Eid and the laws of economics

November 7th, 2011

For Muslims, Zilhajj is important because its is in this month that Hajj is performed, the khutba of Arafat is read out and Eidul Azha is observed, as it will be today in the country, by sacrificing animals in memory of Prophet (Ibrahim) Abraham’s willingness to sacrifice his son on the orders of Allah. On the other hand, the other Eid, Eidul Fitr, happens in the month of Shawwal after the holy month of Ramazan, during which Muslims fast.

In Pakistan, the Eid after Hajj is not marked by any quarrel over the sighting of the moon because of the consensual ritual of Hajj which takes place in Saudi Arabia. But before Eidul Fitr, our clerics get into arguments with each other over the sighting of the moon and we have Eid on different days in the country and elsewhere in the Muslim world. However, what they have in common is that both Eids are increasingly becoming subject to economics.

There are fallacies to be removed. We should not believe that economics will suspend its fundamental laws in deference to religious feeling. Why do we want the law of supply and demand suspended when suddenly our consumption goes up either in quantity or quality? If people start reading newspaper archives from 1947 onwards, they would find many an editorial indulging in self-flagellation over price hikes during Ramazan and during the period when sacrificial animals are to be bought.

There is an uncontrolled emotion that says that somehow during these two occasions the supplier should ignore economics and make a sacrifice of his trade in order to benefit the faithful masses. There are reports of profiteering during the fasting month. What sellers should do is sacrifice their margin of profit during Ramazan, moved by Muslims forgoing food in the name of Allah.

What happens, in fact, is economics. In the fasting season, even the poor try to make the keeping and breaking of the fast a special occasion by arranging food that is not their routine. This means additional consumption, which translates into increased demand. This, following a basic law of economics, leads to a rise in the prices. The month passes amid accusations of impiety and lack of mercy.

The Eid of sacrifice is more overtly subject to economics. The animals that are to be bought for sacrifice are grown in the countryside. They are brought to the big cities where people have the earnings commensurate with the price tags on these animals as opposed to rural areas where the cash economy is weak. What the sacrificial animals do is transfer some of the wealth created in the cities to the countryside. The demand is inelastic in many households, where sacrifice is taken to be compulsory, regardless of income. Each year, the sacrificial animals are more expensive in relation to the earnings of the consumer.

This year, there was a fall in the number of animals bought for sacrifice. The reason should be obvious: prices were too high. The numbers have been falling for some years now and this is only to be expected, given the rising prices of sacrificial animals. Why is the supplier not flexible in the face of this demand curtailment? He has options. One option is to go from city to city to take advantage of relative prosperity. The other option is to take the animals across the national frontier and exploit the neighbouring state’s fondness for meat. The butcher shop is the third option.

The media has created the yearly stereotype of national moaning over high prices in relation to both Eids, as if these special occasions were times for self-rebuke. This is not right. There is economics working in all transactions and there is no reason that this process be suspended on Eid. And if there is rising poverty in the country because of low growth and policies that seem to reward those who are already quite well-off, these laws are bound to become more highlighted. Somebody makes a little more money during this period and, in most cases, he is a not-so-rich man trying to make an extra buck.

Barbaric business

November 7th, 2011

As would perhaps be expected in a society so torn apart by violence, cruelty is spreading rapidly to our children — and to the school playground. The horrendous incident reported from a government school near Faisalabad, in which a seventh grader was beaten to death by a class fellow and a teacher, raises bullying to levels rarely seen before. We can only imagine how the parents of the unfortunate child, Muhammad Ahsan, who died so young and essentially for no reason at all, are coping with the grief.

According to the shocking report in this newspaper, young Ahsan had been bullied repeatedly by a class-fellow, who was assisted by his uncle, a physical training instructor at the school. The victim’s father states that Muhammad Rizwan had been jealous of Ahsan — a capable student — and had persuaded his uncle to assist him in what amounted to ceaseless tormenting of Ahsan. This time round, things went too far; the child died as a result of the kicks, punches and blows he received to various parts of the body — many of them allegedly from a strong adult. It seems no one at the school intervened or attempted to stop what was happening.

We have seen deaths occur at other schools, in some cases as a result of physical punishment meted out to small children. This incident illustrates too the dehumanizing of society, and how ordinary people appear to have been driven to an increasingly frenzied state in which empathy and respect for life seems to have vanished. The fact that this tendency is passing on to the next generation is even more frightening. We can only wonder what our future will be as such trends grow. An FIR has been registered but that means very little in the context of the terrible tragedy that has taken place. Even if punishment is meted out, it will not change the fact that a young boy was mercilessly killed, nor will it change the nature of a society where such cruelty has become possible.

Violence against Hindus

November 10th, 2011

While the rest of the country was feasting, three Hindu men were shot dead in cold blood in Shikarpur district on Eid day. The men who were killed were pillars of their community — a doctor and two businessmen. The unfortunate fact is that crimes against members of minority communities are often not investigated. The motivation for this crime seems pretty clear and so, if the police has the will, it should make arrests and convictions. The Hindu community had been a target in the area ever since three Hindu men were accused of sexually assaulting a Muslim girl, and it was only a matter of time before the tension spilled over into violence. Sadly, when a crime is committed by a minority against someone in the majority community, it usually leads to collective punishment. It goes without saying that this should not be allowed to stand.

Such murders will continue to occur and go unpunished as long as there is persecution of the Hindu community at the official level. A recent study by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom found that hatred for Hindus is instilled in official Pakistani textbooks. The study said that “Hindus are repeatedly described as extremists and eternal enemies of Islam whose culture and society is based on injustice and cruelty.” From a young age, Pakistanis are taught that being Hindu equates to being Indian, while the cultural and economic role played by the community in Pakistan is ignored.

Repression against the Hindu community is especially acute in Sindh. In recent years, young Hindu girls have been kidnapped and forced into marriage after being unwillingly converted to Islam. Local clerics claim that the girls willingly converted and so no crime was committed. In fact, they welcome the supposed ‘conversions’ for bringing more people to the Muslim fold. In Balochistan, too, where Hindus have been part of the community for centuries, they are now being forced to flee out of fear for their lives. All of this is taking place with officials turning a blind eye, even if they are not actually sanctioning it. The hope would be that the murders on Eid would be the last straw. Unfortunately, the history of violence against Hindus would make that diagnosis far too optimistic.

Killing words

November 10th, 2011

There exists a new determination in our country to silence the written word; the country has already been declared the world’s most dangerous country for journalists by the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists. The toll for this year has risen further — to an alarming seven deaths. Javed Naseer Rind, whose bullet-ridden body was found in Khuzdar, Balochistan, weeks after he was kidnapped from Hub, his hometown, becomes the latest journalist to die a violent death. Clearly, those behind these killings fear the tremendous power of the pen, and the way in which it can be used to shape opinions. They do not wish to allow this moulding of minds to continue, and for the truth to emerge.

Rind wrote for the Urdu-language Daily Tawar, a newspaper that opposes the military’s role in Balochistan, and takes a pro-nationalist stand. This fact makes the ruthless killing of the newsman even more ominous. In the ugly cobweb that hangs over our country, with the spider that lives in its midst threatening to devour all that is good within it, this latest victim is tied in with two strands: he died, it would appear, both as a Baloch nationalist and as a journalist not afraid to turn his thoughts and his findings about events in his home province into sentences and phrases that could reach millions.

The growing determination to stop the dissemination of information is one of the worst tragedies a nation can experience. Rind, and others before him, died because they dared to delve into dangerous territory; to put out in the open what few have done before. Their efforts prevent us from vanishing behind a veil of silence, which would paralyse our minds, our ability to reason and think. This is what specific elements want. But they must be prevented. The state must protect free expression. But civil society groups must also act and take up the cause of these persons, who, like Rind, have died simply for writing what they believe.

Mishandling the gas tax

November 10th, 2011

The government seems to have gotten into the habit of doing the right thing with the wrong methods — the tax on gas consumption makes good policy sense: gas prices in Pakistan are artificially low and the government needs to raise revenue to improve the infrastructure and raise gas production. But where it went wrong is the stealth manner in which it is trying to impose this tax.

For starters, the tax was proposed not in the cabinet but the Senate finance committee. This represents a lack of trust by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh in their own cabinet colleagues, a worrying prospect. Also, it was introduced in the Senate and not the National Assembly, which is where, constitutionally speaking, all bills related to money matters must originate.

The government may eventually correct its blundering approach, but by then the damage will already have been done. Opposition politicians and the media will smell a rat, even if there isn’t one. And once more, the conversation will turn to pointless name-calling rather than a substantive discussion of policy.

There is, however, one criticism we have of this policy and that is the highly inequitable manner in which the burden of the tax will be spread. Owners of vehicles that run on compressed natural gas will see their fuel prices increase by between 25 and 79 per cent, depending on where they live. The regional variation may make sense, but the government would do well to explain its reasons for this.

The more disturbing variation is the fact that industrial consumers — by definition the richest segment of our society — will see only a 3 per cent increase in their gas bills. There is no justification to jack up prices by over a quarter for most of the middle class and then only have one tenth of that increase for the industrialists. The burden must be shared more equitably.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Religious bias of textbooks

November 11th, 2011

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom has researched Pakistani school textbooks to discover that there is religious bias in them denigrating the minority communities of the country. After poring through more than 100 textbooks from grades 1 to 10 across all four provinces; visiting 37 public schools and interviewing 277 students and teachers; visiting 19 madrassas and interviewing 226 students and teachers, the commission members have come to the conclusion that “teaching discrimination increases the likelihood that violent religious extremism in Pakistan will continue to grow”.

It is admitted by all Pakistanis that their society is steeped in extremist passions, some of them excited by unjust legislations like the blasphemy laws. Entire communities, such as the lawyers at the lower and high courts, have begun to take direct action on the streets to implement their extremist agenda, to say nothing of the Taliban who burn schools in fulfilment of their own vision of the perfect Islamic state. As a shocking demonstration of this trend, most people in Pakistan think that Pakistan is not following sharia, agreeing with the madrassa network that the constitutional amendment that set up the Federal Shariat Court is not sharia at all.

Textbooks have always been biased. Dislike of Christians is found in religious textbooks where Islam is described in opposition to Judaism and Christianity as creeds that rejected the pure message of Islam. The Hindus of Pakistan get the double whammy. History in our textbooks, which begins with the advent of the Arab warriors in Sindh against local Hindu rulers, and ends with the Pakistan Movement as a refusal of the Muslims of India to live together with “an unjust and hostile” Hindu community, always shows them in a bad light.

According to the commission’s report, “Hindus are repeatedly described as extremists and eternal enemies of Islam whose culture and society is based on injustice and cruelty, while Islam delivers a message of peace and brotherhood, concepts portrayed as alien to the Hindu”. This kind of bias should be excised, but the evil is constantly confirmed by inexpert analyses of contemporary India as a Hindu-majority neighbour that is against the very existence of Pakistan. Any dramatisation of events in Indian-administered Kashmir on TV will also attempt an ideological definition of Hinduism as an evil religion. More ominously, every time the home-grown Taliban kill innocent Pakistanis, police chiefs appear on TV to say that India — in tandem with Israel and the US — has done the deed. After the Babri Mosque incident in India, Hindu temples were burnt in Pakistan.

These facts go beyond the textbook to target communities against whom the school is not supposed to teach. Hindus in Sindh are becoming victims of inhuman treatment as religiously intense organisations become strong in the rural areas of the province. The Christians of Punjab are also being collectively punished on trumped up charges of blasphemy and desecration of the Holy Quran. The textbooks reflect this mindset. The report by the US commission quotes from a Grade 4 book in Punjab: “Anti-Islamic forces are always trying to finish the Islamic domination of the world. This can cause danger for the very existence of Islam. Today, the defence of Pakistan and Islam is very much in need’. A biased teacher may report Christian pupils for blasphemy, as has happened in the past, knowing full well that it takes up to nine years to get off the hook for a blasphemy accusation, given the virulently prejudiced lawyers’ community.

Pakistan will reject the US commission’s report as per a routine that has given our officials a lot of practice in hiding the truth. Things are actually much worse in a country where TV programmes show youths voting in favour of extremist passions under the rubric of ‘ghairat’ and politicians hope to garner votes by favouring the Taliban and their worldview while rejecting any action against religious terrorism by saying ‘it is not Pakistan’s war’. Some years ago, a professor in Islamabad revealed the bias of prescribed textbooks. Today, society has far surpassed the textbook and lives a life of extremism and hatred of minority communities.

Setting the tone

November 11th, 2011

Perhaps the mood was set by the setting; perhaps it was established by the tone of statements and discussions held over the past few months — most notably since March this year, when the prime ministers of Pakistan and India met at a cricket match. But certainly, the handshake between Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and his counterpart Manmohan Singh at the picturesque setting of Addu City on an atoll in the southern Maldives was a pleasant one. There appeared to be genuine warmth in the gesture and the discussion that took place between the two heads of government on the sidelines of the 17th Saarc regional conference appears to have gone well too. Even though no significant decisions with far-reaching effect were reached, the agreement to move ahead along the road to greater friendship is, in itself, an immensely important one.

This is especially relevant given the history between the two countries. Since the events of November 2008 in Mumbai, relations have been strained. It is only now that some semblance of normalcy is returning, the terse words of the past beginning to disappear from speeches. The decision by the Pakistan cabinet to grant India Most Favoured Nation status marked a step in this direction. And Gilani and Singh have indicated they both intend to continue to walk along the same road, stride in stride, reaching a goal of greater harmony and better understanding.

This is crucial to peace in the region and to an end to the militancy which remains, for now, one of the biggest burdens we bear on our shoulders. Militancy cannot end until there is dialogue with India and eventually some effort to resolve the Kashmir question. This, of course, will take time, but closer relations can only help the people of both countries. We must therefore be grateful that the sea breeze in the Maldives has blown in such good news with the leaders of both nations making it quite clear they wish to make a new beginning and allow the past to drift away as tides take a turn.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Renewed Promise of SAARC

November 12th, 2011

When India and Pakistan talk peace at Saarc, the region begins to smile with expectations of better days to come. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani met with his counterpart Dr Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the 17th Saarc summit in Maldives on November 10, and said things about relations with India that the opposition in Pakistan has pretended not to like; the BJP reacted the same way to Dr Singh’s description of Gilani as ‘a man of peace’.

Dr Singh was positive and pledged resolution of all outstanding issues. Gilani touched all the expected bases when he said: “We have discussed all core issues including Kashmir. We hope the next round will be more constructive, more positive and will open a new chapter in the history of both the countries”. The atmospherics were good because Pakistan had just awarded India Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status while India had endorsed Pakistan’s non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council, at the same time supporting Pakistan’s concessional trade with the European Union at the WTO.

The world appreciates progress in Pakistan-India relations while the oppositions in both countries find fault with it, backed by hostile TV anchors on both sides. The MFN status has been discussed on Pakistani channels — barring the few big ones — as if the PPP-led government has betrayed the nation. On the Indian side, politicians focused on Pakistan’s non-state actors carrying out terrorist activities in India and accused the ruling party of betraying the Indian people by letting Pakistan off the hook.

The media in Pakistan had low-quality discussions when politicians and some anchorpersons were allowed more airing than they deserved. A commentator on state-owned television actually said that granting MFN status was more important than India’s support at the EU and the UN, forgetting that by delaying this issue, Pakistan had seriously damaged itself in bilateral trade with India, languishing at around $1.5 billion on the basis of 2,000 items.

Some Pakistani anchors saw sinister conspiracies woven by the US behind Pakistan’s grant of transit rights to India’s trade with Afghanistan. Others simply did not know that free trade allowed negative lists for protection of industries when trade is plied between unequal partners. The transit route is actually at the root of the Pakistan-India breakthrough, which will free Saarc of the shackles of this bilateral vendetta. The old knee-jerk formula was repeated ad nauseam: first resolve the disputes — which actually means that India give up Kashmir and yield to Pakistan’s position on Siachen, Wullar Barrage and Sir Creek, etc.

On the Indian side, the more professional opinion was positive, telling India that the responsibility of moving Saarc forward was entirely India’s and that India would console the trading world’s opinion effectively if it took action to remove its non-tariff barriers. An economically successful state set in the middle of South Asia — with 70 per cent of South Asia’s territory, four-fifths of its GDP and three-fourths of its population — was advised by sensible Indian publicists to grasp the moment of thaw by the forelock.

The world has recognised two ways of achieving regional peace and progress. Either resolve the disputes first to facilitate trade, or front-load trade to allow consequent normalisation to resolve the disputes. It is shocking that most retired Pakistani diplomats, including an ex-foreign minister, kept focusing on the first option by expressing doubt about India’s intent to resolve disputes. They should have acknowledged that the first approach of front-loading disputes had not paid off and had retarded the progress of Saarc. For most TV anchors spreading gloom, the default position in South Asia is war which cannot be disturbed.

First of all, if Saarc is late in blooming, one must see it in perspective. It always takes long. And it takes fruitless conflict in the shape of wars to persuade the states to shift to trade. Saarc, founded in 1985, may still be doing better than Asean, which was set up in 1967 and plans to announce a ‘common market’ in 2015. South Asia has to move to its pledged Free Trade Area (Safta) to realise its potential of peace and prosperity.

Back to Commissioners

November 12th, 2011

Sindh has reverted back to the situation which existed prior to 1979, with the formal notification issued on November 10 of the revival of the commissionerate system. Sensibly, especially given that the decision was opposed by the MQM, which wished to keep intact the Sindh Local Government Ordinance of 2001 with elected nazims, the PPP held detailed consultations with its allies before the notification went out — persuading the MQM to drop its objections, at least for now. This is in itself no mean feat given that the commissionerate move had been pushed through at a rather fiery PPP meeting some weeks back, with supporters of Dr Zulfikar Mirza most vocally pressing for the revival. So, we have for the moment at least a general sense of accord on the system’s restoration. Karachi has once more been divided into five districts, and the new administrative setup is bound to be very closely watched by the people of the city given that the quality of civic services provided to them leaves much to be desired. This is all the more true given the degree of chaos Karachi has faced in recent times, ranging from law and order issues to the more mundane task of managing a civic infrastructure, which in some parts of the city in particular appears to be breaking down all together.

For the citizens who suffer the many consequences of this, what matters is the quality of governance and the way in which things are run than the actual framework of the system itself. While devolution is in principle a good idea, it must also work on the ground. This matters more than whether the persons running it are called nazims or commissioners. The only way to ensure better administration is to make accountability a part of the process and this could be done by involving the provincial legislature so that the bureaucrats now running the city can be held answerable to the people through their elected representatives. What is most essential is that things that have remained at a standstill for far too long somehow be made to run; the rails may be creaky at first, but they need to be oiled so that people’s lives can improve through efficient and reliable provision of civic services.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Pakistan-Afghanistan posturings

November 13th, 2011

After good atmospherics with India at the Saarc summit in the Maldives, Pakistan’s prime minister has had to face discord during his meeting with the Afghan president on the sidelines. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani brought up the matter of the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani in a plaintive mode, regretting “the blame game initiated by Afghanistan following the assassination”. This was perhaps the wrong expression to use because it made President Hamid Karzai shoot back that Afghanistan “would not move forward until Islamabad fully cooperates in the murder probe”.

The Afghans — and several other foreign powers — think that Pakistani intelligence was behind the killing of former Afghan president Rabbani and allege that the suicide bomber was a Pakistani citizen linked with the so-called Quetta Shura. After this exchange, both sides took an hour holding each other responsible for the current impasse in the relationship. Pakistan said that the Quetta Shura does not exist, for which unfortunately there are few takers in foreign capitals. Pakistan also denies the existence of the Haqqani network, but the world — again — believes otherwise, thinking that the Afghan warlord linked to al Qaeda is based in North Waziristan.

President Karzai is increasingly appearing two-faced, saying kind things like Pakistan is Afghanistan’s “twin brother” while writhing with anger inside. This is the best posture to take for the leader of a weak state with hardly any writ of his own at home. As for Pakistan, it is difficult to deny that it has, by and large, thought of Afghanistan as a next-door weakling dependent on its transit trade through Pakistan for economic survival. There was a time when Islamabad could even ‘punish’ Kabul for such disobedience but that is not possible these days because of the presence of US and Nato troops in Afghanistan. President Karzai therefore could afford to face up to the Pakistan prime minister to tell him that he, to put it mildly, was not being very truthful.

Pakistan itself is a weak state known and believed by most to be ruled indirectly by its military. Even if there is an elected government, most major decisions relating to foreign policy and even domestic matters are decided by the military, such is public perception. There are other weaknesses similar to those suffered by Afghanistan. Pakistan is without a writ of the state in many parts of its territory. It has ‘foreigners’ ensconced in parts of its territory who are determined to overthrow the system in Pakistan and replace it with a rigid theocracy and its security structure is contaminated by the ideology of foreign terrorists. Afghanistan seems to be heading towards another paradigm of dealing with Pakistan. And President Karzai simply presages the lineaments of it: and this is that Afghanistan will now rely on regional and international actors to prevent Pakistan from bringing about changes inside Afghanistan. Kabul would want to do this, presumably because it wishes to avoid what is happening in Pakistan: political instability accompanied by the killing of its leaders, which many Pakistanis think is being done by the very terrorists that it pretends to fight. Weak states are required to develop flexibility of response, and President Karzai is now giving evidence of using it selectively with Pakistan. The reason is the weakening of Pakistan’s position vis-à-vis Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover in 1996 when it demonstrated to the world that its interference in Afghanistan can threaten world peace.

But a recent change of policy by Pakistan vis-à-vis India promises to bring Islamabad back to a credible position of influence and strength. It has unblocked the process of normalisation with India by awarding it the much delayed — and much criticised, internationally — Most Favoured Nation status, and has additionally given it rights to send its exports to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Pakistani territory. This will enable it to also improve its ties with the offended US and EU community and improve its traction on Kabul. Till the time this new policy takes hold, Islamabad should tread carefully on the basis of a foreign policy not made by the elected government.

SAARC’s 20-point agenda

November 13th, 2011

Trying to critique the closing agenda or agreement of a summit is a thankless task. Any points of disagreement that may exist are papered over, vague promises of future action are made and then everyone goes home feeling very satisfied with themselves. The recently-concluded Saarc summit in the Maldives followed that model to a tee. The 20-point closing agenda adopted by member countries is impossible to disagree with, filled as it as with high-sounding rhetoric and plans to strengthen regional cooperation. The devil, as always, is in the details. High on the agenda at the Saarc summit was the need to start effectively implementing the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (Safta). The agreement was first signed in 2004, vowed to gradually eliminate tariffs and other trade barriers between South Asian countries and is modelled on the European Union. The goal is to make South Asia a completely free trade zone. The Saarc summit reiterated that but precious little was revealed about how that would be translated into reality.

Other feel-good measures mentioned in the closing agenda are getting the countries to promote the region with a ‘Destination South Asia’ campaign and pledging to work together on disaster management and free flow of capital. Again, these pledges are unobjectionable. It is just that the fear lingers that once the delegations return home from the Maldives, they will forget all about the document they just signed and agreed upon, as has happened so often in the past. This is not to say that the Saarc summit had no value. The region is fraught with tension, particularly in the Indian subcontinent, and so any chance for the leaders of these countries to hold discussions in an informal setting should not be scoffed at. A meeting on the sidelines between Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and his Indian counterpart Dr Manmohan Singh was followed by positive comments from both sides. However, we have seen this happen many times in the past as well, such as when then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee came by bus to Pakistan in early 1999 and met his counterpart, then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif. That was followed by Kargil, a few months later! So the security establishments of both nations need to respect the words and intentions of their civilian leaders for there to be a durable peace.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Sensible decisions

November 14th, 2011

It is a welcome change to see the current administration making development spending decisions with what appears to be a cogent plan. The most recent example of this was the approval given by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) for seven projects worth over Rs86 billion. The highest economic decision-making body in the government, Ecnec seemed to have a clear focus: increasing Pakistan’s economic competitiveness by improving the country’s infrastructure and the quality of human capital. The panel approved spending on building new dams, improving the efficiency of the existing power grid and a significant amount for graduate scholarships for students from Balochistan. All of these are sensible programmes that will have long-term economic benefits for the country. For too often, the problem is not the government’s decision to spend money, but rather its ability to allocate funds between its various commitments. Spending, with long-term benefits, is sacrificed for short-term political considerations. Last year, the development budget was slashed because the government did not have the political courage to slash electricity subsidies. It would be ironic if the effort to improve the national power grid — a project that would save the government money — was abandoned because it once again was unable to cut power subsidies.

Experts in the energy sector estimate that there are thousands of places in Pakistan where small dams can be set up. Small dams have much lower initial costs than the larger programmes that the government has focused on, yet their efficiency rates are just as high. Crucially, their efficiency ratios — the rate at which they convert the energy of their fuel to usable electric power — can be as high as 80 per cent, compared to the much lower 45 per cent for what are considered to be highly efficient thermal power stations. As Pakistan searches for low-cost energy, hydroelectric power is one resource that should be explored and so it is encouraging to see Ecnec allocate funds for this. Nothing would help the economy faster than cheaper, reliable power supply.

A deficit that is widening

November 14th, 2011

On November 11, the government released figures for Pakistan’s trade balance and the report was not good: exports declined in October, compared to the same period in the previous year, and imports increased. The trade deficit widened by a worrying 36 per cent. Unto itself, monthly variations are not necessarily problematic or even unusual. But this government had based its fiscal policies on strong export figures, along with a continuation of record remittances from expatriate Pakistanis. Now that those predictably faulty assumptions have begun falling apart, the ministry of finance is likely to begin panicking, not a state one would hope to see the nation’s top economic managers in, at a time of global financial crises. The government had been relying on strong exports and remittances to keep the current account either balanced or only mildly negative, which in turn would have kept the rupee’s exchange rate with the dollar stable. If the rupee depreciates by a significant amount, the government’s repayments of foreign debt (nearly $3 billion this year) will become more expensive and weaken an already tenuous effort to control the budget deficit.

It is not the government’s fault, of course, that exports have weakened as the global economy is slowing down. Imports, meanwhile, are rising due to what is perceived as a recovery in local manufacturing, which has seen equipment imports go up. At the same time, the costs of commodity imports have risen owing to rising prices and a depreciating rupee. Yet, the government’s decision to base critical fiscal plans on what were very obviously faulty assumptions is certainly blameworthy. If the country now faces a balance of payments crisis, it will not be due to some exogenous shock but because the administration decided to delude itself. At a time when most governments in Asia are marshalling their resources to prepare for a prolonged global economic slowdown, for Islamabad to have made such a flawed decision is a dangerous disregard of duty.

Languishing in jail

November 14th, 2011

Who is the unknown Pakistani prisoner incarcerated in a jail in Indian Kashmir since 1965? Does his family still wait for him? Have they long given him up as dead? Did he have children who can today barely remember a father missing for over four-and-a-half decades? We do not know the answers to these questions. But perhaps the Indian Supreme Court’s (SC) intervention in the matter — hearing a petition from a private citizen — will help us answer them. The Indian SC has noted, with shock, that 254 Pakistani nationals remain in jails in Kashmir alone; four of them are women and none have been put on trial and they continue to be held illegally. It is believed many are being punished simply because they made the mistake of crossing the poorly demarcated Line of Control, which divides the Pakistan and Indian portions of Kashmir, accidentally, perhaps while grazing animals or performing errands.

The Indian apex court has sought a detailed report from the government in New Delhi to explain the situation. It also believes there is a possibility Pakistani nationals are held in other states too; this is almost certainly likely to be the case. The fact is we do not really know how many may be suffering in this fashion. What we do know is that this situation has been going on for years — hostility between the two countries, bureaucratic delays and indifference have all played a part in prolonging the suffering of hundreds. Indians held in Pakistan have suffered as well. Just a few days ago, more Indian fishermen were picked up from our waters; it is uncertain how long they will be kept in custody.

The matter needs to be sorted out urgently. Surely, the lives of so many people cannot be allowed to go to waste just because our legal or judicial bureaucracies are not able to keep track of the prisoners in the system. It may well be the case that this may be happening in Pakistan as well, with Indian prisoners languishing in our jails. Either way, one must hope that the Indian Supreme Court’s intervention can lead to the release of all those Pakistanis in Indian jails against whom no charges are pending.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the state

November 15th, 2011

The Pir Chambal shrine strike in Pind Dadan Khan on November 12 by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) should disturb Pakistan because of what it means in terms of the country’s capacity to fight al Qaeda. The LeJ is a sectarian (anti-Shia, anti-Iran) terrorist organisation closely aligned with al Qaeda, together with the Tehreek-e-Taliban and Jundallah. The Pir Chambal killers kidnapped a group of Military Intelligence (MI) personnel and wanted their men released from prison as ransom, but in the ensuing operation against them they killed all of their hostages. Pakistan has been seemingly trying not to fight the terrorists attached to al Qaeda for various reasons and has been relying on other national hate objects like the US, India and Israel, to deflect attention. In this incident, too, there were reports that sympathetic elements from within the Pind Dadan Khan police had forewarned the terrorists about the coming operation that led to the capture and death of the MI personnel. More significantly, the terrorists were hiding in the Chambal hills for many months and the local police must have had information of this.

The LeJ is the sectarian face of al Qaeda but its main function is to engage in kidnapping for ransom in all the big cities of Pakistan to fill the fast-depleting coffers of its parent organisation. When the military spokesman of the ISPR tells us that the army has broken the back of al Qaeda, he leaves LeJ out. In one case after the other, the courts have convicted LeJ members for abducting people, especially those who are Ahmadis, but the image of the LeJ somehow never takes the sort of beating it should. After its founder, Malik Ishaq, was let off by the courts and ultimately released from a Lahore prison, a flurry of sectarian deaths followed, in particular two gruesome incidents in Balochistan where dozens of Shia Hazara were targeted and killed. Any outside observer would think that the state of Pakistan seemingly has a level of tolerance for these minions of al Qaeda that should arouse suspicion.

Late prime minister Benazir Bhutto was convinced before her death that attempts would be made on her life by the Musharraf establishment through the LeJ on the basis of the interface it enjoyed with it. A Pakistani journalist who interviewed Ms Bhutto after the Karachi attempt on her life, quoted her thus: “I have come to know after investigations by my own sources that the October 18 bombing was masterminded by some highly-placed officials in the Pakistani security and intelligence establishments who had hired an al Qaeda-linked militant — Maulvi Abdul Rehman Otho alias Abdul Rehman Sindhi — to execute the attack. Three local militants were hired to carry out the attack under the supervision of Abdul Rehman Sindhi, an al Qaeda-linked Lashkar-e-Jhangvi militant from the Dadu district of Sindh”. She ultimately died at the hands of another al Qaeda attachment — the Tehreek-e-Taliban.

There are four factors that force Pakistan to lean on its indoctrinated sense of insecurity to ignore the real danger confronting it from within: 1) lack of writ of the state; 2) presence of foreign terrorists on its soil; 3) affirmation of the ideology of the terrorists by the ideology of the state; and 4) the ‘contamination’ of the establishment from the more stringent doctrines embraced by the terrorists. The indoctrinated sense of insecurity which covers up for the reluctance to fight the terrorists is the textbook designation of India and Israel as enemy states and the latest media-led campaign against America according to which the US backs the other two and intends to snatch Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Most Pakistanis are aware of the change this conduct of the state is bringing about. They call it the rise of extremism. But any diagnosis of how this has been brought about will not fail to indicate that it is the impunity enjoyed by the terrorists. There is Pakistan’s vast madrassa network to endorse the strict ideology of the terrorists and there is a response from within the state institutions in the shape of ‘penetration’. The world is increasingly worried about this symbiosis of terrorists with the Pakistani state and society, simply because an isolationist state relentlessly points to ‘external’ enemies who are to be fought first.

Command and control

November 15th, 2011

Imran Khan is widely believed by many, especially his critics and detractors, to be supported by the establishment. Certainly Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan is sure that the ISI helped in the success of PTI’s rally and has said that he is willing to present evidence of this before parliament. For the first time, this notion has been rejected by the PTI chief in clear-cut terms. In an interview with a foreign TV channel, Imran, true to character, has asserted he would never allow anyone to control him, and that instead the chief of army staff and also the ISI would be answerable to him, should he be elected head of government. This is certainly a welcome assertion, given the rumours doing the rounds. It also falls in line with a comment made by the PTI chief to this newspaper that the army would never be able to move in, provided the civilian government acted with competence. The position taken by Imran Khan is now out in the open and it has to be said that, for all his other flaws, he has credibility — certainly more credibility than that enjoyed by most of our political leaders.

For these reasons, we would like to believe that he intends to do what he says; that he would genuinely like to be in command of his own ship and, in the hypothetical situation that he assumes power, have all others playing a role in the running of the state follow his directions. Imran is, of course, right when he says this is how things should be. The question is whether this can truly be the case. Successive governments have struggled to control the army, with its history of a hold on power — either directly or from behind a curtain that veils its actions to some degree. The ISI, which over the years has grown multiple tentacles that reach into virtually every nook and cranny of state, is in many ways even harder to manage. Indeed, there is some doubt if it is controlled by anyone at all, or if it has split into different groups with a life of their own. If the PTI chief can do what he says he intends to, it would be a huge achievement because that is how institutions should work in a truly functioning democracy. But he may find the going tougher than anticipated when the time actually comes to put his words into action.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Pakistan-India trade

November 16th, 2011

Rare is the Pakistan-India summit where the chances of success are higher than those of failure. Yet that is precisely the case with the two-day trade summit held in New Delhi between the commerce secretaries of the two countries. The scope of the trade meeting is not too ambitious — India will use to it to clarify Pakistan’s decision to grant it Most Favoured Nation trading status while Pakistan is trying to get a more liberal visa regime for its businessmen. If progress is made on these issues, we can expect India to lift trade barriers on the import of Pakistani goods and for us to reciprocate by adding 2,000 goods to the positive list of items India can export to Pakistan. Needless to say, the improvement in relations between the two countries has been so remarkable that both sides are willing to set aside their main concerns of Kashmir and terrorism for the time being to cooperate on matters of mutual interest. This shows a maturity in the approach by Pakistan and India, both of whom have sometimes given the impression in the past that they are more interested in hurting their neighbour than helping themselves.

Heartening though the trade talks may be, they merely scratch the surface of the economic potential in improved relations. Currently, trade between Pakistan and India is worth only an anaemic $2.6 billion. This number could easily be quadrupled just by the lifting of trade barriers. In principle, this is what Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and his counterpart Dr Manmohan Singh agreed to on the sidelines of the Saarc summit in the Maldives. Singh offered to sign a Preferential Trade Agreement with Pakistan that would eliminate all trade barriers by 2016. Needless to say, this would be a positive development. Nonetheless, we would be wise to remember that economic cooperation, while making political cooperation more likely, doesn’t guarantee peace between the two countries. Although Gilani and Singh are wisely ignoring the elephant in the room, relations could easily be derailed, perhaps permanently, if there is another terrorist attack in India that can be traced back to Pakistan. Friendship between the two countries has been initiated but the foundations on which it is built are still extremely weak and prone to collapse.

Eventful exit

November 16th, 2011

The exit of former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi from the PPP, and his vacating of his NA seat, was not entirely unexpected. It had been clear for many months now that Qureshi, who has changed parties several times in the past, was an angry and disgruntled man, who had fallen out with his party leadership, notably over the Raymond Davis affair. In some ways, it is better in such a situation for leaders to go their own ways rather than remain unwilling members of a party, and in Mehmood’s case, a party he had criticised quite openly on various occasions, even acting to block bills backed by it.

Nonetheless the departure of a man who was once in the running for the prime ministerial race inflicts damage on the PPP. The timing appears to have been designed to ensure this is the case, coming amidst mounting talk of political change well before the next election is scheduled in early 2013. Mehmood has as yet made no mention of what course of action he intends to take as far as his political future goes — but it is beginning to seem likely that he may end up with the PTI — a party that leaders from other groups are also said to be looking towards, as its star rises higher and higher in a sky where it had once been virtually invisible. Certainly, the PTI appears to be on the hunt for those who can win seats, and Mehmood certainly ranks among these players.

The PPP needs also to consider its own position. The information minister and other senior party members have lashed out harshly against Mehmood. What they say may not be entirely inaccurate. But it is also true that the former minister’s strongly worded attack on his former party and President Zardari will leave behind injuries that will hurt, especially in the current environment where the PPP is already struggling against charges of corruption and lack of integrity. Mehmood has played on these, and will no doubt continue to do so in the future, as the political turntable continues to swing around in rapid circles.

TAPI pipeline project

November 16th, 2011

Of all the potential solutions to Pakistan’s power crisis, importing gas through the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistani-India (TAPI) pipeline project may be the most realistic. Turkmenistan has one of the largest gas reserves in the world and is looking to move away from dependency on Russia and the former Soviet states for its economic health. With a willing buyer and an eager seller, the TAPI pipeline, first proposed in the 1990s, should have become reality by now. Still, the two countries finally reached a breakthrough after signing a Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement, which should make the pipeline operational by 2016. Once the pipeline is up and running, it could allow Pakistan to receive over 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year. For a country that is suffering an acute energy crisis, this is a necessity rather than a luxury.

Despite the signing of this agreement, many of the problems that have plagued the project still exist, security being a major one. Among the routes the pipeline will run through are Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan and Quetta in Pakistan. That would make the pipeline a tempting target not just for Taliban rebels but also for Baloch separatists. It is unlikely that foolproof security could be ensured for the pipeline in these areas, a concern that India has already raised.

Keeping this in mind, Pakistan should not solely commit to the TAPI pipeline and needs to keep looking at alternatives, like the gas pipeline from Iran that would bypass Afghanistan. The main obstacle to the Iranian pipeline is US intransigence — the Americans have been pressuring the Pakistani government to abandon it. On this occasion, though, the pressure should be ignored. Whether it’s from Turkmenistan or Iran, Pakistan desperately needs a steady supply of energy. That concern must come before all other considerations.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A safer place for women

November 17th, 2011

The passage of the landmark ‘The Prevention of Anti-Women Practices (Criminal Law Amendment) Act 2011’ through parliament marks an historic occasion for women in the country. The new law promises to make society a safer place by putting in place tough penalties, including jail terms and fines, for those who violate their rights, by engaging in practices such as swara, wani, child marriage or other crimes against women, such as ‘marriages’ to the Holy Quran. Forced marriage to settle a dispute, for instance, becomes a non-bailable offence. Similarly, depriving a woman of her right to inheritance carries a prison term of between five and 10 years and also a possible fine of Rs1 million. Forced marriage in cases where a dispute is not involved carries a prison term of three to 10 years and a fine of Rs500,000. Similar punishments have been laid down for other offences so common in our society.

The legislation, authored by Dr Donya Aziz of the PML-Q and tabled three years ago as a private members bill, faced a long, hard struggle before it could be turned into law. The swim has been a hard one, pushing against a tide of resistance, both at the committee level and then within the house itself. This in itself reflects the mindsets that have played such a major part in shaping society and setting in place the mechanisms that play such a huge part in the discrimination suffered by women. The passage of the new law thus comes as a triumph; parliament and its members need to be praised for making this happen — and the words of appreciation that have come from the prime minister, the speaker herself and others must too be welcomed for setting the right spirit and making it clear that the country’s top leadership welcomes the new law. This sends out a message that is positive and signals strong support for the law.

We often speak, sometimes without intention, of women’s issues as marginalised ones. In doing so, we appear to forget that women constitute half of the country’s population. They are certainly not a marginalised group but they suffer high levels of discrimination and as such count among the most vulnerable sections of our society. It is essential that they be better protected and be treated as equal citizens under law. Even today, in this age of so-called civilisation, the bartering of women takes place, as does the ‘sale’ of young girls and women. Many such practices persist in the name of ‘tradition’, passed down from one generation to the next and perpetuated because the essentially patriarchal nature of our society has not changed for centuries.

The new law sets out the road at the end of which change could lie. Tough penalties immediately put in place a deterrent. Of course, our history of implementing laws is not good — but even so, simply having legislation on the books helps create the momentum that is needed to bring change and raises awareness about the issues that exist. The passage of the law also brings right to the forefront the advantages inherent in increasing the number of seats for women in assemblies — even if the majority of female representatives is selected, and not elected. Their presence has generated far greater debate on issues of significance for women, and as a result facilitated a string of laws which at the least makes their legal position stronger.

The latest law in particular goes a significant way towards this. But it needs also to be backed by other steps that can help empower women and make them better able to grasp the equal status granted to them under the Constitution, while escaping practices that result in them being treated as property rather than human beings. Also, while we warmly welcome its passage in the National Assembly, those who think that the fight for equal rights for women, and for an end to the discrimination and harassment they face in their daily lives, is over are fooling themselves. This is but a much-needed first step and in a society as deeply patriarchal and misogynist as ours, changing attitudes and mindsets will be the harder part.

PML-N’s threat

November 17th, 2011

Right now, every action being taken by the PML-N is motivated by its desire to remove the PPP-led government from power and force early elections. From rallies against loadshedding to harsh invective against the president, the PML-N is determined to ensure that the government does not complete its term. The party’s latest gambit, floated by senior PML-N leaders, is that they may quit the assemblies within the next two months. When it comes to moves that may force the government out, this should be considered the nuclear option. Without the PML-N sitting in the assemblies, all provincial and federal government work would come to a halt and would, most likely, force the PPP to dissolve the assemblies and call for fresh elections.

There is every chance, however, that such a move, if carried out by the PML-N, would backfire on the party. Voters may blame the party for using such a blatantly partisan move to force out a legitimate government, and punish it accordingly at the polls. But that is a risk the PML-N is willing to take because of its potential upside. With Senate elections due in March, the PPP will finally get a majority in the upper house of parliament. That, as far as the PML-N is concerned, is D-Day. If they are unable to remove the government by then, the PPP will control at least one house of parliament for the next few years, no matter what the outcome of the next general elections.

Understandable though the PML-N’s haste for elections may be, they need to control their urges and let the duly-elected government serve out its term. Street rallies and parliamentary manoeuvrings may or may not force the government’s hand, but without a doubt they will strengthen forces in the country inimical to democracy. The military is probably licking its lips at the sight of Pakistan’s political parties unable to coexist with each other. It is precisely this type of scenario that the military has used to suspend the democratic process before. The PML-N, which was the last party to suffer this fate, would do well to remember that. For now, we should hope that its threat to resign its seats in the assemblies is an empty one.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Our man in Washington

November 18th, 2011

It’s bad enough that his involvement in the Mansur Ijaz saga will likely lose Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, his job; what is even worse is that it will overshadow the stellar work he did in Washington. Admiral Mike Mullen, the recently-retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that he had received a memo written by Ijaz, supposedly at the behest of Haqqani, asking the US to reign in the ISI. Haqqani has tendered his resignation and, although it is yet to be accepted, his role in this affair may well signal the end of his tenure.

Haqqani has been something of a political chameleon throughout his career, starting as a student activist of the Islami Jamiat Taleba, shifting to the PML-N before finally settling on the PPP. But the one constant in his life has been a principled opposition to military dominance over civilian affairs. It is in keeping with this ideology and character, then, that Haqqani would seek to curb the military’s power. But it is how he chose to go about it that is so galling. In doing so, he has provided ammunition to those of his critics who claim that his true loyalties lie with the US, not Pakistan. As such, his actions may end up having an effect opposite to what he had intended. This controversy will also strengthen the military’s hand in castigating the civilian government as sell-outs to the Americans.

Given that the Presidency issued a lengthy statement denouncing Ijaz as a fantasist, Haqqani will likely be the scapegoat and President Zardari will deny all knowledge of his actions. Such an interpretation of events stretches the bounds of credibility but may unfortunately be necessary to keep the military satiated. Amid the torrent of criticism that is sure to come Haqqani’s way in the coming days, though, there are some things that need to be remembered. The military needs to be operating under the authority of the elected government, even if asking the US to arrange that for us is foolish in the extreme. And if Haqqani does leave his post, we will have lost our most effective lobbyist for the country, one who kept US aid flowing and negotiated a satisfactory resolution to the Raymond Davis saga. All the right-wingers who feel jubilation at his demise should keep this in mind amidst their celebrations.

Karachi suicide blast

November 18th, 2011

Just when it seemed like the country may be getting a respite from the onslaught of militant attacks, another deadly incident took place in Karachi. Three suicide bombers, poised to attack, were pursued by police near the Sea View area, only to be embroiled in a shoot-out. In the melee, one of the militants blew himself up.

The casualties including at least four militants and two policemen, and the encounter served as yet another reminder that the militants can strike anywhere at any time. Just a couple of months ago, a terrorist attack targeting a police officer in the same vicinity took many lives and damaged a nearby school. Before that, the shrine of Abdullah Shah Ghazi was brazenly attacked. For years, Karachiites had convinced themselves that they had been spared the militant menace that plagued the rest of the country. We now know that to be a misguided belief. This latest potential attack should sound the death knell for a policy of appeasement. The recent All Parties Conference recommended pursuing negotiations with militants, as if mass murderers can be reasoned with. Not only is holding talks with militants an absurd idea, it has been proven to be a failure on multiple occasions. Peace agreements have been used by militant groups as an opportunity not to put down their guns but to regroup and emerge stronger than ever. Taking the fight to the militants, as this Karachi incident has shown, is as pressing a need as ever.

One shudders to think how many casualties Karachi may have suffered had the attackers able to proceed unimpeded. That they were unable to do so is entirely to the credit of the brave police officers who thwarted them. The police should now also work on figuring out what the actual intentions of these militants were. In the asymmetrical war we are currently mired in, police officers, often without counterterrorism training, find themselves on the frontlines. The whole country has suffered from militancy but none more so than the police.

Vaccine of death?

November 18th, 2011

We keep hearing of reports that state a child has fallen seriously ill or even died after receiving polio drops. For the most part, these stories have been dismissed as hype and criticised by health experts for creating unnecessary fear among parents. It has been stated the children were probably already sick and died of other causes.

But an alarming new report, the details of which have been published by this newspaper, questions this assumption and asks if the vaccine produced by an international, non-profit company, the Global Alliance for Vaccination and Immunisation, based in Geneva, is truly safe. The vaccine is being used as part of the country’s Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). A report by the Prime Minister’s Inquiry Commission on the EPI questions the reliability of the vaccine and recommends a suspension of the polio vaccination campaign until the matter can be investigated in detail. The whole affair amounts to a disaster. GAVI supplies Rs2.4 billion for the Rs26 billion EPI programme. But the report asks if the high-cost vaccines are being bought to benefit GAVI, even though cheaper vaccines from both India and within the country are available. GAVI vaccines, we learn, have also come under scrutiny in a host of other countries, even though the company is supported by a host of reputable international organisations, including the WHO.

The situation is a deeply disturbing one. Any suspension of the polio campaign will create even greater problems at a time when the rate of incidents of polio is soaring. It is, however, clear that we need to ensure vaccines are safe. If doubts persist about this, there will be an even greater reluctance to allow children to be inoculated. The issue of substandard vaccines has come up before. There have been accusations of official corruption in the whole affair. This time around, it needs to be properly investigated so that the full truth can come out and the future of our children secured by making a reliable vaccine available to them.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga