Peshawar killings

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The suicide bombing that killed three people, including two women, in Peshawar breaks from past pattern. It appears to be the result of rivalry between two militant organizations. The toll could have been far greater had the bomber not been spotted as he neared the house where the funeral of a militant killed previously in a car-bomb incident was taking place. Even so, as this is written, small children who were among the 15 injured continue to lie at Lady Reading Hospital. The gang war that has broken out involving the Taliban-backed Ansarul Islam and the Lashkar-i-Islam led by the Bara-based Mangal Bagh, which is believed to be behind the latest bombing, is a deadly development. It threatens to turn Peshawar and other places into areas where criminals run virtually amok with access to suicide bombers whom they can apparently unleash at will, creating much greater mayhem each time.

This situation is of course an outcome of the failure of those at the helm to act in the past against militant militias in various parts of the country. Many familiar with the chain of events are convinced Mangal Bagh and others like him were creations of agencies that wished to use them for their own purposes. Such men have today broken away from central control. The breakdown of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, with three different names put forward from various quarters as the new leader of the group, suggests there may be a still bigger process of splintering. A similar sequence led to the emergence of nearly a dozen groups in Punjab over the past decade, some of them locked in bitter hatred for each other. The killings in Peshawar point to the need for urgent action. We must prevent one of our biggest cities from turning into a theatre of war where two ruthless forces engage in a power tussle. The ban imposed on these groups must be enforced and their leaders apprehended under the law. Otherwise we will see no end to the cycle of death that has already destroyed too many lives and threatens to claim yet more in the future.

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Minus one?

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

As conjecture continues to build over the possibility of a plan to dump the president, while keeping the present setup intact, the prime minister has denied that any 'minus-one' formula exists. He has also termed rumour on this count to be nothing more than a conspiracy against the PPP government in the centre. Till now, criticism of the so-called plan had come mainly from supporters of President Zardari. The prime minster's words suggest that the much talked-of rift within the ruling party could be based on nothing more than rumour and that no definite divide between his office and that of the president exists. This, in many ways, is good news. Whereas there are undoubtedly many in the country who have lost all faith in the president, there is a need to follow some principle. Mr Zardari was elected, in a clear-cut victory, by all four provincial assemblies. For this reason he has the right to complete his tenure. This is especially true as his ouster would involve forces outside the elected setup, and their role would amount to a grave blow for democracy.

This having been said, there is a need to create greater stability and to give people a sense of order. The prime minister has said on several occasions that parliament can do away with Article 58(2)(b) and that the PPP government is indeed committed to this. Such a move could solve two problems in one go: It would restore the parliamentary system as laid down in the 1973 Constitution and end the damaging dichotomy of power that has been a constant source of instability. And if the presidential office becomes, once more, a ceremonial one, this could help satisfy those who believe Mr Zardari is damaging the country or intervening in decisions at all levels. In this sense the prime minister's comments are welcome. What we need desperately at the moment is calm. Further turmoil would act only to add to the damage our economy and our politics have already suffered. The focus of everyone who wishes to contribute to the future welfare of Pakistan must be to discourage internal conspiracies and instead focus full attention on the major problems that need to be solved.

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Afghan uncertainty

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

There are up to 225 allegations of irregularity in the Afghan election held last week and the outcome is still unknown – but hotly contested on all sides. Some of the allegations are of sufficient substance and gravity as to have a bearing on the final result. Currently, both the incumbent Hamid Karzai and former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah claim to be ahead in the vote count, and some of Karzai's supporters are saying that their candidate has had a landslide victory capturing 70 per cent of the vote. Abdullah has made claims on national and international media that the vote was rigged and that fraud was widespread. The preliminary results of the presidential election are expected in a few days, but will be subject to Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) investigation. The turnout was low, there was intimidation and violence and 'irregularities' were expected by those monitoring the process.

It is becoming clear that Hamid Karzai may have to share power. This is a less-than-ideal outcome for the sponsors of this exercise in democracy – Britain, Canada and Germany plus the US – who will view with concern a protracted post-electoral wrangle. They will want to 'move on' as swiftly as possible as uncertainty or dispute about the outcome of the lection will inevitably read across to the poor and deteriorating security situation. For the US and Britain they are facing an increasingly sceptical public, who are less and less likely to 'buy' the war as days go by. An ABC news/Washington Post poll released last week showed that US public support for the war in Afghanistan has declined sharply, with more than half the US for the first time saying the war is not worth fighting – 51 per cent say it isn't, 47 per cent say it is. For the coalition that has invested lives and treasure in the Afghan conflict; having a contested or provably corrupt election will make justification of involvement to their own electorates increasingly difficult. It is going to come down to either a 'clean' second-round victory for one of the candidates or a deal between Karzai and Abdullah. The run-off if it happens will be in October; but a deal could be struck earlier than that and perhaps be a better outcome for all – except, perhaps, Hamid Karzai.

Outing truth

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A political leader has once again raised the issue of a national truth and reconciliation commission, an idea that has been aired several times in recent months. Altaf Hussain has made his call for 'truth and reconciliation' in the light of statements made by two former military officers about the so-called 'Jinnahpur' map, and the 1992 operation by the army aimed at the MQM. The now retired officers have revealed the 'map' as a figment of somebody's imagination and the operation against the MQM as an attempt to ignite factional conflicts. Such confessional statements may enlighten and inform us about a set of historical events but they are far from truth and reconciliation; and the establishment of a national body for truth and reconciliation is a vast and complex task. It would need to cover more than the grievances of the MQM and some have suggested that a similar body should be constituted to examine the Musharraf years.

Are we ready for such an outing of the truth here? In truth, almost certainly not. In countries where truth and reconciliation commissions have run there was a clear turning point in their national history. Above all there was a yearning desire for change, a root-and–branch difference between the way things would be done henceforward and the way they were done before. There was a desire to end violence, to forgive but not forget, rather remember and learn. There was unity – not complete, ever, but a unity of the majority. That unity crossed cultural, class, religious and ethnic divides. We fulfil none of those most basic of criteria. Primarily, we are not at a turning point, we are in a continuity, a politico-military cycle that has not yet ended definitively as the army is 'standing back' from politics but cannot be said to be completely disengaged. We are also in a feudal continuum where power and property are concentrated in the hands of a narrow stratum. Neither of these states of being is set to change, nor do they desire change – another prerequisite of an effective truth and reconciliation commission. Similarly, in terms of crossing faith divides we are light-years away from sectarian reconciliation, let alone interfaith. Truth and reconciliation commissions have (mostly) worked where nations have reached a point in their maturation process that allows the space to be created where uncomfortable truths may be heard in the knowledge that they will not trigger a bloody revenge. We have no such maturity, nor is it imminent, and our inclination, sadly, is to find a scapegoat and pursue a bitter retribution.

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Shall we dance?

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The latest statement by Prime Minister Gilani to the effect that the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and former president Pervez Musharraf's trial are two separate issues that should not be interlinked takes us no nearer resolving the matter. Clearly the PPP has little or no intention of hastening the judicial process and the smaller parties in the PPP-led coalition are said to be 'indifferent' to a trial under Article 6 of the constitution no matter there is a parliamentary resolution or not. Lawyers and pundits pontificate endlessly on the various permutations of the 'shall we prosecute Musharraf' debate and all those participating in this circular dance state their position to be 'clear' in every respect.

What does seem clear is that Mr Sharif would like to have the general's head on a plate in the centre of his dining table, but to get to that position he is going to have to carry parliament with him, and his chances of doing that seem remote in the extreme. The creation of any kind of consensus among the parliamentary groups -- and particularly with the MQM and the PML-Q -- is going to be a Sisyphean task. The smaller parties are said to be committed to backing the PPP in taking a final decision on Musharraf's trial, but all are maintaining a wary distance. The JUI-F has said it has no intention of tabling a resolution and seems of the opinion that this is a job for the heavy-hitters and that it will 'read the resolution' and decide which way it will swing when it comes – if it comes – to a vote. Simply put, it is all going to hinge around the support of the smaller parties if there is to be a parliamentary majority for passing a resolution or an act of parliament that would preface any trial. And nobody, it seems, wants to dance with Mr Sharif.

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Domestic discord

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The Council of Islamic Ideology has expressed 'reservations' over the private bill against domestic violence passed by the National Assembly. The bill seeks to protect 'women, children and other vulnerable persons' with whom the accused is engaged in a domestic relationship, against gender-based violence or physical and psychological abuse of other kinds. The CII's objections hinge around several core issues: firstly it believes the law could push up the rate of divorce, secondly it objects to police intervention in domestic matters and lastly it states that measures for protection against abuse were already present in other laws which needed simply to be more effectively implemented. The CII also holds that the law is 'discriminatory' in that old men or others could also be the victims of domestic abuse.

All this makes little sense. Across the world, specific laws exist to safeguard women and children. The rate of domestic violence is terrifyingly high in Pakistan. According to past reports by Amnesty International and other watchdog bodies, up to 70 per cent of women in the country suffer it in one form or the other. And as for that old bogie of divorce – it is hard to say what connections have been drawn up or why it would be better to have women beaten up at home rather than separated from such a situation. One can't help feel that the CII is a little miffed. Its own recommendations regarding changes in the Muslim Family Laws of 1961 were sent back to it by the National Assembly for review after the religious lobby raised an outcry over the suggestions that the divorce process be simplified and other rights protected. In this light the recent comments about divorce seem rather ironical. It is the broader picture that must be kept in mind by everyone engaged in the process, so the goal of safeguarding them against brutality can be effectively met.

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Buried at last

Thursday, August 27, 2009

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan has finally decided to put an end to the lingering confusion over the death of Baitullah Mehsud. The man who seems to have emerged as the new leader of the outfit, Hakimullah Mehsud, has confirmed that the ex-amir is indeed dead. The murder of the father-in-law and other kin of Baitullah, on suspicion that they may have given him away, is proof that the group remains as ruthless as ever. But it is also true it has been weakened. The rival claims to leadership heard over the past weeks underscore this. It is indeed still not clear if Hakimullah's leadership will be challenged or indeed how he has been chosen. The question now is whether the TTP will be allowed to re-build and reassemble itself around a new leader or whether it will be delivered a death blow now that some of its weaknesses have been exposed. Naturally, we must all hope the authorities are working to a plan of action and will go after the Taliban at a time when they are vulnerable.

We must all speak with one voice against militancy. When acts of violence committed by the Taliban or other groups are covered, this must be done with responsibility. Already, in Swat and other conflict-hit zones, people have begun to speak out against the militants. These voices need to be projected more widely. Propaganda and the building of opinion is after all a potent weapon in any war. It is time these tools were used to deliver a final defeat to the Taliban and by doing so make Pakistan a safer place for everyone living within its frontiers.

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In the ring

Thursday, August 27, 2009

The hand of the so-called 'establishment', that shadowy entity comprising the army, the bureaucracy and the agencies among other forces, has long been a part of politics in Pakistan. The coming and going of governments, the downfall of individuals and all kinds of other events are attributed to it. But today, we apparently find this powerful entity locked in what appears to be an internal dilemma. According to a report in this newspaper and rumours that drift across Islamabad's leafy avenues, elements within the establishment are engaged in an all-out effort to discredit Nawaz Sharif, a man whose political career is said to have begun with the support of the same lobby. The purpose appears to be to save former president Musharraf from trial – and possibly by exposing or threatening to expose misdeeds from the past – pressurising Sharif to abandon the strident position he has taken on the issue. It has been alleged that key figures have attempted to use the media to advance their stance and that a Karachi-based political party is also being used for the same purpose.

The tussle is a fascinating one in many ways. The PML-N, which insists it will not back down, has for the first time come up directly against those with whom it is said, in the past, to have worked with hand in glove. The accounts also suggest that as many suspect, the army is indeed keen to save a former chief and by doing so keep intact the notion that the men who wear khaki cannot be touched and ride above the law of the land. There have been some suggestions that Nawaz Sharif may still have supporters in powerful places who are willing to back him against Musharraf – thus opening up a distinct divide.

As has happened before, such events also act to throw light on some of the more murky deeds in our history. Sadly these are many. The continued lack of access to information means that truths about corruption rackets or other equally dark deeds rarely surface unless somebody wants to throw back the dust covers and expose such goings-on, to serve their own purposes. As such, there is a possibility, as the power struggle hinged around Musharraf continues, that more facts may emerge from the past. These could help satisfy curiosity and give the public more information about leaders. The risk though of course is that accuracy will be lost amidst the effort to score points. It is impossible for the present to predict who the winner will be in the ongoing tussle. But what it does underscore is the powerful role the establishment still plays in our set-up and how difficult it indeed is to distance the military from events in the political sphere.

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Much as before

Thursday, August 27, 2009

The Obama presidency has reached the end of the beginning, and he is shortly off on holiday for ten days but with little by way of a real break from the job. He is grappling with the eternal problem of domestic health care and the economy, and juggling with America's place in the world – but we can today see how similar his administration's foreign policy positions are to that of his immediate predecessor. Perhaps more than any other aspect of the job, American presidents inherit a foreign policy which at a purely personal level they may have disagreements with, but in practical terms are able to do little in the short-term to radically alter. Presidents everywhere have to operate in the real world once they come into post – a world which may be somewhat removed from the rhetoric of the campaign that got them where they are today.

Despite what we may be inclined to believe the American president is bound by considerable constraint and as far as foreign policy goes he has few options. They cannot willy-nilly rewrite the script from minute one in office and old relationships need careful servicing and above all a sense of continuity. He has held on to Bush's Defence Secretary Roberts Gates and continued with Bush's 'phased withdrawal' in Iraq rather than his own promised swift end to an unpopular war. The relationship with Russia has not been 'reset' as advertised and France and Germany have refused to commit to his foreign policy efforts as they refused to commit to those of G W Bush. He has put more boots on the ground in Afghanistan and at the same time is testing the water for a political accommodation with the Taliban – as had the Bush administration in its latter days. A flock of 'special representatives' now flies hither and thither with Mr Holbrooke prominent and present a 'new face' to us here in Pakistan. 'New dialogue'… 'new money' – but in reality not much has changed, just the same pill with a sweeter coating. It would be churlish in the extreme to suggest that nothing has changed in the way Obama conducts his foreign policy as compared to Bush, because it has and will – but carefully nuanced and inflected and with a cool eye to making a successful presidency.

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The flour frontline

Friday, August 28, 2009

As happens every year, the advent of Ramazan has seen a hike in food prices. Many commodities, including atta and sugar, are being sold at inflated prices at most selling points. The Punjab government has indeed resorted to increasingly desperate measures to control prices in the province. Sugar millers have been warned to bring stocks to the market or face an open sale while a decision has reportedly been taken to flood the market with flour, by increasing the wheat release by up to 90 per cent, thus forcing down prices. But the situation is a rather complex one. The supply of atta by the government at cheaper rates to tandoors for the provision of roti at subsidised prices, and to Friday markets, means people have been buying sacks of the item at one point and selling them at higher rates elsewhere. Those living below the poverty line are said also to be engaged in this lucrative game, leading to suggestions that systems of checks against double and triple buying be put in place. The issuance of ration cards or of using indelible ink to mark buyers purchasing at subsidised rates is one suggestion – though this could mean other members of the same household could buy the flour, turn by turn.

The situation points to the complexities of controlling prices. Even schemes intended to assist the poor appear to have indirectly contributed to rising market prices. Ordinary people, especially the middle-class, reluctant to accept what they see as government 'hand-outs' suffer worst. During a time of year when expenses rise in many homes, they must also keep up appearances. It is quite clear that the issue of commodity pricing and measures to enforce the rates set by the government is one that needs to be taken up as a priority, so that some rationality can be introduced and the current uncontrolled rate of inflation checked.

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Dirty deeds

Friday, August 28, 2009

The statement by former ISI chief Lt-Gen Asad Durrani before the Supreme Court that he had transferred large sums of money to named politicians, to bolster the IJI election campaign in 1990, is another reminder of the close nexus between agencies and political happenings. Nearly 15 years after the event, excerpts from the statement have been broadcast by Geo TV. While the involvement of the then army chief and president in the effort to weaken the PPP, ousted in 1990 and defeated in the elections that followed, is hardly news – the revelations regarding funds which went into selected accounts will embarrass a number of politicians. Most significant at this time, among the names given out by Durrani, is that of Mian Nawaz Sharif. Even if the stories that have suddenly started to emerge are motivated by an attempt to silence Sharif as he continues to demand the trial of ex-president Musharraf, they do inflict on him considerable damage. The PML-N has long been seen as the 'front' for the establishment; there are those who believe its victory in the 1996 polls was also 'assisted' to ensure for it an overwhelming majority in parliament. The role for the party in opposition to the military since 1999, when Sharif was ousted, was an unusual one – and in some ways at least remains so.

But this factor aside, the evidence emerging of the extent of agencies' involvement in political events is telling. It brings into question the very nature of our democracy; we must ask how much of the expensive electoral process we go through is in fact tampered with or manipulated. Even politicians who have repeatedly taken the moral high ground on various issues have been named on the latest list. They can attempt to justify accepting the money which, ostensibly, came from the Karachi 'business community'. But the hard fact is that bribes were accepted and there is no way of getting around this. Now that these details have begun to surface, there is a need to ponder certain issues. Somehow we need to distance the military from politics. Its involvement makes the use of money to lure politicians even more damaging then the corruption involving electoral funds that exists in so many nations. Perhaps the fact that past misdeeds have now come out into the open is also a reminder to politicians that they cannot expect to get away scot-free with wrongdoing. This may serve as some kind of lesson for the future and introduce an era of greater accountability in our politics.

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Bugti's legacy

Friday, August 28, 2009

Nawab Akbar Bugti leaves behind a curious legacy. Through much of his life he was a figure seen associated with the Pakistan 'establishment', opposed to Baloch nationalism and those who stood for it. In the months before his death, and especially after it, he has been turned into a martyr representing the Baloch cause and indeed giving up his life for it. The strike observed in parts of Quetta and in several other districts of Balochistan on the Bugti's third death anniversary testifies to this. The anniversary also saw protests and rallies condemning his killing and demanding autonomy for Balochistan. The present government came in for harsh criticism at some of these meetings for failing to live up to promises regarding addressing the grievances of the people of Balochistan and for doing nothing to bring the killers of the late tribal chief to justice. These calls are a reminder of the feelings that run through Balochistan. The people of the province are obviously in no mood to either forget or forgive those who they believe murdered Bugti. There can be little doubt that the policies that saw Bugti being killed and the military operation during which this happened, have done nothing to dampen the demand of nationalists. Indeed their cause has grown bigger and assumed more force.

The failure of such tactics needs to be acknowledged in the context of evolving a wider strategy to address the needs of Balochistan. This can be effectively achieved only if people are involved and all the Baloch groups that represent them engaged in the peace process. It is unfortunate that this effort has not already been initiated. As a result, goodwill has been lost and mistrust has grown. This will make the task of ending bitterness in Balochistan harder. To achieve this, the unresolved issues stemming from the mysterious death of Bugti, ostensibly in a mountain hide-out, should be inquired into by an independent commission. The truth must come forward. Only then will it be possible to construct a new relationship based on greater trust and a willingness to work together to build a stronger nation.

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Women & policing

Monday, August 31, 2009

Women police officers are rarely visible anywhere nationally. Some are beginning to appear as traffic police in Lahore and Karachi and they are occasionally glimpsed in Islamabad. Data on the numbers of women who are police officers is almost as scarce as the officers themselves, with only Punjab having an online breakdown of female police posts by rank and number on a website that is a model of clarity and navigability. As a nation we remain deeply ambivalent about women having any sort of role in public life outside the traditional jobs of nurse, doctor, bank clerk and accountant and teacher. Despite this, there are signs that things are changing as social mobility increases and the need for another working hand in the family is ever-more pressing, and the police service is increasingly becoming a career option for women.

Things are even changing for women in places like NWFP. We welcome the announcement that the NWFP government has decided to deploy female police officials at various bazaars around Peshawar during Ramazan. Police sources say that they will patrol in Meena Bazaar, Jinnah Street in Saddar and University Town. Further, women serving in the traffic police will also be given ‘special duties’ during Ramazan with the emphasis on providing security for women. This is a considerable move forward from the position recorded by researchers from the University of Bergen in 2004 which revealed that policewomen are not allowed to leave the door-step of the their police station without the permission of the senior male police officers. It is possible that this may still be the case, but the fact that women police are to openly patrol with a mandate to specifically protect women in areas which women frequent is in itself several steps in the right direction. If it is possible in NWFP then it is possible in other provinces as well, but women remain poorly integrated into a service that is completely dominated by men and have yet to establish an authority-base which would give them a national voice.

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Cautious optimism

Monday, August 31, 2009

More than 80 per cent of the 2.3 million IDPs who fled in the face of a determined onslaught on the Taliban have now returned home and the operation to repatriate the IDPs has gone reasonably well. There have been choke-points caused by very necessary check-posts and not all of the financial arrangements for those returning have worked as they should, but it could have been a lot worse. Aid workers are expressing concern that those returned are at risk as the military continues with ‘mopping up’ operations but in an interesting development that bodes well for the future, it seems that the worm has turned for the Taliban. Lt-Gen Ahmed, chairman of the Special Support Group for the displaced, has told Reuters that the people who had returned were now helping to identify and track-down those who had previously terrorised them. He said… “They are ones who are saying to us ‘we will take you to the tunnels, we will take you to the caches, we will take to the places where they have been storing ammunition and explosives and suicide jackets’.”

If nothing else this points to a return of confidence in the army by those they are there to protect. Lt-Gen Ahmed was also realistic in his assessment of the short- and medium-term prospects. He said it was going to take (unspecified) time to stop a large-scale insurgency such as the one seen recently but this did not mean that people could not lead a nearly-normal life as it wound down. Insurgencies may take decades to finally end, he said, and instanced Sri Lanka, India and Afghanistan in our own region as recent examples. There is far to go but there are, at last, grounds for cautious optimism. We fought for this land and these people – now we have to hold it, for all our sakes.

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Home truths

Monday, August 31, 2009

America seems to be going through a process of awakening, and gaining a more realistic sense of itself and how others perceive it in the process. It is difficult to comprehend the depth of hatred felt by many in Pakistan and across the world for the US. It finds its outlet in all manner of ways from flag burning to open warfare, and it is a hatred that has grown exponentially since 9/11. An early attempt to understand why America is so hated was made with the book titled ‘Why do people hate America’ (Sardar and Davies, 2001) and finds its latest exposition in an article originally written for the official military journal Joint Force Quarterly by none other than the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, Admiral Mike Mullen. He writes that no amount of public relations exercises will repair the credibility of the US if American behaviour overseas continues to be perceived as ‘arrogant, uncaring or insulting’ — which it not infrequently is, whether it be by design or accident. Mullen offers a simple yet profound insight…“To put it simply, we need to worry a lot less about how to communicate our actions and much more about what our actions communicate.” In other words what do our actions as a state say to others, how do they perceive and understand us as a consequence of what we do?

Writing about the problem that America has in countering the highly effective Al Qaeda propaganda machine he comments that the organisation lives among the people, and is able to control and intimidate from within, and not using a megaphone to shout from the sidelines. American messages to counter Al Qaeda…“lack credibility, because we haven’t invested enough in building trust and relationships, and we haven’t always delivered on promises.” Mullen cuts right to the core of the problem with this statement, and acknowledges that America can be shown to be untrustworthy and duplicitous, and cannot be trusted to keep its word – and as America is currently engaged in warfare with states and peoples where a man’s word and honour is paramount it is not difficult to see where the trust deficit comes from. Translating this level of insight and self-awareness into hard policy is not going to be easy, but the good news is that America has the rest of the Obama presidency to turn the ship around – though hate is one of those emotions that take millennia to abate.

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Abuse rampant

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Were the government ever to devise a heraldic coat of arms for itself it would comprise a green-and-white shield surmounted by a fat cat sitting astride a starving peasant. A report in this newspaper details the government working with big business to inflate the price of sugar and then killing off an attempt to investigate its doing so. There is to be no judicial or criminal probe into the activities of the sugar lobby that now waddles towards Eid secure in the knowledge that it has the government firmly in its pocket. A key cabinet committee has been subverted and the government's finance minister has had his arm twisted and told to 'take it easy' in respect of exposing those at the heart of the scam.

As if the sugar scandal were not enough we have another layer of the Great Power Cock-up exposed. The federal cabinet has overturned a decision by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) to limit power purchases from rental power projects to 1,500 MW by upping it by 75 per cent to 2,250 MW from the rental power providers. Shaukat Tarin has again been made to look a fool as he is on recent public record as saying that he was opposed to the rental power projects and that minimal use should be made of them because of the cripplingly high cost of power produced by them – and now we are committed to purchasing their expensive volts at a time when the global oil price has peaked at a 10-month high of $75 per barrel. Just in time to feed through to our energy sector and further inflate the cost of the power we only intermittently receive. Were any of this blatant manipulation of the prices of core products and services to have been exposed in a country where ethical governance and the rule of law actually mattered, there would have been crowds outside parliament calling for an election and the prosecution of those responsible. But they were exposed here in the Land of the Pure. So nothing happens. Democracy? No thanks, it gets in the way of business.

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New offensive

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

The PML-N remains on the offensive, but its targets seem to be changing. In yet another fiery press talk the party's information secretary has warned the PPP that it has 48 hours in which to end its campaign attacking the party, or face revelations about its own wrongdoings on various fronts. Ahsan Iqbal has warned that these are many and varied, relating to the IDPs, contracts of various kinds and so on. Who could have believed that not so long ago, the two parties had sworn to stand together and work for democracy. Indeed, just weeks ago, the prime minister and PML-N leaders happily broke bread together and spoke of the advantages of 'understanding'. So, what has happened to bring about so dramatic a change in fortunes? It appears that the agencies have succeeded once more in dividing political forces. The onslaught of 'revelations' we have seen over the past few days, from one ex-serviceman after the other, has had its impact – leaving the two major parties at loggerheads. This perhaps was the purpose of the whole exercise.

What it means is that those behind whatever games are being played will be better able to orchestrate matters. They are after all past masters at this. By ending any possibility of cooperation between the parties they have strengthened their own position. We still do not know if they have allies in this from within the spectrum of parties. But regardless of whether or not this is so, it is apparent that the establishment remains determined to keep cards in its hand. The dream of military disengagement from politics is just that – a dream and nothing more. Unfortunately it seems our parties too abide by the dogma of the law of necessity. For all the talk, all the statements, they are unwilling to give up their deep-rooted belief that to stay in power or to attain it the establishment must be kept happy. They do not seem either to have realised that much could be gained by standing together and working to build a tomorrow where parliament and political representatives are truly sovereign. The events we have seen recently show that external forces can still, quite easily, determine how things unfold – and this means we remain many miles away from the true democracy that people seek.

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Petrol price hike

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Petrol prices have gone up by Rs4.80 a litre to just over Rs65. The government says that the decision comes in response to a rise in the price of oil in global markets. The opposition has lashed out in criticism demanding the price hike be reversed. Other petroleum items have become costlier too, including kerosene oil which lights the stoves of the poor. Following the hike, the government estimates Rs8 billion will be collected in September through the petroleum levy. People everywhere are meanwhile desperately doing their household maths to see what it will mean for them. Most wonder, at a time when inflation is already rampant and wages have failed to keep pace, how they will manage and whether any corners remain to be cut.

The rise in the cost of fuel of course means that as transporters raise their rates, the price of virtually every commodity will go up. This comes at a time when consumers are already struggling to cope with the Ramazan hike that has had an impact on virtually every household. Despite attempts by provincial governments and city administrations, there has at best been only partial success in controlling profiteering. The oil price increase also revives criticism based around the perception that while gains in international markets are immediately passed on, the same principal does not apply when the global price drops. Courts too have taken note of this in the past. The latest surge will reignite the controversy, especially as it comes at a time when the opposition is searching for issues that can be used against the government, which seems just a year and a half after it came to power to be facing a growing popularity crunch.

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Sugar shortage

Thursday, September 03, 2009

The Economic Coordination Council has given the go ahead for the import of sugar. It has also, at a meeting chaired by the finance minister, acknowledged that the government has been unable to supply sugar at the subsidized rate and a serious shortfall persists. The ECC has called for action to be taken against deviant mills. A number who have failed to comply have been identified. We must hope that punitive measures are swift and can have the required deterrent effect. We have seen similar crises involving sugar supply in the past. The failure to take effective action then has led to the present situation. What needs to be done now is to take measures that will save us from encountering the same state of affairs in the future.

It has also become quite clear that people with influence within the government have been involved. It is imperative that they not be protected. A full inquiry is needed. The lobby must be dealt with. It has already caused not only losses to the exchequer but also considerable difficulties to people already hard-hit by the price hike. The standing of the government has been affected. The failure to bring sufficient sugar into the markets has now been conceded. This is a good first step. The next must be to investigate why this happened so there is no repetition in the future.

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A distant dream

Thursday, September 03, 2009

The battle to improve the state and status of women in our society will go far into the future. The latest skirmish in the running fight between those who would keep women subjugated and those who seek to loosen the cultural bonds is around the recently passed domestic violence bill. The Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) has expressed 'reservations' about the bill on the grounds that it is likely to push up the divorce rate and that weak and elderly men need protection from the depredations of wily and violent women. Quite rightly, these 'reservations' have been rejected by the National Commission on the Status of Women (NCSW) which points out, again rightly, that a primary cause of divorce is the violence inflicted on women by men. Further, whilst there are occasional cases where it is men who are victims of domestic violence, the overwhelming majority of cases involve men inflicting violence on women, and it is this injustice that the new law seeks to redress. Broadly, civil society organisations have welcomed the bill but, as ever in this land which has no shortage of laws but a chronic unwillingness to abide by any of them, its application and enforcement are fraught with difficulty.

The NCSW has a few reservations of its own about the bill, one of them being the clause which says that if a woman is shown to have lied about an allegation she is liable to six-month imprisonment and/or a Rs50, 000 fine. Perjury is already punishable within the law and the inclusion of the 'lying' clause serves only those who might seek to discredit the evidence of a woman; and it is more likely to deter women from making a complaint than enable them to do so. No society anywhere in the world has managed to eradicate domestic violence, but some have done more than others to combat it and to ensure a level playing field for women who seek the prosecution of violent partners. We are decades behind in terms of both our attitudes to domestic violence – still considered by many to be 'a private matter' and unworthy of attention by the forces of law – and the promulgation of legislation that gives women a platform from which to combat it. A majority of men (but some more so than others) still regard women as items of property which they own. It is this mindset that must be consistently challenged by the legislature and organisations such as the NCSW. Countless thousands of women suffer domestic violence every day and it is endemic to our society. The new bill will not eradicate it, but it is a step towards the still-distant dream of women achieving their rightful place in a land riddled by misogyny.

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The Saudi card

Thursday, September 03, 2009

The centres from which political events in Pakistan are orchestrated seem varied and wide. After a week during which we have had all kinds of establishment antics, we now have the Saudis stepping in. Quite clearly, other than the people, everyone has a role to play in developments in 'democratic' Pakistan. The purpose of the phone calls from Riyadh are said to be to ensure the 'deal' struck at the time of President Musharraf's resignation are honoured. It is obviously no coincidence that the intervention has come as President Musharraf visits the Saudi capital, where he has been extended full protocol. There are a few simple facts that need to be spelled out here. The fact is that President Pervez Musharraf has broken the law of the land. It would be hard to find anyone with legal knowledge who would dispute this fact. Indeed he made a mockery of the Constitution by violating multiple provisions within it. Like any citizen, he should surely be brought to book. There is no logical reason why he should be let off.

The need to hold Musharraf accountable for his deeds is all the more important given that at this moment in history Pakistan needs to break with its troubled past. The military needs to be pushed back from politics. Its role has for too long been a source of repeated upheaval and instability. But this can be successful only if an unequivocal message is delivered and a dictator is made to answer for his actions. If this does not happen the way is paved for others to do exactly the same, knowing they will go unpunished. It is also time for the people to assert themselves. They must ask if we can truly allow a situation where events in our country are dictated by others to continue. It is true the Saudis have in the past been good allies. They have come to Pakistan's aid in times of need more than once. But should we allow anyone to act as our masters? Are we not capable of taking the fortunes of our country into our own hands? Perhaps the time has come to ensure that events that take place within the frontiers of Pakistan are determined by our laws, our wishes and by the ordinary people who live within the country and whose fortunes are tied in to political happenings within it.

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Back from the Brink

Just as suddenly as it had moved into its vicious offensive against the PPP, delivering ultimatums and warnings of dire consequences if these were not met, the PML-N seems to have taken several steps back. The ultimatum issued by the party's information secretary has been withdrawn by the party chief who has laid down several conditions in exchange for full support to the PPP. These consist essentially of an undoing of the 17th amendment and the trial of former president Musharraf. These of course are not new issues but have formed the core of PML-N demands for many months. It is hard to know what brought about the change. It has been reported that members of both parties have been holding meetings behind the scenes. There has also been concern that the animosity was deliberately created by agencies in a game to weaken the democratic setup. We have no way of knowing if this is true but certainly the hail of accounts that suddenly emerged regarding past misdeeds is suspicious.

We do not yet know what new chapters have yet to unfold. But we must hope that the parties will continue to show a greater readiness to work together. To do so they need to develop greater maturity. The question is not, as Mian Nawaz Sharif put it, of being seen as a 'friendly' opposition, but as evolving as one that is willing to work within the existing framework and accepts that any elected government has a right to complete its tenure. Criticism too should come but it needs to respect the bounds of democracy and not take the form of threats. Our major parties face a big task. It is up to them to demonstrate that they possess the awareness of the need to push aside agencies and not be swayed by their antics

Subtle signals

Friday, September 04, 2009

As a commentator on a private TV channel said on Sept 2…"We solve all our problems abroad. We send our children abroad for their education and the same with our political problems. We never seem to sort them out ourselves here at home." Thus the sight of our previous president jetting in to Saudi Arabia on an aircraft sent by the Saudi government and then being received with full protocol should not surprise us. Neither should we be surprised at the apparently coincidental arrival of assorted government figures in Saudi Arabia at the same time as a past president and not surprised either that they did not – of course they didn't – meet or have any contact whatsoever with him. And no deal regarding his future, or any trial, was even thought about let alone agreed upon and signed with a discreet handshake. No, nothing like that at all.

Much turns for us on the Saudi hinge, and it has long been the antechamber in which out-of-favour Pakistani politicians have waited for a shift in the political winds allowing their safe return to the homeland and places at the top of the governmental tree. The Saudis are happy for this cycle to continue as it allows them a degree of control over our internal affairs – and here we were fretting that America is pulling our strings behind the scenes when it was our friends from the Gulf all the time. Our politicians are not averse to the idea of a political parking-lot either, because it allows them to do nothing about solving the problems that bedevil our political system; while appearing to be busy-busy rushing around signing MOUs and opening 150-yard stretches of freshly-laid tarmac road. The Saudis have an investment – literally – in our stability and will do what they can to preserve what for them is going to be an important factor in their own future food security. Parking past presidents and politicos in Arabian palaces suits all players. The theatricality of our domestic politics is for local consumption … the real drama is being acted out in a theatre across the waters.

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Close shave

Friday, September 04, 2009

The minister for religious affairs has been extremely fortunate. He narrowly escaped death in what was apparently a determined assassination attempt in Islamabad. His driver, killed as a hail of bullets fired from two directions by the assassins who followed the car over a short distance pelted the vehicle, has not been quite as lucky. The immediate conclusions are predictable. The minister, an outspoken critic of the Taliban, had been on the hit list of extremists. His status as a scholar, opposed to the orthodox, hard line view of Islam taken by the Taliban, also made him unpopular with them. We have been seeing the Taliban enter a new phase. The recent spate of terrorist attacks, at Torkham, in Mingora and now in Islamabad shows us a force that is far from being vanquished. There have also been less dramatic attacks in other places in the northern areas. The climate we live in means that incidents that cause few or no deaths go virtually unnoticed. In the most recent case, questions also arise about security arrangements. We are told the police commandos assigned to protect the minister had not been performing their duties at the time of the attack. Is this merely coincidence, or a consequence of the inefficiency we see everywhere? Or is something more sinister involved?

The possibility of a security lapse is being mentioned. While it is true that every street corner across our country cannot be policed, there may be some benefit in looking at the training and expertise available to our police and other forces. At least as far as VIP security goes this could make a difference. Our western allies should be able to help out in this respect. But this of course will do nothing at all to deal with the attacks on policemen at pickets or on other ordinary citizens who do not have access to top-notch security. We need a strategy with many prongs. The Taliban may be preparing for a new offensive that is fiercer still than those that have come before. This is ominous. The authorities need to cast aside the smug complacency we have seen over the past few weeks and accept that the struggle ahead will be a long and hard one.

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Shoot-Out In Swat

A lashkar shot dead three militants after an hour-long gun battle in the Kabal tehsil of Swat. The area had been among those where militants had the strongest hold. Elsewhere in Swat too we are hearing of people identifying militants and in several cases handing them over to authorities. The fear that the militants had exerted has clearly begun to fade. For months local people had been unable to defy the Taliban. They speak now of the kind of terror they suffered under for months, often with great bitterness. We were also informed that support for the extremists was widespread. Indeed even the ANP government had contributed to this misperception by enforcing the Nizam-e-Adl regulation in Swat. It was said people wanted Shariah law and that there was support for those who advocated it.

The actions we are seeing now in the area suggest this is simply not accurate. People are ready to act against militants and to take matters into their own hands to do so. Most seem to hold little sympathy for them. They are indeed ready to challenge them at some risk to themselves, as the actions of the lashkar demonstrated. But there is also the fact that the militants possessed sufficient gun power to hold out for a prolonged battle. They also seemed sufficiently motivated to do so. These are somewhat ominous signs and suggest there is a need to drive home the victory that is being claimed. For the moment top militant leaders, including Maulana Fazalullah, remain free; their whereabouts are unknown and until they are apprehended the risk of some attempt at reorganization in the future will remain. The authorities need to lay out their strategy in this respect. Troops, who still man check posts and pickets across Swat and remain posted in cities, cannot be kept deployed forever. It may be necessary to think about a local force to defend Swat and perhaps the lashkars that have come up spontaneously in some places can be used for this purpose. But this should not form the lone pillar of official strategy. Events in Swat in the past have shown that, more than anything else, people seek access to equitable justice. They also seek opportunity and development. It is offering them this that will prove the hardest blow to militancy.