January 27, 2011

The scene of looming financial disaster painted by the finance minister in his briefing to the parliamentary leaders of various political parties seems even gloomier than the images presented in the past. Mr Hafeez Shaikh has warned the budget deficit could climb to eight per cent of GDP and inflation which has already taken a huge toll on the budgets of virtually everyone, could soar to 22 per cent. This of course is hardly comforting news and the political leaders have been asked to come up with suggestions to help rescue the country and prevent what could be a collapse. It can be assumed that the finance minister was attempting to create the political unity he has said is essential if there is to be any economic salvation. The discord on the RGST and the reversal of the raise in POL prices, as a result of agitation from government allies, have of course reduced revenue and perhaps disturbed the planning of Mr Shaikh and his team. The finance minister has also quite rightly pointed out the need for greater discipline by the government. But the team running the financial business of the government must also realise that the needs of people too need to be taken into consideration. It was this concern which led to the outcry over price hikes from key opposition parties. Ordinary people simply cannot be made to bear the entire brunt of economic ruin that they have played no part in creating, and this has to be kept in mind when devising policies.

There is also another aspect to the issue. While the finance minister obviously wishes to create cohesion, by emphasising just how grave the economic crisis is, his comments act also to further reduce confidence in the country. Such confidence is vital to bring in the investments that are so urgently needed and also to dissuade people from taking money away from the country. This can happen only if there is faith that matters can be brought under control and future prospects made good. Mr Shaikh needs also to consider this, as does the government as a whole. Indeed, economic stability is tied in to good governance. It will not simply appear on its own. Measures such as the RGST, favoured by Mr Shaikh, are also unrealistic in times as tough as these. Instead we need to see a tightening of official belts, an end to extravagance and control on corruption. Unless this happens the economic situation will continue to worsen, making the task of recovery all the harder. It is of course people who will suffer as a result of this.

January 28, 2011

There is a danger in reading too much into the political turbulence that is moving through Egypt, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East and the Maghrib. The unrest may indeed be a precursor to revolution, or if not revolution then a shift in political polarities that will see old regimes and dynasties swept away. Equally these may be part of an ongoing cycle of unrest and disaffection, which will eventually to ebb and populations will return to a fractious equilibrium. The revolution in Tunisia is yet a work in progress, and painful transitions – and realisations – are being worked through. The Tunisian people are discovering that deposing a despised leader does not mean an instant turning-on of the faucet of democracy – neither does it mean that all the supporters of the ancien regime have melted away or switched sides. Some of them will have to be accommodated within any new government, like it or not, and the transition from what was to what may be, is not going to be quick or easy. Notable thus far in the process is the ringing silence from Hilary Clinton, the American Secretary of State, who has yet to congratulate the Tunisian people on their efforts in the direction of democracy.

Egypt is one state where attempts to contain the ripple and prevent wave formation, could fail. Mrs Clinton thinks otherwise, saying on Tuesday that she thought that the Egyptian government was stable. Her evaluation by Wednesday was far less certain as she acknowledged the wave of dissent. She said that Egypt had…”an important opportunity to implement political, economic and social reforms that respond to legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people”. On Thursday there were mass arrests, violence in most of the major towns and cities and a possibly catalytic figure, Mohammed al Baradei, is set for a return by the end of the week. In Lebanon change is in the air as well. The noted commentator on middle eastern affairs Robert

Fisk writing in ‘The Independent’ newspaper in the UK asks…”Could it be, perhaps, that the Arab world is going to choose its own leaders? Could it be that we are going to see a new Arab world which is not controlled by the West?” Within his question is the acknowledgment that many of the governments now experiencing upheaval are western-aligned, have been for decades, and may be on the brink of choosing their own mastery. Were this to be the case then it truly would be a revolution, and whatever the unease being felt in Egypt and Lebanon may be as nothing compared to that being felt in Washington and London. Moving east and looking to ourselves, the symptoms that produced the Tunisian revolt and are fuelling the Egyptian are similar to our own – poverty, corruption, an unpopular government, and dynastic politics. Today’s ripple may be tomorrow’s wave, and revolution is in the air.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

Death by ‘diplomat’

January 29, 2011

‘Shoot first, ask questions later’ appear to be the watchwords of Mr Raymond Davis, a technical adviser at the US consulate in Lahore. There is no dispute that he shot two men in broad daylight. His first shots were fired through the windscreen of his car, and the tight grouping suggests that Davis was not an amateur when it came to firearms. There is no dispute either that he got out of his car and appeared to use his cell phone to photograph the men he had just shot – who may or may not have been trying to rob or kill him. Amateur footage taken at the scene shows a pistol lying beneath a motorbike, and a holster is clearly visible on the belt of one of the dead men as he is wheeled into hospital. The other man to die at the hands of an American on Thursday afternoon was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He was hit and killed by the back-up vehicle summoned from the US consulate in Lahore by Davis. Three dead within the space of minutes, and a host of questions.

The car that Davis was driving had false number plates. He was not on diplomatic duty at the time of the incident, and does not appear to have been one of those authorised to carry a firearm in order to protect diplomats. Davis himself is not a diplomat – the mere fact that he had a gun tells us this. Diplomats, even in Pakistan, never carry guns personally. Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said on Friday afternoon that Davis would not be accorded VIP protocol; and he was duly remanded to six days physical custody at the Cantonment Court on Friday. We need to hear, in a court of law, how these three people met their ends, and the invocation at any point of diplomatic immunity must not be an option. Taking the unsupported word of anybody under such circumstances (Davis claims to have fired in self-defence), be they American, Pakistani or any other nationality, is unacceptable. Equally unacceptable is the apparently routine carrying of firearms by some (not all) foreign staff accredited to diplomatic missions. This is no longer an academic debate. An American has killed two of our nationals; another has run over a young man and killed him. In doing so they may have done a great deal to harm the already tattered image America has in the eyes of many Pakistanis. We need to see these men standing in a court of law to answer charges, anything less would be a shameful travesty of justice. We also need to see, with the utmost urgency, a definitive statement by our government relating to the carrying of weapons by foreign nationals. There are enough trigger-happy lunatics on the loose, so let us not give anybody else a licence to kill.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

January 31, 2011

Events in Egypt are moving at a pace faster than the global diplomatic community is able to keep pace with, and while it is a little early to say that there is a revolution in progress, the possibility of a revolution taking place has increased markedly in the last twenty-four hours. The actions of President Hosni Mubarak, who has for the first time appointed a deputy for himself, has done nothing to quell the anger of the crowds calling for his ouster. The death toll in the last two days has reached 150, and there are reports of another 500 injured. The police have mostly left the scene everywhere, and the army appears to be taking a role that is less than proactive but not actively pro the demonstrators. At an international level the leaders of western governments have been contacting President Mubarak and urging him to back calls for reform, but by late on Sunday afternoon there seemed little sign that he was in any mood to comply. In an unusual move the leaders of Britain, France and Germany in a joint statement have called for free and fair elections – which if held may not produce a result that any of them are comfortable with.

Thus far the protests have been secular rather than driven by religious fervour, and fears that they may be hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood have failed to materialise. However, it is noteworthy that when elections were last held in 2005 the Muslim Brotherhood gained 20 per cent of the seats despite not having a candidate in every constituency. In the event of elections it is, therefore, reasonable to assume that the Muslim Brotherhood would be represented in any future government, though they seem unlikely to be anywhere close to gaining a popular majority. There seems little doubt that, revolution or not, the days of President Mubarak are numbered. Politically, the military have been the guarantors of every regime since 1952, and former prominent members of the military have found places in every civil administration. Now, with the political infrastructure crumbling the army may have to assume responsibility for the state, and with the state under Mubarak being the fuel of unrest, it is doubtful that the army is going to continue to support him. It is worth remembering that it was a group of junior Islamist officers who assassinated President Sadat in 1981 – thus bringing Mubarak to power. This in turn led to a suppression of the Islamists, who now have a deep well of bitterness to draw on and may see a window of opportunity opening before them. Israel will be viewing events with concern, and wondering if the relative ‘stability’ that has characterised the region since 1978 is at risk – and unless the situation is swiftly brought ‘under control’ this is a possibility. Egypt is a pivotal Arab state, and today is an engine of change in the Arab world. The consequences of those changes will inevitably impact upon us, and already serve as a stark lesson as to what happens when rulers fail to hear the voices and heed the wishes of those they rule.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

Talk of revolution

February 01, 2011

With revolution in process across parts of the Arab world, talk of a similar set of events to those currently convulsing Egypt and Tunisia occurring in Pakistan has surfaced. Over the last weekend the leader of the MQM speaking from London once again raised the ‘revolutionary’ flag, calling on security forces to join a ‘revolution’ as has already begun to happen in Egypt and in Lahore a march against any revision of the blasphemy laws saw the ‘R’ word get an airing as well. Although both events were well-attended by supporters of the respective causes, there was no sense that these meetings were in any way ‘revolutionary’ as they are in Cairo and Alexandria and Suez. There is no unity or cohesion among the disparate political and ‘religious’ groupings here. Unity of purpose is the catalyst and driving force in Egypt and Tunisia. The only flag being waved at any of the many demonstrations is that of Egypt. All are united under the national flag.

There is a burning hunger for change within the people of Pakistan too. Unsurprisingly, Prime Minister Gilani, like the rest of his government, has failed to see this. Speaking to the media in Multan he has asserted that institutions and democracy are working well in the country. He has also argued that while the national economy is under pressure it is not in crisis. There are many who would beg to differ with this rather rosy depiction. It is true, on paper at least, that Pakistan is a democracy when compared to the autocratic governments in Tunisia and Egypt. But for people this has only limited relevance when many of the elements that are feeding revolt elsewhere are present here. Dynastic politics has ossified our political systems, locked them into a self-serving and self-regenerating circus. Corruption has galloped across the land like the fifth horseman of the Apocalypse and now sits in every corner of daily life for all of us. Inflation and unemployment are as dominant a feature of life here as they are in the troubled towns of Egypt. Poverty is everywhere, the physical poverty of joblessness and homelessness, and the poverty of thought and deed that could provide a template for us to move out of this corrosive circle. Taken together it might be assumed that these are sufficient reason to rise up against this – or any similar – government. Yet what seems to be lacking at the moment is spontaneity, a self-generated sense of anger that spreads across social classes and political or religious groups and translates into action. Instead we have the ersatz ‘revolt’ whipped up by charismatics with no other agenda but their own advancement, and the advancement of those who can be persuaded to be like-minded. These are the ‘bussed in’ revolutionaries, the rent-a-crowd which can be assembled any time any place in Pakistan.

But inspiration and ideas do arise from events such those taking place in Egypt and Tunisia. The street action in Tunisia had a direct impact on what happened in Egypt. Until there develops the same unity of purpose and the same willingness to march under the banner of one cause, revolution is not on the agenda. A descent into anarchy, however, is entirely possible. Pakistan’s leaders need to be wary. But they should also look at what is wrong. Institutions are not functioning as smoothly as the PM claims and the economy is in a shambles – and we see everywhere people in great despair. Their plight needs to be eased if the talk of revolution – or the very real possibility of anarchy – is to fade away.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

Forgotten floods

February 02, 2011

Sometimes it takes a third party to drive home the obvious to those involved. The visiting president of the International Federation of the Red Cross has warned that if food prices continue to spiral in flood-hit areas and food insecurity caused by submerged agricultural lands is not checked, Pakistan could be looking at a situation similar to that seen last month in Tunisia where spiralling food prices played a part in triggering massive riots which finally forced President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali to flee. Mr Tadateru Konoe tells us that President Zardari is extremely worried by the situation. So he should be. But we wonder why the president or members of the government have chosen not to share their concerns with the people of the nation. Indeed, we have had little word about the disaster and its terrible aftermath for months. This attitude does not suggest a great deal of concern for the over 150,000 people still based in camps according to UN agencies, or for those who have returned home to ravaged farmlands and destroyed houses, and who now wonder how to rebuild lives. The help they have received has been limited.

Mr Konoe also made it plain that the international community, which is dealing with many other international disasters, lacked the resources to give more for flood relief. Pakistan will then need to tuck its shiny begging bowl away under its robes and think of means to stand on its own feet. The aftermath of flood remains a dismal one; much needs to be done, ways have to be found to raise resources, and a sustainable long-term strategy needs to be adopted. From most parts of the flood zone, the waters may have receded, but the suffering of people has not. Human misery can still be seen in many places, notably in Sindh, where abject poverty makes matters worse. There seems to have been only limited discussion at the government level on what should be done to tackle the situation. Tightening official belts could be one way. It is tragic this has not happened already. Other sources too, like Pakistanis based abroad, need to be tapped. Mr Konoe’s words of warning must lead to action. As he has said, the threat of anarchy is very real and must be warded off at all costs. People so far have demonstrated immense patience and great fortitude. This cannot last forever. Rage may lie not far around the corner.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

Peace in Swat

February 03, 2011

In keeping with its original plan to clear the area of militants, ensure safety for a period of time, and then pull out, the Pakistan military has begun planning a withdrawal of troops from the Swat Valley. The process of transferring control to local security forces has also been initiated. The Pakistan Army has maintained a heavy presence in the Valley since its operation against the militants who had seized control of the area ended in the summer of 2009. While there have been complaints of human rights abuses by troops, local inhabitants are pleased to see the end of the terror perpetrated by the Taliban. Action against the militants seems to have been most successful in Swat, where a rehabilitation programme was initiated for teenagers who had been trained to become militants. The military also made efforts to revive cultural activities that helped restore some sense of normalcy in the area. Though it was disrupted by the floods last summer, tourism has also made a comeback in the region. For decades, tourism has been central to economic life there. Militancy put a sharp stop to tourist activity in the area, depriving locals of badly needed incomes. Not surprisingly, people here fervently hope that peace will be restored long enough for business to pick up again.

But there are warning signs. According to some recent reports, activists of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariah-e-Mohammadi may already be planning a comeback and are amassing arms toward this end. There have also been accounts suggesting the Taliban have remained present in the area. This is a situation that needs to be watched closely. There is a real danger that militants may pounce upon military withdrawal as an opportunity to return to the areas they occupied earlier. It is necessary, then, that a careful eye be kept on events in Swat. There is no room for complacency. Any Taliban return would be disastrous, not only for the people of the Valley, but for the country as a whole. There is a dire need to build the population’s confidence in the ability of authorities to defeat the militants, and keep them at bay. Without first establishing good governance in Swat, not much else can be achieved in Swat or elsewhere.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

Treating trauma

Thursday, February 03, 2011

Terrorists have struck several times during the past few days. Processions in Lahore and Karachi have been targeted, schools in Peshawar have been bombed and, most recently, a car bomb detonated in a marketplace in Peshawar killed nine people. After each such tragic episode, we see other sights that have become just as familiar – ambulances rushing to the scene, the injured being lifted on to stretchers, and bereaved families of victims gathered at hospitals where their loved ones are being treated.

During the past few years, hospitals in all our major cities have acquired plenty of practice in dealing with the aftermath of such incidents. The injuries they treat are often horrendous. Calls for blood have also become the norm. Large numbers of people respond to such calls. But in today’s world of ever-increasing specialisation, what we perhaps need most, are doctors trained to deal with trauma. There is need for greater expertise in this area. While specialists in the field do exist, they are limited in number. Establishing departments that specifically handle trauma may prove key to saving lives. Such centres need to be set up in emergency rooms of all major cities. It is highly unfortunate that we need to think along these lines. But ignoring reality will serve no purpose. It has to be addressed head-on, and saving lives must be made top priority. There is a simultaneous need to act to end militancy so the need to treat trauma wounds is itself mitigated.

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Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

PCO penalty

February 04, 2011

The Supreme Court’s decision to frame charges against nine judges, who took oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order of November 3, 2007, for defying a restraining order issued by the apex court, marks the first occasion when contempt of court notices have been served against judges. While two of the judges who controversially took oath as former president Pervez Musharraf moved against the judiciary are retired, seven are ‘dysfunctional’. The hearings in the case are almost certain to bring forth some highly interesting facts linked to one of the less savoury episodes of our recent history. There have, of course, been many such chapters. Any steps that can prevent more from arising can only be welcome. Perhaps, the tough line taken by the court can prevent others from acting as the PCO judges did and persuade those in similar positions to give greater consideration to ethics and principles while making decisions. If, even a few, small steps were to be taken in this direction, they would benefit the country and the system. Both can only function smoothly if institutions and those who make them up act as they should, instead of vying for personal gain.

The SC decision has its critics. In an unusually strong statement, the Supreme Court Bar Association president has said the judiciary could be weakened by serving contempt notices on sitting judges. It may have been wiser to send them home or act against them through the Supreme Judicial Council. This is a matter for the legal fraternity to debate. The SC move certainly breaks from the norm. But when the action taken in the first place violates rules, then perhaps it is necessary to act in an unusual manner. By doing so, the SC has acted with courage. At this point in time it is difficult to say what will come of the matter. But we can only hope it will contribute toward building a stronger judiciary and reminding people that wrong acts will not go unpunished, regardless of who commits them. This is a lesson that needs to be driven home in the hope that it can correct the many flaws that prevent our system from working as it should.

Perks & privilege

It is sometimes difficult to come to terms with the surreal nature of events that unfold in our country. Even as people struggle to place food on their tables and unemployment soars, our parliamentarians appear to have decided they need a still more cushy life. Representatives from both government and opposition benches joined forces to suggest that they should receive benefits at the same level as those extended to bureaucrats and generals. Subsidised club membership was sought and politicians maintained that, as representatives of the people, they had a right to such benefits. This attitude explains a great deal about our condition as a country. Had public representatives demonstrated greater concern and commitment to the well-being of people, perhaps we would not be facing the acute crises we confront now. Given the desperate need to allocate greater resources to public welfare, our politicians would have done well to sacrifice personal perks for the sake of others, instead of clamouring for a bigger piece of the pie for themselves.

Those who sit in our assemblies have been placed there by the general public to serve its interests. This, then, is what they should be focusing on. Most – in fact virtually all – of our politicians come from wealthy backgrounds. They do not need more privileges. Certainly, they are in less need than our labourers and peasants and other ordinary citizens. Desire on their part for more benefits can only further reduce respect for politicians in the eyes of citizens and weaken a system that depends on mutual trust and willingness to work together. Using a place in parliament to achieve monetary gain runs directly contrary to these principles.

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Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO

Fixing the fixers

February 07, 2011

The world of cricket will be pondering the implications of the bans imposed on three of our cricketers last Saturday. These are the first bans to be imposed by the International Cricket Council, and they will not be the last. They were imposed as the result of a classic tabloid newspaper ‘sting’, with the News of the World, a popular British Sunday paper, filming the agent who set up the ’fix’ in the process of doing so. Once the cat was out of the bag matters developed their own momentum. Our entire team was tainted and under suspicion and last Friday saw the announcement that the British Crown Prosecution Service had concluded that there was sufficient evidence to, on the balance of probabilities, make a conviction of the same three men likely if the case was tested in court. The men have denied the charges before the ICC and, if they ever get to trial, will presumably plead not guilty in a British court. A hearing in magistrate’s court has been fixed at 17th March, and the next phase of this saga of disgrace will begin.

Whether the ICC verdict will affect the culture of illegal betting that has infected cricket, is doubtful. What it will have done is put down a marker for others who may be tempted to follow the example of Messrs Butt, Asif and Amir. A marker that clearly indicates that cheating is not acceptable, and the price of cheating is going to be, perhaps, the loss of an entire career. Butt may be able to pick up the pieces later; Amir may survive to fulfil his obvious promise but at 28 Asif may well be finished as a top-level player. Difficult as it may be, it is hard not to see the case against the men was backed up by hard evidence. This was not something born of sly innuendo or rumour, it was grounded in forensic reality, and the men’s denial in the face of the evidence said little for their characters. It would have been better for them and for the sport of cricket if they had come clean with the ICC, even at risk of exposing others. The other uncomfortable reality is that not just cricket, but many other sports across the world are deeply mired in corruption. Horse racing is notorious for its fixing or ‘nobbling’ – doping horses to make them run faster or slower. Football has had its scandals, and the world of Formula 1 motor racing is driving close to the edge of illegality with ‘team orders’ determining the outcome of races. Sport, including cricket, is today big business. Globally, sport is a multi-billion-dollar a year industry and we should not be surprised that it attracts the attention of criminals wishing to subvert the higher principles that most sportsmen and women have at the outset of their careers. Let us hope that for our cricketers a lesson is learned, and for those who manage our cricket at a national level to be considerably more diligent in their duties.

__________________
Regards,
CHAIRMAN MAO