revenge on the regime’s erstwhile supporters.

Then they must choose some thousands of today’s ragtag fighters to serve as a conventional army and disband the rest of the militia forces that sprang up to fight Qadhafi’s army. A lot of people who fought for the revolution are going to feel cheated, and they still have guns.

The revolutionaries must then find a way of dealing with Qadhafi (if and when they catch him) that does not deepen the already grave divisions in Libyan society. Many people from Qadhafi’s tribe and its allies fought for the regime, and half the families in the country include someone who worked for Qadhafi’s government at some point during his 43-year rule.

Then they have to write a constitution, hold a free election, and form a legitimate government to which the National Transitional Council (NTC) will hand over all its powers. They also have to restart the economy and get money into people’s hands as quickly as possible. Many Libyans have not been paid for four months now.

That task will be a lot easier if the country’s foreign currency reserves, much of which are held abroad in accounts that were frozen by the United Nations during the conflict in order to cut off Qadhafi’s cash flow, are now released rapidly to the new Libyan government.

Many people in the rebel leadership understand that the country’s strong tribal loyalties are divisive, but keeping them out of democratic politics is not going to be easy. It’s especially hard because there are no powerful civic organisations (professional associations, trade unions, etc.) to serve as an alternate focus for political activity.

By Gwynne Dyer

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