WISDOM OR FOLLY?

(SouthAsia Magazine July 2020 Edition)

Confidence is good, but overconfidence is self-destructive. In a bid to maintain an aggressive posture through unilateral annexation of the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir in violation of bilateral agreements and international norms, India has committed a historical blunder. As a result it has to pay a heavy price in the long run. Then again, it is going to be a part of the bigger picture to contain China against the spirit of the Wuhan Consensus which aims at mutual cooperation. China, constantly irked by annoying Indian behaviour, is forced to respond to Indian follies. India certainly cannot sustain rivalry with China and the champions of Hindutva know it well.

India has proved to be an unreliable state in the international system. By revoking the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir in violation of the UNSC resolutions and bilateral agreements, India has come out as untrustworthy in terms of honouring sovereign agreements, a practice common to Nazi Germany.

Additionally, through the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, the disputed region was divided into two union territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. Historically, the disputed nature of the region was accepted by India itself as supported by its request to the UN for intervention and asking for a plebiscite. Moreover, the 1993 Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity Agreement and subsequent protocols between India and China are a testament to the disputed nature of the region. Against that backdrop, it was a blunder on the part of India to unilaterally alter the status of the region without holding talks with China and Pakistan.

Ladakh is contested between China and India. However, after the controversial constitutional amendment to (il)legally occupy the region, India issued new maps claiming Aksai Chin from the Chinese side andAzad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit from the Pakistani side as its part, further vitiating the environment in the troubled region.

India has now embarked on an offensive path against Chinese interests in the region. It has been working on a vast infrastructure development in Ladakh with road networks, airstrips and bridges along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) which are offensive in nature. These roads are built with the dual purposes of mass movement and military uses. Since such development was carried out in the disputed region, it cannot be acceptable to the contesting parties. Apparently, and surely, Indian intentions of infrastructure development in the region are to exert pressure on China and Pakistan, keeping in view the strategic importance of the region and the CPEC route, which is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Consequently, the need for Indian hubris, coupled with other geostrategic issues compelling China to reconsider its options vis-à-vis India. After the Doklam stand-off, Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping met in Wuhan and agreed that the two countries would cooperate and would not be rivals to each other.

Nonetheless, India continued to violate the Wuhan Consensus and exhibited itself as a partner of the United States and a rival to China in the region and beyond. Hence, India participated in the Asia-Pacific Quadrilateral Goup comprising the United States, Japan, India and Australia, to encircle China and contain it from becoming a global power.

To deter Indian aggression in the disputed region, China mobilised its troops in the strategic areas of Ladakh and Sikkim. It is believed large contingents of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) have repulsed the India aggressors in the Galwan valley, Pangong Tso, Demchok from the Ladakh side and Nakula Pass from Sikkim.

India now finds itself in an awkward position and is trying to convince China to withdraw its troops. BJP-led India has committed mistakes one after the other and now it is paying dearly by opening many fronts. At the LAC it is engaged with China, with freedom fighters in occupied Kashmir and with Pakistan along the Line of Control (LOC). It has now also developed a border dispute with neighbouring Nepal. Such multiple fronts based on Indian follies is no different than Nazi Germany and is bound to end in disaster.

The Modi government rightly knows it can neither suppress nor challenge China at the behest of America or the Quad Group. The Quad partners cannot militarily defend India as China is neither Afghanistan nor Somalia. When the powerful western cocktail cannot dethrone Bashar al-Assad in Syria, or America cannot succeed in North Korea, it is unlikely and even impossible for it to suppress the Chinese juggernaut. The Quad can only support India through diplomatic means at international fora.

India, having realised the might of Chinese power, has responded to the current developments along the LAC and is reported to have lost many of its soldiers. It did not use military muscle against the PLA when the Indian soldiers were repulsed from Galwan and Pangong Tso and has been taught a lesson by the chinese.

New Delhi cannot sustain confrontation with Beijing, keeping in view Beijing’s military and economic strength. China is an economy of $13.6 trillion whereas India is $2.7 trillion. Chinese military spending comprises $261 billion while Indian defence expenditure is $71 billion. Furthermore, according to Indian strategic analyst Pravin Sawhney, the Chinese response could be multi-pronged, such as in the cyber and space arena, which may be far more lethal for India. Thus, there is stark difference between the two countries. Above all, China is self-reliant with massive economic and diplomatic clout while, on the contrary, India is not.

Military escalation is not possible in the ongoing confrontation. China has the capability to change unruly Indian behaviour into cooperation. India should realise that China is its neighbouring state and is far more powerful than it and hence, it cannot sustain offending Beijing. It also does not suit India to be a war-monger in the region. Instead of rivalry, it is the right time for India to realise its follies and make wiser choices of cooperation, peaceful resolution of outstanding issues and a sharing of prosperity for the good of the region. Arrogance will certainly fail down the road as witnessed in the Ladakh region or during the dogfight with Pakistan in February 2019.