A year of missed targets

June 1st, 2012

It should really come as no surprise that the government missed most of the macroeconomic targets that it had set for the fiscal year 2011-12 that has just ended. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, released by Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh on May 31, the main determinant of how a national economy is performing — the GDP growth rate — was 3.7 per cent, half a percentage point lower than the target of 4.2 per cent set by the government at the presentation of the budget for 2011-12 last year. Before delving into a closer look at these figures, it should be said that given the financial mess the country presently finds itself in, with chronic power cuts, poor law and order and a thoroughly inhospitable investment climate, the achievement of even a 3.7 per cent GDP growth rate would make some cynics question the authenticity of the figure itself.

As expected, one primary factor for the sluggish growth has been the very serious power shortage that has badly afflicted manufacturing and industry. The brunt of the prolonged power cuts and loadshedding has been felt in Punjab, especially its central and northern regions which, other than Karachi, have the bulk of the country’s industrial units and factories. This also suggests that factoring out the impact from the floods of August 2011 (which the Economic Survey says compelled a downward revision of GDP growth estimates), resolving the chronic energy crisis could significantly help in the achievement of robust growth. That said, what the government has done to tackle the power shortage in 2011-12 — zilch — does not provide any optimism for the coming year. By now, even lay observers know that a major reason for the power crisis is not necessarily that there isn’t enough installed generating capacity but rather that the arrears owed to power generation and distribution companies by their customers — the majority debtors being public sector bodies — are so high that the companies find it difficult to operate at full capacity. This is the oft-quoted issue of circular debt and nothing that the government had done in the outgoing fiscal year would make even its most ardent supporter think that it is serious about addressing this problem.

At his press conference, the finance minister spent considerable time talking about tax collection and the tax-to-GDP ratio, which is a key macroeconomic indicator and crucial to any government’s plans for socioeconomic development. The finance minister said what is already known, that its tax-to-GDP ratio is below 10 per cent — compared to between 13-18 per cent for most developing countries and dwelt at length on the need for people to pay their share of tax so that the country wouldn’t have to seek aid from foreign lending organisations or countries. This is a valid argument and one that needs to be made with increasing frequency. However, the problem lies in its realisation, due to the current government’s serious credibility issue, with many Pakistanis believing that they are being led by a regime made up mostly of corrupt individuals. Law and order is another issue which perhaps explains the significant decline in foreign investment in 2011-12.

As for inflation, the Economic Survey 2011-12 says that the figure was lower than that forecast for the year, and the finance minister did make it a point to tell the reporters assembled at the press conference, in a somewhat school master-like tone, that the best way to curb inflation was for the government to reduce its borrowing. These are — again — well-intentioned words but one would expect the government to act on them as well, and actually reduce its borrowing. That is precisely where, on matters of macroeconomic policy (and in fact policies in general), it has been found sorely lacking. To borrow a much-used cliché, but which is entirely apt in the case of Pakistan, the proof of the pudding is in the eating and that is something which will decide how 2012-13 will be any different financially, not just for the country’s economy but for ordinary Pakistanis in terms of the quality/standard of the lives that they lead.

Death of innocence

June 1st, 2012

There are an increasing number of youngsters in our country who will never receive their identity cards, never experience the thrill of drawing their first salary or the excitement of marriage or fatherhood. Not many will tell the full tale because in our society, suicides are covered up due to religious and cultural reasons. But the evidence that does exist indicates that the rate of despondency is so high in our country that it is affecting even the very young. At a time when optimism and exuberance should define their lives, they have nothing to look forward to.

Over the last four days, according to a shocking report in this newspaper, four teenage and pre-teenage boys took their own lives. Khursheed, 18, a student at the Islamabad Model College for Boys shot himself after being scolded by his father over some entry tests he had refused to sit for. In a similar incident a day earlier, Shan, 17, from Gharibabad killed himself after being asked by his parents not to spend time with friends. A grade seven student in Abbottabad chose to end his life rather than return to a hostel where he was reportedly ill-treated by staff, while according to a somewhat hazy report from Karachi, a 13-year-old took his life, possibly after failing his exams. The details are frightening. On the surface, these issues seem to be petty. Many of us have faced similar conflicts with parents though they are eventually washed away with time. That this was not the case for these children, who were ready to commit suicide, is terrifying — an act which is extraordinarily difficult in emotional terms even for adults. The HRCP report for this year also reports increased suicide amongst young girls.

So, what is happening? The issue needs to be explored, not ignored. We do not know how many more deaths of a similar nature have occurred. Is the despondency and desperation of people sinking down to children? Are they picking up on the emotional and social anxieties of their parents? Certainly, this appears to be the case. Action is required to face up to the problem by providing — or exercising the use of existing — helplines to teenagers in need of support.

Budgeting for 2012-13

June 2nd, 2012

Perhaps, the one thing that the ruling PPP can fairly claim with some degree of justification is that its elected government managed to present its fifth and final budget to parliament. That said, there isn’t much room for any optimism, certainly not for the average Pakistani who is primarily concerned about a) having a job that helps make him/her ends meet, b) that his/her income rises at least at the same rate as prices and c) that he/she can afford a decent lifestyle for self and family. In that, the fact that the budget presented by Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh was the fifth one, or not, doesn’t really make any difference to most Pakistanis since they would mostly be interested in what it offers them. Considering that context, it is worth reminding that basically the budget speech and documents are more or less the government’s intention of what it intends to do during the coming fiscal year, in this case 2012-13. Hence, to the lay observer, they are bound to be intangible and abstract because the average person doesn’t really understand what fiscal policy, or monetary policy for that matter, is. And here lies the job of the government of the day in translating this intent into something beneficial for the greatest number of citizens — and that should be the yardstick of judging any budget.

A closer look at the allocations and targets suggests that some are overly optimistic. For instance, tax collection is estimated to rise to give a tax-to-GDP ratio of 10.1 per cent for 2012-13. However, given that it currently stands at around nine per cent, and that no appreciable changes have been made in the way taxes are collected in the country, expecting this figure to be realised is perhaps, expecting a bit too much. Furthermore, the finance minister said that the issue of circular debt would be resolved “whatever the cost” and this means that the government may have to spend hundreds of billions more to sort out this mess, thereby increasing the fiscal deficit. In his speech, he didn’t give any specific figure for this so this issue will remain to be one on which the government, and in particular Mr Sheikh, can expect some tough questioning in the coming days and weeks. As for the budget allocations, there is no substantial difference compared to recent years, with defence, debt servicing and the running of the government continuing to take up the bulk of the expenditure. For a country that has a very low literacy level, poor healthcare facilities and which ranks very low on various human development indicators, to spend the bulk of its resources on defence and debt serving is close to calamitous and it is a shame that no effort has been made to change this in any significant way.

As for the Annual Development Plan for 2012-13, the GDP is estimated to grow by 4.3 per cent, up significantly from the 3.7 per cent record for 2011-12. How this will be achieved, given that the state of the economy is not good and no tangible measures have been taken to turn things around, has not been explained — surely the finance minister doesn’t think that hope and good intentions alone will help achieve this? The government will have to make some clear policy changes in certain areas, such as in resolving the chronic energy shortfall, so that the economy’s full operating capacity can be harnessed, and in tackling the issue of militancy and terrorism head on, so that investment and the business climate can both improve.

The budget document for any government is a plan for running/managing the economy for the coming fiscal year, in a way that benefits the greatest number of citizens. Perhaps, the best way to measure this is the change in income per capita along with upward movement in various social indicators. While the former may be rising, albeit gradually, as far as the latter are concerned, Pakistan continues to do poorly, and things will not improve until and unless are exhibited the political will to a) reduce expenditure on debt servicing, b) cut back on the cost of running the government and c) divert resources from making weapons and cruise missiles to building schools, hospitals, colleges, clinics, water and sanitation distribution networks and so on. On that, Pakistan still has a long way to go.

Safeguarding human rights

June 2nd, 2012

President Asif Ali Zardari’s decision to sign a law passed by parliament forming a National Human Rights Commission is, at first glance, a welcome move. The commission will be headed by an experienced judge; will have both minority and women members and have the power, like every court, to take suo motu actions on human rights abuses. All of these moves are to be lauded but it becomes difficult to support this commission when one realises that it has carved out an exemption for the military, which may well defeat the purpose of such legislation. The commission does not have the authority to investigate the intelligence agencies, instead having to refer any possible human rights violation pinned on them to “the competent authority concerned”.

From abductions, torture and murder in Balochistan to accusations of brutality in the fight against militancy, the intelligence agencies have been implicated in many violations of human rights in the country. Even now, there are many who think that they were involved in the gruesome death of Saleem Shahzad. Exempting them from the jurisdiction of the human rights commission only confirms our worst fears: there is one set of rules for the military in this country and another for everyone else. Already, the superior judiciary has been accused of taking action only against the civilian government while taking an easier stance on the establishment. Now, a new commission with the powers of a court has this double standard written into the very law that created it.

Other than that, there is one minor objection to the formation of the National Human Rights Commission. Courts already have the power to investigate human rights abuses but now the commission will be able to take over court cases if it so desires. That may end up causing a legal jumble, with no one sure which court has ultimate authority and how judgments of the commission can be appealed. In its haste to be seen as taking action in favour of human rights, the government may have ended up passing a law that, while positive on the whole, has too many loopholes to be truly effective.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

An isolated Pakistan

June 3rd, 2012

Speaking in Karachi on May 31, President Asif Ali Zardari said that “disengagement with the world was not a democratic option”. In the next breath, however, he asked “the international community to also take Pakistan’s domestic compulsions and national interest into account when taking stock of the country’s role in efforts against extremism and terrorism”. He then explained why Pakistan painted itself into a corner at the Chicago Summit: the government had to change the policy decision of opening the Nato supply route “because the Salala incident had necessitated a review”.

Pakistan first played up the Salala incident and demanded an apology, but when it got close to getting one, the ‘honour’ hype overwhelmed the country. Parliament took its time deciding what to do, while the politicians fulminated against the US and encouraged the media dogs to unleash themselves. Where did the “democratic option” go then? Thereafter, other unanticipated factors intervened: US President Barack Obama got sensitised over the apology in the midst of his re-election campaign; and the Pentagon’s disagreement over his Pakistan policy became intense. The Pakistan Army, seeing the aggressive approach of the US to the renegotiated rates of the supply route, has now allowed the American trainers — it had kicked out in a moment of dudgeon — to return.

Isolation is something that a state has to think about as a cornerstone of its approach to the world. This, in turn, depends on an objective assessment of the state’s importance in the international community. Any ‘outward’ approach will also depend on these ‘inward’ factors: the state of the national economy and the state of law and order. When considering these factors, a country is forced to change its stance and embrace realism. Pakistan is not like Iran and cannot afford to roar like a lion when, unlike Iran, it is sunk in a colossal energy deficit. After the national paroxysm against ‘unfair’ treatment, Pakistan is now realising that there is a limit to how much it can go on playing the “frontline state” card and telling the world it cannot move an inch on Afghanistan unless Pakistan’s spoiler’s role is recognised and it is accordingly appeased.

Whether we like it or not, Pakistan has prospered when it avoided isolation or was placed in a non-isolationist situation by happenstance during the Cold War. By going jihadi and nuclear at the same time it now puts a lot of store by ‘honour through isolation’. Just look back and see the pattern of past behaviour: after the Cold War ended, Pakistan was most at risk of clutching at isolationism for emotional satisfaction. The success of General (retd) Pervez Musharraf during his ‘high growth’ tenure occurred in sectors where Pakistan was linked to the outside world. In 1998, the country fell into a trough of global isolation after conducting the nuclear test. Despite promises of assistance from friends in the Middle East, Pakistan was soon faced with default and prospects of what was then termed a ‘failed state’. Breaking out of a period of isolation, which included turning off the tap of jihad and normalising relations with India, Pakistan embarked on a foreign policy that helped its economy to rise from its dangerously low growth rate to reach its highest growth rates by 2005. All that, of course, is now reinterpreted as a ‘phase of Pakistan’s slavery’.

Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar tried to break out of this latest phase of lethal isolation by saying that Pakistan was faced with alienating, not only the US, but also scores of other nations taking part in the Nato operation in Afghanistan and that Pakistan could not afford to offend them all. But then, the PPP got scared of offending the ‘nation’ on the eve of another election, which it hopes to win despite its abysmal governance. It has plumped for a warlike gesture of national honour. President Zardari should know that elections cannot be won through false bravado and by ignoring the economic plight of the people. No one is going to vote for the incumbent government just because it stood up on its hind legs and snarled at the rest of the world.

June 3rd, 2012

As the government is criticised by the opposition parties for presenting another budget that does not do enough for the most vulnerable segments of society, it is worth remembering that there is a huge swathe of the budget that is simply not under the control of the civilians. Out of a total budget of Rs2.96 trillion, Rs643 billion will be spent on defence and another Rs926 billion on debt servicing. Before the government can even begin to try and implement its preferred policy prescriptions, over half the budget is simply out of its purview and allocated to the two actors that dwarf the power of the civilian government: the military and foreign lenders.

As troubling as the size of the defence budget is, what is truly worrying is how the money is allocated without any accountability for how it will be spent. In the days ahead, as the budget is debated by all political actors, very little light will be shed on what the defence budget is being used for and whether it needs to be this high in the first place. One of the few benefits of having a nuclear deterrent was that it would put us on a relatively even keel with our far bigger and wealthier neighbour to the east and we could give up trying to compete with it on the defence budget. That has not happened because the army still feels entitled to an inordinately large share of the budget and does not feel the need to justify its use to the civilians.

Then there is the challenge posed by debt re-servicing. Pakistan has not been very successful in convincing other countries to forgive most of its debt, but then that is a luxury we scarcely deserve since we keep coming back for more aid, loans and handouts. What is truly troubling is that one of the reasons the debt re-servicing bill is so high is that we want to assure the IMF that loan repayments are high on our agenda so that we can procure another costly loan in the coming financial year. Between the military and the IMF, it seems, there is little room in the budget for the people of Pakistan.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Is a ‘revolution’ brewing in Punjab?

June 4th, 2012

Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has decided to join the people of his province to protest against power outages by the PPP-led government at the centre. All over the province, more and more cities are subject to protest demonstrations by citizens tormented by an average of 12-hour power outage daily. In Lahore, he wanted to give a fillip to the growing unrest by shifting his office to the grounds of Minar-e-Pakistan on June 1. His intent could be to intensify the unrest into some kind of uprising. Since he has been talking about “revolution”, it is possible that he wants to start a movement in the country’s largest province — population-wise — to bring down the federal government. His remedy for ending the energy crisis is quite straightforward: “The money swindled in the National Reconciliation Ordinance case, the National Insurance Company Limited land scam, the rental power case, the Hajj scam and the extravagant spending of the government could be used to curb the growing power crisis”. If the government takes these measures, it would have to pack up and go home after which there will be no guarantee that it would escape the hunting down of its leaders, as per the past practice of ‘accountability’. One may ask: why should the PPP government leave office and open itself to revenge at the hands of all sorts of elements that want President Zardari and his close affiliates — “Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves” — back in prison?

The Punjab chief minister is not too much out of sync with his elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, who has pledged a Long March against the federal government. The chief minister’s friend Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has been firing his volleys in the National Assembly for some time, in a way, acting as the frontline bellwether of the PML-N as well as giving an aggressive direction to the party. There was a time when one could say that Nawaz Sharif was not too inclined to unleash protest and violence as political strategy. If there was a polarity between the two brothers about strategy, it is now virtually over with the party hawks gaining the upper hand under the aggressive tutelage of Shahbaz Sharif.

Two developments must be noted in the move of the PML-N: a gradual reconciliation with the army, a steady support to the ‘independent’ judiciary and a convergence with the non-state actors of Punjab. Add to this, the ingredient of ‘revolution’ and you have the contours of how the PML-N wants to shorten the days of the PPP in power. Shahbaz Sharif has been known to meet the army chief to feel the pulse of any toppling plans in tandem with ‘selfless’ devotion to the Supreme Court subjecting the federal government to legal scrutiny. The other strand in the strategy comprises change of policy on non-state actors and banned jihadi organisations and pitting them against the PPP in South Punjab.

In February 2010, local newspaper Daily Islam reported that Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah visited Jhang and paid his respects at the grave of the founder of the Sipah-e-Sahaba, Maulana Haq Nawaz Jhangvi. He led a delegation of the PML-N which also included parliamentary secretary Iftikhar Baloch and an MPA from Jhang, Sheikh Yaqub. He visited the grave of other Sipah-e-Sahaba leaders such as Maulana Isarul Qasmi and Azam Tariq. The same month, a national newspaper reported that the party saw no harm in seeking the banned outfit’s blessing for votes in the PP-82 constituency.

But the “revolution” may not be to the advantage of the PML-N. In 1999, Nawaz Sharif was nearly killed as a result of an explosive device placed by the Sipah-e-Sahaba on the road to his residence in Raiwind. Also the infamous Riaz Basra got himself photographed standing next to Mr Sharif without the latter knowing it. In 2002, he was buried wrapped in a Sipah-e-Sahaba flag. Today, a Sipah franchise Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is a wing of al Qaeda and actively involved in killing Shias in the country. Therefore, the “revolution” may not punish the PPP and bring the PML-N to power. It may bring al Qaeda closer to ruling Pakistan.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Who doesn’t want peace?

June 5th, 2012

The outgoing defence minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar is known for telling the unvarnished truth on subjects rendered sacrosanct by ideology and geostrategy. His latest alleged gem (since he vehemently denied it soon afterward) came after he had made the following statement to BBCUrdu.com: both Pakistan and India would stand to benefit from resolving the Siachen issue. When asked who prevented the two from resolving the Siachen issue, he stunned the media by rejoining: “the hurdle is the armies of both countries”.

He further said that neither Pakistan nor India stood to gain anything from the stand-off on the world’s highest battle-ground; rather it pandered to the respective egos of the two states, while it is possible that the conflict would cost both sides dearly in terms of their peoples’ welfare. He also said something that “cut both ways” in his typically nonchalant impartial manner: “India wants to talk on the Sir Creek issue first, we want to talk about Siachen first — the same issue of egos”.

The following day, the minister, who now holds the portfolio of the ministry of water and power, denied that he had said anything of the sort, saying that he had been misquoted. Even if that were the case, the fact is that the reason that issues such as Siachen or Sir Creek are left unresolved, or that the recent planned visa agreement between the two countries is now in limbo, is because powerful vested interests on both sides do not want permanent peace. These may be institutions or elements in certain institutions with significant backing from like-minded individuals/groups.

The reality, whether one admits it or not, is that in Pakistan, it is the military which — still — calls the shots on policies related to India. Even the case of the issue of Most-Favoured Nation status, which is an important development and should help strengthen bilateral ties is being prolonged, because the military establishment is on board. The implication in this context also is that it will be the military who will decide what is to be done with Siachen. Of course, one should also be reminded of the situation in India where the reality is more or less the same, with the Indian Army often saying that it will never withdraw from Siachen on its own. Reports in the Indian media indicate that Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh is keen to have this and other issues resolved but that a hawkish civil-military establishment, led presumably by some of his own advisers, is resisting this and wants to make an example of Pakistan, especially following the Mumbai attacks of 2008.

The truth, regardless of what Mr Mukhtar actually said, is that the armies of India and Pakistan are in the way. The Indian point of view is that the two sides should sign off on the present positions and then redeploy, which means “climb down from the high mountain peaks”. Pakistan favours climbing down without signing off because any document on positions would legitimise India’s deployment on Siachen. On both sides, the armies are dictating terms but there are differences of approach that must be pointed out.

The Indian government is under pressure from public opinion which is quite strongly anti-Pakistan. Indian public opinion is negative because of the terrorist activity of the Pakistani non-state actors inside India. We could dismiss it as state propaganda which has seeped into the public mind, but the truth is that the entire world is of the same opinion. In Pakistan, things are different. Credit is due to PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif for saying that the Pakistan Army should withdraw from Siachen unilaterally. Sections of the mainstream media here reacted with disapproval over Mr Sharif’s ‘unilateral’ suggestion after the army chief negated it.

The real issue is who bleeds more? Pakistan certainly, because of its faltering economy, which is much smaller compared to India’s and which is growing at a much slower rate as well. We know that we have to make the move, not so much for the honour of the military top brass as for the well-being of ordinary Pakistanis.

Age of barbarity

June 5th, 2012

According to news trickling down from the mountain district of Kohistan in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), four women and one man may have been killed after being captured on video dancing with non-mehram men at a wedding. As often happens from parts as distant as these, the reports are conflicting. But an informant, who first broke the news of a jirga verdict against the women and two men, ordering that they be punished, now says five women have in fact been killed by their own families. The district administration firmly denies this and says two of the women pictured in the footage are home with their husbands in Mansehra and Muzaffarabad and the other two are with their families in Kohistan. The district police chief says that the women are safe; four men have been booked and will be brought to justice. It is hard to know what to believe. For outsiders it is almost impossible to verify what sequence of events took place in the village of Palas, where all this is said to have occurred. Police also claim the video was circulated mischievously and that the person behind this act is being tracked down. This all has eventually forced the Supreme Court to step in with the local police chief ordered to present all the women under threat in court on June 6.

While all this is relevant, even more crucial than the details is the question of why such barbarity continues in our State. Why have officials not been able to place the women in a safe environment as suggested by NGOs? Why do jirga continue to mete out sentences that defy humanity and shock people the world over? We need to ascertain what the fate of those five unfortunate women has been. But even more crucially, we need to find some way to put an end to such incidents and prevent more from occurring. There have been far too many in the past few years. We are not becoming a more civilised race, but rather more backward. This is disturbing. The authorities in Kohistan district and KP must take stronger notice of what happened and ensure that the culprits are apprehended and punished. Also awareness needs to be spread on such issues to prevent further such incidents.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

No conspiracies, please

June 6th, 2012

Everyone knows that separatist feeling is on the rise in Balochistan, thanks mainly to the action of the military and paramilitary forces, who have been accused of picking up, torturing and killing Baloch activists. Being able to solve this problem, however, has proved beyond the abilities of civilian politicians. During a visit to Quetta, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani concentrated on incidental matters, talking about more government jobs for Baloch and a greater share of the National Finance Commission Award. While such steps are laudable on their own, they do very little to address the sense of alienation that the people of Balochistan feel. At a time when the entire province is on the verge of exploding, Gilani should have done more to address the question of separatism.

Soon after coming into power, the prime minister announced a Balochistan package that while not perfect, went further in addressing the deep-seated problems of the Baloch people than any previous proposal. It called for a military withdrawal from the province, an end to ‘disappearances’ and a negotiated settlement. It also aimed to rectify the deprivation in the province and tried to fix the inequality between Balochistan and other provinces. Needless to say, the package was dead on arrival. As the government is on the verge of completing its first term, there is nothing it has been able to do to ensure the implementation of its own much-trumpeted package.

Instead, the prime minister is now trying to deflect blame for the situation in Balochistan on outside forces and foreigners, who are allegedly trying to take control of the resources in the province, echoing the head of the FC, who had blamed foreign powers for the insurgency. This has always been a convenient excuse for those who have no intention of doing anything about Balochistan. Rather than look at ourselves and realise that we are the ones responsible for convincing the Baloch people they will be better off without us, we prefer to see conspiracies in our midst.

Another suspension

June 6th, 2012

After Farahnaz Ispahani’s National Assembly membership was suspended by the Supreme Court for holding dual nationality, it was inevitable that others would face the same punishment. Such has been the case for Interior Minister Rehman Malik, whose membership in the Senate has been suspended, although he will continue as the de facto interior minister by being appointed as an adviser to the prime minister. The Supreme Court suspensions may seem to be overly harsh but there can be no arguing the fact that dual nationals have been barred by law from serving in parliament. In the case of Ms Ispahani, she commendably and honestly admitted in court that she holds American citizenship, while Malik has denied holding a British passport although he was unable to satisfy the Court that he was telling the truth.

It is disturbing that both the parliamentarians, who have had their membership suspended — so far — are from the PPP. However, here have been whispers about others holding dual nationality in the opposition parties, too, and it is time that the Supreme Court investigated this so that the impression that it is singling out a particular party is dispelled. Besides, rather than pursuing such cases, where the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court is questioned, it may be wiser for the justices to try and clear up the thousands of cases that are gathering dust.

Ultimately, though, matters such as these should be investigated by the Election Commission (EC), and not the Supreme Court. It is the EC which should find out if any parliamentarian lied on the papers they filed and then decide on the appropriate punishment as defined by the Constitution. With general elections approaching, a stronger, more independent EC would help solve not only the dual nationality issue but also inspire confidence in the electorate at a time when its independence is greatly needed. The two cases, both, involving the PPP MPs, suggests an ominous turn again towards a confrontation between the judiciary and the PPP-led executive. One sign of this is the re-designation of Rehman Malik as adviser following his suspension. This confrontation must be avoided.

Highway horrors

June 6th, 2012

At least 30 people died in a horrible bus accident on the Kahuta Road. The incident took place on June 4, when a bus carrying around a hundred people was headed to the village of Chakwal after a wedding. Those who died included the brothers of the bridegroom, their wives and children, while another 58 people are reported to be injured. Police are attributing the crash to ‘brake failure’. However, the real cause — which in such accidents is almost always the same — is unknown and can easily be because of poor maintenance of the vehicle, an under-qualified or overworked driver, or merely reckless driving.

More people have died on our roads than we can keep track of. There are some indications that the number may be more than those killed in bomb blasts or other terrorist attacks. It is a fact that our roads have become death traps, with people unable to escape the accidents that occur again and again through no fault of their own. With the absolute collapse of railway industry, passengers have little option but to use coaches, buses and vans that run along the highways.

What we lack is adequate regulations to deal with the matter. There is no effective system in place for checking the driving licenses or skills of those who drive public transport vehicles. It is common knowledge that most drivers do not even possess driving licenses. In other cases, tired drivers have handed over their bus to conductors or others on board who have even less experience on such dangerous roads. Rash driving is a well-established problem too, with drivers entering into races simply to kill boredom. The end result of this rather morbid short-term thrill is the death of those on board. We need to devise a mechanism to patrol our roads better, regulate buses and vans and ensure these are not converted into killing machines. We have seen a joyful occasion turned into a tragedy for the entire family. We must not allow this to happen on our roads.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

On testing missiles

June 7th, 2012

The balancing act governments have to carry out between national security needs and caring for the welfare of the people is termed as a choice between spending on guns and butter. In Pakistan, the scales are weighted so heavily in favour of guns that our need for butter barely registers in the national debate. In this year’s budget, Rs545 billion were allocated for defence (and much more than that if military pension are counted), a number that dwarfs the amount spent on social services. Just a few days later, we got a demonstration of what this money is being spent on as Pakistan tested its fifth nuclear-capable missile in a month and a half. This latest test was of the Hatf-VII cruise missile, which can deliver a one-ton nuclear warhead and whose testing is being framed as a response to India’s launching of the Agni-V missile.

The problem for Pakistan is that India, which also allocates an inordinate amount of money to defence in its budget, can afford such shows of strength. We are going through an extraordinary economic crisis, one that should lead to some introspection and a temporary moratorium on the military showing off its shiny new toys. India is already well aware that we possess nearly 100 nuclear weapons which can penetrate deep into Indian territory, should we so desire. With this nuclear deterrent in place, we can afford to cut down our addiction to weaponry and spend more of our resources on trying to fix the power crisis and spend greater amounts on health and education.

It is also not immediately apparent why we need to test so many missiles at a time when relations with India are on the mend. Instead we should be taking advantage of a peace dividend and spending less money on military weapons. The military has become so used to its perks and privileges that it is unable to see that the government needs to prioritise the economic recovery right now. With nearly another trillion rupees going into debt servicing, the military needs to free some money up for our other, more pressing needs. Of course, the elected government, notwithstanding the reality of the power matrix in Pakistan, needs to be more assertive in allocating a bigger chunk to social development spending.

Dialogue with the EU

June 7th, 2012

Pakistan’s need to generate more resources is closely tied to its ability to improve its image and standing in the international community. This was made clear during the strategic dialogue conducted with the EU in Islamabad on June 5. The EU team was led by its foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, while the Pakistani side was led by Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar. While dialogue was reportedly held in a cordial environment, things as they stood were made quite clear. The EU has said that Pakistan’s request for duty-free access for its goods to the markets of the powerful 27-member bloc of nations will only be met once the country will improve its human rights record, including the abolishment of the death penalty.

In other words, it is becoming clear that Pakistan’s image in the world is having an extremely adverse impact on its ability to forge ahead in various areas. A kind of ‘unsaid’ moratorium has been placed on the death penalty since 2008, which is when the PPP government first came to power and no one has been hanged since. Pakistan ranks among the few countries of the world to still retain the death penalty. The issue of doing away with it is a delicate matter, given religious sensibilities, but as human rights activists have suggested, it may be wise to at least initiate some kind of discussion on the matter so that progress can be made and a decision reached.

There are also other key human rights issues to tackle. Hina Rabbani Khar stated the matter had indeed come up during the dialogue, without offering too much detail. Pakistan’s inability to improve the plight of women, minorities and other vulnerable groups is not something that endears it to the world. We need to look more urgently at some means to improve the situation and, thereby, improve our standing in the eyes of the international world. The EU has made the need for this change to occur quite clear during the discussions in Islamabad and it would serve Pakistan well to pay heed to this advice.

Threat to Asma Jahangir’s life

June 7th, 2012

Prominent lawyer, human rights activist, ex-Supreme Court Bar Association president and former UN rapporteur, Asma Jahangir, is having to seek protection for her life after being made aware of a plan to assassinate her. With her well-established reputation as an outspoken advocate for the rights of women, minorities and others, Ms Jahangir has faced death threats before. However, this time around there appears to be a more sinister dynamic to the whole affair. Ms Jahangir, who has also been a vocal critic of the military’s control over the civilian government, has blatantly pointed the finger and stated that this plan to kill her has been hatched at the very top level, comprising secret agencies and their backers. She has implied this on other occasions when referring to the murdered journalist Saleem Shahzad — who was killed last year — as an illustration of what can happen to persons who anger the ‘establishment’.

Ms Jahangir has made the threats known to the bar association, which has informed the government. Rangers have been deployed outside her Lahore home and the lawyer has said she has asked the government to offer security steps advised to her by foreign experts. She has also made it clear she will not leave the country, as is expected of those facing such threats and as others in the country, perhaps not made of the same mettle have done in the past.

The situation reflects the tragedy of our country. What we need today is more voices to speak out against such abhorrent actions. Until this happens tragedies and interventions in civilian rule, such as those seen in the past will continue. The silencing dissent through threats and bullets is intended to ensure this. We must all act to prevent such an outcome by refusing to remain quiet and exhibiting the kind of courage Ms Jahangir has, and is, demonstrating. By doing so she has upheld her loyalty to the country and has exposed the extent to which certain institutions will stoop to pave an easier path for themselves.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Women and the jirga

June 8th, 2012

The Supreme Court hearing into the alleged killing of five women in Kohistan by a tribal jirga for the ‘crime’ of singing and dancing at a wedding in the alleged company of men has become quite the controversy. Till recently, the Court had been unable to verify whether the women were killed or not, or whether the jirga ever gave the order in the first place. The fault here does not lie with the Court, which has been pursuing the case vigorously in order to get the truth out of local officials. It is, in fact, these officials who are to blame since they claimed that the women were not killed but retreated into stony silence when asked if they had seen them.

This stony silence on the part of the officials prompted the Supreme Court into sending a fact-finding mission to determine if the women had indeed been killed. It has been discovered that the mission was able to meet two of the girls in the Sertay village of Kohistan. Thankfully, they bore no signs of torture and were reported to have been “happy with their families”. However, it is important to confirm the fate of the other three girls as soon as possible as one of the brothers of the two men who were dancing with the five women in the video, had earlier insisted that the women had been killed on the orders of the jirga. Even if all the girls are ultimately found to be alive and safe, this case raises a lot of questions about the concept of ‘honour’ in our society. Dancing at weddings is a common Pakistani tradition and the idea that these women dishonoured their families by singing and dancing is a ridiculous assertion. For some reason, we have also decided that it is only women, and never men, who dishonour their families. Those who issued murder verdicts against these women must be given exemplary punishment.

It is also unacceptable that the remoteness of Kohistan and tribal tradition means that the writ of the state does not extend there. Jirgas exist outside the conventions of the law and if there is anyone who should be punished, it must be those who insist on conducting them. Each judgment of a jirga is inherently illegitimate. It is time to take action against this unjust and backward system of tribal justice and bring every Pakistani under the legitimate law of the state.

Untangled interests

June 8th, 2012

The case involving Arsalan Iftikhar Chaudhry and his dubious dealings with the chief executive of Bahria Town, Malik Riaz, took a sudden turn on the morning of June 7, where rather sensibly, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry — who up till now had in a rather extraordinary decision been heading the bench himself — stated that he will be recusing himself from the case. This complies with advice given on an earlier occasion as well from the attorney general of Pakistan. The CJ himself must also be familiar with Article IV of a September 2009 Supreme Court notification, which clearly states that a judge should not be hearing cases which involve close relatives as it constitutes a clash of interests. More neutral persons will now be permitted to determine the facts in what promises to be a complex case. The CJ’s timely move averts a huge controversy; Arsalan has also been evicted from his father’s house in a move which, at least symbolically speaking, sends out the right message even though there must be some doubt as to whether it means very much in actual terms.

As the hearing continues, there is a good chance that a Pandora’s box will open up. Television anchors have already given evidence before the Court, detailing what they know of the matter. There have been insinuations that Arsalan was deliberately framed, mainly to malign the CJ. This makes it all the more imperative that he remove himself from the case. The details that come out are not likely to be pleasant. It is hard to believe, as claimed by Arsalan that he knew nothing about the bribes allegedly given to him and saw the whole matter only as a business deal. The CJ’s son has also been involved in some dubious dealings in the past, which does not strengthen his case.

Given Malik Riaz’s reputation, more people are likely to become involved in the sordid affair. It would do everyone good if this matter is resolved in a manner complying strictly with the codes and ethics entailed in the Constitution.

A miserable life

June 8th, 2012

The sight outside the Karachi Press Club on June 6 was a horrific one. A 40-year-old man named Khalid Mehmood, dressed in a crisp white shirt and black trousers, set himself ablaze after distributing pamphlets that stated that “Aslam and Razzak were responsible for his death”. Shocked spectators, passerbys and some journalists tried to save Mehmood but they appear to have failed in their efforts. Doctors at the Civil Hospital, where he was immediately whisked away, said that there is very little chance he will survive since 97 per cent of his body is inflicted with burns.

This act of self-immolation is unusual; unlike others, it does not involve a very poor man unable to put food on the table. Mehmood took this drastic measure after incurring a hefty debt, which he could not pay back. Belonging to a middle class family, he had reportedly borrowed a large sum of money from the two men he mentioned in his note and owed them over a million in interest. The inability to pay them back had apparently resulted in the men threatening to “kill him and take over his house”. There is no third party — otherwise known as a court of law — for people like Mehmood to turn to when faced with a dire situation. Neither is the economic situation in the country conducive to business ventures and others, too, have failed to set up enterprises, which can bring in money. We assume Mehmood also fell into the trap, which is seen to be engulfing more and more people in our country.

Today, it is not only the poverty-stricken who face trying times. The white-collar middle class is also stricken. In the past, banks and credit card companies have been responsible for harassing those who owe them money and sometimes they, too, have driven people to take extreme measures like suicide. This time, unknown private individuals are apparently responsible. The full story is still to unfold but it is undoubtedly a tragic tale, which leaves another scar on the country that is Pakistan.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Our interests in Afghanistan

June 9th, 2012

While we are fighting the Pakistani Taliban and sacrificing a tremendous amount of blood in doing so, we are, at the very least, ignoring the Haqqani Network, which primarily carries out attacks in Afghanistan. After years of diplomatic inquiries and suggestions that we may want to consider the Haqqani Network a threat as well, the US finally reacted harshly in the form of a speech given by Defence Secretary Leon Panetta in Kabul. Panetta said that the US is “reaching the limits of our patience” with Pakistan and urged it to deny the Haqqani Network a safe haven in North Waziristan.

For the US, stymieing the Haqqani Network is vital to its plans for withdrawing from Afghanistan by 2014. The only way the US can leave the country without having to admit defeat is if violence in Afghanistan is significantly reduced. Pakistan, however, sees things differently. By keeping the Haqqani Network operational, it thinks it can both counteract Indian influence in Afghanistan and get a seat in the post-US Afghan government that it expects to be dominated by the Taliban. We need to realise how unwise this plan is. It is essentially a rerun of our Afghan policy of the 1980s and 1990s, when the same flawed logic brought us lots of guns, drugs and refugees but little security while destroying the nation of Afghanistan.

Pakistan certainly has a case when it tells the US that it does not have enough troops at its disposal to fight the Haqqani Network in what would surely be a long and bloody battle in North Waziristan. But the problem is that the military is perceived by many, especially the rest of the world, as being hand-in-glove with the Haqqani Network, through its intelligence agencies. The thinking is that this is done as part of the — very flawed and now discredited — policy of ‘strategic depth’. The end result is that we are not only making it harder for peace to take hold in Afghanistan, we are also harming our own interests because the rest of the world does not believe us when we say we are innocent of any interference. Our narrow interest in having more influence than India in Afghanistan should not trump the greater interests of the world.

Avoidable deaths

June 9th, 2012

Seven newborns have died even before they embarked on the journey called life. The tragedy, which has left parents and families devastated, occurred at a government-run hospital in Lahore, where a fire broke out after an air-conditioner installed in the nursery short-circuited. Oxygen panels installed right below the cooling unit then burst into flames. Apart from the seven infants who died, 16 suffered injuries of various kinds.

This is not where the true tragedy starts. The fact is that there were fire extinguishers installed in and near the ward. They could have been used to douse the flames to save lives — except that no one on the staff knew how to operate them. Such laxity in the most basic safety procedures is simply unforgivable.

The extinguishers are not just meant for cosmetic effect. It is essential that persons on the premises know how to use them and everyone working at one of the largest hospitals in the city receive training in this regard over the course of time. The fact that this did not happen has left us with seven deaths that could have been avoided. According to reports, six of the babies died instantly; the seventh sometime later, as a result of smoke inhalation.

The problem with this highly non-serious attitude towards fire prevention exists everywhere. We see rusted extinguishers installed in buildings and emptied buckets, which once contained sand lying elsewhere.

This is true not only for private plazas and offices but also for government buildings. This situation is an unacceptable one. Far better safety measures are required, especially at hospitals, where the lives of helpless people are at stake. The chief minister has visited the ward and we can expect some disciplinary action. That is the usual modus operandi. But what we need is a strategy to make fire safety a compulsory measure at all sites and government institutions. The enforcement of rules to regulate these steps must be made a compulsory requirement.

Ban on websites

June 9th, 2012

The Pakistan government’s war against the internet resulted in the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) blocking a host of torrent websites that allow people to download music, movies and TV shows. On the face of it, the justification for this ban is that these websites allow users to circumvent copyright laws and steal intellectual property. But a closer look at the manner in which these bans are placed shows just how arbitrary they are. In other countries, a long judicial process is followed before a website can be blocked. The US blocked the streaming site MegaUpload only after getting a court order. In Pakistan, the PTA decides which sites it wants to block and then does so without any accountability whatsoever.

This is exactly what happened when social networking site Twitter was blocked for a day and this process was also followed when banning hundreds of thousands of pornographic websites. The judiciary is not without fault either, ordering the blocking of websites like Facebook, simply to deny users access to an objectionable image or two. This crusade against the internet shows that we have a government that is essentially fighting against modernity. People will always be able to find ways to bypass bans but the country will never recover from the hit it takes to its reputation.

The latest torrent ban makes even less sense than previous ones because pirated DVDs are freely and openly available across the country. There is a chance, perhaps, that the large commercial interests that represent the pirating industry in Pakistan were behind the ban. But for the government to agree to such a ban still means the same thing: those we elect to serve us would much rather rule us with an iron fist. The government wants to be the sole authority on what we can watch and listen to and which websites we can visit. That is a terrifying usurpation of our rights as free citizens that we should be trying to fight back against at every opportunity.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Making voting mandatory

June 10th, 2012

Among the recommendations made by the Supreme Court to improve the way elections are held in the country, the most important one is likely to be its call to make voting compulsory. There is little doubt that the Court is acting with good intentions here and this recommendation has been made with the aim of ensuring a better democratic set-up in the country. Elections in Pakistan have time and again seen extremely low voter turnout and those returning victorious in these elections can hardly be called the true representatives of the people. That is why increasing the voter turnout should be a goal for every state institution and the Supreme Court’s recommendation should be seen in this background.

However, it is important to note that voter turnout in Pakistan has rarely exceeded 40 per cent; having to get the rest of the voting population to the polls may be beyond the state’s ability. Unless measures are introduced to allow for pre-poll voting, expecting every voter to be able to turn out on election day may be asking for too much. An alternative to making voting compulsory, therefore, may be to educate voters about their rights and bring political parties on board to mobilise voters. Voting is a civic duty and citizens should be made aware of that duty. However, given the state of the electoral system in Pakistan, mandatory voting may be unenforceable at this time. Maybe our aim should be more modest — to increase turnout through a more enforceable method.

Another thing to be considered here is that people should have as much of a right to not vote in elections as they do to cast their ballot. Secondly, maybe such a decision should be made by the legislature. There is also a need to look at the electoral systems in countries that have compulsory voting. Some of these countries, like Singapore and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are not the most democratic in the world. Other countries, like Argentina and Brazil, also have compulsory voting, although citizens can opt out of voting so long as they do so in writing. In Pakistan, where the literacy rate is not very high, a law making voting mandatory will be hard to enforce but such a proposal should not be disregarded entirely.

Plots for bureaucrats and generals

June 10th, 2012

A well-worn subject has been dug up by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) of the National Assembly: how and why “bureaucrats, judges and generals” get to own residential plots on state land? The reason ostensibly is that the PAC is convinced that this is being done without “a comprehensive policy and clear rules and guidelines”. Headed by a PPP MNA, the PAC might arouse suspicions of intended targeting of the perceived opposition. But it seems upset about some individual beneficiaries owning more than one plot and wants to know why they are treated differently from the others. On the face of it, the PAC finds this policy “irrational”.

Apparently, the objection is to some persons walking away with multiple plots of lands, not to the idea of their getting plots. The PAC noted that in the past, too, a chairman of the PAC, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, had tried to inquire into the logic of allotments but had got nowhere with the establishment that actually handles the matter. People with power and punch get plots and even arable land allotted to them in the provinces. Old centres of power, which still carry wallop, may yet force the PAC to look other way, but the new emerging centres of power will be upset by this move.

The PPP will be challenged in its motive. The establishment, already not very impressed with its governance may drag its feet to tide over the time left for this PAC to do its job since elections are around the corner. If this is witch-hunting against the judges and the generals — the two categories seen by some PPP stalwarts as acting in tandem against the party — it is not going anywhere except that it highlights an issue that should have been tackled a long time ago. The issue can be framed like this: land in the capital territory is finite while the stream of bureaucrats, judges and generals is endless.

The issue relates to other developments far afield. We know that senior military officers get their plots one way or another but they also get to own plots in Islamabad. One recent example was that of the head of the NAB, a naval officer who was entitled to a plot in Islamabad but was ignored by the then Army Chief who didn’t like him too much. But the logic of generals getting agricultural land is subject to the same logic: what if 50 years from now the country runs out of land? The extended logic is: what if the land around Islamabad runs out?

There is the land market to consider: people with money buy plots from estate agents and build in Islamabad. The drab sections of Islamabad are covered with residences of bureaucrats that should not be there if the market rules are applied. In the eyes of many, market rules should apply because that would earn money for the state exchequer. The PAC clearly states that the plots are currently given out at state expense.

We know that the plots in the cantonments are originally meant for men serving in the military, but once commercialised, these settlements become highly leveraged enterprises where the officers can make windfall profits simply by selling the plots at the going market rate. Some officers get into the informal trade of buying and selling plots and emerge as tycoons in their own right. The practice of giving out land to the upper crust of the establishment is untenable in the long run.

Already, Islamabad has become a stronghold of the bureaucratic elite. It is often said that Islamabad is “spiritually dead” and intellectually warped because it is not a normal city growing under the natural law of city development. One might add here a core of powerful journalists who get to own plots because of their ‘persuasive power’ with the ruling elite. We don’t know how this breed — doing ‘accountability’ as the fourth pillar of the state — enriches the cityscape, but the fact is that there is also the practice of bestowing plots as bribe. Some practitioners of the profession have been know to own several plots, although the PAC may not be inclined to name them.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga