Question of power

The Supreme Court has upheld the power of the cabinet vis-a-vis the prime minister, after a three-member bench rejected a review petition on the SC’s previous decision (given in August this year) to clip the powers of the PM to act without consulting the cabinet in legislative or financial matters. The government’s decision to contest the earlier SC ruling was a strange one, especially since it has been the one touting itself as the saviour of democracy in Pakistan. The government presented it as a matter of principle but the SC rejected the petition out of hand, noting that giving discretionary powers to the PM would be akin to creating a monarchical form of government. If one looks closer into the matter, it becomes clear that what is being presented as a matter of principle is in reality about giving tax exemptions to certain sectors in the economy. The SC ruling in August technically rejected the PM’s ability to issue the SROs, which gave tax exemptions to the textile and cellular services sectors. Instead of asking the SC to review its decision, the government should instead have attempted to strengthen the consultative process within the cabinet and the legislature.

The mere fact that the government is asking for discretionary powers for the prime minister is a troubling one. The grounds submitted by the government were flimsy at best. One of the arguments presented was that the SC judgement had ended the distinction between the federal government and the cabinet. Moreover, they argued that the constitution mandated a strong chief executive and raised the fear of a ‘constitutional crisis’. If any such crisis occurs, the government itself will merely have manufactured it. There is no reason why the PM cannot turn to the cabinet for approving SROs and any other fiscal or financial measures. It is something that every PM committed to democracy and consensus-based governance must do. We have already opposed the practice of giving out discretionary SROs and supplementary budget. There should be some sanctity in the consultative process with which fiscal measures and spending priorities are decided at the start of every financial year. It is the sign of a weak chief executive if they keep issuing new orders on their own terms. Why should the PM be able to sanction fiscal or financial imperatives without cabinet approval? It is not a decision to go to war. The government would be well advised to let the matter be put to rest and concentrate on improving the processes with which such decisions are made.

Positive ratings

Pakistan’s economy seems to have stabilised in the eyes of the international community. This past Saturday, the IMF once again lauded Pakistan’s economic reforms programme and claimed the country was set for higher and more inclusive growth. The IMF statement followed the decision of global rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) to raise the rating for Pakistan’s long-term sovereign debt to B from B-. The S&P rating had come after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde praised Pakistan’s newfound macroeconomic stability. S&P has said that Pakistan long-term economic outlook is stable after an improved economic performance. However, it insisted that Pakistan’s economy continued to exhibit structural weaknesses, such as a narrow tax base and internal and external security risks. This means that, while Pakistan’s fiscal and external buffers have improved, they remain underpinned by major structural weaknesses. The credit rating agency has made a number of positive readjustments to its predictions for Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan’s GDP per capita is expected to hit $1,500 by the end of this year. The growth rate will rise to five percent for 2016-2019. The agency also feels Pakistan’s government debt will fall below 60 percent by 2018. It may even improve Pakistan’s credit rating further if security improves.

If all of these predictions are met, there is certainly scope for believing that a slow but steady economic recovery is on its way in Pakistan. Global credit rating agencies are increasingly positive that the current democratic setup has led the country out of the economic doldrums. Big words such as macroeconomic stability, reduced fiscal vulnerabilities and growth-supporting reforms, have been used to describe the country’s economic situation. The same enthusiasm is rarely found domestically. Key areas such as exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) show no indication of improving drastically despite the promise of Chinese investment in the CPEC. Low oil cost could be the simplest of explanations for why Pakistan’s fiscal health seems to be much better. The country also remains heavily dependent on remittances for its foreign exchange reserves. S&P is also concerned over the real appreciation of the international exchange rate for the Pakistani rupee, which is said to be a major risk if Pakistan wants to genuinely improve exports. Overall, the news is positive. Operating in a difficult climate, the current government has managed to improve the international perception of Pakistan’s economy. It will need to do more to continue to upward trajectory.

Investigating Gadani

More than one week after the November 1 explosion at an oil tanker in the Gadani ship-breaking yard, the death toll has risen to 26 and there is a chance of even more casualties as an unknown number of workers are still missing. The inquiry committee constituted by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met for the first time yesterday and promised to report back within 15 days. But such committees are either ignored or their findings whitewashed and there is no reason to believe this time will be any different. Trade unions took out rallies in Karachi and demanded that the matter be handed over to a judicial commission rather than be handled by the government. At least the work of the judicial commission would be open to public scrutiny and not just be presented to us a fait accompli. Any commission, be it judicial or governmental, will have a lot to investigate. The probe must start with the safety procedures – or lack thereof – in place at Gadani. The explosion was apparently caused by oil that had not been fully drained from the ship. The probe will have to find out why shortcuts were taken with such basic safety measures. The answer, though, can be given by anyone who works in Gadani.

As the ship-breaking industry has declined, it is workers who have had to pay the brunt of the price. Most of those who worked in ship-breaking have long been laid off and those few who remain face hazardous working conditions so that owners can save money. It is only appropriate then that the police have already arrested the contractor and manager of the shop and have only spared the owner prison so far because he is in hospital. The only way to get owners to take seriously the safety of their workers is by holding them criminally liable should they fail to do so. But such action should be taken regularly and not just after fatal accidents. Additionally, owners must be forced to treat their workers better. Most of the employees at Gadani are on contract rather than full time, receive less than the minimum wage and no benefits such as healthcare or pensions. Occupations as hazardous as ship-breaking need to offer better remuneration and a probe should explore conditions in the industry as a whole. Finally, the government will have to account for its own role in the tragedy. How many deaths could have been prevented had more than one fire truck been available at the time? It took four days for the fire at the ship to be extinguished, so clearly a better initial response was needed. Ultimately, there are many malignant actors who are responsible for what happened at Gadani and all need to be held accountable.

Fight for Mosul

Over the weekend, Iraqi troops entered the Isis stronghold of Mosul for the first time in two years. Kurdish troops had made the first successful strike against Isis forces in the north-eastern town of Bashiqa. The two-month time period given to take back Mosul seems to have accelerated, as Isis put up limited resistance. However, nothing can be guaranteed yet. With tens of thousands of Iraqi troops, combined with Kurdish fighters, ready for the fight to take back Mosul from the self-proclaimed caliphate, it seems inevitable that the city will be back in the control of the Iraqi government. It is only then that the real battle for the hearts and minds of those living in the city will begin. It is not surprising that many of those who stayed behind in Mosul after Isis seized the city will be sceptical over whether the Iraqi government can provide them long-term protection and also restore basic civil amenities and the supply of food and water. For now, weeks of deadly urban warfare could be the fate of the Iraqi troops since at least 5,000 trained Isis fighters are still said to be within the city. Snipers, car bombs and potential hostage situations await. Unlike previous attacks on Isis, where their fighters have simply withdrawn to safer locations, it seems the plan is to engage them in a fight till death.

The option of allowing Isis fighters to withdraw from Mosul to prepare for another attack is simply not there. The human cost of the coming battle cannot be underplayed. Mosul is already facing a humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands of people are battling shortages of food and medical supplies. Amidst the ongoing war in Mosul, tensions between the Iraqi and Turkish governments have spiked up once again over Turkey’s insistence that it wants a role in the fight for Mosul. In this context, another call to war by the head of Isis, Abu-Bakr Baghdadi, might serve to mobilise his troops, although his recorded message was strange in that it did not mention Mosul. However, Baghdadi was reported to have urged his fighters to take the fight to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. There is no doubt that if Isis is allowed to survive, there is no chance of peace being restored in the Middle East. The battle for Mosul has been two years in the making. Failure will set the Iraqi government back years. The troops entering the city will need to ensure they minimise the civilian death toll and keep the flow of basic supplies into the city. The first step on the long road to peace in Iraq may be close

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

The Khuzdar attack

The attack on the Shah Noorani shrine in Khuzdar which killed over 60 people and wounded at least a hundred others seemed designed to inflict maximum casualties. The attack took place on a Saturday when over a thousand people, mainly from Karachi, were visiting the shrine. The timing of the blast, when visitors were performing the dhamaal in the courtyard of the shrine, would seem to confirm that. Responsibility for the attack has been claimed by the Islamic State, although the government has not yet commented on the identity or group affiliation of the attackers. The attacks come just three months after the suicide bombing at the Government Hospital in Quetta, where mourners were gathered after the earlier killing of the president of the Balochistan Bar Association. In that attack, too, the Islamic State had claimed responsibility although the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar also said they carried it out. Then, in October, militants belonging to a faction of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi killed at least 60 people at a police academy. The first question raised by attacks such as these is one of security. Shrines, such as the Abdullah Shah Ghazi mazaar in Karachi, have been a target of militant groups before and law enforcement should ideally have been searching every person who entered the Shah Noorani shrine. The DSP in the area said the shrine came under the jurisdiction of the Balochistan Levies but they did not have a system in place to check for explosives. That even now, after so many hundreds of attacks, security is far from foolproof shows that we still lack the capability to defend against the militant menace.

Given what we know about militant groups, it is possible they were just trying to kill as many civilians as possible – especially since they were congregated at a shrine. The attack took place just one day before Nawaz Sharif and Raheel Sharif visited Gwadar for a ceremony marking the opening of the port. Even if the CPEC was not uppermost in the minds of the militants, if such attacks take place regularly they could put the project in jeopardy. For now, the government needs to ensure there are no further security lapses. While security at shrines has been stepped up, it is obviously impossible to guard each and every one of the many in the country. The problem is one linked directly to the failure to curb groups that perpetuate militancy and extremism. The details of the attack at Khuzdar are still emerging, and there is some lack of clarity on whether it constituted a suicide bombing or an explosive device placed at the premises. Regardless of these details, the fact is that another blow has been delivered to our security setup. With every such blast we continue to become ever more in danger of losing our freedom to access our spaces of heritage.

Demonitisation plans

Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s announcement about the withdrawal of higher denomination notes seems to have found its admirers in Pakistan. A PPP senator last week submitted a resolution to the Senate asking for the withdrawal of Rs1,000 and Rs5,000 notes from circulation. The logic behind such a move seems to be curbing corruption, money laundering, tax evasion and other black market practices. While India and Pakistan both genuinely have a tax payment problem, forcing people to switch to smaller denomination notes may not necessarily lead to more tax payers. As shown in the case of India, it will lead to financial chaos and lots of unhappy citizens despite the praise that analysts seem to wish to lend to such a measure. The real impact of such a measure will be on consumers who will have to carry bulky amounts of cash or switch to cashless methods, which are still rarely available in the Subcontinent’s markets. The problem is that currency values in Pakistan and India are so low that a Pakistani Rs5,000 note or an Indian Rs1,000 note has barely any purchasing power attached to it. Coming at under $50 value and $25 value, anyone wanting to use either currency to launder money or evade taxes already has to keep a substantial stack of cash in storage.

It should not be difficult to understand the relative insignificance of such amounts. After the Pakistani government announced a withholding tax on bank transactions, prize bonds became much more popular for black market trading. Modi’s decision to withdraw the Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes in India cannot be understood as a victory against tax evasion and corruption. Instead, it is another desperate move by a government that is unable to fulfill the big election promises it made, including the promise of a crackdown on black money transactions. Moreover, such measures also fundamentally misunderstand the nature of corruption. The most serious types of corruption occur at the higher echelons of government, not in the hands of the petty bureaucrat. Taking out a certain denomination of currency notes from the market is merely a cosmetic move. It is certainly not one that should be followed by Pakistan. Clamping down on corruption requires much more serious efforts. It is unlikely that the huge amounts stashed in offshore bank accounts were moved via petty cash. If the Indian or Pakistani governments are serious about clamping down on corruption and tax evasion, they need to do that through strengthening taxation and anti-corruption authorities. This is something neither government seems to be serious about.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Dealing with Washington

Regardless of who is in the White House, the one thing we can be sure of is that they will always be asking Pakistan to ‘do more’. The mantra was a favourite of the Bush administration and was enthusiastically embraced by Obama’s team. The incoming Trump presidency will likely be no different. The latest call for us to do more against militancy came from the US state department after Republicans in Congress made some noises to have Pakistan declared a state sponsor of terrorism and an online petition by Indian-Americans condemning Pakistan reached 100,000 signatures, forcing the administration to respond to it. The Obama administration is opposed to legislation denouncing Pakistan and has preferred to pursue diplomacy. As grating as it may be to always be told by the US to do more, it may still be preferable to the possible alternative. And the alternative is what we may end up getting with Trump. He is likely to sign legislation passed by the Republican Congress and is also predisposed to be in favour of Narendra Modi. In fact, Modi was one of the few world leaders for whom Trump had nothing but praise. As pro-India as the Obama administration has been, it is likely to get even worse.

The question the Obama administration has failed to explain is what more it expects Pakistan to do. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has been successful in tackling the TTP and its allies and has even disrupted the Haqqani Network to some extent. Taking action against the Afghan Taliban would be counter-productive when it is trying to negotiate a peace deal with the Afghan government. Sure, there are other militant groups, mainly based in Punjab, but the answer cannot always be military operations. It would be more effective to go after their financing and stifle their recruitment. Their hateful ideology should be countered but doing it down the barrel of the gun may not be the wisest idea. The rise of the Islamic State has been worrying but Operation Zarb-e-Azb has included this new terror group and action is being taken against IS. But the reason the US is singing the do more tune is because it suits India to have discussion shifted away from its atrocities in Kashmir to alleged Pakistani patronage of militant groups. India has always tried to denounce the liberation movement in Kashmir as terroristic in nature and the US has helped it cause by telling Pakistan to do more. At the very least, the Obama administration has kept engaging Pakistan and shied away from some of India’s more extreme demands to isolate us. The problem, of course, is that once Donald Trump takes power in two months, all cards are off the table and we may find ourselves dealing with an even more unreliable US than ever before.

ECP and political finance

In principle, there is good news from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). After a long delay, the ECP this past Friday gave approval for the creation of a directorate of political finance. The directorate will be tasked with auditing the statement of assets and liabilities of all legislators. The scrutiny process will take place from November 1 each year but is likely to be delayed by a few weeks this year as a number of posts remain empty. Once functional, the directorate is likely to be at the centre of much political controversy. The last director hired for the job could not complete a year in the post. That said, the creation of a political finance wing is the next logical step in the institutionalisation of the ECP. The task is one that will require great technical expertise. It will also require the appointment of someone with the requisite qualifications and someone also known to be non-partisan in political matters. Every year, the financial submissions of lawmakers have amused the public with the sometimes astronomically low wealth and tax declarations from some.

The trouble is that the exercise of verifying the assets and liabilities of those contesting elections is likely to require a vast bureaucratic apparatus, the likes of which is currently not available to the ECP. If one were to count elected officials alone, there are over 1,500 across the country who sit in provincial and national legislatures. If one were to count those who were elected to local bodies, the ECP would need to scrutinise the assets of about a hundred thousand officials. This is a task that is simply impossible without the allocation of funds and relevant expertise. Merely announcing a political finance directorate and ensuring it is functional are two different things. It will be important to ensure that such a directorate does not become politicised. The creation of this directorate also reopens the debate for the need for a proper way for the ECP to monitor campaign finance. Overspending on electoral campaigns is a major problem which has continued to go unchecked, even by the political parties making the greatest hue and cry about the sources of funding of other politicians. Making a functional political finance directorate will go a long way in restoring the reputation and credibility of the ECP.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

The farewell tour

With the start of his farewell tour of the country, Army Chief Raheel Sharif confirmed he would become the first COAS in more than two decades to relinquish the office on time – in his case November 29. He had always maintained that he would depart this way but there had been intense speculation all around that things might turn out different. Sharif will leave as one of the country’s most popular army chiefs ever, both among the civilian population and within the military. Part of this has to do with the way he has prosecuted the war against militancy. His resolve in taking on the militant threat – in a way that his predecessors did not – contributed greatly to his popularity. He will be remembered by many Pakistanis for his services in crushing the internal threat that endangered the security of the country and the safety of its people. In other realms of military life General Sharif will also go down as a man always willing to visit the battlefield and raise the morale of soldiers caught in difficult situation. His personal efforts had an undoubted impact on the success of the drive against militants. His popularity would have been diminished had he sought an extension, as some politically expedient creatures wanted him to. As important as individual leadership is, it must always be in service of the institution. That is what Raheel Sharif, both in his role as army chief for the last three years and in his decision not to seek a second term, has done right by the institution. One reason former COAS Ashfaq Parvez Kayani lost a lot of support among the ranks after he took an extension was that it ended up delaying promotions for everyone else down the chain of command. That created resentment within the army’s ranks.

The incoming army chief – who is to be appointed from a list to be presented to the prime minister by the military – will face a number of challenges. Pakistan faces threats on both its eastern and western fronts. The challenge posed by India’s open aggression is especially disturbing. Beyond this, there has also been a sudden upsurge in militant activity since August, with 185 persons killed since then in militant attacks. As fractured as the TTP may be, it and its ideological fellow travellers have shown they still retain the ability to carry out devastating strikes. The rise of the Islamic State as a pan-global militant organisation which is beginning to gain a following in Pakistan may keep the military occupied for the foreseeable future. We still have tens of thousands of IDPs to resettle in Fata. Gen Raheel Sharif has got the ball rolling on some of these issues and they will need to be continued by his successor. The incoming chief will need to uphold the examples set by General Sharif and combat both the internal and external threats. He will replace an army chief who fully deserves all the salutes he is receiving as he visits military bases and headquarters to bid farewell.

The president’s men

If anyone thought Donald Trump was going to veer towards the political centre after being elected, they were wrong. Amidst a clamouring from the American political elite for accepting Trump as the country’s president, Trump has made important nominations on the national security, civil rights and foreign policy. Neither of the appointees gives anyone any confidence that a Trump presidency might not be as xenophobic and bigoted as is feared by many. The appointment of former three-star general, Michael Flynn, as national security adviser has been big news. Flynn is famous for suggesting earlier this year that Americans should fear all Muslims. If a man who sincerely believes all Muslims are to be feared is heading US national security, there are going to be tough times ahead for Muslims in the US – and those planning to move or visit the country. Then, there is Trump’s pick for attorney general, Republican Senator Jeff Sessions, who is known to be an anti-immigration crusader hated by civil rights activists. Sessions is known to have called civil rights organisations un-American and white lawyers representing black people a ‘disgrace’ to their race. Then there is Congressman Mike Pompeo for CIA director. Pompeo has defended the use of torture in interrogations.

Once you add these three to the appointment of white nationalist sympathiser, Stephen Bannon, as top White House strategist, any doubts about the direction being taken by the Trump presidency seem to slowly start fading. By appointing stalwarts of the far right to top national security and law enforcement positions, Trump has signalled his clear intention to aggressively pursue the promises he made during his campaign. The appointment of Trump’s children and his son-in-law in the transition team after the acrimonious and sudden removal of Chris Christie as head of the transition team has opened up serious questions about how much influence his entire family will have on American policy. Analysts who thought Trump might move to the centre have been proven wrong. Speculations that Mitt Romney might be considered for secretary of state give some relief to people, but the addition of some more established – albeit right wing – politicians would only give more credibility to a president who seems to be doing all he can to prove as divisive for the US and the world as he was predicted to be. If Trump’s appointments are confirmed, it is not only immigrants that need to be worried; civil rights activists and the Black Lives Matter movement will need to brace themselves for politics of hate. Then there is the promise to push through trillions of dollars in state infrastructural investments in another New Deal. Trump’s early days confirm that the US has been handed to a far-right populist. Instead of healing the wounds inflicted by the election campaign and decades of political and economic mismanagement, the fissures in American society are all set to get deeper. The only respite there seems to have been the anti-Trump protests when – till now – have been consistent. How long they can be sustained is a whole different question, though.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Delayed census

It has now been 18 years since Pakistani last conducted a census and the government is still looking for excuses to delay it further. Law Minister Zahid Hamid told the Senate earlier this week that it will not be possible to hold the census till at least March of next year. Even that date seems optimistic since the Pakistani Bureau of Statistics told the Supreme Court that the census could be held in March or April, but only subject to the availability of the armed forces. The Supreme Court was not convinced by that argument, with Chief Justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali arguing that this should be a job for the civilian argument. And indeed if our criterion for the census is waiting for the army to be free then we will have to postpone it indefinitely. The operations in the tribal areas are far from over and tensions with India and Afghanistan mean we need more soldiers than ever to man our borders. The PML-N government has now had more than three years to come up with an alternative plan but it is still trying to buy more time. But the date of March 2017 was rejected by the Supreme Court earlier this year and there was no reason for the government to come back with the same date.

In its last hearing back in September, the Supreme Court had warned that it would not be possible to conduct the delimitation of constituencies for the 2018 elections should a census not be conducted. This explains why the government is trying to put off the census for as long as possible. An updated census could change the number of seats given to various cities in the National Assembly – thereby affecting political strongholds in rural Punjab. The effects of the government’s delaying tactics on this necessary task will be felt by everyone. A census is needed for updated statistics on poverty and how best to hand out welfare, to figure out urban and rural planning and for just about every other measure of development. The government needs to realise that holding a census is a constitutional requirement. There is no reason why civilian officials cannot carry out the census themselves, even if they have to do it in stages. Not agreeing to hold the census at the right time is only making the matter worse and more controversial than necessary.

Cruelty at school

Muhammad Ahmad, a little more than thirteen years old, should be with his friends and classmates at the Larkana Cadet College where he was a student till August this year. Instead, the young teenager lies in bed at a relative’s house in Karachi, a nasal tube pouring liquid foods into his stomach to keep him alive. The boy can neither speak nor use his limbs. According to his father, Ahmad was tortured at school, apparently having been severely beaten up. This young boy’s plight is a reminder that the government still routinely fails in its job to protect the weakest among us. According to the father, the child was tortured by the principal and a headmaster of the cadet college more than four months ago and it has taken till now for any attention to be paid to his plight. The principal of the cadet college, a retired army officer, has declined to comment on the matter. We therefore do not know why the tragedy that crippled Ahmad took place. But it is obvious a full inquiry is required. The punishments inflicted on Ahmad go far beyond discipline and are brutally sadistic. During this whole period, his father had to bear medical expenses he could scarcely afford and all pleas for help were ignored. No one has yet been held responsible and the government has not even ascertained what crimes were committed under laws protecting the welfare of children and outlawing corporal punishment.

Almost as shocking as the torture has been the refusal of the authorities at the cadet college to accept responsibility for their criminal actions. They have tried to blame Ahmad for what was done to him. The smear campaign against him has included allegations that he suffered mental health issues and was a poor student. His father has proved that to be a lie by releasing his generally excellent grades. The response from the government was inexcusable in its tardiness, with Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah only now ordering the health minister to ensure all of Ahmad’s medical bills are paid and demanding an inquiry be held into what was done to him. The work of the inquiry has been nothing short of a fiasco so far. The medical board meant to examine the boy and determine the causes of his injuries was not in a position to do its job because its ENT specialist was out of the country and no one seems to know when he will be back. Without him it may not be possible to present the report on Ahmad’s torture. It is inexcusable for the government to have taken so long to even start an inquiry into what happened and then to conduct it in such a shoddy manner. A terrible tragedy has occurred. A young boy lies unable to move, kept alive by liquid food and multiple medications. Doctors in Karachi hold out no hope that he will recover. His life has forever been destroyed as has that of his family. The least we can do is attempt to uncover the truth and ensure those guilty do not get away scot-free.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Discussing Afghanistan

The power structures we have come to expect to dominate South Asia are slowly being replaced. The disaster that is the US war in Afghanistan means fewer countries trust it or expect it to deliver stability. The election of Narendra Modi in India has made it all but impossible for Pakistan to maintain good relations with its Eastern neighbour. China, thanks to the CPEC, has made a bold bid to be the primary political player in the region. And now Russia is trying to make its influence felt in the region too. The country that was humiliatingly forced to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989 is now trying to have its voice heard in planning for the conflict-ridden country’s future. Moscow will be holding a conference, along with Pakistan and China, in December to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and what can be done about it. The meeting will be held the same month as the Heart of Asia conference in India, which is also concerned with peace and stability in Afghanistan. Russia is clearly hoping to dislodge Indian hegemony in South Asia by overtly supporting its neighbours and becoming more involved in regional issues. The opening to do so is certainly there since both Heart of Asia and the US-led Quadrilateral Crisis Group have failed to achieve any diplomatic breakthroughs in Afghanistan.

Russia has made other moves recently showing it is ready to pursue a closer alliance with Pakistan. At the Brics summit in India, Russia and China were at the forefront of moves to block India from adopting a resolution denouncing Pakistan as a terrorist state. Russia also carried out joint military exercises with Pakistan, a clear thumb in the eye for India, which has traditionally been a Russian ally. The US, meanwhile, has drifted every closer to India and at the UN General Assembly meeting in September it even held a trilateral meeting with India and Afghanistan without inviting Pakistan. Such moves have led us to Moscow. Of course, Russia has close to zero influence in Afghanistan so the point of this conference seems to be less to influence events on the ground and more to show India and the US that it will not always get its way in the region. With the CPEC, China will now be an economic player throughout the continent and be less reliant on India for trade routes while Russia, which looks at India as a proxy for the US, might be more inclined to pursue better ties with Pakistan.

Top of the world

Hassan Sadpura, the only Pakistani mountaineer to have summited six of the world’s highest peaks including Everest (8848m), K2 (8611m), Gasherbrum I (8080m), Gasherbrum II(8034m), Nanga Parbat (8126 m) and Broad Peak (8051m), died at the age of 53 at the CMH in Rawalpindi on Tuesday. He had stood at the very top of the world time and time again, climbing five of the 8000m peaks without oxygen. Sadpura, born Hassan Asad in the small village from which he took his name near Skardu, will now be buried many thousands of metres below the mountains he loved. His final battle was against the blood cancer he was diagnosed with around three months ago. His son had made an appeal to the government for help so he could be treated at the Aga Khan Hospital in Karachi. A cheque of Rs2.5 million was handed over around 10 days ago, but it was too late to save the life of the most successful mountaineer Pakistan has produced.

What is most significant is that Sadpura climbed his first peaks without the sophisticated equipment available to Western climbers. He had worked as a porter for teams from other countries, including Koreans and Poles, and later used some of the equipment they left with him to begin a small mountaineering shop business in Skardu where he sold both used and new gear. He acquired his skills purely through practice and without any professional training. His ability was admired by climbers from around the world, and he had said he would be able to surmount all 14 of the world’s highest peaks if he was provided financial assistance and sponsorship. This help never came his way in a country which so often fails to respect talent in sport or the spirit of true adventurers. Despite these handicaps, Sadpura had climbed each of the five peaks that are over 8000m in Pakistan. His dream was to set up a mountaineering school in his native Skardu and help others reach the heights from which he had once looked down upon the world. It was a dream he could never fulfil.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Trouble on the LoC

India transgressions rise by the day – as part of India’s continuing campaign to distract attention from its Kashmir occupation by stirring up tensions along the Line of Control. On Wednesday, the Indian troops fired on a bus and then the ambulance which came to rescue the victims. This is an open act of unforgiveable violence against a neighbouring country, and against Kashmiris. At least another 40 were injured. In a separate incident, three Pakistani soldiers were killed while engaged in retaliatory firing with Indian troops in another sector of the LoC, while seven Indian troops also died. This escalation by India shows it is bent on maximising civilian casualties and is only going to intensify the conflict and create the possibility of a full-scale war. Such an atmosphere needs to be cooled down – but this seems far from being India’s intention. The Pakistani DGMO sent a demarche to his Indian counterpart, warning him that Pakistan reserves the right to strike back at any time. The firing on both sides has, however, continued. Needless to say, India is hoping to continue its campaign of violence. Its intention is to create a haze of firing which it can convince the international community is either Pakistan’s fault or a part of the normal fog of war. India finds it convenient to do so because world leaders find it difficult to take a clear stand. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, during his a visit to Islamabad on Thursday expressed concern, urged restraint and advised both countries to seek a lasting solution to the dispute. What Johnson did not mention was that India is not interested in a solution within the UN framework and it is only with pressure from countries like his that things can see improvement. The Pakistani state and government officials have condemned India and promised retaliation. Pakistan has to adopt such a posture to try and deter India from wantonly attacking civilians in the future. But this is one area where we have to do more.

We need to forcefully point out at press conferences with international leaders that India is deliberately targeting civilians in both Pakistan and Kashmir and ask the world community how it can turn a blind eye to such aggression. It also needs to be stressed at every forum that the LoC firing and the occupation of Kashmir are connected since India uses them as a distraction from its crimes in the valley. We need to show that Narendra Modi is not only continuing the longstanding Indian policy but doubling down on the violence in both Kashmir and across the LoC as well as intensifying an anti-Pakistan propaganda campaign. Modi may be the worst yet but he is the natural endpoint of a state that has either ignored or celebrated the brutality of its illegal occupation. There must be an urgent search for answers. Outgoing COAS General Raheel Sharif has already conducted a meeting at the corps commander level to review the situation. The civilian government also needs to put together a strategy and decide how best to act. War is never an option but neither is the kind of aggression being carried out by the Indian military.

A persecuted community

Myanmar’s persecution of the Rohingya Muslim minority in the country seems to have been largely ignored by the international community. But just because the Rohingya have not been spoken about does not mean that their persecution has stopped. The so-called democratic transition in Myanmar was supposed to help stop some of the worst excesses against the Rohingya community. Very quickly, however, it became clear that Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and her party did not hold a different perspective on the Rohingya, with Suu Kyi herself referring to them as Bengalis – trying to assert their foreignness. Now we find out that there has been a new bout of violence against them. Human Rights Watch has confirmed that at least 500 Rohingya houses in five villages were destroyed over the last weekend in the Rakhine province. Thousands of Rohingya were forced to flee from their households while hundreds have attempted to enter Bangladesh to seek refuge. Calls to allow international observers to investigate the persecution of the Rohingya have been met with disregard from the Myanmar government, which has continued to show disregard for any human rights abuses against the community.

Myanmar has persecuted the Rohingya Muslim minority for a long time now, and Buddhist extremists have driven tens of thousands of Rohingya out of their homes. Now, the Myanmar military is displacing thousands of Rohingya again in the name of a counterinsurgency operation after an attack on police officers in October. There are credible allegations of Burmese soldiers looting, killing people and raping women. The government itself had announced it would destroy over 2,500 homes and 600 commercial structures in mostly Rohingya inhabited areas. Despite the serious human rights concerns regarding Myanmar, international sanctions on the country were removed in September – citing the country’s newfound ‘respect for human rights’. It is clear that there is no change in the attitude of the democratic government in the country towards one of the world’s most persecuted ethnic communities. The Rohingya who have made it to the Bangladesh border have not been allowed to enter. The Rakhine province is home to around one million Rohingya. The ongoing persecution of the Rohingya requires a serious and focused international effort. Unfortunately, the Rohingya don’t seem to have many advocates for their cause. For any positive results, international pressure has to be put on the Myanmar government to give them full recognition or face complete international isolation.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Fond goodbyes

The scenes at the Prime Minister’s House on Thursday were without recent precedent. An army chief was retiring without having fallen out with the civilian leadership. He had not overstayed his welcome or been forced to retire. The bonhomie between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif seemed genuine and borne out of a mutual respect. The prime minister was generous in his praise for the outgoing army chief, noting he had always led from the front and played a pivotal role in shaping security within the country. More important were General Sharif’s words of praise for his namesake. General Sharif was generous in calling the prime minister a man who offered him consistent support and understanding. The silence from the military on the PM’s role then has then been broken. The good terms between the two men who have been at the helm of affairs since 2013 are a good sign for all. Much had been made of the alleged unease between the civilian and military leadership of the country. There had been successive rumours of rebukes, reprimands and interference of various kinds. Not only that, political adventurers, unsure of their ability to succeed through the ballot, had been brazenly inviting the army to intervene and to actually take over. Then, there was speculation that General Raheel Sharif would ‘get’ an extension, accompanied by open demands that he should certainly do so. It is for the good of the institution he represents, for the country and for himself that he disappointed those who would see his glory tainted for their own ends.

What in fact the banquet at the PM House afforded was the opportunity to reflect on the progress off the battlefield, specifically in terms of relations between the military and the civilians. The genuine warmth that existed between the two Sharifs speaks to how they were able to work together. Nawaz Sharif remarked at the banquet how Raheel Sharif hailed from a family of army men and during his time as army chief he lived up to that tradition of serving the nation first. And that tradition was greatly served by maintaining good relations with the prime minister. What we saw at the PM House banquet was not forced or mere ceremony. The prime minister will now choose from the names of senior generals forwarded to him for appointment as the new COAS. An important tradition has been re-established. General Sharif has demonstrated that he is indeed a man of true professionalism. His is an example that must be emulated.

Parliament pays

Who says the spirit of political cooperation is dead? The federal cabinet – itself made up of parliamentarians – has approved a mind-boggling increase of nearly 150 percent in the basic salaries of members of the National Assembly and Senate, and smaller increases in the salaries of the NA Speaker and Senate Chairman. As expected, there has not been a peep of protest from the opposition benches, normally so vocal in condemning the government enriching itself. When it comes to the political class divvying up the spoils of power, they are all happy to partake. The government is using accounting tricks to justify this increase. Information Minister Mariyum Aurangzeb said the current salary of Rs60,996 a month is not sufficient in the face of rampant inflation. She would be correct if parliamentarians actually had to make do with that amount. But the true monetary value of public service comes in the perks. Parliamentarians have all their expenses paid for, be it utility bills, travel or housing allowances. Some of the luxuries they are given, such as 20 business class airline tickets a year, hardly show them to be mired in poverty. And there is no one to challenge the necessity of these expenses since everyone benefits from them.

The information minister had to really stretch it to explain why parliamentarians had to award themselves this scandalous pay raise. She claimed that members of the National Assembly and the Senate are not very affluent, and directed the media to check their asset declaration forms. It takes a lot of daring to cite tax returns and wealth declaration for the supposed penury of parliamentarians, when stories of assets being hidden and taxes being dodged are no secret. To get a true sense of their wealth, one need only see the cars in which members pull up during National Assembly sessions. Their watches, bespoke suits and handbags cost more than most Pakistanis make in a year. Politics in this country is a game played by the rich to make themselves richer while pretending to help the rest of us. The decks are already so stacked against those not born into wealth that the least we can expect of our representatives is to temporarily put aside their hunger to make more for themselves and serve the public. This year, the government has increased both its own wage and the minimum wage. The former increase is nearly 150 percent while the latter was less than 10 percent. That tells us everything we need to know about the priorities of politicians.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

A costly project

The cost of the controversial Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower project is set to increase for a fourth time – steeply – from Rs404 billion to Rs464 billion, despite around 85 percent of the project reported to have been completed. New reports suggest that the cost of electricity for the hydro power project could be as high as Rs20 per unit, which would be above the average cost of diesel-fuelled electricity generation. The Neelum-Jhelum project was hastily approved in 2002 in response to Indian plans to start the Kishenganga Project at the cost of Rs84.5 billion. How 84.5 billion has become Rs464 billion is anyone’s guess. The CEO of the Neelum-Jhelum project himself admitted earlier this month that the original design of the project was faulty but claimed that the revised plans were ‘100 percent perfect’. New tunnel boring machinery was approved midway into the project, which is another decision that has remained controversial for adding cost and time to the project. The Neelum-Jhelum project has repeatedly been mismanaged, with the cost hikes only the tip of the iceberg for why the project has cost so much and taken so long. Even now, there is no specific timeline available for when the project will become functional.

The project may be an engineering marvel if it is completed successfully but one must surely wonder whether it is worth spending around Rs500 billion to add around 950MW to Pakistan’s electricity grid. Even if the project is completed, the ongoing dispute with India over the Neelum River is nowhere near being concluded after India refused to accept the World Bank as a neutral party. If the Kishanganga project gets international approval or India decides to ignore international arbitration, the Neelum-Jhelum project could very well become a very expensive disaster. In terms of the treaty, the first country to get to the finish line on either project will be the one to have priority rights on the river. The last international arbitration on the Neelum River did not go well for Pakistan. The current Wapda chairman called the project an ill-conceived scheme from the start in a cabinet committee meeting in September. The revelations about the potential cost of tariff and another huge hike in cost are the latest in a long list of issues that make one wonder if the project was feasible to start with. It is clear that a lot of mistakes have been made while designing and building the Neelum-Jhelum project. While it makes little sense to stop the project right now, there is a need for a thorough inquiry into what went wrong.

Horror in Aleppo

The tide of the Syrian war might be turning. The Syrian rebel army suffered its biggest defeat since 2012 as it ceded major parts of East Aleppo to Syrian government forces over the weekend. The months-long siege of East Aleppo, which has left the residents of the area on the brink of starvation, has worked. Rebel-held territory in the area has been split into two, which makes the fall of Aleppo almost inevitable. As many as ten thousand residents of the area fled to government or Kurdish-controlled areas as fighting intensified and the shortage of food and medicine became worse. Last week, international aid workers claimed that the parts of Aleppo under siege had only 10 days of food and medical supplies left. At least 250,000 people, almost halg of them children, are still residing in East Aleppo and are on the brink of mass starvation. With the victory of the Syrian government troops, it seems even more unlikely that the path for UN aid will be opened up for the starving residents. In fact, it could show the Syrian government that mass starvation can work as a strategy.

The UN has described these conditions as the ‘apex of horror’ – and yet there has been little to no action taken by international actors to stem the brutal violence in Syria. Hospitals are closed and food is running low as winter is descending on Syria. It means that East Aleppo will not be able to hold its own against the Syrian government for long. There will be a mass massacre or mass starvation – that is the choice confronting those still in the area. Neither of these possibilities will end the five-year old conflict in Syria. Winning control over Aleppo would only be a symbolic victory for the Syrian government. It simply cannot militarily win the ongoing war. Nor can rebel forces. That is why anti-government fighters agreed to allow UN aid to flow into East Aleppo. Coming amidst renewed claims of the use of chemical weapons on civilian populations by the Syrian government, international inaction over the Syrian conflict seems even more criminal. A UN inquiry has confirmed the use of chemical weapons by both the Syrian government and Isis. Anywhere between two and ten chlorine attacks have been reported to occur within the last fortnight. As this situation unfolds, the international community has appeared more clueless than ever before on how to handle the Syrian conflict. With Donald Trump set to take charge as president in the US, it seems that the old paradigm on a ‘minus Assad’ solution for Syria might be ditched. It seems stakeholders are ready to allow mass starvation to take place so they can win back Aleppo. This is no solution to war.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)