CSS Forums - View Single Post

Muskan Ghuman · #6 Friday, March 03, 2006

Salam to all,

Bush’s agenda for his visit

By Talat Masood

THE forthcoming visit of President Bush to India and Pakistan is a milestone in the on-going engagement and increasing interest of the United States in this part of the world. Several factors have contributed towards making South Asia an attractive destination for significant US presence.

The emergence of democratic India as an economic and military power, Pakistan’s central role in the war on terror, nuclearization of South Asia, Pakistan’s geo-strategic location and its influence in the Islamic world are contributing factors drawing America to this region.

Fallout from the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, the looming nuclear crisis facing Iran, the growing unrest in the energy-rich Muslim world and the rise of China as an economic and military powerhouse in Asia are additional factors for the importance of this region. The visit to Pakistan is also meant to be a strong endorsement by President Bush of the policies being pursued by President Musharraf, especially as related to fighting terrorism and extremism.

It goes to the credit of the United States that it enjoys at the official level very good relations with India, Pakistan and Afghanistan despite the mutual differences and on-going tensions that exist between these countries. The US deals with India and Pakistan separately, at different levels, based on mutuality of interests and at times even solely advancing its own unilateral agenda.

The United States considers India as the largest democracy in the world and a strategic partner. Indian liberalization of the economy since the early 1990s is attracting US investments, and American corporations consider India a huge potential market for their goods and services. The support for growth of India is across the political spectrum. Republicans and Democrats alike perceive India to develop into a countervailing force to China, for this they are willing to encourage India to be a capable nuclear power. The requirement of India and the United States to cooperate in nuclear energy and secure future sources of energy is the centrepiece of their current relationship.

The most extraordinary feature of this partnership is the level of confidence that US reposes in a nuclear-armed India and how it has come full circle since sanctions were imposed in May 1998 after the nuclear detonations. India’s interest, on the other hand, lies in seeking critical technologies — nuclear, space and defence — sophisticated arms and equipment, and infra-structural development from the US.

India gives high priority to acquisition of technology and assistance in human resource development. Today the highest number of foreign students in the US universities and institutions are from India followed by China.

Whereas Washington repeatedly assures Islamabad that its relationship with India is not a zero-sum game and it wants to develop a de-hyphenated, but a strong relationship with Pakistan, based on mutuality of interests. Nonetheless, Pakistan and some other Asian countries fear that India’s strategic partnership with the lone superpower will give fillip to India’s aspirations of becoming a regional hegemon.

Moreover, a common feeling prevails among Pakistanis that their relationship with the US is not intrinsic but based on expediency and currently driven by its pivotal position in the war on terror. Firstly, it has to be realized that there is no permanence in relationship between nations and it is only the mutuality of interests that provide continuity.

Without doubt, fighting the war on terror would remain America’s top global priority for years. Combating terrorism as the world has learnt the hard way, requires a comprehensive approach, and the military dimension is only one element of it. If Washington shies away prematurely from Pakistan (and Afghanistan) there is every possibility that the same forces would reorganize themselves and once again pose a serious threat not only to the United States but also to the rest of the world.

Building capacities of countries of the region to counter terrorism is one of Washington’s major priorities, and being a long-drawn process, would need to be sustained for years. As a part of the same policy the US is providing economic assistance to Pakistan on a long-term basis and it is expected that during President Bush’s visit the two countries would sign the bilateral investment Treaty to create a legal and operational framework for enhancement of trade and investment. Washington is promoting educational programmes for Pakistani students on a high priority basis both to sustain economic development and also for developing a cadre of future leadership, which is not only US friendly but also has a more comprehensive world view.

Pakistan’s geostrategic position and the United States’ deep strategic interests in the Muslim world will also keep Washington engaged and provide durability to our relationship. It is unlikely that the US will agree to a similar deal on civil nuclear energy for Pakistan, but may consider some form of arrangement in the future, provided the nuclear supplier group can be taken on board.

President Musharraf should ask President Bush to review their objections to the Iranian gas pipeline, which is so vital for meeting our energy needs, especially when the US is keeping us out of the nuclear deal. Washington is willing to sell F-16s to Pakistan, but Islamabad is now more inclined to buy a mix of new as well as refurbished fighter aircraft at reduced prices.

America’s unilateralist policies, its invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, unstinted support to Israel, selective application of democratic principles and international treaties has given rise to a powerful anti-American sentiment globally but more so in the Muslim world, including Pakistan. American policies toward Muslim countries are the subject of criticism but there is no ill-will against American people. Indeed, there is wide respect for Jeffersonian ideals and entrepreneurial spirit of its people. To win back the support of the people, the such administration ought to apply international norms more uniformly and also address the root cause of conflicts.

During his forthcoming visit to South Asia, President Bush will address the complex problem of Kashmir. The US is already engaged in quiet diplomacy but the president is likely to use this opportunity to urge both countries to move toward a resolution, as was apparent from his recent interviews to the media. President Musharraf’s proposal for self-governance and demilitarization strikes a responsive chord in US circles.

Americans are also promoting the idea of building close economic and trade links between the two parts of Kashmir. These include developing of infrastructure facilities like roads, airports etc, and creating additional employment opportunities by initiating joint projects with the assistance of foreign donors. On the question of any territorial adjustment of Jammu and Kashmir the US position is fundamentally not different from that India which favours the freezing of the status quo.

The Indians of course will harp on the jihadi problem, despite Pakistan’s assurances that they are doing their best to prevent cross-border infiltration. In any case, elaborate fencing along the LoC, installation of sophisticated electronic and other sensors and heavy presence of Indian military makes infiltration by non-state elements almost impossible.

As for promoting democracy in Pakistan, the US will continue to follow the existing policy of sidelining it in favour of its immediate strategic imperative of fighting the war on terror. On balance, President Bush’s visit, apart from being symbolic, is likely to invigorate our mutual relationship and give a new depth and dimension to it, notwithstanding, that it will be characterized by some elements of expediency.

The writer is a retired lieutenant-general.

with regards,
Muskan