May 30th 2009
From Economist.com

Iran’s presidential election campaign is under way. Expect the return of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad



WITH barely two weeks to go before a presidential election in Iran, on June 12th, four candidates are engaged in their campaigns. The election comes at a relatively bleak time, with the economy battered and amid anxiety about international relations. Yet the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is likely to win.

Some 475 people originally put themselves forward as potential candidates, but only four were permitted to stand by the authorities after a vetting process. It appears that Mr Ahmadinejad, a conservative, and Mir Hosein Mousavi, a moderate rival, are the two leading candidates. Neither of the remaining pair—another moderate, Mehdi Karroubi, and a conservative former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaie—is showing much momentum in his campaign.

No sitting president has ever lost a race for a second term in Iran, but Mr Ahmadinejad may feel a twinge of concern. Urban Iranians, in particular, criticise him for his mishandling of the economy. Others are unhappy about what they see as an unnecessarily belligerent foreign policy which has led to the isolation of Iran over criticism of the country’s nuclear programme.
Voters who are disgruntled with Mr Ahmadinejad are expected, mostly, to turn to Mr Mousavi, a reformist and former prime minister, who may also be able to appeal to some conservatives. Those who are worried about the economic downturn may recall that Mr Mousavi was a reasonably competent manager of the economy during the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988. That he served as an adviser to Muhammad Khatami, the moderate predecessor to the current president, should endear him to reformists; the religious-minded may be reassured by the fact that he was a favourite of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s founding father.


But Mr Ahmadinejad has made some efforts, too, to appeal to waverers. In foreign policy his rivals, though not promising to suspend the nuclear programme, have said that they would take a less confrontational stance. In response Mr Ahmadinejad said on Monday May 25th that he would be willing to meet the American president, Barack Obama, at the United Nations to discuss “world issues and the way towards peace”. It is far from clear that such a conciliatory tone from the president would persist after the election.


Mr Ahmadinejad is an adroit campaigner. He has reportedly distributed 400,000 tonnes of potatoes to voters, and has warned his rivals not to criticise him, suggesting that to do so would be a breach of electoral law. As campaigning got under way his government temporarily blocked access to Facebook, perhaps fearing that opponents might organise themselves using the social-networking website. The opposition accused the government of imposing a gag which, in particular, would affect the many young voters who use the service. Access has since been restored.


The outcome will be strongly influenced by how many of the 46m registered voters actually turn out. Mr Ahmadinejad can probably bank on collecting 13m voters at least, whatever the turnout. Thus a poor showing, perhaps around 26m voters, would probably benefit the incumbent. In contrast a high turnout, say above 30m, might well do Mr Mousavi a great service.
There are some indications that the polling stations will be busy. Last time, in 2005, some reformist groups called for a boycott of the election in protest against the way it was run. This time there have been no such calls. Reformists may take issue with the way Iran’s elections are organised, but they have decided this time to take part fully.

One important endorsement remains elusive. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, seems to be hedging his bets. His calls for Iranians to vote for an anti-Western candidate have been interpreted as support for his current president. But in a speech in March he made it clear that his backing for the government should not be seen as support for Mr Ahmadinejad’s candidacy.

The winning candidate will need more than half the votes to avoid a second round. If none achieves this, a run-off vote will be held on June 19th, with many expecting a face-off between Mr Ahmadinejad and Mr Mousavi.

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