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Omer · #7 Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Inflation

The inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) averaged at 10.3 percent during (July- April) 2007-08, as against 7.9 percent in the same period last year. Food price inflation is estimated at 15.0 percent compared to 10.2 percent in the same period of last year. Non-food inflation increased to 6.8 percent versus 6.2 percent in the comparable period of last year. The core inflation (non-food, non-energy sector), increased little over last year increasing from 6.0 percent in 2006-07 to 7.5 percent in the first ten months of the current fiscal year. The larger contribution towards the overall CPI inflation comes from food inflation. Based on current trends, it is expected that the average inflation rate during 2007-08 will be over 10.5 percent.

Major factors contributing to the rise in inflationary pressures in the economy during the current year 2007-08 include the extremely high food and energy prices, which is in fact a global problem. Food inflation was predominantly driven by unprecedented rise in the prices of few items like wheat, rice and edible oil etc, owing to supply short-fall of key consumer items as well as the impact of the significant increase in their global prices. The record high jump in oil prices lead to an increase in the cost of Pakistani imports as well as aggravating food shortages across the world through the conversion of many crops from human consumption to fuel, which have also seriously spurred the world-wide price level including those in Pakistan.

Inflation is an important determinant of the macroeconomic stability and thus attracted policy measures to contain it at tolerable level. The corrective measures include pursuing tight monetary policy by SBP to control money supply and credit expansion, easing supply by allowing imports of several essential items to augment domestic supply, gearing reforms toward additional agricultural output and effective participation of the public sector distribution network (USC & TCP).

Trade and Payments

Pakistan’s exports were growing at 16 percent per annum on the back of strong macroeconomic policies pursued at home and the hospitable international trading environment the period (2002-03 to 2005-06). The impressive export performance backtracked to dismal in 2006-07 when they hardly managed to grow at less than 4 percent. Overall exports recorded a growth of 10.2 percent during the first ten months (July- April) of the current fiscal year against 3.6 percent in the same period of last year. In absolute terms, exports have increased from $13847.3 million to $15255.5 million in the period. Although exports growth has remained far short of the average growth of 16 percent achieved during 2002-03 to 2005-06, but it was satisfactory when viewed in the backdrop of poor show last year.

Imports during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year (2007-08) grew by 28.3 percent compared with the same period of last year, reaching to $32.06 billion. After growing at an average rate of 29 percent per annum during 2003-04, Pakistan’s import growth slowed to a moderate level of 6.9 percent in the last fiscal year (2006-07). Import’s growth exhibited a sharp pick up in 2007-08 on the back of an extra-ordinary surge in the imports of petroleum products, food and raw material. Non-oil imports were up by 22.5 percent and non-oil and non food imports spiked by 18.8 percent during the first ten months (July- April) of the current fiscal year.

Imports of the petroleum group registered extraordinary growth of 47 percent and reached to $8670 million. The petroleum group accounts for 27 percent of total imports but contributed 39 percent in the overall growth of imports for the year. The rise in imports of the petroleum group has been the fallout of extraordinary hike in crude oil prices in the international market, as well as the substantial increase in its quantity imported. The imports of raw material contributed almost 21 percent to this year’s rise in import bill. This is followed by imports of food group which contributed 16 percent to the overall imports growth. Imports of petroleum products and edible oil contributed 47 percent to the additional import bill in FY 08. Additional 18.7 percent contribution came from the import of wheat and fertilizer. These four items accounted for two-thirds of imports growth. Consumer durables contribution was negative (0.4 percent) mainly on account of decline in the import of road motor vehicles.

Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to US$11.6 billion during Jul-Apr FY08 against US$6.6 billion in the comparable period of last year, showing an increase of 75.7 percent. Even when compared to the size of the economy, CAD was substantially high at 6.8 percent of GDP during Jul-April FY08 as against 4.6 percent for the same period last year. The deterioration of the current account deficit was mainly driven by sharp rise in the trade deficit along with an increase in net outflows from services and income account. Services account deficit widened by 44.2 percent during Jul-April FY08 to reach $5.6 billion. This deterioration was contributed by relatively high import growth and the decline in export of services. However, the strong growth in current transfers on the back of impressive growth in remittances almost entirely offset the deficit in services and income account thereby leaving the trade deficit as the fundamental source of expansion in the current account deficit. The current transfers witnessed an impressive increase of 16.4 percent during Jul-April FY08 on the back of strong growth in both private and official transfers.

The Pak rupee, after remaining stable for more than four years, lost significant value against the US dollar and depreciated by 6.4 percent during July-April 2008. The fall in the value of the rupee is mainly attributed to rising oil prices in the international market, widening of current account deficit and the uncertain political situation in the country.

Worker’s remittances registered commendable growth during Jul-Apr FY08 by growing by 19.5 percent on top of 22.7 percent growth in the corresponding period of last year. Worker’s remittance totaled $5.3 billion in the first ten months of (Jul-April) of the fiscal year as against $4.4 billion in the same period last year. Pakistan’s total foreign exchange reserves stood at $12,344 million as on end-April 2008, significantly lower than the end-June 2007 level of $15,646 million. Reserves peaked to $16,443 million at end Oct 2007, while they showed significant depletion of $4.1 billion during Nov-Apr FY08. During Jul-Oct 2007, reserves improved by 5.1 percent due to the relatively lower current account deficit and substantial inflows in the financial account. However, October onwards, net outflows from portfolio investment, and a steep rise in the current account deficit led to a sharp decline in the foreign exchange reserves of the country.

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