Firstly, Diplomatic isolation of Qatar is not possible because of following reasons:
1. Qatar is the richest country in the world. According to IMF, GDP per capita of Qatar is $ 127,660. That means each individual in Qatar contributes this much amount per anum towards the economy. Hence, this cannot be compared with Pakistan whose GDP per capita is mere $ 4906.
2. World Powers have too much interest in Qatar; they can abandon all the members of GCC but not Qatar. The US has two strategic military bases in Qatar, so they are not willing to let tension to escalate. China, India, Uk and other European countries import LNG from Qatar and they cannot afford to lose LNG at any cost.
Secondly, the situation of Pakistan is altogether different from Qatar. Pakistan has been fighting terrorism long before escalated middle east conflict and has lost a lot in doing so. Saudi Arabia accused Qatar of three main things:
1. Supporting Sunni extremist terrorists: Sunni extremists networks that are not under Saudi control could eventually attack Shia population in the kingdom triggering an internal conflict. It is a potential factor of destabilisation. Muslim Brotherhood is a good example, Qatar is literally supporting this transnational party with branches in Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt. In Saudi Arabia, MB is considered a threat.
2. Supporting Shia militants including in the Saudi Kingdom
3. Supporting Iran: Being a member of GCC, it is supposed that Qatar foreign policy should be aligned to the Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, in other words, hostile to Iran.
The questions which arise from these accusations are:
1. Why such a small and wealthy country refused to align itself to the Saudi Arabia?
2. Why would Qatar support Iran?
3. Why would Qatar support Sunni extremists such as Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Nursa, Daesh?
It is a geopolitical fact that Obama administration was reluctant in involving in the Middle East affairs. After two main failures, Libya democratisation and the moderate Syrian opposition, Washington decided to minimise its presence in the region. Since 2014, the US became independent of oil supply from the Middle Eastern which was a big factor in this game. The gap provided by the United States was filled by Suadi Arabia, Russia, China and Turkey. In this new regional order, it is supposed that Qatar would align itself with the Suadi-led coalition against Iran such as Yemen, UAE and Bahrain. However, it is in the national interest of Qatar says otherwise.
Deep in the Gulf waters between Qatar and Iran lies the world's largest gas field, a 9,700-sq-km expanse that holds at least 43 trillion cubic metres of gas reserves. Since 1979 Iran tried unsuccessfully to develop its LNG industry. Meanwhile, Qatar received support from companies around the world. After the Iran deal or lifting international economic sanctions against Iran in 2015, Qatar understood that Iran will boost its LNG production so they jumped in offering a partnership to Tehran in order to control their development. Iran would develop its LNG industry with or without Qatar, but it would be smarter for Doha to be a part of it in order to protect their exports to Asia. It is unlikely for Iran to receive support from EU or the US, so the most important Qatari economic partners China, Korea and Japan would be glad to help Iran. The risk for Doha would be losing its economic ties with these countries, so that’s why Doha decided to help Tehran in developing its industry, or at least offered them this possibility.
Qatar is trying to project its independent foreign policy. In order to do that, they need geopolitical assets. For Saudi Arabia is its military equipment provided by the US and its dominance on the holiest cities (for Muslim people) Mecca and Medina. On the other hand, Qatar needs to build its own assets. Financially, Qatar it is very powerful, they can fund political parties such as Muslim Brotherhood, terrorist organisations such as Hamas, al-Qaeda, Al-Nursa or Daesh. Also, they invest a lot of money in the UK. Doha is using its money to build geopolitical influence in the region and abroad. Their economy is based on oil export and LNG being the most powerful exporter of LNG in the world. Regarding exports, the most important economic partners of Qatar are China, Japan, Singapore, India, Thailand, United Kingdom, South Korea. Regarding imports, their partners are China, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, the United States, South Korea, Italy. So, the most important Qatari economic ties are based in Asia which makes them relatively independent of GCC partners.
Outcomes:
The most probable outcomes of this cut-off can be listed as:
1. Without a total blockade, Qatar will continue to do business with Asian countries. Its economy is unlikely to be affected enough to change Doha foreign policy approach, on the contrary, this measure taken by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt it is most likely to become a justification in the Qatari Royal Family for its current geopolitical ambitions.
2. Regarding its food security, Iran already expressed its intention to provide the food supply for Qatar if it’s necessary. Also, it is most likely that China, India, and other Asian partners to provide food in order to strengthen their economic relations with Qatar.
3. A full blockade which means to cut Qatari commercial routes would be effective, but it is unlikely that Washington, London, Brussels and Beijing would allow that to happen.
In the end, I think that Qatar's Foreign Policy is going to be more aggressive in the future. Why? Because they have nothing to lose here except some imports and Qatar Airways' lose.