The case of the curious memo

November 19th, 2011

The whole premise of this editorial, for the sake of argument, is that a confidential memorandum, addressed to then Admiral Mike Mullen, was assumed to have been written and passed on to the then US military chief. The latter, for his part, curiously enough, first denied any knowledge of the memo, and then said that he may have come across it; then his spokesman confirmed it; and then someone from among his former staff came up with a copy, which then quite conveniently found its way to a blog maintained by Foreign Policy, a prestigious US-based publication.

A close reading of the said memo would suggest — without taking into account all the havoc that it has caused — that it is a backgrounder, so to speak, on how important decisions and policies (permission for drone attacks, release of Raymond Davis, and so on) in Pakistan are made and implemented, particularly those that relate to security, the war on terror, and ties with foreign states, especially America, India and Afghanistan. It really is no secret — and clearly the memo’s content is no revelation on this account — that much of the power rests with Pakistan’s military. The memo has six points, some of which are more interesting and intriguing than others, none so than the second one. Here, the writer or writers (since the last sentence says “members of the new national security team”) claim that if an independent inquiry were to be ordered by the president, a promise held out in the first point, then it would be “certain” that the findings of the commission so formed would “result in immediate termination of active service officers in the appropriate government offices and agencies found responsible for complicity in assisting UBL [Osama bin Laden]”. These are explosive claims, to say the least, and the havoc unleashed by the memo would seem understandable, especially in the state of relations between the civilian government and the military. Going back to the point, again, that divorced from the effects currently taking place inside the country, the memo does seem to accurately depict the state of civil-military relations in Pakistan. The reference to Osama bin Laden being allegedly harboured by state elements had cropped up initially as well. The real issue is that these accusations should have been investigated thoroughly because bin Laden happened to be the world’s most wanted terrorist and, if elements in the government or its associated departments thought otherwise, they should have been uncovered and held accountable. However, the commission that was set up by the government went on to probe other things, mainly whether there was any cooperation at any level by government officials with the Americans. While investigating this may have been a reasonable course of action, one can only wonder how other, perhaps more important questions — such as how bin Laden could have been hiding undetected in a place like Abbottabad for so many years — were never asked. At the very least, an independent forensic probe should be conducted to ascertain who exactly sent and received the BlackBerry messages that are part of the controversy. This can be done by calling in some foreign experts to ensure the perception of impartiality. And since the matter is of a most grave nature, involving, as some have said Article 6, the Supreme Court could take note of it as well. Nawaz Sharif has already called for a committee into this matter and that is a worthwhile demand.

Instead of routing its attempt to bring the military under its control via the Americans, the PPP-led government should have used the parliament. Let us, for example, consider what has happened in Turkey in recent months, where a once-powerful army has seen its authority appropriated by an elected civilian government. In this, the impetus for change was brought about by the ruling Justice and Development Party, which won an almost two-thirds majority in its third election win this past June. It has dexterously and openly, unlike the backchannels that seem to have been used in Pakistan and that too via a country that seems to be disliked by many Pakistanis, used its widening popular support to tilt the balance of power in favour of civilian centres of authority in Turkey, as should be the case in a fully functional democracy.

Energy morass

November 19th, 2011

For all its successes, there is one area of policy management where the current administration has been an unqualified failure: energy. Why they have absolutely refused to pay any meaningful attention to this critical sector of the economy is baffling. The latest saga in the mismanagement of energy has been the controversial new liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) policy, which critics say favours a public monopoly and importers over domestic distributors. There have even been allegations that the policy was designed to benefit specific parties and individuals.

If there was corruption in the design of the policy, that matter must be investigated. The current case in the Lahore High Court deals only with whether the LPG policy is discriminatory, not whether there was malfeasance in its creation.

It is sad that we as a nation even have to discuss corruption when it comes to the energy sector. Pakistan’s energy problems are highly complex and have an almost infinite number of possible solutions. The conversation that this country needs to have with itself must take all of those factors into account and then it should conduct an informed debate about what path we must choose ahead. Without a comprehensive, well-thought-out energy policy, we may very soon get to the point where we no longer have the capacity to grow our economy. Instead, we seem to be constantly stuck in the morass of who said what and who did what. The political dramas currently playing themselves out are a big enough distraction as it is. Do we really need to have the country’s economic managers also get involved in the mud pit that has become our national political stage? Can we please not have a few people still in charge who can shepherd this economy through what appears to be a largely self-created crisis?

Getting Pakistan’s energy mix right is of the utmost importance. We need long-term thinking in this regard, especially since the last time Pakistan made a major economic decision in the 1990s, we ended up supporting oil-based power plants at a time of record-low international oil prices, forgetting to keep in mind that prices would eventually rise. Let’s hope that the government can stay focused long enough to avoid such blunders again.

Memogate and matters of sovereignty

November 20th, 2011

As a kind of fateful déjà vu, the PPP government has fallen foul of the military and is not being defended by the media as it should be. After the affair of the memo allegedly sent to the US military by President Asif Ali Zardari through his ambassador in Washington, Mr Husain Haqqani, the nation, by and large, seems to be lining up against the elected government. There is some similarity between the Junejo affair under General Zia and what might happen this time around. The difference is that the military today remains paramount but stays behind the scenes while vowing subordination to the elected government. In fact, one can say that there is more trouble between the civilian government and the military because its paramountcy is not upfront as it was under General Zia and General Musharraf.

The military has not had a smooth ride with the PPP whose ruling family it has traditionally despised. Far from subordinating itself to the elected government, it runs the country’s foreign policy in more or less an isolationist fashion not suited to Pakistan as a state bedevilled by internal weaknesses mostly inherited from military dictators. When the Mumbai attacks happened in 2008 at the hands of some non-state actors from Pakistan, the first PPP-military crisis was unleashed. If there was any delusion in the PPP that it could exercise its right to run the foreign policy of the country vis-à-vis India it was shattered. The party thereafter learned to ride tamely behind the military and its powerful ISI.

Unfortunately, when elected prime ministers are threatened by the establishment in Pakistan, public opinion doesn’t side with them. It is only with hindsight that we admit that Muhammad Khan Junejo was perhaps our best prime minister. When he was sent home by General Zia after a foreign policy quarrel everyone plus his own party immediately adjusted to it. Today, analysts blame the frankenstein of the warrior mullah that emanated from his prosecution of the proxy war in Afghanistan and Kashmir. When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was toppled by the army in 1999 on a foreign policy issue, the same thing happened again, perhaps because the people of Pakistan have developed a pavlovian reflex of salivating when an elected government is not allowed to complete its term.

The good sign is that the opposition leader and formerly-removed prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, has decided not to follow the ‘toppling’ reflex and has asked a few questions that the media will not ask. He thinks that the death of Osama bin Laden has been given the wrong spin: instead of protesting breach of sovereignty by the US force that flew in and killed him in Abbottabad, Pakistan should demand to know why he was found in Abbottabad and how he could live there for months without someone within the military knowing about it. A journalist who dared to report that certain sections of the military may have been penetrated by al Qaeda was mysteriously killed. Just like the judicial commission inquiring into the Osama bin Laden death, the judicial commission on the death of this journalist may find itself probing in the wrong direction because no one will depose to it honestly.

The media is clearly partisan. It will not comment honestly about al Qaeda and its terrorist auxiliaries favoured by the establishment for fear of being attacked; it will not take a position in defence of the democratic transition of power in the country. The reaction in a section of the press is that the PPP government is wrong and is even guilty of treason. We always thought that it is the military officer usurping power through a coup who is guilty of treason. We may want to try a civilianised General Musharraf for treason; some of us may even think of the army’s rejection of the Kerry-Lugar Bill. The good sign is that Mr Sharif has forsworn the stance of his party’s leader in the National Assembly and will not abort the system by making his party resign from the National Assembly. He recalls that in his time too he had asked the US to get the army off his back but to no avail. The ‘memo affair’ should be taken in stride and not treated as a crisis of the state.

Poverty and desperation

November 20th, 2011

The case of the one-day old baby boy who was kidnapped from the National Institute of Child Health (NICH) has generated the kind of finger-pointing that does no one any good. Before anything else, this uncomfortable question should be asked: What motivated a young trainee nurse to steal a child and sell it for Rs40,000 in the first place?

It comes down to poverty and desperation. According to the nurse’s statements to the media, she felt she “did what she had to” suggesting that poverty somehow justifies the stealing of a newborn baby. She said she needed the money to care for her ill mother, run the house and eventually marry. Of course, the nurse’s poverty does not absolve her of responsibility for the crime, but it does illustrate how difficult life has become for the average Pakistani and how those in desperate situations can end up doing all kinds of desperate things. With inflation in the double digits and jobs scarce, more and more people are resorting to chicanery to make ends meet. Whether this means increased theft of mobile phones, or more creative schemes like selling babies, the conclusion is the same: economic uncertainty breeds desperation and desperation ultimately leads to crime. And those who do not resort to crime are no less anxious — this past year alone there have been several cases of men and women committing suicide because of poverty. Acknowledging this situation, hospitals and other institutions that could be the targets of similar crimes must wise up and take measures to protect their patients. Security systems using CCTV, which the police relied on to arrest the culprits in this case, must be used to their maximum advantage. But the public health sector suffers from its own form of poverty too, and one must wonder whether the situation will improve when paltry sums of money are spent on health.

Thankfully, the missing baby has been returned to his mother now, and the nurse and her accomplice are behind bars. But unless the cause of such crimes is addressed, new parents will not be able to rest easy.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

PPP troubles

November 21st, 2011

There are few offences in government for which one can be fired, but being friends with Zulfiqar Mirza, as Sindh Information Minister Sharjeel Memon just found out, is rapidly becoming one of them. Memon was forced to submit his resignation after he was spotted cavorting with Mirza in London, an act that immediately led to outrage from the MQM. The PPP, which has already thrown Mirza overboard for his heresies, had to let Memon go too. In the uneasy alliance that exists between the two parties right now, the MQM holds all the cards. In fact, it may be all that stands between the government’s survival and early elections. For that reason alone, Memon had to be sacrificed for his admittedly foolish move in going to London with Mirza.

As for Mirza, he certainly created quite a stir in the home city of MQM chief Altaf Hussain. The ostensible purpose of his trip is to provide Scotland Yard with supposed evidence of Hussain’s alleged involvement in a host of crimes, including murder. But the trip seems more like an opportunity for Mirza to stay in the spotlight, with a host of speeches around the United Kingdom, including ones at the House of Lords and the Oxford Union. One wouldn’t be too cynical in suggesting that this is perhaps a dry run for Mirza’s future political ambitions.

Zulfiqar Mirza has now become an increasingly loose cannon that the PPP must handle with caution. They cannot allow him to continue castigating his own party and so suspended his basic membership in the PPP. Now, as Memon’s forced resignation showed, even Mirza’s friends aren’t safe. But at the same time, Mirza’s lonely crusade has won him plaudits with the Sindhi nationalist element within the PPP, a vote bank that the party has always seen as the backbone of its electoral strength. Losing that would be catastrophic for the PPP in the next elections. Thus you get gestures of reconciliation like the one from Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who said that he still considers Mirza a good friend of his. With the PPP being outflanked by the military on memogate and likely to lose its ambassador in Washington, and the PML-N making threatening noises about resigning from the assembly, this attack from within is the last thing the party needs.

Transgender rights

November 21st, 2011

The Supreme Court’s recent directive that transgender persons be provided with National Identity Cards to enable them to vote in elections is a much-needed step that could lead to the integration of the third-gender community into the broader population.

In Pakistan, attitudes towards transgender persons vary wildly, which is both a consequence and a cause of their convoluted official status in society. Revered, loathed, feared, appreciated and desired in turn, the average transgender person faces discrimination in every sphere of life as a result of their loosely administered rights. Members of the third gender community state that police protection, employment opportunities, fair inheritance and access to health care and justice are systematically denied to them. These cultural attitudes are so pervasive that any attempt to change existing practices by increasing awareness and educating the population will take far too long to work. The only way to ensure that transgender persons are treated fairly is to codify procedures and introduce those clauses into the legal system — something that legislators must push for, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s directives.

Although the transgender community’s struggle is just beginning, their being given the option to identify themselves as either male transgender, female transgender or ‘Khunsa-e-mushkil’ on their ID cards is a positive step, as the ability to freely declare personal affiliations and opinions is the hallmark of a progressive society. Unfortunately, even though this right is being extended to the transgender community, other marginalised communities in Pakistan, namely religious minorities, are still discriminated against despite the existence of laws meant to protect them. Where the implementation of law is poor, it follows that all weaker members of society such as children, women, the elderly, and religious and ethnic minorities, will be in a position of danger.

Marriages by choice

November 21st, 2011

Even more than a decade after the Supreme Court gave a crucial verdict allowing adult women to make their own choice in marriage, this message does not seem to have sunk home to the lower courts which decide most cases involving marriages by free choice. Most recently, the Lahore High Court chided a young woman from Okara for entering into wedlock some three years ago of her own free will. She had recently been kidnapped by her parents who wished her to divorce her husband.

The woman in this case was fortunately allowed by the court to go with her husband, a traffic warden, after she expressed her desire to do so. However, this was not before the judge had asked her why she had ‘let down’ her parents who had taken care of her for so many years. Similar action by the courts has taken place in the past with women sometimes prevented from going with husbands despite the fact that they are adults and have made their choice without duress.

The issue is one of mindsets. It is true that the law allowing marriages by choice is being upheld far more often than before. But problems clearly still exist. We hear again and again of ‘honour killings’ for this reason and of other attempts to force women into arranged marriages. It seems that, even for the courts, tradition has a stronger hold than the law. This needs to change. The fact is that adult men and women have the right to decide whom they wish to spend their lives with. This must be respected by all parties involved. The fact that this does not happen is something we need to change. It is clear the court action in the well-known Saima Arshad case, involving a young woman who opted to marry her tutor, is not enough. More needs to be done to drive the message home. This is possible only by launching a campaign at a wider level and making sure that greater acceptability in society is gained for marriages between two consenting adults.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Guardians of morality

November 22nd, 2011

Mobile phone service providers across the country must, under orders from the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA), prevent the texting, over the vast network system, of some 1,600 words and also submit a monthly report on this. The idea is to control morality. This, of course, is absurd and the entire exercise is also an obviously futile one. It boggles the mind to consider how this collection of ‘offensive language’ was compiled and by whom. We are under threat of becoming the laughing stock of the world. Some of the ‘banned’ words — such as ‘idiot’ or ‘fairy’ or ‘deeper’ can, of course, be used in an entirely innocuous fashion.

But this, of course, is besides the point. The problem we face here is not the ludicrousness of the measure taken, or the choice of words placed on the list, but the fact that such a measure has been taken at all. This is the first time the PTA has made any effort to control the content of text messages on grounds of controlling obscenity. The organisation has lately also made an effort to ban internet access to sites it deems pornographic — even though such material can be obtained in many different ways. The issue that arises here is the effort to bar free speech, free choice and impinge on the privacy of persons communicating between themselves. It is also a fact that what one individual sees as objectionable, may be perfectly acceptable to another. The judgment on this cannot, and must not, be dictated by an outside authority whose actions threaten to turn our country into an Orwellian State. Instead, communications authorities should focus their efforts on providing better and more efficient services to consumers rather than acting as a moral policing force.

We need more civil society protests. Some campaigners, such as the group, Bytes for All, have objected to the clampdown on freedom in cyber space. They need to be joined by other groups so that the basic principle of free expression can be upheld and we retain the right to call ourselves a full-fledged democracy.

Nawaz Sharif’s return to politics of vendetta

November 22nd, 2011

On November 20, the PML-N returned to its old vendetta style politics with the PPP and Nawaz Sharif asked the mammoth gathering at Faisalabad to elect his party again to get rid of a government that was steeped in corruption, had ‘sold the sovereignty’ to the Americans through a memo written by President Zardari and had betrayed the Kashmir cause by putting it on the back-burner for 10 years while allowing India the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status.

He contrasted his own period of governance in the 1990s with what he called dysfunctional governance under the PPP, saying how he had defied the Americans by testing the nuclear device, had achieved eight per cent growth to today’s two per cent and had built the motorway. He demanded inquiry into ‘the affair of the memo’ and threatened to go to the Supreme Court if it was not appropriately carried out. He hinted, while referring to the Pakistan Army in the affair of the memo in a positive manner, that he was ready to forget the past and coexist with the remnants of the Musharraf regime if midterm elections were made to materialised.

His hostile reference to Imran Khan, without naming him, seemed a kind of warning to the establishment against choosing Tehreek-e-Insaf as the next ruling party. Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan appropriately filled in the blanks by explaining how a reconciliation with the army would be possible. The PML-N rally in Faisalabad seems to have set a tone of confrontation with the PPP, which has traditionally polarised the country and forced the smaller parties to line up according to who will offer them more bounties of shared power.

Nawaz Sharif is finally out of the intellectually attractive grey area of not wanting to destabilise the elected government and cause it to fall before its term. The lessons learnt from the ‘power chaos’ of the 1990s were conveniently forgotten on the misleading principle that the common voter is fundamentally a visceral human being with a Manichean world view, making moral decisions only in a battlefield environment: the PML-N will not be good if the PPP is also good; hence the PPP is the villain whose ouster by the PML-N will bring about the utopia Pakistan was originally promised but never permitted.

The reverse transformation of Nawaz Sharif was taking place gradually as the PPP in power got itself embroiled in corruption, got into trouble with the army and began to experience a peeling of the plasters in its Sindh edifice of power. The second echelon leaders of the PML-N, more pragmatic than Mr Sharif, never liked the intellectual posture of letting the PPP finish its tenure. They finally got him to come around to their way of thinking. They wanted him to return to the ‘Long March’-mode when he had taken to the road and got the judiciary restored. Now, the foil is off the rapier and the old toppling practice is back.

Sharif contradicted some earlier stances to appeal to his party’s conservative ranks and to its overall vote bank. His statements this year of normalising relations with India and taking big steps in the realm of economic contacts with it were laid aside as policy projection and the PPP was accused instead of letting the nation down on the Kashmir cause. Of late, he had already been uncomfortable with the right-wing reaction against the PPP’s grant of MFN status to India and he didn’t mind that his references to the ‘memo’ and India made him look as if he was realigning with the army — provided it looked with favour at the PML-N getting back in power.

Nawaz Sharif has his challenges stacked up against him. He wants quick elections because of the looming shadow of Imran Khan; he knows that the national economy is in the doldrums and this time around the Saudis might not come up with free oil; he is aware that non-state actors nurtured by the establishment will continue to insist on sharing power with him informally; he knows that he will have to continue to be anti-American for the sake of credibility, which will strengthen al Qaeda’s ability to call the shots and force him in an isolationist direction; and that he will have to cohabit with General Kayani despite mutual misgivings.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Memogate claims its first victim

November 23rd, 2011

The resignation of Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States Hussain Haqqani was perhaps what was needed to close the chapter on the ‘memogate’ controversy. While he maintained that he had no role in authoring or sending the said secret memo, the government and (let’s not beat about the bush) the military thought otherwise. One version of events has it that the prime minister asked for the resignation, so that any independent inquiry that were to follow would be outside the possible influence of the ambassador. Haqqani, however announced on the microblogging site Twitter that he had offered his resignation and asked the government to accept it. However, until an independent inquiry is conducted, as indeed should be the case, one won’t be able to comment on Haqqani’s role in the whole affair.

The immediate impact for Pakistan will be a vacuum in Washington DC, arguably the most important foreign capital for Pakistan (as would be for most other nations). Haqqani’s shoes, however, may be difficult to fill because if anything, he was good at his job and was reputed to have direct access to senior Congressional leaders as well as top officials in the Obama administration. He was also well-connected in the think-tank and lobbying circuit, which was certainly an asset given the nature of his role.

As for the other protagonist in ‘memogate’, Mansoor Ijaz, reportedly he is no angel either. Certain questions surrounding his role need answers as well. For instance, what made him go public with his claims on the memo and its authorship? Why did he see fit to meet, as reported in a section of the media (and not denied) with the head of the ISI and present the ‘evidence’ to him? Wouldn’t it have been better to submit this before an inquiry or the prime minister? Of course, if the memo was indeed sent, it was a very ham-handed and downright silly way of reining in the country’s powerful military. The principle, that a democratic nation’s military be subordinate and under the control of an elected civilian government is something that needs to be implemented in Pakistan as well but that will happen only if our elected governments get the foresight and the courage to go about doing this in the correct way: that is, through their electorate and by rallying popular support to this just cause.

Anarchy in Balochistan

November 23rd, 2011

Tensions in Balochistan between nationalist elements and security forces seem to be soaring. Soon we may not be far from a situation similar to the one we saw in the 2000s, when what amounted to all-out-war rocked the province. This would be a tragedy — both for the people of the province who so badly need peace and for a country that so greatly needs stability. This stability cannot come until some means can be found to draw Balochistan back into the core of the country and, for the moment at least, this certainly does not seem to be happening.

The latest episode of violence has come in the Musa Khel district where militants attacked a convoy of Frontier Corps personnel. At least 14 soldiers, including a major, died in the action — responsibility for which is being taken by the Baloch Liberation Army, one of the more established outfits engaged in the conflict. There have been other attacks on FC personnel before in various parts of the province, while human rights monitoring groups have consistently reported that there is in the province deep distrust for the security forces who many in Balochistan believe are involved in the disappearance of hundreds of people.

It also seems clear, even as the graph depicting violence rises, that the civilian authorities simply do not seem to be in charge of the situation. This adds to the concerns of people who feel they have once more been left to the mercy of the security agencies and to the kind of nationalist anger that lies behind the latest attack and others like it. The situation is a tragic one and needs to be resolved urgently. This is possible, however, only through dialogue, negotiations and discussion with all stakeholders. Guns and grenades will solve nothing, but instead only add to the violence that has already claimed far too many lives in Balochistan. A start should be made by seriously investigating the abductions and subsequent deaths of hundreds of Balochistan’s residents.

Shining stars

November 23rd, 2011

The marriage of Lollywood actress, Reema, who had dominated the local film industry for almost two decades, to a US-based cardiologist, has brought forth a flurry of media attention and a wave of comment over the internet. Many have congratulated Reema on her wedding and we join them in this. But there have also been a very large number of snide, or even disparaging remarks, directed generally against her and her status as a performer, and the morality within the film industry in general. This simply reflects the kind of mindset that exists today, with many Pakistanis seeing the entertainment industry as one awash in sin and immorality — when in reality it is about people making a living trying to entertain the rest of us. This attitude has had an impact on the standard of films, theatre and other art forms in our country, with India, for instance moving far ahead of us in this arena, as some of the cinematic productions from that country hit international screens. In our country, confused notions of ‘respectability’ cloud the scene and complicate matters, with women in films still failing to attain the status they deserve as talented individuals engaged in a demanding profession.

The manner in which women involved in the entertainment industry are treated has been reflected most recently in the case involving a Punjab minister and his wife, an actress, who ‘vanished’ soon after giving birth to a baby girl. The minister had reportedly first met the actress at a dance performance. Allegations abound that the Punjab government is trying to cover up the matter with the minister denying any knowledge of it. The central issue remains the position of women in film, notions about their character and the wider beliefs in our society pertaining to women in general. Reema’s marriage has, in many ways, highlighted these. But the real question to be asked is; what we can do to bring in change and alter antiquated ideas rooted in the nature of our society and the manner in which it functions?

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A worthy replacement

November 24th, 2011

The appointment of former minister Sherry Rehman as the country’s ambassador to the US is a welcome step even though the resignation of the well-connected Husain Haqqani who, by all accounts, was very good at representing Pakistan in the US, is lamented by many on this point alone, (leaving aside the controversy that led to his resignation). Ms Rehman, who resigned her post as federal information minister in 2009, due to differences of opinion with the president on imposing restrictions on the media, a principled stand, and who was one of the more vocal politicians who bravely condemned the assassination of the late Punjab Governor, Salmaan Taseer, is a much-admired figure both at home and abroad. She is articulate and is expected to be well-received in the US capital.

The expectation is that Ms Rehman will stick to her beliefs and not be dictated to or cowed as she negotiates with the powers that be in Washington. Her personal credibility may go a long way towards assuaging those who may criticise the appointment of a politician to what is arguably’s the country’s most important diplomatic assignment. Moreover, that she is a civilian may have laid rest to fears that the military wanted to dictate who would replace Husain Haqqani. Her appointment may well lend Pakistan’s future agreements with the US much-needed weight, especially given the fact that Haqqani was often criticised by some as being pro-America — memogate being seen by the pro-establishment brigade in this light.

Lost in all this, however, is the fact that we are not yet certain that Haqqani himself or the government was behind the memos in the first place. Even if, for the sake of argument, we accept that he was behind the memo, a bit of nuance is in order. It is perfectly acceptable for those of a liberal bent to be disgusted by the former ambassador’s willingness to seek the help of a foreign power for a purely internal matter, without being tarred as stooges of the establishment. On the flip side, talk of coups and trials was unwarranted, and something spurred not by Haqqani’s actions but by the already-held beliefs of those pushing the argument. This is where the media as a whole could have played a constructive role, ramping down the sensationalism for a change and concentrating instead on reliable reporting.

Talking to the terrorists

November 24th, 2011

The news on November 22 was that a Taliban commander who wishes to remain unnamed has declared somewhere that Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) has stopped its acts of terrorism because it is engaged in peace talks with the Pakistani authorities (read the Pakistan Army). The Pakistan Army has immediately denied that any kind of parleys are in process with the TTP, while the government spokesman has reiterated that any peace talks with the Taliban will take place once the TTP has forsworn terrorism and laid down its weapons.

In the regional battlefield, anyone who talks about talks is assumed to be on the run after being worsted in the overall war. That is what it means to all Pakistanis when the Americans say they are willing to talk to the Taliban. The American press makes no bones about the ‘defeat’ of the US in yet another encounter with the Muslim world after Iraq. The belief, therefore, that anyone who talks about peace talks is on the run has taken root in Pakistan. The language used in the Pakistani Urdu press contains honour-related words that heap sarcasm on the sole world power that couldn’t fight our ‘brave terrorist warriors’.

The Taliban commander who wants to remain unnamed must be fully conscious of the meaning of agreeing to engage in talks. The Pakistan Army, too, knows what it means to yield to the vocabulary of peace and has quickly rejected the rumour that it is engaged in any talks. It has memories of talking to Sufi Muhammad in the Swat-Malakand region and still hurts from the peace deals its two Peshawar-based generals had made with Nek Muhammad and Baitullah Mehsud. It is fighting with the TTP in Orakzai and is dealing with a tough nut called Mangal Bagh in Khyber Agency. And no quarters are given or taken.

The Taliban know that the political opposition in Pakistan is ceaselessly talking about ‘talking to our brothers’ in the Tribal Areas and not siding with the Americans ‘against our own people’. They take it as a weakness on the Pakistani side as it undermines the morale of the Pakistani soldier who is risking his life standing up to the terrorists who kill innocent Pakistanis, kidnap businessmen all over Pakistan for ransom and blow up children’s schools. They look at Imran Khan, the proponent of talks with the Taliban, with suspicion as he might finally put paid to the greatly profitable enterprise of terrorism through the ruse of talks.

Whether you like it or not, talks become meaningful when the two sides measure the costs of war and come to the conclusion that ending it would save human life and free up resources. More often, it is the dominant party that offers talks from a position of strength and hopes to extract advantage from an adversary under pressure in the battlefield, thinking that a settlement is better than defeat. It is the implied defeat in peace talks that deters the Taliban from negotiations. The Americans stepped up the war against them to bring them under pressure and it has not worked.

Talking to the Taliban will be problematic for two reasons. Within the TTP, there are warlords loosely allied against Pakistan with no firm central command capable of taking decisions on behalf of all of them. Since the TTP itself is subordinated to al Qaeda, the big decision about starting negotiations will rest with Ayman alZawahiri who will then talk to his downstream warriors such as the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jundullah. As far as one can judge from the map of violence from Peshawar to Karachi, it is the Pakistani side which is on the run, while politicians of various stripes are seen actually willing to capitulate.

The unnamed TTP commander says the group has ceased its terrorist attacks because the Pakistan Army is talking to it. That is not true because after his statement people have been killed in DI Khan and Karachi by TTP affiliates. The truth is that Pakistan has to fight al Qaeda and its warriors to the bitter end. Fortunately, the world is also under threat from these terrorists using Pakistan as their training ground and is willing to help. The wrong recipe would be challenging the world through isolationism and becoming soft on the terrorists by appealing to their human kindness.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Our civil-military contradictions

November 25th, 2011

The Pakistan Army was gunning for Ambassador Husain Haqqani and has finally gotten rid of him. The quarrel had actually emanated from the mismatch of PPP-army views on how to conduct Pakistan’s external relations. The new ambassador should have been Salman Bashir, representing the pro-army Foreign Office professional diplomats, but the person chosen is Sherry Rehman, another journalist-politician with whom the army should have no cavil because of her recently expressed views on foreign policy. The media says ‘the affair Husain Haqqani’ is not yet over. While the government may have been deliberating how to proceed in the matter, the PML-N has jumped the gun and gone to the Supreme Court. It is expected that the honourable court, already seized with the review petition by the government against the NRO verdict, which aims at unseating President Zardari, will decide how facts presented in the memogate scandal can be substantiated one way or another.

The PPP government is hounded not only by the Pakistan Army but by adverse developments on many other fronts. The PML-N has gone to court ostensibly to find out who has betrayed the state of Pakistan, but the truth is that its real objective is to get the government pulled down in short order. It has emerged from being a ‘friendly opposition’ to a vicious no-quarters-given party, recalling the vendettas of the 1990s which favoured the third party, the Pakistan Army. Ironies are piled up thick.

The PML-N now says it treasures the Pakistan Army and will do anything to save it from being dishonoured by the PPP. It vows that Pakistan’s survival and Pakistani nationalism rest on the Pakistan Army and defending it is the only national interest the state should pursue. Not long ago, the PML-N had got into trouble with the same army over foreign policy and then over the Kargil war, and had to see its leadership suffer exile in consequence of that civil-military contradiction. The other irony is that the Supreme Court, which is now the ‘first independent court in history’ in the eyes of the PML-N, was once considered partisan by it and actually physically attacked. The terminal irony is that the PPP thinks the court partisan in the same way.

In Pakistan, the Pakistan Army is supreme. No one denies it and the expression of this view repeatedly in the media doesn’t disturb the army too much. It is witnessing an enhancement of this supremacy in the denouement of the memogate case and knows that political infighting in Pakistan is expected to intensify in the coming days, ensuring its longevity. It also knows that the PPP is more unreservedly supportive of its policies because it is under pressure from domestic politics, abysmal governance and the crippling spread of terrorism among the national network of religious-jihadi organisations.

Because of the Pakistan Army dominance, further consolidated by universal popular support, no inquiry will really be effective. If a judicial commission is formed — which is on the cards because the PML-N will not repose trust in any in-house inquiry committees — it will tread like the other commissions: a patient favouring one leg. Commissions where the findings could have brought pressure on the Pakistan Army — take the two investigating the death of Osama bin Laden and journalist Saleem Shahzad — are loaded in favour of one side for everyone to see. Will the army follow the spoor of memogate further and try to net President Zardari himself, which is what everyone including the Supreme Court wants? Given the situation, it might content itself by accepting the immolation of Husain Haqqani and go no further. His replacement, Sherry Rehman, has already provided, through her Jinnah Institute, the broadest possible intellectual support to the Pakistan Army’s view of foreign policy, especially as it applies to Afghanistan and terrorism.

Other important areas — like trade with India — are expected to slide down to the back-burner without the army telling the PPP government to back off from it. The current moment finds the army stronger than at any time in the past; it also finds the state at its weakest with its political system voluntarily drained of all representative sinew through pro-army joint parliamentary declarations.

Round and round in circles

November 25th, 2011

It is unfortunate when the government is unable to solve a complex problem owing to a lack of solutions. It is downright unacceptable when the government knows exactly what needs to be done but refuses to solve the matter purely due to a lack of political will. Such is the case with the circular debt problem, where almost every week there are revelations of just how bad the situation is and just how much of it is within the government’s own control.

Take, for instance, the revelation by Water and Power Minister Naveed Qamar that entities owned by or part of the federal government owe about Rs70 billion in unpaid electricity bills, an amount that appears to be in addition to the Rs155 billion owed by provincial government entities. This is nothing short of gross incompetence, especially when one considers the fact that the total amount of circular debt outstanding is estimated to be around Rs300 billion. While it is true that many private sector individuals and businesses have also not paid their bills, the numbers seem to suggest that the problem is largely that of the government not allocating enough money in its budget for its own running expenses.

This newspaper has been an advocate of the government trying to pare down its expenses as a means to control the budget deficit. However, we are shocked by what appears to be the government’s callous disregard for its financial obligations. How can the government possibly initiate a crackdown against power theft — a major problem in many parts of the country — when it appears that Islamabad itself seems unwilling to pay its bills?

It is not as though there are no solutions available to the government. The bond market in Karachi appears to be making it abundantly clear that, were the government to finance its outstanding bills by issuing treasury bills, it would find lenders more than willing to buy those bonds. Petroleum Minister Asim Hussain has been pushing this plan — originally initiated by former finance minister Shaukat Tareen — but he seems to be gaining little traction. Prime Minister Gilani, who has been approached on the subject several times by his cabinet colleagues, owes the nation an explanation as to why there has been no progress on this front. The national grid cannot afford to wait much longer.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

SC judgement on NRO

November 26th, 2011

Ever since it has been reinstated, the Supreme Court has been on a mission to scrap the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), passed by Pervez Musharraf in the twilight of his rule and supported by a PPP that accrued the most benefit from its general amnesty to the political class. Now that a full 17-member bench of the Supreme Court has rejected the government’s plea that the court should review its original verdict striking down the NRO as unconstitutional, we can finally put this remnant of Musharraf’s dictatorship behind us. The Supreme Court, it must be said, has dealt with the NRO case in a mature manner. When the court originally began hearing the case, many feared that it would use this as an excuse to get rid of the government and force all its officials, including President Asif Ali Zardari, to face trial. That has not been the case at all.

President Zardari has been protected so far by the immunity he receives from his office. But now that the NRO has finally been relegated to the trash can of history, the president can be prosecuted once he leaves office. The same is true of other politicians from the PPP, the MQM and the ANP, although the number is far smaller than earlier imagined. Now that it’s been two years since the Supreme Court ruled on the illegality of the NRO, and has since upheld that verdict, the one thing we can safely say is that those who benefited from the NRO were incorrect in claiming that the skies would fall and democracy destroyed if the NRO wasn’t upheld. Self-interest spurred their fears, not a fear for the health of democracy.

Although the PPP is now indelibly associated with the NRO, one must remember that it was one of the final actions of a desperate dictator, trying to cling on to power for as long as he could. The PPP passed the 18th Amendment to the constitution to remove many of Musharraf’s dictatorial laws. By ruling against the NRO, the Supreme Court has done the same. The process may have been dragged out but we should be glad that the country can now move on from those undemocratic years.

Pakistan’s relationship with China

November 26th, 2011

Speaking in Jhelum on November 24, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said that Pakistan-China relations were purely strategic and were not against any other country, and that they would actually help in the promotion of regional and global peace. He had just attended the closing ceremony of a two-week-long Pakistan-China Joint Military Exercise Friendship-IV-2011.

Lest the world take him as speaking tongue-in-cheek, he added that China’s security was dear to Pakistan and such joint exercises would strengthen relations between the two countries, which were facing the common threat of terrorism. He further disarmed regional and global suspicion by pointing to the fact that Pakistan was in the routine of having such joint exercises with other countries as well and had conducted them with 50 other countries.

But the sad truth is that conflict is still the working paradigm in South Asia and in the world. When General Kayani said ‘purely strategic’ relations with China, he probably thought that this would take the adversarial regional mind away from ideas of hostile combinations of force. The fact is that the Jhelum exercise will not fail to elicit negative interpretation and much of that will be based on ‘explanatory’ statements made in Pakistan but not in China, where foreign policy intent is not worn by the politicians on their sleeves.

Unless suspicion is disarmed through codependent trade relations with India, the neighbouring state will go towards seeing any Pakistan-China development as directed against it. India sees much more in the Karakoram Highway, built by the Chinese, than just a trade artery. It says it is a flanking move to challenge India in Kashmir, where Indian troops are deployed, and that Chinese troops are actually deployed in the Gilgit-Baltistan region (something that both Pakistan and China have denied). India has always linked Pakistan’s nuclear programme and its weaponisation to China. The rest of the world, too, is suspicious of China’s policy towards South Asia in general and Pakistan-Afghanistan in particular. In Pakistan, strategists don’t help by looking at the American presence in Afghanistan as being aimed against China — as a challenge to China’s forward move in Central Asia. Pakistani leaders openly say that new contacts with China should be aimed at shifting Pakistan’s big traditional dependencies on America to its all-weather friend, China. Of course, this can have its negative effects in Pakistan, where cheap Chinese imports could deal a devastating blow to local industry and businesses.

What makes matters worse is that Pakistan’s relationship with China is — as is much of foreign policy— dictated by the military which dominates policymaking and sets the narrative and public discourse on how we perceive and deal with the outside world. This is perhaps why we are programmed to look at relations with China as a counter to Indian influence in the region and seem to prefer it over relations with America, which happens to be one of our largest aid donors and largest trading partners. Over time, the elected civilian government in Pakistan needs to take greater ownership of this bilateral relationship so that it can be weaned away from purely defence to social sectors. Right now, the perception that is determined by the armed forces in Pakistan is a fair one, and it is inevitable that the military is the one who stands to benefit the most from it. Of course, this is merely to point out that the benefits of such a deep relationship should accrue also to ordinary Pakistanis, especially in fields which concern and benefit them.

Pakistan’s isolationism and internal civil-military contradictions are retarding its progress towards a prosperous market state that can look after its large population better. To achieve this, Pakistan must stay on the course of normalising its relations with India through free trade and allowing India to trade with Central Asia through its territory the same way it is willing to serve as a transit territory for the movement of goods from Gwadar to the western regions of China. If we were to learn the philosophy behind China’s conduct in addition to just doing military exercises, we would do what the world wants from us and not adopt an unrealistic defiant posture.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Attack on border post

November 27th, 2011

Like all cliches, the one about the trigger-happy Yank who likes to go it alone persists to this day because it contains a kernel of truth. That was reinforced by the November 26 cross-border raid by Nato forces that killed at least 24 Pakistani soldiers manning a checkpost in Mohmand Agency. Without implying that the attack was a deliberate one, the shoot-first, ask-questions-later policy that is standard practice for troops in Afghanistan makes such tragedies inevitable. In retaliation, Pakistan has blocked all Nato supplies from crossing the border, a policy it cannot sustain indefinitely but one that is certainly justified for this unprovoked attack. What makes this incident so galling is that it has so far played out as a rerun of a similar episode from September of last year. On that occasion, Nato forces actually encroached on Pakistani territory and killed two security officials in Kurram Agency. The response then, too, was a suspension of Nato supplies but after an apology from the US ambassador and a promise from then Isaf commander David Petraeus that greater care would be taken, the supply lines were reopened. Expect the same scenario to play out again. The fact is that such incursions of our sovereignty have become routine and we have become so dependent on the US that we just have to grin and bear it. The US, too, has been looking elsewhere for supply routes. It has recently begun using a route that begins in Russia and traverses through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan before reaching the landlocked Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, this latest incident is a bloody reminder of how the two countries are poles apart when it comes to Afghanistan. The reason the US carries out such risky raids in Pakistan is because we have refused to take action against the Haqqani network, claiming it is not in our interest to do so. The US, however, has a muddled policy, prompted by its desire to withdraw from Afghanistan, whereby they want to both, kill as many Taliban militants as possible while at the same time holding peace talks with them. Rather than continue the charade of claiming they have common ground, it may be best for the two countries to acknowledge that, when it comes to Afghanistan, their interests do not match.

Arab Spring must not become Arab Winter

November 27th, 2011

The Arab League foreign ministers are meeting in Cairo today to discuss what should be done next about Syria whose government has ignored their ultimatum for an observer mission that would have helped President Bashar alAssad to step down and hold elections in the country. Turkey is on board with the Arab League and is the most persuasive factor in the situation because it controls Syria’s water and electricity and is holding in asylum Syrians escaping from alAssad’s troops who have already killed 3,500 of them.

The Arab League has 22 members and they are all willing to let the UN handle the situation. So we have a situation where the big veto-bearing powers will have to agree on when to pull the Bashar regime down. What happened in Libya has not happened in the case of Syria because of Russia and China. And the Americans no longer have the stomach to send a regime-changing army into the Middle East. And the Syrian Army is loyal to President alAssad, which means that the crisis will be prolonged and the Syrian people’s aspirations for democracy will not be fulfilled for some days to come.

Nine months ago, Present Hosni Mubarak was made to step down and face trial but the Egyptian military high command had promised a general election in November-December, however, instead of holding firm to the deadline of November 28, the Egyptian police has been killing protesters. Around 33 to 46 protestors have been killed in the last 10 days and nearly 1,300 wounded. Tahrir Square in Cairo is once again the rallying ground for Islamists and secular young people. Unlike Tunisia, the armies of Egypt and Syria have stood by the status quo and will not allow the change people want. In Libya, the army fought the people till it was defeated — with not a little help from Nato — and an appropriate post-Qaddafi government could take over.

In practically all Muslim states, the national army is dominant either upfront or behind the scenes. The armies represent the status quo and hold back the survival instinct of the people who want change. Even in countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, the armies are dominant behind the scenes and will not allow elected representatives to change policies that no longer work. Only in Turkey, the long military-dominated governance is seen to be coming to an end. Delaying elections in the affected states in the Middle East is complicating the map of the ‘revolution’ in favour of dictatorships.

For once the world — counting both the East and the West — is agreed that the states suffering long bouts of dictatorships must turn to democratic governance. A delay in holding elections in Egypt is making it possible for the various fringe groups not in favour of democracy to indulge in violence to move their agendas ahead and usurp the space they don’t deserve to have under democracy. The Coptic Christian minority is being attacked. The American University campus and other buildings in Cairo have been targeted. Is this counter-revolution already? The entire civilian cabinet in Cairo has resigned and its resignation has been accepted by the ‘ruling military council’.

It is a battle between the remnants — the biggest one being the army — of the old order that had no public consent behind it and the millions occupying the streets who are to give legitimacy to any government with their vote. In Yemen, where the ruler has finally made his final bow, the final deal will be struck with the army and elections must be held to reinstate the consent of the people behind whoever rules them.

The Muslim world must not go back to the old, at best, erratic governance which has failed to deliver what it promised: prosperity at the price of democracy. Prosperity has not occurred and the people have lost out on such essentials as education — the Islamic world lags behind the world in useful literacy. The Arab Spring must not revert to the barren Arab Winter of Mubarak, Qaddafi and alAssad. In the broader Muslim world, the armies of Bangladesh and Pakistan, too, must end their behind-the-scenes direction of policies if democracy is not to lose its appeal among the masses.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Militants on the march

November 28th, 2011

Recent attacks against CD shop owners in Swabi highlight how ‘moral policing’ seems to be the latest trend in the country, whether conducted by the state or private individuals and groups. When non-state actors, like the militants who target CD shops in Swabi, decide to take morality into their own hands the situation is infinitely more dangerous than any other form of censorship. At some point or the other, access to the internet, social media and most recently, telecommunications have all been under threat of censorship in Pakistan. When the government spearheads these moves for restrictions of personal liberty it is disturbing enough — but we take comfort from our ability to challenge the state’s actions in court. When militants take it upon themselves to enforce morality, however, there is no recourse to justice.

Operating on society’s shadowy margins, militants say they wish to eradicate immoral or un-Islamic activity, and they use violent means to do so. This practice was at its most extreme in Swat before the military operation but Swabi and other settled districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have faced their own share of violence, with 2007 being an especially bad year for CD shop owners as they were hit by successive bomb attacks. Faced with all this, the issue of censorship pales in comparison to a larger problem: that the writ of the state is being undermined by militants, who kill and bomb innocents with impunity. For a strong, stable Pakistan, the state must be the only entity with the moral and legal authority to crack down on any activity — indeed, the state must be the only entity that can determine whether an act is immoral or illegal in the first place.

Legislative procedures must be followed and debate should allow for all interests to be taken into consideration before decisions are made. If the state does not stand its ground and take steps to curb the militant’s illegal and deadly actions in Swabi now, militants will only carve out greater spaces in which they feel they can exercise their will.

Well done, Team Pakistan

November 28th, 2011

The nature of Pakistani cricket fans is such that winning cricket matches isn’t enough for us; we want our players to be unpredictable, flashy and eccentric. That is why a hit-and-miss batsman like Shahid Afridi, equally capable of reaching dizzying heights of brilliance and moments of sheer stupidity, is a folk hero while the solidly dependable Misbahul Haq has never garnered much affection or respect. Now may be the time to change that view. Under Misbah’s captaincy, Pakistan has become what it never was previously: a team that is consistently victorious. If winning series in all three formats of the game against Sri Lanka was not enough to convince the sceptics then nothing will.

Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka are teams recovering from the loss of their best bowlers — Sri Lanka to retirement, Pakistan to prison. What our complete dominance showed is that we still have the best bowling reserves in the world. The surprise, though, was the batting line-up. Previous Pakistan cricket teams have had individual batsmen that rank among the best in the world but have also been prone to inexplicable collapses. The current batting squad is devoid of stars but heavy on reliability. As much as we love to moan about Misbah’s slow strike rate, his dependability is the glue that binds the batting. Given that both he and Younis Khan are in the twilight of their careers, it was also very encouraging to see the maturity shown by Azhar Ali and the late blossoming of Mohammed Hafeez’s talent.

Crediting our comprehensive victory against the Sri Lankans to the change at the top of the Pakistan Cricket Board may be premature but going forward it will be a welcome respite to have a chairman who doesn’t seem to go out of his way to antagonise star players. The return of Shahid Afridi, after his pointless feud with Ijaz Butt, also points to a new future, one where infighting and rivalries can be banished and forgotten. Given our history this dawn may be a false one and the cricket team could soon revert to type.

Injured healers

November 28th, 2011

The 300 or so nurses who staged a protest last week on the Mall in Lahore and are continuing with the action in search of better pay, have faced a rough time from the police. Even though the Punjab health secretary, on the orders of the provincial chief minister, set up a committee to look into their concerns — it is yet to be seen if this is worth the insults the nurses, gathered from many hospitals in the city, suffered during their protest. So far the talks have been inconclusive.

The nurses, meanwhile, have suffered. They were beaten by police, FIRs have been registered against them and shopkeepers hurled eggs at them. All this simply because they want better pay for the arduous work they do on a daily basis. The treatment the nurses experienced at the hands of police and also onlookers needs to be investigated and those personnel who exercised disproportionate use of force should be held accountable. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has also rightly condemned what has happened and demanded that the police respond calmly.

Time and again we have seen law-enforcement personnel go overboard in the handling of peaceful protests by citizens attempting to draw attention to their concerns. The irony is that full security cover is given when jihadi groups or banned sectarian organisations hold demonstrations, reflecting skewed priorities on the part of the state security apparatus. It is time our police was trained to handle such demonstrations in a fashion that does not inflict physical injury on citizens and that it was held accountable for any excessive use of force. The matter also ties in with the broader attitude towards nursing and those who pursue the profession. Though it is a vital one as far as health care goes, the fact is that nurses are regarded as second, or even third class citizens who deserve no respect and no dignity. This is linked to a great number of social factors. It is also one reason for the poor pays they draw and the long hours of service expected of them.

This issue needs also to be addressed. The nurses, for now, are continuing their protest. We must hope that it ends with them receiving the perks that they seek and being enabled to work with greater professionalism in the future as a result of a boost to their morale which they badly deserve.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga