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Old Sunday, January 03, 2016
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Default The Top Ten Stories in South Asia, 2015

The Top Ten Stories in South Asia, 2015
By Alyssa Ayres
January 01, 2016

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Each of the past two years, I’ve done a roundup of the developments and stories that mattered the most in South Asia. In 2014, India’s historic national election and the coming together of Afghanistan’s hard-won unity government topped my list. Theyear before, Indian women’s political activism, and Nawaz Sharif’s election in Pakistan’s first transfer of power from one civilian to another, were my top two picks. Looking back at those posts compared with the ten events I’ve selected for 2015, this year suggests a markedly less hopeful mood. The most chilling development has been the steady trickle of reports about the self-proclaimed Islamic State and its presence in the region, particularly in Afghanistan, border areas of Pakistan, and possibly in Bangladesh. Other developments in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Maldives present a mixed picture of both progress and setbacks. Here is my selection of 2015’s most consequential stories in South Asia:

Security deteriorates in Afghanistan: In December 2014, President Barrack Obama ceremonially marked the end of the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan, as did the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The U.S. troop presence “transitioned” to a train and support role, with the intention of completing troop withdrawal by the end of 2016. But grim news from Afghanistan, including a resurgent Taliban and “little nests” of the Islamic State, led Obama to revise his plan in October. Afghanistan’s unity government remains dysfunctional and without a full cabinet; the Taliban stepped up attacks (despite the belated revelation this year that Mullah Omar had died some two years ago), and hopes for a secure and stable Afghanistan in the near term have dimmed. In a tragic sign of the country’s situation, by year’s end, Afghans had become the second largest population of migrants after Syrians seeking refuge in Europe.

Modi juggernaut slows, narrative returns to earth: In 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued to successfully project India overseas, but faced a changed narrative at home. The expectations that he would be able to usher in transformational “big bang” economic reform proved unrealistic as his government found itself stymied by uproar in parliament’s upper house. Modi government officials spoke of “creative incrementalism” as the cumulative effect of a series of smaller reforms and performance improvements instead. Politically, hopes for continued gains by the Bharatiya Janata Party in state-level elections were dashed when the populist Aam Aadmi Party won Delhi by a landslide in February, and a “grand alliance” of regional parties swept Bihar in November. In the second half of the year, Modi’s much-delayed response to a shocking murder of a Muslim man merely suspected of eating beef—among the most visible of a series of similar incidents—led to a significant and politically polarized public debate in India and abroad over whether the country was growing more intolerant.

India’s economy fastest growing in the world, top foreign direct investment (FDI) destination: Even as expectations changed in India, and as political problems became more salient for the Modi government, the Indian economy chugged ahead to become the world’s fastest-growing major economy, growing at 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2015, overtaking China. It also became the world’s top foreign direct investment destination, according to the Financial Times, as announced FDI commitments to India surged to $31 billion in the first half of 2015. Those figures more than double India’s FDI levels from the first half of 2014.

China and Pakistan announce vast “economic corridor” project: In April, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan and announced a major investment package of some $46 billion. China has been Pakistan’s “all-weather friend” for decades, but the April announcement promised infrastructure developments of another order. The vision will link western China down to the Arabian Sea through a “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” that will require roads from Pakistan’s Gwadar deep water port all the way up through the Karakorum Highway linking Pakistan to China via hairpin turns carved into Himalayan mountainsides.

Nepal suffers massive earthquake: On April 25 a massive quake measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale shook Nepal. Its epicenter was forty-eight miles (seventy-seven kilometers) northwest of Kathmandu. Homes and ancient buildings crumbled; nearly nine thousand people were killed, 2.8 million displaced, and more than 600,000 homes were destroyed. Despite an outpouring of international support, delays in distributing aid with in the country led to criticism. Tourism, a mainstay of the Nepali economy, has not returned to its earlier levels. The passage of a new constitution—eight years in the making—led not to strengthening of democracy, but mass protests from Nepal’s Madhesis; a supply blockade at the India-Nepal border has further resulted in economic disruption. By the end of the year, concerns about Nepal’s economy had grown, even as the country had not yet managed to fully rebuild from the April tragedy.

Bloggers and foreigners assassinated in Bangladesh: Bangladesh’s political problems worsened in 2015. During the first half of the year, an astonishingly gruesome series of murders made international headlines as small groups of machete-wielding terrorists targeted secular and/or atheist bloggers for assassination. By September and October foreigners became the targets, and later in October a bomb exploded during a Shia procession. Following the September and October attacks, the Islamic State has claimed responsibility, but the Bangladeshi government has stated instead that the violence must be the work of domestic groups. Concerns about Bangladesh’s security have now become the headline.

Sri Lankans unseat strongman Rajapaksa, elect “combined opposition” in surprise outcome: On January 9, Sri Lanka’s Maithripala Sirisena defeated ten-year incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa. It was an upset by any measure. Sirisena previously served in the Rajapaksa cabinet, but defected along with more than twenty other members of parliament to form an opposition coalition only two months before the January polls. Rajapaksa conceded graciously. The results represent a victory for Sri Lankan democracy. Under Sirisena, Sri Lanka has also “rebalanced” its foreign relations, rebuilding its ties with India—badly frayed by 2014—as well as with the global human rights community. In a step unimaginable a year back, in September Colombo even cosponsored a consensus resolution in the UN Human Rights Council on accountability for rights violations in Sri Lanka during the war.

India emerges as a leader in Paris climate negotiations, deal reached: India has been willing, in previous multilateral negotiations, to say “no” to deals, no matter the consequences for global consensus. The India that arrived in Paris for the Conference of Parties negotiation on climate showed up with a different plan, including a proactive proposal for a newinternational solar alliance, which Modi inaugurated with French President Francois Hollande. Over the more than two weeks of deliberations India was a voice for the developing countries, and pushed for its priorities, but focused on a deal. The outcome—a global climate agreement—provides a good indication of how India’s new ambition of being a “leading power, rather than just a balancing power” is already positioning it to shape outcomes.

Raheel Sharif rises, Nawaz Sharif sinks in sadly predictable setback for Pakistani democracy: As the Wall Street Journal put it, “Powerful General Raheel Sharif Eclipses Pakistan’s Prime Minister.” Though General Sharif had been in place since 2013, it was not until this year that his profile appeared to shine brighter than the democratically-elected Nawaz Sharif. But Nawaz became hobbled domestically by street protests throughout 2014, and the military clipped his foreign policy efforts to build better ties with India. In 2015, Pakistan’s military once again rose in prominence as the institution that can “deliver,” and General Raheel Sharif became the subject of social media memes and “cult hero” tributes.

Maldives court sentences former president to prison in Kafkaesque trial: In a continued setback to Maldives’ nascent democracy, former President Mohamed Nasheed remained in prison at the end of 2015, despite the high-profile efforts of his legal team led by Amal Clooney, who has single-handedly helped this case gain visibility it might not have enjoyed otherwise. In March, a Maldivian court sentenced Nasheed to thirteen years’ imprisonment on the charge of terrorism relating to his actions in office when he ordered the arrest of a judge. The trial itself was ridden with numerous irregularities. The UN Human Rights Council Working Group on Arbitrary Detention issued an opinion in favor of Nasheed in September.


Alyssa Ayres is Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. She blogs at Asia Unbound. This post appears courtesy of CFR.org and Forbes Asia.
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Default What Made Headlines in Southeast Asia in 2015?

What Made Headlines in Southeast Asia in 2015?
By Mong Palatino
January 01, 2016

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A look back at some of the top stories from Southeast Asia in 2015:

1. Landslide victory for Myanmar’s National League for Democracy. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi may be constitutionally barred from becoming president of Myanmar but her party secured an historic victory in the general election. A tenth of the new members of the parliament were former political prisoners, including Suu Kyi herself. NLD’s victory was less surprising than the decision of the military and the incumbent military-backed civilian government to recognize the poll results. Will this lead to sweeping reforms in Myanmar next year?

2. Corruption scandal in Malaysia. First, there were allegations that state-run investment firm 1Malaysia Development Bhd lost a large amount of money due to anomalous transactions. Subsequently, Prime Minister Najib Razak was accused of pocketing more than $600 million from 1MDB. Najib denied the charge and insisted that the money was a donation for his political party from a supporter in the Middle East. Some of his influential allies were not convinced and they tried to persuade him to resign. Najib gets to keep his post (for now) but the scandal is expected to undermine his leadership until the end of his term.

3. Indonesian haze. The recurring haze from Indonesia affected residents of Singapore, Malaysia, and some parts of southern Philippines. Caused by forest fires, the haze reflected the inability of Indonesian leaders to stop plantation owners and farmers from clearing the land for palm oil. But responsibility for resolving the problem is not restricted to Indonesia alone, since several plantations in the ‘ground zero’ of the forest fires are owned by Singaporean and Malaysian companies.

4. Lese majeste cases in Thailand. Since grabbing power in 2014, the Thai junta has used the anti-Royal Insult law to silence and harass opposition leaders, activists, and even ordinary citizens. Some lese majeste cases led to convictions with harsh prison terms. The law is meant to protect the monarchy but the junta is using it to justify repression. Diplomats and foreign scholars are urging Thailand to review its strict implementation of the law but the junta responded by threatening to arrest critics — and recently, even began investigating the U.S. ambassador for insulting the king by questioning the application of the lese majeste law.

5. Corruption scandal in Indonesia. House Speaker Setya Novanto resigned his post after he was accused of asking for a 20 percent stake in the mining giant Freeport in exchange for the extension of the company’s contract to operate in Indonesia. The House leader found it difficult to deny the charges, since his conversation with a Freeport executive was secretly recorded but still insisted that he was only joking. He was being probed for ethics violation when he resigned as House speaker. He is still a member of Congress and leader of the powerful Golkar Party.

6. Rohingya refugees. Thousands of Rohingya boat refugees were pushed back into the seas by the governments of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia early this year. The Rohingya are mostly Muslim but they are treated as illegal residents in Myanmar. The marginalized Rohingya are living in makeshift camps in western Myanmar, forcing many of them to seek refuge in neighboring countries.

7. Trade agreements and economic integration. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei are included in the United States-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Meanwhile, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines are also seeking to join the club. Negotiations over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a regional free trade area including the ten ASEAN countries and those nations with existing free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN – Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea – continued but did not conclude by the end of the year as had been hoped. Aside from TPP and RCEP, the plan to create a single economic community in the Southeast Asian region known as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) also took off this year.

8. Cambodia’s opposition lawmakers boycott parliament. Last year, Cambodian politicians vowed to pursue a so-called “culture of dialogue,” which ended the decision of the opposition to boycott the parliament. This year, the opposition boycotted the parliament again for two months after some of their members were beaten by a pro-government group. A defamation case against the opposition leader was also revived. The opposition is now back in the parliament but it doesn’t mean the ruling party, which has been in power for more than three decades already, will stop its attacks against its political rivals.

9. Laos assumes leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Laos announced that the theme of ASEAN in 2016 is “Turning Vision into Reality for a Dynamic ASEAN Community.” Its great task is to help build the foundations for establishing the ambitious ASEAN Economic Community.

10. Philippines vs China maritime case. The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague ruled that it has jurisdiction over the case filed by the Philippines against China over the maritime disputes in the South China Sea (known in the Philippines as the West Philippine Sea). The case proceeded to oral arguments. The decision, expected around the middle of 2016, could also affect the similar claims of several countries in the region and China’s behavior with respect to its neighbors.

11. Death of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. Singapore’s founding leader Lee Kuan Yew passed away this year, an event that saw an entire country mourning his death and paying tribute to Southeast Asia’s most famous statesman. Global leaders also recalled the visionary leadership of Lee Kuan Yew and his success in leading the transformation of a small island state into a prosperous economy in less than three decades. Lee Kuan Yew’s party, the People’s Action Party (PAP), led by his son Lee Hsien Loong, maintained its leadership by clinching a landslide victory in September.

12. Human trafficking in Thailand. International scrutiny over human trafficking in Thailand continued in 2015, as a shocking expose led to several arrests and rescue missions related to slavery in Thailand’s seafood industry. The discovery of mass graves of trafficking victims in the country and the case of a senior police officer seeking asylum in Australia only heightened concerns about the issue in the country.

13. Vietnam passes transgender law. The new law in Vietnam now recognizes the right of transgenders to undergo sex reassignment surgery in the country. In addition, those who have undergone sex surgery can legally change their gender status. The LGBT community inside and outside of Vietnam welcomed the passage of the law but urged the government to improve it by recognizing the right of all transgenders, including those who are unable to undergo a sex surgery.
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