Downhill decade
Wednesday, July 29, 2009


The chances of there being good news coming out of the mouth of the Commerce Minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim were always going to be slim, and in that sense he did not disappoint when delivering the three-year trade policy framework 2009-12 to the federal cabinet. The picture he presented whilst upbeat in a narrow segment of the economy was one of unremitting decline over the last decade. He took a long-term view of our export performance over the last ten years and revealed that our share of the global market had declined by over one-third from 0.21 per cent in 1999 to 0.13 per cent today. Contributory factors to this chronic malaise were the energy crisis, the poor and deteriorating law-and-order situation and a sharp global economic downturn. Our exports declined in our major markets like the US and Europe, down from $19.1 billion in 2007-8 to $17.8 billion today. Textile exports dropped from $10.6 million to $9.6 million in 2008-9… the litany of decline and decay went on and on.

Stopping a deeply-rooted rot such as this is going to be difficult. The power crisis underlies much of the instability and uncertainty in the markets and cuts great swathes through our productivity. Promises to end loadshedding by year’s-end are sounding increasingly like fragile fantasy and until the issue of circular debt is resolved then we are going to be as powerless next year as we have been this. Mr Fahim tells us that in pursuit of the strategic objective of greater market access via trade diplomacy, the government will engage with trading partners such as the US and the EU; and utilise the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) to provide zero duty facility for exports to the US. Dry as they may seem it is figures such as those detailing our long-term decline as a trading nation that speak a truth that even our slippery politicians cannot deny. We cannot forever point the finger elsewhere; it cannot forever be everybody else’s fault but our own. Yes, let us engage in economic diplomacy and try to roll back some of the restrictive tariffs that limit our trade with the US and the EU; create new markets for our goods - but get the power back on first, because no power is no production and no production is no trade.

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Interesting times
Wednesday, July 29, 2009


The Supreme Court could call into question the actions taken by former chief justice, Abdul Hameed Dogar. If it does, this would also bring into doubt the oath taken as president by Asif Ali Zardari, and open up a whole range of other uncertainties about events in our judicially-murky past. The development comes at a time when there is much speculation regarding the immediate future of President Zardari, given his increasing isolation and the fall-out with the prime minister. The status of Justice Dogar, highlighted by comments made by former attorney-general Malik Muhammad Qayyum in a television interview, also offers some key lessons. The chaos we could find ourselves in arises from the appointment of a chief justice whose legitimacy was under doubt. This act by former President Musharraf – who himself has been summoned to appear before the apex court and has yet to decide if he will choose to do so – has created a bundle of problems which continue long after Musharraf and Dogar departed from the scene.

The episode we are now seeing throws up a reminder of the need for the executive to steer clear of intervention in the courts. The emphasis placed by constitutionalists on the need for a separation between the institutions of state exists for a very good reason. What we need now are measures to put this into effect. There must be no further tampering with the judiciary or attempts to elevate persons within it for personal motives. The legal and constitutional status of retired chief justice Dogar is also being questioned. Now is the time for a serious discussion to be opened up on ways to safeguard judicial independence. This measure can do a great deal to safeguard stability within the state and prevent the chaos we have repeatedly seen erupting within it when institutions clash.

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Suicide alert
Wednesday, July 29, 2009


The discovery of around a dozen young suicide bombers in Mingora, who have now been taken into custody, exposes just how widespread such recruitment and training is. There are, no doubt, other such would-be-bombers in Waziristan, southern Punjab and possibly in other places as well. The authorities have stated the young boys whom the Taliban had apparently intended to use to stage terrorist attacks would be offered rehabilitation and vocational training. This is a sensible measure, but it needs to be replicated on a bigger scale. Other teenage victims of militant forces need also to be rescued. In madressahs across Punjab and Sindh there are boys who tell stories of attempts to persuade them to wage ‘jihad’. In some cases mere children have been taken away for just such a purpose without parental consent.

This all must be stopped – but to do so effectively we will need to go beyond the recovery of young bombers from the hands of the militants. We must ask why and how they landed up there. The answers lie in issues of economic deprivation, social injustice, unemployment and desperation. It is these factors, above all else, which drive young people into the hands of the militants. Those who carry out recruitment for them have also specialized in exploiting the frustrations that arise from these realities of life. All the bombers taken into custody in Mingora belong to impoverished families and hence it is the failure of the state to address the basic needs of citizens that has made us so vulnerable to the terrorist scourge. Now that at least some success against the militants has been achieved in Swat and elsewhere, it is time also to open up discussion on the issues that underlie terrorism. So far, there has been little talk of the need for policy reform aimed at ensuring people’s basic needs are met; no party – not even the ANP which campaigned on a platform of rights for people – has meaningfully raised this issue in the assemblies. This must change if we are in the future to escape suicide bombings.