Decoding the raids
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Attempting to understand exactly what might be the significance of the increased US incursions into our airspace by drones and now manned aircraft is an imprecise art. There seems to be no agreement as to how many people were killed and injured in the course of three attacks. Perhaps six died and eleven were wounded in an attack in Kurram Agency in the early hours of Monday morning. Last Sunday there was an attack in North Waziristan which killed between 30 and 60 depending on which report you read. Last Saturday between 49 and 60 were killed in another strike in North Waziristan according to a spokesman for ISAF. Nor is there agreement between Pakistan and ISAF as to the number of incursions. What is startlingly clear is that a line has been crossed both literally and metaphorically – the Durand Line literally and the line which contained ISAF ground and air actions in Afghanistan.
During the last month drone strikes have increased as well, with reports in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday saying that this was linked to a complex plot to attack European cities. There have been about 20 drone strikes in the tribal areas this month alone, surpassing the previous high of 12 in January of this year. Adding together drone strikes and manned incursions a picture begins to emerge of an escalation of ISAF (American) activity against the militants they are fighting in Afghanistan. The area that militants here use is not confined to the thin strip of villages and outposts strung along the border; they have a presence right across the tribal areas. There is no published limit to how far ISAF forces may go in 'hot pursuit' -- indeed there is no published agreement between our government and ISAF that they are going to be allowed 'hot pursuit' anyway. The interior minister was evasive about the matter when questioned about it in the Senate on Monday -- refusing to confirm or deny if the government had a deal with the ISAF forces as to just how far inside Pakistan they were to be allowed to come. We have sent a demarche of protest to NATO headquarters in Brussels, saying that we may be 'constrained' to consider response options if our sovereignty is further violated. But what does it mean? Are our forces going to be ordered to shoot down American helicopters? Engage American troops on Pakistan soil? America, it seems, is going to fight its war wherever it wants -- and damn the consequences.
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Do the right thing
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
We are told that Monday's meeting of the PPP parliamentary party opted for a reconciliatory approach and the avoidance of further confrontation with the judiciary. Information released from the closed-door meeting chaired by President Zardari also says PPP lawmakers were asked to avoid making statements on the NRO, while President Zardari emphasised -- as he has before -- that the PPP had fought hard for democracy and had every intention of defending it. All this is familiar rhetoric. The facts though are simple; if it is to avoid a clash, the government needs to implement judicial orders on the NRO. Its foot-dragging has led us straight to the present crisis. As the president said, there are immense problems facing the nation which need attention. But if attention cannot be directed towards the problems, the fault lies squarely with the government and the actions it has taken to open up a front with the judiciary.
It is also far from clear that any genuine effort is on to ensure that the Constitution is adhered to and the disregard for the judiciary ended. News from behind the scenes, brought by Geo TV and other sources, is disquieting. We are told that during the meeting the president used harsh language against the judiciary. The crucial issue hinges on the NRO beneficiaries and the decision as to their future. Again, the omens are not good. Interior Minister Rehman Malik -- reportedly taking the line that he is not an NRO beneficiary at all -- has refused to resign. It is to be seen if he will be made to do so in the next few days. The intentions of the government will become clear during this time. The court has sought a full list of the NRO beneficiaries and made it clear that it is not focusing on just the president. It is obvious, however, that the cases against him are central to the matter. The issue is not really one of reconciliation or of putting in place measures to build confidence, as the PPP has portrayed the problem. It is really one of doing the right thing and the meeting did not address this. The PPP should have the courage to do so.
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Homecomings
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
People displaced by floods have begun returning to their villages in Sindh and Balochistan. Over the past few weeks, those in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa had in most cases already made their way back. While the homecomings are welcome, they have also highlighted the challenges that lie ahead. A key issue is that of livelihood and the extent to which people have been deprived of their ability to earn it. The massive loss of livestock and the destruction of crops are key factors in this. The question is what can be done for these people. The "Watan Card" scheme, introduced for the grants of Rs20,000 to the flood victims so they can at least begin the task of rebuilding lives, is said to be riddled with massive corruption. The service introduced by NADRA -- which allows people to SMS their identity card numbers to enable the organisation to ascertain if they are on the list of beneficiaries -- will not serve much purpose. To begin with, the victims in some cases lack identity cards and there are doubts over how many possess the ability and technology to access this scheme.
This issue needs more consideration. Means to ensure that people can get back on their feet need to be put in place from Swat down to Dadu. This is admittedly a massive task which the government alone cannot manage. While it can try to persuade international agencies and governments to help out, this assistance can come only if the government can first set up a mechanism to distribute aid equitably. It needs to come up fast with proposals that can help the maximum number of people. These people's very survival depends on their ability to generate enough cash, on an immediate basis, to buy the essentials they need; food, for one.