ECONOMIC CHALLENGES FACING PAKISTAN
DR. ISHRAT HUSAIN


There is almost a consensus that the major economic challenges facing
Pakistan are rising poverty and unemployment, heavy external and domestic
indebtedness, high fiscal deficit and low investment. The debate has so therefore
focussed on the means to face these challenges and particularly on the ways to bring
about economic recovery.
The current debate about economic recovery in Pakistan has surprisingly
boiled down to a number of simplified observations. A group of commentators place
the blame squarely at the doors of the IMF and World Bank and this Government’s
sense of docility, submissiveness and helplessness against this powerful instrument
of Western (read: American) domination. Another group of ever dissatisfied and
perpetually critical writers who find every Government to be inept, attribute
malafide motives and lack of decisiveness in taking bold measures. A third group of
well-intentioned and economically literate observers, provide partial solutions
which make perfect sense if each is taken in isolation but can break the back of the
proverbial camel if they are lumped together. I would submit that there are no easy
solutions and the decisions made in choosing any one of the possible options involve
trade offs and choices, which in turn will create a different set of winners and losers.
I will like to focus today on a question which is uppermost on every body’s
mind: why have not things improved during the last 15 months according to
popular expectations?
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First the decade of 1990s was a lost decade as far as Pakistan’s economic
development was concerned. Frequent political changes and lack of continuity in
policies, poor governance and the last May 1998 developments had together created
very difficult economic conditions in the country by October, 1999. Per Capita
economic growth rates had slided to 1 – 1.5 percent Investment rates had declined
from 20 to 15 percent of GDP, poverty had doubled from 17 to 34 percent, external
debt had doubled from $ 18 billion to $ 36 billion, debt servicing had risen to a level
where it claimed 56 percent of revenues, fiscal deficits were averaging about 6
percent of GDP, Development expenditures, particularly on education and health,
were curtailed by one half from 6 percent of GDP to 3 percent. In 1996 Pakistan
was declared the second most corrupt nation in the world. The challenge of
averting this slide and move the economy out of such critical conditions therefore
was extremely daunting. The task was made even more difficult by the initial
reaction of the international community to the change in the government and the
conflicting demands of various segments of population. Accountability, whereby all
those found guilty of corruption and malpractices in the past, was one of the major
demands articulated by the public at large and the media. But this created a
tension with the objective of economic revival as the businessmen and bankers felt
threatened by such moves.
The lingering dispute with Hubco had during the preceding three years,
damaged the investor friendly image of Pakistan. Foreign currency deposits of nonresident
Pakistanis had been frozen in May, 1998 and had antagonized this
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important class of investor. Thus investor sentiment did not take a turn for better
and domestic and foreign investment which are key for economic revival did not
flow in to the levels we had expected.
Second, we have to decide as to whose expectations we are talking about.
Pakistan’s credibility was quite low both externally and particularly among the
International Financial Institutions and also domestically with the general public.
This Government had to make a policy decision whether it will seek assistance from
the International Financial Institutions or not. Until June 2000, the country was
able to manage its finances without any recourse to International Financial
Institutions. We serviced our debt and external obligations on time. We liberalized
our foreign exchange regime and restored the conditions prevailing before May
1998 without receiving any assistance from abroad. The exchange rate remained
stable without any major volatility. Interest rates were lowered by 4 percentage
points. Despite this, domestic investors remained shy, private sector demand for
credit was insignificant and the overall pace of economic activity did not pick up to
make any dent in unemployment which had risen during the last three to four years.
The most difficult challenge faced by the country today in the short term is
external liquidity problem i.e., the ability to meet its current obligations such as
imports of goods and services and meet all debt service obligations at the same time.
There is a gap between external receipts and external payments of about $ 2.5-3
billion annually for the next few years. To meet this gap Pakistan has to reschedule
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its debt service obligations and find ways to obtain new concessional loans after
curtailing its expenditures and maximizing its revenues.
Those who accuse the present economic managers of toeing the lines of the
IMF, being totally submissive to their dictates and (in the eyes of some) acting as
agents of these institutions forget a simple fact : Pakistan has had more than half-a
dozen economic managers during the past 10 years, and some of them were
popularly elected politicians, others were technocrats or former bureaucrats who
had no past relationship whatsoever with the IMF or the World Bank.
Unfortunately they had to enter into as many as 11 agreements with IMF during
past 10 years, had to follow the same course of action and the same policy
prescriptions, even at the time when we did not have the urgent need to reschedule
Pakistan’s external debt. These managers also had the luxury of using foreign
currency deposits of residents and non-residents to finance the external deficit. They
borrowed short-term commercial loans to build up reserves. I am not trying to be
defensive but am laying out the facts that since May, 1998, the country has lost one
important source of external liquidity i.e., foreign currency deposits. This
Government has decided not to borrow short-term commercial debt for building up
reserves. Home remittances through official channels are down by $ 500 million
annually compared to the pre-May 1998 period. Foreign investment flows are down
to less than $ 400 million compared to average flows of $ 1 billion. Oil import prices
have shot up from $ 14-15 barrel to $ 28-$ 30 barrel and the oil import bill has
doubled from $ 1.3 billion to $ 2.6 billion in just one year. During the first half of
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the current fiscal year, we have already imported oil worth $ 1.7 billion. Despite the
15-20 per cent increase in volume of our textile exports, the unit value of our
exports are down by 7-10 per cent on average. In this scenario, how can any one
keep the wheel of the economy moving in an orderly manner without recourse to
relief or injection by the International Financial Institutions. Japan and other
bilateral donors have also not come to our help as they had before May 1998.
No economic manager worth his grain will like to have his hands tied down
by external agencies, while he has to deliver according to the expectations of
domestic constituents. The sooner we are able to ween ourselves off the IMF
programmes the more liberated will be the economic managers of this country in
pursuing an independent course of action, which balances the interests of the
common man, the requirements of the global economy and, at the same time,
follow a prudent growth – oriented set of policies. It is not that we are not
committed to macro economic stabilization or removal of distortions from the
economy. But we need the flexibility to do so. I can assure this audience that the
present global environment in which we are expected to produce instantaneous
results is highly constrained and does not allow much room for maneuver.
As the debt rescheduling period was coming to an end in December 2000,
and the Government’s capacity to fully service its external debt had not improved
during the last 2 1/2 years period there were two options available – unilateral
moratorium or further rescheduling. The option of unilateral repudiation or
moratorium would have caused such enormous hardships for the country that it
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would have been simply unbearable. How many of us could have tolerated the
prospect of PIA planes being seized at international airports, the requirement that
all our imports must be paid for in cash and the inflation rates running at 30-40
percent with scarcities and rationing all around. I do not think any Government
would like its citizens to go through this scenario. We therefore rejected this option
as we came to the conclusion that the situation would have been far worse and the
overall suffering to the population would have been more severe.
The second option of approaching the IMF has been severely criticised.
Many learned commentators have questioned why the economic team had to yield
to all the conditionalities imposed by the IMF. Why did not the country negotiate
softer conditions? As I mentioned our only motivation for entering into an
agreement with the IMF was to secure rescheduling of Pakistan’s external debt.
To retain its reputation as a vigilant watch dog, the IMF insisted, before
reaching an agreement, on tougher measures and upfront actions from the
government as we had displayed a poor track record in the past. Their management
was of the view that Pakistan had very low credibility as successive governments
had agreed on a number of conditions but these were either not fulfilled or partially
fulfilled. They wanted the present government to implement all those conditions as
prior actions before they could take the loan proposal to their Board. These prior
actions consisted of the free float of rupee, (without intervention by the State Bank
of Pakistan), agriculture income tax, GST on retail trade, GST on services,
deregulation of petroleum imports, linking domestic POL prices to international
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prices, increase in consumer prices of gas, adjustment in electricity prices, widening
of the tax base, removal of the subsidies. Naturally the Government had little
choice – if it did not take these actions an agreement with the IMF could not be
reached and thus rescheduling would not have been possible. In other words, we
had to make up for our past lapses – all in one go. There are many on-going time
bound conditions that have to be met during the next 9 months, which are structural
in nature such as privatisation, restructuring of public corporations, financial
sector reforms and civil service reforms. While the fulfilment of these prior
conditions and conclusion of agreement with the IMF has restored the credibility of
Pakistan vis-a-vis International Financial Institutions, Paris Club and G-7
Governments and improved the market sentiment among credit rating agencies and
fund managers abroad, I must confess that it has not been widely welcomed
domestically.
The reasons for this domestic reaction are understandable. There has been
very little investment in the country for the past several years with the result that
unemployment has been rising. Fixed income groups – salaried class, pensioners
etc., have not been granted any relief in the form of salary adjustments.
Depreciation of the Rupee in the last several years has made imported goods and
inputs quite expensive. Public sector investment has declined from 6% of GDP to
3% and lack of adequate tax revenues made it impossible to increase public
spending and offset the slack created by low private investment. Government’s
highly desirable tax survey and documentation would widen the tax base and bring
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in additional revenues but not immediately as it will take some time to complete the
process and show results. The first year was devoted to get this survey accepted and
put in place. In the meanwhile, those who were profiting from the untaxed black
economy are running scared of documentation, finding ways to dodge the survey
and withdrawing from economic activity. Thus trade, services, real estate,
construction and transportation which were the main beneficiaries of untaxed
income, are under severe strain. The businessmen who were habitual defaulters of
bank loans are being asked to pay back. Tax payers who were registered but were
evading taxes, are also finding it hard to find secure avenues for concealing their
incomes and have thus slowed down their business activities. Utility companies have
embarked on a vigorous campaign to detect theft of electricity and gas and recover
dues from users. These structural changes during a short period of 12-14 months
have altered the basic calculus of profitability and the sharing of costs and benefits
between private businesses and the public exchequer. In the past, a large part of
private investment including the equity of sponsors and profits were generated by
obtaining loans from nationalised commercial banks and DFIs, which were seldom
repaid in full, by evading taxes, concealing income and by underpayment to utility
companies. Under these arrangements, the costs were borne by the public exchequer
and the benefits accrued to those private businesses that indulged in these practices.
Let me hasten to add that it is far from my intention to suggest that all businessmen
were guilty of this malfeasance. Far from it, the majority of the businessmen want
to work honestly. Neither do I wish to ignore the fact that this state of affairs was
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taking place without the active connivance of public servants, tax officials, utility
company employees and the staff of banks and DFIs. The point which I wish to
make is that the post October 1999 period has witnessed, to some extent, a reversal
of this past trend, however, this has been accompanied by a slow down in the
desired pace of economic activity in the untaxed and informal sectors of the
economy.
This does not mean that there has been no movement on the investment
front. The three areas where investment activities are most brisk are Oil and Gas,
I.T. and Textiles. Oil and Gas is highly capital intensive and thus the spill over
effects to the rest of the economy will remain limited until such time that gas
replaces fuel oil in power generation, cement and other industries. I. T. is highly
skill intensive and is still in its infancy. It will create some employment opportunities
for skilled and educated manpower both within the country and outside, but the
overall impact on employment will again not be not very significant. Software
exports are starting from such a low base that even 100% growth is unlikely to
make much of a difference initially. The majority of young men and women in this
country have obtained their higher degrees in Liberal Arts and Humanities with
very few marketable skills – naturally they are not going to benefit. Textile industry
is undergoing balancing, modernisation and replacement with the revival of a few
sick and closed units. This industry will no doubt record productivity improvement
as a result of this investment but will use the existing labour force without any
demand for new labour. It is thus obvious that while investment is taking place in
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some areas, its impact on overall employment, exports or import substitution in the
short-term is likely to be limited. Although this will lay the foundation for a
diversified economy in the future, but in the short run, the urban areas where most
of the vocal elements reside, will not notice any perceptible improvement in their lot
immediately.
The other area where substantial income generation has taken place during
the last one year is in the agriculture sector. Bumper crops of wheat, rice and cotton,
concomitant with higher producer prices, have transferred almost Rs. 100 billion to
the rural areas. As most of the poor live in the rural areas, this transfer of
purchasing power through higher demand for labour and the higher prices for cash
crops and consumable products, has improved the well being of the rural
population. This rise in rural incomes is beginning to translate itself in higher
demand for consumer goods, agro-related inputs and equipment, and some durable
goods. But the vagaries of weather and shortage of irrigation water this year may
force the rural population to save some of their earnings as a precautionary
measure to cope with the uncertainty of the future. In some districts, the Poverty
Alleviation program is creating some employment for landless labour. But in the
context of Pakistan, the rural population has always remained a silent majority –
suffering quietly in bad times and living contentedly in good days. They do not fill in
the op-ed pages of our leading newspapers and magazines, they do not make the
rounds at the reception and dinner party circuits, and they do not articulate their
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opinions forcefully and vehemently. So they aren’t heard either in the corridors of
power or in the spheres of opinion making.
Thus in this overall atmosphere of basic structural transformation, the
implementation of conditionalities such as price increases in POL products, gas,
electricity, transport, increase in prices of imported goods such as sugar due to
depreciation of rupee, has not been well received well. If public sector expenditures
and development projects were being initiated at the same time to give a kick start
to revive the economy, then these conditions would have been perceived in a
different light. But this Government is unable to do so because it has to meet the
fiscal deficit target. Many public sector corporations and enterprises have to lay off
excess workers (who were employed by the previous governments) to become
financially viable. These policies, which have been welcomed by the International
Financial Institutions, are naturally unpopular among the domestic constituents
particularly those living in the big cities.
The second important reason as to why there is a gap between popular
expectations and actual results, is that key economic institutions which are
entrusted with the implementation of economic policies, are either unable or slow
to deliver. They have been depleted of the competence, integrity and dedication of
their staff. Most of these institutions are in financial disarray and have been
saddled with non-professional manpower well in excess of their requirements. Top
appointments were made on the basis of personal loyalty rather than merit and thus
they have lost their direction and sense of mission.
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The implementation of policies in Pakistan by these institutions has therefore
been highly variable and uneven, as connections, sifarish and bribes had played the
decisive role in final decision making. It is difficult for them to adjust to a more
transparent and open system as it requires skills of a different kind – fact gathering,
analysis and objective assessment. As they are unable to perform on these lines this
particular class does not welcome changes and uses all possible pressure tactics
(including liberal use of print media) to resist against the encroachment of their
power and privileges.
Many of these key organisations such as CBR, WAPDA, Railways, Steel Mill
are being restructured and transformed into efficient, viable entities with the
objective of delivering the services to common man in a cost effective manner. But
this cannot be accomplished in a short period of time as the mind set, attitudes and
value system have to be changed. In the meanwhile, the general public has to pay
the price for their inefficiencies, corruption and suffer humiliation at their hands.
The present Government has directed that all appointments should be made on the
basis of a merit based competitive system through Public Service Commission
taking into account regional quotas. This new crop will hopefully enjoy a different
value system that emphasizes service to the people, dedication to the job and
integrity. But in the meanwhile we are stuck with the old value system.
Thus a combination of deliberate subversion and sabotage by the old guards
and the lack of professional competence and integrity with almost no regard for
public service, has slowed down the pace of implementation of many good policies.
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I must confess that despite all the deregulation and liberalization, the
bureaucratic hurdles and obstacles at the working level faced by the investors and
common citizen in their day to day operations are still considerable. The maze of
laws, regulations, rules and precedents under which our institutions operate, confer
enormous discretionary powers to those who are to interpret and apply these rules.
They can make you a millionaire or a pauper by a stroke of their pen. The redressal
process is slow and cumbersome. The hierarchy is rigid and too inflexible. The
supervision and oversight processes are weak and penalties for wrong doing or
harassment are very rare.
The third factor, which in my view is responsible for the gap between the
expectations and actual results, is the influence of unanticipated external and
internal developments. All economic projections are based on a set of initial
assumptions. As events unfold during the course of the year, some of these
assumptions are not validated and diverge significantly from the original thinking.
In our case, there have been three unanticipated developments. First, contrary to
our expectations, oil prices did not show any decline but continued to show an
upward trend touching $ 34 a barrel at one point earlier this year. This had adverse
repercussions on the balance of payments of the country and also in terms of the
periodic increases in domestic prices of P.O.L. products. As furnace oil is one of the
main feed stock for electricity generation, these price rises also impacted the
operations of WAPDA and KESC. The latter had to ration the supply of electricity
to its consumers and resorted to load shedding. The impact of oil price escalation
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was not limited to balance of payments or electricity generation but its linkage to
transportation created upward pressures on the prices of domestic traded goods
also.
Second, there has been a decline in the unit value of Pakistani exports. While
favourable domestic policies and aggressive entrepreneurs can bring about increase
in the quantity and quality of exportable goods, they have no control on the prices
they can fetch. These prices are determined in the international markets. The
narrow export structure under which two-thirds of our exports are cotton and
textile based, does not allow new and non-traditional exports to offset the
deterioration in the unit value of textile exports. While the cynics and pessimists
may keep on moaning about the lack of an exportable surpluses in the country the
fact is that the exportable surplus has been generated by the farmers and
businessmen of this country, but depressed world prices have not allowed this to be
translated into higher export earnings.
Another factor that has not so far helped us, is the non-resumption of
Foreign Direct Investment inflows at the levels we had envisaged. The Hubco
dispute has only recently been resolved, removing a long standing irritant to foreign
investors. Oil and gas and I.T. investments have just begun to be finalised and will
take some time to materalize. In the meanwhile there have been some
disinvestments for global strategic non-economic reasons which were beyond the
control of Pakistan’s economic managers.
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To conclude, the gap between expectations and the actual economic
performance can be explained by a number of factors but the constraint imposed by
global environment including the conditionalities of IMF, the inability of our key
economic institutions in implementing policies and unanticipated external
developments are the principal factors. This does not mean that we would like to
absolve ourselves of the mistakes we have made or you should ignore the
shortcomings in our decision making. But I can assure you that if this has happened
it is purely unintentional because our commitment and dedication to turn things
around for the betterment of the country is as strong and fierce as any one else's.

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“The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude.”