Trade ties with China
A NEW paper from the State Bank of Pakistan draws attention to the implications that our growing trade ties with China have for Pakistan’s economy. Although CPEC commands all attention these days, the trade relationship between the two countries has largely receded into the background in the economic conversation. Yet it is here that both countries have taken the largest strides over the last decade, with Pakistan’s share of bilateral trade reaching $13.8bn in 2016, up from $2.2bn in 2005, a near six-fold increase and possibly the fastest-growing trade relationship that we have with any other country. At the heart of this is the free trade agreement that both countries signed in 2006, and which has been stuck in negotiations for expansion since 2012 with the talks continuing to the present day.
The document, which does not represent the official view of the State Bank but is part of its Working Paper series, notes the rapid increase in bilateral trade. However, it argues that the trade relationship “remained tilted in China’s favour” because the growth rate of Pakistan’s imports from the former country was more than double that of exports since the agreement went into force. Today, China is the single largest source of Pakistan’s non-oil imports, according to the paper. It is important to bear in mind that this is not uniformly a bad situation. It would be simplistic to measure the success of a trade relationship on the basis of the quantum of trade balance alone. As the authors of the report note, many of the imports coming from China consist of growth supporting capital goods, as well as ‘import substitution’ of those goods that were previously imported at higher prices from other countries but that now come from China. These are positive developments, and show that trade ties need not necessarily be in balance or surplus to be called healthy.
However, what matters is the future trajectory of this relationship, more than its past evolution. For example, at some point imports should either hit a plateau or enter into a decline as capital goods imported into Pakistan lift productivity and their output finds its way back into the Chinese market. Likewise, the substitution effect should not be expected to continue indefinitely. At the moment, 75pc of Pakistan’s exports to China consist of raw materials — cotton and rice — while the majority of imports consist of finished goods and machinery. This relationship can be healthy only for a period of time; if it becomes a permanent state of affairs, its effects on the domestic economy can be harmful. It is imperative, therefore, that the government remain alert and vigorous when formulating its own economic interests as it negotiates the future of Pakistan’s growing engagement with China.
Fata’s women voters
THE most striking aspect of the figures recently released by the ECP is the 36pc increase in the number of women voters in the tribal areas — the highest in any demographic across Pakistan. In fact, Fata as a whole has registered the highest increase in the number of people eligible to vote. Of the 97m now registered as voters — up from 86.1m four years ago — 23pc are from the tribal areas. The numbers that comprise the electorate are calculated by Nadra on the basis of CNIC details on its database and the names verified by the ECP before it finalises the electoral rolls. The increase in voters from Fata, including women, can be explained by the travails of the tribal population due to internal displacement induced by military operations in their native areas. Firstly, registration in the relief camps in KP was contingent upon the possession of CNICs, a technicality that caused many women-headed households considerable difficulty in accessing services, including cash grants. Secondly, with the cessation in kinetic operations up north, many Fata residents are making their way back home and CNICs are mandatory for receiving the compensation packages — sometimes targeted at the women — announced by the government.
However, the inclusion of so many more Fata women in the national database will not necessarily translate into a presence at the hustings, for they procured CNICs as a matter of economic necessity, that too in a context which was a departure from the norm. Such an ‘aberration’ in the eyes of many among their male compatriots may have been ‘tolerated’ under those circumstances, but the full weight of tradition is likely to assert itself when it comes to women exercising their right to vote. There are many instances of female disenfranchisement as a result of collusion, more tacit of late, between local chapters of various political parties. The huge spike in the numbers of women from Fata who are now in possession of CNICs also indicates how many of them have thus far remained excluded from the decision-making process of selecting their representatives. The ECP should push leaders of political parties to direct their local chapters to motivate these women to vote, and persuade men of the importance of their doing so. Moreover, if women’s votes comprise less than 10pc of the total cast in a constituency, the electoral watchdog should exercise its discretion and declare the polling void.
Criminal cops
CRIMINALITY within the ranks of law-enforcement bodies is a global problem. However, it would not be wrong to say that in Pakistan, the issue has attained chronic proportions, with the common citizen fearing the police force rather than reposing his or her trust in it. From demands of ‘chai paani’ to much worse, people are often shaken down by men in police uniforms. These black sheep eclipse the good work dedicated police personnel have done, often laying down their lives to protect others. One particularly galling example of police criminality came to the fore when it was reported on Monday that policemen had been booked for kidnapping a citizen for ransom in Karachi. A magistrate informed a court that he had raided the Ferozabad police station and got released a man who had been reportedly kidnapped from his house by two policemen and their accomplices in civvies. The culprits had demanded Rs2m as ransom, after which the victim’s family approached the court to ensure his release.
It is acts like these that help fuel the common citizen’s disillusionment with the police, and by extension the state. When those who are supposed to serve and protect indulge in such brazenly criminal behaviour, how can people be expected to trust the police force? Such activities reinforce the narrative that the state exists to exploit the citizen, not to serve him. The Sindh IGP has taken some positive steps in this regard, primarily by introducing the ‘9110’ helpline for citizens to register their complaints against police high-handedness. At the helpline’s launch in August, the Sindh police chief said complaints could be registered against officers who refuse to register FIRs, keep citizens in illegal confinement, etc. Along with such steps, there is a vital need to monitor the police internally and weed out elements that indulge in criminality. The police hierarchy must make it clear that there is zero tolerance for law enforcers who break the law.
Source: Editorials
Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2017