Guns versus butter

December 30th, 2011

In many standard economics textbooks, guns and butter are often used as two opposing goods to illustrate the concept of scarcity and the need to make choices in allocating resources. The Budgeting for Rights report compiled by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) seems to indicate that in the case of Pakistan, there is a definitive tilt towards guns.

That it spends far too much on defence and not enough on education, healthcare and development is a fact that has been repeated ad nauseam in the national conversation. What is perhaps less well understood is the magnitude of the problem. The HRCP’s report uses budget data and utilises the undeniable truth of raw mathematics: the combined social sector spending of all federal, provincial and local governments in Pakistan is 24 per cent less than defence spending. It noted that while the defence budget is around Rs495 billion, in reality it comes to around Rs580 billion since military pensions are included under another category.

This statistic is alarming in itself, but it obscures some even more worrying trends. Several sectors are ignored entirely and many are inadequately funded. We do not agree with every recommendation in the report, but we do agree that if the nation is going to make any progress in improving the quality of life for the average citizen in the country, the government needs to allocate far more resources — monetary and otherwise — towards the social sector.

One factor that the report implied — but did not state explicitly — was the extraordinarily difficult manner in which the government presents its budget documents, which seem to be designed more to hide information than to illuminate where the taxpayers’ money is being spent. For example, the budget for military pensions is accounted for in the civilian budget. And the line item in budget documents that talks about defence spending does not include the costs of assisting the refugees who must flee their homes as a result of military operations. Furthermore, the report states that the figure does not include the costs of military cantonments, garrisons, or even the production of military equipment and ordnance. If the government caught a corporation with such shoddy accounting practices. The latter would face stiff penalties.

Apart from the concerns of accounting transparency, the government’s priorities when it comes to budget allocations are depressing. Flood relief in Sindh, for instance, has been allocated a paltry Rs280 million even though tens of thousands of people have yet to fully recover from the devastation of two massive floods in successive years. This is from a provincial government that has a habit of not spending the entirety of its budget allocations and returning billions of rupees every year to the federal government. How can they justify not spending on some of the most vulnerable segments of the population, especially when they actually have the cash?

Another more damning criticism is that when the government does spend money on the social sector, it does so in a very inefficient manner. The HRCP report highlights the case of subsidies, on which the government spent about Rs400 billion in the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2011, nearly as much as it spent on education and health combined. There is very little effort on the part of the government to ensure that, rather than spend the funds indiscriminately, they target those groups who need them most.

There are some aspects of the report that we disagree with. For instance, the HRCP calls for an increase in the monthly stipend received by families on the Benazir Income Support Programme as a solution for the project’s inefficiencies. One is not opposed to an increase in the stipend, but the programme should make the assistance conditional on families sending their children to school and subjecting them to vaccination, similar to the hugely popular and highly successful Bolsa Familia programme in Brazil.

Corruption in India

December 30th, 2011

After months of debate and public agitation in India, including a much-publicised hunger strike by anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare, it looks like the much-talked about Jan Lokpal bill may fail at the final hurdle. The bill, which would set-up independent ombudsmen to keep a check on government corruption, is being stymied by the Trinamool Congress, an ally of the ruling Congress Party, in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of parliament. The Trinamool Congress wants many provisions of the bills to be scrapped because it feels they infringe on the rights of the states. Since the government is already in a minority in the Upper House, this could at best delay the passage of the bill by a few months or even kill it altogether.

Many of the bill’s provisions have come under intense criticism by parties across the political spectrum. The main complaint about the bill is that it gives far too much power to unaccountable ombudsmen and thus, is undemocratic. Some also feel that the bill is unconstitutional, since it gives the ombudsmen quasi-judicial powers and so, even if it passes in parliament, could be struck down by the courts. Of course, public sentiment in India seems to think otherwise, with Mr Hazare gaining saint-like status among many ordinary Indians who see the Congress-led government as one riddled with corruption and mismanagement. Of course, opposition parties have also exploited this matter for their own ends and the wall-to-wall media coverage of Mr Hazare’s hunger strike did not help the government either.

The government has also been accused of watering down Mr Hazare’s demands. He wanted that all government functionaries should be made answerable to the jurisdiction of the ombudsmen — but that would clearly put too much power in their hands. This could also create a parallel system of accountability to rival that of the courts and parliament. Furthermore, the judiciary remains exempt in the government’s bill as does the office of the prime minister. The argument here is that the judiciary has a self-governing system, but critics say that this doesn’t work well since an institution, no matter how clean, should not be given the task of investigating itself.

SC verdict on memogate

December 31st, 2011

The verdict by a nine-member bench headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry that the apex court will investigate the controversial unsigned memo, which Mansoor Ijaz alleges was written by Pakistan’s former ambassador to America, Husain Haqqani, and which is being presented by the petitioner, PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif, as an attempt by the PPP-led government to subvert the military, has raised many eyebrows. The most immediate question that comes to mind is: should the honourable court have accepted the petitions and decided to investigate the matter by setting up a judicial commission of its own given that parliament is already seized of this matter, with a committee constituted for the said purpose? Clearly, many will consider this to be a signal to parliament that it is not the paramount institution in the country and that its authority and sovereignty is limited by situations such as memogate, where the apex court, acting on a petition to investigate the matter, can decide to direct a probe of its own.

One can then wonder that would India’s Supreme Court, or America’s for that matter, step in and take matters in its own hands if a similar situation were to occur in either of these countries? The factual answer to that is that nothing like this has really ever happened in either India or America but if one were to ask hypothetically, as in, what would their Supreme Court do, then the answer would in all likelihood be that the court would let the politicians decide the matter among themselves. Also, the situation in Pakistan is complicated by the fact that the government will now be investigated at the request of an opposition politician, in a case in which the military seems to have, made up its mind — given the affidavits filed by its chief and the head of the ISI, that the memo exists, that its intention was indeed to damage the armed forces and that this is not in the national interest. As the case now continues, and the judicial commission does its work, one can only hope that the various institutions of state will realise the boundaries that the Constitution sets for them and adheres to them. In this, constitutional mandates should be the guiding principle, not populism or a sense that the general public wants to see the government of the day out.

Pakistan’s perceived corruption

December 31st, 2011

The latest perception report from Transparency International Pakistan (TIP) shows a limited number of respondents see centres of corruption in Pakistan in the following descending order, of being perceived as the most corrupt to the least: 1) land administration; 2) police; 3) income tax; 4) judiciary; 5) tendering & contracting; 6) customs, plus state corporations and the last is the army. Once again TIP has expressed its shock at the mounting lack of honesty in public affairs and has listed some of the reasons why the graph of evil is creeping upwards every year.

It is not surprising that land administration is the first among the perceived culprits. It is vastly the domain of the provinces where the politician has yet to begin to take responsibility for sorting-out maintenance and collection. Land record is still in primitive shape and the low bureaucracy that handles the sector is not upgraded and made competitive. Most of the trouble takes place away from the big cities because the writ of the state languishes in smaller districts and abdicates to three power centres: the feudal landlord (often a politician), the police and the judiciary. It will take a long time to sort-out this mess and it will not happen at the same speed in all the provinces. The police has endemic ills that most states in the Third World have failed to tackle. The recruitment of policemen has been pegged to good education only recently, but the provinces — whose domain this is — have been remiss in making the kind of allocations needed to upgrade the institution’s performance. The ratio of policemen to population is abysmal, training standards — though imitative of the army — are nowhere near being practically useful and low status has kept the average policeman tied to slavish behaviour towards the seniors and a brutish one towards the common man.

But the police may not be intrinsically as bad as the circumstances of its functioning make it. State policies favouring non-state actors involved in terrorism on the side have hamstrung the police. Unwillingness to prosecute has instilled in the department a habit of not trying too hard to convict, say, terrorists from a shady jihadi organisation simply because it is being clandestinely supported by the state. Because of this ambience of state-backed criminality, many policemen themselves indulge in crime and get away with it. Many senior policemen live beyond their means and own properties they could not have bought with honest money. As for the tax administration, if one were to look at the statistics, things may be getting better — and that is why it is no longer number one in corruption. Pakistan’s revenue collection is one of the lowest in the world (with the tax-collection machinery believed to be riddled with corruption and inefficiency) and that impacts directly the capacity of the state to spend on development. The reigning theory is to erect a system in which the income tax officer comes into least contact with the taxpayer.

Transparency has pinpointed the ills in the judiciary which is headed today by a universally recognised independent Supreme Court. The latest diagnosis of inefficiency as reflected in the backlogs is owed to the clash between the judiciary and the executive which the report exemplifies by saying that “26 of 40 posts of judges were vacant in the Sindh High Court”. The apex court has gone activist and uses its suo motu jurisdiction against a government that is already trapped in an unstable situation. Some advise judicial restraint, given the fact that the entire state structure is threatened by terrorism and its effect on the functionaries.

Today, the perception index of corruption is, in fact, an index of how well the state is holding up. Image is everything. Since the 1990s, the world has been seeing Pakistan as a failing or a failed state. Next door, in Afghanistan, the state was always partially dysfunctional and there was only a blurred line differentiating between what was legal and illegal: today as the Americans make ready to leave, Afghanistan’s most glaring indicator of its failure is corruption. One hopes that Pakistan, not in the best of states, doesn’t go Afghanistan’s way.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The closing of the Pakistani mind

January 1st, 2012

The year 2011 must rank as one of the worst years in the nation’s life. It began with the killing of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer and ended with the most internecine of politics to topple the incumbent government before its term in office via the memogate affair. This happened in the midst of an ominous national consensus which seems to have rallied behind the military against the United States, while all economic indicators presaged doom for 2012.

Rage and excessive passion characterised the functioning of many key institutions, with the masses following their lead thanks to the dubious role played by a vastly expanding but increasingly cash-strapped media. Foreign affairs were most immoderately handled, with the army calling the shots and a divided community of politicians pushing each other to the point of no return. The Raymond Davis case was handled in a curiously unbalanced manner without regard to consequences, pledging qisas (hanging) but falling back on diyat (blood money).

The year saw a new peak of the steadily gestated extremism in our collective national behaviour with the blasphemy law netting more innocent victims from among the minority communities. Moreover, the lawyers’ community, which everyone thought was tempered by the finer points of law, exposed itself as an extremist fragment that actually encouraged criminal behaviour.

What was most condemnable is that the nation bent to the command of the extremist because of fear while pretending to be pious and full of ghairat. The right-wing opposition embraced the violent worldview of the terrorists, thinking it went down well with the masses. The liberal was on the run, hiding his stripes lest he be the victim of the excessive passion of the conservative. The war against terrorism was decidedly not the war that Pakistan wanted to fight. Led by the army, the political lemmings decided to walk to the edge by calling the terrorists ‘our own brothers’.

The result was that when Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, the nation minded the fact that he was killed — some state-backed non-state actors actually observed namaz-i-janaza for him — forgetting that he and his many local affiliates had killed innocent Pakistanis. You have to be a non-Pakistani to understand what was happening in June when the nation ‘united’ and the politicians got together in an APC, led by the nose into what appeared to be Pakistan’s most isolationist phase. Pakistan’s relations with Isaf-Nato states plummeted and October saw what appears to be the endgame, not in Afghanistan, but Pakistan.

When the state was expressing its willingness to fight the world and not the terrorists, and the people were forming a suicidal consensus, nothing was going right with the economy. The infrastructure wound down quickly, the railways gave up its ghost, the PIA started grounding its planes because of lack of funds, and the industrial sector was halted by the shortage of energy pushed by dwindling reserves of natural gas that Pakistan had been guzzling with no planning or the future. People living without electricity attacked public property to make the government heed their grievances.

The only community that flourished were the terrorists that the politicians wanted to embrace and the military didn’t want to take on because of its seeming obsession with the endgame in Afghanistan. The nation’s dumbing down became almost an epidemic, propagated in large part by the anchors of the TV channels. That said, a generally vibrant media was a welcome check and we can hope for relatively more mature comment in future. The increasing use of social media among many urban educated Pakistan is an added positive as well, since it is, to some extent, shaping public discourse. Furthermore, it has led to a more freeing of the rigid control of information exercised by the state. The year ended with mammoth political rallies organised after their leaders pushed the right buttons — hate America, love the Taliban — reinforcing the state’s isolationist trajectory. Yet with a new party emerging as a popular contender, the political scene was revitalised — and many who had given up set aside their pessimism to take part in the new developments which will be played out 2012.

Murdering the truth

January 1st, 2012

The murder of Dr Syed Baqir Shah, the police surgeon who contradicted the official version of the Kharotabad killings, raises a disturbing thought — that it is, perhaps, too much of a coincidence that months after he gave evidence before a judicial inquiry implicating members of the law-enforcement agencies, he dies a violent death. This isn’t the first time Shah was targeted after he gave testimony to the commission investigating the Kharotabad killings that the five foreigners involved in the tragedy had been killed by security forces and not after detonating their own hand grenade, as had been originally claimed. Just the day after he had given his testimony he was picked up and severely beaten, an act that was blamed on a drunken policeman. A far more likely scenario is that the first attack was meant to intimidate Shah into changing his testimony. When that didn’t happen he was ruthlessly shot dead as a warning to all would-be whistleblowers in the country.

Obviously, as one of the prime suspects, the police cannot be entrusted to carry out the investigation into Shah’s murder. Instead, it would be appropriate to expand the remit of the Kharotabad commission to also pinpoint Shah’s killers. The Quetta police chief claimed that Shah’s murder was an “act of terrorism”, but in this case the terrorists may well be part of the state. Only an independent enquiry, free of the state’s influence, can provide a definitive answer to that question.

Meanwhile, the commission also needs to ensure that protection is provided to all the other witnesses whose testimony may not have been to the pleasing of the police and Frontier Constabulary. Among them is the taxi driver who was being used by the five foreigners. The driver testified that the foreigners were all unarmed and fearful of being targeted by security personnel. Since the local police cannot be trusted to provide for his safety, the driver needs to be placed under a federal witness protection programme. The same needs to be done for the cameraman who took a video of the shooting and has since claimed that he has been receiving death threats. Shah’s brutal murder is a very grim reminder of the dangers one faces in Pakistan for speaking the truth.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A question regarding May 2

January 2nd, 2012

Leader of the opposition, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan of the PML-N, who has generally take a more pro-military and anti-American stance than his party leader Nawaz Sharif, has now decided it would be a good idea to blast Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani for his remarks wondering how Osama bin Laden was able to hide in Abbottabad for so long. That statement by Gilani, in the mind of Chaudhry Nisar, was tantamount to a “charge sheet” against the military and would provide further grist to the anti-Pakistan international community. It seems Chaudhry Nisar, a politician who is extremely interested in finding out who wrote the memo that landed on the desk of General Jim Jones and in how US Navy SEALS were able to enter Pakistani airspace, is far less curious about how Osama bin Laden led a comfortable life in our country for so long.

Joining him in that lack of interest is the Abbottabad commission that is investigating the May 2 capture of the al Qaeda leader. So far, the commission has focused its investigations on whether the US violated our sovereignty in the raid. The answer, as the commission has deduced and as anyone could have told it without the need for dozens of witnesses, is that yes our sovereignty was violated and that, in fact, the US had always maintained that it had little interest in such niceties if it would prevent them from capturing Osama bin Laden. The Abbottabad commission has also shown its keenness on investigating such ancillary matters as how many Americans did former ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani issue visas to. But it has been completely silent on the not insignificant matter of Bin Laden’s presence in the country. The protestations of Chaudhry Nisar and the Abbottabad commission notwithstanding, the fact is that the prime minister has raised a powerful point. If our sovereignty is all that precious, why then is the military not the slightest bit outraged that Osama bin Laden was able to live in Pakistan without our knowledge? And does the military’s lack of interest actually mean something more sinister? No matter what the answer to that question, it means that the military and its intelligence agencies are either guilty of incompetence or tacit collusion. This more than anything else, including questions of sovereignty, is what should be investigated.

Quetta suicide attack

January 2nd, 2012

The suicide attack in Quetta on December 30, that targeted the son of former federal minister Naseer Mengal and killed at least 13 people, and for which the proscribed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed credit, has to be condemned even by all those sympathetic to the Baloch cause. The attack marks a terrifying escalation by the separatist movement as this is the first time the BLA has aped the tactics of terrorist groups and carried out a suicide bombing. Apart from the needless loss of life in the attack itself, the BLA has ensured future bloodletting as retaliatory attacks are all but ensured. And by resorting to such barbaric tactics, it will end up hurting the legitimacy of the Baloch’s struggle to get their due rights. The sentiment in Balochistan has been increasingly tending towards separatism over the past few years, which makes it very hard for the government to negotiate with the representatives of this movement. The separatists even rejected the Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan package proposed by the PPP-led government soon after it came into power. But this does not mean that the government should be lethargic in giving the Baloch the rights they deserve, just like people of other provinces. Indeed, attacks like the one on Mengal’s son only highlight the urgency of doing so. There is still time to win over those Baloch, who support the separatist movement but are not an active part of it.

The best tack for the government to take is to finally implement the Balochistan package that was announced more than two years ago. Exiled Baloch leaders should be allowed to return and work has to begin on development projects in electricity generation. The Baloch people also need to be convinced that their resources are not being stolen by Punjab and instead will be used for the progress of the province. These steps, which for some reason the government has not shown much interest in taking, are actually the easy part. Other necessary measures like getting the security forces out of the province are gargantuan in comparison.

The fire of revenge

January 2nd, 2012

Revenge is a fire that blinds sanity and, quite often, leads to heart-wrenching brutalities. We witnessed one such gruesome incident on December 29 in Gujranwala. Fourteen people, including four children and four women, were killed when a group of armed men attacked a cluster of houses belonging to their enemies. The gunmen fired indiscriminately on helpless women and children. Later, the attackers set the houses on fire, making sure no one managed to escape. The violence was triggered by two murders earlier in the day, when two relatives of the attackers were killed. The reason was a long-standing feud over land and property. Unfortunately, this is not the first time that such crimes have taken place and it surely won’t be the last. Last year, two brothers were brutally bludgeoned to death in the neighbouring district of Sialkot, after being accused of robbery. The similarity in these two, otherwise unrelated incidents, is the sheer violence and rage that led to the loss of lives. There is a greater need to reflect why such intense hatred and violence has seeped into the depths of our social and political culture.

Indeed, violence has become all too pervasive in our society and the easy availability of illegal weapons has compounded the problem. The state’s authority has waned over the years and police has repeatedly failed to maintain law and order. In this incident as well, police is accused of being a mere bystander while the gunmen went on a rampage. Shahbaz Sharif, the Punjab chief minister, has ordered an immediate inquiry. Few low-ranking police officials have been suspended. But these steps are clearly not enough and can be dismissed as mere cosmetics. Verbal promises and lip service will not suffice. Such inquiries in the past have yielded unsatisfactory results. The need is to make sure that a meaningful inquiry is held this time with conclusive results and effective implementation. Police and other law enforcing agencies have to ensure that no one takes the law into their hands and recourse to law should be followed at all costs.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Doctors and death

January 3rd, 2012

Death has come again for a doctor in Karachi on the last day of 2011. Dr Saleem Kharal, a department head at the Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, was shot dead while he was out in his car with his wife. The reasons for the murder are unclear, but they have angered doctors across a city which has seen too many members of the profession die over the years. At least four have been killed in the year that has just passed. Many others also fell since the 1990s, according to the Pakistan Medical Association (PMA). In some cases, the motives for these murders appear to have been strictly sectarian. Doctors belonging to religious minorities are being targeted more than ever, as related in the murders of several prominent doctors from the Ahmadiyya community. Apart from this, doctors are also being threatened in a much more organised fashion, through extortion mafias. These mafias, which have been linked to political parties, have been accused by the medical community of demanding bribes as protection money.

Though the PMA has called for action repeatedly, not much has been done. Security agencies plays part of the blame on doctors themselves, saying they do not provide the police with enough information to act on. However, doctors rightly point out that if they bring their cases to the police, they will not be adequately protected during a judicial inquiry. Rather than engaging in circular debates, there are concrete steps that must be taken to protect the medical community. Where killings are motivated by religion, the government must crack down on the activities of militant groups. Extortion mafias must be dismantled, no matter who their backers are. For this, doctors must work with the police force, which in turn must guarantee them protection. It is estimated that, over the years, some four thousand doctors have left the country. The exodus means fewer physicians to treat people where there are already very few qualified physicians.

Selling organs

January 3rd, 2012

A report on the front page of the January 2 edition of this newspaper tells the shocking story of a man in Lahore who sold his kidney for a price of Rs100,000, which would eventually be sold by a middleman to the kidney recipient at a cost many times that amount. His story illustrates all too clearly that, while Pakistan may have laws regulating organ trade, the government has not been entirely successful in enforcing them. In 2007, after there was considerable outrage over the black market trade in human organs, the Supreme Court directed the government to take action. What resulted was the Transplantation of Human Organs and Tissues Bill, which banned organ donations by those who were below the age of 18, or unrelated to the recipient. Each donation had to be approved by a committee of medical experts, who would also judge if the donor had been coerced into the transplant. The bill set a maximum punishment for all those involved in the trade, including both, the recipient and the donor, as well as any middlemen and medical staff involved.

The problem, however, is not the law but its lack of implementation. Pakistan has become a popular destination for organ tourists — foreigners also come to the country for organ transplants. They might be charged as much as a couple of million rupees for the transplant, which is far cheaper than what they would have to pay in other countries, while those who donate their organs get a relative pittance. Part of the problem is that Pakistan does not have a culture of deceased organ donors, inflating the demand for live donors. President Asif Zardari tried to change that through a public relations campaign in which he vowed to donate his own organs after his death. Along with continuing to encourage people to sign up to donate their organs after their death, the government needs to enforce the law. Any hospitals found to be involved in the illegal organ business should have their licenses revoked and stiffer penalties should be given to middlemen and recipients than those mired in poverty who see no solution to their woes other than making some quick cash by selling their organs.

A prank too far

January 3rd, 2012

Unlike the scenes of prompt action one sees at emergency services around the world when the phone rings, nothing happens when an emergency call is made to the police-run 15 rescue centre in Sialkot. Staff at the centre say that almost all the calls are ‘hoax’ or ‘prank’ calls and so they see little point in responding to them. Similar complaints have been made in the past by the 1122 rescue service in Lahore and other cities, though in most cases they still reach the address given. The ‘pranksters’ perhaps do not realise that through their actions, they are both blocking lines and preventing those facing a real emergency from receiving help. There have been complaints in Sialkot of precisely this happening, and people with genuine emergencies suffering in the process.

At the Sialkot rescue centre, up to 5,000 calls are received on eight phone sets daily. However, more than 90 per cent are false. To add to the complications, people also call the number from other districts,making response impossible. The situation then is clearly not a happy one at all and requires some kind of action. This is not just a joke, or a matter of people having fun. The ‘false’ calls can quite easily result in lives being lost or damage of various kinds committed. There had been talk some time ago of penalties being imposed on those making fake calls to the 1122 services. There appears to have been little follow-up on this, even though calls today can be easily traced. This is the kind of work the PTA should focus on rather than working to block websites or censor text messages.

The question of civil responsibility also comes into play. We all know there is far too little of it in our country. But hampering the work of the rescue services poses a real threat to those in need. We need to convince pranksters out there that they need to find some other, more innocuous form of entertainment.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

One year on

January 4th, 2012

On this first anniversary of the assassination of Governor Punjab Salmaan Taseer, we must take stock of how much moral backbone the country has lost by acquiescing in the persuasion of terrorism and the creed of extremism activating it. Two agencies or two professions must be held responsible for the downfall of the conscientious in the country: the media and the lawyers community. One puts to shame the brainwash of the fascist regimes of history; the other must give the judiciary a pause when re-evaluating the role played by the district-level lawyers in its restoration. Governor Taseer did not insult the Holy Prophet (pbuh); he simply protested a flawed legislation that causes the victimisation of the disadvantaged communities in the country. The role played by the media and the lawyers scared off the sane elements in society and the political party in power. Instead of making Taseer the emblem of our righteous objection to a very controversial law, we allowed the murder to go by default. Prominent citizens expected to uphold his cause, absented themselves from his funeral and clerics ran away from their duty of leading the janaza. Later, as if to confirm the moral backsliding of the nation, Taseer’s son was kidnapped from Lahore and is still being held for ransom.

There is much that the media must hang its head in shame for. The fact that some opinion is eschewed because of fear of being killed — and some good journalists have been killed or thrashed — can be overlooked; but the fact that many media persons actually share the world view of the murderers cannot be forgiven. The case of Governor Taseer was a false reality manufactured by a large section of the media which acted irresponsibly. The default practice is to get the politicians to hate each other and fight in public view; or to frame the politician in such a way that s/he becomes a target of hate crime. A particular talk show host constantly traded accusations with him that put him on the defensive and projected Taseer as someone actually inclined to blaspheme. The fact was that he was not guilty of blasphemy; he was made to look like defending a community that is assumed to be blaspheming. The media followed up by actually giving airtime to people who accused him of committing blasphemy. The violence of words usually leads to violence of acts. And this is what happened. A policeman thought he could win the adoration of the nation by killing Taseer. What he killed was the reputation of Pakistan as a sane country.

The lawyers usually come from the small districts where the writ of the state is weaker than in the big cities and there is a lot of violence used by the local strongmen to impose their order on the rural communities. After becoming successful there, lawyers usually relocate to big cities to educate their children and to escape the yoke of feudalism, police brutality and victimisation by an errant magistracy. But their minds remain arrested in the intolerant paradigm of religion, mixed with politics of power. Salmaan Taseer’s killer was lionised by the lawyers of the Rawalpindi Bar Association who showered him with flower petals and condemned the anti-terrorism judge who convicted him. The violence that the lawyers committed all over Pakistan — intoxicated with the sense of power imbibed from the restoration of the top judiciary — had reached its evil acme.

Taseer’s death has signalled a new low point in our collective conscience. And we are reaping the tragic harvest of this depravity in the further killing of undefended communities. Taseer defended a poor Christian woman targeted by fanatic elements buttressed by a frequently-misused law. Today, a number of helpless women of the Hindu community in Sindh are being victimised without much reaction from the Muslim majority. The Muslims themselves are punished with internecine violence for this dulling of the sense of social justice. The state releases the dogs of sectarian war from jail only to have them kill members of the Shia community. Taseer wanted us to have a liveable Pakistan and he paid for that with his life. Today, as Pasban Jafaria activists gather in Karachi demanding justice from the government, we are reminded of a sacrifice in 2011 which we allowed to go waste.

Shutdown of CNG stations

January 4th, 2012

All major highways leading into Islamabad and much of the frontier province were blocked by hordes of angry transporters, protesting yet another shutdown of CNG stations. Their anger is understandable since they rely on a steady supply of gas to earn a living, but shutting down major transport routes does nothing but deflect anger from the government and towards the transporters. The fact is that the gas crisis has been many years in the making and, short of a massive price hike to reduce demand, there are no easy short-term solutions. For years, we had been told that gas was a cheaper, more environmentally-friendly option to fuel and that it was available in abundance at home and so would not need to be imported. To convince people to make the shift, the government subsidised gas well below the market rate. We became such a gas-consuming nation that Pakistan has more CNG-equipped cars than any other country in the world. And now, surprise surprise, we are facing a gas shortage of one billion cubic feet. Yes, the government is to blame for encouraging the use of gas for so many years and then showing no interest in tapping new gas reserves but now that we are in this mess, mass protests will be futile and counterproductive.

In the longer term, the only option that is available — and it is a good one — is to start work on building regional pipelines. Turkmenistan has one of the largest gas reserves in the world and Pakistan has inked an agreement with the former Soviet state to build the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline that should be operational by 2016. This could lead to the import of as much as 10 billion cubic metres a year. The only potential problem with the TAPI pipeline is the security situation since, the proposed pipeline will run through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan and Quetta in Pakistan. The only other alternative is to ignore US demands and finally build a pipeline that will allow us to import gas from Iran. What solution we ultimately do pursue to make up for our gas shortage, the reality is that now we have little choice but to look abroad to meet our energy needs.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Talking to the Taliban

January 5th, 2012

Doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results may be the very definition of folly. Despite mixed messages from the government, it now seems that we are once again negotiating with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Expecting good-faith negotiations with a group that is devoted to carrying out sneak attacks and suicide attacks aiming to kill as many civilians as possible, is problematic at the best of times. A recent report of leadership rivalries in the TTP, actually makes this the worst possible time to start talking to and compromising with the militant group. It seems that Hakeemullah Mehsud, the head of the TTP, is engaged in a power struggle with his deputy Waliur Rehman. The struggle is apparently so bitter that al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban have intervened to try and mediate the dispute.

There are a couple of major problems with trying to negotiate a peace deal with the TTP at this juncture. Firstly, it is not clear who the victor in this leadership battle will be, so we may end up negotiating with the losing side, making the whole process irrelevant. Secondly, the TTP has a history of wanting to conduct talks when they are at their lowest ebb. This gives them some breathing space and time to regroup after which they can violate ceasefire deals and other terms of agreements at will. At this uncertain and vulnerable time for the TTP, the government should be redoubling the fight against the group, not allowing them time to recuperate.

If an agreement is imminent, which intelligence officials claim it is, the first thing we have to know is whether the peace deal has been made with Hakeemullah or Waliur Rehman. Then, we need a convincing argument for why this particular agreement will be any different to the three failed deals that preceded it. Simply saying that it will be different does not make it so. The early signs are not encouraging. The TTP always prefers making deals in winter, when fighting is harder, only to regroup and become deadlier than ever when the weather improves. It is also notable that the Taliban have agreed to halt attacks on civilians but not security forces. Even if their word is to be trusted, this means that fighting will continue, peace deal or not.

A bad proposal

January 5th, 2012

Ever since he was ousted from power in a coup, Nawaz Sharif has been a reliable voice in the fight to keep the military out of matters that rightfully belong to civilians. Even though his party, the PML-N, was a creature of the military establishment back in Ziaul Haq’s days, it seems that now it is the only party willing to take on the might of the military. In that context, Nawaz Sharif’s vow to bring military courts to Karachi, if he comes into power, is doubly disappointing. Thankfully, Sharif’s proposal has been rejected and condemned by the PPP in Sindh and also been rubbished by the Supreme Court, despite the fact that the PML-N played a big role in helping restore the superior judiciary after Pervez Musharraf’s attacks on it. Sharif, who has been visiting Sindh a lot recently in an effort to try and make inroads in the province, apparently thought that the thirst for quick justice would lead to strong support for military justice. He has been proven wrong.

While relying on military justice is problematic in any case, this is doubly true for Karachi. Using the military to solve Karachi’s problems only exacerbates them. The MQM, for one, would never accept the presence of the military in what they consider to be their city if there was any chance that they would end up being targeted. The ANP and PPP, too, would have serious reservations about submitting their activists to military courts. While military courts may not be as disastrous as previous military operations in the city that is a very low threshold to cross. What makes the proposal even more curious is that it came at a time when Karachi is going through a period of relative calm. Nawaz Sharif, having had his rule curtailed twice before, should best understand the importance of building institutions and the rule of law. If he feels the judiciary has failed the people of Karachi, he needs to explain how it has done so and what can be done to get the process back on the right track. Simply using the military as a band-aid solution will not end the crisis; it will actually make it worse by eroding faith in civilian institutions.

Polio on the march

January 5th, 2012

A fourth case of polio reported last week from southern Punjab brought the total number of cases for 2011 close to 200. This compared to 144 cases for 2010, which is a disturbing increase in the incidence of the disease. As it is, Pakistan now ranks as the country where the largest numbers of polio cases have been discovered. Experts attribute this to poor administrative practices, poor coverage in conflict-hit areas and the mass movement of people every now and then.

The fact is that a significant number of children who have been paralysed by polio had indeed been vaccinated. This applies to the latest case in Vehari as well. The father of the one year old boy who can now no longer walk or crawl says that he had insured all the scheduled vaccines where administrated to his child. Other parents have told similar stories. Concern has also been expressed in the media about the quality of the vaccine and whether it truly works at all. The growing evidence that there may be problems is disturbing.

Worst of all, Pakistan appears to be losing its battle against a disease which most other countries around the world have been able to eradicate. Polio is endemic in only four countries: Afghanistan, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. This is shameful. A decade ago, Pakistan appeared to have been winning the war on polio. We are now quite obviously losing it. More and more children are struck down by the virus each year. The National Polio Emergency, declared early this year, seems to have had very little impact in stopping the spread. This is something we need to think about very seriously. We simply cannot afford a worsening of the situation. We already have polio in districts where it had not been known for years. We certainly do not want it to reach other places and to affect the lives of other families in such a negative fashion.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Upping the ante?

January 6th, 2012

The federal cabinet’s proposal on January 4 to amend the 1964 Promotion and Service Rules Act requiring that judges and generals, too, declare their assets, like all others drawing their salaries on the state exchequer, is an indication that the ongoing judiciary-government is not going to die down any time soon. This was occasioned by a private member’s bill on the issue of the declaration of assets, with the MNA claiming that the bill had nothing to do with the ongoing confrontation. In principle, this is a good step but the timing will be construed, at least by the superior judiciary, as well as the political opposition, as a case of the PPP-led government upping the ante. Two cases before the Supreme Court are at the root of this latest seeming escalation: the NRO case and the memogate petition, in which the military has filed affidavits considered hostile by the government. Assertions of non-confrontation withstanding, the proposed amendment is another step in the direction of the ongoing tussle between the judiciary and the executive. By lumping the judges and the generals together, the subliminal message tends to clarify who is ganging up against the PPP-led government.

On the face of it, there is nothing wrong in asking the judges and the generals to go through the process of accountability that the politicians are required to submit to. In fact, it seems that this inclusion was in abeyance and should have been carried out wisely when relations between the two pillars of the state were not so glaringly bad. Today, as the Gilani government feels the pressure from various quarters on the memogate affair, despite the fact that it has been unprecedentedly pliable to the strategic dominance of the military, it has decided to stand up to a challenge that bids fair to unseat it. At the popular level, the political implication of the continuing squabble between the institutions of the state is not lost sight of.

The superior judiciary began asserting itself towards the end of the Musharraf regime and this intensified under the PPP government which was tardy in restoring the apex court back to its pre-Musharraf suspension position. The policy flaw was apparent on the part of the PPP leadership because, the restoration of the judiciary had become a cause celebre with civil society demonstrating on behalf of the fired judges. The opposition PML-N took the populist position and became a champion of the restoration. When the Court returned, its activism escalated through the use of the suo motu jurisdiction; and the executive — partly because of its own failings and inability to deliver good governance — became the primary target. The Constitution gave the Court the jurisdiction to intervene and it did, gradually laying its activism open to interpretation — certainly from elements within the PPP or sympathetic to it — that it was lacking in restraint.

If India is any precedent in judicial activism, one must note that an activated higher judiciary during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s tenure in office has had the wisdom to tone down its earlier interventionist trend. But this did not happen without the tension and confrontation that was on the cards right from the beginning. Leading Indian lawyer, AG Noorani described it thus in an article he wrote in 2009: “A conference of chief ministers and chief justices of the high courts was held in New Delhi on August 16, which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the chief justice of India, Justice KG Balakrishnan, attended. At least, two of them expressed concern over the manner in which courts summoned senior government officers to appear in court over minor issues”. The judiciary-PPP quarrel has become politicised and this is not good for Pakistan. Everyone knows that the PML-N went to the Supreme Court as part of its new policy of dismantling the government before the PPP can obtain a majority in the Senate in March 2012. It must be said that the honourable Court has conducted itself carefully, strictly within the ambit of law, but down in the streets of Pakistan, the views are divided. Because of this, any punishment for contempt awarded to the recklessly outspoken members of the PPP will be interpreted politically, just as will be the latest resolve by the government to force the judges and generals to declare their assets.

Showing their true colours

January 6th, 2012

The very Taliban with whom the government believes good-faith negotiations are possible is now claiming to have killed 15 captured Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel. The FC men were captured during a security operation in Khyber Agency and even though the military says they haven’t received confirmation of their deaths, it was announced by a Taliban spokesman. This, needless to say, is not the action of an honourable enemy which follows the rules of war. Had the Taliban any interest in civilised conduct, it would have held the personnel until hostilities had ceased and then released them. That they executed the FC men is bad enough. What makes it even worse is that they did it at a time when the government is looking to compromise. Not that the executions should come as a surprise to anyone who is familiar with how the Taliban handles such situations. In 2007, the Taliban captured 300 Pakistani soldiers, whose release the military were so keen on ensuring that they freed over a hundred Taliban fighters as a goodwill gesture. In return, the Taliban released only 30 soldiers and killed three, mutilating their bodies after doing so. Previously, the Taliban has also released recordings of soldiers and policemen who were summarily executed by firing squad. By now, we should have learned that such wanton cruelty and brutality is the Taliban’s stock in trade. The thousands of soldiers who have been killed trying to defeat the militant menace deserve better.

After this, if we still insist that negotiations are the best course of action, talks should come with certain prerequisites. First among them should be an insistence that captured men on both sides will not be executed. Failure to abide by this should lead to an immediate end to talks. If the Taliban want to negotiate on an equal footing and have a ceasefire, then they must change their violent ways. Both sides have to give up something for talks to work; for the government it may mean accepting that their rule will be subordinate to the Taliban’s in the tribal areas while for the latter this means renouncing their terrorism tactics. Ultimately, though, the government must realise these talks will fail since the Taliban have shown no inclination to put down their swords.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Early elections

January 7th, 2012

For months now, the PPP government has been insisting that it will serve out its term despite pressure from the PML-N to hold early elections. Now, it looks like it might give in and that may not be a bad thing — both for the health of democracy in the country and for the PPP itself. What matters to the PPP above all is that the Senate elections go ahead either as scheduled or even ahead of schedule. This will ensure that no matter who wins the most seats in the National Assembly in the next general elections, the PPP will have a majority in the upper house, and will hold the post of chairman of the Senate, leaving the party a heartbeat away from the presidency. Early elections may also have the added benefit for the PPP of depriving Imran Khan and the PTI of the time they need to capitalise on the momentum of their recent rallies. It could also temporarily arrest the flood of defections towards the PTI. And if the PPP holds the elections right after the budget, it could point towards several pro-poor measures it has introduced in the budget while electioneering. Early elections may suit the PML-N too. It, perhaps more than the PPP, fears the PTI and would like elections to be held early. The PML-N can also take credit for early elections since it has been at the forefront of the movement to get the PPP out of power.

Ultimately, though, even if the PPP is resigned to the idea of early elections, we should not forget that the government’s hand was probably forced by the military establishment. From its dogged pursuit of the memogate scandal to what seems to be a whispering campaign against President Asif Ali Zardari and the PPP-led government, the decision to hold an early election, it could be argued, is something that the establishment would perhaps prefer. Of course, this implies that a democracy that has to bend to the wishes of the military is not very stable and secure to begin with. While that may be true, the future is perhaps not all that bleak — especially given that the events of the past few weeks have at least led to very vigorous debate in the media and increasingly on social media as well; much of it is cognisant of the precarious state that the civilian government finds itself in.

People at peril

January 7th, 2012

The kidnapping of a doctor working for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Quetta simply places more helpless people at peril. This has been the case each time an aid worker is kidnapped, the office of a humanitarian agency attacked or foreign teams working to deliver food, health care and other basic needs to people who have nothing at all targeted. Dr Khalil Diale was conducting aid work in Balochistan, delivering vital services to some of the most deprived persons in our land. He was abducted by unknown persons from a high-security neighbourhood when returning from his office. Like all ICRC workers, there was no security to protect him and he carried no weapons. The ICRC considers itself protected by its symbol, which carries a universal message of humanity at work. Clearly, there is no respect for this in the Pakistan of today.

Immediately after the incident, the ICRC has announced the closure of six field offices, including three based in the more remote areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Although it states this decision is not directly linked to Dr Diale’s kidnapping, there can be no doubt that such incidents make foreign aid agencies feel less secure and less able to operate in Pakistan. This is a tragedy, given how badly our country and people need the services expert aid workers are able to offer. Others have been targeted before in Quetta and in many other places. The result is more and more agencies have either shut down operations in the country or drastically reduced the scale of their work. There is, as yet, no clue as to whose hands the unfortunate Dr Diale, a British national, had fallen into. The ICRC spokesperson has said no claims for ransom have been made or other demands put forward. It is also clear that our security set-up is something of a disaster. Two years ago, the local UNHCR chief was abducted from precisely the same residential area. The lack of safety for aid workers will make lives of those people that they help, i.e. the impoverished and poor, even more miserable.

America’s election year

January 7th, 2012

In the end, it came down to just eight votes. Willard Mitt Romney, the frontrunner in the primary race for the Republican Party’s nomination for the US presidency finally eked out a win in Iowa, the first state to vote in the year-long process that Americans go through for choosing their president. That it came this close is a testament to just how skewed preferences have become at the right-wing of the US political spectrum. There was a time when Mitt Romney would have been the heir-apparent, coasting his way to a nomination for being one of the most moderate and electable candidates. Yet, he has been forced to disavow his single biggest policy achievement as the governor of Massachusetts — offering almost universal healthcare to the residents of the state — and forced to take on social positions that he very likely does not believe in. And even then, the Republican electorate spent months keeping him in second place to virtually every other candidate in the race. Indeed, the man whom Romney narrowly beat out is so despised by a wide segment of the US electorate that his name has been made synonymous with something that cannot be discussed in print. While our own politics is more than enough to keep most Pakistanis occupied, the complicated alliance with the United States means that the race for the American presidency matters to Pakistan. While none of the candidates vying to oppose President Barack Obama in November this year have any particular love for Pakistan, some have more dangerous ideas than others. Newt Gingrich, for instance, seems to see no nuance in the war on terrorism and sees it as an existential struggle between two religions.

For all his flaws, Mitt Romney is ultimately a political pragmatist. We cannot say with any certainty whether or not he will win the White House, or even his own party’s nomination. But we do expect him to calmly weigh policy options before making decisions about the US relationship with Pakistan. In this time of crisis, that is the best that we in Pakistan can hope for from an American politician.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The politics of ‘more provinces’

January 8th, 2012

PPP Senator Raza Rabbani, the moving spirit behind the 18th Amendment that gave more autonomy to the provinces, on January 6 poured cold water on the ferocious debate in the National Assembly about increasing the number of provinces in Pakistan. He quoted the Constitution and said: “The resolution for the creation of more provinces can only be brought before the National Assembly if passed by the provincial assembly with a two-thirds majority.” The PPP was all set to campaign for the creation of a Seraiki ‘suba’ (province) in south Punjab, and thought that any debate about it at the National Assembly would harm it. That has actually happened: its projected action at the Punjab Assembly to bring the ruling PML-N under pressure on the basis of the pro-Seraiki suba Muslim Leaguers from south Punjab, may have been adversely affected by this.

The MQM, trying to break out of the political straitjacket of Karachi and shake off renewed charges of wanting to create a secessionist Jinnahpur in Sindh, has pounced upon the devolutionary campaigns in south Punjab and Hazara to gain a foothold in national-level politics by championing more provinces. The reaction among south Punjabi Muslim Leaguers has been predictable: they want the ‘suba’ but not at the behest of the MQM which has yet to win a seat there. The MQM has also embraced the cause of Hazara Suba, forcing the ANP to use harsh words, including a reference to Jinnahpur, to remind everyone that the final decision will have to be taken at the provincial assembly where Pashtun nationalism will probably get a fillip at the cost of the sizable non-Pashtun population in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Predictably the Hazara suba movement — led by an unlikely octogenarian — has hit the streets in Abbottabad and blocked traffic to remind everyone that it was still alive.

There was further confusion over the possible repackaging of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) which the ANP has, at times, said should be amalgamated into Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The irony is that while the Eighteenth Amendment gives the right to create more provinces to the provincial assemblies — a kind of self-surgery of their jurisdictional strength — the creation of more provinces is considered a device of further devolution which is at the heart of the 18th Amendment.

The PML-N would not want a vivisection of Punjab but supports the Seraiki suba for fear of losing votes there. Yet it backs the Hazara suba. It says it is in favour of more provinces but not on linguistic-ethnic bases — which is the case in Seraiki and Hazara movements. The Seraiki province will be sizeable if it comes into being (comprising districts Mianwali, Bhakkar, Khushab, Jhang, Layyah and Muzaffargarh) with a total population close to 13 million. But the Hazara province (comprising Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Battagram, Kohistan) may be less viable because of its small population of 3.5 million. The Seraikis are equally distracted by a Bahawalpur suba movement (inclusive of Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan, etc.) which, if made, would cover an area with a population of around seven million. In India, the number of provinces has grown from 22 to 28 in recent years and there is a movement afoot in Andhra Pradesh to slice a Telangana province from it. It is generally accepted that devolution through new provinces is good for the local population because it brings governance closer to them. But in India, too, the demand must be channelled through the state assembly and Telangana is not getting the kind of support the Seraiki suba idea has among the southern Punjabis in Pakistan. In any case, in India even if there are 100 provinces, the average unit will still hold the population comparable to a country’s in Europe.

There are further ironies to consider: the provinces have demanded more autonomy on the principle of devolution but none of them is willing to devolve further by allowing local governments. Furthermore, the Eighteenth Amendment still has to bite in the shape of more resources from a centre that remains impoverished. The politics of ‘more provinces’ is based on sound principles, but apparently dishonest intentions. The debate will create more unrealistic expectations than the country is able to meet given its current battered state.

Mr Sharif on Balochistan

January 8th, 2012

In his latest incarnation as the scourge of the military, PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif has, at least in rhetoric, said what needs to be said on Balochistan. He continued in that vein during his visit to Quetta, unequivocally calling for an end to military operations in the province and the immediate release of all ‘missing’ people. Nawaz Sharif’s words should be welcomed, but with caution. Just about every political leader in the country has apologised to the people of Balochistan and promised to address their grievances, but none have managed to translate that into reality. Even Imran Khan, who has been accused of receiving support from the establishment, has taken a similar position on Balochistan.

As strong as Mr Sharif’s critique of the military’s role in Balochistan may be, it is somewhat tempered by the political reality that for every shot he takes at the military, he must also launch a broadside against the elected government. In Quetta he took the opportunity to criticise the Balochistan package announced by the government two years ago as inadequate. This was despite the fact that the PML-N chief’s solutions for the province are nearly identical to those proposed in the package. Had he felt the need to go after the government, he should have pointed out that the package had yet to be implemented rather than attack the package itself as flawed.

While this may not be the wisest thing to say while canvassing for votes in the province, Mr Sharif’s guise as an unvarnished truth-teller would have been further burnished had he tackled the problem of separatism in the province. The fact is that most political parties in Balochistan want nothing to do with the mainstream political process and are increasingly opting for violence over participation in everyday politics. As repressed as the Baloch people are, this is not going to help their cause for greater autonomy. And as a politician from Punjab, the PML-N chief could also have made the case for Punjabi settlers, many of whom have spent a lifetime in the province and work in fields like education, who are being targeted by separatists. This would have added weight to his overall message, rather than make him seem like yet another politician hoping to win parliamentary seats in the province.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga