The hinge

Once again eyes turn towards Balochistan – the largest, least populated, poorest and, by a terrible irony, most resource-rich province of the federation. Concerns are growing that the process of Talibanisation which has created a splinter-state in NWFP are now well advanced there. Balochistan has never ‘settled’ into the corporate identity of Pakistan and the blood of Baloch nationalism runs strong in the provincial veins; and a good deal of it has run on the ground as well over the decades. We now hear from Sanaullah Baloch of the Balochistan National Party (BNP) that supporters (an interesting word to use in this context) of the Taliban had gained control of lands worth two billion rupees to the east and west of Quetta, and that the Taliban are consolidating their grip. A glance at the map tells us that the long border with Afghanistan and the proximity to the unsettled areas of NWFP makes this something that may be accomplished with relative ease – especially if you have a helping hand from the top. It is claimed that Taliban supporters enjoy the support of the government and the sensitive agencies as they see the Taliban as a potent counterweight to the Baloch nationalists.

Doubtless Sanaullah Baloch is referring to the JUI-F when he speaks of Taliban supporters. The JUI-F has poached the Pashtun vote from the secular Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party just as it did when it pushed aside the secular ANP in NWFP. We note how difficult it is for the ANP – now in power in NWFP – to get support from the centre in the battle to contain and control extremism. In Balochistan Taliban supporters, both covertly and overtly, help extremism against the secular parties which are, inconveniently, nationalist as well as secular. The rolling tide of Talibanisation in Balochistan, of which the JUIF are the storm-troopers, will have no truck with the desire for insurgency and separation so beloved of the Baloch nationalists. The JUIF agenda is broader and deeper than even that, and their party machine has deftly manoeuvred it into the federal coalition alongside the PPP, whilst at the same time giving support to the Taliban and stoutly resisting all calls for military action against extremism in Balochistan. If nothing else this displays a sophisticated and multi-faceted thinking by the Taliban groups (there are many, and they do not all hold hands – yet) who are now advancing in a disciplined and coordinated manner down our western flanks. South Punjab is currently undergoing a process of radicalization as well and it is not difficult to trace the thread through the labyrinth back to the tribal agencies.

Balochistan has become a part of the hinge on which the history of Pakistan now turns. Challenging the writ of the Taliban is tricky as it is both difficult and dangerous to confront a grouping that says it is working within the religious constitution of the state – the constitution which has the Sharia at its very heart. Few of us would wish to risk the wrath of the extremists by challenging them as they will always counter with the cry of ‘Are you not a Muslim?’ The components of the hinge are now almost all in place – but which way will it turn and who is doing the pushing?

Breeding fear

With Pakistan increasingly seen by the rest of the world as a hotbed of extremism and terrorism, the fast-track to all that is unpleasant, it should come as little surprise to us that the Mumbai attack has sparked yet another spiral of paranoia in the US. The attacks that took place on 9/11 have forever altered America’s perception of itself as inviolate to all but attack by ballistic nuclear missiles. It is now a country where fear and threat are in the minds of all, fears and threats stoked by assorted politicians, warmongers and crazies who crowd the airwaves with their views and perceptions in the same way as some of our own politicians, warmongers and crazies do here. The Mumbai attack has brought forth yet another round of finger-pointing in our direction. Newspapers and other media have all carried the transcripts of tapes made by the Indians that purport to be of calls between the gunmen and their Pakistani handlers. CCTV footage is widely available on sites like YouTube with comments that are unprintable as to what should be done to/with those who carried out the attack – who are invariably identified as being Pakistani. The revelation that the surviving gunman is indeed Pakistani has done nothing to damp the paranoia, and America is mentally gearing itself up for a Mumbai-style attack on its own soil.

Reports are emerging that a recent meeting of senior US government officials, lawmakers and anti-terrorism experts consider such an attack as more, rather than less, likely, and that if such an attack were to happen its likely origins would be Pakistan. Whilst we are in the realms of speculation here, it is not inconceivable that an attack – not just by Islamists but by any group – could be mounted. America is a heavily weaponised society where guns are freely available and their use is poorly regulated or controlled. Other materiel is also available either over-the-counter or via the internet. Assembling the means to carry out an attack in America is never going to be a problem. Muslims generally and Muslims of a radical persuasion are ever more closely scrutinized in the US, and complaints of harassment of innocents are on the rise across the country. The sense of fear and paranoia within the American Muslim world is no less than it is in the American non-Muslim world. We hope and pray that there is no attack in America of a similar type to that in Mumbai, but have to count it as a possibility. There is no shortage of disaffected and outraged Muslims who are currently watching Gaza get flattened once again – and some of them live in America. Were the finger to be credibly pointed at us in the event of any such attack – and we may be very sure that the Americans are going to be a lot more upfront about naming names than India or indeed ourselves – then the consequences are almost beyond imagination. We must hope that cool heads prevail; feeding the beast that is paranoia serves nobody well in these dangerous days.

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Regards,
P.R.